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1.
Cloud-to-ground lightning is a common and dangerous natural atmospheric hazard in southern Canada. Previous research conducted by the author and colleagues, using data from 1994 to 2003, estimated that lightning directly or indirectly kills 9–10 people and injures 92–164 more each year in Canada. Repeating the analysis using data from the same government agency and media sources for the 2002–2017 period, the author found that lightning-related mortality decreased to 2–3 deaths per year, roughly 0.08 deaths per million population. An average of 180 lightning-related injuries each year (5.3 per million population) was estimated for the same period, slightly greater than the maximum documented in the 1994–2003 analysis. About half of the drop in mortality between periods may be attributed to the reduction in reported deaths associated with lightning-ignited municipal fires since 2000. The remainder may be due to a combination of greater availability and use of communication technology, faster emergency response and medical treatment, and increased public awareness of lightning hazards and safety. Further research is required to explain why lightning-related injury rates have remained stable; better understand the interaction of technological, behavioral and other factors; and to determine the efficacy of past and potential future safety interventions.
相似文献2.
Brian Mills Dan Unrau Carla Parkinson Brenda Jones Jennifer Yessis Kelsey Spring Laurel Pentelow 《Natural Hazards》2008,47(2):157-183
This article summarizes research completed to assess the risk of lightning-related injuries and fatalities in Canada. Although
lightning mortality has declined significantly over the past century, it remains a common meteorological hazard that regularly
kills and injures. Based on an analysis of media reports, vital statistics, hospital admission and emergency room visit records,
and fire loss data, the authors estimate that on average about 9–10 lightning-related deaths and 92–164 injuries occur each
year in Canada. The distribution of casualties reflects current provincial population and cloud-to-ground lightning densities.
Consistent with similar studies in other developed nations, most lightning-related fatalities and injuries in Canada occur
during the June-August summer season, coincident with peak lightning, and during the Thursday-Saturday period, most likely
related to higher rates of participation in outdoor activities. The majority of victims are male, less than 46 years old,
and engaged in outdoor recreational activities when injured or killed in a lightning incident. Media reports used in the study
were found to underestimate both lightning mortality (36%) and morbidity (20–600%).
相似文献
| Brian MillsEmail: |
3.
Lightning casualties and damages in China from 1997 to 2009 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Lightning-related fatalities, injuries and property damages reported in China from 1997 to 2009 are summarized by using the National Lightning Hazards Database. Therefore, characteristics of the incidents including 5,033 deaths, 4,670 injuries and 61,614 damage reports are analyzed. For the spatial distribution of lightning disasters in China, the eastern costal and southern areas have more frequent lightning disasters than the western areas. Lightning disasters mainly occur in summer months from July to September, while fewer damages occur in winter months from October to March, which correlate significantly with the temporal variability of lightning frequency in China. Lightning-related casualties and damages in China have increased for the period of 1997 to 2007 and then began to decrease since 2008. The national fatalities and injuries per million people per year are 0.31 and 0.28, respectively. Rural people account for 51 and 29% of all lightning fatalities and injuries, which makes residents in agricultural and rural area the major lightning victims. Characteristics of lightning disasters and correlative factors are also studied, including hazard-affected industries and locations. The results show that civil industry has the worst property loss and farmland is the largest category in lightning-caused casualty locations. 相似文献
4.
Wisdom Mdumiseni Dlamini 《Natural Hazards》2009,50(1):179-191
An investigation is undertaken to analyze the human lightning fatalities in Swaziland. A total of 123 victims of lightning-related
death were identified from the records of the Royal Swaziland Police Service and the local printed media for the period 2000–2007.
An annual average fatality rate of 15.5 people per million, the highest recorded rate in the world, was obtained. The results
also reveal that 66% were male, most (67%) of them were within the 10–39 age group with an average age of 28 years. Lightning
fatalities occurred from September to May mainly in the afternoon (1400–1800 h). Deaths most commonly occurred indoors inside
rural houses (17%), whilst walking (16%) and under a tree (14%). The incidents resulted in multiple fatalities in 22% of the
cases with an average of 1.4 casualties per incident. The need for awareness campaigns, protection measures and detailed investigation
is highlighted. 相似文献
5.
In late December 2013, Eastern Canada was hit by a severe ice storm that covered Southern Ontario, Quebec, and the Maritimes. Toronto, the largest city of Canada, was among the hardest hit. The freezing rain lasted for 3 days, leaving up to 30 mm coat of ice covering the ground and infrastructure. The urban forestry was badly hit as the ice accretion caused major tree failures and damage to the trees. Trees snapped as they were dormant and fragile during winter weather. In addition, tree limbs with branches heavily coated with ice brought down power lines. About 300,000 power customers (over a million people) were left without power for almost 3 days and tens of thousands for more than a week. The damages from the ice storm cost the city of Toronto over $106 million, while the cost of insured losses was in the range of $200 million. This short paper gives a brief overview of the ice storm, its impact on the city of Toronto, and the response and recovery measures that followed. 相似文献
6.
Corporate knowledge transfer via interlocking directorates: a network analysis approach 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
This paper explores spatial changes to knowledge transfer by Canadian and American corporate networks from 1976 to 1996. Results support facets of a World Cities approach for Canada. Toronto lies at the top of the hierarchy, while Montreal, Calgary, and Vancouver fall into a third tier of specialized regional cities. The American knowledge network also possesses facets of the world cities approach. The world city, New York, lies at the top of the hierarchy. Further down, Chicago is a specialized national city, while a number of regional centers have emerged to play a larger role over the twenty-year study period. A third tier of cities has emerged to play the critical role of specialized regional cities. This geographical phenomenon can be explained in terms of industry, headquarters locations, and network maturity. Finance, insurance and real estate, as well as “other manufacturing” are three sectors of the economy that are prominent in the network. In Canada, these sectors have increasingly centralized in Toronto while decentralizing in the United States. Similarly, the headquarters location of American firms is decentralizing from New York and Chicago, while Canadian headquarters continue to be centralized in Toronto. Finally, results indicate that the potential for knowledge transfer depends upon maturity of the system under investigation. The mature US network with a large pool of qualified business individuals is better suited for knowledge transfer at the regional level. The Canadian network is less developed and not appropriate for regional systems of knowledge transfer. The result is a Canadian corporate knowledge threshold that encompasses the entire country while a number of much smaller corporate knowledge thresholds appear across the United States. 相似文献
7.
Policy makers need accurate disaster loss data for decisions about disaster assistance, policy evaluation, and scientific research priorities. But loss estimation is difficult in a disaster situation, and initial loss estimates are seldom evaluated in comparison with actual costs. This paper uses the example of historical flood damage data in the U.S. to evaluate disaster loss data. It evaluates the accuracy of historical flood damage estimates from two federal agencies. The U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) has compiled annual flood loss estimates for each state since 1955. Comparison of the NWS data with similar estimates from five state emergency management agencies reveals substantial disagreement between estimates from different sources. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) began in the 1990s to systematically collect damage estimates and cost data associated with its disaster assistance programs. Comparison of early damage estimates with actual expenditures in a California flood disaster reveals large errors in some estimates for individual counties, but no statistically significant tendency to underestimate or overestimate. Positive and negative errors tend to average out and the total damage estimate for the state approximates the final expenditures. Both comparisons indicate that damage estimates for small events or local jurisdictions often are extremely inaccurate. On the other hand, estimates aggregated over large areas or long time periods appear to be reasonably reliable; that is, this study finds that independent estimates for events with losses greater than $500 million disagree by less than 40. The paper suggests ways of interpreting and using such loss estimates to reduce the likelihood of misinterpretation.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation. 相似文献
8.
The purpose of this study is to assess the effectiveness of two flood damage reduction measures – designation and dyking of floodplains. The study was carried out in four Quebec municipalities located on the shores of Lac des Deux-Montagnes and Riviére des Mille-Iles, namely Sainte-Marthe-sur-le-Lac, Saint-Eustache, Rosemére and Bois-des-Filion. Criteria for selecting the study areas were: area of the flood-risk zone, presence or absence of dykes, presence or absence of buildings, and availability of data. The study areas were selected with the help of flood risk maps of the Greater Montreal region. In each area, information on the number of buildings and their economic value was taken from the municipality's property assessment database. Trends in the occupancy and value of floodplains were identified and compared. The results of the study show that, as in other regions of Canada, flood damage reduction measures based on designation and mapping of floodplains have had no impact on occupancy, have failed to reduce flood damages, and have not even halted increases in such damages. 相似文献
9.
The Canadian marine fisheries are presently in the midst of a grave crisis. On both the Atlantic and Pacific coasts, fish stocks have been depleted through overfishing. Fish habitats are being damaged or permanently destroyed through industrial development. Gross overcapacity exists in both the primary and secondary sectors of the fishing industry, which is primarily attributable to the common property status of the resource. Many fishermen and processors have been or are in states of near bankruptcy as increasing energy costs, high product inventories and market weakness have crippled operations. A lack of alternative employment opportunities for many participants coupled with a high regional and community dependence on depressed resource-based industries has confounded attempts by government to introduce measures leading to more rational fisheries management. The outcome has been a strategy characterized as ‘incremental ad hocery’. Major inquiries were conducted into both the Atlantic and Pacific fisheries in the early 1980s. Conflict between and among the federal and provincial governments, various sectors of the commercial fishery, Indian and recreational usergroups, fishery interests and other industries, as well as Canada and other nations, has made it difficult to implement needed reforms. Stock and habitat maintainence and improvement; user regulations, coupled with tenure rights for fishermen; and marketing research and promotion are accepted as key components of any long-run fishery management strategy. In the short-run, the need is to develop approaches that are implementable in the context of diverse conflicting and vested interests. 相似文献
10.
Flooding is a serious problem in Jakarta, and detailed estimation of flood damage is necessary to design optimal flood management strategies. This study aims to estimate flood damage in a densely populated area in Jakarta by means of a survey, to develop the relationship between flood characteristics and flood damage, and to compare the damage estimates from the survey with the damage estimates obtained by a flood damage model for Jakarta, i.e. the damage scanner model. We collected data on economic losses of the January 2013 flood in a survey of flood-affected households and business units in Pesanggrahan River. The actual flood damage in the survey area is US$ 0.5 million for the residential sector and US$ 0.7 million for the business sector. The flood damage for a similar event in the same area based on the damage scanner model is estimated to be US$ 1.3 million for the residential sector and US$ 9.2 million for the business sector. The flood damage estimates obtained by the survey approach are lower compared to the damage scanner approach due to different ways in obtaining flood damage data and in defining the maximum flood damage per object, the different spatial levels of analysis, and uncertainties in constructing the flood damage curves that were applied in the damage scanner model. 相似文献
11.
Effect of uncertainty in land use, damage models and inundation depth on flood damage estimates 总被引：8，自引：2，他引：6
With the recent transition to a more risk-based approach in flood management, flood risk models—being a key component in flood
risk management—are becoming increasingly important. Such models combine information from four components: (1) the flood hazard
(mostly inundation depth), (2) the exposure (e.g. land use), (3) the value of elements at risk and (4) the susceptibility
of the elements at risk to hydrologic conditions (e.g. depth–damage curves). All these components contain, however, a certain
degree of uncertainty which propagates through the calculation and accumulates in the final damage estimate. In this study,
an effort has been made to assess the influence of uncertainty in these four components on the final damage estimate. Different
land-use data sets and damage models have been used to represent the uncertainties in the exposure, value and susceptibility
components. For the flood hazard component, inundation depth has been varied systematically to estimate the sensitivity of
flood damage estimations to this component. The results indicate that, assuming the uncertainty in inundation depth is about
25 cm (about 15% of the mean inundation depth), the total uncertainty surrounding the final damage estimate in the case study
area can amount to a factor 5–6. The value of elements at risk and depth–damage curves are the most important sources of uncertainty
in flood damage estimates and can both introduce about a factor 2 of uncertainty in the final damage estimates. Very large
uncertainties in inundation depth would be necessary to have a similar effect on the uncertainty of the final damage estimate,
which seem highly unrealistic. Hence, in order to reduce the uncertainties surrounding potential flood damage estimates, these
components deserve prioritisation in future flood damage research. While absolute estimates of flood damage exhibit considerable
uncertainty (the above-mentioned factor 5–6), estimates for proportional changes in flood damages (defined as the change in
flood damages as a percentage of a base situation) are much more robust. 相似文献
12.
Pushkar Aggarwal 《Natural Hazards》2012,60(2):263-271
United States of America (US) Congress is considering a bill ‘H.R. 2555: Homeowners’ Defense Act of 2010’ to form National
Catastrophe Risk Consortium, one of whose functions is to fund a National Catastrophe Fund to help public and insurance companies
meet the liability claims from hurricane, fire, and blizzard. However, before the act is enacted into law by US Congress,
the bill has to pass through House Financial Services Committee which takes into account the projected costs, disbursements,
and the amount required to be appropriated for the task and its source. Using data for three catastrophes for the last 100 years,
the 2011 claims for hurricane, fire, and blizzard in United States of America are estimated. For predicting acres burned and
economic damage due to blizzards, a trend analysis and linear regression were carried out using Excel and GraphPad Prism.
Poisson distribution was used to model hurricanes. The estimates for the different catastrophes are based on a 95% confidence
interval. The cost to the National Catastrophe Fund for the liabilities of fire, blizzard, and hurricane comes to over 2 billion.
Of this, the bulk cost arises from fire damage, followed by hurricane damage and blizzard damage. 相似文献
13.
Hazus-MH earthquake modeling in the central USA 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
This investigation was undertaken to assess the sensitivity of the Hazus-MH (v2.0) earthquake model to model parameters and to guide the selection of these parameters for realistic earthquake-loss assessment in the central USA. To accomplish these goals, we performed several sensitivity analyses and a validation assessment using earthquake damage surveys from the 2008 M5.2 Mt. Carmel, Illinois earthquake. We evaluated the sensitivity of the Hazus-MH earthquake model to the selection of seismic hazard data, attenuation function, soils data, liquefaction data, and structural fragility curves. These sensitivity analyses revealed that earthquake damage, loss, and casualty estimates are most sensitive to the seismic hazard data and selection of the attenuation function. The selection of the seismic hazard data and attenuation function varied earthquake damages and capital-stock losses by ±68?% and casualty estimates by ±84?%. The validation assessment revealed that Hazus-MH overpredicted observed damages by 68?C221?% depending on the model parameters employed. The model run using region-specific soils, liquefaction, and structure fragility curves produced the most realistic damage estimate (within 68?% of actual damages). Damage estimates using default Hazus-MH parameters were overpredicted by 155?%. The uncertainties identified here are similar to uncertainties recognized in other Hazus-MH validation assessments. Despite uncertainties in Hazus-MH earthquake-loss estimates, such estimates are still useful for planning and response so long as the limitations of the results are properly conveyed to planners, decision makers, emergency responders, and the public. 相似文献
14.
This article examines the spatial dependence among housing losses due to tornadoes using data from the May 1999 Oklahoma City
tornado. In order to examine the existence of spatial dependence and its impacts on the damage analysis, we compare an estimation
based on a traditional ordinary least square model with the general spatial model. The results show that housing damage in
this disaster area is highly correlated. Monetary losses not only depend on the tornado that struck residences, but are related
to the damage magnitudes of neighboring houses. Average losses as well as the loss ratio increase with the Fujita Scale damage
rating. We conclude that the general spatial model provides unbiased estimates compared to the ordinary least square model.
In order to construct appropriate home insurance policies for tornado disasters or to improve the damage resistance capabilities
of houses, it is necessary for insurance underwriters and builders to consider spatial correlation of tornado damage.
相似文献
| Yongsheng Wang (Corresponding author)Email: |
15.
Simulation-based decision support system for flood damage assessment under uncertainty using remote sensing and census block information 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The level of damage of flood events does not solely depend on exposure to flood waters. Vulnerabilities due to various socio-economic
factors such as population at risk, public awareness, and presence of early warning systems, etc. should also be taken into
account. Federal and state agencies, watershed management coalitions, insurance companies, need reliable decision support
system to evaluate flood risk, to plan and design flood damage assessment and mitigation systems. In current practice, flood
damage evaluations are generally carried out based on results obtained from one dimensional (1D) numerical simulations. In
some cases, however, 1D simulation is not able to accurately capture the dynamics of the flood events. The present study describes
a decision support system, which is based on 2D flood simulation results obtained with CCHE2D-FLOOD. The 2D computational
results are complemented with information from various resources, such as census block layer, detailed survey data, and remote
sensing images, to estimate loss of life and direct damages (meso or micro scale) to property under uncertainty. Flood damage
calculations consider damages to residential, commercial, and industrial buildings in urban areas, and damages to crops in
rural areas. The decision support system takes advantage of fast raster layer operations in a GIS platform to generate flood
hazard maps based on various user-defined criteria. Monte Carlo method based on an event tree analysis is introduced to account
for uncertainties in various parameters. A case study illustrates the uses of the proposed decision support system. The results
show that the proposed decision support system allows stake holders to have a better appreciation of the consequences of the
flood. It can also be used for planning, design, and evaluation of future flood mitigation measures. 相似文献
16.
Monika Rohlmann 《GeoJournal》1993,29(4):405-412
Natural resource management is commonly described as a means to achieving environmental conservation. Integrated management, as a process which extends across recource disciplines and sectors, within and between government and private organizations, and with aims set for social and economic change, has been difficult to achieve. Several reasons are possible; however, property institutions appear to be of foremost influence. Drawing upon a field study during which the Inuvialuit's (a Canadian Inuit society) common property system, the Canadian government's state property regime, and the private property of citizens were evaluated, a conclusions is reached: prevailing property systems greatly influence the achievement of integrated natural resource management. The common property system of the Inuvialuit fosters an integrated approach, one which is less likely to emerge under state or private property regimes. Whether integrated natural resource management leads to what is popularly termed environmetal conservation is beyond the scope of this paper. However, it seems that the aims of environmental conservation are likely to be achieved under any one of the three property institutions: common, private, or state. 相似文献
17.
Athena Masson 《Natural Hazards》2014,72(2):617-632
There is a tendency to equate the word “hurricane” with the tropical regions of the world. Many residents do not recognize the danger and risks that occur when a tropical cyclone reaches colder subtropical waters and undergoes extratropical transition. Atlantic Canada, particularly the island of Newfoundland, is most at risk from extratropical transitions. The circumstances, location and dynamics of extratropical transitions in the North Atlantic have not been extensively studied. Consequently, forecasters continue to call approaching storms “hurricanes,” when most are extratropical cyclones by the time they reach Atlantic Canada. Newfoundland, in particular, has suffered devastating impacts from extratropical transition, notably Igor in 2010. Igor impacted Newfoundland as a Category 1 hybrid system, which was still undergoing extratropical transition. Igor was an example of a classic Cape Verde cyclone. Flooding was a severe problem, destroying property and roads and isolating communities. Total damages were estimated to be at least $110 million CAD with some values reaching as high as $200 million CAD. Fire and emergency services-Newfoundland and Labrador, the government of Canada, climatologists and meteorologists will benefit from a deeper understanding of extratropical transitions. Better forecasts could warn a given population of when and where a transition could take place and how best to prepare for the consequences. 相似文献
18.
我国雷电灾害及相关因素分析 总被引：14，自引：0，他引：14
为了更好地揭示雷电灾害的时空分布规律和成因机制过程,在1997—2006年全国雷电灾害数据库和星载闪电探测数据的基础上,分析研究了雷电灾害及相关因素的特征,包括雷电灾情、孕灾环境、致灾因子、承灾体及其相互作用,得到以下一些结果:①雷灾事故数、雷灾人员伤亡数与我国不同地区的致灾因子(闪电活动)、承灾体(人口和经济发展现况)成正相关;雷电灾情不同类型与承灾体类型(城乡人口比例、经济发展现况)有密切关系;②我国雷电灾情和闪电活动的时间特征是紧密相关的,同时雷电灾情的时间特征与人们的作息时间相关;③不同的孕灾环境下造成雷电伤害人员的方式特征不同,雷击死亡人数在农田最多,而受伤人数在建构筑物内最多;④80%的雷灾伤亡人员事故只涉及1~2人的生命安全,其中1人遭受雷击的占总事件的61%;⑤重大雷灾伤亡事件直接与承灾体的脆弱性有关。 相似文献
19.
Hervé Guyard Guillaume St-Onge Reinhard Pienitz Pierre Francus Bernd Zolitschka Garry K.C. Clarke Sonja Hausmann Veli-Pekka Salonen Patrick Lajeunesse Grégoire Ledoux Michel Lamothe 《Quaternary Science Reviews》2011,30(27-28):3892-3907
The Pingualuit Crater was formed by a meteoritic impact ca. 1.4 million years ago in northernmost Ungava (Canada). Due to its geographical position near the center of successive North American ice sheets and its favorable morphometry, the Pingualuit Crater Lake (water depth = 246 m) promises to yield a unique continuous sedimentary sequence covering several glacial/interglacial cycles in the terrestrial Canadian Arctic. In this paper, we suggest the existence of a subglacial lake at least during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) by hydraulic potential modeling using LGM ice-surface elevation and bed topography derived from a digital elevation model. These results support the hypothesis that the bottom sediments of the Crater Lake escaped glacial erosion and may contain a long-term continental sedimentary sequence. We also present the stratigraphy of a 9 m-long core retrieved from the deep basin of the lake as well as a multiproxy reconstruction of its deglacial and postglacial history. The base of the core is formed by very dense diamicton reflecting basal melt-out environments marking the end of subglacial conditions at the coring site. The overlying finely laminated silt are related to the onset of proglacial conditions characterized by extremely low lacustrine productivity. Infra Red Stimulated Luminescence and AMS 14C dating, as well as biostratigraphic data indicate sediment mixing between recent (e.g. Holocene) and much older (pre- to mid-Wisconsinan) material reworked by glacier activity. This process prevents the precise dating of these sediments that we interpret as being deposited just before the final deglaciation of the lake. Two finer grained and organic-rich intervals reflect the inception of lacustrine productivity resulting from the cessation of glacial meltwater inputs and ice-free periods. The lower organic interval corresponds to the early postglacial period (6850–5750 cal BP) and marks the transition between proglacial and postglacial conditions during the Holocene Thermal Maximum, while the uppermost organic-rich core section represents late Holocene sediments (～4200–600 cal BP). The organic intervals are separated by a basin-scale erosive slide occurring around 4200 cal BP and likely related to 1) a seismic event due to the glacio-isostatic rebound following the last deglaciation or 2) slope instabilities associated with rapid discharge events of the lake. 相似文献
20.
Flood of 1997 affected a large number of residents in the Red River Basin. Life disruption, economic damage, lengthy recovery process, physical and emotional trauma motivated a number of main initiatives to improve the level of preparedness in case of future floods. This review will focus on the involvement of the International Joint Commission (IJC). Personal experience is used in this review to emphasize a number of important lessons, of special relevance to Canadian portion of the basin, from the post flood activities. Level of preparedness for, and potential damage from future floods will benefit from focusing very serious effort on the improvement of the Canadian database, exchange of data with the U.S. and standardization of data collection, exchange and use. Tools for sustainable floodplain management are improving. However, the Red River Basin with its characteristics requires a special set of sophisticated tools that will enhance flood flow forecasting, planning of new flood control measures (structural and non-structural) and emergency operations of existing flood protection system. City of Winnipeg, being the largest population centre in the basin deserves a special attention. Additional protection of 670,000 people is required that will take into consideration temporal and spatial distribution of economic and social costs and benefits. 相似文献