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1.
A quantitative vulnerability function for fluvial sediment transport 总被引：11，自引：6，他引：5
In quantitative risk assessment, risk is expressed as a function of hazard, elements at risk exposed, and vulnerability. Vulnerability
is defined as the expected degree of loss for an element at risk as a consequence of a certain event, following a natural-scientific
approach combined with economic methods of loss appraisal. The resulting value ranges from 0 (no damage) to 1 (complete destruction).
With respect to torrent processes, i.e., fluvial sediment transport, this concept of vulnerability—though widely acknowledged—did
not result in sound quantitative relationships between process intensities and associated degrees of loss so far, even if
considerable loss occurred during recent years. To close this gap and establish this relationship, data from three well-documented
torrent events in the Austrian Alps were used to derive a quantitative vulnerability function applicable to residential buildings
located on torrent fans. The method applied followed a spatially explicit empirical approach within a GIS environment and
was based on process intensities, the spatial characteristics of elements at risk, and average reconstruction values on a
local scale. Additionally, loss data were collected from responsible administrative bodies and analysed on an object level.
The results suggest a modified Weibull distribution to fit best to the observed damage pattern if intensity is quantified
in absolute values, and a modified Frechet distribution if intensity is quantified relatively in relation to the individual
building height. Additionally, uncertainties resulting from such an empirical approach were studied; in relation to the data
quality a 90% confidence band was found to represent the data range appropriately. The vulnerability relationship obtained
allows for an enhanced quantification of torrent risk, but also for an inclusion in comprehensive vulnerability models including
physical, social, economic, and institutional vulnerability. As a result, vulnerability to mountain hazards might decrease
in the future. 相似文献
2.
3.
Thanks to modelling advances and the increase in computational resources in recent years, it is now feasible to perform 2-D urban flood simulations at very high spatial resolutions and to conduct flood risk assessments at the scale of single buildings. In this study, we explore the sensitivity of flood loss estimates obtained in such micro-scale analyses to the spatial representation of the buildings in the 2D flood inundation model and to the hazard attribution methods in the flood loss model. The results show that building representation has a limited effect on the exposure values (i.e. the number of elements at risk), but can have a significant impact on the hazard values attributed to the buildings. On the other hand, the two methods for hazard attribution tested in this work result in remarkably different flood loss estimates. The sensitivity of the predicted flood losses to the attribution method is comparable to the one associated with the vulnerability curve. The findings highlight the need for incorporating these sources of uncertainty into micro-scale flood risk prediction methodologies. 相似文献
4.
Within the engineering profession and natural sciences, vulnerability is widely accepted to be defined as the degree of loss
(or damage) to a given element or set of elements within the area affected by a threat. The value of vulnerability is expressed
nondimensionally between 0 and 1. It is a fundamental component in the evaluation of landslide risk, and its accurate estimation
is essential in making a reasonable prediction of the landslide consequences. Obviously, vulnerability to landslides depends
not only on the characteristics of the element(s) at risk but also on the landslide intensity. This paper summarizes previous
research on vulnerability to landslides and proposes a new quantitative model for vulnerability of structures and persons
based on landslide intensity and resistance of exposed elements. In addition, an approximate function is suggested for estimating
the vulnerability of persons in structures. Different methods for estimating the vulnerability of various elements to slow
or rapid landslides are discussed. Finally, the application of the new model is illustrated through an example. 相似文献
5.
Probabilistic earthquake risk assessment using CAPRA: application to the city of Barcelona, Spain 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
Mabel C. Marulanda Martha L. Carreño Omar D. Cardona Mario G. Ordaz Alex H. Barbat 《Natural Hazards》2013,69(1):59-84
The risk evaluation model CAPRA (Comprehensive Approach to Probabilistic Risk Assessment) is a techno-scientific methodology and information platform, composed of tools for evaluating and communicating risk at various territorial levels. The model allows evaluating losses on exposed elements using probabilistic metrics, such as the loss exceedance curve, the expected annual loss and the probable maximum loss, useful for multi-hazard risk analyses. In this article, the process of probabilistic seismic risk analysis is described, explaining the main features of the CAPRA modules of hazard, vulnerability and risk estimation applied to the city of Barcelona, Spain. In addition, according to the physical risk results and the information on the socioeconomic indicators of the city, this article presents the holistic evaluation of seismic risk, which is a valuable result to facilitate the integrated risk management by the different stakeholders involved in risk reduction decision making. 相似文献
6.
Physically based dynamic run-out modelling for quantitative debris flow risk assessment: a case study in Tresenda,northern Italy 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Byron Quan Luna Jan Blahut Corrado Camera Cees van Westen Tiziana Apuani Victor Jetten Simone Sterlacchini 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2014,72(3):645-661
Quantitative landslide risk assessment requires information about the temporal, spatial and intensity probability of hazardous processes both regarding their initiation as well as their run-out. This is followed by an estimation of the physical consequences inflicted by the hazard, preferentially quantified in monetary values. For that purpose, deterministic hazard modelling has to be coupled with information about the value of the elements at risk and their vulnerability. Dynamic run-out models for debris flows are able to determine physical outputs (extension, depths, velocities, impact pressures) and to determine the zones where the elements at risk can suffer an impact. These results can then be applied for vulnerability and risk calculations. Debris flow risk has been assessed in the area of Tresenda in the Valtellina Valley (Lombardy Region, northern Italy). Three quantitative hazard scenarios for different return periods were prepared using available rainfall and geotechnical data. The numerical model FLO-2D was applied for the simulation of the debris flow propagation. The modelled hazard scenarios were consequently overlaid with the elements at risk, represented as building footprints. The expected physical damage to the buildings was estimated using vulnerability functions based on flow depth and impact pressure. A qualitative correlation between physical vulnerability and human losses was also proposed. To assess the uncertainties inherent in the analysis, six risk curves were obtained based on the maximum, average and minimum values and direct economic losses to the buildings were estimated, in the range of 0.25–7.7 million €, depending on the hazard scenario and vulnerability curve used. 相似文献
7.
Balqis M. Rehan 《Natural Hazards》2018,91(3):1039-1057
Economic damage assessment for flood risk estimation is established in many countries, but attentions have been focused on macro- or meso-scale approaches and less on micro-scale approaches. Whilst the macro- or meso-scale approaches of flood damage assessment are suitable for regional- or national-oriented studies, micro-scale approaches are more suitable for cost–benefit analysis of engineered protection measures. Furthermore, there remains lack of systematic and automated approaches to estimate economic flood damage for multiple flood scenarios for the purpose of flood risk assessment. Studies on flood risk have also been driven by the assumption of stationary characteristic of flood hazard, hence the stationary-oriented vulnerability assessment. This study proposes a novel approach to assess vulnerability and flood risk and accounts for adaptability of the approach to nonstationary conditions of flood hazard. The approach is innovative in which an automated concurrent estimation of economic flood damage for a range of flood events on the basis of a micro-scale flood risk assessment is made possible. It accounts for the heterogeneous distribution of residential buildings of a community exposed to flood hazard. The feasibility of the methodology was tested using real historical flow records and spatial information of Teddington, London. Vulnerability curves and residual risk associated with a number of alternative extents of property-level protection adoptions are estimated by the application of the proposed methodology. It is found that the methodology has the capacity to provide valuable information on vulnerability and flood risk that can be integrated in a practical decision-making process for a reliable cost–benefit analysis of flood risk reduction options. 相似文献
8.
Vulnerability, hazards and multiple risk assessment for Georgia 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
Otar Varazanashvili Nino Tsereteli Avtandil Amiranashvili Emil Tsereteli Elizbar Elizbarashvili Jemal Dolidze Lado Qaldani Manana Saluqvadze Shota Adamia Nika Arevadze Aleksandre Gventcadze 《Natural Hazards》2012,64(3):2021-2056
9.
Social vulnerability and seismic risk perception. Case study: the historic center of the Bucharest Municipality/Romania 总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1
Iuliana Armaş 《Natural Hazards》2008,47(3):397-410
Social vulnerability is as much a part of risk as building damage, hazard magnitude, and economic loss. Social vulnerability refers to the capacity of a human community exposed during the impact of a natural hazard event (in this case, an earthquake)
to resist, cope with, and recover from that impact. In the perspective of the 3rd millennium, we come to understand that the
most efficient and accessible way to reduce the pressure of natural risks is to reduce the vulnerability level of the human
communities exposed to that certain hazard. This study aims to test, in an exposed and vulnerable area, the relationship between
social vulnerability and the perception of the seismic risk. The research focuses only on the first level of social vulnerability,
defined as the ability of an individual within a household to recover from a natural hazard impact (Dwyer et al. 2004). A prevailing assumption was that social vulnerability influences the level of perception of the seismic risk, in an exposed, vulnerable area. To this end, two samples were used, different under the aspect of social vulnerability, in the context of the same residential
area. Social vulnerability was computed as a normalized composed index that includes the poverty ratio and the demographic
vulnerability ratio (depending on the age, gender, and education level indicators). The statistical processing has indicated
a significant difference in the high perception level for the two samples that were compared, in the sense that in the context
of an increased level of social vulnerability, people generally better acknowledge the seismic risk.
相似文献
| Iuliana ArmaşEmail: |
10.
Philipp Schmidt-Thom Stefan Greiving Hilkka Kallio Mark Fleischhauer Jaana Jarva 《Quaternary International》2006,150(1):103
Europe experiences different natural hazards and subsequent risks that have various effects on the development of its regions. The spatial significance of hazards can be expressed as an economic risk when combining hazard potential with vulnerability data. Two examples of European natural hazard maps on floods and earthquakes, as well as the resulting risk profiles of regions (combination of hazard potential and vulnerability) give a first impression on the spatial characters of hazards in Europe and their potential impact on further spatial development. The economic risk maps enable a view on the spatial dimension of the economic damage potential of flood and earthquakes, pointing out comparable situations across Europe with the aim to facilitate targeted responses and policies. The spatial character of a hazard is either defined by spatial effects that might occur in case of a disaster or by the possibility of spatial planning responses. The integration of the economic vulnerability of a region (regional GDP per capita, population density) leads to a classification of areas according to their economic risk or damage potential towards hazards. These synthetic risk profiles are presented as risk maps of European regions in administrative boundaries. Obtained information can be of interest for spatial planning and development strategies, e.g. economic risk profile of regions can influence the targets of investments and could thus be an important background for structural funding. 相似文献
11.
J. D. Jiménez-Perálvarez 《Landslides》2018,15(4):741-752
Landslide risk was assessed at the basin scale, in terms of specific landslide risk, in a region with limited information on landslide occurrence. Specific landslide risk was mapped by combining the landslide-hazard map and vulnerability of the elements at risk. The assessment of landslide hazard was based both on the spatial-temporal probability of landslide occurrence and on landslide intensity. In this regard, a major problem to resolve was the landslide-occurrence probability. Thus, several procedures were performed, including remote-sensing-based techniques, photointerpretation, dendrochronology, and press news. On the other hand, vulnerability was studied based empirically on the inferred relationship between the hazard class and the likely damage that the landslide would cause. In this way, vulnerability was shown in terms of expected degree of loss by using property-loss criteria. The results reveal that specific landslide risk in the area is mainly low, since just 2.26% of zone showed either a possible or a likely specific landslide risk. Buildings, irrigation structures, and main roads cover 2.6% of the study zone while representing approximately 80% of the specific landslide risk. By contrast, croplands cover almost 50% of the area but represent only 7.1% of specific landslide risk. The results indicate that, although this empirical methodology is subject to some level of uncertainty, it can provide reasonable estimates of specific landslide risk over a large area despite lacking information on landslide occurrence. 相似文献
12.
Quantitative Risk Assessment of Catastrophic Debris Flows through Numerical Simulation 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The risk assessment is not only the one of the most effective soft measures in natural hazard prevention, but also is the base of hazard risk management. On account of the specificity of various elements at risk and debris flow mechanism, the theoretical system and technical procedure of debris flow quantitative risk assessment for buildings and roads were established in the mountaineous area of Southwest China, which included three sections: ①To represent debris flow hazard quantitatively using the intensity index IDF through FLO-2D simulation; ②To build debris flow physical vulnerability curve based on the loss exceedance-probability from Qipan gully debris flow case; ③To quantify the expected loss of the important elements at risk based on their database after setting the future debris flow scenarios. The case study of Yangling catchment indicated that the responding mechanism between elements at risk and debris flow physical mechanism was described quantitatively by this quantitative risk assessment system, which can contribute to the construction planning and prevention measure making in the southwestern mountainous area. 相似文献
13.
Within the framework of recent research projects, basic tools for GIS-based seismic risk assessment technologies were developed and applied to the building stock and regional particularities of German earthquake regions. Two study areas are investigated, being comparable by the level of seismic hazard and the hazard-consistent scenario events (related to mean return periods of 475, 2475 and 10000 years). Significant differences exist with respect to the number of inhabitants, the grade and extent of urbanisation, the quality and quantity of building inventory: the case study of Schmölln in Eastern Thuringia seems to be representative for the majority of smaller towns in Germany, the case study of Cologne (Köln) stands for larger cities. Due to the similarities of hazard and scenario intensities, the considerable differences do not only require proper decisions concerning the appropriate methods and acceptable efforts, they enable conclusions about future research strategies and needs for disaster reduction management. Not least important, results can sharpen the focus of public interest. Seismic risk maps are prepared for different scenario intensities recognising the scatter and uncertainties of site-dependent ground motion and also of the applied vulnerability functions. The paper illustrates the impact of model assumptions and the step-wise refinements of input variables like site conditions, building stock or vulnerability functions on the distribution of expected building damage within the study areas. Furthermore, and in contrast to common research strategies, results support the conclusion that in the case of stronger earthquakes the damage will be of higher concentration within smaller cities like Schmölln due to the site-amplification potential and/or the increased vulnerability of the building stock. The extent of damage will be pronounced by the large number of masonry buildings for which lower vulnerability classes have to be assigned. Due to the effect of deep sedimentary layers and the composition of building types, the urban centre of Cologne will be less affected by an earthquake of comparable intensity. 相似文献
14.
Vulnerability of buildings to debris flow impact 总被引：5，自引：1，他引：4
Quantitative risk assessments (QRAs) for landslide hazards are increasingly being executed to determine an unmitigated level
of risk and compare it with risk tolerance criteria set by the local or federal jurisdiction. This approach allows urban planning
with a scientific underpinning and provides the tools for emergency preparedness. Debris-flow QRAs require estimates of the
hazard probability, spatial and temporal probability of impact (hazard assessment) and vulnerability of the elements at risk.
The vulnerability term is perhaps the most difficult to estimate confidently because (a) human death in debris flows is most
commonly associated with building damage or collapse and is thus an indirect consequence and (b) the type and scale of building
damage is very difficult to predict. To determine building damage, an intensity index (I
DF) was created as the product of maximum expected flow depth d and the square of the maximum flow velocity v (I
DF = dv
2). The I
DF surrogates impact force and thus correlates with building damage. Four classes of building damage were considered ranging
from nuisance flood/sedimentation damage to complete destruction. Sixty-six well-documented case studies in which damage,
flow depth and flow velocity were recorded or could be estimated were selected through a search of the global literature,
and I
DF was plotted on a log scale against the associated damage. As expected, the individual damage classes overlap but are distinctly
different in their respective distributions and group centroids. To apply this vulnerability model, flow velocity and flow
depth need to be estimated for a given building location and I
DF calculated. Using the existing database, a damage probability (P
DF) can then be computed. P
DF can be applied directly to estimate the likely insurance loss or associated loss of life. The model presented here should
be updated with more case studies and is therefore made openly available to international researchers who can access it at
. 相似文献
15.
Landslide vulnerability and risk assessment for multi-hazard scenarios using airborne laser scanning data (LiDAR) 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Landslide hazard, vulnerability, and risk-zoning maps are considered in the decision-making process that involves land use/land cover (LULC) planning in disaster-prone areas. The accuracy of these analyses is directly related to the quality of spatial data needed and methods employed to obtain such data. In this study, we produced a landslide inventory map that depicts 164 landslide locations using high-resolution airborne laser scanning data. The landslide inventory data were randomly divided into a training dataset: 70 % for training the models and 30 % for validation. In the initial step, a susceptibility map was developed using logistic regression approach in which weights were assigned to every conditioning factor. A high-resolution airborne laser scanning data (LiDAR) was used to derive the landslide conditioning factors for the spatial prediction of landslide hazard areas. The resultant susceptibility was validated using the area under the curve method. The validation result showed 86.22 and 84.87 % success and prediction rates, respectively. In the second stage, a landslide hazard map was produced using precipitation data for 15 years. The precipitation maps were subsequently prepared and show two main categories (two temporal probabilities) for the study area (the average for any day in a year and abnormal intensity recorded in any day for 15 years) and three return periods (15-, 10-, and 5-year periods). Hazard assessment was performed for the entire study area. In the third step, an element at risk map was prepared using LULC, which was considered in the vulnerability assessment. A vulnerability map was derived according to the following criteria: cost, time required for reconstruction, relative risk of landslide, risk to population, and general effect to certain damage. These criteria were applied only on the LULC of the study area because of lack of data on the population and building footprint and types. Finally, risk maps were produced using the derived vulnerability and hazard information. Thereafter, a risk analysis was conducted. The LULC map was cross-matched with the results of the hazard maps for the return period, and the losses were aggregated for the LULC. Then, the losses were calculated for the three return periods. The map of the risk areas may assist planners in overall landslide hazard management. 相似文献
16.
A fast GIS-based risk assessment for tephra fallout: the example of Cotopaxi volcano, Ecuador-Part II: vulnerability and risk assessment 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
In order to develop efficient strategies for risk mitigation and emergency management, planners require the assessment of both the expected hazard (frequency and magnitude) and the vulnerability of exposed elements. This paper presents a GIS-based methodology to produce qualitative to semi-qualitative thematic risk assessments for tephra fallout around explosive volcanoes, designed to operate with datasets of variable precision and resolution depending on data availability. Due to the constant increase in population density around volcanoes and to the wide dispersal of tephra from volcanic plumes, a large range of threats, such as roof collapses, damage to crops, blockage of vital lifelines and health problems, concern even remote communities. To address these issues, we have assessed the vulnerability and the risk levels for five themes relevant to tephra fallout: (1) social, (2) economic, (3) environmental, (4) physical and (5) territorial. Risk and vulnerability indices for each theme are averaged to the fourth level of administrative unit (parroquia, parish). In a companion paper, Biass and Bonadonna (this volume) present a probabilistic hazard assessment for tephra fallout at Cotopaxi volcano (Ecuador) using the advection-diffusion model TEPHRA2, which is based on field investigations and a global eruption database (Global Volcanism Program, GVP). The scope of this paper is to present a new approach to risk assessment specifically designed for tephra fallout, based on a comprehensive hazard assessment of Cotopaxi volcano. Our results show that an eruption of moderate magnitude (i.e. VEI 4) would result in the possible collapse of ??9,000 houses in the two parishes located close to the volcano. Our study also reveals a high risk on agriculture, closely linked to the economic sector, and a possible accessibility problem in case of an eruption of any size, as tephra is likely to affect the only major road running from Quito to Latacunga (Panamerican Highway). As a result, this method fits into the ongoing effort to better characterize and evaluate volcanic risk, and more specifically the risk associated with tephra fallout. Although this methodology relies on some assumptions, it can serve as a rapid and efficient starting point for further investigations of the risk level around explosive volcanoes. 相似文献
17.
Food security has drawn great attention from both researchers and practitioners in recent years. Global warming and its resultant extreme drought events have become a great challenge to crop production and food price stability. This study aimed to establish a preliminary theoretical methodology and an operational approach for assessing the physical vulnerability of two wheat varieties (“Yongliang #4” and “Wenmai #6”) to agricultural drought using Environmental Policy Integrated Climate model (EPIC). Drought hazard index was set up based on output variables of the EPIC water stress (WS), including the magnitude and duration of WS during the crop-growing period. The physical vulnerability curves of two wheat varieties to drought were calculated by the simulated drought hazard indexes and loss ratios. And the curve’s effect on drought disaster risk was defined as A, B and C sections, respectively. Our analysis results showed that (a) physical vulnerability curves varied between two wheat varieties, which were determined by genetic parameters of crops; (b) compared with spring wheat “Yongliang 4#” winter wheat “Wenmai 6#” was less vulnerable to drought under the same drought hazard intensity scenario; (c) the wheat physical vulnerability curve to drought hazard displayed a S shape, suggesting a drought intensity–dependent magnifying or reducing effect of the physical vulnerability on drought disasters; (d) the reducing effect was mainly in the low-value area of vulnerability curve, whereas the magnifying effect was in the middle-value area, and the farming-pastoral zone and the Qinling Mountain–Huaihe River zone formed important spatial division belts. 相似文献
18.
In quantitative risk analyses for natural hazards, vulnerability can be expressed as the ratio of reconstruction, replacement or reproduction expenses due to a damage caused by a certain process intensity and the original value of the element at risk exposed. To discuss the building vulnerability under debris flow events, the ratio is mostly related to debris flow inundation height, building materials and building values. Different types of buildings would resist to the impact of debris flows differently, resulting in different damage levels even under the same inundation height. After debris flow events, the damages to a building include the content loss and the structure loss, which is also variable due to the individual building conditions. This study proposes a flowchart to establish building vulnerability curves through estimating the damages to buildings after debris flow hazards. The losses of content and structure are firstly calculated separately to obtain the loss ratios with respect to original buildings. Secondly, by combining the content and structure loss ratio, the building vulnerability function is derived. In this paper, the original building content value was obtained from governmental statistic records and was based on the market price, and the structure value was received from a regional architecture office. The losses resulting from debris flow impacts were synthetically derived following field surveys. To combine the content and structure losses, a unit building with a floor area of 60?m2 was assumed. The result shows that due to a higher percentage of content value compared with the total building value, the loss ratio resulting from debris flows in Taiwan is higher compared with European studies, in particular with respect to high-frequency but low-magnitude events. The concept of obtaining building vulnerability is particularly suitable for regions where well-documented building loss records are unavailable. 相似文献
19.
Social and economic vulnerability of coastal communities to sea-level rise and extreme flooding 总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1
This paper assesses the socioeconomic consequences of extreme coastal flooding events. Wealth and income impacts associated with different social groups in coastal communities in Israel are estimated. A range of coastal flood hazard zones based on different scenarios are identified. These are superimposed on a composite social vulnerability index to highlight the spatial variation in the socioeconomic structure of those areas exposed to flooding. Economic vulnerability is captured by the exposure of wealth and income. For the former, we correlate the distribution of housing stock at risk with the socioeconomic characteristics of threatened populations. We also estimate the value of residential assets exposed under the different scenarios. For the latter, we calculate the observed change in income distribution of the population under threat of inundation. We interpret the change in income distribution as an indicator of recovery potential. 相似文献
20.
区域滑坡灾害预测预警与风险评价 总被引：16，自引：0，他引：16
区域滑坡灾害预测预警是滑坡灾害研究领域的难点和热点。过去10多年来在这方面的研究主要集中在区域降雨与地质环境的结合方面。文章总结了目前国内外滑坡灾害预测预报、预警和风险管理研究现状,认为把滑坡灾害预警预报与风险管理相结合是减灾防灾的需要,也是今后该领域研究的发展趋势。文章从区域滑坡灾害空间预测、时间预警预报的角度提出了滑坡灾害预测预报的分类和理论基础,并在此基础上,利用MapGIS软件平台进行二次开发,建立了基于WebGIS的滑坡灾害信息管理系统和实时预警发布系统。以2004年"云娜"台风期间浙江省永嘉县滑坡灾害预警预报为例,进行了滑坡危险性预测、人口易损性预测、经济易损性预测到风险预测的实例研究。 相似文献