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David L. McCollum Volker Krey Keywan Riahi Peter Kolp Arnulf Grubler Marek Makowski Nebojsa Nakicenovic 《Climatic change》2013,119(2):479-494
This paper assesses three key energy sustainability objectives: energy security improvement, climate change mitigation, and the reduction of air pollution and its human health impacts. We explain how the common practice of narrowly focusing on singular issues ignores potentially enormous synergies, highlighting the need for a paradigm shift toward more holistic policy approaches. Our analysis of a large ensemble of alternate energy-climate futures, developed using MESSAGE, an integrated assessment model, shows that stringent climate change policy offers a strategic entry point along the path to energy sustainability in several dimensions. Concerted decarbonization efforts can lead to improved air quality, thereby reducing energy-related health impacts worldwide: upwards of 2–32 million fewer disability-adjusted life years in 2030, depending on the aggressiveness of the air pollution policies foreseen in the baseline. At the same time, low-carbon technologies and energy-efficiency improvements can help to further the energy security goals of individual countries and regions by promoting a more dependable, resilient, and diversified energy portfolio. The cost savings of these climate policy synergies are potentially enormous: $100–600 billion annually by 2030 in reduced pollution control and energy security expenditures (0.1–0.7 % of GDP). Novel aspects of this paper include an explicit quantification of the health-related co-benefits of present and future air pollution control policies; an analysis of how future constraints on regional trade could influence energy security; a detailed assessment of energy expenditures showing where financing needs to flow in order to achieve the multiple energy sustainability objectives; and a quantification of the relationships between different fulfillment levels for energy security and air pollution goals and the probability of reaching the 2 °C climate target. 相似文献
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The present research is based on the annual Reviews of Environmental Conditions and Pollution in the Russian Federation and Yearbooks of Environmental Pollution in the Russian Federation for the period of 2006-2015. The parameters and estimates of abiotic environmental component (air, surface water, and soil) and radiation conditions are generalized from the data of the national observation system of environmental conditions (a base of the national system of environmental pollution monitoring in the Russian Federation) as well as from the data of local environmental observation systems. The results of the analysis of observational data and the conclusion on the conservation of high levels of air pollution in the cities and surface water pollution in many water bodies (including the assessment of priority of existing problems) are an important element of the informational support of state control of the sources of pollutant emissions (discharges) to the environment. The given information is also used for the comprehensive assessment of the influence of unfavorable environmental factors on the population health and terrestrial and water ecosystems. Besides, information on the dynamics and actual levels of environmental pollution allows assessing the efficiency of nature protection measures taking into account the observed trends and dynamics of variations. 相似文献
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综合气象观测运行监控系统的建设提升了气象探测设备的运行保障能力。作为运行监控系统在移动端的扩展,以Sencha Touch框架为核心技术,以混合模式移动应用为应用类型,构建了综合气象观测运行监控移动应用开发平台,并在此基础上开发了天气雷达运行监控移动应用系统软件。文章重点阐述了系统框架及功能设计,讨论了系统实现的关键技术,探索了综合气象观测运行监控系统在移动端快速化改造的方法,可以为我国综合气象观测运行监控系统的建设和发展提供参考依据。 相似文献
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Humanity's transformation of the nitrogen cycle has major consequences for ecosystems, climate and human health, making it one of the key environmental issues of our time. Understanding how trends could evolve over the course of the 21st century is crucial for scientists and decision-makers from local to global scales. Scenario analysis is the primary tool for doing so, and has been applied across all major environmental issues, including nitrogen pollution. However, to date most scenario efforts addressing nitrogen flows have either taken a narrow approach, focusing on a singular impact or sector, or have not been integrated within a broader scenario framework – a missed opportunity given the multiple environmental and socio-economic impacts that nitrogen pollution exacerbates. Capitalizing on our expanding knowledge of nitrogen flows, this study introduces a framework for new nitrogen-focused narratives based on the widely used Shared Socioeconomic Pathways that include all the major nitrogen-polluting sectors (agriculture, industry, transport and wastewater). These new narratives are the first to integrate the influence of climate and other environmental pollution control policies, while also incorporating explicit nitrogen-control measures. The next step is for them to be used as model inputs to evaluate the impact of different nitrogen production, consumption and loss trajectories, and thus advance understanding of how to address environmental impacts while simultaneously meeting key development goals. This effort is an important step in assessing how humanity can return to the planetary boundary of this essential element over the coming century. 相似文献
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Education for Sustainable Development (ESD) has become a key concept to achieve global sustainable development. ESD aims at enabling people to think and act in a sustainable, future-oriented manner. For this purpose, ESD should not only equip learners with knowledge but is supposed to promote and advance the acquisition of sustainability competencies to address the challenges of the 21st century at a social, environmental, and economic level. Regarding the systematic implementation of ESD and its evidence-based management, an assessment of its outcomes is crucial. So far, however, ESD outcomes have only been partially assessed systematically. We developed a domain-specific ESD outcome indicator test (OIT) which strives to fill this gap. The test is intended to contribute towards the monitoring and further development of ESD in the school system. This article presents the procedure and the central findings of developing a model using an inductive research design. The model comprises the possible outcomes of ESD and thus functions as the basis of the OIT. It considers six thematic action domains for students as well as cognitive, attitudinal, and behavioural outcome components. The six action domains have been defined based on 15 interviews with experts from the arrays of ESD research, practice, and policy and a review of N = 195 sustainability related psychological scales. These were linked to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), so that connectivity between outcomes at the individual level and political respectively societal goals is ensured. 相似文献
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为了提高农业干旱的监测预测服务能力,减少农业干旱对社会生产生活的影响,通过对干旱信息的采集、存储、加工处理和干旱产品的制作发布等环节进行梳理与完善,构建辽宁省农业干旱监测预报业务系统,实现了对农业干旱的一体化、精细化和定量化监测和预测,实现了干旱产品的标准化、自动化制作和发布。该系统依托农业干旱监测技术、遥感干旱监测技术、农业干旱预报技术等手段,实现了观测数据的收集存储、干旱信息的展示分析和干旱产品的制作发布等功能,并形成了省、市、县一体化干旱服务体系。最终实现对干旱的全方位监测、立体化服务模式,从而提高应对干旱灾害的防灾减灾能力。该系统的业务化应用提高了农业干旱监测预测的定量化、自动化和智能化水平,提升了地面和卫星遥感干旱监测预测的业务能力。该系统构建的省市县一体化服务模式,形成了省级农业气象业务中心统一制作干旱产品,省、市、县3级同时开展精细化干旱指导服务的体系。 相似文献
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I. A. Shiklomanov V. Yu. Georgievskii Z. D. Kopaliani 《Russian Meteorology and Hydrology》2007,32(12):774-783
Scientific and methodological principles of organization and implementation of modern state monitoring of water objects, in accordance with a new Water Code of the Russian Federation, are considered with a special reference to the Kuban River basin. An integrated analysis of the modern state and efficiency of the system of observations of water objects in the Kuban River basin is performed. A concept is suggested to modify the available observational system. It includes recommendations to take into account the state of the river drainage system as an object of monitoring, organization of regime and operational monitoring, organization of a unique integrated database, implementation of a complex of scientific and methodological activities, and organizational and technical actions that would provide the maximum correspondence with the tasks and requirements of the modern state monitoring of water objects. The developments for the Kuban River can be used for other river basins and regions with intensive economic activity. 相似文献
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基于可编程逻辑控制器的测量与控制技术,设计了水文信息自动测报系统,实现对不同区域的水位与雨量采集测量,并通过GPRS无线通信模块与Inter-net实现组网,把分布在不同现场的水情数据定时传送到水文信息中心进行汇总,实现水文信息的远程测量、监视、报表打印、趋势分析与报警等功能.最后给出的实际测试结果表明了该系统的可行性及精确性. 相似文献
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This paper uses the dataset of Pollution Information Transparency Index covering 113 Chinese cities and the period of 2008–2011 to find out what contributes to different levels of environmental information disclosure across Chinese cities and the correlation between cities’ Pollution Information Transparency Indexes and local pollution. We find that cities whose mayors have longer tenures and PhD degrees are likely to release more environmental information. In addition, the higher the number of internet users and income per capita, the closer a city is to Hong Kong, and the lower a city’s unemployment rate, the greater the level of environmental disclosure is. An efficient local legal system is also found to facilitate information disclosure.We also find that in most cases, high Pollution Information Transparency Indexes are associated with lower pollutant levels and more pollution-control investment, suggesting the effectiveness of China’s environmental disclosure in pollution control. Community pressure for a better environment is shown to reinforce the role of environmental disclosure in pollution reduction. We find no evidence that environmental disclosure improves the efficacy of traditional environmental regulation in pollution control. Nevertheless, different aspects of environmental disclosure vary a lot in their effectiveness in pollution reduction and the results here indicate that inducing cities to respond to public information requests is perhaps the most effective method of pollution control in China. 相似文献
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《Climate Policy》2002,2(4):335-351
Parties negotiating the Kyoto Protocol recently agreed that Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) investments can include carbon sequestration projects in developing countries. However, guidelines for achieving the socio-economic and environmental objectives of the CDM, and other concerns with sinks projects, have yet to be elaborated. Independently of the Kyoto process, international efforts have advanced to define and certify sustainably managed forests through processes, such as that of the Forest Stewardship Council (FSC). In this paper, the FSC-US principles and criteria for sustainable forest management are evaluated in light of current concerns for guiding afforestation and reforestation projects in the CDM. It is found that the FSC criteria would help to meet some of the objectives of the Kyoto Protocol, including provisions to reduce the risk of premature carbon loss, and features that could somewhat lessen leakage of emissions outside the project area. Existing FSC monitoring and verification procedures provide some, but insufficient, overlap with expected requirements for measuring carbon stock changes. FSC principles and criteria articulate stringent guidelines for meeting environmental and social goals that reflect years of negotiations between environmental, timber, human rights and labor interests. 相似文献
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综合气象观测运行监控业务及系统升级设计 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
通过对综合气象观测运行监控业务及运行监控系统现状的分析,提出了运行监控业务的发展设想,并对运行监控系统升级做了科学的设计。结果指出,运行监控业务将成为装备保障工作的核心中枢,具有监控、指挥、调度、管理功能,应形成设备监控、维修保障、装备供应与评估业务关联互动的业务体系。运行监控系统需突破目前依赖观测资料质量检查为主要手段的技术,建立以设备自身状态信息为主,故障维修业务填报信息和观测资料检查等多元信息相互校验的技术,实现监控、维修保障、装备供应的信息联动。 相似文献
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The goals and objectives of ‘climate stabilization’ feature heavily in contemporary environmental policy and in this paper we trace the factors that have contributed to the rise of this concept and the scientific ideas behind it. In particular, we explore how the stabilization-based discourse has become dominant through developments in climate science, environmental economics and policymaking. That this discourse is tethered to contemporary policy proposals is unsurprising; but that it has remained relatively free of critical scrutiny can be associated with fears of unsettling often-tenuous political processes taking place at multiple scales. Nonetheless, we posit that the fundamental premises behind stabilization targets are badly matched to the actual problem of the intergenerational management of climate change, scientifically and politically, and destined to fail. By extension, we argue that policy proposals for climate stabilization are problematic, infeasible, and hence impede more productive policy action on climate change. There are gains associated with an expansion and reconsideration of the range of possible policy framings of the problem, which are likely to help us to more capably and dynamically achieve goals of decarbonizing and modernizing the energy system, as well as diminishing anthropogenic contributions to climate change. 相似文献
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Young stakeholders are key actors in social-ecological systems, who have the capacity to be agents of sustainability transformation but are also at high risk of exclusion in the unfolding of global change challenges. Despite the focus of sustainability on future generations, there has been little research effort aimed at understanding young actors’ roles as biosphere stewards. In this work we investigate how young stakeholders perceive and participate in the implementation of sustainability objectives in 74 Biosphere Reserves of the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization’s (UNESCO) the Man and the Biosphere (MAB) Programme across 83 countries, through participatory group workshops, individual surveys and grey literature review. We explore to what extent youth perceptions are aligned or not with current understandings of Biosphere Reserves and how young stakeholders are acting in pursuit of Biosphere Reserve objectives. We find that young stakeholders have a comprehensive understanding of the opportunities and challenges faced by environmental governance, such as resilience and adaptation to global change and the governance challenges of implementing adaptive co-management and increasing stakeholder participation. We also show that young stakeholders can be active participants in a wide range of activities that contribute to achieving conservation and development goals in their territories. They are particularly concerned with youth participation within all levels of Biosphere Reserve functioning and with the creation of sustainable livelihood opportunities that will allow future generations to remain in their native territories. Our study provides evidence of the importance of young stakeholder knowledge and perspectives as central actors in conservation and development initiatives, like Biosphere Reserves, and of the need to increase young stakeholder integration and participation within environmental governance. 相似文献
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《Climate Policy》2013,13(4):335-351
Abstract Parties negotiating the Kyoto Protocol recently agreed that Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) investments can include carbon sequestration projects in developing countries. However, guidelines for achieving the socio-economic and environmental objectives of the CDM, and other concerns with sinks projects, have yet to be elaborated. Independently of the Kyoto process, international efforts have advanced to define and certify sustainably managed forests through processes, such as that of the Forest Stewardship Council (FSC). In this paper, the FSC-US principles and criteria for sustainable forest management are evaluated in light of current concerns for guiding afforestation and reforestation projects in the CDM. It is found that the FSC criteria would help to meet some of the objectives of the Kyoto Protocol, including provisions to reduce the risk of premature carbon loss, and features that could somewhat lessen leakage of emissions outside the project area. Existing FSC monitoring and verification procedures provide some, but insufficient, overlap with expected requirements for measuring carbon stock changes. FSC principles and criteria articulate stringent guidelines for meeting environmental and social goals that reflect years of negotiations between environmental, timber, human rights and labor interests. 相似文献
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在对合肥地区污染源调查的基础上,利用CALPUFF模型模拟了合肥地区大气污染物SO2质量浓度场,通过与现场监测结果对比分析了模型的适用性,并根据模拟结果研究了不同排放源对合肥地区大气污染的贡献情况,建立了大气污染物传递矩阵;通过综合考虑城市区域的大气扩散能力、污染源贡献和大气环境质量目标等,采用线性规划模型测算了合肥市的大气环境容量. 相似文献
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采用传统的以中心控制和大集成模式单体架构为主要形式研发的数据服务系统,因其新增功能困难、版本更新周期长而导致服务体验不佳。本文介绍了基于微服务架构的气象服务支撑系统的建设工作,其主要特点是在研发过程中把系统的各功能逐一细分、原子化并逐一进行服务封装,同时根据不同的服务特点,对不同的业务板块采用不同的成熟技术,并最终进行有机组装,从而使系统在完美实现各种设计目标的前提下,进一步具备了敏捷开发、功能持续更新发布以及服务热更新等特点,有效满足了气象服务业务对数据支撑系统的性能要求和服务功能持续更新要求。 相似文献
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Given the local effects of co-pollutant emissions, the trading of carbon dioxide emissions between facilities to meet global objectives may improve or worsen local air quality and public health. To gear carbon trading toward maximum environmental co-benefits, a quantitative model based on facility-level carbon dioxide emissions, air pollution dispersion and concentration-response functions is proposed and applied to the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region to quantify potential changes of local public health caused by carbon dioxide transactions. The results show that the polluters with the highest Population Health Damage Intensity (PHDI) are medium-sized facilities, because larger facilities either employ more effective pollutant control technologies or are located farther away from densely populated areas. Using this modeling framework, key facilities, sectors and regions can be identified for maximizing the environmental co-benefits from introduction of carbon market and avoiding undesirable environmental damage. 相似文献
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Ecosystem-based management of fisheries and other transboundary natural resources require a number of organizations across jurisdictions to exchange knowledge, coordinate policy goals and engage in collaborative activities. Trust, as part of social capital, is considered a key mechanism facilitating the coordination of such inter-organizational policy networks. However, our understanding of multi-dimensional trust as a theoretical construct and an operational variable in environmental and natural resource management has remained largely untested. This paper presents an empirical assessment of trust and communication measures applied to the North American Great Lakes fisheries policy network. Using a scale-based method developed for this purpose, we quantify the prevalence of different dimensions of trust and in/formal communication in the network and their differentiated impacts on decision-making and goal consensus. Our analysis reveals that calculation-based ‘rational trust’ is important for aligning mutual goals, but relationship-based ‘affinitive trust’ is most significant for influencing decision-making. Informal communication was also found to be a strong predictor of how effectively formal communication will influence decision-making, confirming the “priming” role of informal interactions in formal inter-agency dealings. The results also show the buffering and interactive functions of these components in strengthening institutional resilience, with procedural trust undergirding the system to compensate for a lack of well-developed relationships. Overall, this study provides evidence to suggest that informal communication and multi-dimensional trust constitute a crucial element for improving collaboration and reducing conflict in the networked governance of transboundary natural resource systems. 相似文献