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1.
Information concerning a total number of 13700 instrumentally recorded earthquakes is used to study the geographical and the vertical distribution of the Earth's seismicity. From these earthquakes, which form four complete samples of data (M 7.0, 1894–1992; M 6.5, 1930–1992; M 6.0, 1953–1992; M 5.5, 1966–1992), 11511 are shallow (h 60 km), 2085 are of intermediate focal depth (61 h 300 km) and 564 are deep focus earthquakes (301 h 720 km). The parameters a and b of the frequency-magnitude relationship were calculated in a grid of equally spaced points at 1° by using the data of earthquakes located inside circles centered at each point. The radius of the circles increased from 30 km with a step of 10 km until the information for the earthquakes located inside the circle fulfil three criteria which concern the size of the sample used to compute these parameters at each point of the grid. The results are given in a qualitative way (epicenter maps) as well as in a quantitative way (mean return periods).  相似文献   

2.
In this paper we evaluate the present state of the seismic regime in Southern California using the concentration parameter of seismogenic faults (K sf ,Sobolev andZavyalov, 1981). The purpose of this work is to identify potential sites for large earthquakes during the next five or ten years. The data for this study derived from the California Institute of Technology's catalog of southern California earthquakes, and spanned the period between 1932 to June 1982. We examined events as small asM L 1.8 but used a magnitude cutoff atM L =3.3 for a detailed analysis. The size of the target earthquakes (M M ) was chosen as 5.3 and 5.8.The algorithm for calculatingK sf used here was improved over the algorithm described bySobolev andZavyalov (1981) in that it considered the seismic history of each elementary seismoactive volume. The dimensions of the elementary seismoactive volumes were 50 km×50 km and 20 km deep. We found that the mean value ofK sf within 6 months prior to the target events was 6.1±2.0 for target events withM L 5.3 and 5.41.8 for targets withM L 5.8. Seventy-three percent of the targets withM L 5.8 occurred in areas whereK sf was less than 6.1. The variance of the time between the appearance of areas with lowK sf values and the following main shocks was quite large (from a few months to ten years) so this parameter cannot be used here for accurate predictions of occurrence time.Regions where the value ofK sf was below 6.1 at the end of our data set (June, 1982) are proposed as the sites of target earthquakes during the next five to ten years. The most dangerous area is the area east of San Bernardino whereK sf values are presently between 2.9 and 3.7 and where there has been no earthquake withM L 5.3 since 1948.  相似文献   

3.
Earthquake Triggering along the Xianshuihe Fault Zone of Western Sichuan,China   总被引：19，自引：0，他引：19  
Western Sichuan is among the most seismically active regions in southwestern China and is characterized by frequent strong (M 6.5) earthquakes, mainly along the Xianshuihe fault zone. Historical and instrumental seismicity show a temporal pattern of active periods separated by inactive ones, while in space a remarkable epicenter migration has been observed. During the last active period starting in 1893, the sinistral strike–slip Xianshuihe fault of 350 km total length, was entirely broken with the epicenters of successive strong earthquakes migrating along its strike. This pattern is investigated by resolving changes of Coulomb failure function (CFF) since 1893 and hence the evolution of the stress field in the area during the last 110 years. Coulomb stress changes were calculated assuming that earthquakes can be modeled as static dislocations in an elastic halfspace, and taking into account both the coseismic slip in strong (M 6.5) earthquakes and the slow tectonic stress buildup associated with major fault segments. The stress change calculations were performed for faults of strike, dip, and rake appropriate to the strong events. We evaluate whether these stress changes brought a given strong earthquake closer to, or sent it farther from, failure. It was found that all strong earthquakes, and moreover, the majority of smaller events for which reliable fault plane solutions are available, have occurred on stress–enhanced fault segments providing a convincing case in which Coulomb stress modeling gives insight into the temporal and spatial manifestation of seismic activity. We extend the stress calculations to the year 2025 and provide an assessment for future seismic hazard by identifying the fault segments that are possible sites of future strong earthquakes.  相似文献   

4.
In the Solomon Islands and New Britain subduction zones, the largest earthquakes commonly occur as pairs with small separation in time, space and magnitude. This doublet behavior has been attributed to a pattern of fault plane heterogeneity consisting of closely spaced asperities such that the failure of one asperity triggers slip in adjacent asperities. We analyzed body waves of the January 31, 1974,M w =7.3, February 1, 1974,M w =7.4, July 20, 1975 (1437)M w =7.6 and July 20, 1975 (1945),M w =7.3 doublet events using an iterative, multiple station inversion technique to determine the spatio-temporal distribution of seismic moment release associated with these events. Although the 1974 doublet has smaller body wave moments than the 1975 events, their source histories are more complicated, lasting over 40 seconds and consisting of several subevents located near the epicentral regions. The second 1975 event is well modeled by a simple point source initiating at a depth of 15 km and rupturing an approximate 20 km region about the epicenter. The source history of the first 1975 event reveals a westerly propagating rupture, extending about 50 km from its hypocenter at a depth of 25 km. The asperities of the 1975 events are of comparable size and do not overlap one another, consistent with the asperity triggering hypothesis. The relatively large source areas and small seismic moments of the 1974 doublet events indicate failure of weaker portions of the fault plane in their epicentral regions. Variations in the roughness of the bathymetry of the subducting plate, accompanying subduction of the Woodlark Rise, may be responsible for changes in the mechanical properties of the plate interface.To understand how variations in fault plane coupling and strength affect the interplate seismicity pattern, we relocated 85 underthrusting earthquakes in the northern Solomon Islands Are since 1964. Relatively few smaller magnitude underthrusting events overlap the Solomon Islands doublet asperity regions, where fault coupling and strength are inferred to be the greatest. However, these asperity regions have been the sites of several previous earthquakes withM s 7.0. The source regions of the 1974 doublet events, which we infer to be mechanically weak, contain many smaller magnitude events but have not generated any otherM s 7.0 earthquakes in the historic past. The central portion of the northern Solomon Islands Arc between the two largest doublet events in 1971 (studied in detail bySchwartz et al., 1989a) and 1975 contains the greatest number of smaller magnitude underthrusting earthquakes. The location of this small region sandwiched between two strongly coupled portions of the plate interface suggest that it may be the site of the next large northern Solomon Islands earthquake. However, this region has experienced no known earthquakes withM s 7.0 and may represent a relatively aseismic portion of the subduction zone.  相似文献   

5.
Result of the algorithm of earthquake prediction, published in 1982, is examined in this paper. The algorithm is based on the hypothesis of long-range interaction between strong and moderate earthquakes in a region. It has been applied to the prediction of earthquakes withM6.4 in Southern California for the time interval 1932–1979. The retrospective results were as follows: 9 out of 10 strong earthquakes were predicted with average spatial accuracy of 58 km and average delay time (the time interval between a strong earthquake and its best precursor) 9.4 years varying from 0.8 to 27.9 years. During the time interval following the period studied in that publication, namely in 1980–1988, four earthquakes occurred in the region which had a magnitude ofM6.4 at least in one of the catalogs: Caltech or NOAA. Three earthquakes—Coalinga of May, 1983, Chalfant Valley of July, 1985 and Superstition Hills of November, 1987—were successfully predicted by the published algorithm.The missed event is a couple of two Mammoth Lake earthquakes of May, 1980 which we consider as one event due to their time-space closeness. This event occurred near the northern boundary of the region, and it also would have been predicted if we had moved the northern boundary from 38°N to the 39°N; the precision of the prediction in this case would be 30 km.The average area declared by the algorithm as the area of increased probability of strong earthquake, e.g., the area within 111-km distance of all long-range aftershocks currently present on the map of the region during 1980–1988 is equal to 47% of the total area of the region if the latter is measured in accordance with the density distribution of earthquakes in California, approximated by the catalog of earthquakes withM5. In geometrical terms it is approximately equal to 17% of the total area.Thus the result of the real time test shows a 1.6 times increase of the occurrence ofC-events in the alarmed area relative to the normal rate of seismicity. Due to the small size of the sample, it is of course, beyond the statistically significant value. We adjust the parameters of the algorithm in accordance with the new material and publish them here for further real-time testing.  相似文献   

6.
The Aftershock sequence of Chamoli earthquake (M w 6.4) of 29 March 1999 is analyzed to study the fractal structure in space, time and magnitude distribution. The b value is found to be 0.63 less than which is usually observed worldwide and in the Himalayas. This indicates that the numbers of smaller earthquakes are relatively less than the larger ones. The spatial correlation is 1.64, indicating that events are approaching a two-dimensional region meaning that the aftershocks are uniformly distributed along the trend of the aftershock zone. Temporal correlation is 0.86 for aftershocks of M 1, indicating a nearly continuous aftershock activity. However, it is 0.5 for aftershocks of M 1.75, indicating a non continuous aftershock activity. From the assessment of slip on different faults it is inferred that 70% displacement is accommodated on the primary fault and the remainder on secondary faults.  相似文献   

7.
The high likelihood of a gap-filling thrust earthquake in the Alaska subduction zone within this decade is indicated by two independent methods: analysis of historic earthquake recurrence data and time-to-failure analysis applied to recent decades of instrumental data. Recent (May 1993) earthquake activity in the Shumagin Islands gap is consistent with previous projections of increases in seismic release, indicating that this segment, along with the Alaska Peninsula segment, is approaching failure. Based on this pattern of accelerating seismic release, we project the occurrence of one or moreM7.3 earthquakes in the Shumagin-Alaska Peninsula region during 1994–1996. Different segments of the Alaska-Aleutian seismic zone behave differently in the decade or two preceding great earthquakes, some showing acceleration of seismic release (type A zones), while others show deceleration (type D zones). The largest Alaska-Aleutian earthquakes—in 1957, 1964, and 1965—originated in zones that exhibit type D behavior. Type A zones currently showing accelerating release are the Shumagin, Alaska Peninsula, Delarof, and Kommandorski segments. Time-to-failure analysis suggests that the large earthquakes could occur in these latter zones within the next few years.  相似文献   

8.
We review earthquake distributions associated with hydrocarbon fields in the context of pore pressure diffusion models, poroelastic stress transfer and isostasy theory. These three mechanisms trigger or induce seismic instabilities at both local scale (D5 km) and at regional scale (D20 km). The modeled changes in stress are small (1 MPa), whatever the tectonic setting. Each mechanism corresponds to different production processes. (1) Local hydraulic fracturing due to fluid injection induces seismic-slip on cracks (M L3) within the injected reservoir through decreasing the effective stress. (2) Pure fluid withdrawal causes pore pressure to decrease within the reservoir. It triggers adjustments of the geological structure to perturbations related to the reservoir response to depletion. Poroelastic mechanisms transfer this stress change from the reservoir to the surrounding levels whereM L5 seismic instabilities occur either above or below the reservoir. (3) Massive hydrocarbon recovery induces crustal readjustments due to the removal of load from the upper crust. It can induce larger earthquakes (M L6) at greater distance from the hydrocarbon fields than the two other mechanisms.Due to the mechanical properties of the shallow rock matrices involved, seismic slip triggered either by mechanism (1) or (2), is a second-order process of the main elastoplastic deformation. for a minimum of 80% of commercially productive basins, most of the local deformation is reported as aseismic, i.e., there is no evidence forM L3 earthquakes. Nevertheless, the induced stresses vary as a function of time in a manner that depends on the hydraulic diffusivity (i.e., permeability) of the reservoir and surrounding rocks. Because small earthquakes (M L3) indicate changes in stress and pore pressure, monitoring of seismicity is a means of assessingin situ reservoir behavior.The less constrained seismic response to hydrocarbon recovery is the possible connection between local fluid manipulations, triggered earthquakes and major regional earthquakes. Positive feedback mechanisms suggest that the region of seismic hazard changes is much larger than the area where hydrocarbons are extracted. These observations and models testify that fluid movement and pore pressure changes (increase or decrease) play important roles in the mechanics of earthquakes and in the triggering of natural earthquakes.  相似文献   

9.
The most complete and reliable data of strong (M s6.5), shallow (h<70 km) earthquakes which occurred in the inner Aegean seismic zone have been utilized to describe its seismicity time variation during 1800–1986 by two independent statistical models. The first is a sequentially stationary model of seismicity rates which shows that intervals of low seismicity rate, lasting for some 37 years, alternate with high rate intervals of 8–12 years duration. The second model is a statistical model according which seismic energy released within 5-year time windows approximates a harmonic curve within a period of about 50 years. This model is in agreement with the notion that the time series of strong earthquake occurrences in the inner Aegean seismic zone consists of a random (shocks withM s=6.5–6.8) and a nonrandom component (M s6.9). Maxima and minima of the harmonic curve coincide with the high and low rate intervals, respectively. A model of regional stationary accumulation of thermal stresses along certain seismic belts and their cyclic relaxation may explain this periodicity.  相似文献   

10.
A re-assessment of the historic seismicity of the central sector of the Colombian Eastern Cordillera (EC) is made by revision of bibliographic sources, by calibration with modern instrumental earthquakes, and by interpretations in terms of current knowledge of the tectonics and seismicity of the region. Throughout the process we have derived an equation to estimate Mw for shallow crustal earthquakes in Colombia using the length of isoseismal VIII, LVIII:
We also derived an equation to evaluate Mw for Colombian crustal earthquakes using the rupture length, L, estimated generally from the aftershock distribution of strong earthquakes:
We calculated average attenuation parameters for intermediate depth and shallow earthquakes that may be used, combined with other observations, to estimate the focal depth of historical events. Our final picture shows three distinct regions of the Colombian Eastern Cordillera (EC) where historical earthquakes are distributed. (a) The southern sector, from the Páramo de Sumapaz down to the Colombian Massif where the largest crustal earthquakes have occurred (1827, M 7 3/4; 1967, Mw = 7.0). (b) The central sector, between the Páramo de Sumapaz and Tunja with moderate to large earthquakes associated to the reverse faults on the piedmonts (the 1805 earthquake, M 6 3/4, on the western flank, and the 1743, 1923 and 1995 with M 6 1/2, 6 3/4, and 6.5, respectively, on the eastern flank). (c) The northern sector, to the north of Tunja, which is characterized by recurrent earthquakes probably associated with major reverse faults in the axial zone (e.g., 1646, I0 = VIII; 1724, M 6 3/4; 1755, I0 VIII; and 1928, M 5 3/4). Two events appear to be related to the axial faults to the south of Bogotá: those in 1644 (M 6) and 1917 (M = 7.1). The 1785 earthquake might have been an intraplate event in the subducting plate under the EC. Events in 1616 and 1826, which caused damage along the axial zone of the Cordillera near Bogotá, have no historical records precise enough to allow the estimation of their location and size, but their epicentres are probably not farther than some tens of kilometers from Bogotá.  相似文献   

11.
Some comparisons between mining-induced and laboratory earthquakes   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  
Although laboratory stick-slip friction experiments have long been regarded as analogs to natural crustal earthquakes, the potential use of laboratory results for understanding the earthquake source mechanism has not been fully exploited because of essential difficulties in relating seismographic data to measurements made in the controlled laboratory environment. Mining-induced earthquakes, however, provide a means of calibrating the seismic data in terms of laboratory results because, in contrast to natural earthquakes, the causative forces as well as the hypocentral conditions are known. A comparison of stick-slip friction events in a large granite sample with mining-induced earthquakes in South Africa and Canada indicates both similarities and differences between the two phenomena. The physics of unstable fault slip appears to be largely the same for both types of events. For example, both laboratory and mining-induced earthquakes have very low seismic efficiencies where a is the apparent stress and is the average stress acting on the fault plane to cause slip; nearly all of the energy released by faulting is consumed in overcoming friction. In more detail, the mining-induced earthquakes differ from the laboratory events in the behavior of as a function of seismic momentM 0. Whereas for the laboratory events 0.06 independent ofM 0, depends quite strongly onM 0 for each set of induced earthquakes, with 0.06 serving, apparently, as an upper bound. It seems most likely that this observed scaling difference is due to variations in slip distribution over the fault plane. In the laboratory, a stick-slip event entails homogeneous slip over a fault of fixed area. For each set of induced earthquakes, the fault area appears to be approximately fixed but the slip is inhomogeneous due presumably to barriers (zones of no slip) distributed over the fault plane; at constant , larger events correspond to larger a as a consequence of fewer barriers to slip. If the inequality a / 0.06 has general validity, then measurements of a =µE a /M 0, where is the modulus of rigidity andE a is the seismically-radiated energy, can be used to infer the absolute level of deviatoric stress at the hypocenter.  相似文献   

12.
Barriers and asperities along the Japan trench east of Tohoku (north-eastern Honshu) are outlined by investigating the distribution of source areas of earthquakes withM6 in the time period 1926 to 1981. The earthquakes were grouped into three magnitude ranges: A: 6.0M6.4, B: 6.5M7.0 and C: 7.1M8.1.The following feature is found to be common to all three groups: Either the source areas do not substantially overlap, or they superpose almost perfectly. Only a very small number of events show partial overlapping of source areas. The events of group A tend to align along several NW-SE oriented zones with distinct interspaces. These zones do not follow the regional stress field but show excellent correlation with the direction perpendicular to the magnetic anomaly lineations of the ocean floor in this area. The events of group B and C generally fill in the spatial gaps of group A. In terms of the barrier model this can be explained by barriers of varying strength through which the fracture process of smaller magnitude events does not propagate and that of larger events is not inhibited. The direction of the group A barriers suggests that they have been developed at the time of creation of the oceanic lithosphere and possibly relate to ancient transform faults now buried by sediments. Since the accuracy of epicenter locations is crucial for this kind of investigation, 45 events between 1963 and 1979 have been relocated by the joint epicenter determination method.Contribution No. 456, Institut fur Geophysik, ETHZ.  相似文献   

13.
A complete catalog of aftershock sequences is provided for main earthquakes with ML 5.0, which occurred in the area of Greece and surrounding regions the last twenty-seven years. The Monthly Bulletins of the Institute of Geodynamics (National Observatory of Athens) have been used as data source. In order to get a homogeneous catalog, several selection criteria have been applied and hence a catalog of 44 aftershock sequences is compiled. The relations between the duration of the sequence, the number of aftershocks, the magnitude of the largest aftershock and its delay time from the main shock as well as the subsurface rupture length versus the magnitude of the main shock are calculated. The results show that linearity exists between the subsurface rupture length and the magnitude of the main shock independent of the slip type, as well as between the magnitude of the main shock (M) and its largest aftershock (Ma). The mean difference M–Ma is almost one unit. In the 40% of the analyzed sequences, the largest aftershock occurred within one day after the main shock.The fact that the aftershock sequences show the same behavior for earthquakes that occur in the same region supports the theory that the spatial and temporal characteristics are strongly related to the stress distribution of the fault area.  相似文献   

14.
A shallow earthquake ofM S=6.2 occurred in the southern part of the Peloponnesus, 12 km north of the port of the city of Kalamata, which caused considerable damage. The fault plane solution of the main shock, geological data and field observations, as well as the distribution of foci of aftershocks, indicate that the seismic fault is a listric normal one trending NNE-SSW and dipping to WNW. The surface ruptures caused by the earthquake coincide with the trace of a neotectonic fault, which is located 2–3 km east of the city of Kalamata and which is related to the formation of Messiniakos gulf during the Pliocene-Quaternary tectonics. Field observations indicate that the earthquake is due to the reactivation of the same fault.A three-days aftershock study in the area, with portable seismographs, recorded many aftershocks of which 39 withM S1.7 were very well located. The distribution of aftershocks forms two clusters, one near the epicenter of the main shock in the northern part of the seismogenic volume, and the other near the epicenter of the largest aftershock (M S=5.4) in the southern part of this volume. The central part of the area lacks aftershocks, which probably indicates that this is the part of the fault which slipped smoothly during the earthquake.  相似文献   

15.
The Stone Canyon earthquake sequence started during August 1982 and lasted for about four months. It contained four mainshocks withM L 4, each with an aftershock zone about 4 km long. These mainshocks, progressing from southeast to northwest, ruptured a segment of the fault approximately 20 km long leaving two gaps, which were later filled by theM L =4.6 mainshocks of January 14, and May 31, 1986. The equivalent magnitude of the sequence isM L =5.0.Precursory seismic quiescence could be identified in: (1) the northernmost 10 km of the aftershock zone which contained three of the mainshocks; and (2) the southern gap in the aftershock zone. The fault segment containing the first mainshock and its aftershocks did not show quiescence. This pattern of precursory quiescence is very similar to two cases in Hawaii where the rupture initiation points of the mainshocks (M S =7.2 and 6.6, respectively) were located in volumes of constant seismicity rate, surrounded by volumes with pronounced precursory quiescence.The precursory quiescence before the August 1982 Stone Canyon earthquakes lasted for 76 weeks, amounted to a reduction in rate of about 60%, and could be recognized without any false alarms. That is, the anomaly was unique within the 60 km study segment of the fault and in the years 1975 through August 1982. Eighteen foreshocks occurred between July 27 and August 7, 1982. We conclude that the August 1982 mainshocks could have been predicted, based on seismic quiescence and foreshocks.  相似文献   

16.
The paper presents the current state of magnitude estimation for Koyna earthquakes exceeding magnitude 3.0. We estimate coda duration magnitude from analogue seismograms recorded on the short period vertical (SPZ) seismometer at Hyderabad seismic observatory HYB and determine moment magnitude using very broad-band (VBB) data from the Geoscope station (HYB)and short period digital data from the local seismic network of NationalGeophysical Research Institute (NGRI) around the Koyna and Warna reservoirs.Firstly, the seismograms of 97 Koyna earthquakes exceeding magnitude 4.0 havebeen used to establish a new empirical coda duration magnitude scale which includes the higher order terms of log10, where is the coda length in seconds. Four background noise levels (1, 2, 6 and 10 mm) areconsidered to estimate the coda duration. We found that the duration magnitudes for 1 mm background level are more stable than those for 2, 6 and 10 mm. The new coda duration magnitude (Mdnew) scale, for 1 mmlevel, is:Mdnew = –0.594 + 2.04 log10 – 0.0435 (log10)2The estimated Mdnew are compatible with the reported MS values of the NGRI observatory and the mb values of the United States Geological Survey (USGS). These magnitudes can be obtained within the standard deviation of ± 0.26 units of MS (NGRI). A new relatively homogeneous catalog for Koyna earthquakes of Mdnew 4.0 is obtained. The momentmagnitudes for 34 Koyna-Warna events of Mdnew ranging from 3.0 to 5.4 have been estimated using two techniques. The first utilizes amplitudes of band-pass filtered (between 15 and 30 sec) velocity traces of moderate Koyna-Warna earthquakes of MW} 4.4 to 5.4, we abbreviate the magnitude using MA. The second is based on the S-wave spectrum of short period seismograms of local earthquakes (MW < 3.8). Moment magnitudes estimated by spectral analysis mainly depend on the estimation of event's long-period spectral level and appears to saturate for moderate Koyna-Warnaearthquakes (MW > 3.8). We recommend the use of both techniques whenever possible. The estimated moment magnitudes and Mdnew show an almost linear relationship with a standard deviation of ± 0.05.  相似文献   

17.
Using original seismograph records and bulletin data we re-determined theorigin time, location, seismic moment (M0) and magnitudes(MS and Mw) for four earthquakes in the beginning of the20th century. These are two strong earthquakes April 4, 1904 nearKrupnik, Bulgaria (Mw = 6.8, MS = 7.2 respectively), the April 231909 earthquake near Benavente, Portugal (MS = 6.3), and the June14, 1913 earthquake near Gorna Orjahovitza, Bulgaria (MS = 6.3).Twenty-nine traces from original records have been analysed, a largenumber of original station bulletins have been consulted and a consistentmethodology for analysing these early 20th century instrumentalinformation is presented.In spite of a thorough effort in re-assembling and quality control of theoriginal data, large inaccuracies remain in the improved instrumentalepicentre locations and origin times. The seismic moment estimates weobtained (2.3 1018 M0 3.9 1019Nm) are the first ever determined for these events. The magnitudeestimates (6.3 MS 7.2 and 6.2 Mw 7.0) are robust and systematically lower than most of previousestimates for all earthquakes (Gutenberg and Richter, 1954; Christoskovand Grigorova, 1968; Karnik, 1969). For the largest Krupnik event ourestimates agree with those of Abe and Noguchi (1983b) and Pacheco andSykes (1992). The studied earthquakes all occur in moderately seismicactive regions, therefore our results may have significant consequences forhazard estimates in those regions.  相似文献   

18.
We analyzed the broadband body waves of the 1992 Nicaragua earthquake to determine the nature of rupture. The rupture propagation was represented by the distribution of point sources with moment-rate functions at 9 grid points with uniform spacing of 20 km along the fault strike. The moment-rate functions were then parameterized, and the parameters were determined with the least squares method with some constraints. The centroid times of the individual moment-rate functions indicate slow and smooth rupture propagation at a velocity of 1.5 km/s toward NW and 1.0 km/s toward SE. Including a small initial break which precedes the main rupture by about 10 s, we obtained a total source duration of 110 s. The total seismic moment isM o =3.4×1020 Nm, which is consistent with the value determined from long-period surface waves,M o =3.7×1020 Nm. The average rise time of dislocation is determined to be 10 s. The major moment release occurred along a fault length of 160 km. With the assumption of a fault widthW=50 km, we obtained the dislocationD=1.3 m. From andD the dislocation velocity isD=D/0.1 m/s, significantly smaller than the typical value for ordinary earthquakes. The stress drop =1.1 MPa is also less than the typical value for subduction zone earthquakes by a factor of 2–3. On the other hand, the apparent stress defined by 2E s /M o , where andE s are respectively the rigidity and the seismic wave energy, is 0.037 MPa, more than an order of magnitude smaller than . The Nicaragua tsunami earthquake is characterized by the following three properties: 1) slow rupture propagation; 2) smooth rupture; 3) slow dislocation motion.  相似文献   

19.
Spectral parameters have been estimated for 214 Petatlan aftershocks recorded at stations between Petatlan and Mexico City and between Petatlan and Acapulco. The spectral parameters were used to obtain empirical relations for the estimation of seismic moment from coda length and fromM L . Stress drops, using Brune's model, were calculated for these aftershocks. Six events with large stress drop are located within a previously suggested asperity, and seven more suggest a boundary zone at the intersection of the Petatlan and Zihuatanejo aftershock rupture volumes. Stress drops increase with increasing seismic moment up to 1020 dyne-cm but appear to be constant at greater moment values. The peak horizontal velocity times distance of aftershocks recorded near the coast and between the coast and Mexico City (30 to 270 km away), scales linearly with seismic moment, and predicts well the peak horizontal values of large (M s 7.0) coastal thrust events recorded on rock sites at Mexico City. Peak horizontal velocity is a straightforward measurement, thus this relation allows us to evaluate expected ground motion between the Pacific coast and Mexico City from the seismic moment of subduction related earthquakes along the coast.  相似文献   

20.
The Bayesian extreme-value distribution of earthquake occurrences has been adopted to estimate the seismic hazard in some seismogenic zones in Greece and surrounding regions. Seismic moment, slip rate, earthquake recurrence rate and magnitude were considered as basic parameters for computing the prior estimates of the seismicity. These estimates are then updated in terms of Bayes' theorem and historical estimates of seismicity associated with each zone.High probabilities for earthquakes withM6.0 have been obtained for the northwestern part of Greece as well as for the southwestern part of the Hellenic arc.  相似文献   

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