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1.
Presented is a brief characteristic of structurally new grid-box mathematical model for calculation of characteristics of hydrological regime of reservoirs of any size and residence time, morphological class and hydroeconomic purpose, with time resolution of 24 h and depth increment of 1 m. Presented are the results of its verification, as well as the fragments of results of diagnostic calculation of changes in vertical distribution of temperature, mineralization, and discharges of katabatic, density, wind drift and compensated flows in separate segments of four reaches of the Rybinsk Reservoir in case of weather changing for all seasons of two years with extreme flow. 相似文献
2.
气象台站历史沿革信息包含了可能影响气候资料序列均一性的重要信息, 是分析、检验、订正气候资料序列的科学参考依据。文章介绍了气象台站历史沿革信息的基本内容及我国气象台站变动的基本情况, 通过对气象观测资料比较分析, 说明台站迁移、环境变化、观测仪器类型以及观测时制改变, 直接影响到观测记录的比较性和连续性, 对长年代气候资料序列的均一性也有不同程度的影响。 相似文献
3.
Compared are the estimates or regional changes in temperature and precipitation on the territory of Russia for two methods of the spatial averaging of meteorological station data, one of which is adapted to the sparse observational network and takes account of the station weights proportional to the area of their influence. Considered are several variants of the zoning with the separation of the different number of regions. Formulated is a criterion of the zoning adequacy to the problem of the revelation and analysis of regional climate changes. Estimated is the representativeness of the network of observations of temperature and precipitation for separate regions. Presented are the estimates of regional trends of air temperature and precipitation for the century interval and for the recent decades obtained on the basis of the full archive of available data for the zoning attached to the administrative division of the Russian Federation into the federal districts. 相似文献
4.
本文讨论了夏季纬向不对称气候平均流下通过正压大气内部动力过程建立遥相关型的问题。首先详细描述和讨论了有利发展扰动型的概念及其计算方法。作为对比，对正规模不稳定进行了分析。结果表明，正规模的不稳定增长率很小，难以用于解释遥相关型的发展。而有利发展扰动型的计算分析表明，最有利发展的那些扰动型的振幅增长率同实际大气遥相关型的增长率相一致，并且这些有利发展扰动型都将演变为同实际大气相一致的遥相关型结构。从而提出了，至少部分实际大气遥相关型可以不依赖于异常外源强迫，而仅依赖于大气内部的正压过程即能量转换过程而建立起来。 相似文献
5.
O. I. Prokopov 《Russian Meteorology and Hydrology》2011,36(7):467-475
Within the frameworks of the presented model, the beginning of the spring and autumn hydrological seasons depends on the temperature
regime of air flows in the region under investigation. As compared with the standard procedure of season determination, this
model is more flexible in taking account of the probabilistic nature of the time of the beginning of hydrological seasons
and variations of their duration. It ensures a higher reliability of estimates of thermal surface water properties and analysis
of their evolution within the seasons and annual cycles. A considerable irregularity in the time of the beginning of spring
and autumn seasons and a possibility of significant fluctuations of their duration changes the estimation of thermal surface
water conditions so considerably that the initial (calendar) model can be no longer considered as the source of reliable information. 相似文献
6.
Popov’s infiltration-capacitive model of the spring runoff, including the computation of the runoff losses due to evaporation
in the period of snow melting and losses due to evaporation and absorption in the period of exhaustion of the sheet inflow
into the channel net, is used. Equations to forecast the spring snowmelt flood runoff, taking account of the frozen soil melting,
are derived. The method of estimation of their parameters on the base of the joint use of linear regression and optimization
methods is realized. It is demonstrated that factors of the autumn moistening and freezing of soils of basins in the beginning
of winter influence the spring runoff losses. The integrated index of the initial state of the basin, taking account of mentioned
factors, is proposed. 相似文献
7.
A. A. Lavrova E. S. Glebova I. V. Trosnikov V. D. Kaznacheeva 《Russian Meteorology and Hydrology》2010,35(6):363-370
Due to the complex orography and the presence of the moisture-saturated air, the Mediterranean region is characterized by
the increased baroclinic and convective instability, that leads to the sudden cyclogenesis and the formation of dangerous
weather phenomena. The results are given of the investigation of formation mechanisms of Mediterranean cyclones, peculiarities
of stages of their evolution and dynamical processes, which occur throughout the atmosphere, using the regional numerical
ETA model of the atmosphere by the example of individual cases of the cyclogenesis over the Mediterranean Sea. It is revealed
that the cold Arctic air outbreak (the intrusion of the cold Arctic air) to the south of the Western Europe, leading to the
formation of the areas of the baroclinic instability and the increased moisture content of the air in the area of the vortex
origin, favors the cyclogenesis. The use of the vertical coordinate η in the model enabled to compute more precisely the vertical
wind speed, therefore, the influence of the orography on the moisture content and precipitation increase became pronounced.
The transformation of the structure of meteorological fields in the course of the development of vortexes is considered. The
computation of the helicity is made, and it is shown that this characteristic can be one of the earliest predictors of cyclogenesis. 相似文献
8.
S. S. Budrin G. I. Dolgikh S. G. Dolgikh E. I. Yaroshchuk 《Russian Meteorology and Hydrology》2014,39(1):47-52
Analyzed are the experimental data on the range of the sea wind waves obtained using a laser meter of hydrospheric pressure variations in 2007, 2010, 2011, and 2012 at different points of the shelf of the Sea of Japan. It is demonstrated that the variations of wind wave periods at their leaving the zone of cyclonic action can be associated not only with the dispersion but also with the Doppler effect and variations of the wind speed and wind direction in the zone of cyclonic action. Carried out was the analysis of the results of the processing of experimental data of the laser meter of hydrospheric pressure variations and the mobile laser meter of hydrospheric pressure variations; this analysis revealed that the transformation of wind waves with the decrease in the period and energy takes place in the case of their movement along the shelf of the decreasing depth. 相似文献
9.
用滑动t-检验方法(Moving t-tcst technique)对中国东部部分地区年降水量序列进行阶段分析,从各阶段气候性态频率分布特征得到启示．对气候系统性态行为的复杂性进行探索。提出气候系统性态行为的确定性与随机性份额比接近Fibonacci数(黄金分割比)的假设。用信息论的方法对气候变量的不确定性做了定量计算和分析，讨论了气候预测的局限性．提出气候预测(以年降水量为例)准确率的理论上限在中国北方可能为75％左右：在中国南方可能为80％左右。 相似文献
10.
The method of the plotting of probabilistic distributions of maximum runoff characteristics on the base of the dynamic-stochastic
model of the river runoff formation, enabling to take account of the changes in runoff formation conditions caused by the
anthropogenic activity at the river catchment, is described. To approximate the plotted distributions, it is proposed to use
Johnson distribution where one of parameters is assumed to be equal to the deterministic estimate of the limiting value of
the runoff characteristic. It is assumed that such an approach will increase the accuracy of the determination of the runoff
values of small exceedance probabilities. The potential of the proposed method is shown by the example of determination of
probabilistic characteristics of the River Vyatka maximum runoff. 相似文献
11.
Patterns of propagation of aerosol particles generated in the hygroscopic seeding of convective clouds from antihail rockets is studied. Effects of the salt particle dispersity on condensational growth rate of separate cloud droplets on these particles are studied; analytical formulas are obtained as describing change of radius of the NaCl crystal and of the cloud droplet which grows on the crystal till the moment of full dissolving of the crystal in the droplet. Numerical computations are used for comparative analysis of the salt effect on intensification of condensational growth of the droplets in the cloud. 相似文献
12.
Considered are the processes of condensation in the cloud of explosive gases containing the vapor of crystallizing reagent. It is demonstrated that the stable condensation nuclei of critical size originate mainly at the moment of the transition of explosive products into the ideal gas. The rate of origination of embryonic reagent particles capable of further growth is computed for a number of explosive substances on the basis of the Volmer theory. 相似文献
13.
M. G. Alishaev 《Russian Meteorology and Hydrology》2013,38(8):522-530
Presented are the computations of condensation and precipitation of atmospheric moisture at night depending on the diurnal variations of air temperature and air humidity. Used are the meteorological data for northern Dagestan. Determined is the contribution of the dew to the moistening of the soil. The examples of the exponential and lognormal distribution of droplets revealed that the use of the velocity of medium-size droplet underestimates the value of the moisture mass precipitated on the soil. A concept of the mean mass precipitation velocity is introduced, and the formulae are provided for determining the average mass of deposited condensate depending on humidity, the temperature drop, and size distribution of droplets. Posed is a new problem of diurnal condensate precipitation in the soil in summer and of technology of its increase. 相似文献
14.
A. S. Kukushkin 《Russian Meteorology and Hydrology》2013,38(7):486-495
Considered are the effects of suspended matter content and water mass dynamics on the formation of optical structure of water in the upper layer of the deep part of the Black Sea using the data of long-term simultaneous observations. It is demonstrated that the peculiarities of horizontal distribution of the depth of transparent and turbid optical layers depend on the distribution of hydrological parameters characterizing the dynamic processes in the upper layer of the sea. Computed and analyzed are the parameters of regression relationship between the beam attenuation coefficient and the concentration of organic and total suspension and chlorophyll-a as well as between the depth of transparent layer and the position of the lower boundary of cold intermediate layer in different dynamic formations in spring, summer, and autumn. 相似文献
15.
16.
M. G. Grechushnikova 《Russian Meteorology and Hydrology》2014,39(3):195-202
Presented are the results of computation of variations of hydrological characteristics in the reservoirs of different types of the Moscow River water system in the case of the predicted global warming (variations of flowage, of ice thermal regime, and stratification of water column) at the realization of the most adverse scenario for the Moscow water supply consisting in the reduction of the annual runoff layer and the runoff layer during the high-water period. 相似文献
17.
Variation of the number of days with thunderstorms on the territory of Belarus and peculiarities of their formation are considered.
This number is of great spatial and temporal variability. The spatial variability of this thunderstorm characteristic in Belarus
was estimated with the use of mapping. The temporal series of the number of days with thunderstorms were studied with the
aid of standard statistical methods. 相似文献
18.
本文用WKBJ方法讨论了叠加在Hoskins-Bretherton［1］]锋生模型背景上的小扰动发展问题。考虑了大尺度变形场、锋区斜压气流及锋生环流对扰动发展的作用，发现锋生过程有利于与锋平行的中小尺度扰动发展，而锋消则有利于沿锋传播的横波型扰动发展。 相似文献
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20.
正、斜压涡度拟能相互作用对乌拉尔阻塞过程的影响 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
研究表明,正压涡度拟能的增强和减弱是乌拉尔山上空阻塞过程的重要特征,正压涡度拟能增强的主要机制是斜压涡度拟能向正压涡度拟能的转换,而斜压涡度拟能的来源则是阻塞区外斜压涡度拟能向阻塞区的净输送和阻塞区内斜压涡度拟能的净生成。正压涡度拟能减弱的主要机制足耗散机制和β效应。因此。阻塞过程是正、斜压涡度拟能相互作用的结果。纬向斜压风对斜压涡度的输送在阻塞的维持和崩溃中具有重要的作用,经向斜压风对斜压涡度的输送在阻塞环流的建立中具有重要的作用,经向正压风对正压涡度拟能的净输送和斜压风对涡度拟能的净输送也具有重要贡献。 相似文献