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1.
V. Krishna Prasad K. V. S. Badarinath Anuradha Eaturu 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2007,89(1-2):95-107
Summary Leaf phenology describes the seasonal cycle of leaf functioning and is essential for understanding the interactions between
the biosphere, the climate and the atmosphere. In this study, we characterized the spatial patterns in phenological variations
in eight contrasting forest types in an Indian region using coarse resolution NOAA AVHRR satellite data. The onset, offset
and growing season length for different forest types has been estimated using normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI).
Further, the relationship between NDVI and climatic parameters has been assessed to determine which climatic variable (temperature
or precipitation) best explain variation in NDVI. In addition, we also assessed how quickly and over what time periods does
NDVI respond to different precipitation events. Our results suggested strong spatial variability in NDVI metrics for different
forest types. Among the eight forest types, tropical dry deciduous forests showed lowest values for summed NDVI (SNDVI), averaged
NDVI (ANDVI) and integrated NDVI (I-NDVI), while the tropical wet evergreen forests of Arunachal Pradesh had highest values.
Within the different evergreen forest types, SNDVI, ANDVI and INDVI were highest for tropical wet evergreen forests, followed
by tropical evergreen forests, tropical semi-evergreen forests and were least for tropical dry evergreen forests. Differences
in the amplitude of NDVI were quite distinct for evergreen forests compared to deciduous ones and mixed deciduous forests.
Although, all the evergreen forests studied had a similar growing season length of 270 days, the onset and offset dates were
quite different. Response of vegetative greenness to climatic variability appeared to vary with vegetation characteristics
and forest types. Linear correlations between mean monthly NDVI and temperature were found to yield negative relationships
in contrast to precipitation, which showed a significant positive response to vegetation greenness. The correlations improved
much for different forest types when the log of cumulative rainfall was correlated against mean monthly NDVI. Of the eight
forest types, the NDVI for six forest types was positively correlated with the logarithm of cumulative rainfall that was summed
for 3–4 months. Overall, this study identifies precipitation as a major control for vegetation greenness in tropical forests,
more so than temperature. 相似文献
2.
The extensive forests of Eastern Eurasia cover an area of ca. 6 million km2. The FAREAST model, a forest gap model that simulates the stand composition and dynamics of Eastern Eurasian forests under the current climate, was used to simulate the responses of the Eastern Eurasia Forests to the climate change. Two different scenarios of possible future climatic change were obtained from the IPCC (2001) report (CMIP2 and IS92a-GS) and were used as input to the FAREAST model to determine the compositional and structural sensitivity to climate changes for several locations and along montane elevation gradients. The simulation results suggest that, under the influence of the conditions in the two climate-change scenarios, the underlying forest dynamics should be quite different. Further, Eastern Eurasian forests maintain currents forest structure and biomass only within a small range of climate change. Broad-leaved deciduous trees of such genera as Fraxinus, Quercus and Tilia increase their ranges over Eastern Eurasia under the climate-change scenarios. Conifers, such as Larix and Picea, decrease sharply under climate change and the area of their distributions are reduced. The overall biomass of Pinus is not decreased over the region. While the Pinus distribution range shifts, the area associated with the range of the taxa is not changed. 相似文献
3.
Large-scale conversion of tropical forests into pastures or annual crops will likely lead to changes in the local microclimate of those regions. Larger diurnal fluctuations of surface temperature and humidity deficit, increased surface runoff during rainy periods and decreased runoff during the dry season, and decreased soil moistrue are to be expected.It is likely that evapotranspiration will be reduced because of less available radiative energy at the canopy level since grass presents a higher albedo than forests, also because of the reduced availability of soil moisture at the rooting zone primarily during the dry season. Recent results from general circulation model (GCM) simulations of Amazonian deforestation seem to suggest that the equilibrium climate for a grassy vegetation in Amazonia would be one in which regional precipitation would be significantly reduced.Global climate changes probably will occur if there is a marked change in rainfall patterns in tropical forest regions as a result of deforestation. Besides that, biomass burning of tropical forests is likely adding CO2 into the atmosphere, thus contributing to the enhanced greenhouse warming. 相似文献
4.
We added certain aspects of species-specific phenology, and of local frost regimes to a standard invididual-based patch model of forest stand dynamics, which we used to explore the possible consequences of four climate-change scenarios in eight distinct forest regions in British Columbia, Canada. According to model projections, lowland temperate coastal forests will be severely stressed because forest tree species will no longer have their winter-chilling requirements met. High-elevation coastal forests may either remain stable or decrease in productivity, while interior subalpine forests may eventually resemble those now found in the coastal mountains. Southern interior forests are likely to persist relatively unchanged, while boreal and sub-boreal forests of the northern interior may become dominated by Douglas-fir and western larch, rather than by spruce and pine as at present. The rate of change in forest composition may be very high in some cases. Changes under the four climate-change scenarios generally vary in magnitude but not in direction. This exercise illustrates that different forest types might respond to a changing climate for different reasons, and at different rates. 相似文献
5.
Response of the mean global vegetation distribution to interannual climate variability 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Michael Notaro 《Climate Dynamics》2008,30(7-8):845-854
The impact of interannual variability in temperature and precipitation on global terrestrial ecosystems is investigated using
a dynamic global vegetation model driven by gridded climate observations for the twentieth century. Contrasting simulations
are driven either by repeated mean climatology or raw climate data with interannual variability included. Interannual climate
variability reduces net global vegetation cover, particularly over semi-arid regions, and favors the expansion of grass cover
at the expense of tree cover, due to differences in growth rates, fire impacts, and interception. The area burnt by global
fires is substantially enhanced by interannual precipitation variability. The current position of the central United States’
ecotone, with forests to the east and grasslands to the west, is largely attributed to climate variability. Among woody vegetation,
climate variability supports expanded deciduous forest growth and diminished evergreen forest growth, due to difference in
bioclimatic limits, leaf longevity, interception rates, and rooting depth. These results offer insight into future ecosystem
distributions since climate models generally predict an increase in climate variability and extremes.
CCR Contribution # 941 相似文献
6.
Tree Species Composition in European Pristine Forests: Comparison of Stand Data to Model Predictions 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Franz-W. Badeck Heike Lischke Harald Bugmann Thomas Hickler Karl Hönninger Petra Lasch Manfred J. Lexer Florent Mouillot Jörg Schaber Benjamin Smith 《Climatic change》2001,51(3-4):307-347
The degree of general applicability across Europe currently achieved with several forest succession models is assessed, data needs and steps for further model development are identified and the role physiology based models can play in this process is evaluated. To this end, six forest succession models (DISCFORM, ForClim, FORSKA-M, GUESS, PICUS v1.2, SIERRA) are applied to simulate stand structure and species composition at 5 European pristine forest sites in different climatic regions. The models are initialized with site-specific soil information and driven with climate data from nearby weather stations. Predicted species composition and stand structure are compared to inventory data. Similarity and dissimilarity in the model results under current climatic conditions as well as the predicted responses to six climate change scenarios are discussed. All models produce good results in the prediction of the right tree functional types. In about half the cases, the dominating species are predicted correctly under the current climate. Where deviations occur, they often represent a shift of the species spectrum towards more drought tolerant species. Results for climate change scenarios indicate temperature driven changes in the alpine elevational vegetation belts at humid sites and a high sensitivity of forest composition and biomass of boreal and temperate deciduous forests to changes in precipitation as mediated by summer drought. Restricted generality of the models is found insofar as models originally developed for alpine conditions clearly perform better at alpine sites than at boreal sites, and vice versa. We conclude that both the models and the input data need to be improved before the models can be used for a robust evaluation of forest dynamics under climate change scenarios across Europe. Recommendations for model improvements, further model testing and the use of physiology based succession models are made. 相似文献
7.
Liu Weiguang Wang Guiling Yu Miao Chen Haishan Jiang Yelin Yang Meijian Shi Ying 《Climate Dynamics》2020,55(9-10):2725-2742
The future vegetation–climate system over East Asia, as well as its dependence on Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), is investigated using a regional climate–vegetation model driven with boundary conditions from Flexible Global Ocean–Atmosphere–Land System Model: Grid-point Version 2. Over most of the region, due to the rising CO2 concentration and climate changes, the model projects greater vegetation density (leaf area index) and gradual shifts of vegetation type from bare ground to grass or from grass to trees; the projected spatial extent of the vegetation shift increases from RCP2.6 to RCP8.5. Abrupt shifts are projected under RCP8.5 over northeast China (with grass replacing boreal needleleaf evergreen trees due to heat stress) and India (with tropical deciduous trees replacing grass due to increased water availability). The impact of vegetation feedback on future precipitation is relatively weak, while its impact on temperature is more evident, especially during DJF over northeast China and India with differing mechanisms. In northeast China, the projected forest loss induces a cooling through increased albedo, and daytime high temperature (Tmax) is influenced more than nighttime low temperature (Tmin); in India, increased vegetation cover induces an evaporative cooling that outweighs the warming effect of an albedo decrease in DJF, leading to a weaker impact on Tmax than on Tmin. Based on a single model, the qualitative aspects of these results may hold while quantitative assessment will benefit from a follow-up regional model ensemble study driven by multiple general circulation models.
相似文献8.
Some evidence of climate change in twentieth-century India 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The study of climate changes in India and search for robust evidences are issues of concern specially when it is known that
poor people are very vulnerable to climate changes. Due to the vast size of India and its complex geography, climate in this
part of the globe has large spatial and temporal variations. Important weather events affecting India are floods and droughts,
monsoon depressions and cyclones, heat waves, cold waves, prolonged fog and snowfall. Results of this comprehensive study
based on observed data and model reanalyzed fields indicate that in the last century, the atmospheric surface temperature
in India has enhanced by about 1 and 1.1°C during winter and post-monsoon months respectively. Also decrease in the minimum
temperature during summer monsoon and its increase during post-monsoon months have created a large difference of about 0.8°C
in the seasonal temperature anomalies which may bring about seasonal asymmetry and hence changes in atmospheric circulation.
Opposite phases of increase and decrease in the minimum temperatures in the southern and northern regions of India respectively
have been noticed in the interannual variability. In north India, the minimum temperature shows sharp decrease of its magnitude
between 1955 and 1972 and then sharp increase till date. But in south India, the minimum temperature has a steady increase.
The sea surface temperatures (SST) of Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal also show increasing trend. Observations indicate occurrence
of more extreme temperature events in the east coast of India in the recent past. During summer monsoon months, there is a
decreasing (increasing) trend in the frequency of depressions (low pressure areas). In the last century the frequency of occurrence
of cyclonic storms shows increasing trend in the month of November. In addition there is increase in the number of severe
cyclonic storms crossing Indian Coast. Analysis of rainfall amount during different seasons indicate decreasing tendency in
the summer monsoon rainfall over Indian landmass and increasing trend in the rainfall during pre-monsoon and post-monsoon
months. 相似文献
9.
正确认识气候变化对流域森林植被和水文的影响对于林业经营管理与流域生态修复具有重要意义。为了揭示气候与植被覆盖变化对西南亚高山区流域碳水循环过程的影响,用生物物理/动态植被模型SSiB4/TRIFFID（Simplified Simple Biosphere model version 4, coupled with the Top-down Representation of Interactive Foliage and Flora Including Dynamics model）与流域地形指数水文模型TOPMODEL（Topographic Index Model）的耦合模型（以下记为SSiB4T/TRIFFID）模拟了不同气候情景下西南亚高山区的梭磨河流域植被演替和碳水循环过程。结果表明,所有试验流域植被经历了从C3到苔原灌木最后到森林的变化;控制试验流域蒸散在流域植被主要为苔原灌木时达到最大而径流深最小;增温5 ℃并且增雨40%试验[记为T+5, (1+40%) P试验]流域蒸散在流域为森林覆盖时达到最大而径流深最小。随着温度增加,森林蒸腾、冠层截留蒸发和蒸散的增加幅度明显大于草和苔原灌木,导致森林从控制试验的增加径流量变为减小径流量。从控制试验到T+5, (1+40%) P试验,温度增加使森林净初级生产力有所增加,但对草和苔原灌木的净初级生产力影响很小;植被水分利用效率随温度增加明显减小。西南山区随着海拔高度降低（温度升高）,森林从增加径流量转变为减少径流量,植被水分利用效率也相应明显减小。西南山区气候的垂直地带性对森林—径流关系和水分利用效率的空间变化有着重要的影响。 相似文献
10.
Richard Condit 《Climatic change》1998,39(2-3):413-427
CO2 concentration is increasing, temperature is likely to rise, and precipitation patterns might change. Of these potential climatic shifts, it is precipitation that will have the most impact on tropical forests, and seasonal patterns of rainfall and drought will probably be more important than the total quantity of precipitation. Many tree species are limited in distribution by their inability to survive drought. In a 50 ha forest plot at Barro Colorado Island in Panama (BCI), nearly all tree and shrub species associated with moist microhabitats are declining in abundance due to a decline in rainfall and lengthening dry seasons. This information forms the basis for a simple, general prediction: drying trends can rapidly remove drought-sensitive species from a forest. If the drying trend continues at BCI, the invasion of drought-tolerant species would be anticipated, but computer models predict that it could take 500 or more years for tree species to invade and become established. Predicting climate-induced changes in tropical forest also requires geographic information on tree distribution relative to precipitation patterns. In central Panama, species with the most restricted ranges are those from areas with a short dry season (10–14 weeks): 26–39% of the tree species in these wet regions do not occur where it is drier. In comparison, just 11–19% of species from the drier side of Panama (18 week dry season) are restricted to the dry region. From this information, I predict that a four-week extension of the dry season could eliminate 25% of the species locally; a nine-week extension in very wet regions could cause 40% extinction. Since drier forests are more deciduous than wetter forests, satellite images that monitor deciduousness might provide a way to assess long-term forest changes caused by changes in drought patterns. I predict that increasing rainfall and shorter dry seasons would not cause major extinction in tropical forest, but that drying trends are a much greater concern. Longer dry seasons may cause considerable local extinction of tree species and rapid forest change, and they will also tend to exacerbate direct human damage, which tends to favor drought-adapted and invasive tree species in favor of moisture-demanding ones. 相似文献
11.
Most, if not all forests in the Caribbean are subject to occasional disturbances from hurricanes. If current general circulation model (GCM) predictions are correct, with doubled atmospheric CO2 (2 × CO2), the tropical Atlantic will be between 1 °C and 4 °C warmer than it is today. With such a warming, more than twice as many hurricanes per year could be expected in the Caribbean. Furthermore, Emanuael (1987) indicates that in a warmed world the destructive potential of Atlantic hurricanes could be increased by 40% to 60%. While speculative, these increases would dramatically change the disturbance regimes affecting tropical forests in the region and might alter forest structure and composition. Global warming impacts through increased hurricane damage on Caribbean forests are presented.An individual tree, gap dynamics forest ecosystem model was used to simulate the range of possible hurricane disturbance regimes which could affect the Luquillo Experimental Forest in Puerto Rico. Model storm frequency ranged from no storms at all up to one storm per year; model storm intensity varied from no damage up to 100% mortality of trees. The model does not consider the effects of changing temperature and rainfall patterns on the forest. Simulation results indicate that with the different hurricane regimes a range of forest types are possible, ranging from mature forest with large trees, to an area in which forest trees are never allowed to reach maturity. 相似文献
12.
In a changing climate, changes in rainfall variability and, in particular, extreme rainfall events are likely to be highly significant for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. It is generally accepted that sea-surface temperatures play an important role in modulating rainfall variability, thus the majority work to date has focused on these mechanisms. However past research suggests that land surface processes are also critical for rainfall variability. In particular, work has suggested that the atmosphere-land surface feedback has been important for past abrupt climate changes, such as those which occurred over the Sahara during the mid-Holocene or, more recently, the prolonged Sahelian drought. Therefore the primary aim of this work is to undertake idealised experiments using both a regional and global climate model, to test the sensitivity of rainfall variability to land surface changes over a location where such abrupt climate changes are projected to occur in the future, namely southern Africa. In one experiment, the desert conditions currently observed over southwestern Africa were extended to cover the entire subcontinent. This is based on past research which suggests a remobilisation of sand dune activity and spatial extent under various scenarios of future anthropogenic global warming. In the second experiment, savanna conditions were imposed over all of southern Africa, representing an increase in vegetation for most areas except the equatorial regions. The results suggest that a decrease in rainfall occurs in the desert run, up to 27% of total rainfall in the regional model (relative to the control), due to a reduction in available moisture, less evaporation, less vertical uplift and therefore higher near surface pressure. This result is consistent across both the regional and global model experiments. Conversely an increase in rainfall occurs in the savanna run, because of an increase in available moisture giving an increase in latent heat and therefore surface temperature, increasing vertical uplift and lowering near surface pressure. These experiments, however, are only preliminary, and form the first stage of a wider study into how the atmosphere-land surface feedback influences rainfall extremes over southern Africa in the past (when surface i.e. vegetation conditions were very different) and in the future under various scenarios of future climate change. Future work will examine how other climate models simulate the atmosphere-land surface feedback, using more realistic vegetation types based on past and future surface conditions. 相似文献
13.
Naresh Kumar Soora P. K. Aggarwal Rani Saxena Swaroopa Rani Surabhi Jain Nitin Chauhan 《Climatic change》2013,118(3-4):683-699
A simulation analysis was carried out using the InfoCrop-rice model to quantify impacts and adaptation gains, as well as to identify vulnerable regions for irrigated and rain fed rice cultivation in future climates in India. Climates in A1b, A2, B1 and B2 emission scenarios as per a global climate model (MIROC3.2.HI) and a regional climate model (PRECIS) were considered for the study. On an aggregated scale, the mean of all emission scenarios indicate that climate change is likely to reduce irrigated rice yields by ~4 % in 2020 (2010–2039), ~7 % in 2050 (2040–2069), and by ~10 % in 2080 (2070–2099) climate scenarios. On the other hand, rainfed rice yields in India are likely to be reduced by ~6 % in the 2020 scenario, but in the 2050 and 2080 scenarios they are projected to decrease only marginally (<2.5 %). However, spatial variations exist for the magnitude of the impact, with some regions likely to be affected more than others. Adaptation strategies comprising agronomical management can offset negative impacts in the near future—particularly in rainfed conditions—but in the longer run, developing suitable varieties coupled with improved and efficient crop husbandry will become essential. For irrigated rice crop, genotypic and agronomic improvements will become crucial; while for rainfed conditions, improved management and additional fertilizers will be needed. Basically climate change is likely to exhibit three types of impacts on rice crop: i) regions that are adversely affected by climate change can gain in net productivity with adaptation; ii) regions that are adversely affected will still remain vulnerable despite adaptation gains; and iii) rainfed regions (with currently low rainfall) that are likely to gain due to increase in rainfall can further benefit by adaptation. Regions falling in the vulnerable category even after suggested adaptation to climate change will require more intensive, specific and innovative adaptation options. The present analysis indicates the possibility of substantial improvement in yields with efficient utilization of inputs and adoption of improved varieties. 相似文献
14.
Climate change that results from increasing levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has the potential to increase temperature and alter rainfall patterns across the boreal forest region of Canada. Daily output from the Canadian Climate Centre coupled general circulation model (GCM) and the Hadley Centre's HadCM3 GCM provided simulated historic climate data and future climate scenarios for the forested area of the province of Ontario, Canada. These models project that in climates of increased greenhouse gases and aerosols, surface air temperatures will increase while seasonal precipitation amounts will remain relatively constant or increase slightly during the forest fire season. These projected changes in weather conditions are used to predict changes in the moisture content of forest fuel, which influences the incidence of people-caused forest fires. Poisson regression analysis methods are used to develop predictive models for the daily number of fires occurring in each of the ecoregions across the forest fire management region of Ontario. This people-caused fire prediction model, combined with GCM data, predicts the total number of people-caused fires in Ontario could increase by approximately 18% by 2020–2040 and50% by the end of the 21st century. 相似文献
15.
Modeling the Influence of Topographic Barriers on Treeline Advance at the Forest-Tundra Ecotone in Northwestern Alaska 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The response of terrestrial ecosystems to climate warming has important implications to potential feedbacks to climate. The interactions between topography, climate, and disturbance could alter recruitment patterns to reduce or offset current predicted positive feedbacks to warming at high latitudes. In northern Alaska the Brooks Range poses a complex environmental and ecological barrier to species migration. We use a spatially explicit model (ALFRESCO) to simulate the transient response of subarctic vegetation to climatic warming in the Kobuk/Noatak River Valley (200 × 400 km) in northwest Alaska. The model simulations showed that a significantly warmer (+6 °C) summer climate would cause expansion of forest through the Brooks Range onto the currently treeless North Slope only after a period of 3000–4000 yr. Substantial forest establishment on the North Slope didnot occur until temperatures warmed 9 °C, and only following a 2000 yr time lag. The long time lags between change in climate and change in vegetation indicate current global change predictions greatly over-estimate the response of vegetation to a warming climate in Alaska. In all the simulations warming caused a steady increase in the proportion of early successional deciduous forest. This would reduce the magnitude of the predicted decrease in regional albedo and the positive feedback to climate warming. Simulation of spruce forest refugia on the North Slope showed forest could survive with only a 4 °C warming and would greatly reduce the time lag of forest expansion under warmer climates. Planting of spruce on the North Slope by humans could increase the likelihood of large-scale colonization of currently treeless tundra. Together, the long time lag and deciduous forest dominance would delay the predicted positive regional feedback of vegetation change to climatic warming. These simulated changes indicate the Brooks Range would significantly constrain regional forest expansion under a warming climate, with similar implications for other regions possessing major east-west oriented mountain ranges. 相似文献
16.
Uncertainties in the regional climate models simulations of South-Asian summer monsoon and climate change 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The uncertainties in the regional climate models (RCMs) are evaluated by analyzing the driving global data of ERA40 reanalysis and ECHAM5 general circulation models, and the downscaled data of two RCMs (RegCM4 and PRECIS) over South-Asia for the present day simulation (1971–2000) of South-Asian summer monsoon. The differences between the observational datasets over South-Asia are also analyzed. The spatial and the quantitative analysis over the selected climatic regions of South-Asia for the mean climate and the inter-annual variability of temperature, precipitation and circulation show that the RCMs have systematic biases which are independent from different driving datasets and seems to come from the physics parameterization of the RCMs. The spatial gradients and topographically-induced structure of climate are generally captured and simulated values are within a few degrees of the observed values. The biases in the RCMs are not consistent with the biases in the driving fields and the models show similar spatial patterns after downscaling different global datasets. The annual cycle of temperature and rainfall is well simulated by the RCMs, however the RCMs are not able to capture the inter-annual variability. ECHAM5 is also downscaled for the future (2071–2100) climate under A1B emission scenario. The climate change signal is consistent between ECHAM5 and RCMs. There is warming over all the regions of South-Asia associated with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations and the increase in summer mean surface air temperature by the end of the century ranges from 2.5 to 5 °C, with maximum warming over north western parts of the domain and 30 % increase in rainfall over north eastern India, Bangladesh and Myanmar. 相似文献
17.
基于全球土地利用类型和覆盖度,利用生长季多年平均（1982～2015年）归一化植被指数（Normalized Difference Vegetation Index,NDVI）和气候平均态（气温、降水量）数据,讨论了全球植被格局与气候因子之间的关系,建立了两者之间的多元回归模型,并分析了植被对气温和降水气候态敏感性的特征。植被与气候因子在气候梯度上存在明显的对应关系,回归模型可较好拟合气候态NDVI的全球分布格局,拟合与观测NDVI的相关系数达0.90。其中,常绿阔叶林、混交林、常绿针叶林、落叶阔叶林、农田和木本稀树草原空间分布的拟合能力较好（r>0.8）。不同土地覆盖类型的NDVI对气温、降水气候态的空间敏感性特征不同。整体而言,植被对气温和降水的敏感性呈现反相关关系（r=-0.6）。不同土地覆盖类型对气温表现出正/负敏感性,寒带灌木对气温的敏感性最强,而农作物、草原、裸地对气温负敏感性较大;植被对降水的敏感性均表现出正敏感性,其中落叶针叶林、草原和稀树草原对降水的空间敏感性较强。 相似文献
18.
分析气候变化对动物分布的影响,对气候变化影响下保护生物多样性具有重要的意义。利用CART(classification and regression tree,分类和回归树)生态位模型,采用A1、A2、B1和B2气候变化情景,模拟分析了气候变化对我国滇金丝猴分布范围及空间格局的影响趋势。结果显示：气候变化后,滇金丝猴目前适宜分布范围将减小,新适宜及总适宜范围将扩大,在1991-2020年时段较大,从1991-2020年时段到2081-2100年时段随气候变化时间段延长而逐渐缩小,其中A1情景下变化最大,B1情景下变化最小。气候变化后,滇金丝猴目前适宜分布区东北部及南部适宜范围将缩小,西部和西北及东南部适宜范围将扩大。气候变化后,滇金丝猴目前适宜、新适宜和总适宜分布区范围与我国年均气温和年降水量变化呈负相关。多元回归分析表明,滇金丝猴目前适宜、新适宜和总适宜分布范围均随我国年均气温升高和年降水量增加而减少,其中气温变化影响比降水量变化影响大。因此,气候变化后,近期将使滇金丝猴目前分布适宜分布范围减少,新适宜分布范围将扩大,随气候变化程度增强,新适宜及总适宜分布范围都将减小。 相似文献
19.
General circulation models (GCMs) project increases in the earth’s surface air temperatures and other climate changes by the mid or late 21st century, and therefore crops such as cotton (Gossypium spp L.) will be grown in a much different environment than today. To understand the implications of climate change on cotton production in India, cotton production to the different scenarios (A2, B2 and A1B) of future climate was simulated using the simulation model Infocrop-cotton. The GCM projections showed a nearly 3.95, 3.20 and 1.85 °C rise in mean temperature of cotton growing regions of India for the A2, B2 and A1B scenarios, respectively. Simulation results using the Infocrop-cotton model indicated that seed cotton yield declined by 477 kg?ha?1 for the A2 scenario and by 268 kg?ha?1 for the B2 scenario; while it was non-significant for the A1B scenario. However, it became non-significant under elevated [CO2] levels across all the scenarios. The yield decline was higher in the northern zone over the southern zone. The impact of climate change on rainfed cotton which covers more than 60 % of the country’s total cotton production area (mostly in the central zone) and is dependent on the monsoons is likely to be minimum, possibly on account of marginal increase in rainfall levels. Results of this assessment suggest that productivity in northern India may marginally decline; while in central and southern India, productivity may either remain the same or increase. At the national level, therefore, cotton production is unlikely to change with climate change. Adaptive measures such as changes in planting time and more responsive cultivars may further boost cotton production in India. 相似文献
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Prasanta Kumar Bal Andimuthu Ramachandran Kandasamy Palanivelu Perumal Thirumurugan Rajadurai Geetha Bhaski Bhaskaran 《Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》2016,52(4):353-369
This study presents a comprehensive assessment of the possible regional climate change over India by using Providing REgional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS), a regional climate model (RCM) developed by Met Office Hadley Centre in the United Kingdom. The lateral boundary data for the simulations were taken from a sub-set of six members sampled from the Hadley Centre’s 17- member Quantified Uncertainty in Model Projections (QUMP) perturbed physics ensemble. The model was run with 25 km × 25 km resolution from the global climate model (GCM) - HadCM3Q at the emission rate of special report on emission scenarios (SRES) A1B scenarios. Based on the model performance, six member ensembles running over a period of 1970-2100 in each experiment were utilized to predict possible range of variations in the future projections for the periods 2020s (2005-2035), 2050s (2035-2065) and 2080s (2065-2095) with respect to the baseline period (1975-2005). The analyses concentrated on maximum temperature, minimum temperature and rainfall over the region. For the whole India, the projections of maximum temperature from all the six models showed an increase within the range 2.5°C to 4.4°C by end of the century with respect to the present day climate simulations. The annual rainfall projections from all the six models indicated a general increase in rainfall being within the range 15-24%. Mann-Kendall trend test was run on time series data of temperatures and rainfall for the whole India and the results from some of the ensemble members indicated significant increasing trends. Such high resolution climate change information may be useful for the researchers to study the future impacts of climate change in terms of extreme events like floods and droughts and formulate various adaptation strategies for the society to cope with future climate change. 相似文献