共查询到19条相似文献，搜索用时 109 毫秒
1.
2.
火山喷发会给人类带来灾难性的损失,影响火山灾害损失的因素众多,厘定这些影响因素之间的关系并确定他们对火山灾害损失影响的权重,对减轻火山灾害损失是十分必要的。本文选取了14个对火山灾害损失影响较为重要的因素作为研究对象,应用层次分析法构建层次分析模型,建立判断矩阵,计算出各个影响因素对火山灾害损失影响的权重。通过分析发现,自然因素对火山灾害损失影响的权重最大,除去自然因素外,社会因素和管理因素的下层因素中,火山预警系统对火山灾害损失影响的程度最大,说明做好火山预警工作对减轻火山灾害损失是至关重要的。 相似文献
3.
长白山天池火山是中新世以来多次喷发并造成严重灾害的火山。通过十几年的火山地质及火山地震监测研究认为长白山天池火山近期不会马上喷发，但它是一座具有潜在喷发危险性的活动火山，并提出建立长白山火山观测站的重要意义，讨论了天地火山密码的破译需要调动各方面有利因素和有利条件。 相似文献
4.
5.
6.
潘玉林 《地震地磁观测与研究》1996,17(6):71-74
文中讨论了我国火山灾害准确预报的可能性，对与火山灾害有关的一些重要问题，如高风险火山区的评估预测，火山灾害的预测评估的分期界定等进行了讨论。 相似文献
7.
8.
9.
长白山天池火山千年大喷发火山碎屑流分布范围广泛,是国内火山碎屑流领域重要的研究对象。前人研究表明：（1）长白山天池火山千年大喷发火山碎屑流搬运堆积机制复杂,且火山碎屑流近源、中源部分一般分布在人迹罕至尚未开发的地方,火山碎屑流相模式尚未系统建立;（2）火山碎屑流是长白山地区主要灾害类型,尚未有专题的灾害区划图;（3）早期粒度分析主要采用人工法测试,精度低,误差大,大量微米级碎屑的动力学信息流失。 相似文献
11.
The Campi Flegrei caldera is a restless structure affected by general subsidence and ongoing resurgence of its central part.
The persistent activity of the system and the explosive character of the volcanism lead to a very high volcanic hazard that,
combined with intense urbanization, corresponds to a very high volcanic risk. One of the largest sources of uncertainty in
volcanic hazard/risk assessment for Campi Flegrei is the spatial location of the future volcanic activity. This paper presents
and discusses a long-term probability hazard map for vent opening in case of renewal of volcanism at the Campi Flegrei caldera,
which shows the spatial conditional probability for the next vent opening, given that an eruption occurs. The map has been
constructed by building a Bayesian inference scheme merging prior information and past data. The method allows both aleatory
and epistemic uncertainties to be evaluated. The probability map of vent opening shows that two areas of relatively high probability
are present within the active portion of the caldera, with a probability approximately doubled with respect to the rest of
the caldera. The map has an immediate use in evaluating the areas of the caldera prone to the highest volcanic hazard. Furthermore,
it represents an important ingredient in addressing the more general problem of quantitative volcanic hazards assessment at
the Campi Flegrei caldera. 相似文献
12.
Deanne K. Bird Gudrun Gisladottir Dale Dominey-Howes 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》2010,189(1-2):33-48
This paper examines the relationship between volcanic risk and the tourism sector in southern Iceland and the complex challenge emergency management officials face in developing effective volcanic risk mitigation strategies. An early warning system and emergency response procedures were developed for communities surrounding Katla, the volcano underlying the Mýrdalsjökull ice cap. However, prior to and during the 2007 tourist season these mitigation efforts were not effectively communicated to stakeholders located in the tourist destination of Þórsmörk despite its location within the hazard zone of Katla. The hazard zone represents the potential extent of a catastrophic jökulhlaup (glacial outburst flood). Furthermore, volcanic risk mitigation efforts in Þórsmörk were based solely on information derived from physical investigations of volcanic hazards. They did not consider the human dimension of risk. In order to address this gap and provide support to current risk mitigation efforts, questionnaire surveys were used to investigate tourists' and tourism employees' hazard knowledge, risk perception, adoption of personal preparedness measures, predicted behaviour if faced with a Katla eruption and views on education.Results indicate that tourists lack hazard knowledge and they do not adopt preparedness measures to deal with the consequences of an eruption. Despite a high level of risk perception, tourism employees lack knowledge about the early warning system and emergency response procedures. Results show that tourists are positive about receiving information concerning Katla and its hazards and therefore, the reticence of tourism employees with respect to disseminating hazard information is unjustified.In order to improve the tourism sector's collective capacity to positively respond during a future eruption, recommendations are made to ensure adequate dissemination of hazard, risk and emergency response information. Most importantly education campaigns should focus on: (a) increasing tourists' knowledge of Katla, jökulhlaup and other volcanic hazards and (b) increasing tourist and employee awareness of the early warning and information system and appropriate behavioural response if a warning is issued. Further, tourism employees should be required to participate in emergency training and evacuation exercises annually. These efforts are timely given that Katla is expected to erupt in the near future and international tourism is an expanding industry in Þórsmörk. 相似文献
13.
V. N. Chebrov D. V. Droznin S. Ya. Droznina N. Z. Zakharchenko Yu. A. Kugaenko D. V. Melnikov V. N. Mishatkin Ya. D. Murav’ev I. N. Nuzhdina A. V. Rybin S. L. Senyukov V. A. Sergeev S. S. Serovetnikov N. N. Titkov P. P. Firstov V. V. Yaschuk 《Seismic Instruments》2013,49(3):254-264
This work presents the project of the first stage of implementation of the integrated instrumental system of volcanic activity monitoring in Kamchatka and the Kuril Islands. The system of monitoring was designed for the purpose of ensuring public safety, aviation safety, and reducing economic losses caused by volcanic eruptions. The most active and dangerous volcanoes in Kamchatka (North and Avacha groups of volcanoes) and the Kuril Islands (volcanoes on the islands of Kunashir and Paramushir) are of first priority for monitoring. For this purpose, special observation points are planned to be installed on the volcanoes. The system of monitoring will include a complex of observations (broadband seismic station with a large dynamic range, tiltmeter, devices for gas, acoustic, and electromagnetic observations, and video camera). All the data will be passed to information processing centers in real time. New methods and algorithms of automatic and automated identification of the volcanic activity level and the probabilistic volcano hazard assessment have been developed. 相似文献
14.
This paper presents an automatic system for the elaboration of volcanic hazard maps and scenarios. The methodology used for the generation of both maps is based on the use of numerical simulation of eruptive processes. The system has been developed in a Geographical Information System (GIS) framework, where models for the numerical simulation of different volcanic hazards have been integrated. The user can select in a toolbar one hazard and then decide whether to generate a scenario map (usually with a unique vent) or a hazard map (generally with a broader source area). Once the input parameters are selected, the system automatically generates the corresponding map. The system also incorporates a module to determine the spatial probability of vent opening, as this could be an important parameter for the computation of hazard maps. The tool has been designed in such a way that the inclusion of new numerical models and functionalities is rather easy. Each numerical model is programmed and implemented as an independent program that is launched from the system and, when it finishes the computation, returns the control to the GIS, where the results are shown. This structure allows that further analyses (specifically, risk analyses, that use as an input a hazard or a scenario map), could be also automated inside the system. Additional information, including tutorial and downloadable files can be found in www.gvb-csic.es. 相似文献
15.
HASSET: a probability event tree tool to evaluate future volcanic scenarios using Bayesian inference
Event tree structures constitute one of the most useful and necessary tools in modern volcanology for assessment of hazards from future volcanic scenarios (those that culminate in an eruptive event as well as those that do not). They are particularly relevant for evaluation of long- and short-term probabilities of occurrence of possible volcanic scenarios and their potential impacts on urbanized areas. In this paper, we introduce Hazard Assessment Event Tree (HASSET), a probability tool, built on an event tree structure that uses Bayesian inference to estimate the probability of occurrence of a future volcanic scenario and to evaluate the most relevant sources of uncertainty from the corresponding volcanic system. HASSET includes hazard assessment of noneruptive and nonmagmatic volcanic scenarios, that is, episodes of unrest that do not evolve into volcanic eruption but have an associated volcanic hazard (e.g., sector collapse and phreatic explosion), as well as unrest episodes triggered by external triggers rather than the magmatic system alone. Additionally, HASSET introduces the Delta method to assess precision of the probability estimates, by reporting a 1 standard deviation variability interval around the expected value for each scenario. HASSET is presented as a free software package in the form of a plug-in for the open source geographic information system Quantum Gis (QGIS), providing a graphically supported computation of the event tree structure in an interactive and user-friendly way. We also include further in-depth explanations for each node together with an application of HASSET to Teide-Pico Viejo volcanic complex (Spain). 相似文献
16.
The Changbaishan volcano is an active and considerably hazardous volcano located on the border of China and North Korea. This paper summarizes a series of geophysical surveys as well as seismological and volcano-observational networks around the Changbaishan volcanic area. We characterize deep structures related to the Changbaishan volcanic area. The prominent low-velocity anomalies and low-resistance bodies associated with the magma system under the Changbaishan volcano were detected in the crust and upper mantle, and high-velocity anomalies were imaged within the mantle transition zone,suggesting that the origin of the Changbaishan volcano is related to the subducted Pacific slab. However, there exist a few major obstacles for comprehensively elucidating the deep structure of the Changbaishan volcano as well as for the preparedness for and response toward future volcanic unrest and activity. It is essential to collect data from both China and Korean Peninsula to image the deep structure beneath the Changbaishan volcanic area. A multi-disciplinary approach comprising seismological investigations, deformation information from GNSS and InSar, and gravity and magnetotelluric surveying is a reliable manner for imaging high-resolution structures and fluid movement for the spatial distribution and variation of the volcanic magma chamber.An effective volcano-monitoring network system is considerably important to improve hazard assessments and characterize the potential future eruption of the Changbaishan volcano. 相似文献
17.
徐家围子断陷的主要产气层段为营城组火山岩段地层,所以研究该地层对寻找天然气藏具有非常重要的意义.本文利用丰乐地区的高分辨率地震资料、岩石物性资料、测井资料对下白垩统营城组火山岩进行构造精细解释,火山岩地震相及岩相分析从而进行储层预测,利用均方根振幅、瞬时频率能量及瞬时吸收系数能量等地震属性分析结合地震反演技术精细刻画火山岩储层.结果认为：均方根振幅、瞬时频率能量和瞬时吸收系数能量能较好预测火山岩相和储层物性;有利储层在反演剖面上表现为中低阻抗特征,中等密度;较好储层主要分布在工区的西部与中部. 相似文献
18.
A new method to calculate volcanic susceptibility, i.e. the spatial probability of vent opening, is presented. Determination of volcanic susceptibility should constitute the first step in the elaboration of volcanic hazard maps of active volcanic fields. Our method considers different criteria as possible indicators for the location of future vents, based on the assumption that these locations should correspond to the surface expressions of the most likely pathways for magma ascent. Thus, two groups of criteria have been considered depending on the time scale (short or long term) of our approach. The first one accounts for long-term hazard assessment and corresponds to structural criteria that provide direct information on the internal structure of the volcanic field, including its past and present stress field, location of structural lineations (fractures and dikes), and location of past eruptions. The second group of criteria concerns to the computation of susceptibility for short term analyses (from days to a few months) during unrest episodes, and includes those structural and dynamical aspects that can be inferred from volcano monitoring. Thus, a specific layer of information is obtained for each of the criteria used. The specific weight of each criterion on the overall analysis depends on its relative significance to indicate pathways for magma ascent, on the quality of data and on their degree of confidence. The combination of the different data layers allows to create a map of the spatial probability of future eruptions based on objective criteria, thus constituting the first step to obtain the corresponding volcanic hazards map. The method has been used to calculate long-term volcanic susceptibility on Tenerife (Canary Islands), and the results obtained are also presented. 相似文献
19.
龙岗金龙顶子火山空降碎屑物数值模拟及概率性灾害评估 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
空降碎屑物为爆炸式火山喷发产生的一种重要的灾害类型,数值模拟已成为一个快速有效地确定火山灰扩散和沉积范围的方法。本文根据改进的Suzuki(1983)二维扩散模型,编写了基于Windows环境下的火山灰扩散程序。通过对前人资料的分析,模拟了龙岗火山群中最新火山喷发——金龙顶子火山喷发产生的空降碎屑物扩散范围,与实测结果具有很好的一致性,证实了模型的可靠性和参数的合理性。根据该区10年的风参数,模拟了7021次不同风参数时金龙顶子火山灰的扩散范围,以此制作了火山灰沉积厚度超过1cm和0.5cm时的概率性空降碎屑灾害区划图。本文的研究可为龙岗火山区火山危险性分析和灾害预警与对策提供重要的科学依据。 相似文献