共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 172 毫秒
1.
气象条件影响我国农业经济产出的计量经济分析 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
将计量经济学与气象学相结合,在经典C-D生产函数中引入气象因子构建气象计量经济模型,引入弹性和极差率的概念,定量分析了气象条件变化对我国农业经济产出的影响。结果表明:模型具有较高的拟合准确性,加入气象因子提高了对农业经济产出的整体拟合水平,初步证明了计量经济模型的合理性。受气象条件变化的综合影响,各行政区农业经济产出变化幅度为5%～85%,各区域农业经济产出变化幅度为3.4%～19.5%。计量经济学在气象领域的应用可以定量评估天气气候变化对社会经济的影响,为天气和气候变化研究提供了新方法,具有很好的应用前景。 相似文献
2.
气候与环境变化对我国的影响表现在自然、社会、经济和政治等各个方面。通过对我国气候与环境影响的评估，从生态系统、农业、水资源、重大工程等方面进行了论述。在此基础上，从冰冻圈、生态系统、土地退化、工业、交通、服务业、城市与生活等几个方面进行了气候影响的利弊分析。进而评估了气候变化对我国区域可持续发展的影响，提出了气候变化的适应与减缓对策。 相似文献
3.
构建一个经济-气候新模型评价气候变化对粮食产量的影响 总被引：8，自引：1，他引：7
将气候变化研究和农业经济研究相结合,构建了一个经济-气候新模型,用来评价全球气候变化对粮食产量影响的问题。提出在经济模型C-D生产函数中添加气候变化因子,建立一个新的评价模型,作为连接气候变化因素和经济变化因素的桥梁,并对该模型的性能及合理性进行了初步的模拟和验证。 相似文献
4.
将模糊理论运用到高校科技投入-产出决策中,建立高校投入-产出决策模糊综合评价模型,并对我国31个地区2010年高校科技投入-产出决策进行实证分析.在模型中,将高校科技产出指标作为高校科技投入决策的评价指标,计算科技投入-产出决策的隶属度并进行排序.分析结果表明,高校R&D经费和人员投入水平高的地区,其隶属度越大,该地区的高校科技投入决策相对较优,而高校科技隶属度水平低的地区,经费投入是限制其发展的主要因素. 相似文献
5.
解读政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)第六次评估报告(AR6)粮食系统的影响与适应,对科学认识国际气候变化对农业影响学科前沿动态具有重要意义。最新发布的IPCC AR6在深化阐述粮食生产能力、种植布局、病虫害影响的基础上,高度确信人类活动导致的气候变暖对粮食系统产生了负面影响,论述了粮食运输及消费中的气候风险,解析了粮食生产-存储-运输-消费的全链条气候变化影响,延展了影响评估归因内容并丰富了农业环境影响等相关科学认识。对于粮食系统的适应能力,强调适应及减缓协同发展的气候恢复力发展路径,适应评估从适应能力、适应方式等理论逐步转向适应实施行动和成效评估,并注重适应行动的区域特异性和有效性。本次评估强调了气候变化对作物影响的检测和归因、关注了气候和农业环境变化复合影响、倡导基于生态系统的适应方案和技术,评估了现有适应技术的可行性和成效。报告内容对中国强化农业影响评估能力及把握国际学科动态具有参考价值。 相似文献
6.
陕北黄土丘陵沟壑区农户气候变化的适应行为及影响因素分析 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
从农户个体微观视角,研究农业的活动主体--农户的气候变化适应行为。选择陕北黄土丘陵沟壑区,采用问卷调查和半结构式访谈相结合的方法研究农户气候变化感知与适应行为,运用二元逻辑回归模型分析影响该地区农户适应行为的因素。结果表明：农户对气候变化趋势感知比较一致,认为近5 年夏季和冬季气温升高,降水减少,但与实际观测存在一定偏差。农户应对气候变化采取适应行为的比重并不高,只有57.8% 的农户表示采取了相应的措施来应对气候变化。农户适应行为受气候变化感知的影响,此外,家庭社会经济属性对农户采取适应行为的概率影响显著,而性别、年龄、文化程度等人口属性因素与农户采取适应行为的概率关系不大。 相似文献
7.
8.
气候变化的影响与适应已经成为农业生产面临的现实而紧迫的问题。1956-2005年东北地区增温1.5℃,幅度明显高于全国平均水平,给作物生产带来复杂的影响。东北是重要的国家商品粮生产基地,对国家粮食安全起着重要作用。探讨区域层面上适应气候变化的能力建设更具有针对性和现实性。文章分析了近50 a来东北地区气候变化的主要表现及其对农业生产的影响;针对气候变化过程中人类活动对土地利用和温室气体的影响,提出了东北地区适应和减缓气候变化的策略和措施,强调在农业生态、水资源利用、环境保护等多方面综合开展工作,积极采取行动,最终达到维护气候环境、充分利用气候资源的目的,为东北粮食生产安全、农业可持续发展做出贡献。 相似文献
9.
IPCC于2019年8月7日通过了《气候变化与土地特别报告》决策者摘要,报告第3章评估了气候变化与荒漠化的关系,取得了一些新认识,包括全球旱地(dryland)和荒漠化的范围、荒漠化过程与影响因素、荒漠化的检测与归因、荒漠化对自然和社会经济系统的影响、荒漠化对气候变化的反馈、未来气候变化对荒漠化的影响与风险,应对荒漠化与适应和减缓气候变化的联系。在估计荒漠化变化、荒漠化变化检测与归因、荒漠化对自然和社会经济系统的影响、荒漠化对气候变化的反馈、应对荒漠化与适应和减缓气候变化联系方面还存在不足。这些评估结果对我国认识旱地和荒漠化范围的变化、影响荒漠化因素、荒漠化过程、荒漠化变化检测与归因,荒漠化对自然和社会经济系统的影响、荒漠化对气候变化的反馈、未来气候变化对荒漠化的影响与风险,以及防治荒漠化与适应和减缓气候变化方面等都有重要的启示。 相似文献
10.
气候变化和城市化是使得人类更容易遭受灾害影响的两大因素,这两个因素在城市群叠加,使其成为容易遭受灾害侵袭并造成重大损失的高风险区。中国沿海地区五大城市群经济实力雄厚,是国家经济社会发展的重要引擎。但其处于海-陆交互作用地带,受海陆复合型灾害的影响,而且承灾体庞大,在气候变化背景下更容易遭受重大灾害损失。建议国家相关部门充分认识到沿海城市群应对气候变化影响的紧迫性,尽快提出应对策略,并将气候变化的影响和适应对策纳入沿海城市区域的各种社会经济发展规划。 相似文献
11.
Juan-Carlos Ciscar László Szabó Denise van Regemorter Antonio Soria 《Climatic change》2012,112(1):127-142
The PESETA project has estimated the physical effects of climate change in Europe for the following impact categories with
a market valuation: agriculture, river floods, coastal systems and tourism. Four alternative scenarios of future climate change
have been considered. The computable general equilibrium (CGE) GEM-E3 model for Europe has been used to integrate the PESETA
damages under a consistent economic framework. The approach followed has been to assess the effects of future climate (as
of 2080s) on today’s economy. This article details the way each sectoral impact has been integrated into the CGE model. The
EU welfare loss is estimated to be in a range of 0.2% to 1%, depending on the climate future and the projected sea level rise.
Results show that the Southern Europe region appears as the most vulnerable area to climate change. Impacts in coastal systems,
agriculture and river floods determine the overall and regional pattern of impacts within Europe. 相似文献
12.
针对全球气候变化而引发国家间减排责任的争吵,需要各国从生产和消费的角度来认识二氧化碳排放,国家内部区域之间减排责任的分担也应该从生产和消费两个角度加以认识。为此,本文利用投入产出分析方法和EEBT(双边贸易隐含排放)核算方法核算河北省的二氧化碳排放,发现河北省生产型二氧化碳排放远大于其消费型二氧化碳排放,其中国内流出/流入引发的二氧化碳排放量较大。在利用SDA(结构分解分析法)分析影响贸易隐含二氧化碳排放变化因素时,发现行业二氧化碳排放强度变化对隐含二氧化碳排放具有积极影响,而国民经济行业之间技术经济关系的变化对隐含二氧化碳排放具有消极影响。因此,河北省在利用技术手段降低行业二氧化碳排放强度的同时,还要筛选关键性部门加以重点管理。同时,河北省贸易隐含二氧化碳排放及其影响因素变化对国家制定区域减排责任也有较强参考价值。 相似文献
13.
林而达 许吟隆 蒋金荷 李玉娥 杨修 张建云 李从先 吴绍洪 赵宗群 吴建国 居辉 严昌荣 王守荣 刘允芬 杜碧兰 赵成义 秦保芳 刘春蓁 黄朝迎 张小全 马世铭 《气候变化研究进展》2006,2(2):51-56
已经观测到的气候变化影响是显著的、多方面的。各个领域和地区都存在有利和不利影响,但以不利影响为主,未来的气候变暖将会对中国的生态系统、农业以及水资源等部门和沿海地区产生重大的不利影响。采取适应措施可以减轻气候变化的不利影响,应将适应气候变化的行动逐步纳入国民经济和社会发展的中长期规划中。由于我国科学研究的相对不足和科学认识能力的局限,目前的气候变化影响评估方法和结果还存在很大的不确定性。应当加强区域适应气候变化的案例研究、扩大研究领域、加强极端天气、气候事件影响的研究,以降低影响评估的不确定性,并提出切实可行的适应对策。 相似文献
14.
Torben K. Mideksa 《Global Environmental Change》2010,20(2):278-286
Climate change is likely to harm developing economies that generate major portion of their GDP from climate sensitive sectors. This paper computes economy-wide impact of climate change and its distributional consequence with the help of a sector wise disaggregated general equilibrium model using Ethiopia as a case. The projected climate shock reduces output in the sector with the strongest forward and backward linkage to the rest of the economy and redistributes income by changing the returns to inputs owned by various agents. The results suggest that climate change will make the prospect of economic development harder in at least two ways: first, by reducing agricultural production and output in the sectors linked to the agricultural sector, which is likely to reduce Ethiopia's GDP by about 10% from its benchmark level; and second, by raising the degree of income inequality in which the Gini-coefficient increases by 20%, which is likely to further decrease economic growth and fuel poverty. Thus, climate change is expected to increase the fraction of people in poverty by reducing the size of the total pie and redistributing it more unevenly. 相似文献
15.
Maciej Sadowski 《Climatic change》2008,90(4):443-451
Adopted by COP 10 (Dec 1/CP.10) and approved by the MOP1, the Buenos Aires programme of adaptation and response measures opens
doors to intensify preparations for expected climate change. By this decision the COP, requested the SBSTA to develop a structured
5-year programme of work of the SBSTA on the scientific, technical and socio-economic aspects of impacts of, and vulnerability
and adaptation to, climate change. Consequently, the COP, by its decision 2/CP.11, adopted the “Five-year programme of work
of the Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice on impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change”
Finally during COP12 this programme was approved as “Nairobi Work Programme on impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to climate
change”. This programme has fundamental significance not only for developing countries, but also for industrialized nations
in which some sectors of the or social life are particularly vulnerable to climate change, specifically, inter alia EIT countries and new EU Member States. Further development of this adaptation programme economy should contain steps that
provide optimum economic and social effectiveness, risk management, identification of vulnerable sectors and gaps in knowledge,
preparation of a list of policy options, including an analysis of cost effectiveness, selection of the most effective policies,
and a preparedness implementation plan. In Poland the preliminary adaptation programme covered agriculture, water management,
and coastal zone management. For the time being, gaps in knowledge and preparedness measures have been identified. An estimation
of possible impact on these areas was based on chosen GCMs, and sea level rise IPCC scenarios. In conclusion, it was stated
that the results achieved should be seen as a first step forward and a more comprehensive study is necessary to update the
results and cover other sectors of the economy, such as health protection, spatial planning, ecosystems and forestry, and
to develop specific guidelines and recommendations for policy-makers. 相似文献
16.
农业作为响应气候变化最敏感的领域之一,未来作物产量可能受到深刻影响。量化气候变化冲击作物产量导致的最终经济影响,需要综合“气候变化—作物产量—经济影响”开展链式研究。文中采用系统回顾和Meta回归分析方法整合了55篇文献的667项研究结果,推导出我国七大地区主要作物（水稻、玉米、小麦）产量与地区内未来温度和降水变化的定量关系,并将其作为农业部门的损失量代入改进的多区域投入产出模型,量化七大地区内与地区间遭受的经济波及影响（ERE)。结果显示：(1)气候变化对我国作物产量的影响主要体现在温度升高上,每升温1℃减产2.6%~12.7%,东北和西北地区作物受升温影响最显著;(2) 气候变化导致的作物减产将对经济产生更严重的波及影响,GDP因作物减产每下降1%将额外产生17.8%的波及影响;(3) 21世纪末,若不考虑CO2肥效作用,作物减产导致的ERE将占GDP的-0.1%~13.6%（负值表示收益),最悲观情况下ERE与当前我国农业总产值相当（2012年为基准年);(4)不同地区受ERE影响程度的差异较大,因各区之间产业结构、贸易联系及经济发展程度存在差异,西南地区遭受本区及来自其他地区的ERE比华东地区高2.8~8.5倍。 相似文献
17.
气候变化已成为当今科学界、各国政府和社会公众普遍关注的环境问题之一,气候变化可能对生态系统和社会经济产生灾难性影响,农业是受气候变化影响最直接的脆弱行业。因此,气候变化对农业生产的影响研究一直是气候变化研究领域中的热点问题之一。该文系统介绍了有关全球气候变化对中国农业生产影响研究的现状与进展,包括气候变化对农业影响的研究方法、大气中温室气体浓度增加对农作物的影响试验、气候变化对农业气候资源的影响、气候变化对农作物生长发育和产量的影响、气候变化对农业种植制度和品种布局的影响、气候变化对农作物气候生产潜力和气候资源利用率的影响等,指出当前在研究气候变化对农业影响评估中存在的问题,提出了今后应加强对气候变化情景和预测模式不确定性的研究、气候变化对农业影响的方法研究。此外,气候变化背景下极端天气气候事件对农业生产的影响以及气候变化对农业病虫害的影响研究等仍较薄弱,有待进一步加强和深入。 相似文献
18.
This paper evaluates the role of trade as a mechanism of economic adjustment to the impacts of climate change on agriculture.
The study uses a model of the world economy able to reflect changes in comparative advantage; the model is used to test the
hypotheses that trade can assure that, first, satisfying global agricultural demand will not be jeopardized, and, second,
general access to food will not decrease. The hypotheses are tested for three alternative scenarios of climate change; under
each scenario, regions adjust to the climatic assumptions by changing the land areas devoted to agriculture and the mix of
agricultural goods produced, two of the major mechanisms of agricultural adaptation. We find that trade makes it possible
to satisfy the world demand for agricultural goods under the changed physical conditions. However, access to food decreases
in some regions of the world. Other patterns also emerge that indicate areas of concern in relying on trade as a mechanism
for the adjustment of agriculture to likely future changes in climate. 相似文献
19.
气候变化国家评估报告(Ⅱ):气候变化的影响与适应 总被引：10，自引：1，他引：10
Significant and various impacts of climate change have been observed in China, showing both positive and adverse effects, dominantly the latter, in different sectors and regions. It is very likely that future climate change would cause significant adverse impacts on the ecosystems, agriculture, water resources, and coastal zones in China. Adoption of adaptive measures to climate change can alleviate the adverse impact, therefore such measures should be incorporated into the medium-and long-term national economic and social development plans. Because China has done relatively limited research on impact assessment and our understanding of climate change is incomplete, the current impact assessment methodologies used and results obtained contain many uncertainties. To reduce the uncertainties and develop effective and practical climate change adaptive measures in China, it is necessary to emphasize regional case studies on adaptive measures, enlarge the scope of climate change research, and strengthen the assessment of the impacts resulted from extreme weather/climate events. 相似文献
20.
Agricultural sectors play a key role in the economics of climate change. Land as an input to agricultural production is one of the most important links between economy and the biosphere, representing a direct projection of human action on the natural environment. Agricultural management practices and cropping patterns exert an enormous effect on biogeochemical cycles, freshwater availability and soil quality. Agriculture also plays an important role in emitting and storing greenhouse gases. To consistently investigate climate policy and future pathways for the economic and natural environment, a realistic representation of agricultural land use is essential. Top—down Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models have increasingly been used for this purpose. CGE models simulate the simultaneous equilibrium in a set of interdependent markets, and are especially suited to analyze agricultural markets from a global perspective. However, modeling agricultural sectors in CGE models is not a trivial task, mainly because of differences in temporal and geographic aggregation scales. This study surveys some proposed modeling strategies and highlights different tradeoffs involved in the various approaches. Coupling of top-down and bottom-up models is found to be the most applicable for comprehensive analysis of agriculture in prism of climate change. However, linking interdisciplinary data, methods and outputs is still the major obstacle to be solved for wide-scale implementation. 相似文献