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1.
近40a西藏羊卓雍错湖泊面积变化遥感分析 总被引：11，自引：8，他引：3
羊卓雍错(以下简称羊湖)作为西藏高原三大圣湖之一和藏南重要的高原特色风景旅游景区,其具体面积众说纷纭.本文利用遥感和地理信息空间分析方法对1972-2010年羊湖面积变化进行了系统研究,并结合流域气象站资料对其原因进行初步分析.结果表明,1972-2010年湖泊平均面积为643.98 km2.1972-2010年羊湖面积呈波动式减少趋势,其中,1970s平均面积为658.78 km2,之后至1999年面积显著减少;1980s面积为636.55 km2;1990s为635.06 km2;1999-2004年面积有所增加;2004-2010年持续缩小,减幅为8.59 km2/a.湖泊空间变化特点是除了空母错和珍错两个小湖面积变化较小之外,羊湖整体面积呈现萎缩态势,其中东部嘎马林曲入口附近退缩程度最大,达1.62 km.流域气象站资料分析表明,湖泊面积和降水的变化波动存在显著耦合关系,降水变化是羊湖面积变化的主要原因;其次,流域蒸发量的明显增加,特别是2004年来连续较高的蒸发量是导致近期面积显著减少的重要原因,气温的升高进一步加剧了这一过程.羊湖的面积变化基本反映了西藏高原南部半干早季风气候区以降水补给为主的高原内陆湖泊对气候变化的响应. 相似文献
2.
Timothy M. Shanahan Jonathan T. Overpeck W. E. Sharp Christopher A. Scholz Justice A. Arko 《水文研究》2007,21(13):1678-1691
Historical changes in the level of Lake Bosumtwi, Ghana, have been simulated using a catchment‐scale hydrological model in order to assess the importance of changes in climate and land use on lake water balance on a monthly basis for the period 1939–2004. Several commonly used models for computing evaporation in data‐sparse regions are compared, including the Penman, the energy budget, and the Priestley–Taylor methods. Based on a comparison with recorded lake level variations, the model with the energy‐budget evaporation model subcomponent is most effective at reproducing observed lake level variations using regional climate records. A sensitivity analysis using this model indicates that Lake Bosumtwi is highly sensitive to changes in precipitation, cloudiness and temperature. However, the model is also sensitive to changes in runoff related to vegetation, and this factor needs to be considered in simulating lake level variations. Both interannual and longer‐term changes in lake level over the last 65 years appear to have been caused primarily by changes in precipitation, though the model also suggests that the drop in lake level over the last few decades has been moderated by changes in cloudiness and temperature over that time. Based on its effectiveness at simulating the magnitude and rate of lake level response to changing climate over the historical record, this model offers a potential future opportunity to examine the palaeoclimatic factors causing past lake level fluctuations preserved in the geological record at Lake Bosumtwi. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
3.
Using lake Stechlin in northeastern Germany as an example of a small groundwater‐feed lake without surface inflows and outflows, we estimated the temporal scales and the variability ranges of the net groundwater contribution to the lake water budget. High‐resolution water level measurements by a bottom‐mounted pressure logger provided the background for the estimation of the total lake water budget. This method has demonstrated reliability for estimation of lake level variations during periods ranging from subdiurnal to perennial. The typical amplitudes of the synoptic‐to‐perennial variability characterizing the groundwater climate of lake Stechlin are estimated by comparing the two subsequent years 2006 and 2007; one of these years shows an extremely high, and the other an extremely low, annual precipitation–evaporation balance. The net groundwater flow, estimated as the difference between the total water budget and the precipitation–evaporation balance at the surface, revealed synoptic effects of lake water exfiltration into the groundwater aquifer following strong precipitation events. Perennial variations between wet and dry years superimposed seasonal oscillations. The probable origin of the latter is seasonality in the groundwater level on the watershed, although the exact amplitudes are subject to further quantification on account of seasonality in the evaporation estimation error. The results emphasize the non‐stationary behaviour of groundwater flow on timescales shorter than climatic ones. The analysis yielded a net quantitative relationship between groundwater flow and water balance at the lake surface: The water level changes in the lake due to evaporation and precipitation are damped to 60% because of the lake–groundwater exchange by means of intermittent infiltration and exfiltration events. Assuming the remaining 40% of the surface water budget may potentially result in perennial water level variability, we estimated an effect of the precipitation decrease on the lake water budget as predicted by the regional climate scenarios for the next century. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
4.
滇池、抚仙湖、阳宗海长期水位变化(1988-2015年)及驱动因子 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
水位变化影响湖泊水质、水量和生态系统功能,是研究湖泊演变的重要内容,但目前针对滇中高原湖群水位变化特征还少见系统报道.本文选择滇池、抚仙湖、阳宗海3个滇中高原湖泊作为研究对象,基于1988-2015年实测水位数据和Mann-Kendall趋势检验法评估了3个湖泊水位变化特征;运用RClimDex模型获得了流域极端降水指标,结合其他指标构建了基于极端气象因子的湖泊水位驱动力指标体系;采用主成分-多元回归模型,解析了极端降水、蒸发等气象因子对滇中高原湖泊水位变化的贡献.结果表明：①滇池、抚仙湖、阳宗海水位年际波动不突出.滇池的年平均水位总体略呈上升趋势,年均上升0.025 m.阳宗海和抚仙湖水位无明显变化.②滇中高原湖泊流域的极端降水指数年际变化趋势不明显.滇池的蒸发量呈明显减小趋势,年均减小21.05 mm.抚仙湖蒸发量呈明显增加趋势,平均每年增加5.52 mm.阳宗海蒸发量的变化不明显.③气象指标可解释滇池水位变化的49.7%,滇池水位变化受气候变化和人类活动的综合影响;阳宗海和抚仙湖水位变化主要受气象条件控制,蒸发量、综合降水指标和连续降水指标对阳宗海水位变化的解释率高达93.3%;综合降水指标和干旱状况指标可以解释抚仙湖水位变化的64.5%.极端降水指标对解释高原湖泊水位变化具有重要作用. 相似文献
5.
Li Yu Zhang Yuxin Zhang Xinzhong Ye Wangting Xu Lingmei Han Qin Li Yichan Liu Hebin Peng Simin 《中国科学:地球科学(英文版)》2020,63(8):1161-1175
The fluctuation of a single lake level is a comprehensive reflection of water balance within the basin, while the regional consistent fluctuations of lake level can indicate the change of regional effective moisture. Previous researches were mainly focused on reconstructing effective moisture by multiproxy analyses of lake sediments. We carried out a series of experiments, including a transient climate evolution model, a lake energy balance model and a lake water balance model to simulate continuous Holocene effective moisture change represented by variability of virtual lake level in East and Central Asia.The virtual lake level, area, water depth and salinity are not equivalent to actual values, but we estimated relative changes of the regional effective moisture. We also explored the driving mechanisms of effective moisture change in different geographical regions. Our results indicated that gradually falling effective moisture during the Holocene in northern China was due to the combined effects of high lake evaporation caused by longwave and shortwave radiation, and low precipitation caused by reductions of summer solar insolation. A decline in effective moisture through the Holocene in the Tibetan Plateau and southern Central Asia resulted from decreased precipitation because of the weakening of the Asian summer monsoon. Increased precipitation induced by the strengthening of the westerly circulation contributed to the effective moisture rise during the Holocene in northern Central Asia. 相似文献
6.
The impact of climate change on the behaviour of intensity–duration–frequency curves is critical to the estimation of design storms, and thus to the safe design of drainage infrastructure. The present study develops a regional time trend methodology that detects the impact of climate change on extreme precipitation from 1960 to 2010. The regional time trend linear regression method is fitted to different durations of annual maximum precipitation intensities derived from multiple sites in Ontario, Canada. The results show the relationship between climate change and increased extreme precipitation in this province. The regional trend analysis demonstrates, under nonstationary conditions arising from climate change, that the intensity of extreme precipitation increased decennially between 1.25% for the 30‐min storm and 1.82% for the 24‐h storm. A comparison of the results with a regional Mann–Kendall test validates the found regional time‐trend results. The results are employed to extrapolate the intensity–duration–frequency curves temporally and spatially for future decades across the province. The results of the regional time trend assessment help with the establishment of new safety margins for infrastructure design in Ontario. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
7.
Variations and statistical probability characteristic analysis of extreme precipitation events under climate change in Haihe River Basin,China 
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下载免费PDF全文 The magnitude and frequency of regional extreme precipitation events may have variability under climate change. This study investigates the time–space variability and statistical probability characteristics of extreme precipitation under climate change in the Haihe River Basin. Hydrological alteration diagnosis methods are implemented to detect the occurrence time, style and degree of alteration such as trend and jump in the extreme precipitation series, and stationarity and serial independence are tested prior to frequency analysis. Then, the historical extreme precipitation frequency and spatio‐temporal variations analyses are conducted via generalized extreme value and generalized Pareto distributions. Furthermore, the occurrence frequency of extreme precipitation events in future is analysed on the basis of the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change multi‐mode climate models under different greenhouse gases emission scenarios (SRES‐A2, A1B and B1). Results indicate that (1) in the past, alteration of extreme precipitation mainly occurred in the area north of 38°N. Decreasing trends of extreme precipitation are detected at most stations, whereas jump alteration is not obvious at most stations. (2) Spatial variation of estimated extreme precipitation under different return periods shows similarity. Bounded by the Taihang Mountain–Yan Mountain, extreme rainfall in the Haihe River Basin gradually reduces from the southeast to the northwest, which is consistent with the geographical features of the Haihe River Basin. (3) In the future, extreme precipitation with return period 5–20 years accounts for a significant portion of the total occurrence times. The frequency of extreme precipitation events has an increase trend under A1B and A2 scenarios. The total occurrence times of extreme precipitation under A1B senario are not more than that under B1 senario until the 2030s. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
8.
Assessment on variability of extreme climate events for the Upper Thames River basin in Canada 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Climate change may affect magnitude and frequency of regional extreme events with possibility of serious impacts on the existing infrastructure systems. This study investigates how the current spatial and temporal variations of extreme events are affected by climate change in the Upper Thames River basin, Ontario, Canada. A weather generator model is implemented to obtain daily time series of three climate variables for two future climate scenarios. The daily time series are disaggregated into hourly to capture characteristics of intense and rapidly changing storms. The maximum annual precipitation events for five short durations, 6‐, 12‐, 24‐, 48‐, and 72‐h durations, at each station are extracted from the generated hourly data. The frequency and seasonality analyses are conducted to investigate the temporal and spatial variability of extreme precipitation events corresponding to each duration. In addition, this study investigates the impacts of increase in temperature using reliability, resilience, and vulnerability. The results indicate that the extreme precipitation events under climate change will occur earlier than in the past. In addition, episodes of extremely high temperature may last longer up to 19·7% than under the no‐change climate scenario. This study points out that the revision of the design storms (e.g. 100‐ or 250‐year return period) is warranted for the west and the south east region of the basin. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
9.
在全球气候变暖和极端气候事件增加的背景下,流域水文循环过程受到的影响越来越强烈,导致湖泊水位变化表现出复杂的时空特征。而泛北极地区是地球上湖泊数量与面积分布最为集中的区域之一,该地区湖泊对气候变化响应非常敏感。因此,了解这些湖泊近期水文变化特征十分必要。本研究共搜集了36个泛北极大型湖泊(>500 km2)基于遥感或站点观测的近20年水位数据,分析其时空变化特征。本文使用线性回归模型来估算湖泊水位的变化趋势,进而利用皮尔逊相关分析了其主要水文影响变量和大气环流机制,并运用Mann-Kendall突变检验法探讨了水位突变的原因。结果表明,泛北极湖泊的水位整体上呈现不同程度上升(平均速率为0.013 m/a),有23个(64%)湖泊的水位呈上升趋势;研究湖泊中有10个通过90%统计显著性检验。其中,水位上升速率最大的湖泊是位于哈萨克斯坦的腾吉兹湖,上升速率为0.078 m/a。泛北极湖泊水位的波动主要与径流有关,有19个(53%)湖泊的水位波动与径流的增加更为相关;相比而言,位于亚洲的极地湖泊水位的上升与流域蒸发的降低显著相关,尤其是库苏古尔湖。从区域大气环流影响来看,泛北极湖泊水位变化主要与厄尔尼诺-南方涛动有关,其次是北极涛动和北大西洋涛动。本研究有助于加深对泛北极湖泊近20年水位变化规律及气候影响特征的科学理解。 相似文献
10.
11.
Robert G. Bryant 《地球表面变化过程与地形》1999,24(4):283-302
The importance of monitoring changes in the levels of lakes within endorheic basins using remotely sensed data as a means of assessing changes in regional aridity is noted. Large salt playas are highlighted as ephemeral lakes that can display extreme sensitivity to changes in regional rainfall patterns, and which commonly do not have extensively managed catchments. To explore the application of high temporal frequency monitoring of salt playas using remote sensing, the Chott el Djerid, a large salt playa situated in southern Tunisia was targeted. A short time series of 39 Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR; resolution 1.1 km at nadir) images of the Chott el Djerid (spanning 36 months between 1987 and 1990) were compiled along with climate information from a weather station at Tozeur. Using image histogram manipulation, lake areas were extracted from the time series. A good level of agreement was observed between recorded rainfall events and the presence of surface water on the playa, and for a limited sample of large flood events it was found that there were significant relationships between rainfall, evaporation and estimated lake areas (r2 = 98.5, p < 0.001). Overall, these data suggest that contemporary lake formation is largely controlled by temporal changes in effective precipitation within the basin. In addition, it was found that the coefficient of variation of the time series, and a combination of temporal reflectance profiles extracted from it, could be used to give a direct indication of which sedimentary surfaces on the playa are affected by large flood events, and the extent to which these events may be preserved within the recent sedimentary record at these sites. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
12.
JIANG QingFeng JI JunFeng SHEN Ji Ryo MATSUMOTO TONG GuoBang QIAN Peng REN XueMei YAN DeZhi 《中国科学:地球科学(英文版)》2013,(3):339-353
Changes in the vegetation and climate of the westerly-dominated areas in Central Asia during the Holocene were interpreted using pollen-assemblages and charcoal data from a 300-cm-long sediment core of the Sayram Lake,northern Xinjiang.Accele-rator Mass Spectrometry(AMS) radiocarbon dating methods were applied to bulk organic matter of the samples.Artemisia spp./Chenopodiaceae ratios and results from principal component analysis were used to infer that the lake basin was dominated by desert vegetation before ca.9.6 cal.ka BP,which suggests a warm and dry climate in the early Holocene.Desert steppe/steppe expanded during 9.6-5.5 cal.ka BP,indicating a remarkable increase both in the precipitation and temperature during the mid-Holocene.Desert vegetation dominated between 6.5 and 5.5 cal.ka BP,marking an extreme warmer and drier interval.The steppe/meadow steppe recovered,and temperatures decreased from 5.5 cal.ka BP in the late Holocene,as indicated by the increased abundance of Artemisia and the development of meadows.Holocene temperatures and moisture variations in the Sayram Lake areas were similar to those of adjacent areas.This consistency implies that solar radiation was the main driving factor for regional temperature changes,and that the effect of temperature variations was significant on regional changes in humidity.The evolution of climate and environment in the Sayram Lake areas,which were characterized as dry in the early Holocene and relatively humid in the middle-late Holocene,are clearly different from those in monsoonal areas.Dry conditions in the early Holocene in the Sayram Lake areas were closely related to decreased water vapor advection.These conditions were a result of reduced westerly wind speeds and less evaporation upstream,which in turn were caused by seasonal changes in solar radiation superimposed by strong evaporation following warming and drying local climate. 相似文献
13.
陕西红碱淖近百年来的孢粉记录及环境变化 总被引：8，自引：1，他引：7
通过孢粉分析,对陕西红碱淖地区近百年来的环境演化进行了探讨,对比钻孔岩性特征、历史记载和器测资料,验证了孢粉记录在短尺度的高分辨率环境变化研究中的有效性.研究表明,1927年以前,红碱淖地区气候非常干旱,不具备成湖条件,植被类型为典型荒漠;1927-1938年,干旱程度有所缓和,湖盆洼地开始积水成湖,植被类型为小灌木荒漠草原植被;1938-1960年,气候相对好转,环境开始变湿,红碱淖在此相对较好的气候条件下,积蓄了一定的水量,形成比第二阶段更深些的湖泊,植被类型为灌丛草原;1960年前后环境有较大的变化,孢粉图谱很好地反映了1960年前后人类活动与降水增加叠加后对环境及湖泊的影响.在1960-2000年期间,气候比前几阶段有明显改善,环境湿润,湖泊面积在1960年前后迅速扩大后维持较高湖面.植被为典型草原植被;近几年来,湖区环境又开始相对转干,植被发育为以藜科为主的草原植被. 相似文献
14.
A hierarchical Bayesian approach for the analysis of climate change impact on runoff extremes 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 H. Moradkhani 《水文研究》2014,28(26):6292-6308
In this study the impact of climate change on runoff extremes is investigated over the Pacific Northwest (PNW). This paper aims to address the question of how the runoff extremes change in the future compared to the historical time period, investigate the different behaviors of the regional climate models (RCMs) regarding the runoff extremes and assess the seasonal variations of runoff extremes. Hydrologic modeling is performed by the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model at a 1/8° resolution and the model is driven by climate scenarios provided by the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) including nine regional climate model (RCM) simulations. Analysis is performed for both the historical (1971–2000) and future (2041–2070) time periods. Downscaling of the climate variables including precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature and wind speed is done using the quantile‐mapping (QM) approach. A spatial hierarchical Bayesian model is then developed to analyse the annual maximum runoff in different seasons for both historical and future time periods. The estimated spatial changes in extreme runoffs over the future period vary depending on the RCM driving the hydrologic model. The hierarchical Bayesian model characterizes the spatial variations in the marginal distributions of the General Extreme Value (GEV) parameters and the corresponding 100‐year return level runoffs. Results show an increase in the 100‐year return level runoffs for most regions in particular over the high elevation areas during winter. The Canadian portions of the study region reflect higher increases during spring. However, reduction of extreme events in several regions is projected during summer. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
15.
在极端气候事件频发和人类活动加剧的背景下,抚仙湖水位波动显著,尤其是2009—2012年极端干旱事件的发生,使抚仙湖平均水位（1721.31 m）低于法定最低水位（1721.65 m）,给生态环境安全带来严重威胁.因此,找到合适有效的湖泊水位模拟方法,对气候变化影响下的未来水位进行预测,并做好相应的应对准备,对湖泊生态系统的保护至关重要.本文运用DYRESM水动力模型对抚仙湖1959—2050年水位进行了模拟.因抚仙湖流域尚无长时间序列的历史水文观测数据,故利用模型和水量补偿法对抚仙湖入湖水量进行反推,构建了降水量-入湖水量的回归方程,并通过有效的实测入湖水量和水位数据,对回归方程的精度进行了检验.利用全球气候模式BCC-CSM2-MR中SSP245和SSP585两种情景提供的未来气候预估数据,运用DYRESM预测了抚仙湖2021—2050年水位变化趋势.结果表明：（1）构建的DYRESM水动力模型和降水-入湖水量回归方程精度较高,模型结果能很好地反映抚仙湖水位的年际和年内变化趋势,且能有效捕捉到抚仙湖的水位峰值.（2）在SSP245和SSP585两种情景下,抚仙湖2021—2050年多年平均水位分别为1722.98和1723.93 m,较1959—2017年平均水位1721.77 m分别升高1.21和2.16 m.两种情景下抚仙湖未来水位均有部分时段超过法定最高蓄水位（1723.35 m）,但均高于法定最低水位.因此,未来气候变化对抚仙湖水量的影响有限,并不会导致水位过低,当水位超过法定最高蓄水位时,可通过控制出流闸门将水位调节在合理范围内. 相似文献
16.
Spatial Patterns of Sea Level Variability Associated with Natural Internal Climate Modes 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Weiqing Han Gerald A. Meehl Detlef Stammer Aixue Hu Benjamin Hamlington Jessica Kenigson Hindumathi Palanisamy Philip Thompson 《Surveys in Geophysics》2017,38(1):217-250
Sea level rise (SLR) can exert significant stress on highly populated coastal societies and low-lying island countries around the world. Because of this, there is huge societal demand for improved decadal predictions and future projections of SLR, particularly on a local scale along coastlines. Regionally, sea level variations can deviate considerably from the global mean due to various geophysical processes. These include changes of ocean circulations, which partially can be attributed to natural, internal modes of variability in the complex Earth’s climate system. Anthropogenic influence may also contribute to regional sea level variations. Separating the effects of natural climate modes and anthropogenic forcing, however, remains a challenge and requires identification of the imprint of specific climate modes in observed sea level change patterns. In this paper, we review our current state of knowledge about spatial patterns of sea level variability associated with natural climate modes on interannual-to-multidecadal timescales, with particular focus on decadal-to-multidecadal variability. Relevant climate modes and our current state of understanding their associated sea level patterns and driving mechanisms are elaborated separately for the Pacific, the Indian, the Atlantic, and the Arctic and Southern Oceans. We also discuss the issues, challenges and future outlooks for understanding the regional sea level patterns associated with climate modes. Effects of these internal modes have to be taken into account in order to achieve more reliable near-term predictions and future projections of regional SLR. 相似文献
17.
ABSTRACTNumerous statistical downscaling models have been applied to impact studies, but none clearly recommended the most appropriate one for a particular application. This study uses the geographically weighted regression (GWR) method, based on local implications from physical geographical variables, to downscale climate change impacts to a small-scale catchment. The ensembles of daily precipitation time series from 15 different regional climate models (RCMs) driven by five different general circulation models (GCMs), obtained through the European Union (EU)-ENSEMBLES project for reference (1960–1990) and future (2071–2100) scenarios are generated for the Omerli catchment, in the east of Istanbul city, Turkey, under scenario A1B climate change projections. Special focus is given to changes in extreme precipitation, since such information is needed to assess the changes in the frequency and intensity of flooding for future climate. The mean daily precipitation from all RCMs is under-represented in the summer, autumn and early winter, but it is overestimated in late winter and spring. The results point to an increase in extreme precipitation in winter, spring and summer, and a decrease in autumn in the future, compared to the current period. The GWR method provides significant modifications (up to 35%) to these changes and agrees on the direction of change from RCMs. The GWR method improves the representation of mean and extreme precipitation compared to RCM outputs and this is more significant, particularly for extreme cases of each season. The return period of extreme events decreases in the future, resulting in higher precipitation depths for a given return period from most of the RCMs. This feature is more significant with downscaling. According to the analysis presented, a new adaption for regulating excessive water under climate change in the Omerli basin may be recommended. 相似文献
18.
In the context of global warming, the mountainous areas of Central Asia are sensitive to climate and environmental changes and are highly vulnerable to natural disasters. Here, we use high-resolution lacustrine grain-size and geochemical records from Lake Issyk-Kul to infer hydrological changes, environmental events, and their driving factors in the western Tianshan Mountains of Central Asia over the last 350 years. The regional hydrological and environmental changes can be divided into three phases. In stage I (1674–1860 AD), the values of total organic carbon (TOC), total nitrogen (TN) and magnetic susceptibility (MS) were high, and the element contents changed indistinctively, suggesting that lake water levels were relatively stable. In Stage II (1860–2000 AD), the TOC and TN contents increased, the MS values decreased, and the grain size changed markedly, suggesting that water levels fluctuated dramatically. In Stage III (2000–2013 AD), the coarse particle and migratory element contents increased dramatically, indicating that regional rainfall and runoff increased and that the water level rose. Studies have also shown that the synchronous increases in sedimentary coarse particles, TOC and migratory elements indicate multiple flood events. Extreme floods have been frequent and intense in recent years, which indicates that the climate is generally warming, which is in good agreement with tree ring data, ice core records and other sediment records in alpine regions. Additionally, the lake sediments recorded a seismic event in approximately 1910 AD, which was consistent with historical documentation. Comparative analysis of records suggests that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation is one of the dominant factors driving climate and hydrological changes in the study area. Climate change, combined with natural disasters (e.g., earthquakes) and anthropogenic activities, is generating extreme floods and variations in hydrological patterns in the mountain basin. These findings can provide crucial information about sedimentary physicochemical clues for tracking past hydrological and environmental conditions and contribute to a better understanding of hydrological processes and driving factors in the mountainous areas of Central Asia. 相似文献
19.
Climate change will most likely cause an increase in extreme precipitation and consequently an increase in soil erosion in many locations worldwide. In most cases, climate model output is used to assess the impact of climate change on soil erosion; however, there is little knowledge of the implications of bias correction methods and climate model ensembles on projected soil erosion rates. Using a soil erosion model, we evaluated the implications of three bias correction methods (delta change, quantile mapping and scaled distribution mapping) and climate model selection on regional soil erosion projections in two contrasting Mediterranean catchments. Depending on the bias correction method, soil erosion is projected to decrease or increase. Scaled distribution mapping best projects the changes in extreme precipitation. While an increase in extreme precipitation does not always result in increased soil loss, it is an important soil erosion indicator. We suggest first establishing the deviation of the bias-corrected climate signal with respect to the raw climate signal, in particular for extreme precipitation. Furthermore, individual climate models may project opposite changes with respect to the ensemble average; hence climate model ensembles are essential in soil erosion impact assessments to account for climate model uncertainty. We conclude that the impact of climate change on soil erosion can only accurately be assessed with a bias correction method that best reproduces the projected climate change signal, in combination with a representative ensemble of climate models. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
20.
Precipitation in the Pearl River basin, South China: scaling, regional patterns, and influence of large-scale climate anomalies 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Jun Niu 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2013,27(5):1253-1268
This study examines the temporal patterns of precipitation and the influence of large-scale climate anomalies in the Pearl River basin (South China), with particular focus on sub-basin scale. Three popular data analysis techniques are employed: (1) wavelet analysis; (2) principal component analysis (PCA); and (3) rank correlation method. With due consideration to hydrologic factors, water resources activities, and large-scale climate data, the entire basin is divided into ten sub-basins and the analysis is performed on monthly data. The wavelet analysis reveals discernible differences in temporal scales of fluctuation embedded in the monthly precipitation anomalies over the basin. The PCA delineates three coherent regions exhibiting similar distribution of variability across scales. Analysis of linkages between precipitation and teleconnection patterns using cross-wavelet transform and wavelet coherence reveals that the dominant variabilities of precipitation are essentially depicted by the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), especially for the central and eastern part of the Pearl River basin. On the influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signal on precipitation, more significant correlation is detected for the eastern part of the basin, long-term relationships (within 4–8 years band) are found for the western part of the basin, while the central part seems to be acting as a transition zone. Rank correlations of scale-averaged wavelet power between regional precipitation and climate indices for the dominant low-frequency variability band (0.84–8.40 years) provide further support to the different precipitation-climate relationships for different regions over the basin. The present results provide valuable information towards: (1) improving predictions of extreme hydroclimatic events in the Pearl River basin, based on their relationships with IOD or ENSO; and (2) devising better adaptation and mitigation strategies under a future changing climate. 相似文献