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1.
刘春霞 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2002,8(1):93-103
Climatological laws are studied for the annual frequency of tropical cyclone occurrence and the date of the yearly first landfall,which take place in the Guangdong province or pose serious threats on it from 1951 to 1999,using the data in the Yearly Book on Typhons.A new method that has developed over recent years for the study of temporal sequences,the wavelet analysis,is used,in addition to more common statistical approaches.By analyzing two wavelet functions,HAT and MORLET,we have compared the results of transfor proaches.By analyzing two wavelet functions,MHAT and MORLET,we have compared the results of transformation of the wavelets provided that ther conditions remain unchanged.It is discovered that the variance of MORLET wavelet has better indication of primary periods; period-time sequence charts can reflect major affecting periods for individual sections of time;when compared with the orginal sequence,the chart shows a little shift.On the other hand,such shift is absent in the MHAT wavelet.but its higher frequency part of variance covers up the primary periods to make its variance less pedominant as compared to the MORLET wavelet.Besides,the work compares two different assumptions of an amplifying factor a.It is found that primary periods can be shown more clearly in the variance when a takes the exponential of 2 than it takes values continuously.Studying the annual frequency of tropical cyclones and the date of first appearance for periodic patterns ,we have found that the primary peroids extracted by this approach are similar to those obtained by wavelet transformation. 相似文献
2.
广东热带气旋年际变化的小波分析 总被引：20，自引：4，他引：20
利用《台风年鉴》资料，分析了1951－1999年登陆或严重影响广东的热带气旋的年频数和初旋登陆日期的气候规律。除了利用一般的统计方法以外，还利用近年来分析时间序列比较新的方法，即小波分析。通过对MHAT和MORLET两个小波函数进行分析，分析比较了两个不同小波在其他条件相同情况下的变换结果，分析指出MORLET小波的方差能够比较好的显示出主要的周期，周期－时间序列图可以体现出在各个时段的主要影响周期，MORLET的周期－时间序列图与原序列相比，有较小的飘移现象：MHAT小波虽然没有这种飘移现象，但是其方差的高频部分掩盖了主要周期，使得主要周期与MORLET小波相比方差没有那么明显。同时对放大因子a的两种不同取法做了比较，发现利用a取为2的指数的方法选取a比一般连续的选取a在方差上更能体现主要的周期。年频数的初旋日期的周期分析发现周期分析提取的主要周期与小波变换后得到的主要周期类似。 相似文献
3.
利用热带气旋年鉴资料统计了1949~2000年南海热带气旋影响期间我国长三角地区的最大降水量，计算有南海热带气旋影响时最大降水量大于50 mm的条件概率为60%。并把历年引起长三角地区50 mm以上降水的南海气旋频数序列作小波变换，发现其具有周期性振荡的特点，并且振荡周期在频率的分布上也有一定的规律。把南海热带气旋频数序列与夏季3个月副高面积指数之和的序列做交叉谱分析，发现两者具有准2年和准5年的耦合周期，气旋频数序列在位相上超前约半年。最后用1951~1999年的500 hPa月平均高度资料统计频数异常年的500 hPa高度场的距平和t统计量，发现在西太平洋、大西洋和极地都有显著的异常。 相似文献
4.
利用1951—2006年西北太平洋 (含南海) 热带气旋资料, 研究了不同强度热带气旋的气候变化特征。结果表明:超强台风 (近中心最大风速≥58m/s, 简称超强台风Ⅱ) 频数、强度和初、终旋日期的变化特征都不同于其他级别热带气旋; 西北太平洋热带气旋的总频数有长期减少趋势, 主要由热带低压和超强台风Ⅱ的长期减少趋势引起; 随着热带气旋强度增强, 出现月最大频数的月份逐渐推迟; 超强台风月频数最大值发生在秋季; 超强台风Ⅱ频数的年变化与除了超强台风Ⅰ(近中心最大风速为51~58m/s) 外的其他级别热带气旋反相关; 受超强台风Ⅱ减少影响, 热带气旋年平均最大风速有减小的长期趋势; 热带气旋的初、终旋日期没有显著的长期变化趋势, 但超强台风Ⅱ的初旋日期有推迟趋势, 终旋日期有提前趋势, 发生时间缩短。 相似文献
5.
Decadal change in relationship between western North Pacific tropical cyclone frequency and the tropical Pacific SST 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Sang-Wook Yeh Sok-Kuh Kang Ben P. Kirtman Joo-Hong Kim Min-Ho Kwon Cheol-Ho Kim 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2010,106(3-4):179-189
In this study, we examine the relationship between the number of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the western North Pacific and the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) during the main TC season (July–November) for the period of 1965–2006. Results show that there are periods when TC frequency and the tropical Pacific SST are well correlated and periods when the relationship breaks down. Therefore, decadal variation is readily apparent in the relationship between the TC frequency and the SST variations in the tropical Pacific. We further examine the oceanic and atmospheric states in the two periods (i.e., 1979–1989 vs. 1990–2000) when the marked contrast in the correlation between the TC frequency and the tropical Pacific SST is observed. Before 1990, the analysis indicates that oceanic conditions largely influenced anomalous TC frequency, whereas atmospheric conditions had little impact. After 1990, there the reverse appears to be the case, i.e., atmospheric conditions drive anomalous TC frequency and oceanic conditions are relatively unimportant. A role of atmosphere and ocean in relation to the TC development in the western North Pacific changes, which is consistent with the change of the correlations between the TC frequency and the tropical Pacific SST. 相似文献
6.
NATURE OF PRECIPITATION AND ACTIVITY OF CUMULUS CONVECTION DURING THE 1991 MEIYU SEASON OF CHANGJIANG-HUAIHE RIVER BASIN 
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下载免费PDF全文 Seasonal variability regarding the nature of precipitation and the activity of cumulus convectionduring the 1991 Meiyu season of Changjiang-Huaihe River Basin(Jianghuai)has been investigatedby calculating apparent heat source/apparent moisture sink and analyzing TBB(cloud-topblackbody radiation temperature)data.It is found that three periods of strong ascending motionduring the Meiyu season lead to three episodes of heavy rain,and the latent heat due to theprecipitation is of the sole heat source of the atmosphere.The nature of precipitation showsdistinct seasonal variability,from frontal precipitation of the first episode to the extremely strongconvective precipitation of the third episode.TBB field of East Asia may well reflect not only theintensity of convection and rainfall,but also the movement of rain belt and convection belt.In thewhole Meiyu season.convection belt mainly stays in Jianghuai.but may shift within the domain ofEast Asia.Its locating in Jianghuai or not determines the maintenance or break of Meiyu.In thethird episode,the narrow convection belt over Jianghuai is mainly caused by southwest monsoonwhich takes moist and convective atmosphere from tropical ocean. 相似文献
7.
Seasonal variability regarding the nature of precipitation and the activity of cumulus convection during the 1991 Meiyu season of Changjiang-Huaihe River Basin(Jianghuai)has been investigated by calculating apparent heat source/apparent moisture sink and analyzing TBB(cloud-top blackody radiation temperature)data.It is found that three periods of strong ascending motion during the Meiyu season lead to three episodes of heavy rain,and the latent heat due to the precipitation is of the sole heat source of the atmosphere.The nature of precipitation shows distinct seasonal variability,from frontal precipitation of the first episode to the extremely strong convective precipitation of the third episode.TBB field of East Asia may well reflect not only the intensity of convection and rainfall,but also the movement of rain belt and convection belt.In the whole Meiyu season.convection belt mainly stays in Jianghuai.but may shift within the domain of East Asia.Its locating in Jianghuai or not determines the maintenance or break of Meiyu.In the third episode,the narrow convection belt over Jianghuai is mainly caused by southwest monsoon which takes moist and convective atmosphere from tropical ocean. 相似文献
8.
华南登陆台风频数的变化及其与ENSO事件的关系 总被引：9，自引：2，他引：9
利用 18 90～ 1999年登陆于我国的台风资料 (指热带风暴、强热带风暴及台风 ) ,主要采用小波分析方法研究华南登陆台风多时间尺度特征 ,并探讨台风与 ENSO事件的关系。结果表明 ,华南登陆台风占全国的 6 3%,平均每年 5个 (最多 10个、最少 1个 ) ,主要周期有 15、5、80年 ,在 2 0世纪 6 0年代以前 15年周期显著 ,6 0年代及以后5年周期明显。台风频数与 ENSO事件的类型及其季节有密切的关系 ,华南台风在拉尼娜年始于夏季的当年明显偏多 (比厄尔尼诺年平均多 1.8个 ) ,台风偏多年 (年频数≥ 7) ,也是拉尼娜年数多于厄尔尼诺年数。影响台风活动的因素非常复杂 ,对拉尼娜年一般可考虑当年台风可能偏多 ,但厄尔尼诺年台风偏多的可能性亦不容忽视。 相似文献
9.
Interannual and interdecadal variability of ocean temperature along the equatorial Pacific in conjunction with ENSO 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
In this paper, the leading modes of ocean temperature anomalies (OTA) along the equatorial Pacific Ocean are analyzed and their connection with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and interdecadal variation is investigated. The first two leading modes of OTA are connected with the different phases of the canonical ENSO and display asymmetric features of ENSO evolution. The third leading mode depicts a tripole pattern with opposite variation of OTA above the thermocline in the central Pacific to that along the thermocline in the eastern and western Pacific. This mode is found to be associated with so-called ENSO-Modoki. Insignificant correlations of this mode with the first two leading modes suggest that ENSO-Modoki may be a mode that is independent to the canonical ENSO and also has longer time scales compared with the canonical ENSO. The fourth mode reflects a warming (cooling) tendency above (below) the thermocline since 2000. Both the first and second modes have a large contribution to the interdecadal change in thermocline during 1979–2012. Also, the analysis also documents that both ENSO and OTA shifted into higher frequency since 2000 compared with that during 1979–1999. Interestingly, the ENSO-Modoki related OTA mode does not have any trend or significant interdecadal shift during 1979–2012. In addition, it is shown that first four EOF modes seem robust before and after 1999/2000, suggesting that the interdecadal shift of the climate system in the tropical Pacific is mainly a frequency shift and the changes in spatial pattern are relatively small, although the mean states over two periods experienced some significant changes. 相似文献
10.
THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE MOVEMENT OF THE MEIYU/BAIU RAIN BELT AND THE PERIODIC NORTHWESTWARD PROPAGATION OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FROM TROPICAL WEST PACIFIC* 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 In order to investigate the effect of the factors in tower latitudes on Meiyu/Baiu front,a diagnostic analysis for the two cases during June to July of 1985 and 1986 was examined.We found that (1) when the tropical convective activity moves westward to 10.5-15.5'N/140°E from east side of 10.5-15.5°N/160°E,the northward shifts of the Meiyu/Baiu rain belt occurs;(2)the main factor which results in the northward and southward shifts of Meiyu/Baiu rain belt is thought as the 8,18 and 30 day oscillations of the tropical convective activity around West Pacific.Meanwhile,the wave train propagating from Lake Baikal via Okhotsk Sea to the tropics could sometimes shift Baiu rain belt southward;(3) the onsets of Meiyu in China of both cases tend to take place just when the convective activity around lower latitudes moves westward through about 140°E with the 8,18 and 30 day oscillation periods firstly coming to June. 相似文献
11.
The TEEOF method that expands temporally is used to conduct a diagnostic study of the variation
patterns of 1, 3, 6 and 10 years with regard to mean air temperature over the globe and Southern and Northern
Hemispheres over the course of 100 years. The results show that the first mode of TEEOF takes up more than
50% in the total variance, with each of the first mode in the interannual oscillations generally standing for
annually varying patterns which are related with climate and reflecting long-term tendency of change in air temperature. It is particularly true for the first mode on the 10-year scale, which shows an obvious ascending trend concerning the temperature in winter and consistently the primary component of time goes in a way that is very close to the sequence of actual temperature. Apart from the first mode of all time sections of TEEOF for the globe and the two hemispheres and the second mode of the 1-year TEEOF, interannual variation described by other characteristic vectors are showing various patterns, with corresponding primary components having relation with long-term variability of specific interannual quasi-periodic oscillation structures. A 2 T test applied to the annual variation pattern shows that the abrupt changes for the Southern Hemisphere and the globe come closer to the result of a uni-element t test for mean temperature than those for the Northern Hemisphere do. It indicates that the T 2 test, when carried out with patterns of multiple variables, seems more reasonable than the t test with single elements. 相似文献
12.
西北太平洋热带气旋移动路径的年际变化及其机理研究 总被引：19，自引：3，他引：19
利用JTWC的热带气旋资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析的风场资料以及Scripps海洋研究所的海温资料分析了西北太平洋热带气旋(TC)移动路径的年际变化及其机理。结果表明,西北太平洋TC移动路径有明显的年际变化并与西太平洋暖池热状态有很密切的关系。当西太平洋暖池处于暖状态,西北太平洋上空TC移动路径偏西,影响中国的台风个数偏多;相反,当西太平洋暖池处于冷状态,西北太平洋的TC移动路径偏东,影响日本的台风个数偏多,而影响中国的台风个数可能偏少。本研究以西太平洋暖池处于冷状态的2004年与西太平洋暖池处于暖状态的2006年的西北太平洋TC移动路径的差别进一步论证了这一分析结果并从动力理论方面分析了在西太平洋暖池不同热状态下,季风槽对赤道西传天气尺度的Rossby重力混合波转变成热带低压型波动(TD型波动)的影响,以此揭示西太平洋暖池的热状态对西北太平洋TC生成位置与移动路径年际变化的影响机理。分析结果表明,当西北太平洋暖池处于暖状态时,季风槽偏西,使得热带太平洋上空对流层低层Rossby重力混合波转变成TD型波动的位置也偏西,从而造成TC生成平均位置偏西,并易于出现西行路径;相反,当西太平洋暖池处于冷状态时,季风槽偏东,这造成了对流层低层Rossby重力混合波转变成TD型波动的区域,以及TC生成的平均位置都偏东,从而导致TC移动路径以东北转向为主。 相似文献
13.
In the context of 1980-1992 JMA(Japan Meteorological Agency) GMS TBB gridded dataset,study is undertaken of annual cycle features of FFT-derived window power spectrum averaged over the record length,with localized space/time characteristics of low-frequency oscillation(LFO) in the tropical atmosphere investigated alongside possible causes.It turns out that the LFO takes on surprisingly noticeable annual cycle features marked by a wider variable range of the LFO periods over northern tropics than the southern counterpart and equatorial vicinity.In addition,on the whole,the signals are more intense in the Northern Hemisphere during summer/autumn and at equatorial/southern latitudes when northern winter/spring occur as well.Also,not all these features are identical for different segments at the same latitudes,displaying signatures on a local basis,and the spatial/temporal locality can be qualitatively interpreted in terms of nonlinear interaction between tropical waves,and modulation of diabatic heating on the LFO periods. 相似文献
14.
The oscillation of multi-time scales and the process of transition between cold and warm periods over most parts of China and its 6 regions (the Northeast,North China,Changjiang River Valley,South China,the Southwest,the Northwest) were analyzed with wavelet transformation and by computing the variances of the wavelet components for the temperature grade series during January 1911 to February 2001,The prediction model for cold and warm periods has been developed and the trend of cold and warm change in the coming 10 years is predicted.The results show that the oscillation with periods of around 30-40 years was the strongest in the last 100 years and the 3-year oscillation in both winter and summer was also stronger,especially in winter.The transition time of cold and warm periods in terms of winter mean did not coincide with that of annual mean,but the difference between summer mean and annual mean is less.The processes of transition of 6 regions are somewhat different,their main characteristics are that the beginning year of significant warming for 1980s to 1990s was very different for the southern and the northern part of China.It is found that the stronger oscillation with 3-year period causes cooling in Northeast China in recent several winters.The experimental predictions show that the models used in the paper can project the major transition between high and low temperature periods. 相似文献
15.
On the basis of observations and results from the combination of a statistical formation model and a trajectory model, the inter-decadal shift of prevailing TC tracks in the western North Pacific (WNP) are examined. The contributions of the changes in large-scale steering flows and tropical cyclone (TC) formation locations to the observed inter-decadal shift are investigated and their relative importance is determined. This study focuses on two periods, 1965–1986 (ID1) and 1987–2010 (ID2), which are determined based on the abrupt change of the annual category 4 and 5 TC frequency derived from the Bayesian change-point detection analysis. It is found that the models can well simulate the primary features of prevailing TC tracks on the inter-decadal timescale. From ID1 to ID2, a significant decrease in the frequency of TC occurrences is observed over the central South China Sea and well simulated by the models. Areas with a remarkable increase in the TC frequency, which extends from the Philippine Sea to the eastern coast of China and in the west of the WNP basin, are also reasonably simulated. Above changes in the prevailing TC tracks are attributed to (1) intensified cyclonic circulation centered over the western part of China and (2) more westward-southward expansion and intensification of the subtropical high over the WNP. Further analysis reveals that the inter-decadal shift in prevailing TC tracks is mainly resulted from the combined effects of changes in large-scale steering flows and TC formation locations. Although both contribute to the inter-decadal shift in the prevailing TC tracks, changes in large-scale steering flows play a more important role compared to changes in TC formation locations. 相似文献
16.
Based on the aqua-planet experiments, the wavenumber-frequency characteristics of tropical waves and their influencing factors in SST distribution and the convective parameterization scheme are investigated using the spectral atmospheric general circulation model （SAMIL）. Space-time spectral analysis is used to obtain the variance of convectively coupled tropical waves. In the Control experiment with maximum SST located at the equator the simulated tropical-wave behaviors are in agreement with those in observations and theoretical solutions. When the maximum SST is located at 5°N, the symmetric and antisymmetric waves are much weaker than those in the control experiment, suggesting that tropical wave activities are very sensitive to the SST distributions. Importantly, the variance maximum of Madden-Julian oscillation （MJO） is found to occur around 5°N, which suggests that the development of the MJO depends largely on the latitude of maximum SST. Furthermore, the seasonal variations of MJO may be mainly caused by the seasonal variations of the maximum SST. The experiment results with two different cumulus schemes the Manabe moist convective adjustment and Zhang-McFarlane （ZM） convective scheme, were also compared to examine the impacts of convective parameterization. Weakened variances of each individual tropical wave when the ZM scheme is used suggest that the ZM scheme is not favorable for the tropical wave activities. However, the wave characteristics are different when the ZM scheme is used in different models, which may imply that the simulated basic state is important to the meridional distributions of the waves. The MJO signals suggest that the parameterization scheme may have great influence on the strength, but have less direct impact on the MJO distribution. The frequency of the tropical waves may be associated with the moisture control of convection and the large-scale condensation scheme used in the model. 相似文献
17.
对１９５１～１９９４年６～７月江淮下游（６站平均）雨量距平进行小波变换,结果表明：该区域６～７月雨量存在着两个明显的周期振荡,一个是２８～２９年的长周期,另一个是８～９年的中周期．文中分析了两个周期的不同位相所对应的雨量特征,提出６～７月雨量趋势的预测思路,预测结果与实况对比表明,对雨量偏少年及连续两个干旱年有较好的预测能力 相似文献
18.
19.
福建前汛期持续性强降水的大气低频特征分析 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
本文采用福建1979—2010年66个气象站逐日降水资料和NCEP再分析资料和OLR资料,揭示了福建前汛期降水的低频特征,分析了福建前汛期持续性强降水同期的大气低频特征以及前期低频信号的演变特征,结果表明:(1)福建前汛期降水存在显著的低频周期,出现频率较高的前三个低频周期分别为:10~20、30~60和20~30 d;约63%的年份出现两种以上显著的低频周期;10~90 d低频变化占前汛期降水总方差的20%~30%;(2)前汛期总雨量与降水低频信号的强度呈显著正相关关系,持续性强降水的强度和持续时间与降水的低频特征关系密切,以BWO(ISO)为主的年份,持续性强降水的持续时间较短(长)。(3)福建前汛期持续性强降水期间日本以东、索马里以东和南海三个关键区皆为低频反气旋,日本至渤海湾南下的冷空气与索马里越赤道气流、南海南部越赤道气流在福建上空持续相遇形成低频气旋,导致福建上空低层低频辐合、高层低频辐散,对流活跃。(4)福建前汛期持续性强降水与热带及副热带大气低频变化密切相关,热带MJO的东传以及东亚西北太平洋地区低频信号的北传对福建持续性强降水过程的延伸期预报具有一定的指示意义。 相似文献
20.
This paper summarizes the long term and decadal time scale fluctuations of atmospheric circulation in the Southern(Hemisphere) middle and high latitudes.The long time series of Antarctic Oscillation Indices(AOIs) were established for January.April.July and October based on the historical sea level pressure maps and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis surface pressure data set.It was found that the AOI of January had upward trend at a rate of 1.17 hPa/100 a.and July haddownward trend at a rate of -1.49 hPa/100 a since 1871.The method of wavelet analysis wasapplied to detect the low frequency characteristics of AOIs,and it is clear that there are decadalvariations in the time scale of about 20-30 years in all 4 indices.Since the averaged value of 4months could explain most variance of annual AOI.thus it is reasonable using the mean AOI of January,April,July and October to represent the annual AOI.The value of annual AOI was much lower in periods of about 1894-1901.1910-1935,and was much higher in periods of about 1880-1893,1936-1945.The positive anomalies were remarkable since 1980s.Power spectra of modeled AOIs from Hadley Center Control Integration(HCCI) were compared with the observations,it is found that the interannual time scale frequencies were more significant than decadal frequencies.But.there also had the possibility for generating weak deeadal fluctuations in some special months and years by Hasselmann mechanism. 相似文献