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1.
The Bavarian Alps region is strongly affected by various natural hazards, mainly hydrological events (floods, debris flows),
geomorphic/geological events (landslides, rock falls), and avalanches. Extraordinary floods, like in 2002 or in the summer
of 2005 in south Bavaria, have again posed the question of the possible extent and frequency of recurrence of catastrophic
events. To put risk assessment on a broader basis historical data about all kinds of past natural hazards were detected in
the archives of local authorities and administrative offices for water management. More than 10,000 sources (written accounts,
maps, and photographs) were collated in a database. The majority of this information reaches back to the middle of the 19th
century. In addition, many documents referring to events dating back even as far as the middle age were found. The Historische
Analyse von NaturGefahren (HANG, historical analysis of natural hazards) project at the University of Eichstaett mainly focuses
on a small-scale examination of the data. Initial results of the data analysis show that most catastrophic events in the Bavarian
Alps only affect parts of the area, but not the whole region. Therefore it is necessary to assess the risk potential on a
local scale like valleys, the catchment areas of mountain streams, or even single streams. Firstly the presented data is aimed
to help engineers in future planning of hazard-protection measures. Secondly the information can form a vital component to
enhance our knowledge of hydrological and geomorphic/geological dynamics in the Alps. 相似文献
2.
Floods and associated landslides account for the largest number of natural disasters and affect more people than any other
type of natural disaster. With the availability of satellite rainfall analyses at fine time and space resolution, it has also
become possible to mitigate such hazards on a near-global basis. In this article, a framework to detect floods and landslides
related to heavy rain events in near-real-time is proposed. Key components of the framework are: a fine resolution precipitation
acquisition system; a comprehensive land surface database; a hydrological modeling component; and landslide and debris flow
model components. A key precipitation input dataset for the integrated applications is the NASA TRMM-based multi-satellite
precipitation estimates. This dataset provides near real-time precipitation at a spatial-temporal resolution of 3 h and 0.25° × 0.25°.
In combination with global land surface datasets it is now possible to expand regional hazard modeling components into a global
identification/monitoring system for flood/landslide disaster preparedness and mitigation. 相似文献
3.
《地学前缘(英文版)》2022,13(5):101425
Multi-hazard susceptibility prediction is an important component of disasters risk management plan. An effective multi-hazard risk mitigation strategy includes assessing individual hazards as well as their interactions. However, with the rapid development of artificial intelligence technology, multi-hazard susceptibility prediction techniques based on machine learning has encountered a huge bottleneck. In order to effectively solve this problem, this study proposes a multi-hazard susceptibility mapping framework using the classical deep learning algorithm of Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN). First, we use historical flash flood, debris flow and landslide locations based on Google Earth images, extensive field surveys, topography, hydrology, and environmental data sets to train and validate the proposed CNN method. Next, the proposed CNN method is assessed in comparison to conventional logistic regression and k-nearest neighbor methods using several objective criteria, i.e., coefficient of determination, overall accuracy, mean absolute error and the root mean square error. Experimental results show that the CNN method outperforms the conventional machine learning algorithms in predicting probability of flash floods, debris flows and landslides. Finally, the susceptibility maps of the three hazards based on CNN are combined to create a multi-hazard susceptibility map. It can be observed from the map that 62.43% of the study area are prone to hazards, while 37.57% of the study area are harmless. In hazard-prone areas, 16.14%, 4.94% and 30.66% of the study area are susceptible to flash floods, debris flows and landslides, respectively. In terms of concurrent hazards, 0.28%, 7.11% and 3.13% of the study area are susceptible to the joint occurrence of flash floods and debris flow, debris flow and landslides, and flash floods and landslides, respectively, whereas, 0.18% of the study area is subject to all the three hazards. The results of this study can benefit engineers, disaster managers and local government officials involved in sustainable land management and disaster risk mitigation. 相似文献
4.
J. L. Zêzere S. Pereira A. O. Tavares C. Bateira R. M. Trigo I. Quaresma P. P. Santos M. Santos J. Verde 《Natural Hazards》2014,72(2):503-532
In the last century, Portugal was affected by several natural disasters of hydro-geomorphologic origin that often caused high levels of destruction. However, data on past events related to floods and landslides were scattered. The Disaster project aims to bridge the gap on the availability of a consistent and validated hydro-geomorphologic database for Portugal, by creating, disseminating and exploiting a GIS database on disastrous floods and landslides for the period 1865–2010, which is available in http://riskam.ul.pt/disaster/en. Data collection is steered by the concept of disaster used within the Disaster project. Therefore, any hydro-geomorphologic case is stored in the database if the occurrence led to casualties or injuries, and missing, evacuated or homeless people, independently of the number of people affected. The sources of information are 16 national, regional and local newspapers that implied the analysis of 145,344 individual newspapers. The hydro-geomorphologic occurrences were stored in a database containing two major parts: the characteristics of the hydro-geomorphologic case and the corresponding damages. In this work, the main results of the Disaster database are presented. A total of 1,621 disastrous floods and 281 disastrous landslides were recorded and registered in the database. These occurrences were responsible for 1,251 dead people. The obtained results do not support the existence of any exponential increase in events in time, thus contrasting with the picture provided to Portugal by the Emergency Events Database. Floods were more frequent during the period 1936–1967 and occurred mostly from November to February. Landslides were more frequent in the period 1947–1969 and occurred mostly from December to March. 相似文献
5.
Regional hydrological thresholds for landslides and floods in the Tiber River Basin (central Italy) 总被引：11，自引：0，他引：11
The definition of landslide warning thresholds, based on the analysis of hydrological data, is proposed. In the Tiber River
Basin of central Italy historical information on landslides and floods, for the period 1918–1990, was available from a nationwide
bibliographical and archive inventory on geohydrological catastrophes. Hydrological data were obtained from mean daily discharge
records at various gauging stations within the basin. Several hundred hydrological events, broadly defined as a series of
consecutive days having mean daily discharge exceeding a predefined value, were identified. Hydrological parameters obtained
from the discharge records were used to rank the events according to their probability to trigger mass movements or inundations
and to define regional thresholds for the occurrence of landslides and floods. The proposed approach, not lacking limitations,
has conceptual and operational advantages, among which is the possibility of using historical information on geohydrological
catastrophes.
Received: 20 November 1996 · Accepted: 25 June 1997 相似文献
6.
根据暴雨洪涝灾害致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性、承载体易损性和防灾减灾能力4个一级因子,以山东地区为研究对象,综合考虑降雨、地形地势、河网密度、植被、人口和经济实力、道路交通信息等因子进行风险区划与分析。利用地理信息系统软件（ArcGIS）将上述因子进行归一化来获得标准化的多源栅格数据,结合层次分析法和自然断点法确定相关指标的权重,建立了暴雨洪涝灾害的风险评估模型,最后得到了山东地区暴雨洪涝灾害综合风险区划等级评估图。对研究区进行定性和定量分析后得出结论,山东地区暴雨洪涝灾害发生的高风险区在鲁中西部、鲁南及山东半岛东部沿海部分地区,此结论与历史数据基本吻合。研究结果为预防山东暴雨洪涝灾害提供了参考信息。 相似文献
7.
Bingshun He Xianlong Huang Meihong Ma Qingrui Chang Yong Tu Qing Li Ke Zhang Yang Hong 《Natural Hazards》2018,90(1):407-420
Flash floods are one of the most disastrous natural hazards and cause serious loss of life and economic damage every year. Flooding frequently affects many regions in China, including periodically catastrophic events. An extensive compilation of the available data has been conducted across various hydroclimatological regions to analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics of flash floods in China. This inventory includes over 782 documented events and is the first step toward establishing an atlas of extreme flash flood occurrences in China. This paper first presents the data compilation strategy, details of the database contents, and the typical examples of first-hand analysis results. The subsequent analysis indicates that the most extreme flash floods originate mainly from small catchments over complex terrains and results in dominantly small- and medium-sized flooding events in terms of scales; however, these events, abrupt and seasonally recurrent in nature, account for a large proportion of the overall flooding-related disasters, especially disproportionately affecting elderly and youth populations. Finally, this study also recommends several immediate measures could be implemented to mitigate high impacts of deadly flash floods, although it still requires long-term significant efforts to protect human life and property in a country like China. 相似文献
8.
Landslides constitute one of the most important natural hazards in Italy as they are widespread and result in considerable damage and fatalities every year. The Italian Landslide Inventory (IFFI) Project was launched in 1999 with the aim of identifying and mapping landslides over the entire Italian territory. The inventory currently holds over 480,000 landslides and has been available by means of Web services since 2005. The aim of this study is to define quality indices for evaluation of the homogeneity and completeness of the IFFI database. In order to estimate the completeness of the landslide attribute information, a heuristic approach has been used to assign weighting values to significant parameters selected from the landslide data sheet. The completeness and homogeneity of the landslide mapping has been evaluated by means of three different methods: an area-frequency distribution analysis; the proximity of the landslides surveyed to urban areas; variation of the landslide index within the same lithology. The quality indices have allowed identification of areas with a high level of completeness and critical areas in which the data collected have been underestimated or are not very accurate. The quality assessment of collected and stored data is essential in order to use the IFFI database for definition and implementation of landslide susceptibility models and for land use planning and management. 相似文献
9.
A digital landslide database has been created for Sichuan province, where a magnitude 8.0 earthquake at 2:28 p.m. on May 12, 2008, to provide the authorities and scientific communities with a tool for landslide risk assessment, emergency management, land-use planning, development of early warning system and enhancement of public awareness of natural hazards. Landslide data have been obtained from a variety of sources including technical reports and landslide inventory maps, and most of which were based on fieldwork and interpretation of aerial photographs. This paper presents the sources of landslide information, database design and the webGIS-based information management system. The database currently contains spatial information for about 9,000 landslides that were mostly triggered by the earthquake. Slide is the most common type of landslide in the database, but other types including rockfall and debris flow have also been identified. The website is an online GIS, providing access to comprehensive landslide information via the Internet. The development of the website allowed us to define the state of knowledge on landslide processes in Sichuan and to provide a preliminary identification of areas affected by landslides. 相似文献
10.
ＣＯＮＣＥＰＴＩＯＮＳＯＦＨＥＡＶＹＦＬＯＯＤＳＣＡＵＳＩＮＧＬＡＮＤ┐ＳＬＩＤＥ／ＳＬＩＤＥＴｈｅｒｅａｒｅｍａｎｙｄｉｓａｓｔｅｒｓ／ｈａｚａｒｄｓｏｃｃｕｒｉｎｇｏｎｔｈｅｅａｒｔｈ’ｓｓｕｒｆａｃｅ．Ｔｈｅｓｅｅｖｅｎｔｓｐｒｅｓｅｎｔｅｄａ... 相似文献
11.
H. Daniel Stillwell 《Natural Hazards》1992,6(2):131-159
Natural hazards and disasters occur widely throughout the world. Disasters can be costly both in terms of human lives and property and ecosystem disruption. Higher death tolls in developing nations may be the result of poverty, rapid population growth, urbanization, and inadequate communication facilities. The purpose of this study is to show patterns of major catastrophic events in Latin America so that their impacts can be evaluated and compared.Latin America was selected because of the variety of recent events commanding wide attention: earthquakes in Mexico, volcanic eruptions in Colombia, hurricanes and floods in Haiti, and drought and mudflows in Brazil. Spatial and temporal aspects of natural disasters are presented in nine tables and 21 maps. The tables give selected disaster data by country for volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, landslides, and atmospheric disturbances from the 16th century to 1989. Most data is derived from disasters occurring during the 20th century and include number of events, people killed, people affected, and U.S.$ damage. Maps show environmental settings for disasters and allow detailed comparison among countries. Floods account for the greatest number of major events in the most countries, earthquakes cause the most deaths and damage, while droughts affect the most people. Peru surpasses all others in susceptibility to major disasters. Assessment of vulnerability to hazards, improved economic opportunities, and an increased social and political concern for poor people should help reduce future losses from natural disasters in Latin America. 相似文献
12.
A geohazard reconnaissance study based on geoscientific information for development needs of the western region of Istanbul (Turkey) 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Tamer Y. Duman Tolga Can Reşat Ulusay Mustafa Keçer Omer Emre Serafettin Ateş Ibrahim Gedik 《Environmental Geology》2005,48(7):871-888
The role of geoenvironmental information is becoming increasingly important as legislative changes have forced developers
and planning authorities to consider more implications and impact on the environment of large-scale development initiatives.
Therefore, integration of surface and subsurface geoscientific information for development needs has prime importance and
provides a means of identifying potential problems and opportunities at an early stage in any planned development. However,
from the experience of recent natural disasters, it is evident that this was not case the taken into consideration in many
countries. In addition to thousands of casualties, many urbanized areas, industrial districts and large-scale engineering
structures suffered severe damages from the natural hazards due to many reasons including the lack of preliminary engineering
geological maps and zoning maps of the settlement areas. Turkey is one of the countries which is exposed to natural hazards
such as earthquakes, landslides and floods. In particular, the devastating 1999 Kocaeli earthquake, which affected the Marmara
Region of Turkey, focused the attention on densely urbanized and industrialized metropolitan areas such as Istanbul. The rapid
growth of Istanbul, particularly towards west with minimal geoscientific information resulted in an overwhelming pressure
on the natural environment. In addition, a large earthquake, which is expected to occur in the Marmara Sea within the next
30 years, also pose a threat to the city and its surroundings. In this study, on the basis of the geological, geomorphological
and geophysical reconnaissance study, an integrated geoscientific data were collected from the western region of Istanbul
and evaluated for geohazards. The paper focuses on the geological and geomorphological aspects that control the occurrence
of some geohazards such as earthquake-induced liquefaction, landslides and flooding. In this context, the geological map of
the region was revised and Quaternary deposits were classified into 11 units, in detail. Liquefaction-prone areas were evaluated
by using geomorphological criteria based on field investigation, by the examination of the available records from 88 boreholes
drilled on recent deposits and by the data from resistivity profiles. The landslides within the region were classified according
to their type, relative depth and activity. In addition, fluvial and marine flood-prone areas were also delimited within the
region. Finally, a series of maps such as landslide inventory maps, and maps showing liquefaction- and flood-prone areas were
produced with the aid of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to assist in designing further detailed site investigations
and to reduce costs by ensuring a more focused approach to strategic planning and site selection. 相似文献
13.
An analysis of the occurrences of events related to precipitation, considering extensive and intensive risk, i.e., emergencies and disasters, based on twenty-nine years of data for five cities of Ecuador provided relevant information about the behavior over time of floods, river overflows and landslides. The records of events were examined in the immediate and in the short term, which corresponded to 5 and 30 days, respectively, using the data mining methods k-means and association rules, to identify the patterns that govern their behaviors with respect to the observed amount of precipitation. The results show an increase in the frequency of similar events, with the occurrences being separated by shorter periods in recent decades. The behavior of emergencies and disasters indicates that emergencies are expected for periods of 5 days, with low quantities of precipitation and for periods of 30 days with normal quantities of precipitation. Disasters are expected, for both periods of 5 and 30 days, in the higher quantiles of precipitation. Interrelations between floods, river overflows and landslides were identified in all cities, with at least one relationship between two of the hazards for each city. An apparent flood–river overflow–landslide cycle could explain the mechanics of their occurrence. The information provided by the results indicates the vulnerability of the cities over time, their low capacity to support normal quantities of precipitation and their high exposure to hydro-meteorological hazards. The products obtained could be used together with precipitation prediction to anticipate possible effects and to formulate adequate risk management policies. 相似文献
14.
15.
Industrial accidents triggered by earthquakes,floods and lightning: lessons learned from a database analysis 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Elisabeth Krausmann Elisabetta Renni Michela Campedel Valerio Cozzani 《Natural Hazards》2011,59(1):285-300
Natural hazards and disasters can cause major accidents in chemical and process installations. These so-called Natech accidents
can result in hazardous-materials releases due to damage to process and storage units, or pipes. In order to understand the
dynamics of Natech events, accidents triggered by earthquakes, floods and lightning recorded in industrial accident databases
were analysed. This allowed the identification of the most vulnerable equipment types, their modes of failure due to natural-event
impact and the final accident scenarios. Moreover, lessons learned for future accident prevention and mitigation were derived.
The analysis showed that pipes and storage tanks are the most vulnerable equipment for earthquakes, floods and lightning,
calling for more research of equipment behaviour under natural-event loading. The damage modes and states are strongly dependent
on the characteristics of the impacting natural event. Toxic dispersion, fires and explosions were observed as a consequence
of all three types of analysed natural events. In the case of floods, two additional scenarios were identified. These are
water contamination and the formation of toxic and/or flammable vapours upon reaction of the released chemicals with the floodwaters.
The overall number of recorded Natech accidents was found to range from 2 to 5% of all reported accidents in the analysed
databases. 相似文献
16.
Landslide susceptibility mapping of the Sera River Basin using logistic regression model 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
Nussaïbah B. Raja Ihsan Çiçek Necla Türkoğlu Olgu Aydin Akiyuki Kawasaki 《Natural Hazards》2017,85(3):1323-1346
Of the natural hazards in Turkey, landslides are the second most devastating in terms of socio-economic losses, with the majority of landslides occurring in the Eastern Black Sea Region. The aim of this study is to use a statistical approach to carry out a landslide susceptibility assessment in one area at great risk from landslides: the Sera River Basin located in the Eastern Black Sea Region. This paper applies a multivariate statistical approach in the form of a logistics regression model to explore the probability distribution of future landslides in the region. The model attempts to find the best fitting function to describe the relationship between the dependent variable, here the presence or absence of landslides in a region and a set of independent parameters contributing to the occurrence of landslides. The dependent variable (0 for the absence of landslides and 1 for the presence of landslides) was generated using landslide data retrieved from an existing database and expert opinion. The database has information on a few landslides in the region, but is not extensive or complete, and thus unlike those normally used for research. Slope, angle, relief, the natural drainage network (including distance to rivers and the watershed index) and lithology were used as independent parameters in this study. The effect of each parameter was assessed using the corresponding coefficient in the logistic regression function. The results showed that the natural drainage network plays a significant role in determining landslide occurrence and distribution. Landslide susceptibility was evaluated using a predicted map of probability. Zones with high and medium susceptibility to landslides make up 38.8 % of the study area and are located mostly south of the Sera River Basin and along streams. 相似文献
17.
Natural Hazards - One of the most important natural hazards is landslides that after the earthquake and floods cause the highest damage to humans. Nowadays, landslide events are taken into... 相似文献
18.
Forecasting the Conditional Probabilities of Natural Disasters in Canada as a Guide for Disaster Preparedness 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1
Mohammed H. I. Dore 《Natural Hazards》2003,28(2-3):249-269
A variety of natural disasters occur in Canada. Yet apart from simple ``return period' calculations, no apparent research seems to have made systematic use of the OCIPEP database on all natural disasters in Canada over the period of 1900 to 2000. This paper (a) describes the main characteristics of natural disasters in Canada, and (b) presents a methodology that is a first attempt to use the database to forecast conditional probabilities of each type of natural disaster. The forecast probabilities can then be used to work out the expected social costs of each type of natural disaster. The expected costs in turn suggest what kind of policy priorities are indicated for disaster preparedness. The key results of this methodology are that Hydrometeorological Disasters are increasing over time and of these, the ranking in order of priority for preparedness should be droughts, heat waves, floods and ice storms. 相似文献
19.
重庆市自然灾害管理综合信息系统研究 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
从重庆市自然灾害情况及其信息管理现状分析入手,构建了重庆市自然灾害管理信息系统目标、整体设计和界面开发。重庆市自然灾害管理信息系统主要由4个模块组成：自然灾害数据库模块、远程通信管理模块、应用分析模型库模块及决策支持模块,它们通过一定的数据接口连结,在GIS平台上成为一体化系统,对重庆市自然灾害进行有效地管理和监测,从而减少自然灾害带来的经济损失。 相似文献
20.
《地学前缘(英文版)》2020,11(4):1203-1217
Natural hazards are often studied in isolation.However,there is a great need to examine hazards holistically to better manage the complex of threats found in any region.Many regions of the world have complex hazard landscapes wherein risk from individual and/or multiple extreme events is omnipresent.Extensive parts of Iran experience a complex array of natural hazards-floods,earthquakes,landslides,forest fires,subsidence,and drought.The effectiveness of risk mitigation is in part a function of whether the complex of hazards can be collectively considered,visualized,and evaluated.This study develops and tests individual and collective multihazard risk maps for floods,landslides,and forest fires to visualize the spatial distribution of risk in Fars Province,southern Iran.To do this,two well-known machine-learning algorithms-SVM and MARS-are used to predict the distribution of these events.Past floods,landslides,and forest fires were surveyed and mapped.The locations of occurrence of these events(individually and collectively) were randomly separated into training(70%) and testing(30%) data sets.The conditioning factors(for floods,landslides,and forest fires) employed to model the risk distributions are aspect,elevation,drainage density,distance from faults,geology,LULC,profile curvature,annual mean rainfall,plan curvature,distance from man-made residential structures,distance from nearest river,distance from nearest road,slope gradient,soil types,mean annual temperature,and TWI.The outputs of the two models were assessed using receiver-operating-characteristic(ROC) curves,true-skill statistics(TSS),and the correlation and deviance values from each models for each hazard.The areas-under-the-curves(AUC) for the MARS model prediction were 76.0%,91.2%,and 90.1% for floods,landslides,and forest fires,respectively.Similarly,the AUCs for the SVM model were 75.5%,89.0%,and 91.5%.The TSS reveals that the MARS model was better able to predict landslide risk,but was less able to predict flood-risk patterns and forest-fire risk.Finally,the combination of flood,forest fire,and landslide risk maps yielded a multi-hazard susceptibility map for the province.The better predictive model indicated that 52.3% of the province was at-risk for at least one of these hazards.This multi-hazard map may yield valuable insight for land-use planning,sustainable development of infrastructure,and also integrated watershed management in Fars Province. 相似文献