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1.
Traditional seismic design, like the one adopted in Eurocode 8 (EC8), is force‐based and examining a single level of seismic action. In order to provide improved control of structural damage for different levels of seismic action, the new fib Model Code 2010 (MC2010) includes a fully fledged displacement‐based and performance‐based seismic design methodology. However, the level of complexity and computational effort of the MC2010 methodology is significantly increased. Hence, the use of automated optimization techniques for obtaining cost‐effective design solutions becomes appealing if not necessary. This study employs genetic algorithms to derive and compare optimum seismic design solutions of reinforced concrete frames according to EC8 and MC2010. This is important because MC2010 is meant to serve as a basis for future seismic design codes. It is found that MC2010 drives to more cost‐effective solutions than EC8 for regions of low seismicity and better or similar costs for regions of moderate seismicity. For high‐seismicity regions, MC2010 may yield similar or increased structural costs. This depends strongly on the provisions adopted for selecting the set of ground motions. In all cases, MC2010 provides enhanced control of structural damage. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

2.
地震时间分布特征研究是进行地震预测和地震危险性分析的重要基础.以中国海域统一地震目录为基础资料,以指数分布模型、伽马分布模型、威布尔分布模型、对数正态分布模型以及布朗过程时间分布(BPT)模型为目标模型,采用极大似然法估算模型参数.根据赤池信息准则(AIC)、贝叶斯信息准则(BIC)以及K-S检验结果确定能够描述海域地...  相似文献   

3.
A seismic gap on the Anninghe fault in western Sichuan,China   总被引:10,自引:0,他引:10  
Through integrated analyses of time-varying patterns of regional seismicity, occurrence background of strong and large historical earthquakes along active faults, and temporal-spatial distribution of accu- rately relocated hypocenters of modern small earthquakes, this paper analyzes and discusses the im- plication of a 30-year-lasting seismic quiescence in the region along and surrounding the Anninghe and Zemuhe faults in western Sichuan, China. It suggests that the seismic quiescence for ML≥4.0 events has been lasting in the studied region since January, 1977, along with the formation and evaluation of a seismic gap of the second kind, the Anninghe seismic gap. The Anninghe seismic gap has the background of a seismic gap of the first kind along the Anninghe fault, and has resulted from evident fault-locking and strain-accumulating along the fault during the last 30 years. Now, two fault sections either without or with less small earthquakes exist along the Anninghe fault within the An- ninghe seismic gap. They indicate two linked and locked fault-sections, the northern Mianning section and the Mianning-Xichang section with lengths of 65 km and 75 km and elapsed time from the latest large earthquakes of 527 and 471 years, respectively. Along the Anninghe fault, characteristics of both the background of the first kind seismic gap and the seismicity patterns of the second seismic gap, as well as the hypocenter depth distribution of modern small earthquakes are comparable, respectively, to those appearing before the M=8.1 Hoh Xil earthquake of 2001 and to those emerging in the 20 years before the M=7.1 Loma Prieta, California, earthquake of 1989, suggesting that the Anninghe seismic gap is tending to become mature, and hence its mid- to long-term potential of large earthquakes should be noticeable. The probable maximum magnitudes of the potential earthquakes are estimated to be as large as 7.4 for both the two locked sections of the Anninghe fault.  相似文献   

4.
This paper discusses an analytical study that quantifies the expected earthquake‐induced losses in typical office steel frame buildings designed with perimeter special moment frames in highly seismic regions. It is shown that for seismic events associated with low probabilities of occurrence, losses due to demolition and collapse may be significantly overestimated when the expected loss computations are based on analytical models that ignore the composite beam effects and the interior gravity framing system of a steel frame building. For frequently occurring seismic events building losses are dominated by non‐structural content repairs. In this case, the choice of the analytical model representation of the steel frame building becomes less important. Losses due to demolition and collapse in steel frame buildings with special moment frames designed with strong‐column/weak‐beam ratio larger than 2.0 are reduced by a factor of two compared with those in the same frames designed with a strong‐column/weak‐beam ratio larger than 1.0 as recommended in ANSI/AISC‐341‐10. The expected annual losses (EALs) of steel frame buildings with SMFs vary from 0.38% to 0.74% over the building life expectancy. The EALs are dominated by repairs of acceleration‐sensitive non‐structural content followed by repairs of drift‐sensitive non‐structural components. It is found that the effect of strong‐column/weak‐beam ratio on EALs is negligible. This is not the case when the present value of life‐cycle costs is selected as a loss‐metric. It is advisable to employ a combination of loss‐metrics to assess the earthquake‐induced losses in steel frame buildings with special moment frames depending on the seismic performance level of interest. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

5.
研究2001年昆仑山口西地震和2008年汶川地震前的中源地震活动特征,与唐山地震前的特征进行比较,发现:3次大地震前曾发生6或7次h≥60 km的中源地震,且"大震前中源地震活跃的时间跨度T"约5年或5年多。这是大震前中源地震活动最主要的两个特征,包含了孕育大地震的一些重要信息。其他特征还有:中源地震的活动—平静交替、临近大地震前的地震平静、呈条带分布和(或)地震空区等特征,这与大震前壳内地震活动性的一些特征类似。  相似文献   

6.
刘小凤  杨立明 《地震研究》2004,27(3):209-215
通过对青藏高原北部地区31次地震的研究,确定了震前地震活动图像的中短期预测指标以及中期向短期过渡的异常判据及预测方法。研究结果表明,中强地震前普遍存在地震空区、弱震条带、前兆地震或震群、地震活动增强和平静等异常图像,所表现出的异常时间存在很大的差异。具有中短期特征的弱震空区(段)和条带一般出现在震前1~3a,平均持续时间1a,在空区解体后1~6个月发生地震。大多数前兆地震或震群活动属于短临异常,一般出现在震前几天至6个月,震级差为1.0~2.3,距离震中5~60km,空间上主要集中在祁连山地震带。地震活动增强以应力集中为主,属于短期异常特征。异常图像在时间上表现为中期阶段以孕震空区、弱震条带、地震活动增强和平静等异常,异常比较显著且不同步;短临阶段出现前兆地震和地震空区停止活动而形成的临震前的相对平静。异常图像在空间上具有较明显的分区性,与区域活动构造有一定的关系。  相似文献   

7.
Modern earthquake loss models make use of earthquake catalogs relevant to the seismic hazard assessment upon seismicity and seismotectonic analysis. The main objective of this paper is to investigate a recently compiled catalog (National Institute of Meteorology or INM catalog: 412-2011) and to generate seismic hazard maps through classical probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) and smoothed-gridded seismicity models for Tunisia. It is now established with the local earthquake bulletin that the recent seismicity of Tunisia is sparse and moderate. Therefore, efforts must be undertaken to elaborate a robust hazard analysis for risk assessment and seismic design purposes. These recommendations follow the recently published reports by the World Bank that describe the seismic risk in Tunis City as being beyond a tolerable level with an MSK intensity level of VII. Some attempts were made during the past two decades to assess the seismic hazard for Tunisia and they have mostly failed to properly investigate the historical and instrumental seismicity catalog. This limitation also exists for the key aspect of epistemic and random uncertainties impact on the final seismic hazard assessment. This study also investigates new ground motion prediction equations suitable for use in Tunisia. The methodology applied herein uses, for the first time in PSHA of Tunisia, seismicity parameters integrated in logic tree framework to capture epistemic uncertainties through three different seismic source models. It also makes use of the recently released version of OpenQuake engine; an open-source tool for seismic hazard and risk assessment developed in the framework of the Global Earthquake Model.  相似文献   

8.
A progress report on the mapping effort for construction of a peak ground acceleration (PGA) map of Slovenia for 475-year return period for rock and firm soil is presented. The methodology is similar to that recently applied in Central and Eastern United States. It is based on historical seismicity spatially smoothed to different length scales. The procedure is described by Frankel (1995). He uses the characteristic earthquake recurrence relationship and in his firt version four different seismicity models. We also use four seismicity models. But instead of characteristic earthquake recurrence, we use the doubly truncated exponential magnitude-frequency relationship; no evidence of characteristic earthquakes in Slovenia has been found yet. Three of our models are similar to Frankel's first three models. Model 1 uses spatially smoothed activity rate based on magnitude 3.7 and above events since 1880. Model 2 deals with spatially smoothed activity rate based on magnitude 5.0 abd above events since 1690. Model 3 smoothes the observed activity over the entire region; it represents a uniform seismicity zone. Frankel skipped this model in his latest version (Frankel et al. 1996). In model 4, we introduce a new approach of calculating seismic activity rate taking into account released seismic energy. The ground motion attenuation model of Pugliese and Sabetta (1989) is used for all models. PGA maps for models 1, 2, 3 and 4 have been calculated, and a weighted mean map derived from them. A map of model 1 has been compared with the corresponding source zone map; the two maps do not differ significantly. A worst-case map derived from all four models has also been produced.  相似文献   

9.
Using the layered viscoelastic medium model, this paper calculated the coulomb stress loading effect on the Lushan epicenter generated by the Wenchuan earthquake. Then combined with the rate-state friction law proposed by Dieterich J. (1994), we obtain the probability of an MW ≥ 6.0 earthquake occurring in the vicinity of Lushan. The results show that the probability of MW ≥ 6.0 earthquake of the Lushan region in 2013 is up to 18%, indicating that the stress disturbance caused by the Wenchuan earthquake accelerated the Lushan earthquake. This paper also calculates the coulomb stress accumulation on the "seismic gap" generated by the two earthquakes of Wenchuan and Lushan, and combined with the background seismicity, gives the MW>6.0 earthquake probability of the "seismic gap". Although there may be a certain error in the results because of the Dayi earthquake, selection of the medium model parameters and background seismicity, the seismic probability of the "seismic gap" is increasing. Thus, we think destructive earthquakes are still likely to occur in the "seismic gap".  相似文献   

10.
Introduction The MS=8.1 earthquake occurred in west of the Kunlun Pass on November 14, 2001. It is the greatest earthquake occurred in China since the last half of the century and is an important event in recent seismic history of China. Some specialists consider that the earthquake occurred in the area where the earthquake monitoring capability is lowest in Chinese mainland; no striking precursory seismicity was found. The study on the precursory seismicity before the earthquake has not b…  相似文献   

11.
The earthquakes of central coastal Peru occur principally in two distinct zones of shallow earthquake activity that are inland of and parallel to the axis of the Peru Trench. The interface-thrust (IT) zone includes the great thrust-fault earthquakes of 17 October 1966 and 3 October 1974. The coastal-plate interior (CPI) zone includes the great earthquake of 31 May 1970, and is located about 50 km inland of and 30 km deeper than the interface thrust zone. The occurrence of a large earthquake in one zone may not relieve elastic strain in the adjoining zone, thus complicating the application of the seismic gap concept to central coastal Peru. However, recognition of two seismic zones may facilitate detection of seismicity precursory to a large earthquake in a given zone; removal of probable CPI-zone earthquakes from plots of seismicity prior to the 1974 main shock dramatically emphasizes the high seismic activity near the rupture zone of that earthquake in the five years preceding the main shock. Other conclusions on the seismicity of coastal Peru that affect the application of the seismic gap concept to this region are: (1) Aftershocks of the great earthquakes of 1966, 1970, and 1974 occurred in spatially separated clusters. Some clusters may represent distinct small source regions triggered by the main shock rather than delimiting the total extent of main-shock rupture. The uncertainty in the interpretation of aftershock clusters results in corresponding uncertainties in estimates of stress drop and estimates of the dimensions of the seismic gap that has been filled by a major earthquake. (2) Aftershocks of the great thrust-fault earthquakes of 1966 and 1974 generally did not extend seaward as far as the Peru Trench. (3) None of the three great earthquakes produced significant teleseismic activity in the following month in the source regions of the other two earthquakes. The earthquake hypocenters that form the basis of this study were relocated using station adjustments computed by the method of joint hypocenter determination.  相似文献   

12.
焦远碧 《内陆地震》1993,7(2):106-113
对地震活动性进行层次结构分析可划分出不同的地震区带,中国大陆的地震活动可分为9个地震区带,分析各个区带的地震活动性可作出某一活跃期强震发生主体地区的判别,对某一个地震区带的地震活动进行层次结构分析可作出地震危险区预测。用震源面投影图代替点投影的震中分布图可更合理地解释一个构造带上强震的发生过程,更清楚地勾画出未来强震的孕震范围。对强震破裂区闭锁段、背景空区、孕震空区的关系用实测震例进行了解释。  相似文献   

13.
Summary An area of significant seismic quiescence is found near Oaxaca, southern Mexico. The anomalous area may be the site of a future large earthquake as many cases so far reported were. This conjecture is justified by study of past seismicity changes in the Oaxaca region. An interval of reduced seismicity, followed by a renewal of activity, preceded both the recent large events of 1965 and 1968. Those past earthquakes have ruptured the eastern and western portions of the present seismicity gap, respectively, so that the central part remaining is considered to be of the highest risk of the pending earthquake.The most probable estimates are: 7 1/2±1/4 for the magnitude and =16.5°±0.5°N, =96.5°±0.5W for the epicenter location. A firm prediction of the occurrence time is not attempted. However, a resumption of seismic activity in the Oaxaca region may precede a main shock.On leave from the Marine Science Institute, University of Texas, USA.  相似文献   

14.
A fully automated design methodology based on nonlinear response history analysis is proposed for the optimum seismic design of reinforced concrete (RC) structures. The conventional trial‐and‐error process is replaced by a structural optimization algorithm that serves as a search engine capable of locating the most efficient design in terms of cost and performance. Two variations of the proposed design methodology are introduced. The first approach treats the optimum design problem in a deterministic manner, while in the second variation the optimum design is sought in the framework of a reliability‐based optimization problem. The reliability‐based approach seems to be a more rational procedure since more meaningful design criteria that correlate better with the performance‐based design concept can be adopted. Thus, the practice of using the mean annual frequency of a limit‐state being exceeded to assess the candidate designs is compared with the use of deterministic criteria. Both formulations take into consideration the structural response for a number of limit‐states, from serviceability to collapse prevention. The proposed design procedure is specifically tailored to the design of RC structures, where a preliminary design step of generating tables of concrete sections is introduced. In order to handle the large size of the tables, the concept of multi‐database cascade optimization is implemented. The final design has to comply with the provisions of European design codes. The proposed methodology allows for a significant reduction of the direct construction cost combined with improved control of the seismic performance under earthquake loading. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

15.
刘蒲雄  陈兆恩 《地震》1997,17(2):113-125
通过多震例分析,表明大震前地震活动图像具有类似的演变形式,即空段-背景空区-增强活动-条带-平静,地震平静可以看作是中期短期过渡的地震活动性标志,从图像演变角有助于识别异常平静,并有可能把震前平静的时间尺度缩短至几个月量级。  相似文献   

16.
A mixed model is proposed to fit earthquake interevent time distribution. In this model, the whole distribution is constructed by mixing the distribution of clustered seismicity, with a suitable distribution of background seismicity. Namely, the fit is tested assuming a clustered seismicity component modeled by a non-homogeneous Poisson process and a background component modeled using different hypothetical models (exponential, gamma and Weibull). For southern California, Japan, and Turkey, the best fit is found when a Weibull distribution is implemented as a model for background seismicity. Our study uses earthquake random sampling method we introduced recently. It is performed here to account for space–time clustering of earthquakes at different distances from a given source and to increase the number of samples used to estimate earthquake interevent time distribution and its power law scaling. For Japan, the contribution of clustered pairs of events to the whole distribution is analyzed for different magnitude cutoffs, m c, and different time periods. The results show that power laws are mainly produced by the dominance of correlated pairs at small and long time ranges. In particular, both power laws, observed at short and long time ranges, can be attributed to time–space clustering revealed by the standard Gardner and Knopoff’s declustering windows.  相似文献   

17.
Special concentrically braced frames (SCBFs) are considered as one of the most economical and effective lateral force‐resisting systems in structures located in the regions of high seismicity. Steel braces in a braced frame undergo large axial deformations in tension and compression to dissipate the seismic energy. However, past studies have shown that SCBFs exhibit the soft‐story hinge mechanisms and unpredictable failure patterns under earthquake loading conditions. These inelastic responses along with the use of continuous structural sections as columns over consecutive floors induce flexural demand that is not considered in the current design practice. In this study, the evaluation of seismic performance of nine SCBFs designed as per the current practice has been carried out for three different story heights (i.e., three‐story, six‐story, and nine‐story) and three types of brace configurations (namely, chevron, split X, and single X). Three additional design techniques are also explored based on (i) the inclusion of column moments in the design; (ii) the theory of formation of plastic hinges; and (iii) the design of braces considering the forces computed at their post‐buckled stages. Nonlinear dynamic analyses of these study frames have been evaluated numerically using a computer software Perform‐3D for a suite of 40 ground motions representing the design basis earthquake and maximum considered earthquake hazard levels. Analyses results showed that the SCBFs designed as per the modified procedures achieved the desired performance objectives without the formation of soft‐story mechanism. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

18.
川滇地区是我国地震危险性较高的地区之一.本文基于对特大强震的风险性考虑,使用全球地震模型OpenQuake软件,建立了川滇地区地震危险性预测新模型.首先根据构造特征划分多个震源分区,并整理出这些震源分区内断层活动特征与滑动速率;基于震源分区和断层模型,使用GPS应变率转换成的锥形古登堡-里克特关系作为整个区域的地震积累率,并允许超过历史最大震级的特大地震的出现,结合活动断层滑动速率所积累的地震发生率,给出震源分区内断层地震源和背景地震源的地震发生率的比率分配关系;在活动断层分段上,保留了大型断裂或其主要部分,没有根据小的阶区来对断层进行详细分段,以便分配特大地震发生率;并使用地震率平滑方法分配背景地震发生率.最后在OpenQuake中加入地震动预测方程,计算出了川滇地区的PGA分布图,为区域地震危险性提供科学依据.  相似文献   

19.
宋金  蒋海昆  孟令媛  臧阳 《中国地震》2017,33(2):219-228
本文采用分层粘弹性介质模型计算了汶川地震对芦山震中产生的库仑应力加载的影响,进而结合Dieterich(1994)提出的速率状态摩擦定律给出芦山附近区域6级地震累积发震概率随时间的变化。结果显示,2013年芦山7.0级地震时其累积发震概率达18%,说明汶川地震产生的应力扰动加速了芦山地震的发生。本文还计算了汶川、芦山2次地震对其间"破裂空段"处产生的累积库仑应力扰动的影响,结合背景地震发生率,给出了"破裂空段"处6级地震累积发震概率变化。虽然计算结果可能受到大邑地震、介质模型参数的选取和背景地震发生概率等因素影响而存在一定误差,但"破裂空段"在2次强震应力加载下累积发震概率是不断增大的,因此我们认为"破裂空段"处发生中强地震的紧迫性不断增强。  相似文献   

20.
A seismic source model is presented for use in probabilistic seismic hazard analyses to be conducted for sites within the Buller–NW Nelson region of New Zealand. The application of common probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) methodology for sites in this region has been complicated by the long-held suspicion that the observed rates of seismic activity are high and not representative of long-term earthquake activity. However, recent analyses of geological, seismicity and geodetic data indicate that the extent of this anomaly may have been overestimated and that current rates of seismic activity within this region are likely to continue into the foreseeable future. Probable bounds for the most appropriate long-term rates of seismic activity are estimated after considering all available sources of constraint. These include geodetic analyses, plate-motion modelling, finite element modelling, structural geological considerations, paleoseismic information, tree-ring analyses, precarious rock information, observed seismicity and fundamental mechanics. A suite of fault sources is identified, and the observed seismicity is partitioned between these sources and a background source using Bayesian inference, and then analysed to obtain a magnitude–frequency distribution for each seismic source. The annual moment release rate for the region, resulting from the identified and characterised sources, is shown to be consistent with available constraints. Consequently, it is demonstrated that the observed seismicity in the Buller–NW Nelson region can be used to model future earthquake occurrence within the region and that standard PSHA may therefore be implemented within the region.  相似文献   

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