共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 31 毫秒
1.
Gökhan Saygili 《Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards》2017,11(2):197-207
The conventional liquefaction potential assessment methods (also known as simplified methods) profoundly rely on empirical correlations based on observations from case histories. A probabilistic framework is developed to incorporate uncertainties in the earthquake ground motion prediction, the cyclic resistance prediction, and the cyclic demand prediction. The results of a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, site response analyses, and liquefaction potential analyses are convolved to derive a relationship for the annual probability and return period of liquefaction. The random field spatial model is employed to quantify the spatial uncertainty associated with the in-situ measurements of geotechnical material. 相似文献
2.
Quasi-Stochastic Analysis of Uncertainty for Modelling Structurally Controlled Failures 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
In one approach to predicting the behaviour of rock masses, effort is being devoted to the use of probabilistic methods to model structures interior to a rock mass (sometimes referred to as ‘inferred’ or ‘stochastic’ structures). The physical properties of these structures (e.g. position, orientation, size) are modelled as random parameters, the statistical properties of which are derived from the measurements of a sample of the population (sometimes referred to as ‘deterministic’ structures). Relatively little attention has been devoted to the uncertainty associated with the deterministic structures. Typical geotechnical analyses rely on either an entirely stochastic analysis, or deterministic analyses representing the structures with a fixed shape (i.e. disc), position, size, and orientation. The simplifications assumed for this model introduce both epistemic and stochastic uncertainties. In this paper, it is shown that these uncertainties should be quantified and propagated to the predictions of behaviour derived from subsequent analyses. We demonstrate a methodology which we have termed quasi-stochastic analysis to perform this propagation. It is shown that relatively small levels of uncertainty can have large influence on the uncertainties associated with geotechnical analyses, such as predictions of block size and block stability, and therefore this methodology can provide the practitioner with a method for better interpretation of these results. 相似文献
3.
A Review of the IAG GeoPT™ and Certification Programmes,their Protocols,and the Differences between the Original and Potential Modifications to the Certification Protocol 
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下载免费PDF全文 Jean S. Kane 《Geostandards and Geoanalytical Research》2015,39(4):419-432
The IAG conducts two programmes, the GeoPT ? proficiency test and a certification programme that are closely interconnected. Both support the quality control/quality assurance activities of geochemical laboratories. Each derives an estimate of ‘true value’ for a number of samples, but arrives at that estimate, and its uncertainty, differently. This review discusses the history of the two programmes and compares the ‘true values’ and their uncertainties obtained through each. It then considers ‘fitness‐for‐purpose’ issues related to both GeoPT ? and certification uncertainties. Issues related to potential modification of the IAG protocol for certification are also considered. 相似文献
4.
This study presents the response of a vertically loaded pile in undrained clay considering spatially distributed undrained
shear strength. The probabilistic study is performed considering undrained shear strength as random variable and the analysis
is conducted using random field theory. The inherent soil variability is considered as source of variability and the field
is modeled as two dimensional non-Gaussian homogeneous random field. Random field is simulated using Cholesky decomposition technique within the finite difference program and Monte Carlo simulation approach is considered for the probabilistic analysis.
The influence of variance and spatial correlation of undrained shear strength on the ultimate capacity as summation of ultimate
skin friction and end bearing resistance of pile are examined. It is observed that the coefficient of variation and spatial
correlation distance are the most important parameters that affect the pile ultimate capacity. 相似文献
5.
6.
ABSTRACTThis paper investigates the effects of site-specific uncertainties in soil strength and stiffness parameters on the commonly used ground motion intensity measures and the resulting engineering demand parameters of moment resisting frames of varying heights at a site in Los Angeles, California. Through a detailed site-specific uncertainty analysis, comparison with generic data, and an extensive parametric study, it is shown that underestimation or overestimation of the true soil uncertainties could significantly affect both the average values and variabilities of the Arias intensity and PGA, and that the uncertainty in the soil strength parameter has more profound effect on the intensity measures than the uncertainty in the soil stiffness parameter. It is also shown that depending upon the natural period of a structure, the uncertainty in both the soil strength and stiffness parameters could affect its peak floor acceleration and peak inter-story drift. Moreover, it is observed that the structure amplifies the soil uncertainty more than the seismological uncertainty. 相似文献
7.
Displacement is vital in the evaluations of tunnel excavation processes,as well as in determining the postexcavation stability of surrounding rock masses.The prediction of tunnel displacement is a complex problem because of the uncertainties of rock mass properties.Meanwhile,the variation and the correlation relationship of geotechnical material properties have been gradually recognized by researchers in recent years.In this paper,a novel probabilistic method is proposed to estimate the uncertainties of rock mass properties and tunnel displacement,which integrated multivariate distribution function and a relevance vector machine(RVM).The multivariate distribution function is used to establish the probability model of related random variables.RVM is coupled with the numerical simulation methods to construct the nonlinear relationship between tunnel displacements and rock mass parameters,which avoided a large number of numerical simulations.Also,the residual rock mass parameters are taken into account to reflect the brittleness of deeply buried rock mass.Then,based on the proposed method,the uncertainty of displacement in a deep tunnel of CJPL-II laboratory are analyzed and compared with the in-situ measurements.It is found that the predicted tunnel displacements by the RVM model closely match with the measured ones.The correlations of parameters have significant impacts on the uncertainty results.The uncertainty of tunnel displacement decreases while the reliability of the tunnel increases with the increases of the negative correlations among rock mass parameters.When compared to the deterministic method,the proposed approach is more rational and scientific,and also conformed to rock engineering practices. 相似文献
8.
均匀性检验是环境标准样品研制的重要技术环节,在均匀性检验过程中,数据漂移对环境标准样品均匀性判定及其不确定度评定的影响不容忽视。本文结合实例,从实验方案和数理统计方法等方面探讨了随机分析法、随机区组法、内插校正法、趋势分析校正法等均匀性检验实验方案及数据漂移校正方法。提出采用t检验法判断数据漂移的显著性,在数据漂移趋势不显著的情况下,采用随机分析法进行标准样品的均匀性检验。在数据漂移显著的情况下,宜采用内插校正法或趋势分析校正法对均匀性数据进行漂移校正。以某土壤中Ni元素均匀性检验为例,经采用内插校正法和趋势分析校正法校正漂移数据后,测量值的相对标准偏差(RSD)由3.0%分别下降为1.4%和1.2%,直线模型斜率的绝对值由0.2003 mg/kg分别下降为0.02870mg/kg和4.709×10~(-5)mg/kg。土壤中Ni、Cu、Co、Tl等4种重金属元素的瓶间均匀性不确定度分量(u_(bb))与随机分析法相比,下降最高达78%。在长时间分析测试过程中数据漂移校正效果欠佳的情况下,宜采用随机区组法进行标准样品的均匀性检验。 相似文献
9.
Bearing capacity of strip footings on spatially random soils using sparse polynomial chaos expansion
A probabilistic model is presented to compute the probability density function (PDF) of the ultimate bearing capacity of a strip footing resting on a spatially varying soil. The soil cohesion and friction angle were considered as two anisotropic cross‐correlated non‐Gaussian random fields. The deterministic model was based on numerical simulations. An efficient uncertainty propagation methodology that makes use of a non‐intrusive approach to build up a sparse polynomial chaos expansion for the system response was employed. The probabilistic numerical results were presented in the case of a weightless soil. Sobol indices have shown that the variability of the ultimate bearing capacity is mainly due to the soil cohesion. An increase in the coefficient of variation of a soil parameter (c or φ) increases its Sobol index, this increase being more significant for the friction angle. The negative correlation between the soil shear strength parameters decreases the response variability. The variability of the ultimate bearing capacity increases with the increase in the coefficients of variation of the random fields, the increase being more significant for the cohesion parameter. The decrease in the autocorrelation distances may lead to a smaller variability of the ultimate bearing capacity. Finally, the probabilistic mean value of the ultimate bearing capacity presents a minimum. This minimum is obtained in the isotropic case when the autocorrelation distance is nearly equal to the footing breadth. However, for the anisotropic case, this minimum is obtained at a given value of the ratio between the horizontal and vertical autocorrelation distances. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
10.
Anil Misra Lance A. Roberts Steven M. Levorson 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》2007,25(1):65-77
Load displacement analysis of drilled shafts can be accomplished by utilizing the “t-z” method, which models soil resistance
along the length and tip of the drilled shaft as a series of springs. For non-linear soil springs, the governing differential
equation that describes the soil-structure interaction may be discretized into a set of algebraic equations based upon finite
difference methods. This system of algebraic equations may be solved to determine the load–displacement behavior of the drilled
shaft when subjected to compression or pullout. By combining the finite difference method with Monte Carlo simulation techniques, a probabilistic load–displacement analysis can be conducted. The probabilistic analysis is advantageous
compared to standard factor of safety design because uncertainties with the shaft–soil interface and tip properties can be
independently quantified. This paper presents a reliability analysis of drilled shaft behavior by combining the finite difference
technique for analyzing non-linear load–displacement behavior with Monte Carlo simulation method. As a result we develop probabilistic relationships for drilled shaft design for both total stress (undrained)
and effective stress (drained) parameters. The results are presented in the form of factor of safety or resistance factors
suitable for serviceability design of drilled shafts. 相似文献
11.
J. Michael Duncan 《Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards》2017,11(1):70-74
ABSTRACTA core principle of geotechnical engineering practice is the need to exercise judgement in evaluating soil and site conditions and in performing analyses. The requirement for considering judgement applies equally to performing deterministic or probabilistic analyses. In addition, for probabilistic analyses, choices must be made among the possible methods of analysis and the method of characterising variables. Consequently, geotechnical reliability studies inevitably involve significant uncertainties, and judgement is needed to perform reliability analyses and to evaluate the results. Two case histories, briefly described here, show that judgement and experience are essential prerequisites for meaningful assessment of geotechnical reliability. 相似文献
12.
Naresh C. Samtani John M. Kulicki 《Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards》2020,14(3):231-243
ABSTRACT In the bridge design specifications of the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) using the Load and Resistance Factor Design (LRFD) method, the loads and resulting force effects are given two-letter designations, e.g. “SE” for “force effects due to settlement”. The SE load factor is used to develop factored values of the induced force effects such as moments and shears in a bridge structure due to foundation movements. In 2018 AASHTO committees voted to adopt calibrated values of the SE load factors that account for the uncertainty in predicted foundation movements from different analytical methods. However, additional uncertainty can occur in the differential settlements. This paper explores the additional uncertainty in differential settlements of bridge foundations and retaining walls using the datasets for two analytical methods that were used by AASHTO to develop the SE load factors for foundation settlement. Normalised probability exceedance charts (NPECs), that integrate the concept of reliability index and data correlation, have been developed and their application in bridge and wall design process is discussed for a variety of scenarios. Guidance is provided for the practical implementation of differential settlement in bridge analysis through an example problem. 相似文献
13.
A. A. Kabanov 《Astronomy Reports》2010,54(6):489-495
The impact of uncertainties in the relative efficiency of nucleosynthesis of various elements in stars on models of the chemical
evolution of disk galaxies is studied using a single-zone model for the galactic evolution. The dependences of the abundances
of 12C, 14N, 16O, and 56Fe on nucleosynthesis models are compared. The influence of the uncertainty in iron production by Type Ia supernovae on its
abundance in a galaxy is also considered. It is concluded that differences in nucleosynthesis models can appreciably affect
the results of modeling the early stages of galactic evolution, but this influence becomes insignificant at ages t> 109 yr. Uncertainties in the amount of iron ejected by Type Ia supernovae do not significantly influence the total galactic abundance
of iron. 相似文献
14.
The use of the possibility theory to investigate the epistemic uncertainties within scenario-based earthquake risk assessments 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
This paper presents a methodology to represent and propagate epistemic uncertainties within a scenario-based earthquake risk
model. Unlike randomness, epistemic uncertainty stems from incomplete, vague or imprecise information. This source of uncertainties
still requires the development of adequate tools in seismic risk analysis. We propose to use the possibility theory to represent
three types of epistemic uncertainties, namely imprecision, model uncertainty and vagueness due to qualitative information.
For illustration, an earthquake risk assessment for the city of Lourdes (Southern France) using this approach is presented.
Once adequately represented, uncertainties are propagated and they result in a family of probabilistic damage curves. The
latter is synthesized, using the concept of fuzzy random variables, by means of indicators bounding the true probability to
exceed a given damage grade. The gap between the pair of probabilistic indicators reflects the imprecise character of uncertainty
related to the model, thus picturing the extent of what is ignored and can be used in risk management. 相似文献
15.
Geotechnical engineering problems are characterized by many sources of uncertainty. Some of these sources are connected to the uncertainties of soil properties involved in the analysis. In this paper, a numerical procedure for a probabilistic analysis that considers the spatial variability of cross‐correlated soil properties is presented and applied to study the bearing capacity of spatially random soil with different autocorrelation distances in the vertical and horizontal directions. The approach integrates a commercial finite difference method and random field theory into the framework of a probabilistic analysis. Two‐dimensional cross‐correlated non‐Gaussian random fields are generated based on a Karhunen–Loève expansion in a manner consistent with a specified marginal distribution function, an autocorrelation function, and cross‐correlation coefficients. A Monte Carlo simulation is then used to determine the statistical response based on the random fields. A series of analyses was performed to study the effects of uncertainty due to the spatial heterogeneity on the bearing capacity of a rough strip footing. The simulations provide insight into the application of uncertainty treatment to geotechnical problems and show the importance of the spatial variability of soil properties with regard to the outcome of a probabilistic assessment. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
16.
Mohammad Wasim Mohammad Arif Sajid Iqbal Muhammad Daud 《Geostandards and Geoanalytical Research》2013,37(1):87-93
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) organised a proficiency test (PT), IAEA‐CU‐2010‐02, for the determination of elements in sewage sludge. The PT sample was analysed by semi‐absolute standardless k0‐instrumental neutron activation analysis (k0‐INAA). Results for seven elements (As, Co, Cr, Fe, Hg, Se, Zn) were submitted to the IAEA by our laboratory. All of our results were scored ‘acceptable’ by the ‘result evaluation criteria’ adopted by the IAEA. The same analytical methodology produced quantitative results for twenty‐six additional elements. In total, thirty‐six elements were determined with uncertainty varying from 4 to 11%. This paper presents the provisional mass fractions of twenty‐six additional elements (Ag, Al, Br, Ca, Ce, Cl, Dy, Eu, Ga, Hf, I, K, La, Mg, Mn, Na, Rb, Sb, Sc, Sm, Ta, Tb, Th, V, U, W) not reported by the IAEA. The analytical methodology was discussed with important sources of spectral, nuclear and fission‐product interferences. It was shown that the important components of uncertainties were the k0 factor, Q0 factor, detector efficiency, mass and counting statistics. The methodology was validated by analysing the IAEA‐S7 reference material. 相似文献
17.
Jinbo Chen Robert B. Gilbert 《Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards》2017,11(1):55-69
ABSTRACTRecent hurricanes between 2004 and 2008 in the Gulf of Mexico provide valuable new information about design model biases and uncertainties because multiple offshore platforms were loaded beyond the predicted capacity of their pile systems and because there was a failure of a pile system. A Bayesian calibration of model bias factors based on predicted versus observed performance of pile systems in hurricanes indicates that the conventional American Petroleum Institute design method for pile capacity is slightly conservative by about 10% for base shear (i.e. lateral) failures of pile systems in clay, unbiased for overturning (i.e. axial) failures of pile systems in clay, and conservative by more than 50% for overturning failures of piles systems in sand. The epistemic uncertainty in the updated bias factors is represented by coefficient of variation values of about 0.25 for base shear and overturning failures of pile systems in clay and 0.35 for overturning failures of pile systems in sand. A reliability assessment with the calibrated model bias factors shows that the current design practice produces lower reliability for a pile system with three piles versus one with eight piles and lower reliability for a pile system failing in overturning versus one failing in base shear. Therefore, the current design practice could potentially be improved by taking into account the mode of failure and the redundancy in the pile system to provide for a more uniform level of reliability. 相似文献
18.
Janaína N. vila Trevor R. Ireland Peter Holden Peter Lanc Andrew Latimore Norm Schram John Foster Ian S. Williams Liane Loiselle Bin Fu 《Geostandards and Geoanalytical Research》2020,44(1):85-102
Analytical protocols for SHRIMP‐SI oxygen isotope analysis (δ18O) of a suite of zircon reference materials (RMs) are presented. Data reduction involved a robust estimate of uncertainties associated with the individual spot as well as for groups where the spot data are combined. The repeatability of δ18O measurements is dependent on both the analytical conditions and the choice of the primary reference material. Under optimised conditions, repeatability was often better than 0.4‰ (2s) allowing sample uncertainties to be obtained to better than 0.2‰ (at 95% confidence limit). Single spot uncertainty combined the within‐spot precision with the scatter associated with repeated measurements of the primary zircon reference material during a measurement session. The uncertainty for individual spots measured under optimised conditions was between 0.3 and 0.4‰ (at 95% confidence). The analytical protocols described were used to assess a variety of zircon RMs that have been used for geochronology and for which laser fluorination oxygen isotope data are available (Temora 2, FC1, R33, QGNG and Ple?ovice), as well as zircons that have been used as RMs for trace element or other types of determination (Mud Tank, Monastery, 91500, AS57, AS3, KIM‐5, OG1, SL13, CZ3 and several other Sri Lankan zircons). Repeated analyses over nine sessions and seven different mounts show agreement within analytical uncertainty for Temora 2, FC1, R33, QGNG, Ple?ovice and 91500, when normalised to Mud Tank. For existing ion microprobe mounts with these materials, an appropriate δ18O can be determined. However, care should be taken when using zircons from the Duluth Complex (i.e., FC1, AS57 and AS3) as reference materials as our data indicated an excess scatter on δ18O values associated with low‐U zircon grains. 相似文献
19.
Community‐Derived Standards for LA‐ICP‐MS U‐(Th‐)Pb Geochronology – Uncertainty Propagation,Age Interpretation and Data Reporting 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 Matthew S. A. Horstwood George Gehrels Simon E. Jackson Noah M. McLean Chad Paton Norman J. Pearson Keith Sircombe Paul Sylvester Pieter Vermeesch James F. Bowring Daniel J. Condon Blair Schoene 《Geostandards and Geoanalytical Research》2016,40(3):311-332
The LA‐ICP‐MS U‐(Th‐)Pb geochronology international community has defined new standards for the determination of U‐(Th‐)Pb ages. A new workflow defines the appropriate propagation of uncertainties for these data, identifying random and systematic components. Only data with uncertainties relating to random error should be used in weighted mean calculations of population ages; uncertainty components for systematic errors are propagated after this stage, preventing their erroneous reduction. Following this improved uncertainty propagation protocol, data can be compared at different uncertainty levels to better resolve age differences. New reference values for commonly used zircon, monazite and titanite reference materials are defined (based on ID‐TIMS) after removing corrections for common lead and the effects of excess 230Th. These values more accurately reflect the material sampled during the determination of calibration factors by LA‐ICP‐MS analysis. Recommendations are made to graphically represent data only with uncertainty ellipses at 2s and to submit or cite validation data with sample data when submitting data for publication. New data‐reporting standards are defined to help improve the peer‐review process. With these improvements, LA‐ICP‐MS U‐(Th‐)Pb data can be considered more robust, accurate, better documented and quantified, directly contributing to their improved scientific interpretation. 相似文献
20.
Cao Xiaobin Bao Huiming Gao Caihong Liu Yun Huang Fang Peng Yongbo Zhang Yining 《中国地球化学学报》2019,38(3):327-334
Understanding the origin of ocean island basalts (OIB) has important bearings on Earth’s deep mantle. Although it is widely accepted that subducted oceanic crust, as a consequence of plate tectonics, contributes material to OIB’s formation, its exact fraction in OIB’s mantle source remains ambiguous largely due to uncertainties associated with existing geochemical proxies. Here we show, through theoretical calculation, that unlike many known proxies, triple oxygen isotope compositions (i.e. Δ17O) in olivine samples are not affected by crystallization and partial melting. This unique feature, therefore, allows olivine Δ17O values to identify subducted oceanic crusts in OIB’s mantle source. Furthermore, the fractions of subducted ocean sediments and hydrothermally altered oceanic crust in OIB’s mantle source can be quantified using their characteristic Δ17O values. Based on published Δ17O data, we estimated the fraction of subducted oceanic crust to be as high as 22.3% in certain OIB, but the affected region in the respective mantle plume is likely to be limited.
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