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1.
The land-surface flux model (PROGSURF) designed jointly at the Universities of Vienna and Budapest is reviewed; it belongs to the broad spectrum of PILPS1 models. PROGSURF comprises one vegetation layer and three soil layers. Temperature prediction is made by the heat conduction equation in conjunction with the force-restore method. Turbulent heat fluxes are parameterized by gradient laws using the resistance concept. The formula for the canopy surface resistance involves both a parameter describing atmospheric demand and one describing moisture availability. Soil moisture prediction is made with Richards' equation. PROGSURF is tested in off-line mode for the Cabauw data set. The observed annual mean values of the state and flux quantities at the earth's surface are well reproduced. For example, the model yields latent and sensible heat fluxes of −35.3 and −2.4 W/m2, respectively; evapotranspiration and runoff is −449 and 326 mm/yr; and root zone soil moisture content is 0.344 m3/m3. Further, the seasonal changes of water and energy balance components are well simulated. The sensitivity of PROGSURF to the canopy resistance formulation is analysed. We find that the atmospheric demand is largely represented by the saturation value of the evapotranspiration/soil moisture curve with maximum summer impact upon the annual value and further that the moisture availability is represented by the slope of the evapotranspiration curve. Both saturation value and slope control the amplitude of the seasonal fluctuation of the water balance components; at Cabauw site the saturation value is the governing parameter. These results fit satisfactorily into the other PILPS models. In particular, we are able to reproduce with PROGSURF the total variability of most other PILPS models by simply changing the atmospheric demand and soil moisture availability parameters. PROGSURF presently serves to simulate observed surface fluxes for an atmospheric diagnostic model.  相似文献   

2.
The energy components of sixteen Soil-Vegetation Atmospheric Transfer (SVAT) schemes were analyzed and intercompared using 10 years of surface meteorological and radiative forcing data from the Red-Arkansas River basin in the Southern Great Plains of the United States. Comparisons of simulated surface energy fluxes among models showed that the net radiation and surface temperature generally had the best agreement among the schemes. On an average (annual and monthly) basis, the estimated latent heat fluxes agreed (to within approximate estimation errors) with the latent heat fluxes derived from a radiosonde-based atmospheric budget method for slightly more than half of the schemes. The sensible heat fluxes had larger differences among the schemes than did the latent heat fluxes, and the model-simulated ground heat fluxes had large variations among the schemes. The spatial patterns of the model-computed net radiation and surface temperature were generally similar among the schemes, and appear reasonable and consistent with observations of related variables, such as surface air temperature. The spatial mean patterns of latent and sensible heat fluxes were less similar than for net radiation, and the spatial patterns of the ground heat flux vary greatly among the 16 schemes. Generally, there is less similarity among the models in the temporal (interannual) variability of surface fluxes and temperature than there is in the mean fields, even for schemes with similar mean fields.  相似文献   

3.
We present the hydrometeorology of eastern Asia during April 1995 simulated by the Regional Climate System Model. The amount and location of simulated monthly precipitation agrees well with observations. Soil water content variation was closely correlated with precipitation. Land-surface evaporation and the surface energy budget were strongly controlled by soil moisture content. A sensitivity test with reduced initial soil moisture content suggested that near-surface soil moisture spins up quickly after heavy precipitation events. However, variations in the initial soil moisture field may alter details of the simulated precipitation which can introduce further complexity in climate simulations.  相似文献   

4.
Results from the 14 land surface parameterization schemes involved in the PILPS-RICE Workshop are compared for a soya crop growing season (from June to September). During this period, the transpiration flux dominates the total surface evapotranspiration and observed data from HAPEX-MOBILHY are available for comparison. Results indicate that during the month of June half of the models fall within the uncertainty range of the observations. The scatter between models behaviour is explained by three major reasons:
• The functional dependency between soil moisture and transpiration;
• the initial moisture content at the beginning of the period;
• the vertical discretization within the soil and the extension of the root system that defines the soil water holding capacity for plants
Examination of diurnal cycles of evaporation reveals that formulations based on the supply-demand concept are very sensitive to the specification of the root zone.This analysis underlines the need for more sensitivity experiments to be done with the current forcing data set and more detailed datasets to be collected in future field experiments (e.g. latent heat flux during all the growing season, root zone distribution).  相似文献   

5.
Today, most land surface process models have prescribed seasonal change of vegetation with regard to the exchange processes between land and the atmosphere. However, in order to consider the real interaction between vegetation and atmosphere and represent it best in a climate model, the vegetation growth process should be included. In other words, “life” should be brought into climate models. In this study, we have coupled the physical and biological components of AVIM (Atmosphere–Vegetation Interaction Model), a land surface model including plant ecophysiological processes, into the IAP/LASG L9 R15 GOALS GCM. To exhibit terrestrial vegetation information, the vegetation is given a high resolution of 1.5° by 1.5° to nest and couple the fine grid cells of land with the coarse grid cells of atmosphere, which is 7.5° longitude and 4.5° latitude. The simulated monthly mean surface air temperature and precipitation is close to the observations. The monthly mean Leaf Area Index (LAI) is consistent with the observed data. The global annual mean net primary production (NPP) simulation is also reasonable. The coupled model is stable, providing a good platform for research on two-way interaction between land and atmosphere, and the global terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycle.  相似文献   

6.
The Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) conducted simulations by 30 different atmospheric general circulation models forced by observed sea surface temperatures for the 10-year period, 1979–1988. These models include a variety of different soil moisture parameterizations which influence their simulations of the entire land surface hydrology, including evaporation, soil moisture, and runoff, and their simulations of the energy balance at the surface. Here we compare these parameterizations, and evaluate their simulations of soil moisture by comparing them with actual observations of soil moisture, literally ground truth. We compared model-generated ‘data sets' and simulations of soil moisture with observations from 150 stations in the former Soviet Union for 1979–1985 and Illinois for 1981–1988. The spatial patterns, mean annual cycles, and interannual variations were compared to plant-available soil moisture in the upper 1 m of soil. The model-generated ‘data sets' are quite different from the observations, and from each other in many regions, even though they use the same bucket model calculation method. The AMIP model simulations are also quite different from each other, especially in the tropics. Models with 15-cm field capacities do not capture the observed large high latitude values of soil moisture. In addition, none of the models properly simulate winter soil moisture variations in high latitudes, keeping soil moisture constant, while observations show that soil moisture varies in the winter as much as in other seasons. The observed interannual variations of soil moisture were not captured by any of the AMIP models. Several models have large soil moisture trends during the first year or two of the AMIP simulations, with potentially large impacts on global hydrological cycle trends and on other climate elements. This is because the simulations were begun without spinning up the soil moisture to the model climatology. The length of time it took for each to reach equilibrium depended on the particular parameterization. Although observed temporal autocorrelation time scales are a few months, some models had much longer time scales than that. In particular, the three parameterizations based on the Simple Biosphere model (SiB) had trends in some regions for virtually the entire AMIP simulation period.  相似文献   

7.
HAPEX-MOBILHY data, consisting of one year of hourly atmospheric forcing data at Caumont (SAMER No. 3, 43.68°N, 0.1°W) were used repeatedly to run the two-layer Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC-2L) land-surface scheme until the model reached equilibrium in its water and energy balance. The equilibrium results are compared with one year of weekly soil moisture measurements at different depths, the estimated latent heat fluxes for 35 days of the intensive observation period (IOP), and the accumulated evaporation, runoff and drainage for the entire soya crop season. The latent heat flux comparisons show that VIC-2L tends to underestimate the evaporation due to the low soil moisture in its upper layer. The soil moisture comparison shows that the total soil water content is well simulated in general, but the soil water content in the top 0.5 m is underestimated, especially in May and June. These comparisons suggest that the lack of a mechanism for moving moisture from the lower to the upper soil layer in VIC-2L is the main cause for model error in the HAPEX-MOBILHY application. A modified version of VIC-2L, which has a new feature that allows diffusion of moisture between soil layers, and a 0.1 m thin layer on top of the previous upper layer, is described. In addition, the leaf area index (LAI) and the fraction vegetation cover are allowed to vary at each time step in a manner consistent with the rest PILPS-RICE Workshop, rather than being seasonally fixed. With these modifications, the VIC-2L simulations are re-evaluated. These changes are shown to resolve most of the structural deficiencies in the original version of the model. The sensitivity analysis of the new version of the model to the choices of soil depths and root distribution show that the evapotranspiration and soil moisture at the model equilibrium state are more sensitive to the root distribution than to the soil depth.  相似文献   

8.
This study documents the new PLACE soil hydrology model, and examines the effects of various parameterization schemes on the solution of the Richards equation. Richards equation is the basis upon which many of the land surface schemes participating in the PILPS experiments model soil water transport. Generally, the integration is carried out using a coarse model grid, which makes the solution more sensitive to particulars of the parameterization scheme. Parameterization schemes for the lower boundary condition, lateral interflow, and for moisture fluxes between model layers are tested in PLACE using both high and low resolution grids. Simulations were made using PILPS-HAPEX forcing data and soil and vegetation parameters. The soil hydrology model is validated against the annual observed HAPEX soil moisture profiles. The predicted evapotranspiration is also compared to a value computed from the PILPS-HAPEX forcing data using the Penman-Monteith equation.When testing a low-resolution soil grid typical of land surface schemes, predicted soil moisture was found to be highly sensitive to the interpolation method for computing vertical moisture fluxes between model layers. A new interpolation method for low resolution models is proposed and tested. It reproduces the high resolution model results more faithfully, over the entire range of soil moisture, than two methods commonly applied in the literature. Further tests demonstrate that by varying the parameterizations for lower boundary condition and the treatment of lateral flow (collectively called drainage), the predicted total annual evapotranspiration may range between 74% and 97% of the incident precipitation in this case. Both of these parameterizations involve one free parameter, and both are largely unconstrained by the available observations. Good overall agreement between the PLACE predicted and HAPEX observed soil moisture profiles was attained by varying these two PLACE drainage parameters over their respective ranges for a series of model simulations. Root-mean square error tests were then used to determine the set of parameters which corresponded to the best predicted soil moisture profile. However, the best predicted soil moisture profiles do not correspond with the best predicted evapotranspiration. This inconsistency occurs not only for PLACE, but, to varying degrees, for all of the land-surface schemes participating in PILPS-HAPEX.  相似文献   

9.
The goal of the Project for Intercomparison of Land-surface Parameterization Schemes (PILPS) is to improve the understanding of the interactions between the atmosphere and the continental surface in climate and weather forecast models. In PILPS Phase 4(b), selected schemes are coupled to the Limited Area Prediction System (LAPS) developed by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. To facilitate the comparison of PILPS schemes' behavior within LAPS, a single mode of coupling is selected: explicit coupling. This type of coupling is more flexible and avoids most of the problems raised when interchanging the surface schemes. Exploratory tests are conducted. Initially, experiments are run in which the land-surface schemes use the same parameters as in their original host models. Then, in other runs, the most important surface parameters are set constant in an attempt to reduce the scatter amongst the schemes' results. In order to understand the impact of initialisation of soil moisture on the schemes' results some extreme cases (wet and dry) are performed. The partitioning between surface fluxes is studied as well as the soil moisture budget. Both regional and local results are analysed. Sensitivity between LSS is found in the precipitation field with rainfall over the Australian continent altering by about 20%, but no significant change is found in the net radiation. The scatter in the surface energy fluxes amongst the schemes is large (up to 300 W m−2 locally, during the daytime peak) but is seldom affected by the choice of surface parameters. The dynamical range of flux partitioning between extremely dry and wet initialisation varies strongly amongst the schemes. Some major shortcoming with the BUCKET approach are seen in the re-evaporation of convective precipitation over dry land, in the very large evaporation from wet surfaces and the diurnal cycle of surface temperature.  相似文献   

10.
A 3-D Atmospheric Chemical Transport model has been developed and used to simulate the present-day ozone distributions in the troposphere and stratosphere. A 5-year-long steady-state model run using 1995 boundary conditions and circulation fields derived from the 24-layer University of Illinois at Urban a-Champaign (UIUC) Atmospheric General Circulation model has been carried out. The simulated distribution of ozone is compared with available observations made by the HALOE, CLAES and MLS instruments onboard the LIARS satellite. The comparison is carried out for the monthly zonal-mean climatology of the ozone distribution. The correlations between the monthly zonal-mean ozone derived from the simulated and measured data are calculated. The results of this comparison show reasonable agreement (within 30%) of the simulated and measured monthly zonal-mean ozone distributions, although the location of the simulated maximum in the ozone distribution is generally lower by about 2–3 km than shown by the satellite data. The model overestimates the ozone mixing ratio in the lower stratosphere and slightly underestimates it in the upper stratosphere. A better overall agreement was found between the simulated ozone and the ozone measured by HALOE than by CLAES and MLS.  相似文献   

11.
Usoskin  I.G.  Mursula  K.  Kovaltsov  G.A. 《Solar physics》2003,218(1-2):295-305
Some periods before 1820 are poorly covered by sunspot observations. In addition to apparent, long observational gaps, there are also periods when there are only few sparse daily sunspot observations during a long time. It is important to estimate the reliability of the monthly and yearly mean sunspot values obtained from such sparse daily data. Here we suggest a new method to estimate the reliability of individual monthly means. The method is based on comparing the actual sparse data (sample population) to the well-measured sunspot data in 1850–1996 (reference population), and assumes that the statistical properties of sunspot activity remain similar throughout the entire period. For each sample population we first found those months in the reference population that contain the same data set, and constructed the statistical distribution of the corresponding monthly means. The mean and standard error of this distribution represent the mean and uncertainty of a monthly mean sunspot number reconstructed from sparse daily observations. The simple arithmetic mean of daily values can be adequately applied for months which contain more than 4–5 evenly distributed daily observations. However, the reliability of monthly means for less covered months has to be estimated more carefully. Using the estimated, new monthly values, we have also calculated the weighted annual sunspot numbers.  相似文献   

12.
A simulation model based on satellite observations of monthly vegetation cover was used to estimate monthly carbon fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems from 1982 to 1998. The NASA–CASA model was driven by vegetation properties derived from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and radiative transfer algorithms that were developed for Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). For the terrestrial biosphere, predicted net ecosystem production (NEP) flux for atmospheric CO2 has varied widely between an annual source of −0.9 Pg C per year and a sink of +2.1 Pg C per year. The southern hemisphere tropical zones (SHT, between 0° and 30°S) have a major influence over the predicted global trends in interannual variability of NEP. In contrast, the terrestrial NEP sink for atmospheric CO2 on the North American (NA) continent has been fairly consistent between +0.2 and +0.3 Pg C per year, except during relatively cool annual periods when continental NEP fluxes are predicted to total to nearly zero. The predicted NEP sink for atmospheric CO2 over Eurasia (EA) increased notably in the late 1980s and has been fairly consistent between +0.3 and +0.55 Pg C per year since 1988. High correlations can be detected between the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and predicted NEP fluxes on the EA continent and for the SHT latitude zones, whereas NEP fluxes for the North American continent as a whole do not correlate strongly with ENSO events over the same time series since 1982. These observations support the hypothesis that regional climate warming has had notable but relatively small-scale impacts on high latitude ecosystem (tundra and boreal) sinks for atmospheric CO2.  相似文献   

13.
The precipitation and low-level air temperature in East Asia from a regional climate model (RCM) hindcast for the 22-year period 1979–2000 is evaluated against observational data in preparation for the model use in regional climate change research. Emphasis of the evaluation is placed on the RCM capability in capturing the temporal and spatial variability of precipitation and low-level temperature, especially in conjunction with important climatological events such as, ENSO and East Asian monsoon, at three spatial scales of continental, subcontinental, and river basins.Spatial anomaly correlation time series of geopotential height and temperature show that the simulated upper-air fields remain consistent with the driving large-scale fields, NCEP Reanalysis 2 (R2), throughout the period. The simulated seasonal shifts in 850 hPa winds also agree well with R2 over eastern China and the western Pacific Ocean although the magnitudes of the shifts are overestimated, especially over the eastern slope of the Tibetan Plateau and in northern Manchuria. The simulated precipitation climatology agrees reasonably with that from two analysis datasets based on station- and remote-sensing data. Outstanding characteristics of precipitation including the location of the main rainband, climatological means, and the spatiotemporal variability in association with East Asian Monsoon, ENSO, and extreme events, are well represented in the hindcast. The most notable bias in the simulated precipitation is an overestimation of winter rainfall in southwestern coast of China, near the border with Vietnam. The simulation overestimates the interannual variability of seasonal precipitation especially in southern China, however, the corresponding coefficients of variation agree reasonably with observations except in very dry regions. This suggests that climate sensitivity of scaled precipitation can be useful for projecting climate change signals. The simulated low-level temperature climatology agrees reasonably with observational data as well. The most noticeable biases in the simulated low-level temperature are the warm (cold) biases in southern Siberia (northeastern China) during winter (summer) and the systematic underestimation of low-level temperature in the Tibetan Plateau for all seasons. The daily maximum temperature is underestimated for all seasons by 2−3 K with the largest biases in spring and fall except in the northwestern Mongolia region where it has been overestimated during winter. The daily minimum temperature biases ranges from 0.3 K in spring to 2 K in winter, and are much smaller than those in daily maximum temperature. The evaluation of the multidecadal hindcast shows that model errors mostly confined in the region near the lateral boundaries of the model domain with only minor biases in eastern China. This allows us to be cautiously optimistic about the RCM usefulness for studies of precipitation and low-level temperature changes in East Asia induced by increased emissions of greenhouse gases.  相似文献   

14.
Reviews of long-term predictions of solar cycles have shown that a precise prediction with a lead time of 2 years or more of a solar cycle remains an unsolved problem. We used a simple method, the method of similar cycles, to make long-term predictions of not only the maximum amplitude but also the smoothed monthly mean sunspot number for every month of Solar Cycle 23. We verify and compare our prediction with the latest available observational results.  相似文献   

15.
To better understand long-term flare activity, we present a statistical study on soft X-ray flares from May 1976 to May 2008. It is found that the smoothed monthly peak fluxes of C-class, M-class, and X-class flares have a very noticeable time lag of 13, 8, and 8 months in cycle 21 respectively with respect to the smoothed monthly sunspot numbers. There is no time lag between the sunspot numbers and M-class flares in cycle 22. However, there is a one-month time lag for C-class flares and a one-month time lead for X-class flares with regard to sunspot numbers in cycle 22. For cycle 23, the smoothed monthly peak fluxes of C-class, M-class, and X-class flares have a very noticeable time lag of one month, 5 months, and 21 months respectively with respect to sunspot numbers. If we take the three types of flares together, the smoothed monthly peak fluxes of soft X-ray flares have a time lag of 9 months in cycle 21, no time lag in cycle 22 and a characteristic time lag of 5 months in cycle 23 with respect to the smoothed monthly sunspot numbers. Furthermore, the correlation coefficients of the smoothed monthly peak fluxes of M-class and X-class flares and the smoothed monthly sunspot numbers are higher in cycle 22 than those in cycles 21 and 23. The correlation coefficients between the three kinds of soft X-ray flares in cycle 22 are higher than those in cycles 21 and 23. These findings may be instructive in predicting C-class, M-class, and X-class flares regarding sunspot numbers in the next cycle and the physical processes of energy storage and dissipation in the corona.  相似文献   

16.
Current methods for deriving thermal inertia from spacecraft observations of planetary brightness temperature generally assume that surface properties are uniform for any given observation or co-located set of observations. As a result of this assumption and the nonlinear relationship between temperature and thermal inertia, sub-pixel horizontal heterogeneity may yield different apparent thermal inertia at different times of day or seasons. We examine the effects of horizontal heterogeneity on Mars by modeling the thermal behavior of various idealized mixed surfaces containing differing proportions of either dust, sand, duricrust, and rock or slope facets at different angles and azimuths. Latitudinal effects on mixed-surface thermal behavior are also investigated. We find large (several 100 J m−2 K−1 s−1/2) diurnal and seasonal variations in apparent thermal inertia even for small (∼10%) admixtures of materials with moderately contrasting thermal properties or slope angles. Together with similar results for layered surfaces [Mellon, M.T., Putzig, N.E., 2007. Lunar Planet. Sci. XXXVIII. Abstract 2184], this work shows that the effects of heterogeneity on the thermal behavior of the martian surface are substantial and may be expected to result in large variations in apparent thermal inertia as derived from spacecraft instruments. While our results caution against the over-interpretation of thermal inertia taken from median or average maps or derived from single temperature measurements, they also suggest the possibility of using a suite of apparent thermal inertia values derived from single observations over a range of times of day and seasons to constrain the heterogeneity of the martian surface.  相似文献   

17.
A key question in understanding life on Mars under dry(ing) conditions is how arid soils respond to small levels of liquid water. We have conducted a series of simulated rain experiments in the hyperarid core region of the Atacama Desert. Rain amounts from 0.24 to 3.55 mm were applied in the early evening to the soil. We conclude that rain events of less than 1 mm do not saturate the surface, and the soil humidity at the surface remains below 100%. Rain events of 2 mm or more generate free water in the pore space of the soil surface, which may be necessary to support biological activity in the soil. The crust on the surface of the soil is a strong barrier to the diffusion of subsurface moisture and subsequent evaporation. Our results show that once the relative humidity in hyperarid soils begins to fall below 100% the rate of decrease is quite rapid. Thus, the precise value assumed for the limits of life or water activity, do not appreciably change the time of water availability resulting from small desert rains. The Atacama Desert results may be applied to models of (H2O) wetting in the upper soils of Mars due to light rains, melting snow and heavy precipitating fog.  相似文献   

18.
We show that the new ephemeris-space multiple-address-comparison (eMAC) method solves asteroid linking problems despite large parallaxes by applying the method to astrometric asteroid observation sets obtained nearly simultaneously with the Spitzer space telescope, the Canada–France–Hawaii Telescope (CFHT), and European Southern Observatory's Very Large Telescope (VLT). For main-belt asteroids, the parallax between Spitzer and the Earth-based telescopes is approximately one degree which is large as compared to a typical parallax for solely Earth-based telescopes in the arcseconds regime. In the eMAC method, we reduce the initially huge amount of possible linkages between observation sets by comparing samples of ephemerides that have been computed separately for all sets at, say, three common dates. If the non-zero ephemeris probability densities overlap at all common dates, we try to find an orbit solution for these so-called trial linkages. If there exists an orbit which reproduces all the astrometric observations assuming predefined observational errors, we call it a linkage. Known asteroids are independently identified among Spitzer, CFHT, and VLT astrometry, and comparing the identified observations to the linkages found shows that the method found all known correct linkages present in the data. In addition, we also found five previously unpublished linkages between Spitzer astrometry and Earth-based astrometry. Based on our simulations, we found virtually all Spitzer-related linkages between two single-night observation sets, and more than 99.4% of linkages between two single-night observation sets obtained by Earth-based observatories. Virtually all correct linkages consisting of at least three single-night sets were also detected. The results show that large-parallax discovery observations made from a spacecraft can be linked to Earth-based follow-up observations to ensure that the objects are not lost. Furthermore, we compute the heliocentric and Spitzer-centric distances as well as the corresponding solar phase angles at the dates of Spitzer observations. Based on comparisons to simulated geocentric observations, we also show that, for typical nearly-simultaneous observations, the parallax reduces the distance uncertainties by several orders of magnitude.  相似文献   

19.
Démoulin  P.  Berger  M.A. 《Solar physics》2003,215(2):203-215
The source of coronal magnetic energy and helicity lies below the surface of the Sun, probably in the convective zone dynamo. Measurements of magnetic and velocity fields can capture the fluxes of both magnetic energy and helicity crossing the photosphere. We point out the ambiguities which can occur when observations are used to compute these fluxes. In particular, we show that these fluxes should be computed only from the horizontal motions deduced by tracking the photospheric cut of magnetic flux tubes. These horizontal motions include the effect of both the emergence and the shearing motions whatever the magnetic configuration complexity is. We finally analyze the observational difficulties involved in deriving such fluxes, in particular the limitations of the correlation tracking methods.  相似文献   

20.
Monthly runoff from the 34.3% glacierized tropical catchment of Llanganuco in the tropical Cordillera Blanca, Perú, is successfully simulated and compared with a measured 44 year time series. In the investigation area, the climate is characterized by all-year round homogenous temperature conditions and a strong variability in air humidity and moisture content of the atmosphere. Thus, contrary to the mid latitudes, the seasonal variation in glacier melt strongly depends on moisture-related variables, rather than on air temperature. The here presented ITGG-2.0-R model aims for these requirements. The lack of moisture-related input data other than precipitation demands for an intermediate calibration step. Net shortwave radiation, the emissivity of the atmosphere and a sublimation/melt ratio are related to precipitation amounts. Runoff is well simulated and correlates with the measured record with r2 = 0.76. Seasonally obtained r2 are only slightly smaller. On a long-term, the cumulative deviation is minor, and the mean annual cycle of runoff is reproduced rather well (r2 = 0.99). Based on four different IPCC climate change scenarios, future runoff is simulated. All runoff scenarios are modelled for the respective steady-state glacier extent. This leads to a reduction in the glacier size and a decreased amount of glacier melt. On the other hand, direct runoff increases due to larger glacier free areas. Consequently, mean annual runoff remains almost unchanged, but the seasonality intensifies considerably with more runoff during the wet and less runoff during the dry season.  相似文献   

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