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1.
We propose a stochastic methodology for risk assessment of a large earthquake when a long time has elapsed from the last large seismic event. We state an approximate probability distribution for the occurrence time of the next large earthquake, by knowing that the last large seismic event occurred a long time ago. We prove that, under reasonable conditions, such a distribution is exponential with a rate depending on the asymptotic slope of the cumulative intensity function corresponding to a nonhomogeneous Poisson process. As it is not possible to obtain an empirical cumulative distribution function of the waiting time for the next large earthquake, an estimator of its cumulative distribution function based on existing data is derived. We conduct a simulation study for detecting scenario in which the proposed methodology would perform well. Finally, a real-world data analysis is carried out to illustrate its potential applications, including a homogeneity test for the times between earthquakes. 相似文献
2.
Derivation of different suspension equations in sediment-laden flow from Shannon entropy 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
In this study the well-known Rouse equation and Barenblatt equation for suspension concentration distribution in a sediment-laden flow is derived using Shannon entropy. Considering dimensionless suspended sediment concentration as a random variable and using principle of maximum entropy, probability density function of suspension concentration is obtained. A new and general cumulative distribution function for the flow domain is proposed which can describe specific previous forms reported in the literature. The cumulative distribution function is tested with a variety sets of experimental data and also compared with previous models. The test results ensure the superiority of the new cumulative distribution function. Further a modified form of the cumulative distribution function is discussed and used to derive the suspension model of Greimann et al. The model parameters are expressed in terms of the Rouse number to show the effectiveness of this study using entropy based approach. Finally a non-linear equation in the Rouse number has been suggested to compute it from the experimental data. 相似文献
3.
Víctor Leiva Antonio Sanhueza José M. Angulo 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2009,23(3):299-307
In this article, we develop a new model based on the Birnbaum-Saunders distribution that results to be both useful and practical
for environmental sciences. The density, distribution and hazard functions, moments and properties of this new model are presented.
A graphical analysis of the density is also provided. Furthermore, we estimate parameters, propose asymptotic inference and
discuss influence diagnostics by using likelihood methods for the new distribution. An illustrative example with real data
related to water quality indicates the adequacy on the new distribution. 相似文献
4.
A new approach to the problem of site seismic hazard analysis is proposed, based on intensity data affected by uncertainties. This approach takes into account the ordinal and discrete character of intensities, trying to avoid misleading results due to the assumption that intensity can be treated as a real number (continuous distribution estimators, attenuation relationships, etc.). The proposed formulation is based on the use of a distribution function describing, for each earthquake, the probability that site seismic effects can be described by each possible intensity value. In order to obtain site hazard estimates where local data are lacking, the dependence of this distribution function with the distance from the macroseismic epicenter and with epicentral intensity is examined. A methodology has been developed for the purpose of combining such probabilities and estimating site seismicity rates which takes into account the effect of uncertainties involved in this kind of analysis. An application of this approach is described and discussed. 相似文献
5.
Albert MOLINAS 《国际泥沙研究》2003,18(3)
A new method based on the Transport Capacity Fraction (TCF) concept is proposed to compute the fractional transport rates for nonuniform sediment mixtures in sand-bed channels. The TCF concept is derived from the understanding that the measurements and predictions of bed-material load are more accurate and reliable than the measurements and predictions of fractional loads. First the bed-material load is computed using an appropriate equation, then the fractional transport rates are determined by distributing the bed-material load into size groups through a transport capacity distribution function. For the computation of bed-material loads, the Ackers and White, Engelund and Hansen, and Yang equations are used in this study. Two new transport capacity distribution functions are developed for flows in sand-bed channels. The new expressions presented in this paper account for the sheltering and exposure effects that exist in mixtures. Comparisons with measured data show that the proposed method can signifi 相似文献
6.
真振幅成像是一种代表性的定量估计模型参数扰动高波数部分的地震波成像方法.经典的真振幅成像方法在高频近似和理想照明假设条件下求取显式对角Hessian逆矩阵作为偏移振幅加权算子,用以校正波传播过程中的几何扩散效应,得到模型参数扰动的带限估计.真振幅保真成像方法在利用逆时偏移（RTM）框架实现时会产生低波数噪声,影响对高波数参数估计的精度.本文给出了一种新的基于RTM框架的真振幅保真成像条件,该成像条件针对反射波数据,在高频近似下散射模式对应正问题及Bayes反问题框架下导出.与传统基于高频渐进反演的波动方程成像方法类似,利用本文提出RTM成像条件能够保证计算结果与高频近似下反演结果的一致性.同时,利用本文提出RTM真振幅成像条件能够在成像过程中自动保真的消除传统真振幅RTM算法中存在低波数噪声,模型数值实验结果验证了本文方法的正确性和有效性. 相似文献
7.
8.
Alexander Ruzmaikin Anvar Shukurov Dmitry Sokoloff Sergey Starchenko 《地球物理与天体物理流体动力学》2013,107(1-3):125-139
Abstract We propose a method of derivation of global asymptotic solutions of the hydromagnetic dynamo problem at large magnetic Reynolds number. The procedure reduces to matching the local asymptotic forms for the magnetic field generated near individual extrema of generation strength. The basis of the proposed method, named here the Maximally-Efficient-Generation Approach (MEGA), is the assertion that properties of global asymptotic solutions of the kinematic dynamo are determined by the distribution of the generation strength near its leading extrema and by the number and distribution of the extrema. The general method is illustrated by the global asymptotic solution of the α2-dynamo problem in a slab. The nature of oscillatory solutions revealed earlier in numerical simulations and the reasons for the dominance of even magnetic modes in slab geometry are clarified. Applicability of the asymptotic solutions at moderate values of the asymptotic parameter is also discussed. We confirm this applicability using comparisons with complementary asymptotic expansions and numerical simulations. In particular, this justifies application of the MEGA solutions to estimation of the generation threshold. 相似文献
9.
J. A. S. C. Jayasinghe M. Hori M. R. Riaz M. L. L. Wijerathne T. Ichimura 《地震工程与工程振动(英文版)》2017,16(2):297-309
In this study, a new method for conversion of solid finite element solution to beam finite element solution is developed based on the meta-modeling theory which constructs a model consistent with continuum mechanics. The proposed method is rigorous and efficient compared to a typical conversion method which merely computes surface integration of solid element nodal stresses to obtain cross-sectional forces. The meta-modeling theory ensures the rigorousness of proposed method by defining a proper distance between beam element and solid element solutions in a function space of continuum mechanics. Results of numerical verification test that is conducted with a simple cantilever beam are used to find the proper distance function for this conversion. Time history analysis of the main tunnel structure of a real ramp tunnel is considered as a numerical example for the proposed conversion method. It is shown that cross-sectional forces are readily computed for solid element solution of the main tunnel structure when it is converted to a beam element solution using the proposed method. Further, envelopes of resultant forces which are of primary importance for the purpose of design, are developed for a given ground motion at the end. 相似文献
10.
岩相信息能够反映储层岩性及流体特征,在地震储层预测中具有重要作用.常规方法主要利用与岩相信息关系密切的弹性参数定性或定量地转化为岩相信息.在实际应用中,弹性参数的获取主要基于叠前地震反演技术.而不同弹性参数的叠前地震反演精度间存在着差异,势必影响岩相的整体预测精度.本文提出对弹性参数进行加权统计来预测岩相.首先,基于贝叶斯理论,引入权重系数来调节弹性参数信息的采用量,构建出最终的目标反演函数;其次,考虑到勘探初期缺少明确的测井岩相信息,提出利用高斯混合分布函数来自动估算岩相先验概率;最后,根据输入弹性参数的取值,计算每类岩相对应的后验概率密度,将目标反演函数取最大后验概率密度时对应的岩相类别作为最终预测的岩相.新方法旨在减少弹性参数精度间的精度差异对岩相预测结果的影响,以期提高地震岩相的预测精度.模型与实际资料测试均表明该方法可行、有效且预测精度较高. 相似文献
11.
A new interpretative approach is proposed to interpret residual gravity anomaly profiles in order to determine the depth, the amplitude coefficient and the geometric shape factor of simple spherical and cylindrical buried structures. This new approach is based on both Fair function minimization and on stochastic optimization modeling. The validity of this interpretative approach is demonstrated through studying and analyzing two synthetic gravity anomalies, using simulated data generated from a known model with different random noises components and a known statistical distribution. Being theoretically proven, this new approach has been applied on three real field gravity anomalies from Sweden, Senegal and the United States. The agreement between the results obtained by the proposed method and those obtained by other interpretation methods is good and comparable. 相似文献
12.
A new method is proposed to interpret magnetic anomalies due to a thin dike, a sphere, and a fault like structure, where depth, horizontal location, effective magnetization intensity and effective magnetization inclination of a buried structure are simultaneously obtained. The proposed method is based on Fair function minimization and also on stochastic optimization modeling. This new technique was firstly tested on a theoretical synthetic data randomly generated by a chosen statistical distribution from a known model with different random noises components. This mathematical simulation shows a very close agreement between the assumed and the estimated parameters. The applicability and validity of this method are thereafter applied to magnetic anomaly data taken from United States, Australia, India, and Brazil. The agreement between the results obtained by the new method and those obtained by other interpretative methods is good and comparable. Moreover, the depth obtained by such a method is found to be in high accordance with that obtained from drilling information. 相似文献
13.
Hongjoon Shin Taesoon Kim Sooyoung Kim Jun-Haeng Heo 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2010,24(2):183-197
In this study, the parameter estimations for the 3-parameter generalized logistic (GL) distribution are presented based on
the methods of moments (MOM), maximum likelihood (ML), and probability weighted moments (PWM). The asymptotic variances of
the MOM, ML, and PWM quantile estimators for the GL distribution are expressed as functions of the sample size, return period,
and parameters. A Monte Carlo simulation was performed to verify the derived expressions for variances and covariances between
parameters and to evaluate the applicability of the derived asymptotic variances of quantiles for the MOM, ML and PWM methods.
The simulation results generally show good agreement with the analytical results estimated from the asymptotic variances of
parameters and quantiles when the shape parameter (β) of the GL distribution is between −0.10 and 0.10 for the MOM method and between −0.25 and 0.45 for the ML and PWM methods,
respectively. In addition, the actual sample variances and the root mean square error (RMSE) of asymptotic variances of quantiles
for various sample sizes, return periods, and shape parameters were presented. In order to evaluate the applicability of the
estimation methods to real data and to compare the values of estimated parameter, quantiles, and confidence intervals based
on each parameter estimation method, the GL distribution was fitted to the 24-h annual maximum rainfall data at Pohang, Korea. 相似文献
14.
叠前地质统计学反演将随机模拟与叠前反演相结合,不仅可以反演各种储层弹性参数,还提高了反演结果的分辨率.基于联合概率分布的直接序贯协模拟方法可以在原始数据域对数据进行模拟,不需要对数据进行高斯变换,拓展了地质统计学反演的应用范围;而联合概率分布的应用确保了反演参数之间相关性,提高了反演的精度.本文将基于联合概率分布的直接序贯协模拟方法与蒙特卡洛抽样算法相结合,参考全局随机反演策略,提出了基于蒙特卡洛优化算法的全局迭代地质统计学反演方法.为了提高反演的稳定性,我们修改了局部相关系数的计算公式,提出了一种新的基于目标函数的优化局部相关系数计算公式并应用到协模拟之中.模型测试及实际数据应用表明,该方法可以很好的应用于叠前反演之中. 相似文献
15.
In this paper, a new model for a single reservoir operation optimization is proposed. The proposed model can design the optimal operation policy of a reservoir with explicit consideration of drought duration. The authors model this problem by formulating a single-stage loss function as a function of both the reservoir release and drought duration. Thereby the expected loss per period which is calculated based on the above extended single-stage loss function is minimized in infinite time horizon on the basis of Markov decision process (MDP) theory. The reliability indices are estimated as expected loss per period for specified extended loss functions. Finally, the features of the proposed model are illustrated through numerical analysis. 相似文献
16.
H. Tatano N. Okada H. Kawai 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1992,6(2):123-134
In this paper, a new model for a single reservoir operation optimization is proposed. The proposed model can design the optimal operation policy of a reservoir with explicit consideration of drought duration. The authors model this problem by formulating a single-stage loss function as a function of both the reservoir release and drought duration. Thereby the expected loss per period which is calculated based on the above extended single-stage loss function is minimized in infinite time horizon on the basis of Markov decision process (MDP) theory. The reliability indices are estimated as expected loss per period for specified extended loss functions. Finally, the features of the proposed model are illustrated through numerical analysis. 相似文献
17.
对比分析了随机结构动力可靠度计算的三种估计算法.渐进展开法是基于Laplace算法对概率积分进行渐进估计的,此法通过计算最大被积分式值对应点,并将其代入概率积分的渐进估计表达式求解失效概率.由于概率积分的主要贡献来自于最大被积分式值对应点的周围,因此本文的重要抽样法假定重要抽样函数的最大似然值等于最大被积分式值对应点值.极值分布-泰勒展开法首先通过结构随机参数的极值分布函数给出失效概率的表达式,随后利用泰勒展开法对失效概率进行估计,其中采用中心差分法对极值分布函数的梯度进行估算.最后应用三种算法和Monte Carlo法对受高斯白噪声激励作用的单自由度随机结构进行了计算,结果表明三种方法不但运算简便,而且对比Monte Carlo法计算效率有显著提高. 相似文献
18.
The radial basis function （RBF） interpolation approach proposed by Freedman is used to solve inverse problems encountered in well-logging and other petrophysical issues. The approach is to predict petrophysical properties in the laboratory on the basis of physical rock datasets, which include the formation factor, viscosity, permeability, and molecular composition. However, this approach does not consider the effect of spatial distribution of the calibration data on the interpolation result. This study proposes a new RBF interpolation approach based on the Freedman＇s RBF interpolation approach, by which the unit basis functions are uniformly populated in the space domain. The inverse results of the two approaches are comparatively analyzed by using our datasets. We determine that although the interpolation effects of the two approaches are equivalent, the new approach is more flexible and beneficial for reducing the number of basis functions when the database is large, resulting in simplification of the interpolation function expression. However, the predicted results of the central data are not sufficiently satisfied when the data clusters are far apart. 相似文献
19.
为了提高AVO(amplitude versus offset)反演结果的精度和横向连续性,本文提出了一种新的AVO反演约束方法,该方法结合贝叶斯原理和卡尔曼滤波算法实现了对反演参数纵向和横向的同时约束.文章首先结合反演参数的纵向贝叶斯先验概率约束和反演参数的横向连续性假设建立了与卡尔曼滤波算法对应的AVO反演系统的数学模型,然后将该数学模型代入卡尔曼滤波算法框架,利用卡尔曼滤波算法实现了双向约束AVO反演.二维模型测试和实际数据测试结果表明,相对于单纯的纵向贝叶斯先验概率约束,双向约束能更准确地刻画参数的横向变化,得到更准确、横向连续性更好的反演结果. 相似文献
20.
Rainfall intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) relationships describe rainfall intensity as a function of duration and return period, and they are significant for water resources planning, as well as for the design of hydraulic constructions. In this study, the two‐parameter lognormal (LN2) and Gumbel distributions are used as parent distribution functions. Derivation of the IDF relationship by this approach is quite simple, because it only requires an appropriate function of the mean of annual maximum rainfall intensity as a function of rainfall duration. It is shown that the monotonic temporal trend in the mean rainfall intensity can successfully be described by this parametric function which comprises a combination of the parameters of the quantile function a(T) and completely the duration function b(d) of the separable IDF relationship. In the case study of Aegean Region (Turkey), the IDF relationships derived through this simple generalization procedure (SGP) may produce IDF relationships as successfully as does the well‐known robust estimation procedure (REP), which is based on minimization of the nonparametric Kruskal–Wallis test statistic with respect to the parameters θ and η of the duration function. Because the approach proposed herein is based on lower‐order sample statistics, risks and uncertainties arising from sampling errors in higher‐order sample statistics were significantly reduced. The authors recommend to establish the separable IDF relationships by the SGP for a statistically favorable two‐parameter parent distribution, because it uses the same assumptions as the REP does, it maintains the observed temporal trend in the mean additionally, it is easy to handle analytically and requires considerably less computational effort. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献