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1.
为了分析和评价气候变化对水文水资源的影响,根据中国东部地区1956～2000年实测年降水量系列数据,采用多年均值、系列趋势变化指标和反映系列可持续特性的Hurst系数等3项指标,对CGCMA3、MPI-ECHAM5和平均GCM等3种气候模式模拟的同期年降水系列数据进行了检验。检验结果表明,3种气候模式模拟结果与实测值之间,以及不同模式模拟结果之间,不仅定量方面差异很大,而且在定性方面甚至出现相悖的结果,不确定性十分显著。同样,根据3种气候模式预测的未来2001～2050年年降水量和季平均气温推得的未来年径流量系列数据,其多年均值、系列趋势变化指标和干旱年年径流量多项指标也存在明显的不确定性。据此对气候模式及其应用提出了相应的建议。 相似文献
2.
《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2008,340(9-10):564-574
An overview of the expected change of climate extremes during this century due to greenhouse gases and aerosol anthropogenic emissions is presented. The most commonly used methodologies rely on the dynamical or statistical downscaling of climate projections, performed with coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models. Either of dynamical or of statistical type, downscaling methods present strengths and weaknesses, but neither their validation on present climate conditions, nor their potential ability to project the impact of climate change on extreme event statistics allows one to give a specific advantage to one of the two types. The results synthesized in the last IPCC report and more recent studies underline a convergence for a very likely increase in heat wave episodes over land surfaces, linked to the mean warming and the increase in temperature variability. In addition, the number of days of frost should decrease and the growing season length should increase. The projected increase in heavy precipitation events appears also as very likely over most areas and also seems linked to a change in the shape of the precipitation intensity distribution. The global trends for drought duration are less consistent between models and downscaling methodologies, due to their regional variability. The change of wind-related extremes is also regionally dependent, and associated to a poleward displacement of the midlatitude storm tracks. The specific study of extreme events over France reveals the high sensitivity of some statistics of climate extremes at the decadal time scale as a consequence of regional climate internal variability. 相似文献
3.
In different areas of the world, shallow landslides represent a remarkable hazard inducing fatalities and economic damages. Then, the evaluation about potential variation in frequency of such hazard under the effect of climate changes should be a priority for defining reliable adaptation measurements. Unfortunately, current performances of climate models on sub-daily scales, relevant for heavy rainfall events triggering shallow landslides, are not reliable enough to be used directly for performing slope stability analysis. In an attempt to overcome the constrains by gap in time resolution between climate and hazard models, the paper presents an integrated suitable approach for estimating future variations in shallow landslide hazard and managing the uncertainties associated with climate and sub-daily downscaling models. The approach is tested on a small basin on Amalfi coast (southern Italy). Basing on available basin scale critical rainfall thresholds, the paper outlines how the projected changes in precipitation patterns could affect local slope stability magnitude scenarios with different relevances as effect of investigated time horizon and concentration scenario. The paper concludes with qualitative evaluations on the future effectiveness of the local operative warning system in a climate change framework. 相似文献
4.
Rethinking geopolitics in an era of climate change 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
This article examines the disconnect between predictions about climate change and dominant geopolitical framings of the future. To begin, we introduce four popular geopolitical models of the world. We then show how climate change is a critical variable when considering the future of international politics. Focusing on the specific issues of water availability, agricultural productivity, coastal impacts, and shipping routes, we discuss the implications of predicted changes in the wake of climate change for the assumptions on which these scenarios are built. We show that work linking climate change and geopolitics has clear implications for the ways in which the future geopolitical (dis)order is conceptualized, and we argue that the failure to incorporate this work into geopolitical scenario-planning represents a significant limitation to their utility. We offer some direction for a re-conceptualization of the future based on a more dynamic and flexible approach to geopolitics that recognizes the disruptions posed by climatic and other environmental changes. 相似文献
5.
We identify and discuss ways to use existing information on the thermal ecology of freshwater fishes to assess the potential impact of climate change on wild populations of these organisms. Two primary questions are identified: (i) how do aquatic habitats change in response to atmospheric climate change? (ii) how do fish respond to habitat change at both the individual and population levels? In lakes, climate warming will lead to higher surface water temperatures, longer ice-free periods, and longer periods of thermal stratification. In rivers, climate warming will lead to higher groundwater temperatures with corresponding increases in both summer and winter temperatures, from headwaters to mouth. We describe several methods for predicting the biological effects of these changes in habitat. We examine the use of bioenergetic models to predict the impact of climate change on the growth of individual fish. We examine the use of thermal habitat models to assess the impact of climate change on population abundance. We examine the use of life cycle models to assess the impact of climate change on the zoogeographic distribution of species. Finally, we identify new research required to further develop these methods. 相似文献
6.
Obligatory interactions between species are fundamental to ecosystem functioning and are expected to be particularly sensitive to climate change. Although the effect of past and current climate changes on individual species has been thoroughly investigated, their effect on obligatory interactions has been overlooked. In this review, we present predictions about the effects of climate change on obligatory interactions and illustrate these predictions with examples from the literature. We focus on abrupt past climate change, especially during the Quaternary, because knowing past responses is useful for understanding and predicting the response of organisms and ecosystems to the current climate change. We also pinpoint the need for better time calibration of demographic events from genetic data, and for more studies focused on particularly suitable biological models. We hope that this review will stimulate interaction between the earth sciences and the life sciences on this timely topic. 相似文献
7.
Rapid climate change at millennial and centennial scales is one of the most important aspects in paleoclimate study. It has
been found that rapid climate change at millennial and centennial scales is a global phenomenon during both the glacial age
and the Holocene with amplitudes typical of geological or astronomical time-scales. Simulations of glacial and Holocene climate
changes have demonstrated the response of the climate system to the changes of earth orbital parameter and the importance
of variations in feedbacks of ocean, vegetation, icecap and greenhouse gases. Modeling experiments suggest that the Atlantic
thermohaline circulation was sensitive to the freshwater input into the North Atlantic and was closely related to the rapid
climate changes during the last glacial age and the Holocene. Adopting the Earth-system models of intermediate complexity
(EMICs), CLIMBER-2, the response of East Asian climate change to Dansgaard/Oeschger and Heinrich events during the typical
last glacial period (60 ka B.P.-20 ka B.P.) and impacts of ice on the Tibetan plateau on Holocene climate change were stimulated,
studied and revealed. Further progress of paleoclimate modeling depends on developing finer-grid models and reconstructing
more reliable boundary conditions. More attention should be paid on the study of mechanisms of abrupt climatic changes as
well as regional climate changes in the background of global climate change.
__________
Translated from Advances in Earth Science, 2007, 22(10): 1054–1065 [译自: 地球科学进展] 相似文献
8.
Climate and hydrological models to assess the impact of climate change on hydrological regime: a review 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Quantitative knowledge about the impacts of climate change on the hydrological regime is essential in order to achieve meaningful insights to address various adverse consequences related to water such as water scarcity, flooding, drought, etc. General circulation models (GCMs) have been developed to simulate the present climate and to predict future climatic change. But, the coarse resolution of their outputs is inefficient to resolve significant regional scale features for assessing the effects of climate change on the hydrological regimes, thus restricting their direct implementation in hydrological models. This article reviews hierarchy and development of climate models from the early times, importance and inter-comparison of downscaling techniques and development of hydrological models. Also recent research developments regarding the evaluation of climate change impact on the hydrological regime have been discussed. The article also provides some suggestions to improve the effectiveness of modelling approaches involved in the assessment of climate change impact on hydrological regime. 相似文献
9.
《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2008,340(9-10):584-590
The successive reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) illustrate an apparent contradiction. On the one hand, the large scale climatic change in response to the increase of greenhouse gases is structured following patterns which have remained surprisingly stable throughout the development of climate models. Already in the 1980s model simulations of climate change were characterized by a larger warming in polar areas and over the continents, and a tendency for precipitations to accentuate existing contrasts, with a drier climate in semiarid regions and more precipitations at mid-latitudes or near the Equator. On the other hand, models have made little progress in predicting more unanimously and more reliably the global amplitude of climate changes and their geographical distributions. This lack of progress is certainly linked with the role of the atmospheric dynamics in shaping up certain aspects of climate response, either small scales which affect atmospheric stratification, or synoptic scales, whose inherent complexity and nonlinear interactions also limit the possibility of more accurate regional predictions. 相似文献
10.
Rocky Dunlap Leo Mark Spencer Rugaber V. Balaji Julien Chastang Luca Cinquini Cecelia DeLuca Don Middleton Sylvia Murphy 《Earth Science Informatics》2008,1(3-4):131-149
The Earth System Curator is a National Science Foundation sponsored project developing a metadata formalism for describing the digital resources used in climate simulations. The primary motivating observation of the project is that a simulation/model’s source code plus the configuration parameters required for a model run are a compact representation of the dataset generated when the model is executed. The end goal of the project is a convergence of models and data where both resources are accessed uniformly from a single registry. In this paper we review the current metadata landscape of the climate modeling community, present our work on developing a metadata formalism for describing climate models, and reflect on technical challenges we have faced that require new research in the area of Earth Science Informatics. 相似文献
11.
气候变化与人类活动对水文过程产生了重大影响,估计和区分二者的影响是水科学研究中的热点问题。针对气候变化和人类活动(土地利用/覆盖变化)两个驱动因素,分别综述了气候变化、人类活动和两者综合对水文影响的研究进展;介绍了未来的气候情景和人类活动情景;阐述了区分气候变化和人类活动对水文要素过去和未来影响的研究方法,并总结了方法中常用的分布式水文模型。提出当前研究中存在气候和人类活动情景重复交叉、缺乏两者对水文极值事件的影响研究等问题。 相似文献
12.
近百年来全球气候呈现以变暖为主要特征的显著变化,并且未来气温将继续上升,降水模式也会发生改变。从气候变化对湿地水文水资源的影响、气候变化影响下湿地水文与生态的相互作用过程以及湿地生态水文模型等3个方面,对国内外相关研究动态和发展趋势进行了总结分析。从中发现,当前全球气候背景下的湿地生态水文学正在从单一湿地生态水文过程为主要对象,发展成为以研究气候-水文-生态三者相互作用机制为主要内容的综合性、交叉性学科。现关于气候变化影响下水文-生态之间的关系多集中于单向作用的研究,特别是水文过程对植被的影响研究较多,缺乏对气候变化影响下湿地水文过程与生态过程相互作用机理的全面认识。气候变化对湿地生态水文的影响机制研究已经成为水文学研究亟待解决的科学问题,而基于物理机制的湿地生态水文模型,逐渐成为预测未来气候变化下湿地生态水文响应的重要工具。 相似文献
13.
The main objective of the Effects of Climate Change On the Inland waterway Networks (ECCONET) EU FP7 project was to assess the effect of climate change on the inland waterway transport network with special emphasis on the Rhine and Upper Danube catchments. The assessment was based on consolidation and analysis of earlier and existing research work as well as application of existing climate change and hydrological modelling tools. A key premise at the planning stage of the project had been that all impact studies conducted within ECCONET should be comparable with each other. This can be guaranteed by the common meteorological and hydrological basis. The climate model simulations, which are the most physics- and process-oriented tools for projecting the future climate evolution, include several uncertainties. In addition, uncertainties exist in the hydrological model simulations. In ECCONET, an effort was made to quantify the uncertainty range by using “representative projections” that represent both the lower and upper signals of hydrological low-flow parameters for 2021–2050 over the Rhine catchment. Their evaluation indicated that the finally chosen two regional climate model simulations could be applied also for the Upper Danube catchments as representative projections. The raw climate model outputs have been corrected to the observation data set through application of the linear scaling and the delta-change method. The first impact studies carried out after validation of the hydrological models resulted in discharge scenarios used as input to the economic models in ECCONET. 相似文献
14.
全球气候变化对洪水、干旱等极端水文事件的影响已成为一个亟待解决的科学问题.针对国内外在气候变化下采用统计降尺度和降雨径流模型对水文极端事件进行预测的研究进展进行了系统分析,在分类阐述的基础上,总结了国内外最新的研究进展及在预估过程中存在的问题和解决方案,试图凝练出一些气候变化背景下水文极端事件预估的新思路.结果表明:为有效降低极端水文事件预估的不确定性,各种集合模拟技术、数据同化方法、强化观测技术及水文模型的尺度转换理论将是有效的解决途径. 相似文献
15.
Ann V. Rowan 《Geology Today》2018,34(4):134-139
Mountain glaciers are found around the world in ranges such as the Himalaya, the Andes and the European Alps. The majority of mountain glaciers world‐wide are shrinking. However, the rugged alpine topography through which these glaciers flow governs their dynamics and impacts on the regional climate systems that modify glacier mass balance. As a result, the response of mountain glaciers to climate change is difficult to predict, and highly spatially variable even across one mountain range, particularly where orography controls precipitation distributions. To understand how mountain glaciers behave and change, geologists combine many different techniques based on direct observations and dating of glacial geology, measurements of present‐day glaciers, and predictive numerical (computer) models. Recent advances in these techniques and their applications to glacial environments have demonstrated that the glacial geological record is a rich archive of information about how climate has changed in the past, and gives greater confidence in predictions of glacier change in the future, which is required if populations living in glacerised catchments are able to adapt to the rapid response of glaciers to a changing climate. 相似文献
16.
《Geoforum》2017
In order to address the impacts of climate change, global multilateral institutions, development organizations, and national and regional science organizations are creating climate services – packages of useful climate information intended to help decision makers. This diffuse collection of actors and institutions suggest that producing climate services will help bridge gaps between climate scientists and decision-makers and will therefore help vulnerable countries and people manage the risks and optimize the impacts of climate change. This article examines this global science-policy ecosystem using the case of climate services produced by Australian science agencies for consumption in adaptation programming in the Pacific Island countries of Kiribati and Solomon Islands. Linking research on geographies of marketization and the neoliberalization of science, I demonstrate that within the climate service movement a focus on usefulness is paired with an emphasis on commercialization. As a result, this case shows the inherent tensions in the climate service model: first, a focus on competition and circulating service products at the expense of collaborative relationships; second, difficulties in negotiating uncertainty; and third contradictions between ‘objective’ and ‘entrepreneurial’ science. In each of these instances, the commercialized mechanisms through which climate services are governed, and the political economic circumstances within which they are produced, magnify rather than ameliorate gaps between science and policy. 相似文献
17.
ERIK KJELLSTRÖM JENNY BRANDEFELT JENS‐OVE NÄSLUND BEN SMITH GUSTAV STRANDBERG ANTJE H. L. VOELKER BARBARA WOHLFARTH 《Boreas: An International Journal of Quaternary Research》2010,39(2):436-456
Kjellström, E., Brandefelt, J., Näslund, J.‐O., Smith, B., Strandberg, G., Voelker, A. H. L. & Wohlfarth, B. 2010: Simulated climate conditions in Europe during the Marine Isotope Stage 3 stadial. Boreas, 10.1111/j.1502‐3885.2010.00143.x. ISSN 0300‐9483. State‐of‐the‐art climate models were used to simulate climate conditions in Europe during Greenland Stadial (GS) 12 at 44 ka BP. The models employed for these simulations were: (i) a fully coupled atmosphere–ocean global climate model (AOGCM), and (ii) a regional atmospheric climate model (RCM) to dynamically downscale results from the global model for a more detailed investigation of European climate conditions. The vegetation was simulated off‐line by a dynamic vegetation model forced by the climate from the RCM. The resulting vegetation was then compared with the a priori vegetation used in the first simulation. In a subsequent step, the RCM was rerun to yield a new climate more consistent with the simulated vegetation. Forcing conditions included orbital forcing, land–sea distribution, ice‐sheet configuration, and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations representative for 44 ka BP. The results show a cold climate on the global scale, with global annual mean surface temperatures 5 °C colder than the modern climate. This is still significantly warmer than temperatures derived from the same model system for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Regional, northern European climate is much colder than today, but still significantly warmer than during the LGM. Comparisons between the simulated climate and proxy‐based sea‐surface temperature reconstructions show that the results are in broad agreement, albeit with a possible cold bias in parts of the North Atlantic in summer. Given a prescribed restricted Marine Isotope Stage 3 ice‐sheet configuration, with large ice‐free regions in Sweden and Finland, the AOGCM and RCM model simulations produce a cold and dry climate in line with the restricted ice‐sheet configuration during GS 12. The simulated temperature climate, with prescribed ice‐free conditions in south‐central Fennoscandia, is favourable for the development of permafrost, but does not allow local ice‐sheet formation as all snow melts during summer. 相似文献
18.
A major effect of man-induced climate change could be a generally higher frequency and magnitude of extreme climatological
events in Europe. Consequently, the frequency of rainfall-triggered landslides could increase. However, assessment of the
impact of climate change on landsliding is difficult, because on a regional scale, climate change will vary strongly, and
even the sign of change can be opposite. Furthermore, different types of landslides are triggered by different mechanisms.
A potential method for predicting climate change impact on landsliding is to link slope models to climate scenarios obtained
through downscaling General Circulation Models (GCM). Methodologies, possibilities and problems are discussed, as well as
some tentative results for a test site in South-East France.
Received: 25 October 1997 · Accepted: 25 June 1997 相似文献
19.
Birgit H��nicke 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2010,99(8):1721-1730
A statistical downscaling approach is applied to the output of five different global climate model simulations driven by twenty-first
century future scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations. The contribution of sea-level pressure (SLP) and precipitation
changes to regional future winter sea-level changes is estimated for four Baltic sea-level stations by establishing statistical
relationships between sea level as predictand and large-scale climate fields as predictors. Using SLP as predictor for the
central and eastern Baltic Sea level stations, three climate models lead to statistically significant twenty-first century
future trends in the range of the order of 1–2 mm/year. Using precipitation as predictor for the stations in the southern
Baltic coast all five models lead to statistically significant trends with a range of the order of 0.4 mm/year. These numbers
are smaller, but of the order of magnitude as the predicted global sea-level rise. 相似文献
20.
A.V. Karmalkar M.A. Taylor J. Campbell T. Stephenson M. New A. Centella A. Benzanilla J. Charlery 《Atmósfera》2013,26(2):283-309
Observed and projected changes in climate have serious socio-economic implications for the Caribbean islands. This article attempts to present basic climate change information—based on previous studies, available observations and climate model simulations—at spatial scales relevant for islands in the Caribbean. We use the General Circulation Model (GCM) data included in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) and the UK Hadley Centre regional climate model (RCM) data to provide both present-day and scenario-based future information on precipitation and temperature for individual island states. Gridded station observations and satellite data are used to study 20th century climate and to assess the performance of climate models. With main focus on precipitation, we also discuss factors such as sea surface temperature, sea level pressure and winds that affect seasonal variations in precipitation. The CMIP3 ensemble mean and the RCM successfully capture the large-scale atmospheric circulation features in the region, but show difficulty in capturing the characteristic bimodal seasonal cycle of precipitation. Future drying during the wet season in this region under climate change scenarios has been noted in previous studies, but the magnitude of change is highly uncertain in both GCM and RCM simulations. The projected decrease is more prominent in the early wet season erasing the mid-summer drought feature in the western Caribbean. The RCM simulations show improvements over the GCM mainly due to better representation of landmass, but its performance is critically dependent on the driving GCM. This study highlights the need for high-resolution observations and ensemble of climate model simulations to fully understand climate change and its impacts on small islands in the Caribbean. 相似文献