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1.
Li-Sheng Huang John McRaney Ta-Liang Teng Mark Prebish 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1979,117(6):1286-1300
By comparing seasonal rainfall data from the past 90 years with the occurrence of large (M6) earthquakes along an arid stretch of the San Andreas fault system in southern California, certain correlations have been observed. Most large earthquakes are preceded by a pattern consisting of a few years of below normal precipitation (drought) terminated by one or more consecutive seasons of heavy (above normal) rainfall. While this drought-above normal rainfall cycle can be seen at times other than prior to major earthquakes, it precedes, to varying degrees, all of the twelve M6 events. This new precursor evidence, when combined with other premonitory signals, may offer a helpful diagnostic measure that could be useful in earthquake prediction in arid regions. 相似文献
2.
V. I. Melnikova N. A. Radziminovich N. A. Gileva A. V. Chipizubov A. A. Dobrynina 《Izvestiya Physics of the Solid Earth》2007,43(11):905-921
The paper addresses the spatiotemporal development of the Kichera sequence of earthquakes of 1999 (more than 6000 events over the year) within the Kichera depression, terminating on land in the Northern Baikal basin; the series was the most intense of all earthquake sequences recorded in the Northern Cis-Baikal region (NCBR) since 1960. The spatial coordinates of earthquakes showed that the source rupture, originating in the area of the Kichera-Upper Angara interbasin mountainous isthmus, propagated in the SW direction toward Lake Baikal. Stresses in the sources of the two strongest shocks (Mw = 6.0 and 5.6) of the sequence were released along fault planes striking NE (normal type) and E-W (normal-strike-slip type). Focal mechanisms of aftershocks revealed the presence of differently oriented faults motions on which were controlled by a large rifting fault striking NE. The Kichera earthquakes are shown to have occurred under seismotectonic conditions dominated by NW-SE extension and to have been accompanied by active normal faulting promoting longitudinal growth of the Upper Angara depression and deepening of the Kichera depression. The seismotectonic strain rates calculated for the NCBR before and after 1999 were of the order of (0.1–1.0) × 10?10 yr?1, whereas their values were two to three orders larger during 1999. Thus, the Kichera earthquakes confirmed the high seismic potential of the NCBR and showed that this rift segment developed through growth of depressions and destruction of interbasin mountainous isthmuses. 相似文献
3.
A. V. Klyuchevskii 《Journal of Volcanology and Seismology》2011,5(1):53-59
Correlation analysis techniques were used to study variations in the annual rates N of completely reported earthquakes with energy class K ≥ 8 that occurred from 1964 to 2001 in the Baikal Rift Zone (BRZ), in three subregions within that zone, and in six areas.
This correlation analysis of samples of annual rates of earthquakes N with different observation periods revealed two statistically significant episodes of short-lived synchronization between
the seismic processes in the BRZ, in the late 1960s and in the late 1970s to the early 1980s. The 1970–1980 episode stands
out because of its duration and the highest correlation level; this makes it the dominant phenomenon in the Baikal Rift seismicity
synchronization. The observed synchronization episodes between annual rates of earthquakes show that the seismic process was
activated at about the same time in different subregions of the BRZ, thus producing short-lived coherent increases in seismicity
rates. 相似文献
4.
Western Sichuan is among the most seismically active regions in southwestern China and is characterized by frequent strong (M 6.5) earthquakes, mainly along the Xianshuihe fault zone. Historical and instrumental seismicity show a temporal pattern of active periods separated by inactive ones, while in space a remarkable epicenter migration has been observed. During the last active period starting in 1893, the sinistral strike–slip Xianshuihe fault of 350 km total length, was entirely broken with the epicenters of successive strong earthquakes migrating along its strike. This pattern is investigated by resolving changes of Coulomb failure function (CFF) since 1893 and hence the evolution of the stress field in the area during the last 110 years. Coulomb stress changes were calculated assuming that earthquakes can be modeled as static dislocations in an elastic halfspace, and taking into account both the coseismic slip in strong (M 6.5) earthquakes and the slow tectonic stress buildup associated with major fault segments. The stress change calculations were performed for faults of strike, dip, and rake appropriate to the strong events. We evaluate whether these stress changes brought a given strong earthquake closer to, or sent it farther from, failure. It was found that all strong earthquakes, and moreover, the majority of smaller events for which reliable fault plane solutions are available, have occurred on stress–enhanced fault segments providing a convincing case in which Coulomb stress modeling gives insight into the temporal and spatial manifestation of seismic activity. We extend the stress calculations to the year 2025 and provide an assessment for future seismic hazard by identifying the fault segments that are possible sites of future strong earthquakes. 相似文献
5.
The high likelihood of a gap-filling thrust earthquake in the Alaska subduction zone within this decade is indicated by two independent methods: analysis of historic earthquake recurrence data and time-to-failure analysis applied to recent decades of instrumental data. Recent (May 1993) earthquake activity in the Shumagin Islands gap is consistent with previous projections of increases in seismic release, indicating that this segment, along with the Alaska Peninsula segment, is approaching failure. Based on this pattern of accelerating seismic release, we project the occurrence of one or moreM7.3 earthquakes in the Shumagin-Alaska Peninsula region during 1994–1996. Different segments of the Alaska-Aleutian seismic zone behave differently in the decade or two preceding great earthquakes, some showing acceleration of seismic release (type A zones), while others show deceleration (type D zones). The largest Alaska-Aleutian earthquakes—in 1957, 1964, and 1965—originated in zones that exhibit type D behavior. Type A zones currently showing accelerating release are the Shumagin, Alaska Peninsula, Delarof, and Kommandorski segments. Time-to-failure analysis suggests that the large earthquakes could occur in these latter zones within the next few years. 相似文献
6.
A. G. Prozorov 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1988,127(1):1-19
Aftershocks or swarms indicate increase of the flow intensity in the vicinity of the initial earthquakes. By normalizing their number according to the dynamic range of the standard frequency magnitude distribution the increase or positive aftereffect property of the initial earthquakes can be compared for different magnitude intervals, periods of time or regions. After applying accurate formal algorithm of aftershock identification it is possible to study negative aftereffect of the main events (nonaftershocks) in the catalog.Negative aftereffect means decrease of the probability of successive events in a time-space vicinity of the main event, when the aftershocks are over. The negative effect is the most important part of the seismic cycle and seismic gaps approach. Global statistical test give high confidence level for the relative decrease in intensity of the flow of the events withM7 in the first 20–25 years after the events withM8 in their 1o-vicinities in the total time period under study of approximately 60 years. The decrease approximates 32% of the undisturbed intensity of the flow ofM>7 events in the vicinities.Self-similar negative aftereffect was observed 3–7 years after 6M<7 events, it totals approximately 18% of the undisturbed intensity. Another type of self-similarity of seismic regime, with respect to the negative aftereffect, is the decrease of probabilities of aftershocks with large magnitudes in aftershock sequences. When we have adequate dynamic range in the catalog for the study of this property, for example, for main events withM7 in the catalog with low cut-off limitM=4, the statistical significance of the negative aftereffect is clear. However, the absolute value of the effect is also rather small, about 10%, which means that in 90% of the cases the aftershock sequences do not experience lack of energy due to the main shock energy release and follow a standard magnitude distribution for earthquakes in the entire catalog.The small values of the negative aftereffect apparently indicate partial stress relase by earthquakes and may explain short recurrence time intervals after major earthquakes observed periodically in different places. 相似文献
7.
Result of the algorithm of earthquake prediction, published in 1982, is examined in this paper. The algorithm is based on the hypothesis of long-range interaction between strong and moderate earthquakes in a region. It has been applied to the prediction of earthquakes withM6.4 in Southern California for the time interval 1932–1979. The retrospective results were as follows: 9 out of 10 strong earthquakes were predicted with average spatial accuracy of 58 km and average delay time (the time interval between a strong earthquake and its best precursor) 9.4 years varying from 0.8 to 27.9 years. During the time interval following the period studied in that publication, namely in 1980–1988, four earthquakes occurred in the region which had a magnitude ofM6.4 at least in one of the catalogs: Caltech or NOAA. Three earthquakes—Coalinga of May, 1983, Chalfant Valley of July, 1985 and Superstition Hills of November, 1987—were successfully predicted by the published algorithm.The missed event is a couple of two Mammoth Lake earthquakes of May, 1980 which we consider as one event due to their time-space closeness. This event occurred near the northern boundary of the region, and it also would have been predicted if we had moved the northern boundary from 38°N to the 39°N; the precision of the prediction in this case would be 30 km.The average area declared by the algorithm as the area of increased probability of strong earthquake, e.g., the area within 111-km distance of all long-range aftershocks currently present on the map of the region during 1980–1988 is equal to 47% of the total area of the region if the latter is measured in accordance with the density distribution of earthquakes in California, approximated by the catalog of earthquakes withM5. In geometrical terms it is approximately equal to 17% of the total area.Thus the result of the real time test shows a 1.6 times increase of the occurrence ofC-events in the alarmed area relative to the normal rate of seismicity. Due to the small size of the sample, it is of course, beyond the statistically significant value. We adjust the parameters of the algorithm in accordance with the new material and publish them here for further real-time testing. 相似文献
8.
The distributions of discrete frequency, N, versus interoccurrence time, t (in days), of M 7 earthquakes in the Taiwan region during the 1900–1994 period, M 6 earthquakes in the north-south seismic belt of China during the 1900–1990 period, and M 5.5 earthquakes in Southern California, U.S.A., during the 1914–1995 period are studied through two statistical models (gamma function and exponential function). Results show that both the exponential function and gamma function can describe the distributions. However, the former is more appropriate than the latter. This indicates that the three time series of earthquakes have a significant component of Poisson processes, even though the tectonic conditions, the fault distributions and the size of the three seismic regions are different. 相似文献
9.
东北深源和浅源地震同步活动的地球动力机制 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：2
本文研究了东北大陆地区深源及浅源地震同步活动特征及构造特征,认为造成深浅源地震同步活动的地球动力是西北太平洋岩石圈板块的作用。西北太平洋岩石圈板块消亡于珲春地区上地幔内590km深处,导致了深源地震活动,同时又直接影响着内陆郯庐断裂带、松辽盆地边缘断裂带及其附近的浅源地震活动。 相似文献
10.
We study the static stress changes caused by moderatemagnitude earthquakes that occurred in Umbria-Marcheduring a seismic sequence which started on September3, 1997, with a ML 4.7 foreshock and consisted ofeight earthquakes whose magnitudes range between 5.0and 6.0. The earthquakes occurred on normal faultsstriking in the Apennine direction and dipping at lowangles towards the SW. The goal is to verify if stresschanges induced by each mainshock can explain theoccurrence of subsequent events. Our results show thatthe foreshock slightly increased the Coulomb stress onthe first mainshock fault plane. The distribution ofseismicity that followed the foreshock is clustered inthe area of Coulomb stress increase comprised betweenthe two faults which ruptured in opposite directionsduring the two largest shocks of September 26. Thelocations and the geometry of the three largestearthquakes agree well with the pattern of Coulombstress changes suggesting elastic interaction betweenthese faults. However, we were not able to model thewhole sequence of ML 5.0 events in terms ofCoulomb stress changes. The difficulties are due tothe similarity of fault plane solutions for eventslocated very close to each other and in the hangingwall of the mainshock rupture planes. Our results showthat normal stress changes agree better with thespatial pattern of the whole sequence of moderatemagnitude events. If previous ruptures unclamp thefault planes of subsequent earthquakes, fluid flow canplay a dominant role in promoting earthquakes duringthe seismic sequence. 相似文献
11.
The regularities in the radiation and propagation of seismic waves within the Baikal Rift Zone in Buryatia are studied to estimate the ground motion parameters from the probable future strong earthquakes. The regional parameters of seismic radiation and propagation are estimated by the stochastic simulation (which provides the closest agreement between the calculations and observations) of the acceleration time histories of the earthquakes recorded by the Ulan-Ude seismic station. The acceleration time histories of the strongest earthquakes (M W ~ 3.4–4.8) that occurred in 2006–2011 at the epicentral distances of ~96–125 km and had source depths of ~8–12 km have been modeled. The calculations are conducted with estimates of the Q-factor which were previously obtained for the region. The frequency-dependent attenuation and geometrical spreading are estimated from the data on the deep structure of the crust and upper mantle (velocity sections) in the Ulan-Ude region, and the parameters determining the wave forms and duration of acceleration time histories are found by fitting. These parameters fairly well describe all the considered earthquakes. The Ulan-Ude station can be considered as the reference bedrock station with minimum local effects. The obtained estimates for the parameters of seismic radiation and propagation can be used for forecasting the ground motion from the future strong earthquakes and for constructing the seismic zoning maps for Buryatia. 相似文献
12.
A. Zavyalov R. E. Habermann Dr. A. D. Zavyalov Ray E. Habermann Paul Reasenberg Chen Yong 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1997,149(1):129-146
In this paper we evaluate the present state of the seismic regime in Southern California using the concentration parameter of seismogenic faults (K
sf
,Sobolev andZavyalov, 1981). The purpose of this work is to identify potential sites for large earthquakes during the next five or ten years. The data for this study derived from the California Institute of Technology's catalog of southern California earthquakes, and spanned the period between 1932 to June 1982. We examined events as small asM
L
1.8 but used a magnitude cutoff atM
L
=3.3 for a detailed analysis. The size of the target earthquakes (M
M
) was chosen as 5.3 and 5.8.The algorithm for calculatingK
sf
used here was improved over the algorithm described bySobolev andZavyalov (1981) in that it considered the seismic history of each elementary seismoactive volume. The dimensions of the elementary seismoactive volumes were 50 km×50 km and 20 km deep. We found that the mean value ofK
sf
within 6 months prior to the target events was 6.1±2.0 for target events withM
L
5.3 and 5.41.8 for targets withM
L
5.8. Seventy-three percent of the targets withM
L
5.8 occurred in areas whereK
sf
was less than 6.1. The variance of the time between the appearance of areas with lowK
sf
values and the following main shocks was quite large (from a few months to ten years) so this parameter cannot be used here for accurate predictions of occurrence time.Regions where the value ofK
sf
was below 6.1 at the end of our data set (June, 1982) are proposed as the sites of target earthquakes during the next five to ten years. The most dangerous area is the area east of San Bernardino whereK
sf
values are presently between 2.9 and 3.7 and where there has been no earthquake withM
L
5.3 since 1948. 相似文献
13.
Zhao Genmo Diao Guiling and Yang Gangsheng Seismological Bureau of Tianjin Municipality Tianjin China 《中国地震研究》1997,(4)
According to tie records of seismic station networks of China's continent and Korea Peninsula and the historical data,the complete seismicity pattern was obtained for the first time.The seismic zoning was conducted by means of the cluster analysis method.The map's spatial distribution of seismicity from 1960 to 1994 shows that there are three strong seismic zones:the first one strikes in the NE direction,from the Jiangsu plain in China to the central Korean Peninsula; the second strikes in the NW direction,from the Bohai Sea,China to the southern Korean Peninsula; the third strikes in the NW direction,from the western Liaoning Province to Pyongyang.Most of earthquakes are located along these three zones,the seismic intensity is lower than that in the mainland,and exhibited the feature of fractured crust of a marginal sea basin. 相似文献
14.
Ali Osman Öncel Ian Main Ömer Alptekin Patience Cowie 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1996,147(1):147-159
We investigate the nature of temporal variations in the statistical properties of seismicity associated with the North Anatolian Fault Zone between longitudes 31°–41°E during the instrumental period 1900–1992. Temporal variations in the seismicb value and the fractal (correlation) dimensionD
c
of earthquake epicenters are examined for earthquakes of magnitudeM
S
4.5, using sliding windows of 100 consecutive events.b varies temporally between 0.6 and 1.0, andD
c
between 0.6 and 1.4, both representing significant fluctuations above the errors in measurement technique. A strong negative correlation (r=–0.85) is observed betweenb andD
c
, consistent with previous observation of seismicity in Japan and southern California. Major events early in this century (M
S
7) are associated with lowb and highD
c
, respectively consistent with greater stress intensity and greater spatial clustering of epicenters—both implying a greater degree of stress concentration at this time. 相似文献
15.
Spectral parameters have been estimated for 214 Petatlan aftershocks recorded at stations between Petatlan and Mexico City and between Petatlan and Acapulco. The spectral parameters were used to obtain empirical relations for the estimation of seismic moment from coda length and fromM
L
. Stress drops, using Brune's model, were calculated for these aftershocks. Six events with large stress drop are located within a previously suggested asperity, and seven more suggest a boundary zone at the intersection of the Petatlan and Zihuatanejo aftershock rupture volumes. Stress drops increase with increasing seismic moment up to 1020 dyne-cm but appear to be constant at greater moment values. The peak horizontal velocity times distance of aftershocks recorded near the coast and between the coast and Mexico City (30 to 270 km away), scales linearly with seismic moment, and predicts well the peak horizontal values of large (M
s
7.0) coastal thrust events recorded on rock sites at Mexico City. Peak horizontal velocity is a straightforward measurement, thus this relation allows us to evaluate expected ground motion between the Pacific coast and Mexico City from the seismic moment of subduction related earthquakes along the coast. 相似文献
16.
J. -R. Grasso F. Guyoton J. Fréchet J. -F. Gamond 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1992,139(3-4):579-605
A sequence of moderate shallow earthquakes (3.5M
L5.3) was located within the Vercors massif (France) in the period 1961–1984. This subalpine massif has been a low seismic area for at least 5 centuries. During the period 1962–1963, 12 shallow earthquakes occurred in the neighborhood (10 km) of the Monteynard reservoir, 30 km south of the city of Grenoble. The latest fourM
L4.0 earthquakes occurred in 1979–1984 either at larger distance (35 km) or greater depth (10 km) from the reservoir. Two triggering mechanisms are suggested for this sequence: (i) the direct effect of elastic loading through either increased shear stress or strength reducing by increased pore pressure at depth; (ii) the pore pressure diffusion induced by poroelastic stress change due to the reservoir filling.The weekly water levels, local balanced geological cross sections, and focal mechanisms argue for two types of mechanical connection between the earthquake sequence and the filling cycles of the Monteynard reservoir. The seismic sequence started with the 1962–1963 shallow earthquakes that occurred during the first filling of the reservoir and are typical of the direct effect of elastic loading. The 1979 deeper earthquake is located at a 10 km depth below the reservoir. This event occurred 16 years after the initial reservoir impoundment, but one month after the previous 1963 maximum water level was exceeded. Moreover the yearly reservoir level increased gradually in the period 1962–1979 and has decreased since 1980. Accordingly we suggest that the gradual diffusion of water from reservoir to hypocentral depths decreases the strength of the rock matrices through increased pore pressure. The transition between the two types of seismic response is supported by the analysis ofM
L3.5 earthquakes which all occurred in the period 1964–1971, ranging between 10 and 30 km distance from the reservoir. The three other delayed earthquakes of the 1961–1984 seismic sequence (M
L4 during the 1979–1984 period) are all located 35 km away from the reservoir. Based on the seismic activity, the estimates for the hydraulic diffusivities range between 0.2–10 m2/s, except for the first event that occurred 30 km north of the reservoir, the filling just started. The lack ofin situ measurements of crustal hydrological properties in the area, shared by most of the Reservoir-Induced-Seismicity cases, prevents us from obtaining absolute evidence for the triggering processes. These observations and conceptual models attest that previous recurrence times for moderate natural shocks (4.5M
L5.5) estimated within this area using historical data, could be modified by 0.1–1 MPa stress changes. These small changes in deviatoric stress suggest that the upper crust is in this area nearly everywhere at a state of stress near failure. Although the paucity of both number and size of earthquakes in the French subalpine massif shows that aseismic displacements prevail, our study demonstrates that triggered earthquakes are important tools for assessing local seismic risk through mapping fault zones and identifying their possible seismic behavior. 相似文献
17.
Most large earthquakes of magnitude 6.0 in California during 1852–1987 appear to show a southeast-to-northwest tendency of epicenter migration. This finding is consistent with earlier findings ofSavage (1971) for a relatively few large earthquakes along the west coast of North America, and ofWood andAllen (1973) for smaller events along the San Andreas fault in central California. The average speed of migration is approximately 130 km/yr, which is within the range of speeds observed for other major seismic zones in the world. The epicenter migration in California may be the result of some small but broad-scaled episodic strain changes associated with creep waves induced by magma injections at the East Pacific Rise and propagating northwestwardly along a broad transform boundary between the Pacific and North American plates at subseismogenic depths as proposed bySavage (1971). 相似文献
18.
The most complete and reliable data of strong (M
s6.5), shallow (h<70 km) earthquakes which occurred in the inner Aegean seismic zone have been utilized to describe its seismicity time variation during 1800–1986 by two independent statistical models. The first is a sequentially stationary model of seismicity rates which shows that intervals of low seismicity rate, lasting for some 37 years, alternate with high rate intervals of 8–12 years duration. The second model is a statistical model according which seismic energy released within 5-year time windows approximates a harmonic curve within a period of about 50 years. This model is in agreement with the notion that the time series of strong earthquake occurrences in the inner Aegean seismic zone consists of a random (shocks withM
s=6.5–6.8) and a nonrandom component (M
s6.9). Maxima and minima of the harmonic curve coincide with the high and low rate intervals, respectively. A model of regional stationary accumulation of thermal stresses along certain seismic belts and their cyclic relaxation may explain this periodicity. 相似文献
19.
A. V. Konovalov A. A. Stepnov D. A. Safonov A. I. Kozhurin A. S. Pavlov A. V. Gavrilov K. A. Manaychev D. Ye. Tomilev H. Takahashi M. Ichiyanagi 《Journal of Seismology》2018,22(4):943-955
An earthquake with the moment magnitude M w ?=?5.8 occurred in the middle part of the Sakhalin Island, Russian Federation, on 14 August 2016, at 11:17 a.m. UTC. The earthquake source was located west of the Central Sakhalin Fault Zone, which is considered to mark the boundary between the Okhotsk and Eurasian (Amurian) plates. Moment tensor solution of the mainshock as well as the configuration of aftershock cloud suggests that the earthquake was caused by slip on a SW-dipping reverse fault. For the first time for Sakhalin, we have got the felt reports unified in accordance with DYFI. We also analyzed observed PGA values and, based on them, produced shaking maps. 相似文献
20.
J. -R. Grasso 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1992,139(3-4):507-534
We review earthquake distributions associated with hydrocarbon fields in the context of pore pressure diffusion models, poroelastic stress transfer and isostasy theory. These three mechanisms trigger or induce seismic instabilities at both local scale (D5 km) and at regional scale (D20 km). The modeled changes in stress are small (1 MPa), whatever the tectonic setting. Each mechanism corresponds to different production processes. (1) Local hydraulic fracturing due to fluid injection induces seismic-slip on cracks (M
L3) within the injected reservoir through decreasing the effective stress. (2) Pure fluid withdrawal causes pore pressure to decrease within the reservoir. It triggers adjustments of the geological structure to perturbations related to the reservoir response to depletion. Poroelastic mechanisms transfer this stress change from the reservoir to the surrounding levels whereM
L5 seismic instabilities occur either above or below the reservoir. (3) Massive hydrocarbon recovery induces crustal readjustments due to the removal of load from the upper crust. It can induce larger earthquakes (M
L6) at greater distance from the hydrocarbon fields than the two other mechanisms.Due to the mechanical properties of the shallow rock matrices involved, seismic slip triggered either by mechanism (1) or (2), is a second-order process of the main elastoplastic deformation. for a minimum of 80% of commercially productive basins, most of the local deformation is reported as aseismic, i.e., there is no evidence forM
L3 earthquakes. Nevertheless, the induced stresses vary as a function of time in a manner that depends on the hydraulic diffusivity (i.e., permeability) of the reservoir and surrounding rocks. Because small earthquakes (M
L3) indicate changes in stress and pore pressure, monitoring of seismicity is a means of assessingin situ reservoir behavior.The less constrained seismic response to hydrocarbon recovery is the possible connection between local fluid manipulations, triggered earthquakes and major regional earthquakes. Positive feedback mechanisms suggest that the region of seismic hazard changes is much larger than the area where hydrocarbons are extracted. These observations and models testify that fluid movement and pore pressure changes (increase or decrease) play important roles in the mechanics of earthquakes and in the triggering of natural earthquakes. 相似文献