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1.
Solar Radiation Climatology of Alaska   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  
Summary There are only six locations in Alaska for which global radiation data of more than a year in duration are available. This is an extremely sparse coverage for a state which covers 1.5×10&6 km2 and stretches over at least three climatic zones. Cloud observations are, however, available from 18 stations. We used fractional cloud cover and cloud type data to model the global radiation and thus obtain a more complete radiation coverage for Alaska. This extended data set allowed an analysis of geographic and seasonal trends. A simple 1-layer model based on Haurwitz’s semi-empirical approach, allowing for changes in cloud type and fractional coverage, was developed. The model predicts the annual global radiation fluxes to within 2–11% of the observed values. Estimated monthly mean values gave an average accuracy within about 6% of the measurements. The estimates agree well with the observations during the first four months of the year but less so for the last four. Changing surface albedo might explain this deviation. Previously, the 1993 National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB) from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) modeled global radiation data for 16 Alaskan stations. Although more complete and complex, the NREL model requires a larger number of input parameters, which are not available for Alaska. Hence, we believe that our model, which is based on cloud-radiation relationship and is specifically tuned to Alaskan conditions, produces better results for this region. Annual global solar radiation flux measurements are compared with results from global coverage models based on the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) data. Contour plots of seasonal and mean annual spatial distribution of global radiation for Alaska are presented and discussed in the context of their climatic and geographic settings. Received July 16, 1997 Revised May 18,1998  相似文献   

2.
Summary Radiometric ground truth data from seven Norwegian stations (58–64° N), and from five other European stations (38–61° N), are compared to satellite-derived data in the present paper. Hourly global irradiance at ground level is estimated by the Heliosat procedure from the “visible” channel of the geostationary satellite METEOSAT. With increasing latitude this satelllite sees the earth’s surface at an increasingly unfavourable angle. Nevertheless, in this paper, global irradiance estimates reproduce high latitude ground truth data with negligible Mean Bias Deviations (MBD) and only minor deviations regarding frequency distributions. Moreover, the Root Mean Square Deviations (RMSD) are comparable to those typically seen between ground truth stations some 20–30 km apart. Using a number of auxiliary models, a multiplicity of ground level solar radiation data is obtained from satellite-derived global irradiance data, and made available at the SATEL-LIGHT www server. The accuracy of the half-hourly data thus derived from Heliosat global irradiances, using models for diffuse fraction, luminous efficacy and slope/horizontal ratios, is successfully verified against ground truth data. Received August 31, 2000/Revised January 31, 2001  相似文献   

3.
Summary Relationships between photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and solar radiation (SR) and between diffuse radiation and global radiation at Bloemfontein, South Africa were investigated. The ratio of PAR to SR (PAR/SR) has been reported from many places in the northern hemisphere, but there were not many PAR/SR measurements documented from the southern hemisphere, including the study region. Based on the present observations, mean PAR/SR in the region (0.48) was not exceptionally different from other reported data (0.45–0.50). The effects of sky condition on PAR/SR were also investigated and confirmed the previous findings. PAR/SR increased as the clearness index (KT=ratio of global to extraterrestrial SR) decreased, as sky conditions varied from clear to cloudy. Thus, PAR/SR can be a simple function of the clearness index (the global PAR model). In this study, PAR/SR was explained by a quadratic function of KT. For the relationship between diffuse and global radiation, a simple linear threshold diffuse PAR model, as a linear function of KT, was proposed for the study region using long-term data of diffuse and global SR. Using the previous findings on the relationship between the ratio of diffuse to global SR (KSR) and the ratio of diffuse to global PAR (KPAR), at high KT, KPAR can be estimated as 30% higher than KSR, while at low KTKPAR is equivalent to KSR.  相似文献   

4.
武辉芹  时珉  赵增保  尹瑞 《气象科技》2020,48(5):752-757
太阳辐照度与光伏电站发电功率密切相关,其预报的准确性直接影响发电功率预报的准确性。根据光伏电站太阳辐照度实况、气象站实况、WRF(Weather Research and Forecast Model)模式辐照度预报、EC细网格数值预报以及太阳理论辐照度,利用逐步回归法开展太阳辐照度预报订正研究,得到以下结论:①太阳辐照度实况与太阳理论辐照度的比值与EC细网格数值预报中气象要素的相关性优于太阳辐照度实况与气象要素的相关性;②不同时刻影响太阳辐照度的气象因子存在差异,通过逐步回归法建立不同时刻太阳辐照度预报模型;③在非晴天情况下,回归预报辐照度相对均方根误差比WRF模式预报辐照度降低10%左右,减小了辐照度预报误差。该研究成果在光伏电站的新能源数值预报服务中有一定的应用价值。  相似文献   

5.
 The horizontal and vertical structure of the 3–5-day and 6–9-day easterly waves over West Africa and tropical Atlantic are investigated. NCEP/NCAR reanalyses are used for the period 1979–1995 to produce a 17-year climatology of both 3–5-day and 6–9-day easterly waves. Composite patterns of convection, wind, temperature and vertical velocity are analysed with respect to the following: the modulation by 3–5-day and 6–9-day wave regimes; the contrasts between the ITCZ (5°N–10°N) and the Sahelo-Saharan band (15°N–20°N); the difference between land and ocean, and seasonal variations. Similarities and differences in the characteristics of the two wave regimes are identified. Received: 18 August 1999 / Accepted: 14 March 2001  相似文献   

6.
Summary The qualitative agreement of two climate models, HADCM2 and ECHAM3, on the response of surface climate to anthropogenic climate forcing in the period 2020 – 2049 is studied. Special attention is paid to the role of internal climate variability as a source of intermodel disagreement. After illustrating the methods in an intermodel comparison of simulated changes in June–August mean precipitation, some global statistics are presented. Excluding surface air temperature, the four-season mean proportion of areas in which the two models agree on the sign of the climatic response is only 53 – 60% both for increases in CO2 alone and for increases in CO2 together with direct radiative forcing by sulphate aerosols, but somewhat larger, 59 – 70% for the separate aerosol effect. In areas where the response is strong (at least twice the standard error associated with internal variability) in both models, the agreement is better and the contrast between the different forcings becomes more marked. The proportion of agreement in such areas is 57 – 75% for the response to increases in CO2 alone, 64 – 84% for the response to combined CO2 and aerosol forcing, and as high as 88 – 94% for the separate aerosol effect. The relatively good intermodel agreement for aerosol-induced climate changes is suggested to be associated with the uneven horizontal distribution of aerosol forcing. Received December 2, 1998 Revised May 5, 1999  相似文献   

7.
Summary Thin plate smoothing splines incorporating topographic dependence were used to interpolate daily global solar radiation in the Bavarian forest ecosystem monitoring network, with the degree of data smoothing determined by minimizing the generalized cross validation. A simple cross validation method was used to discuss the spatial distribution of mean relative errors at 18 forest climate stations. The results show that, from this network 14%–30% mean relative errors can be expected for most of these forest climate stations in summer, and 20%–30% mean relative errors can be found at a few of forest climate stations in winter. Time-averaging can reduce these interpolation errors. In this network a mean relative error of 10% can be expected for weekly and biweekly mean solar radiation at most of forest climate stations in summer. Large errors are related to low radiation amount under heavy cloud cover. Mean relative errors increase as daily global solar radiation decreases. Received April 20, 1999 Revised January 20, 2000  相似文献   

8.
Summary New models based on (a) Multivariate Principal Component Regression (PCR) (b) Neural Network (NN) and (c) Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) techniques were developed for long-range forecasts of summer monsoon (June–September) rainfall over two homogeneous regions of India, viz., North West India and Peninsular India. The PCR and NN models were developed with two different data sets. One set consisted 42 years (1958–1999) of data with 8 predictors and the other, 49 years (1951–1999) of data with 6 predictors. The predictors were subjected to the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) before model development. Two different neural networks were designed with 2 and 3 hidden neurons. To avoid the nonlinear instability, 20 ensemble runs were made while training the network and the ensemble mean results are discussed. The LDA model was developed with 42 years of data (1958–1999) for classifying three rainfall intervals with equal prior probability of 0.33. Both the PCR and NN models showed useful forecast skill for NW India and Peninsular India. Models with 8 predictors performed better than the models with only 6 predictors. The NN model with 3 hidden neurons performed better than model with 2 hidden neurons. For NW India, the NN model performed better than the PCR model. The RMSE of the NN model and PCR model with 8 predictors for NW India (Peninsular India) during the independent period 1984–99 was 12.5% (12.2%) and 12.6% (11.5%), respectively. Corresponding figures for the models with 6 predictors are 15.0% (13.0%) and 13.9% (11.4%) respectively. During the independent period, model errors were large in 1991, 1994, 1997 and 1999. However all the models showed deteriorating predictive skill after 1988, both for NW India and Peninsular India. The LDA model correctly classified 62% of grouped cases for NW India and Peninsular India. The LDA model showed better skill in classifying deficient rainfall (< − 8%) over NW India and excess rainfall (> 3%) over Peninsular India. Received October 2, 1999 Revised December 28, 1999  相似文献   

9.
Self-organizing map (SOM) is used to simulate summer daily precipitation over the Yangtze–Huaihe river basin in Eastern China, including future projections. SOM shows good behaviors in terms of probability distribution of daily rainfall and spatial distribution of rainfall indices, as well as consistency of multi-model simulations. Under RCP4.5 Scenario, daily rainfall at most sites (63%) is projected to shift towards larger values. For the early 21st century (2016–2035), precipitation in the central basin increases, yet decreases occur over the middle reaches of the Yangtze River as well as a part of its southeast area. For the late 21st century (2081–2100), the mean precipitation and extreme indices experience an overall increase except for a few southeast stations. The total precipitation in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River and in its south area is projected to increase from 7% at 1.5 °C global warming to 11% at 2 °C, while the intensity enhancement is more significant in southern and western sites of the domain. A clustering allows to regroup all SOM nodes into four distinct regimes. Such regional synoptic regimes show remarkable stability for future climate. The overall intensification of precipitation in future climate is linked to the occurrence-frequency rise of a wet regime which brings longitudinally closer the South Asia High (eastward extended) and the Western Pacific Subtropical High (westward extended), as well as the reduction of a dry pattern which makes the two atmospheric centers of action move away from each other.  相似文献   

10.
The fractions of local traffic (LT), urban background (UBG) and regional background (RBG) of the particle pollution at a traffic-influenced kerbside in Dresden, Germany, were determined by measurements of size-segregated mass concentration, chemical composition and particle size distributions in a network of five measurement stations partly existing and partly set up for this study. Besides the kerbside station, one urban background site and three rural sites were included in the study. Using data from these different sites, the LT, UBG, and RBG contributions were calculated, following the approach of Lenschow et al. (2001). At the kerbside site, 19% of the total number concentration (DpSt = 10–600 nm) could be attributed to the RBG, 15% to the UBG, and 66% to the LT immediately nearby. Particle mass concentrations up to Dpaer = 420 nm RBG amounts to 68%, UBG to 21%, and LT only to 11%. Highest mass concentrations were observed at all stations in autumn and winter during easterly inflow directions. The local traffic fraction of PM10 mass at the kerbside station was found to be 30% for westerly inflow, but only 7% for southeasterly inflow due to the dominating transport fraction from up to 80% of the particle mass at this inflow direction. Size-resolved investigation showed the main fractions in both the particle size ranges of Dpaer = 0.42 to 1.2 and 0.14 to 0.42 μm at all stations. The main components sulphate, ammonium and total carbon showed higher concentrations at south-eastern/eastern inflow in autumn at all stations, while nitrate at the kerbside and urban background site was higher during westerly inflow in winter. The chemical composition at the regional background site at westerly inflow (12% nitrate, 8% sulphate, 11% total carbon) was significantly different from that at easterly inflow (3% nitrate, 15% sulphate, 22% total carbon). The prevailing part of the ionic mass was always found in the fine particle range of Dpaer = 0.14 to 1.2 μm at all stations. For all inflow directions highest total carbon concentrations were observed at the kerbside station, especially in the ultra-fine size range of Dpaer = 0.05 to 0.14 μm with up to 30% of the whole carbon. PAH concentrations were always higher at south-eastern/eastern inflow especially during wintertime. Trace metal components and silicon were found mainly in the coarse mode fraction at the kerbside resulting from abrasion or resuspension.  相似文献   

11.
Previous measurements of urban energy balances generally have been limited to densely built, central city sites and older suburban locations with mature tree canopies that are higher than the height of the buildings. In contrast, few data are available for the extensive, open vegetated types typical of low-density residential areas that have been newly converted from rural land use. We made direct measurements of surface energy fluxes using the eddy-covariance technique at Greenwood, a recently developed exurban neighbourhood near Kansas City, Missouri, USA, during an intensive field campaign in August 2004. Energy partitioning was dominated by the latent heat flux under both cloudy and near clear-sky conditions. The mean daytime Bowen ratio (β) values were 0.46, 0.48, and 0.47 respectively for the cloudy, near clear-sky and all-sky conditions. Net radiation (R n ) increased rapidly from dawn (−34 and −58W m−2) during the night to reach a maximum (423 and 630W m−2) after midday for cloudy and near clear-sky conditions respectively. Mean daytime values were 253 and 370W m−2, respectively for the cloudy and near clear-sky conditions, while mean daily values were 114 for cloudy and 171W m−2 for near clear-sky conditions, respectively. Midday surface albedo values were 0.25 and 0.24 for the cloudy and near clear-sky conditions, respectively. The site exhibited an angular dependence on the solar elevation angle, in contrast to previous observations over urban and suburban areas, but similar to vegetated surfaces. The latent heat flux (Q E ), sensible heat flux (Q H ), and the residual heat storage ΔQ s terms accounted for between 46–58%, 21–23%, and 18–31% of R n , respectively, for all-sky conditions and time averages. The observed albedo, R n , and Q E values are higher than the values that have been reported for suburban areas with high summer evapotranspiration rates in North America. These results suggest that the rapidly growing residential areas at the exurban fringe of large metropolitan areas have a surface energy balance that is more similar to the rural areas from which they were developed than it is to the older suburbs and city centres that make up the urban fabric to which they are being joined.  相似文献   

12.
The West African monsoon (WAM) circulation and intensity have been shown to be influenced by the land surface in numerous numerical studies using regional scale and global scale atmospheric climate models (RCMs and GCMs, respectively) over the last several decades. The atmosphere–land surface interactions are modulated by the magnitude of the north–south gradient of the low level moist static energy, which is highly correlated with the steep latitudinal gradients of the vegetation characteristics and coverage, land use, and soil properties over this zone. The African Multidisciplinary Monsoon Analysis (AMMA) has organised comprehensive activities in data collection and modelling to further investigate the significance land–atmosphere feedbacks. Surface energy fluxes simulated by an ensemble of land surface models from AMMA Land-surface Model Intercomparison Project (ALMIP) have been used as a proxy for the best estimate of the “real world” values in order to evaluate GCM and RCM simulations under the auspices of the West African Monsoon Modelling Experiment (WAMME) project, since such large-scale observations do not exist. The ALMIP models have been forced in off-line mode using forcing based on a mixture of satellite, observational, and numerical weather prediction data. The ALMIP models were found to agree well over the region where land–atmosphere coupling is deemed to be most important (notably the Sahel), with a high signal to noise ratio (generally from 0.7 to 0.9) in the ensemble and a inter-model coefficient of variation between 5 and 15%. Most of the WAMME models simulated spatially averaged net radiation values over West Africa which were consistent with the ALMIP estimates, however, the partitioning of this energy between sensible and latent heat fluxes was significantly different: WAMME models tended to simulate larger (by nearly a factor of two) monthly latent heat fluxes than ALMIP. This results due to a positive precipitation bias in the WAMME models and a northward displacement of the monsoon in most of the GCMs and RCMs. Another key feature not found in the WAMME models is peak seasonal latent heat fluxes during the monsoon retreat (approximately a month after the peak precipitation rates) from soil water stores. This is likely related to the WAMME northward bias of the latent heat flux gradient during the WAM onset.  相似文献   

13.
High resolution gridded mean daily temperature datasets are valuable for research and applications in agronomy, meteorology, hydrology, ecology, and many other disciplines depending on weather or climate. The gridded datasets and the models used for their estimation are being constantly improved as there is always a need for more accurate datasets as well as for datasets with a higher spatial and temporal resolution. We developed a spatio-temporal regression kriging model for Croatia at 1 km spatial resolution by adapting the spatio-temporal regression kriging model developed for global land areas. A geometrical temperature trend, digital elevation model, and topographic wetness index were used as covariates together with measurements from the Croatian national meteorological network for the year 2008. This model performed better than the global model and previously developed models for Croatia, based on MODIS land surface temperature images. The R2 was 97.8% and RMSE was 1.2 °C for leave-one-out and 5-fold cross-validation. The proposed national model still has a high level of uncertainty at higher altitudes leaving it suitable for agricultural areas that are dominant in lower and medium altitudes.  相似文献   

14.
Low-latitude cloud distributions and cloud responses to climate perturbations are compared in near-current versions of three leading U.S. AGCMs, the NCAR CAM 3.0, the GFDL AM2.12b, and the NASA GMAO NSIPP-2 model. The analysis technique of Bony et al. (Clim Dyn 22:71–86, 2004) is used to sort cloud variables by dynamical regime using the monthly mean pressure velocity ω at 500 hPa from 30S to 30N. All models simulate the climatological monthly mean top-of-atmosphere longwave and shortwave cloud radiative forcing (CRF) adequately in all ω-regimes. However, they disagree with each other and with ISCCP satellite observations in regime-sorted cloud fraction, condensate amount, and cloud-top height. All models have too little cloud with tops in the middle troposphere and too much thin cirrus in ascent regimes. In subsidence regimes one model simulates cloud condensate to be too near the surface, while another generates condensate over an excessively deep layer of the lower troposphere. Standardized climate perturbation experiments of the three models are also compared, including uniform SST increase, patterned SST increase, and doubled CO2 over a mixed layer ocean. The regime-sorted cloud and CRF perturbations are very different between models, and show lesser, but still significant, differences between the same model simulating different types of imposed climate perturbation. There is a negative correlation across all general circulation models (GCMs) and climate perturbations between changes in tropical low cloud cover and changes in net CRF, suggesting a dominant role for boundary layer cloud in these changes. For some of the cases presented, upper-level clouds in deep convection regimes are also important, and changes in such regimes can either reinforce or partially cancel the net CRF response from the boundary layer cloud in subsidence regimes. This study highlights the continuing uncertainty in both low and high cloud feedbacks simulated by GCMs.  相似文献   

15.
Summary Climatological characteristics along the northern Croatian Adriatic coast have been examined for nine meteorological stations for the summertime sea/land breeze circulation. The stations considered are Pula-airport, Opatija, Rijeka, Senj, Malinska, Rijeka-airport, Mali Lošinj, Rab and Zadar. The hourly surface measurements at each station from June to September for the period 1991–2004 as well as the radiosoundings in Zadar (from 2002 to 2004) were used for the analysis. A dataset with the sea/land breeze days was formed according to the several criteria. The mean daily maxima of both air and sea surface temperatures were more influenced by the large scale disturbances toward north (e.g. in Rijeka or Opatija) compared to the values for e.g. Zadar. Furthermore, the influence of the large scale disturbances diminished toward the south concerning the sea–land temperature difference only at the stations placed at Rijeka Bay and Velebit channel. The strongest sea breeze was found at Pula-airport and the most frequent ones at Opatija and Zadar. At Senj the rarest, the weakest and the shortest sea breeze was observed. The climatological records of wind speed and air-sea temperature difference (ΔT) showed for Opatija, Malinska and Zadar that the maximum measured wind speed is around 4.5 °C confirming the nonlinear relationship between the sea breeze speeds and the ΔT during the day. At most stations, the clockwise rotation of the hodographs prevails which is typical for the Northern hemisphere due to Coriolis force, with the exception at Senj and Malinska. While the hodographs for Pula, Rijeka-airport and Mali Lošinj display a later onset of the prevailing sea breeze because of the interaction among several sea breeze circulations, the results for Opatija, Zadar and Senj show considerably distorted hodographs because of the nearby channeling of the air flow.  相似文献   

16.
Intra- to multi-decadal (IMD) variation in terrestrial precipitation during 1901–98 was evaluated here by sampling annual precipitation rankings over 6–30 year moving time windows and converting those rankings to Mann-Whitney U statistics. Those U statistics were then used to identify the most significant concentrations of wet and dry years relative to a null hypothesis that assumes stationary climate variability. This time series analysis approach served as the basis of a climate survey method used to identify IMD precipitation regimes over continental areas, and was also used to evaluate IMD variation in time series of annual precipitation spatially averaged over those areas. These methods showed a highly significant incidence of wet years over North America during 1972–98, with 8 of the 10 wettest years of 1901–98 occurring during that 27-year period. A comparably significant incidence of late century wetness was also found over a northern Europe grid region, with 7 of the 10 wettest years occurring during 1978–98. Although significant wet and dry regimes were also found over other land areas in the last decades of the 20th century, the late century North American and northern European wet periods stood out as the most statistically significant found here during 1901–98. It is suggested that these recent wet periods are actually terrestrial evidence of a single multi-decadal precipitation mode extending across the North Atlantic, and the most observable evidence of an even broader pattern of recent North Atlantic climate change.  相似文献   

17.
Summary A comparative study was performed to evaluate the performance of the UK Met Office’s Global Seasonal (GloSea) prediction General Circulation Model (GCM) for the forecast of maximum surface air temperature (Tmax) over the Indian region using the model generated hindcast of 15-members ensemble for 16 years (1987–2002). Each hindcast starts from 1st January and extends for a period of six months in each year. The model hindcast Tmax is compared with Tmax obtained from verification analysis during the hot weather season on monthly and seasonal scales from March to June. The monthly and seasonal model hindcast climatology of Tmax from 240 members during March to June and the corresponding observed climatology show highly significant (above 99.9% level) correlation coefficients (CC) although the hindcast Tmax is over-estimated (warm bias) over most parts of the Indian region. At the station level over New Delhi, although the forecast error (forecast-observed) at the monthly scale gradually increases from March to June, the forecast error at the seasonal scale during March to May (MAM) is found to be just 1.67 °C. The GloSea model also simulates well Tmax anomalies on monthly and seasonal scales during March to June with the lower Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of bias corrected forecast (less than 1.2 °C), which is much less than the corresponding RMSE of climatology (reference) forecast. The anomaly CCs (ACCs) over the station in New Delhi are also highly significant (above 95% level) on monthly to seasonal time scales from March to June, except for April. The skill of the GloSea model for the seasonal forecast of Tmax as measured from the ACC map and the bias corrected RMSE map is reasonably good during MAM and April to June (AMJ) with higher ACC (significant at 95% level) and lower RMSE (less than 1.5 °C) found over many parts of the Indian regions. Authors’ addresses: D. R. Pattanaik, H. R. Hatwar, G. Srinivasan, Y. V. Ramarao, India Meteorological Department (IMD), New Delhi, India; U. C. Mohanty, P. Sinha, Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology, Hauz Khas, New Delhi 110016, India; Anca Brookshaw, UK Met Office, UK.  相似文献   

18.
In order to investigate Last Glacial Maximum and future climate, we “precalibrate” the intermediate complexity model GENIE-1 by applying a rejection sampling approach to deterministic emulations of the model. We develop ~1,000 parameter sets which reproduce the main features of modern climate, but not precise observations. This allows a wide range of large-scale feedback response strengths which generally encompass the range of GCM behaviour. We build a deterministic emulator of climate sensitivity and quantify the contributions of atmospheric (±0.93°C, 1σ) vegetation (±0.32°C), ocean (±0.24°C) and sea–ice (±0.14°C) parameterisations to the total uncertainty. We then perform an LGM-constrained Bayesian calibration, incorporating data-driven priors and formally accounting for structural error. We estimate climate sensitivity as likely (66% confidence) to lie in the range 2.6–4.4°C, with a peak probability at 3.6°C. We estimate LGM cooling likely to lie in the range 5.3–7.5°C, with a peak probability at 6.2°C. In addition to estimates of global temperature change, we apply our ensembles to derive LGM and 2xCO2 probability distributions for land carbon storage, Atlantic overturning and sea–ice coverage. Notably, under 2xCO2 we calculate a probability of 37% that equilibrium terrestrial carbon storage is reduced from modern values, so the land sink has become a net source of atmospheric CO2.  相似文献   

19.
Daily rainfall and temperature data were extracted from the multi-ensemble HadRM3H regional climate model (RCM) integrations for control (1960–1990) and future (2070–2100) time-slices. This dynamically downscaled output was bias-corrected on observed mean statistics and used as input to hydrological models calibrated for eight catchments which are critical water resources in northwest England. Simulated daily flow distributions matched observed from Q95 to Q5, suggesting that RCM data can be used with some confidence to examine future changes in flow regime. Under the SRES A2 (UKCIP02 Medium-High) scenario, annual runoff is projected to increase slightly at high elevation catchments, but reduce by ~16% at lower elevations. Impacts on monthly flow distribution are significant, with summer reductions of 40–80% of 1961–90 mean flow, and winter increases of up to 20%. This changing seasonality has a large impact on low flows, with Q95 projected to decrease in magnitude by 40–80% in summer months, with serious consequences for water abstractions and river ecology. In contrast, high flows (> Q5) are projected to increase in magnitude by up to 25%, particularly at high elevation catchments, providing an increased risk of flooding during winter months. These changes will have implications for management of water resources and ecologically important areas under the EU Water Framework Directive.  相似文献   

20.
The effect of climate change on the Brewer–Dobson circulation and, in particular, the large-scale seasonal-mean transport between the troposphere and stratosphere is compared in a number of middle atmosphere general circulation models. All the models reproduce the observed upwelling across the tropical tropopause balanced by downwelling in the extra tropics, though the seasonal cycle in upwelling in some models is more semi-annual than annual. All the models also consistently predict an increase in the mass exchange rate in response to growing greenhouse gas concentrations, irrespective of whether or not the model includes interactive ozone chemistry. The mean trend is 11 kt s−1 year−1 or about 2% per decade but varies considerably between models. In all but one of the models the increase in mass exchange occurs throughout the year though, generally, the trend is larger during the boreal winter. On average, more than 60% of the mean mass fluxes can be explained by the EP-flux divergence using the downward control principle. Trends in the annual mean mass fluxes derived from the EP-flux divergence also explain about 60% of the trend in the troposphere-to-stratosphere mass exchange rate when averaged over all the models. Apart from two models the interannual variability in the downward control derived and actual mass fluxes were generally well correlated, for the annual mean.  相似文献   

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