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人工神经网络是用来模拟人脑智能特点和结构的一种模型,具有很强的非线性映射功能．把它引用到地震前兆观测数据的分析处理中,可为前兆观测更好地服务于地震分析预报开辟出一条新路,也是对人工神经网络方法应用的推广．本文分析了时间序列的可预测性,给出了用人工神经网络预测地震前兆混沌时间序列的方法,并以江宁台和徐州台SQ 型地倾斜仪观测及溧阳台体应变观测的时间序列为例,对其作了预测和处理．结果表明:用该方法处理达到的精度能满足实际工作的需要,因而该方法在今后的实际地震分析预报工作中具有重要应用价值． 相似文献
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神经网络模型在地震预报中的某些应用 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：2
本文介绍了人工神经网络模型以地震活动性指标为基础应用于地震预报的一些最新研究结果，选用多层前向神经网络模型及ＢＰ算法，其输入取不同的地震活动性指标的集合，输出为某一指定地区在未来时段内可能发生的最大地震的震级，以华北及首都圈地区为例，用多组不同类型的地震活动性指标进行学习与检验，结果表明，利用人工神经网络模型对未来时段震级预报的符合率较高，内检预报符合率可达１００％，外推预报符合率达到６０％以上。 相似文献
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本文研究了神经网络方法在基于地震活动性指标的中短期地震预报和基于非测震学前兆异常从属函数的短期地震预报中的应用。选用含一个或两个中间层的前向神经网络模型，并采用与之相适应的ＢＰ算法。以华北地区多年的地震活动性资料和首都圈及其邻近地区的短水准、地电阻率、地磁总强度、水位、水氡含量等前兆观测手段的８０余个台项的多年测资料为基础，对神经网络方法以上两方面的应用作出了实际计算、分析与检验。对一些大地震的发 相似文献
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本文提出预测地震序列类型的人工神经网络方法，并选取一组实例作为研究对象，验证了该方法的可靠性。结果表明，人工神经网络方法性能良好，可望成为地震序列类型预测的有效工具。 相似文献
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自20世纪80年代中期以来,GNSS技术在高精度地壳运动观测与构造形变研究中取得了丰硕的成果,为大地测量、地球动力学研究和防震减灾等诸多领域的业务深化和应用拓展提供了强大的技术支撑。本文在回顾中国大陆地壳形变GNSS站网发展历程的基础上,阐述该网络产出的中国大陆长期构造运动速度场、中国大陆应变率场、位移时间序列、基线时间序列和多边形应变时间序列等几类基础产品,分析这些产品在中国大陆构造运动动态趋势和地震预测分析中的应用情况以及所面临的瓶颈问题,最后展望未来GNSS在高精度地壳运动监测应用中的发展方向。以中国大陆构造环境监测网络为基础,大力推进国内海量GNSS观测数据的共享,提升GNSS多系统融合定位精度,将产出更为精细的科学产品,更好地服务于中国大陆地壳运动和地震预测分析等研究。 相似文献
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前兆观测异常数据检测方法研究 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
借鉴数据挖掘中的算法,本文设计了一种前兆时序模式表示方法,利用该方法可以快速检测数据序列中大幅突跳、阶跃等比较明显的异常数据。实际观测数据应用结果表明,该方法对于大量数据的异常检测效率很高,对前兆数据的预处理工作具有积极意义。 相似文献
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The deep learning method has made nurnerials achievements regarding anomaly detection in the field of time series. We introduce the speech production model in the field of artificial intelligence, changing the convolution layer of the general convolution neural network to the residual element structure by adding identity mapping, and expanding the receptive domain of the model by using the dilated causal convolution. Based on the dilated causal convolution network and the method of log probability density function, the anomalous events are detected according to the anomaly scores. The validity of the method is verified by the simulation data, which is applied to the actual observed data on the observation staion of Pingliang geoeletric field in Gansu Province. The results show that one month before the Wenchuan MS8.0, Lushan MS7.0 and Minxian-Zhangxian MS6.6 earthquakes, the daily cumulative error of log probability density of the predicted results in Pingliang Station suddenly decreases, which is consistent with the actual earthquake anomalies in a certain time range. After analyzing the combined factors including the spatial electromagnetic environment and the variation of micro fissures before the earthquake, we explain the possible causes of the anomalies in the geoelectric field of before the earthquake. The successful application of deep learning in observed data of the geoelectric field may behefit for improving the ultilization rate both the data and the efficiency of detection. Besides, it may provide technical support for more seismic research. 相似文献
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Accurate simulation and prediction of the dynamic behaviour of a river discharge over any time interval is essential for good watershed management. It is difficult to capture the high‐frequency characteristics of a river discharge using traditional time series linear and nonlinear model approaches. Therefore, this study developed a wavelet‐neural network (WNN) hybrid modelling approach for the predication of river discharge using monthly time series data. A discrete wavelet multiresolution method was employed to decompose the time series data of river discharge into sub‐series with low (approximation) and high (details) frequency, and these sub‐series were then used as input data for the artificial neural network (ANN). WNN models with different wavelet decomposition levels were employed to predict river discharge 48 months ahead of time. Comparison of results from the WNN models with those of the ANN models alone indicated that WNN models performed a more accurate prediction. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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GPRS技术在地震前兆台网中的应用研究 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
介绍了GPRS技术在地震前兆台网中的应用,提出了一种简便、实用的前兆组网方案,利用这套系统可以实现地震前兆台站数据的无线传输问题。 相似文献
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提出了地震前兆研究是地震预测研究的基础,其研究的对象是个案. 地震前兆研究受到的最大限制,是对个案的观测严重不足. 龙门山断裂带西南段仍然存在发生强震的危险性,应该不失时机地在那里建立密集的钻孔应变观测网. 四分量钻孔应变仪是我国发明的、 已经可以与地震仪和GPS相提并论的观测仪器. 对地震前兆研究而言,钻孔应变观测在理论和实践两方面都具有优越性. 本文认为: 钻孔应变观测点应该建在应力集中的构造部位; 应该在钻孔选点和仪器安装两方面采取措施以保证观测点建设的成功; 四分量钻孔应变观测最重要的是数据自洽; 钻孔应变观测不必追求很深; 观测点建设不必进行绝对应力测量. 相似文献
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A neural network is employed to select earthquake waves in a time history approach for structural dynamics. The neural network is a preferable alternative to an expert system because knowledge can easily be renewed. It involves a back propagation model having three layers (one input, one hidden and one output layer) and is used to avoid inappropriate earthquake input prior to practical numerical computations. Knowledge to categorize the earthquake waves is acquired through network training with earthquake response spectra and structural responses. The trained network is tested by categorizing the responses of three types of unknown structures caused by 50 previously recorded earthquakes. Comparisons are made with analogous data from the traditional site dominant period method. Results demonstrate that, unlike the latter method, a neural network is generally more successful as the number of training patterns increases. 相似文献
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A model of rainfall–runoff relationships is an essential tool in the process of evaluation of water resources projects. In this paper, we applied an artificial neural network (ANN) based model for flow prediction using the data for a catchment in a semi‐arid region in Morocco. Use of this method for non‐linear modelling has been demonstrated in several scientific fields such as biology, geology, chemistry and physics. The performance of the developed neural network‐based model was compared against multiple linear regression‐based model using the same observed data. It was found that the neural network model consistently gives superior predictions. Based on the results of this study, artificial neural network modelling appears to be a promising technique for the prediction of flow for catchments in semi‐arid regions. Accordingly, the neural network method can be applied to various hydrological systems where other models may be inappropriate. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献