共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 750 毫秒
1.
A. V. Desherevskii V. I. Zhuravlev A. N. Nikolsky A. Ya. Sidorin 《Seismic Instruments》2017,53(1):46-59
Time series of geophysical monitoring data are very specific. They can contain complicated irregular variations and nonstationary effects of various kinds. Time-varying noise, numerous gaps in the data, trends, technical drawbacks, and other hardly predictable features are often present in these time series. These peculiarities demand special methods and procedures for acquisition and analysis of the data. The first part of the paper discusses the peculiarities of the software for such time series, and a brief review of the methods for solving the task is given. In the second part of the paper, the universal software package WinABD developed by the authors for multivariable analysis of geophysical time series will be described. The technologies realized in the software package and intended for analysis of similar signals will be considered. 相似文献
2.
V. G. Getmanov A. D. Gvishiani D. A. Kamaev A. S. Kornilov 《Izvestiya Physics of the Solid Earth》2016,52(2):259-270
The problem of the algorithmic recognition of anomalous time intervals in the time series of the sea-level observations conducted by the Russian Tsunami Warning Survey (RTWS) is considered. The normal and anomalous sea-level observations are described. The polyharmonic models describing the sea-level fluctuations on the short time intervals are constructed, and sea-level forecasting based on these models is suggested. The algorithm for the recognition of anomalous time intervals is developed and its work is tested on the real RTWS data. 相似文献
3.
A. A. Lyubushin 《Izvestiya Physics of the Solid Earth》2016,52(6):810-820
The relationship is considered between the statistics of the field of low-frequency seismic noise which was synchronously recorded by two broadband seismic networks in Japan (78 stations) and California (81 stations). The analysis is based on the data for seven years of observations (2008–2014). For each network, the daily time series of the median values are constructed for five parameters of seismic noise: kurtosis (excess), minimal normalized entropy of the distribution of the squared wavelet coefficients, generalized Hurst exponent, support width of the singularity spectrum, and index of linear predictability. The median values for each parameter were calculated on a daily basis over all the stations of the networks and resulted in a time series containing 2557 data points of the integral characteristics of the noise with a daily time step. The use of the median values of the noise parameters avoids considering the effects of the gaps in recording by individual stations and provides the continuous time series as the integral characteristic of the whole network. Next, for each network, the aggregate signals were calculated for the obtained five-variate time series. By construction, the aggregate signal is a scalar signal which maximally accumulates the most general variations that are simultaneously present in all the analyzed signals and, at the same time, rejects the components that are only characteristic of a single process. The final step of the analysis consists in estimating the evolution of the quadratic spectrum in the moving time window with a length of one year. It is shown that during the considered interval of the observations, the coherence is characterized by the increasing linear trend, which independently supports the previous conclusion about the enhancement of the synchronization between the parameters of the global seismic noise. 相似文献
4.
RAFAEL G. QUIMPO 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(4):111-118
Abstract The need for specifying water availability in terms of its time sequence and distribution, rather than in terms of lumped quantities or flow duration, has given rise to data asquisition programs which use shorter sampling intervals. Shorter time intervals, in turn, has resulted in serially correlated observations. In order to determine the reliability of design variables derived from these observations, it is necessary to reduce these data to an equivalent series of independent observations, or find the effective lenght of the series. A general parametric formula is developed for the effective number of observations for the second order autoregressive process, which has been found to apply to the series of mean daily river flows. Different values of the parameters were programmed in a digital computer to obtain tables for data reduction. 相似文献
5.
Mechanisms of the positive changes in the heat budget of the active layer when its surface is cooling down and at its current eustasy are proposed. The proposed mechanisms are based on the analysis of long series of observations of the Black Sea temperature and level. The basic factors determining the vulnerability of the coastal infrastructure are established and a simplified scheme for assessing the possible damage is given. The development of the background factors in the near future is predicted and the necessity for the Black Sea countries to implement individual redemption plans is substantiated. 相似文献
6.
A scheme of water balance differentiation of a territory is proposed. The vertical and space-time structure of water balance are considered. A procedure for regional space-time analysis of water balance was developed and tested, allowing one to evaluate its different characteristics and relationships, to simulate the series of their mean annual values in points where no observations are available, and to carry out computeraided mapping of the obtained results. Electronic maps were constructed to characterize the distribution of river runoff and its surface and subsurface components over the European Russia, the correlation and conjunction between them, the distribution of annual precipitation, and the precipitation of the warm and cold periods over the territory. Statistical relationships, reflecting different aspects of space-time variations in the major water balance elements, are given. 相似文献
7.
This article discusses issues relevant to the 2015 recalibration of the time series of classical solar indices. It shows that the Wolf numbers WN and the group numbers GN are sensitive to the quality of the observations underpinning the reconstructions of the relevant time series, given the intermittent recordings in the 17th and 18th centuries. The authors suggest that research efforts should focus on the compilation of a long series of total sunspot areas (absolute sunspot magnetic flux), because, on the one hand, this series is less sensitive to poor-quality observations, while, on the other hand, it reflects a clear physical index. 相似文献
8.
土体地震反应分析的简化有效应力法 总被引：6，自引：1，他引：6
本文提出了一个计算二维土体地震反应的简化有效应力法。该方法将整个地震特时分成若干时段，对每个时段用等效线性迭代进行次线性分析，等效剪应变幅值取该时剪应变均方根值的√２倍。 相似文献
9.
Spectral analysis of climate data 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
The complexity of climate variability on all time scales requires the use of several refined tools to unravel its primary dynamics from observations. Indeed, ideas from the theory of dynamical systems have provided new ways of interpreting the information contained in climatic time series.We review the properties of several modern time series analysis methods. Those methods belong to four main classes: Fourier techniques (Blackman-Tukey and Multi-Taper), Maximum Entropy technique, Singular-spectrum techniques and wavelet analysis. Their respective advantages and limitations are illustrated by numerical experiments on synthetic time series. As climate data can be irregularly spaced in time, we also compare three interpolating methods on those time series. Those tests are aimed at showing the pitfalls of the blind use of mathematical or statistical techniques on climate data.We apply those methods to real climatic data from temperature variations over the last century, and the Vostok ice core deuterium record over the last glacial cycle. Then we show how interpretations on the dynamics of climate can be derived on those time scales. 相似文献
10.
Summary Three different methods are given for the Fourier analysis of time series leading to the determination of high reliable values of frequencies, amplitudes and phases of the inherent components. For two methods the hypothesis is made that the time series is sufficiently long to separate very close components, while for the third the frequencies are supposed to be given. Two of these methods have been applied to a time series obtained by sampling an artificial tidal function. 相似文献
11.
Verification of ARMA identification for modelling temporal correlations of GNSS observations using the ARMASA toolbox 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The classical least-squares (LS) algorithm is widely applied in practice of processing observations from Global Satellite Navigation Systems (GNSS). However, this approach provides reliable estimates of unknown parameters and realistic accuracy measures only if both the functional and stochastic models are appropriately specified. One essential deficiency of the stochastic model implemented in many available GNSS software products consists in neglecting temporal correlations of GNSS observations. Analysing time series of observation residuals resulting from the LS evaluation, the temporal correlation behaviour of GNSS measurements can be efficiently described by means of socalled autoregressive moving average (ARMA) processes. For a given noise realisation, a well-fitting ARMA model can be automatically estimated and identified using the ARMASA toolbox available free of charge in MATLAB® Central.In the preliminary stage of applying the ARMASA toolbox to residual-based modelling of temporal correlations of GNSS observations, this paper presents an empirical performance analysis of the automatic ARMA estimation tool using a large amount of simulated noise time series with representative temporal correlation properties comparable to the GNSS residuals. The results show that the rate of unbiased model estimates increases with data length and decreases with model complexity. For large samples, more than 80% of the identified ARMA models are unbiased. Additionally, the model error representing the deviation between the true data-generating process and the model estimate converges rapidly to the associated asymptotical value for a sufficiently large sample size with respect to the correlation length. 相似文献
12.
Rotational components of earthquake ground motion have not been considered for seismic analysis, design and performance assessment because recordings of these components are unavailable. A number of procedures have been proposed to extract rotational components of ground motion from translational time series recorded at multiple, closely spaced recording stations. In this paper, a new procedure that is capable of capturing higher frequency content in rotational time‐series is presented. The frequencies at which numerical errors are introduced in the solution, which are a function of apparent wave velocity and array dimension, are identified. Results are presented for the proposed procedure, the widely accepted geodetic method, and a single‐station procedure developed by the authors, all using data recorded at the Lotung array in Taiwan. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
13.
Retrospective multivariate Bayesian change-point analysis: A simultaneous single change in the mean of several hydrological sequences 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
L. Perreault é. Parent J. Bernier B. Bobée M. Slivitzky 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2000,14(4):243-261
Although hydrological time series for different sites in a given region are usually correlated and that climate changes should have a regional impact on water resources, very little has appeared in the literature about multivariate change-point analysis. This paper generalizes the univariate Bayesian approach for the detection of a single shift in the mean level to study a change in the mean-vector of a sequence of multivariate normal vectors. Two different problems are considered: the first one is the estimation of the unknown regional change-point under the hypothesis that a shift occurred, while the second one is the overall assessment of change versus no change. This method is illustrated by an application to streamflow data series for six rivers situated in the Northern Québec Labrador region. 相似文献
14.
The variation of intensity in spectral line wings, which was obtained from observations of the patrol telescope at the Kislovodsk Mountain Astronomical Station of the Pulkovo Observatory, Russian Academy of Science (KMAS) and the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph (IRIS) space observatory, are considered. A series of observations lasting a few hours near the solar active regions, in which both short- and longperiod oscillations were observed simultaneously during 2014–2015, are analyzed. It is found out that oscillations with a period of 3–5 min can exist at one time and in one place with oscillations with a period of about 100 min. The amplitude of long-period oscillations can be comparable with that for short-period oscillations. The conditions for excitation of the wave processes are considered. Oscillations with a period of 100 min have a weak dependence on the area of the active region. 相似文献
15.
16.
Antonín Zeman Reviewer M. Burša Reviewer M. Pick 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》1981,25(3):284-288
Summary Simple expressions for the deformation of equipotential surfaces and changes of the deflections of the vertical are derived at points of the Earth's surface, which are due to the variations of the rotational component of the gravity potential under free nutation of the Earth's axis of rotation (pole wandering). The results of the solution of this problem given in[1] are discussed. The values of the tilts and the changes of geoid heights for extreme deviations of the poles are considered from the point of view of the effect on measuring tilts and on levelling. An elastically deformable Earth is assumed. It is concluded that reductions with respect to the mean Earth's pole are not realistic at the present degree of accuracy of levelling. The necessity to reduce long-term tilt observations, or the possibility of determining the time variations of the rotational axis from the analysis of these observations is pointed out. 相似文献
17.
This study investigates storminess in northern Italy and the northern Adriatic Sea through the examination of several storm proxies. These proxies are based on homogenized daily mean pressure series given at a set of stations (Genoa, Milan, Padua, Turin, and Hvar). The application of widely accepted and well-known methods on pressure series allows for a long-term year-to-year analysis of the intra-seasonal storm variability. As storminess is usually more intense throughout the cold season, our analysis is limited to the October–March period of each year. The following proxies are considered in this study: First, we assess the statistics of geostrophic wind speed. These statistics are derived from two adjacent triangles that are located across the Adriatic Sea (Padua–Hvar–Genoa) and in northern Italy (Genoa–Padua–Turin). Second, we evaluate annual statistics of time series of pressure tendency. Last, intra-seasonal low percentiles of pressure are also made use of. These proxies are used to describe the evolution of the storm climate far back in time, covering in some cases a 260-year long period. The proxies show pronounced interannual and interdecadal variability, but no sustained long-term trend. 相似文献
18.
19.
Three-dimensional global circulation models (GCMs) are state-of-the-art tools for projecting possible changes in climate. GCM simulations have frequently been validated against observations in terms of time-averaged variables while daily time series have not been studied extensively. In this paper, 30-year simulations of daily extreme temperatures are compared with the 30-year series recorded in Moravia. Attention is focused on the annual cycles, trimmed characteristics and average interdiurnal variability which are calculated for the average simulated series (4 gridpoints) and the average time series recorded in Moravia (5 stations). It is shown that daily extreme temperature variability is underestimated in the simulations, maximum (minimum) temperatures being underestimated (overestimated). Generally, the persistence of the simulated series is much higher, and small day-to-day changes are observed more frequenly than those in reality. The model is unable to reflect large changes between two consecutive days. 相似文献
20.
W. M. Birrer 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1974,112(3):523-532
Summary The 45-year series of total ozone observations at Arosa, Switzerland, is used, after being homogenized, to study the significance of the trend in atmospheric ozone content which seems to exist during the past decade. Much larger trends than during the 1960s were observed at Arosa during certain periods in the past. Trend values are decreasing with increasing period length. Even trends observed in a world-wide network must be considered with caution as long as the network is not dense enough and not equally distributed over the globe. 相似文献