共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 640 毫秒
1.
Probabilistic earthquake hazard analysis for Cairo,Egypt 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Cairo is the capital of Egypt and the largest city in the Arab world and Africa, and the sixteenth largest metropolitan area in the world. It was founded in the tenth century (969 ad) and is 1046 years old. It has long been a center of the region’s political and cultural life. Therefore, the earthquake risk assessment for Cairo has a great importance. The present work aims to analysis the earthquake hazard of Cairo as a key input’s element for the risk assessment. The regional seismotectonics setting shows that Cairo could be affected by both far- and near-field seismic sources. The seismic hazard of Cairo has been estimated using the probabilistic seismic hazard approach. The logic tree frame work was used during the calculations. Epistemic uncertainties were considered into account by using alternative seismotectonics models and alternative ground motion prediction equations. Seismic hazard values have been estimated within a grid of 0.1°?×?0.1 ° spacing for all of Cairo’s districts at different spectral periods and four return periods (224, 615, 1230, and 4745 years). Moreover, the uniform hazard spectra have been calculated at the same return periods. The pattern of the contour maps show that the highest values of the peak ground acceleration is concentrated in the eastern zone’s districts (e.g., El Nozha) and the lowest values at the northern and western zone’s districts (e.g., El Sharabiya and El Khalifa). 相似文献
2.
The evolution of the expected earthquake losses in different Portuguese regions was studied in order to determine whether the natural regeneration of buildings could contribute to the mitigation of seismic risk, although the building exposure has increased over time in most analysed regions. To achieve this goal, five inter-related risk indicators were estimated, based on the Portuguese censuses’ surveys of residential buildings and inhabitants obtained in two different moments in time: 2001 and 2011. The FEMA (2008) approach was used to estimate the risk indicators, i.e., the Annualized Economic and Human earthquake Losses, either in absolute terms or normalised by building and population exposure. This study offers a perspective of the seismic risk in the Portuguese mainland, provides a comparison of risk levels between different epochs, and analyses the obtained results in order to compare the risk among Portuguese regions. It is important to mention that the comparison of economic losses based on the building stocks surveyed in 2001 and in 2011 took into account the Portuguese inflation rate in that time interval. The main findings of the study show that the natural regeneration of the residential housing stock contributes to the reduction of the expected seismic economic losses in Portugal, at an average rate of 14 % per 10 years, and to the reduction of the expected annualized human losses to almost one half after 10 years. The results support the conclusion that the natural regeneration of the residential housing stock contributed to the mitigation of the seismic risk in mainland Portugal, in the 10 year period under analysis, even though there was an increase of the building exposure in the region. 相似文献
3.
On 12 October 1992, an earthquake, magnitude mb = 5.9 and M s = 5.2, hit the City of Cairo, Egypt. It was this century's largest earthquake in northern Egypt with related destruction in the City of Cairo, the Nile Valley and the Nile Delta areas. Our source parameter determinations show that the 1992 earthquake had a normal faulting mechanism, seismic moment M o = 5.2 × 1017 Nm, centroid depth of 23 km and a source time function duration of 3 seconds. The mechanism is compared with those corresponding to two other events that occurred in the northern Red Sea. The similarity between the mechanisms as well as the spatial distribution of the geological faults around Cairo suggest seismic activity along the extension of the stress field of the Red Sea rift system to the area around the City of Cairo. This situation affects the level of seismic hazard in the Cairo area. The 1992 earthquake belongs to an unusual class of relatively small, M w > 6.0, yet destructive earthquakes. The damage caused by these events is usually attributed to their shallow focal depth, 5 km, and to amplification of seismic waves in the local soil beneath the damaged structures. However, the Cairo earthquake deviates from other events of this class since the focal depth was determined to be 23 km. We calculated synthetic accelerograms for the 1992 earthquake with the loose sediments observed in the Nile Valley, and show that this enhanced the amplitude of the acceleration by a factor of two. However, the determined accelerations, about 0.5 m s-2, cannot alone explain the relatively large amount of damaged structures. Hence, a major cause to the destruction is likely the poor state of construction of the Cairo buildings. 相似文献
4.
AMR W. SADEK 《地震工程与结构动力学》1997,26(5):529-540
The paper describes the damage statistics of the 12 October 1992 earthquake (Dahshur earthquake) that hit the greater Cairo area in Egypt and measured 5.4 on the Richter scale. Building sample consisted of 2270 buildings distributed in almost every district in the greater Cairo area and their characteristics cover a wide range of date of construction and structural systems. Structural and non-structural damage to buildings are presented as functions of date of construction, height and type of construction. It is believed that the information presented in the paper is of extreme importance to the engineering community as to the structural impact that the 1992 earthquake had on building stocks in the urban area. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
5.
Earthquakes have a greater effect on society than most people think. These effects range from structural damages to economic impacts and fatalities. An earthquake only lasts for a few seconds and the aftershocks may continue for days, but the damage does continue for years. Residential site safety and earthquake damage assessment studies play a crucial role in developing reliable rehabilitation and development programs, improving preparedness and mitigating losses in urbanized areas. The extremely densely populated metropolis of Tehran, which totals of 7,768,561 for 22 districts (according to the 2006 population census), coupled with the fragility of houses and infrastructure, highlight the necessity of a reliable earthquake damage assessment based on essential datasets, such as building resistance attributes, building population, soil structures, streets network and hazardous facilities. This paper presents a GIS-based model for earthquake loss estimation for a district in Tehran, Iran. Damages to buildings were calculated only for the ground shaking effect of one of the region's most active faults, the Mosha Fault in a likely earthquake scenario. Earthquake intensity for each building location was estimated based on attenuation relation and the ratio of damage was obtained from customized fragility curves. Human casualties and street blockages caused by collapsed buildings were taken into account in this study, as well. Finally, accessibility verification found locations without clear passages for temporary settlements by buildings via open streets. The model was validated using the 2003 Bam earthquake damages. The proposed model enables the decision-makers to make more reliable decisions based on various spatial datasets before and after an earthquake occurs. The results of the earthquake application showed total losses as follows: structural damages reaching 64% of the building stock, a death rate of 33% of all the residents, a severe injury rate reaching 27% of the population and street closures upwards of 22% due to building collapse. 相似文献
6.
生命线工程的震害及损失评估工作对于震害防御和震后地震应急工作有着极其重要的意义。 但是, 生命线工程是一个复杂庞大的网络系统, 目前对其开展的震害及损失评估研究工作存在着很大的局限性和不确定性。 本文充分利用研究较多且较系统的建筑物震害及损失评估结果, 结合历次典型历史地震震害中建筑物和生命线震害情况, 通过分析建筑物损失和生命线工程损失的数量关系, 建立二者之间的关联模型; 通过对人口、 GDP、 土地利用等公里网格数据进行分析, 给出中国大陆地区的分区分类原则, 建立分区分类的生命线工程地震直接经济损失分析模型; 基于GIS软件平台, 开发了生命线工程地震直接经济损失分析模块, 利用该模块, 得出了四川省不同地震烈度下的生命线工程直接经济损失空间分布情况。 相似文献
7.
The tectonic system of the eastern flank of Mt. Etna volcano (Sicily, Italy) is the source of most of the strongest earthquakes occurring in the area over the last 205 years. A total of 12 events with epicentre intensities ≥VIII EMS have occurred at Mt. Etna, 10 of which were located on the eastern flank. This indicates a mean recurrence time of about 20 years. This area is highly urbanised, with many villages around the volcano at altitudes up to 700 m a.s.l. The southern and eastern flanks are particularly highly populated areas, with numerous villages very close to each other. The probabilistic seismic hazard due to local faults for Mt. Etna was calculated by adopting a site approach to seismic hazard assessment. Only the site histories of local volcano-tectonic earthquakes were considered, leaving out the effects due to strong regional earthquakes that occurred in north-eastern and south-eastern Sicily. The inventory used in this application refers to residential buildings. These data were extracted from the 1991 census of the Italian National Institute of Statistics, and are grouped according to the census sections. The seismic vulnerability of the elements at risk belonging to a given building typology is described by a vulnerability index, in accordance with a damage model based on macroseismic intensities. For the estimation of economic losses due to physical damage to buildings, an integrated impact indicator was used, which is equivalent to the lost building volume. The expected annualised economic earthquake losses were evaluated both in absolute and in relative terms, and were compared with the geographical distribution of seismic hazard and with similar evaluations of losses for other regions. 相似文献
8.
A GIS-oriented procedure that may partially illuminate the consequences of a possible earthquake is presented in two main steps (seismic microzonation and vulnerability steps) along with its application in Tabriz (a city in NW Iran). First, the detailed geological, geodetical, geotechnical and geophysical parameters of the region are combined using an Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and a deterministic near-field earthquake of magnitude 7 in the North Tabriz Fault is simulated. This simulation provides differing intensities of ground shaking in the different districts of Tabriz. Second, the vulnerability of buildings, human losses and basic resources for survivors is estimated in district two of the city based on damage functions and relational analyses. The results demonstrate that 69.5% of existing buildings are completely destroyed, and the rate of fatalities is approximately 33% after a nighttime scenario. Finally, the same procedure was applied to an actual earthquake (first event on the 11th of August, 2012 of the Ahar twin earthquakes) to validate the presented model based on two aspects: (1) building damages and (2) seismic intensity. 相似文献
9.
基于云南省建水县的建筑物、人口数量、生命线工程、地形地貌等数据,选取地震灾害损失风险评估因子,利用评估模型对设定烈度下可能造成的人员死亡、房屋破坏、滑坡密度等进行计算,给出地震灾害损失定量评估结果。在传统风险评估方法基础上,对无法建立灾害损失关系的承灾体用风险暴露量来代替灾害损失量进行风险评估。最后应用极差变换法对地震灾害损失的不同因子进行标准化,通过综合赋权划分地震灾害风险等级。结果表明:建水县地震灾害高风险的乡镇有5个,主要分布在建水北部的曲江,南部的南庄、西庄、临安、官厅一带;中风险乡镇有6个,低风险乡镇有3个。 相似文献
10.
房屋建筑的地震易损性是地震损失评估和地震巨灾风险模型的基础。作为房屋建筑的重要组成部分,各类非结构构件的损失在现有的易损性模型中并未得到足够重视。本文以一栋典型钢筋混凝土框架结构教学楼为对象,通过将房屋建筑中的各类构件划分为具有不同地震损伤特性和损失后果的易损性组,考察建筑内的损失分布和非结构损失对房屋建筑地震易损性的影响。分析结果表明:由于许多非结构构件在中小地震作用下即可能发生较严重的破坏,房屋建筑在中小地震下的易损性主要受非结构损失控制;随着地震动强度等级的不断提高,结构损伤渐趋严重,结构损失对整体建筑易损性的影响不断增大;在结构进入震后不可修状态之前,建筑不同楼层的损失分布是评估建筑地震损失时不可忽略的因素。 相似文献
11.
Dipendra Gautam 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2018,16(10):4661-4673
This paper outlines the seismic vulnerability of rural stone masonry buildings affected by the 2015 Gorkha earthquake sequence. Summary of field observation is presented first and empirical fragility curves are developed from the detailed damage assessment data from 603 villages in central, eastern and western Nepal. Fragility curves are developed on the basis of 665,515 building damage cases collected during the post-earthquake detailed damage assessment campaign conducted by Government of Nepal. Two sets of fragility functions are derived using peak ground acceleration and spectral acceleration at 0.3 s as the intensity measures. The sum of the results highlights that stone masonry buildings in Nepal are highly vulnerable even in the case of low to moderate ground shaking. The results further indicate that in the case of strong to major earthquakes, most of the stone masonry buildings in Nepal would sustain severe damage or collapse. 相似文献
12.
2017年5月11日,新疆喀什地区塔什库尔干县发生5.5级地震。地震造成8人死亡、31人受伤以及财产损失,属于典型的“小震大灾”。按照一般的地震灾害损失快速评估方法,得到的评估结果与实际结果差别较大。为探讨评估结果偏离的原因,本文对不同地震损失评估方案进行比较分析,探讨了地震致灾性（地震影响场分布）、承灾体（人口）分布等因素对地震损失评估结果的影响。结果表明在此次地震快速评估中,基于宏观震中确定的地震影响场较微观震中更接近实际分布;地震烈度衰减的平均估计模型给出的地震烈度区面积明显小于实际面积;极震区存在抗震能力相对低的土木、砖木结构房屋,是造成该地震震级相对小而生命损失相对大的“小震大灾”的重要原因。对比分析结果表明,提高人口、房屋建筑等风险暴露数据的空间精准性,改善地震震中定位与地震影响场估计的准确性,将有助于提高地震应急损失评估的准确性。 相似文献
13.
The Cheliff region has experienced some significant earthquakes in the last century (1937, 1954, and 1980). The most destructive one is that of El Asnam on October 10, 1980, Ms = 7.3 (Io = IX), which destroyed the Chlef city (formerly El Asnam) and its surrounding villages. On December 16, 2006 a moderate earthquake (Mw = 5.0) hit the Cheliff region. The maximum observed intensity (Io = V: MSK-scale) was observed at Abou El Hassen, Benaria, Bouzghaïa and Tadjena. No damages or human losses were recorded. Nevertheless, minor cracks on walls of the old school at Tadjena were observed. The point source focal mechanism of the event was determined by inverting the waveforms of three regional broadband stations of the ADSN (Algerian Digital Seismic Network). It corresponds to thrust-reverse faulting with a strike-slip component. The stress tensor obtained by the inversion of the 15 focal mechanisms available in the Cheliff region exhibits a well constrained compression axis σ1 horizontal and trending N145°. The NW dipping nodal plane indicating a NE–SW thrust fault with a right-lateral component (strike, dip, rake = 249, 38, 137) is more compatible with the regional stress tensor than the steep dipping NNE-SSW nodal plane showing reverse faulting with a left-lateral component (strike, dip, rake = 15, 65, 60). Accordingly, the Tadjena moderate size earthquake can be related to the Boukadir active fault bordering the lower Cheliff basin to the north, a situation similar to that of the El Asnam fault bordering the middle Cheliff basin to the north. 相似文献
14.
本文在对西藏东南部各县的建筑类型、数量、易损性调查的基础上,对不同类型的建筑建立了模式类向量,使用三维图像模式识别技术估计了各类型建筑在西藏东南部各县市的数量分布,建立了不同建筑物的结构易损性和人口易损性模型,并且估算了西藏东南部各县在遭遇一次设定地震时的损失分布和基于危险性的未来50年可能的损失分布情况.本文研究表明,若曲松—桑日发生7.5级地震,可能造成拉萨、山南两市较重的人员伤亡,其中曲松县和乃东区伤亡最重.西藏东南部未来50年建筑地震风险最高的地区是拉萨市区、林芝市区和错那县,其中拉萨市区的建筑财产损失风险最高. 相似文献
15.
整理并分析汉中地区的地震背景、地震动参数和地质灾害,调查区域内地震动参数有差异的9类样本行政镇的931栋典型农村房屋,研究典型农村房屋的结构类型、抗震概念设计和建造场地等因素对房屋抗震性能的影响。结果表明:汉中地区地质构造复杂,深大断裂发育,94.7%的区域为灾害易发区,存在4个地震烈度异常区;农村既有房屋结构类型有土木结构、砖木结构、砖混结构和框架结构,其中砖木结构和砖混结构是主要的抗震结构类型,框架结构是新型抗震结构类型;区域内农村房屋的建造场地条件危险性大并且抗震概念设计不足,房屋震害严重,村民的工程地质和地震地质等相关知识匮乏。该研究可为村镇房屋的防震减灾工作提供参考。 相似文献
16.
本文从地震灾害、建筑物、人口、经济、抗震救灾等多方面出发，将自然属性与社会属性进行有效结合，对地震危险性、建筑物抗震性能等影响因素进行详细分析，构建城镇地震灾害风险评价指标体系，以张家口地区16个县区为例，采用专家-层次分析法，建立精细化地震灾害风险评估模型。研究结果表明，城镇建筑物抗震性能普遍较差，怀来县地震灾害风险最大，桥东区、蔚县、涿鹿县、桥西区次之，沽源县、康保县地震灾害风险最小，并对各县区地震灾害风险主要影响因素进行讨论，发现地震风险指数与地形结构、建筑物抗震性能具有相关性，评估结果可为城镇制定防震减灾规划提供依据。 相似文献
17.
文中主要探讨了由地震引起的天津市经济损失和生命损失的预测问题。首先阐述了天津市震害预测的 5个背景特点 :建筑物特点、地质条件特点、建筑场地划分特点、基本设防烈度特点以及地震烈度衰减关系特点 ,根据这 5个特点将天津市划分为含有 7种建筑结构形式的 4个区域的震害预测模式。在此基础上 ,分析了天津市地震经济损失模型和生命损失模型 ,考虑了时间因素 ,然后与1976年唐山大地震的实际震害结果进行了对比及修正 ,给出了天津市 4个区域的建筑物地震经济损失率模型、社会财富损失率模型和建筑物毁坏率模型 ,并给出了计算天津市建筑物地震经济损失、天津市国内生产总值GDP地震经济损失和天津市地震生命损失的表达式 ;最后 ,将天津市地区划分为2 85 8个震害评估单元 ,以近百年来在天津市区域内曾经发生的最大地震作为假想地震 ,预测分析了天津市建筑物地震经济损失分布和地震生命损失分布结果 相似文献
18.
基于粤港澳大湾区地震灾害风险评估的初步成果,分析了湾区城市群地震环境、承灾体分布和场地特点,提出了两种确定地震输入的设定地震原则,即潜在震源区设定地震原则和最大风险设定地震原则,按照这两种原则可以更加准确地进行城市群地震灾害风险评估。在前人工作的基础上,提出了考虑场地条件影响的地震灾害风险表达式,探索了适合三维模拟非一致激励地震动输入的建筑物和生命线工程灾害风险评估方法,提出了建筑物和生命线工程灾害风险评估中考虑场地影响的思路,为客观地评估城市群地震灾害和损失风险提出了可参考的建议。 相似文献
19.
Simulating time-histories and pseudo-spectral accelerations from the 1992 Cairo earthquake at the proposed El-Fayoum New City Site,Egypt 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Abd El-Aziz Khairy Abd El-Aal 《Acta Geophysica》2008,56(4):1025-1042
El-Fayoum New City represents one of the new urban settlements that are recently erected all over Egypt. Because seismic recordings
are not available, I used the stochastic method to simulate the largest damaging earthquake from the closest seismic source
to the proposed area of the city. To verify the method and its computed results in Egypt, a study termed “method verification”
was performed. I found that the October 12, 1992, earthquake (M
b
= 5.8) that occurred southwest of Cairo in the vicinity of the Dahshour region, at the coordinates 29.77°N, 31.07°E, is a
significant earthquake to the city. The parameters of the path from the hypocenter of the event to the city were taken into
consideration. To determine the site parameters, a shallow seismic refraction survey was carried out in the studied area.
Accordingly, I simulated time-histories and pseudo-spectral accelerations from the October 12, 1992, earthquake at the location
of seismic profiles. Finally, it is demonstrated that the site is characterized by high ground motion amplification factors,
producing a high ground motion acceleration value. 相似文献
20.
Earthquake risk assessment of lifelines 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
Kyriazis Pitilakis Maria Alexoudi Sotiris Argyroudis Olivier Monge Christophe Martin 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2006,4(4):365-390
This paper presents the RISK-UE methodology for the seismic risk assessment of utility systems (potable water, waste-water, gas system, telecommunication, electric power) and transportation infrastructures (port, airport, road and railway system). The proposed methodology provides a uniform basis for the reduction of the consequences of lifeline damages in urban areas and an efficient mitigation strategy and prioritization policies for pre-earthquake and post earthquake actions. A detailed inventory for every element at risk together with a reliable seismic hazard assessment, appropriate selection of fragility models, estimation of the “global value” and economical impact of lifeline damages and losses are the main steps of the proposed methodology. The consideration of European distinctive features of lifelines and utility systems in the construction of seismic scenarios and the proposition of fragility curves are among the basic aims of the proposed methodology. Different modules of the methodology were applied in seven pilot cities (Thessaloniki, Catania, Nice, Bucharest, Sofia, Barcelona, Bitola). We present herein few representative examples (case studies) in order to illustrate the methodology and to prove its efficiency. 相似文献