共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 343 毫秒
1.
Different models were developed for evaluating the probabilistic three-dimensional (3-D) stability analysis of earth slopes
and embankments under earthquake loading using both the safety factor and the displacement criteria of slope failure. In the
3-D analysis, the critical and total slope widths become two new and important parameters. The probabilistic models evaluate
the probability of failure under seismic loading and consider the different sources of uncertainties involved in the problem,
i.e. uncertainties stemming from the discrepancies between laboratory-measured and in situ values of shear strength parameters,
randomness of earthquake occurrence, and earthquake-induced acceleration. The models also take into consideration the spatial
variabilities and correlations of soil properties. The developed models are incorporated in a computer program, PTDDSSA (probabilistic
three-dimensional dynamic slope stability analysis). These developed analysis/design procedures are incorporated within a
code named SARETL (stability analysis and remediation of earthquake-triggered landslides) that was developed in this study
for stability analysis and remediation of earthquake-triggered landslides. In addition to the dynamic inertia forces; the
developed system takes into consideration the local site effects. The code is capable of: 1. Prediction of permanent deformations
that result from landslides under seismic loading using both probabilistic and deterministic approaches. 2. The assessment
of landslide hazard that affects major transportation routes in the event of earthquakes, and the preparation of earthquake-induced
landslide hazard maps (i.e. maps that show expected displacements and probability of slope/embankments failure) for different
earthquakes magnitudes and environmental conditions. 3. Proposing a mitigation strategy against landslides and suggesting
guidelines for remedial measures. The developed expert system is applied to a major highway case study. Design maps are developed
for the highway under seismic loading.
Received: 18 March 1999 · Accepted: 11 October 1999 相似文献
2.
Dalia Bach Kirschbaum Robert Adler Yang Hong Sujay Kumar Christa Peters-Lidard Arthur Lerner-Lam 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2012,66(6):1683-1696
The increasing availability of remotely sensed data offers a new opportunity to address landslide hazard assessment at larger
spatial scales. A prototype global satellite-based landslide hazard algorithm has been developed to identify areas that may
experience landslide activity. This system combines a calculation of static landslide susceptibility with satellite-derived
rainfall estimates and uses a threshold approach to generate a set of ‘nowcasts’ that classify potentially hazardous areas.
A recent evaluation of this algorithm framework found that while this tool represents an important first step in larger-scale
near real-time landslide hazard assessment efforts, it requires several modifications before it can be fully realized as an
operational tool. This study draws upon a prior work’s recommendations to develop a new approach for considering landslide
susceptibility and hazard at the regional scale. This case study calculates a regional susceptibility map using remotely sensed
and in situ information and a database of landslides triggered by Hurricane Mitch in 1998 over four countries in Central America.
The susceptibility map is evaluated with a regional rainfall intensity–duration triggering threshold and results are compared
with the global algorithm framework for the same event. Evaluation of this regional system suggests that this empirically
based approach provides one plausible way to approach some of the data and resolution issues identified in the global assessment.
The presented methodology is straightforward to implement, improves upon the global approach, and allows for results to be
transferable between regions. The results also highlight several remaining challenges, including the empirical nature of the
algorithm framework and adequate information for algorithm validation. Conclusions suggest that integrating additional triggering
factors such as soil moisture may help to improve algorithm performance accuracy. The regional algorithm scenario represents
an important step forward in advancing regional and global-scale landslide hazard assessment. 相似文献
3.
Assessment of shallow landslide susceptibility using the transient infiltration flow model and GIS-based probabilistic approach 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
This study proposes a probabilistic analysis method for modeling rainfall-induced shallow landslide susceptibility by combining a transient infiltration flow model and Monte Carlo simulations. The spatiotemporal change in pore water pressure over time caused by rainfall infiltration is one of the most important factors causing landslides. Therefore, the transient infiltration hydrogeological model was adopted to estimate the pore water pressure within the hill slope and to analyze landslide susceptibility. In addition, because of the inherent uncertainty and variability caused by complex geological conditions and the limited number of available soil samples over a large area, this study utilized probabilistic analysis based on Monte Carlo simulations to account for the variability in the input parameters. The analysis was performed in a geographic information system (GIS) environment because GIS can deal efficiently with a large volume of spatial data. To evaluate its effectiveness, the proposed analysis method was applied to a study area that had experienced a large number of landslides in July 2006. For the susceptibility analysis, a spatial database of input parameters and a landslide inventory map were constructed in a GIS environment. The results of the landslide susceptibility assessment were compared with the landslide inventory, and the proposed approach demonstrated good predictive performance. In addition, the probabilistic method exhibited better performance than the deterministic alternative. Thus, analysis methods that account for uncertainties in input parameters are more appropriate for analysis of an extensive area, for which uncertainties may significantly affect the predictions because of the large area and limited data. 相似文献
4.
A new probabilistic methodology for landslide hazard assessment in regional scale using Copula modeling technique is presented. The current probabilistic landslide hazard analyses are performed under the assumption that landslide hazard elements, such as magnitude, frequency, and location, are independent. In this paper, a general approach is proposed to consider the possible dependence among hazard elements. Part of the Seattle, WA area was selected to evaluate the competence of the presented method. A total of 357 slope failure events and their corresponding topography and geology data were included in the study to develop and test the model. Based on the results, the mean success rates of the presented model in predicting landslide occurrence are 90 % in hazardous area and 12 % in safe locations on average, while these success rates are 63 and 44 % when these hazard elements were treated as mutually independent. 相似文献
5.
A New Zealand Landslide Database has been developed to hold all of New Zealand’s landslide data and provide factual data for use in landslide hazard and risk assessment, including a probabilistic landslide hazard model for New Zealand, which is currently being developed by GNS Science. Design of a national Landslide Database for New Zealand required consideration of existing landslide data stored in a variety of digital formats and future data yet to be collected. Pre-existing landslide datasets were developed and populated with data reflecting the needs of the landslide or hazard project, and the database structures of the time. Bringing these data into a single database required a new structure capable of containing landslide information at a variety of scales and accuracy, with many different attributes. A unified data model was developed to enable the landslide database to be a repository for New Zealand landslides, irrespective of scale and method of capture. Along with landslide locations, the database may contain information on the timing of landslide events, the type of landslide, the triggering event, volume and area data, and impacts (consequences) for each landslide when this information is available. Information from contributing datasets include a variety of sources including aerial photograph interpretation, field reconnaissance and media accounts. There are currently 22,575 landslide records in the database that include point locations, polygons of landslide source and deposit areas, and linear landslide features. Access to all landslide data is provided with a web application accessible via the Internet. This web application has been developed in-house and is based on open-source software such as the underlying relational database (PostGIS) and the map generating Web Map Server (GeoServer). Future work is to develop automated data-upload routines and mobile applications to allow people to report landslides, adopting a consistent framework. 相似文献
6.
Landslide hazard zoning is gaining importance in recent years. In such endeavours one deals with areas of large extent with limited data on material properties and certain other controlling factors. However, zoning is not a site-specific design activity and requires certain generalizations to be made. While field observations are essential, analytical procedures, where applicable, are of tremendous help in assessing the level of hazard potential. A probabilistic approach, used in assessing the slumping hazard of bluffs along the southwestern shoreline of Lake Superior is described. In this approach, those factors which are to be estimated, such as internal friction angle, cohesion intercept, position of stratigraphic unit interfaces, and ground-water table, based on limited actual data are generated in random combinations using the Monte Carlo method. Twenty conventional slip circle analyses using these sets of random combinations suffice to provide an assessment of landslide probability. Segments of the shoreline are classified on the basis of three probabilistic classes and the landslide probability thus assigned is compared with the hazard potential determined using the conventional deterministic method. The probabilistic approach is found to be a useful tool which minimizes the pressure to make arbitrary decisions while not eliminating engineering judgement and use of all existing information.There is some correspondence between the hazard classification given by the deterministic and the probabilistic methods; however, the correlation is not a good one. The probabilistic approach provides a more rational basis for determining the landslide hazard potential and for hazard zoning. 相似文献
7.
国际滑坡风险评估与管理指南研究综述 总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7
总结了国际主流滑坡风险评估与管理技术指南的进展和现状,综述了滑坡风险管理范畴中包含的理论和技术框架,研究精度和层次,滑坡编录、易发性、危险性和风险分区研究的技术方法;指出了滑坡风险分区成果的误差来源和可靠性验证方法;基于滑坡风险分区的研究成果,提出了土地利用规划中风险控制措施的建议。总结了主流国家和地区滑坡风险管理的发展历程和经验,结合中国地质灾害防灾减灾的现状,强调了出版滑坡风险评估与管理指南的紧迫性,并展望了滑坡等突发地质灾害风险评估与管理的发展前景。 相似文献
8.
滑坡灾害防治工程中应注意的几个问题 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
滑坡灾害防治工程成败的关键问题 ,取决于滑坡勘查、设计以及施工质量。为提高滑坡防治工程水平 ,更好地为公路、铁路、市政建设服务 ,本文从滑坡勘查、治理设计、治理施工出发 ,探讨滑坡防治工程中应注意的几个问题。 相似文献
9.
10.
以福宁高速公路福鼎分水关至福安坞段A3标段八尺门互通区滑坡整治工程为实例，对现场采用的压力分散型锚索进行抗拔试验研究，详细介绍了该新型锚索的抗拔试验过程及其锚索受力测试方法，并就锚索试验中的若干问题进行了分析和探讨，试验研究成果为锚索设计和施工提供了直接依据，具有实际的应用和参考价值。 相似文献
11.
地震滑坡危险性概念和基于力学模型的评估方法探讨 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
在我国大陆地区运用基于力学模型的Newmark位移分析方法开展地震滑坡危险性定量评估,尚处在起步阶段.为了进一步明确地震滑坡危险性概念和改进推广基于力学模型的评估方法,首先阐明了狭义的地震滑坡危险性预测评估与震后反演评估的关系; 同时为了应对地震应急、震后重建及潜在地震条件下的不同评估需求,初步提出了广义的地震滑坡危险性评估框架.随后申述了基于Newmark位移分析的地震滑坡危险性评估方法的理论基础、方法分类及最新进展,并以汶川地震滑坡危险性快速评估为例,剖析了目前影响评估有效性的不确定性及空间数据质量等问题,指出了基于力学模型的地震滑坡危险性评估方法的改进方向.建议开展潜在地震及其诱发滑坡危险性的耦合评估,建立适用于我国大陆地区地震滑坡位移分析的经验模型,以便为国家层面的地震滑坡危险性区划服务. 相似文献
12.
Assessing the hazard of potential landslides is crucial for developing mitigation strategies for landslide disasters. However, accurate assessment of landslide hazard is limited by the lack of landslide inventory maps and difficulty in determining landslide run-out distance. To address these issues, this study developed a novel method combining the InSAR technique with a depth-integrated model. Within this new framework, potential landslides are identified through InSAR and their potential impact areas are subsequently estimated using the depth-integrated model. To evaluate its capability, the proposed method was applied to a landslide event that occurred on November 3, 2018 in Baige village, Tibet, China. The simulated results show that the area with a probability of more than 50% to be affected by landslides matched the real trimlines of the landslide and that the accuracy of the proposed method reached 85.65%. Furthermore, the main deposit characteristics, such as the location of maximum deposit thickness and the main deposit area, could be captured by the proposed method. Potential landslides in the Baige region were also identified and evaluated. The results indicate that in the event of landslides, the collapsed mass has a high probability to block the Jinsha River. It is therefore necessary to implement field monitoring and prepare hazard mitigation strategies in advance. This study provides new insights for regional-scale landslide hazard management and further contributes to the implementation of landslide risk assessment and reduction activities.
相似文献13.
近年来，国内外滑坡研究日益重视滑坡风险评估和管理技术方法的研究，但滑坡风险评估依然是存在很多问题和难点,尤其是在中等—大比例尺区域滑坡风险定量评估方面，主要表现在滑坡编录数据库建设、滑坡影响因素的识别和建模、滑坡时间、空间预测的不确定性，滑坡诱发因素动态变化的定量刻画，承灾体识别和易损性定量评价等方面。在阐述滑坡风险评估流程的基础上，围绕滑坡风险评估与制图中滑坡编录和基础数据获取与更新，危险性分析中的滑坡空间、时间概率和滑坡特征预测、损失评估中的易损性分析与定量和承灾体定量化制图等技术方法中的难点和存在的问题，概述针对这些问题所取得的研究进展，并指出了滑坡风险研究的技术发展趋势。 相似文献
14.
Uncertainties in parameters of landslide susceptibility models often hinder them from providing accurate spatial and temporal predictions of landslide occurrences. Substantial contribution to the uncertainties in landslide assessment originates from spatially variable geotechnical and hydrological parameters. These input parameters may often vary significantly through space, even within the same geological deposit, and there is a need to quantify the effects of the uncertainties in these parameters. This study addresses this issue with a new three-dimensional probabilistic landslide susceptibility model. The spatial variability of the model parameters is modeled with the random field approach and coupled with the Monte Carlo method to propagate uncertainties from the model parameters to landslide predictions (i.e., factor of safety). The resulting uncertainties in landslide predictions allow the effects of spatial variability in the input parameters to be quantified. The performance of the proposed model in capturing the effect of spatial variability and predicting landslide occurrence has been compared with a conventional physical-based landslide susceptibility model that does not account for three-dimensional effects on slope stability. The results indicate that the proposed model has better performance in landslide prediction with higher accuracy and precision than the conventional model. The novelty of this study is illustrating the effects of the soil heterogeneity on the susceptibility of shallow landslides, which was made possible by the development of a three-dimensional slope stability model that was coupled with random field model and the Monte Carlo method.
相似文献15.
Automated derivation and spatio-temporal analysis of landslide properties in southern Kyrgyzstan 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Darya Golovko Sigrid Roessner Robert Behling Birgit Kleinschmit 《Natural Hazards》2017,85(3):1461-1488
The study area located in southern Kyrgyzstan is affected by high and ongoing landslide activity. To characterize this activity, a multi-temporal landslide inventory containing over 2800 landslide polygons was generated from multiple data sources. The latter include the results of automated landslide detection from multi-temporal satellite imagery. The polygonal representation of the landslides allows for characterization of the landslide geometry and determination of further landslide attributes in a way that accounts for the diversity of conditions within the landslide, e.g., at the landslide main scarp opposed to its toe. To perform such analyses, a methodology for efficient geographic information system (GIS)-based attribute derivation was developed, which includes both standard and customized GIS tools. We derived a number of landslide attributes, including area, length, compactness, slope, aspect, distance to stream and geology. The distributions of these attributes were analyzed to obtain a better understanding of landslide properties in the study area as a preliminary step for probabilistic landslide hazard assessment. The obtained spatial and temporal attribute variations were linked to differences in the environmental characteristics within the study area, in which the geological setting proved to be the most important differentiating factor. Moreover, a significant influence of the different data sources on the distribution of the landslide attribute values was found, indicating the importance of a critical evaluation of the landslide data to be used in landslide hazard assessments. 相似文献
16.
A new natural gas pipeline with a 0.90-m diameter is under construction to provide a gas connection between Turkey and Greece
as well as to create a gas ring for southern Europe. The new pipeline route lies next to an existing small diameter gas pipeline
broken by a landslide that occurred in February 2006 near Karacabey (Bursa). Although the existing pipeline has been temporarily
repaired, either the pipeline route should be relocated or the landslide should be stabilized. The geological survey conducted
in the study area reveals that relocation is not feasible due to the existence of other landslides in close vicinity to the
site. In order to investigate the causes of the landslide and to suggest possible remedial measures, geotechnical investigations
including surface geological mapping, trial pitting, drilling with field tests, inclinometer measurements, laboratory testing,
and limit equilibrium analyses were conducted. The investigation revealed that the unconsolidated clayey soil slid on claystone
along a non-circular failure surface. Based on the gathered data, possible remedial measures including partial removal of
landslide material and construction of toe buttresses, slope flattening, lowering the pipeline, and surface drainage systems
were evaluated. These are suggested to prevent the reactivation of the landslide, and thus to establish a safe route for both
the existing and the new pipelines. 相似文献
17.
Assessment of shallow landslides from Hurricane Mitch in central America using a physically based model 总被引：5，自引：2，他引：3
Shallow landslides induced by heavy rainfall events represent one of the most disastrous hazards in mountainous regions because
of their high frequency and rapid mobility. Recent advancements in the availability and accessibility of remote sensing data,
including topography, land cover and precipitation products, allow landslide hazard assessment to be considered at larger
spatial scales. A theoretical framework for a landslide forecasting system was prototyped in this study using several remotely
sensed and surface parameters. The applied physical model SLope-Infiltration-Distributed Equilibrium (SLIDE) takes into account
some simplified hypotheses on water infiltration and defines a direct relation between factor of safety and the rainfall depth
on an infinite slope. This prototype model is applied to a case study in Honduras during Hurricane Mitch in 1998. Two study
areas were selected where a high density of shallow landslides occurred, covering approximately 1,200 km2. The results were quantitatively evaluated using landslide inventory data compiled by the United States Geological Survey
(USGS) following Hurricane Mitch’s landfall. The agreement between the SLIDE modeling results and landslide observations demonstrates
good predictive skill and suggests that this framework could serve as a potential tool for the future early landslide warning
systems. Results show that within the two study areas, the values of rates of successful estimation of slope failure locations
reached as high as 78 and 75%, while the error indices were 35 and 49%. Despite positive model performance, the SLIDE model
is limited by several assumptions including using general parameter calibration rather than in situ tests and neglecting geologic
information. Advantages and limitations of this physically based model are discussed with respect to future applications of
landslide assessment and prediction over large scales. 相似文献
18.
Topo-stress based probabilistic model for shallow landslide susceptibility zonation in the Nepal Himalaya 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Ranjan Kumar Dahal Netra Prakash Bhandary Shuichi Hasegawa Ryuichi Yatabe 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2014,71(9):3879-3892
While dealing with slope stability issues, determining the state of stress and the relation between driving force and resisting force are the fundamental deterministic steps. Gravitational stresses affect geologic processes and engineering operations in slopes. Considering this fact, a concept of topo-stress evaluation is developed in this research and used to produce a shallow landslide susceptibility map in a model area. The topo-stress introduced in this research refers to the shear stress induced by the gravitational forces on the planes parallel to the ground surface. Weight of the material on a slope and friction angle of the jointed rock mass are the two fundamental parameters that are considered to govern topo-stress in this study. Considering topo-stress as a main factor for initiating shallow landslides, a GIS-based probabilistic model is developed for shallow landslide susceptibility zonation. An ideal terrain in central Nepal is selected as the study area for this purpose. Two event-based shallow landslide inventories are used to predict accuracy of the model, which is found to be more than 78 % for the first event-landslides and more than 76 % for the second event-landslides. It is evident from these prediction rates that the probabilistic topo-stress model proposed in this work is quite acceptable when regional scale shallow landslide susceptibility mapping is practiced, such as in the Himalayan rocky slopes. 相似文献
19.
作为防灾减灾的重要措施之一,滑坡风险评价已经成为近年来国际上滑坡研究的热点,并形成了较为完备的滑坡风险管理体系。国内的滑坡风险研究则起步较晚,滑坡风险评价的关键支撑技术体系尚未建立。本文对滑坡风险评价中的关键理论和方法进行梳理,阐述了国际滑坡风险评价的理论框架和技术流程,介绍了国内外滑坡易发性、危险性和风险评价的最新进展,评述了滑坡易发性评价、扩展范围预测、频率分析以及承灾体易损性评价的主要方法,阐明了现阶段滑坡风险评价的重点领域和前沿科学问题,并对滑坡灾害的风险评价提出了三点展望。 相似文献
20.
我国是世界上受滑坡影响最大的国家之一,也投入了大量的人力物力开展区域性滑坡隐患探测工作.近年的政府工作表明,80%的滑坡发生在已圈定的隐患点范围外,80%的滑坡发生在防灾减灾工作条件相对薄弱的边远农村地区.为了解决这个困境,亟需:（1）厘清不同类型滑坡宜选用的广域探测技术,解决滑坡隐患广域探测的漏检问题;（2）突破社区协同滑坡防灾的难题,助力滑坡隐患探测和风险评估.本文将滑坡隐患分为4类:斜坡变形区、复活历史变形破坏区、稳定历史变形破坏区和潜在斜坡变形区,以便充分发挥多源遥感数据和技术的优势;进而提出一种“滑坡隐患广域探测-单体滑坡隐患风险评估-社区协同防灾”的多源遥感滑坡防灾技术框架.以青藏高原交通工程关键区段约10 000 km2区域作为研究区,协同社区（如设计和建设单位）共识别出滑坡隐患263处,其中斜坡变形区249处,复活历史变形破坏区5处,稳定历史变形破坏区9处,并针对3个典型滑坡隐患进行风险定量评估和社区协同防灾.该多源遥感技术框架将有助于提高社区滑坡防灾的能力,也将直接服务于青藏高原交通工程的建设与运维. 相似文献