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1.
现代冰川过程与全球环境气候演变 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
文章从宏观和微观两个方面扼要阐述了现代冰川过程与全球变化之间的关系。南极冰盖和格陵兰冰盖冰川物质平衡值目前还没有确切结论，虽然它与全球海平面的升降密切相关。山地冰川末端进退变化和冰川物质平衡与全球升温对应较好。极地冰盖现代降水中的稳定同位素比率，主要阴、阳离子、生物有机酸、微粒、超痕量重金属元素、宇宙尘埃以及火山灰等杂质的含量，为认识地球现代环境气候状况提供了丰富的资料。极地冰盖冰芯的分析结果为重建过去气候环境提供了大信息量，高保真度和高分辨率的资料为预测未来气候环境奠定了坚实基础，具有其它任何载体无法取代的优越性。山地冰川的现代和过去气候环境记录，对研究全球和区域性气候环境状况与变迁意义重大 相似文献
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冰架是南极冰盖物质损失的主要出口。南极冰架动态变化和物质平衡的研究对揭示南极地区的气候变化具有重要的参考价值。本文从表面融化、冰流速、前缘崩解、底部融化和物质平衡五个方面入手,对近些年来南极冰架变化监测的研究进展进行梳理和归纳总结,综述了它们的观测方法、观测结果、机制分析及当前面临的问题。极地观测卫星和现场观测网络的发展、冰架多维度综合分析及数值模拟研究的推进,将有助于进一步揭示冰架变化因子之间的耦合作用及其演变机制,为全球增温影响南极冰盖/冰架的物理机制研究及其变化预测提供重要依据。 相似文献
4.
Three facts should guide ice-sheet modeling. (1) Ice height above the bed is controlled by the strength of ice-bed coupling, reducing ice thickness by some 90 percent when coupling vanishes. (2) Ice-bed coupling vanishes along ice streams that end as floating ice shelves and drain up to 90 percent of an ice sheet. (3) Because of (1) and (2), ice sheets can rapidly collapse and disintegrate, thereby removing ice sheets from Earth's climate system and forcing abrupt climate change. The first model of ice-sheet dynamics was developed in Australia and applied to the present Antarctic Ice Sheet in 1970. It treated slow sheet flow, which prevails over some 90 percent of the ice sheet, but is the least dynamic component. The model made top-down calculations of ice velocities and temperatures, based on known surface conditions and an assumed basal geothermal heat flux. In 1972, Joseph Fletcher proposed a six-step research strategy for studying dynamic systems. The first step was identifying the most dynamic components, which for Antarctica are fast ice streams that discharge up to 90 percent of the ice. Ice-sheet models developed at the University of Maine in the 1970s were based on the Fletcher strategy and focused on ice streams, including calving dynamics when ice streams end in water. These models calculated the elevation of ice sheets based in the strength of ice-bed coupling. This was a bottom-up approach that lowered ice elevations some 90 percent when ice-bed coupling vanished. Top-down modeling is able to simulate changes in the size and shape of ice sheets through a whole glaciation cycle, provided the mass balance is treated correctly. Bottom-up modeling is able to produce accurate changes in ice elevations based on changes in ice-bed coupling, provided the force balance is treated correctly. Truly holistic ice-sheet models should synthesize top-down and bottom-up approaches by combining the mass balance with the force balance in ways that merge abrupt changes in stream flow with slow changes in sheet flow. Then discharging 90 percent of the ice by ice streams mobilizes 90 percent of the area so ice sheets can self-destruct, and thereby terminate a glaciation cycle. 相似文献
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国际南极冰盖与海平面变化研究述评 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
海平面上升是全球变暖的主要后果之一。尽管有少数冰川学家认为,气候变暖并不能确保雪积累量的显著增加,同时可能出现冰流的突然变化,因此南极冰盖在未来海平面变化中的作用存在很大的不确定性。但近几十年来南极半岛气温的急剧上升,已使大量的冰架崩解。冰架崩解并不对海平面产生真正的影响,但反映出南极洲气候与冰川存在急剧变化的可能。 相似文献
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We present relative sea level （RSL） curves in Antarctica derived from glacial isostatic adjustment （GIA）predictions based on the melting scenarios of the Antarctic ice sheet since the Last Glacial Maximum （LGM）given in previous works.Simultaneously,Holocene-age RSL observations obtained at the raised beaches along the coast of Antarctica are shown to be in agreement with the GIA predictions.The differences from previously published ice-loading models regarding the spatial distribution and total mass change of the melted ice are significant.These models were also derived from GIA modelling; the variations can be attributed to the lack of geological and geographical evidence regarding the history of crustal movement due to ice sheet evolution.Next,we summarise the previously published ice load models and demonstrate the RSL curves based on combinations of different ice and earth models.The RSL curves calculated by GIA models indicate that the model dependence of both the ice and earth models is significantly large at several sites where RSL observations were obtained.In particular,GIA predictions based on the thin lithospheric thickness show the spatial distributions that are dependent on the melted ice thickness at each sites.These characteristics result from the short-wavelength deformation of the Earth.However,our predictions strongly suggest that it is possible to find the average ice model despite the use of the different models of lithospheric thickness.By sea level and crustal movement observations,we can deduce the geometry of the post-LGM ice sheets in detail and remove the GIA contribution from the crustal deformation and gravity change observed by space geodetic techniques,such as GPS and GRACE,for the estimation of the Antarctic ice mass change associated with recent global warming. 相似文献
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Greenland Ice Sheet is one of the two largest ice sheets on the planet. Under the background of climate warming, the melting of the Greenland ice sheet and its contribution to sea level rise has become an international hot issue. The whole melting of the Greenland ice sheet can cause the global sea level to rise by about 7.3 meters. However, the dynamic mechanism that affects the mass balance of ice sheet is still unclear and is the greatest uncertainty source for predicting the rise in sea level in the future. The National Key Research and Development Program of China “A Study of the Monitoring, Simulation and Climate Impact of Greenland Ice Sheet” conducts monitoring and simulation studies on the key processes of instability of the “ice sheet-outlet glacier-sea ice” system, and establishes a satellite-airborne-ground integrated observation system, supporting the numerical simulation and impact research of the ice sheet and its surrounding sea ice, laying the foundation for long-term monitoring and international cooperation in Greenland. This program will work to reduce the uncertainty of sea level change projections by improving the ice sheet dynamic model forced by the ice core records, reveal the driving mechanism of sea ice changes around the ice sheet, focusing on the Northwest Passage, evaluate and forecast the navigation window period. The results of the project will deepen the understanding of the changes and impacts of the Arctic cryosphere, serve the safe navigation and operation of the Northwest Passage, and provide scientific support for the comprehensive risk prevention of coastal zones in China. 相似文献
8.
Oleg Rybak Evgeny Volodin Polina Morozova Artiom Nevecherja 《Journal of Earth System Science》2018,127(2):28
Elaboration of a modern Earth system model (ESM) requires incorporation of ice sheet dynamics. Coupling of an ice sheet model (ICM) to an AOGCM is complicated by essential differences in spatial and temporal scales of cryospheric, atmospheric and oceanic components. To overcome this difficulty, we apply two different approaches for the incorporation of ice sheets into an ESM. Coupling of the Antarctic ice sheet model (AISM) to the AOGCM is accomplished via using procedures of resampling, interpolation and assigning to the AISM grid points annually averaged meanings of air surface temperature and precipitation fields generated by the AOGCM. Surface melting, which takes place mainly on the margins of the Antarctic peninsula and on ice shelves fringing the continent, is currently ignored. AISM returns anomalies of surface topography back to the AOGCM. To couple the Greenland ice sheet model (GrISM) to the AOGCM, we use a simple buffer energy- and water-balance model (EWBM-G) to account for orographically-driven precipitation and other sub-grid AOGCM-generated quantities. The output of the EWBM-G consists of surface mass balance and air surface temperature to force the GrISM, and freshwater run-off to force thermohaline circulation in the oceanic block of the AOGCM. Because of a rather complex coupling procedure of GrIS compared to AIS, the paper mostly focuses on Greenland. 相似文献
9.
Sherilyn C. Fritz Paul A. Baker Geoffrey O. Seltzer Ashley Ballantyne Pedro Tapia Hai Cheng R. Lawrence Edwards 《Quaternary Research》2007,68(3):410-420
A 136-m-long drill core of sediments was recovered from tropical high-altitude Lake Titicaca, Bolivia-Peru, enabling a reconstruction of past climate that spans four cycles of regional glacial advance and retreat and that is estimated to extend continuously over the last 370,000 yr. Within the errors of the age model, the periods of regional glacial advance and retreat are concordant respectively with global glacial and interglacial stages. Periods of ice advance in the southern tropical Andes generally were periods of positive water balance, as evidenced by deeper and fresher conditions in Lake Titicaca. Conversely, reduced glaciation occurred during periods of negative water balance and shallow closed-basin conditions in the lake. The apparent coincidence of positive water balance of Lake Titicaca and glacial growth in the adjacent Andes with Northern Hemisphere ice sheet expansion implies that regional water balance and glacial mass balance are strongly influenced by global-scale temperature changes, as well as by precessional forcing of the South American summer monsoon. 相似文献
10.
冰盖数值模拟是一种基于多源观测数据,通过构建并求解冰流动力学方程组,理解冰流运动物理机制以及诊断和预估其演化过程的方法,目前已被广泛应用于冰盖变化研究。本文简要介绍了极地冰盖数值模拟方法,归纳综述了近十余年我国学者在极地冰盖数值模拟方面的研究进展,厘清我国在冰盖数值模拟领域遇到的瓶颈和关键问题。阐述了如何与我国的极地冰盖科考优势区域深度结合,协同多源强化观测和数值模拟,研发和改进冰盖模式,提高冰盖模拟能力,对定量估算极地冰盖的物质平衡及其对未来海平面上升的影响做出实质贡献。通过逐步发展冰盖模式的研究能力,有望将来在冰盖关键动力过程和机制的科学认识上有所突破。 相似文献
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以J.A.Clark为代表的全球海面变化均衡模式为基础,讨论冰盖形或对地核运动的影响。数值计算表明,由于地核偏离地心的运动,不同海区大约有±1.54m的海面波动。把这个结果叠加在均衡模式的结果之上,会使预测的结果与所观察结果更为符合。 相似文献
12.
南极冰盖对海平面影响巨大,高程变化测量是南极物质平衡监测的重要手段。采用欧空局CryoSat-2雷达高度计数据,通过提取卫星升降轨的地面交叉点,监测了南极内陆冰盖的高程变化（物质平衡）。结果表明,后向散射能量对Ku波段的CryoSat-2雷达高度计的高程数据具有一定的影响,经后向散射能量校正后,时间序列上的高程变化变得平缓,高程变化与已有的降雪数据相比,更加符合实际情况。2010年11月至2017年11月南极内陆冰盖高程变化趋势为（-1.1±0.2）cm·a-1。西南极的Kamb冰流高程变化率为（38.7±1.1）cm·a-1,Moeller冰流高程变化率为（-10.3±1.2）cm·a-1,部分Thwaites冰川区域高程变化率为（-13.4±1.8）cm·a-1,东南极的Wilkes Land出现高下降区,最高达-20 cm·a-1。Dronning Maud Land虽然出现变化异常的点,但整体并没有显著的高程变化。南极内陆冰盖质量变化为（-10.6±6.2）Gt·a-1,整体上南极内陆冰盖质量变化平缓,部分区域变化较大,Kamb冰流达到（17.9±0.5）Gt·a-1,Moeller冰流达到（-3.4±0.4）Gt·a-1,部分Thwaites冰川区达到（-3.7±0.5）Gt·a-1。 相似文献
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在全球气候变暖背景下, 第三极和北极地区的增温尤其明显, 冰冻圈对气候变化有着更为敏感的响应。湖冰作为冰冻圈的重要组成部分, 其变化不仅是气候的指示器, 同时也通过改变能量平衡、 大气环流、 辐射平衡等影响区域气候。通过对比不同观测手段及主要模型模拟方法在湖冰研究中的优缺点及适用性, 总结了第三极和北极湖冰变化的时空特征, 结果表明：第三极和北极地区湖冰均显示初冰日推迟、 消融日提前、 封冻期缩短的趋势; 第三极和北极地区湖冰厚度呈持续减少趋势; 未来湖冰的这些变化将更加显著。第三极和北极地区湖冰的变化主要受到气温的影响, 同时也受到风速、 湖泊理化性质的限制。在系统梳理第三极和北极地区湖冰变化的基础上, 总结了湖冰研究面临的问题和挑战, 为未来湖冰研究提供科学依据。 相似文献
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Ian Shennan Sarah Bradley Glenn Milne Anthony Brooks Sophie Bassett Sarah Hamilton 《第四纪科学杂志》2006,21(6):585-599
While contributing <1 m equivalent eustatic sea‐level rise the British Isles ice sheet produced glacio‐isostatic rebound in northern Britain of similar magnitude to eustatic sea‐level change, or global meltwater influx, over the last 18 000 years. The resulting spatially variable relative sea‐level changes combine with observations from far‐field locations to produce a rigorous test for quantitative models of glacial isostatic adjustment, local ice‐sheet history and global meltwater influx. After a review of the attributes of relative sea‐level observations significant for constraining large‐scale models of the isostatic adjustment process we summarise long records of relative sea‐level change from the British Isles and far‐field locations. We give an overview of different global theoretical models of the isostatic adjustment process before presenting intercomparisons of observed and predicted relative sea levels at sites in the British Isles and far‐field for a range of Earth and ice model parameters in order to demonstrate model sensitivity and the resolving power available from using evidence from the British Isles. For the first time we show a good degree of fit between relative sea‐level observations and predictions that are based upon global Earth and ice model parameters, independently derived from analysis of far‐field data, with a terrain‐corrected model of the British Isles ice sheet that includes extensive glaciation of the North Sea and western continental shelf, that does not assume isostatic equilibrium at the Last Glacial Maximum and keeps to trimline constraints of ice surface elevation. We do not attempt to identify a unique solution for the model lithosphere thickness parameter or the local‐scale detail of the ice model in order to provide a fit for all sites, but argue that the next stage should be to incorporate an ice‐sheet model that is based on quantitative, glaciological model simulations. We hope that this paper will stimulate this debate and help to integrate research in glacial geomorphology, glaciology, sea‐level change, Earth rheology and quantitative modelling. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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极地海冰的研究及其在气候变化中的作用 总被引：4，自引：2，他引：2
极地海冰作为全球气候系统的一个重要组成部分,通过影响大洋表面的辐射平衡、物质平衡、能量平衡以及大洋温、盐流的形成和循环而影响全球气候变化.从最初研究极地海冰的强度和承载力到目前海/冰/气相互作用全球气候耦合模型的建立,使海冰变化和全球气候变化紧密结合起来.这些研究领域主要有:海冰及其表层雪的物理特性和过程、海冰区域生态特征、海冰区与气候相关的反照率和物质平衡研究以及海冰气候耦合模型等大的领域.模拟显示,21世纪因为全球变暖,南北极海冰都将减少.海冰和全球气候系统其它要素之间的相互作用问题、极地海冰的厚度季节性区域性分布问题、极地海冰边界及范围变化趋势问题、生消关键过程及其影响因素问题、冰间湖的作用以及海气相互作用等将是未来重要的研究方向. 相似文献
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Nina Kirchner Ralf Greve Arjen P. Stroeven Jakob Heyman 《Quaternary Science Reviews》2011,30(1-2):248-267
The Tibetan Plateau is a topographic feature of extraordinary dimension and has an important impact on regional and global climate. However, the glacial history of the Tibetan Plateau is more poorly constrained than that of most other formerly glaciated regions such as in North America and Eurasia. On the basis of some field evidence it has been hypothesized that the Tibetan Plateau was covered by an ice sheet during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Abundant field- and chronological evidence for a predominance of local valley glaciation during the past 300,000 calendar years (that is, 300 ka), coupled to an absence of glacial landforms and sediments in extensive areas of the plateau, now refute this concept. This, furthermore, calls into question previous ice sheet modeling attempts which generally arrive at ice volumes considerably larger than allowed for by field evidence. Surprisingly, the robustness of such numerical ice sheet model results has not been widely queried, despite potentially important climate ramifications. We simulated the growth and decay of ice on the Tibetan Plateau during the last 125 ka in response to a large ensemble of climate forcings (90 members) derived from Global Circulation Models (GCMs), using a similar 3D thermomechanical ice sheet model as employed in previous studies. The numerical results include as extreme end members as an ice-free Tibetan Plateau and a plateau-scale ice sheet comparable, in volume, to the contemporary Greenland ice sheet. We further demonstrate that numerical simulations that acceptably conform to published reconstructions of Quaternary ice extent on the Tibetan Plateau cannot be achieved with the employed stand-alone ice sheet model when merely forced by paleoclimates derived from currently available GCMs. Progress is, however, expected if future investigations employ ice sheet models with higher resolution, bidirectional ice sheet-atmosphere feedbacks, improved treatment of the surface mass balance, and regional climate data and climate reconstructions. 相似文献
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在国际古气候模拟比较计划设置的标准试验方案下,首先利用中国科学院大气物理研究所的全球大气环流模式（IAP-AGCM）模拟了末次盛冰期东亚气候状况,然后通过4组数值敏感性试验逐一模拟了大气CO2浓度、海洋表面温度（SST）和海冰、陆地冰盖和地形、东亚植被变化4项强迫因子的单独气候效应,进而对末次盛冰期东亚气候的成因进行了检测。结果表明,末次盛冰期除华南局部略有升温外,中国年均地表气温显著降低,降温幅度总体上向北增大,青藏高原处存在一个降温中心。其中,SST和海冰变化是华南局部略偏暖的主因,它同时导致了东亚其他区域地表气温的显著降低,特别是在东北亚地区;陆地冰盖和地形变化对于东亚地表气温的显著冷却作用主要体现在东亚的西北部;大气CO2浓度降低会引起东亚地区0.2～0.9℃的普遍降温;相对而言,东亚植被的降温作用（0.5～1.0℃）主要显现在中国40°N以南的区域。与此同时,SST和海冰变化能引起中国东部年均降水一定程度的减少,而大气CO2浓度、陆地冰盖和地形、东亚植被单独变化均不会显著影响东亚年均降水的分布状况,然而,上述四项因子的共同变化会通过协同作用引起中国东部年均降水的显著减少,西部地区降水则与现在差别不大。此外,末次盛冰期东亚夏季风的显著减弱源于SST和海冰变化,冬季风变化则可归因于SST和海冰、陆地冰盖和地形的变化。 相似文献
18.
Bedrock surfaces exposed around Llyn Llydaw, North Wales demonstrate contrasting styles of erosion beneath a Late Devensian ice sheet and a Loch Lomond Stadial (LLS) valley glacier. Ice sheet erosion involved lee-side fracturing, surface fracture wear and abrasive wear, while LLS erosion was primarily by abrasive wear. Preservation of ice sheet erosional features indicates limited rates of erosion during the LLS. Analysis of the geometry and distribution of erosional markings suggests that the low erosional capacity of the LLS glacier was due to a low basal sliding velocity. This prevented the formation of lee-side cavities, reduced the debris flux over the bed and minimised particle-bed contact loads. Reconstructions of the mass balance and geometry of the LLS glacier indicate that most of its balance velocity could be achieved by internal deformation alone. A combination of low subglacial water pressures and an unusually rough substrate explain the low sliding velocities. High bed roughness is due to the absence of leeside cavities and a change in flow orientation between ice sheet and LLS times, which meant that the LLS glacier was in contact with roughness elements which were generated in cavities beneath the ice sheet. 相似文献
19.
Timing of the first drainage of the Baltic Ice Lake synchronous with the onset of Greenland Stadial 1 
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下载免费PDF全文 Francesco Muschitiello James M. Lea Sarah L. Greenwood Faezeh M. Nick Lars Brunnberg Alison MacLeod Barbara Wohlfarth 《Boreas: An International Journal of Quaternary Research》2016,45(2):322-334
Glacial varves can give significant insights into recession and melting rates of decaying ice sheets. Moreover, varve chronologies can provide an independent means of comparison to other annually resolved climatic archives, which ultimately help to assess the timing and response of an ice sheet to changes across rapid climate transitions. Here we report a composite 1257‐year‐long varve chronology from southeastern Sweden spanning the regional late Allerød–late Younger Dryas pollen zone. The chronology was correlated to the Greenland Ice‐Core Chronology 2005 using the time‐synchronous Vedde Ash volcanic marker, which can be found in both successions. For the first time, this enables secure placement of the Lateglacial Swedish varve chronology in absolute time. Geochemical analysis from new varve successions indicate a marked change in sedimentation regime accompanied by an interruption of ice‐rafted debris deposition synchronous with the onset of Greenland Stadial 1 (GS‐1; 12 846 years before AD 1950). With the support of a simple ice‐flow/calving model, we suggest that slowdown of sediment transfer can be explained by ice‐sheet margin stabilization/advance in response to a significant drop of the Baltic Ice Lake level. A reassessment of chronological evidence from central‐western and southern Sweden further supports the hypothesis of synchronicity between the first (penultimate) catastrophic drainage of the Baltic Ice Lake and the start of GS‐1 in Greenland ice‐cores. Our results may therefore provide the first chronologically robust evidence linking continental meltwater forcing to rapid atmosphere–ocean circulation changes in the North Atlantic. 相似文献
20.
Anne Mangeney 《Mathematical Geology》2001,33(2):229-237
Ice-sheet flow is described by the Navier–Stokes equations. We present here an analytical solution for a very simple configuration of two-dimensional ice sheet flow. It is obtained for an imposed flat surface elevation and for a linear flow law. This analytical solution is used here to estimate the performance and precision of a two-dimensional ice sheet flow model. In particular, the comparison of this 2D ice sheet flow model with the analytical solution has allowed to test all the terms involved in the mechanical equations. This analytical solution may be very useful to test similar types of models. 相似文献