共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 31 毫秒
1.
Changes in North Sea storm surge conditions for four transient future climate realizations 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Storm surges in the North Sea are one of the threats for coastal infrastructure and human safety. Under an anthropogenic climate change, the threat of extreme storm surges may be enlarged due to changes in the wind climate. Possible future storm surge climates based on transient simulations (1961–2100) are investigated with a hydrodynamical model for the North Sea. The climate change scenarios are based on regionalized meteorological conditions with the regional climate model CCLM which is forced by AR4 climate simulations with the general circulation model ECHAM5/MPIOM under two IPCC emission scenarios (SRES A1B and B1) and two initial conditions. Possible sea level rise in the North Sea is not taken into account. The analysis of future wind-induced changes of the water levels is focused on extreme values. Special emphasis is given to the southeastern North Sea (German Bight). Comparing the 30-year averages of the annual 99 percentiles of the wind-induced water levels between the four climate realizations and the respective control climates, a small tendency toward an increase is inferred for all climate change realizations toward the end of the twenty-first century. Concerning the German Bight, the climate change signals are higher for the North Frisian coastal areas than for the East Frisian ones. This is consistent with an increase in frequency of strong westerly winds. Considering the whole time series (1961–2100) for selected areas, this tendency is superimposed with strong decadal fluctuations. It is found that uncertainties are related not only to the used models and emission scenarios but also to the initial conditions pointing to the internal natural variability. 相似文献
2.
In this study a non-hydrostatic version of Penn State University (PSU) -- NationalCenter for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) mesoscale model is used to simulate thesuper cyclonic storm that crossed Orissa coast on 29 October 1999. The model isintegrated up to 123 h for producing 5-day forecast of the storm. Several importantfields including sea level pressure, horizontal wind and rainfall are compared with theverification analysis/observation to examine the performance of the model. The modelsimulated track of the cyclone is compared with the best-fit track obtained from IndiaMeteorological Department (IMD) and the track obtained from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. The model is found to perform reasonably well in simulating the track and in particular, the intensity of the storm. 相似文献
3.
Myslenkov S. A. Platonov V. S. Silvestrova K. P. Dobrolyubov S. A. 《Doklady Earth Sciences》2021,498(2):502-508
Doklady Earth Sciences - Wind wave modeling (WAVEWATCH III model) is used to analyze the storm activity in the Kara Sea for the period from 1979 to 2019. The NCEP/CFSR/CFSv2 reanalysis data used as... 相似文献
4.
P. L. S. Rao U. C. Mohanty P. V. S. Raju M. A. Arain 《Journal of Earth System Science》2004,113(3):281-298
The study delineates the vorticity and angular momentum balances of Asian summer monsoon during the evolution and established
phases. It also elucidates the differences between these balances in the National Centre for Environmental Prediction/National
Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis and the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (NCMRWF)
analysis fields. The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis for a 40 year period (1958-97) and the NCMRWF analysis for a three year (1994-96)
period are made use of for the purpose. The time mean summer monsoon circulation is bifurcated into stable mean and transient
eddy components and the mean component is elucidated.
The generation of vorticity due to stretching of isobars balances most of the vorticity transported out of the monsoon domain
during the evolution period. However, during the established period, the transportation by the relative and planetary vorticity
components exceeds the generation due to stretching. The effective balancing mechanism is provided by vorticity generation
due to sub-grid scale processes. The flux convergence of omega and relative momenta over the monsoon domain is effectively
balanced by pressure torque during the evolution and established phases. Nevertheless, the balance is stronger during the
established period due to the increase in the strength of circulation.
Both the NCMRWF and NCEP fields indicate the mean features related to vorticity and angular momentum budgets realistically.
Apart from the oceanic bias (strong circulation over oceans rather than continents), the summer monsoon circulation indicated
by the NCEP is feeble compared to NCMRWF. The significant terms in the large-scale budgets of vorticity and angular momentum
enunciate this aspect 相似文献
5.
Marina Aloysius S Sijikumar S S Prijith Mannil Mohan K Parameswaran 《Journal of Earth System Science》2011,120(2):269-279
The circulation dynamics of an event marked by the formation of an aerosol cluster off the coast of Maharashtra on April 22,
2006, its southward migration along the Indian west coast with a mean speed of ~200 km/day and its final dissipation after
reaching the end of the peninsula by April 28, 2006 as revealed by MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) against
the pre-monsoon conditions of April 2006 are examined in this study. The maximum aerosol concentration in the cluster was
found getting confined to lower and lower altitudes during its southward movement. The NCEP/NCAR (National Centers for Environmental
Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research) reanalysis wind field indicates that the atmospheric circulation, especially
the horizontal wind convergence is the major factor that guides the formation and the dynamics of the cluster. Fine mode fraction
from MODIS suggests that the cluster mainly consists of coarse dust particles. The regional climate model, RegCM3 with an
efficient dust generation module simulates the formation and movement of the cluster appreciably well. The simulations which
also exhibit the altitudinally descending nature of the cluster during its southward movement confirm the mechanism which
governs the cluster dynamics suggested based on MODIS and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. 相似文献
6.
Two bottom-mounted recording Doppler current profilers (RDCP) were deployed at nearshore locations (approximately 3 and 8 km offshore, in about 18 m water depth) in the southeast Chukchi Sea, Alaska, from October 2009 to September 2010 (UTC) with the goal of linking observed wave activity—wind-sea and swells—to their synoptic drivers. The northerly RDCP recorded a total of 16 events of elevated wave states: 15 exceeding 1 m significant wave height (SWH), and 1 exceeding 2 m SWH. The southerly RDCP recorded a total of 25 events of elevated wave states: 23 exceeding 1 m SWH, 2 m exceeded on two occasions and a SWH of 3 m was observed. Detailed analysis of the three large events (i.e., SWH events ≥2 m), including comparison with high-resolution reanalysis wind data (North America regional reanalysis), strongly suggested the wave energy evolved from a distant storm and would be defined as swell. Due to the close proximity of the shoreline to the east of the instruments, wind speeds based on reanalysis were constrained so fetch was westerly. Wave direction was also westerly, varying about 25° to the north (clockwise) or the south (counterclockwise) from the wind direction which is believed to be influenced by fetch and the strong current flow located where the nearshore RDCPs were deployed. Shore-fast sea ice is also believed to play a role but shown to only dampen wave activity for 3 months (January–April 2010), thus implying early ice breakup in this nearshore region. Two events appeared to be driven by southwesterly winds associated with cyclonic systems that moved into the eastern Chukchi Sea and then stalled. However, the second storm event appeared to be driven by northwesterly winds associated with a cyclonic system over the Brooks Range, a less common occurrence. Given that the typical storm activity in the region occurs as storms move into the Bering Sea in fall, this represents another potential source for wave conditions posing danger to people on the water or to coastal infrastructure. 相似文献
7.
1979-2016年我国东北地区空中水汽状况及变化趋势分析 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
水汽是形成云和降水的物质基础,与全球水分循环和能量平衡密切相关,对天气和气候具有重要影响。基于NCEP/NCAR月值再分析资料,综合分析我国东北地区上空不同高度层位比湿的气候学特征和长期趋势变化,同时分析了整层积分水汽通量的季节变化。结果表明：东北地区空中水汽集中分布于500 hPa以下,1979年至20世纪末低层比湿呈增加趋势,2000年后转为缓慢下降,但2012年以来波动回升。此外,东北地区比湿及水汽通量季节差异明显,夏季水汽含量最多,冬季最少,秋季多于春季;东北地区水汽含量最大值出现于7月,最低值出现在每年12月至次年1月。水汽来源受东亚季风系统影响明显,夏季水汽源地主要为南海,渤海和黄海对东北地区夏季水汽也有一定贡献;其他季节水汽主要来源于西风带输送。 相似文献
8.
The Indian subcontinent is characterized by complex topography and heterogeneous land use-land cover. The Himalayas and the Tibetan Plateau are spread across the northern part of the continent. Due to its highly variable topography, understanding of the prevailing synoptic weather systems is complex over the region. The present study analyzes the energetics of Indian winter monsoon (IWM) over the Indian subcontinent using outputs of mesoscale model (MM5) forced with National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR), US, initial and boundary conditions. MM5 modeling framework, designed to simulate or predict mesoscale atmospheric circulations, is having a limited-area, non-hydrostatic and terrain following 12 sigma levels. The IWM energetics is studied using MM5 model outputs. Prior to this model’s validity and deviation from the corresponding observations (NCEP/NCAR) is assessed. The model’s overestimation/underestimation of wind, temperature and specific humidity at upper troposphere proves that the model has difficulty in picking up corresponding fields at all the model grid points because of terrain complexity over the Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau. Hence, the model fields deviate from the corresponding observations. However, model results match well with the winter global energy budget calculated using reanalysis dataset by Peixoto and Oort (1992). It suggests MM5 model’s fitness in simulating large scale synoptic weather systems. And, thus the model outputs are used for calculation of energetics associated with IWM. It is observed that beyond \(15^{{\circ }}\hbox {N}\) lower as well as upper level convergence of diabatic heating, which represents continental cooling and sinking of heat from atmosphere to land mass (i.e., surface is cooler than surrounding atmosphere) dominates. The diabatic heating divergence (cooling of continents) is found over ocean/sea and whole of the China region, Tibetan and central Himalayas (because of excess condensation than evaporation). The adiabatic generation of kinetic energy depends on the cross isobaric flow (north to south in winter, i.e., the present study shows strong circulation during IWM). It is found that wind divergence of model concludes lower level convergence over study region (i.e., strong winter circulation in the model fields). 相似文献
9.
利用2014年4月22日-23日高空、地面、区域自动气象站加密观测和1°×1°NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,分析4月23日南疆翻山型强沙尘暴天气的高低空环流及动力结构特征。结果表明:巴尔喀什湖低槽引导极地干冷空气爆发性南下进入南疆,造成4×10-2h Pa·km-1剧烈的气压梯度和地面冷锋,引发了大风、强沙尘暴,盆地中尺度低压辐合使尉犁加强为"黑风";300 h Pa极锋急流快速南下至南疆盆地,动量下传形成低空急流,高低空急流是此次强沙尘暴形成的动力条件;急流附近高空辐散、低层辐合及层结不稳定,有利于沙尘暴发生。本次强沙尘暴动力结构特征:干冷与干暖空气剧烈交绥,激发热力不稳定,产生热力对流;高空辐散、低层辐合与高低空急流、地面冷锋配合,加强上升运动,使地面沙尘卷入空中并输送;高低空急流抽吸加强冷暖空气垂直运动,位能向动能转化,引起了地面大风,驱动沙尘暴发生。 相似文献
10.
A one-year simulation of tide- andwind-driven circulation in the Java Sea, which is one ofthe Indonesian seas located in a tropical area, hasbeen carried out using a three-dimensionalhydrodynamic model incorporating the influence of thewind waves generated at the sea surface. This area isinfluenced by the monsoon climate (east- andwest-monsoon). Six hourly-wind fields at 10 m abovethe sea surface were used as a representative windfield. In other respects, the effect of waves on thethree-dimensional hydrodynamic model has beenrepresented by the surface and bottom stresses. Athird-generation wave model called WAM (WAMDI, 1988)was used to calculate the wave parameters and thewave dependence of the drag coefficient. Thetrajectory of water particles induced by thecalculated velocity fields in the Java Sea was then simulated.In dealing with hazardous phenomena, this modelwill be extended to predict suspended sediment fluxes,particularly those relating to catastrophic changes in seabottom topography and beach erosion. It is also animportant tool for the prediction of storm surge events. 相似文献
11.
12.
Several studies demonstrate that North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has dominant influence on the variability of climate over Southwest Asia. We deconstruct the NAO into its two components, the Azores High and the Icelandic Low. Regional circulations are influenced by changes not only in the pressure but also the positions of the Azores High and the Icelandic Low. The results presented in this paper exhibit that significantly great portions of interannual variance of winter precipitation over Indo-Pak Region (consists of Northeast Pakistan and Northwest India) can be explained by including the contributions of the Icelandic Low pressure in addition to ENSO and AO. This contribution also explains the physical mechanisms to establish the relationships between the COA and regional climate by examining composite maps of large-scale circulation fields using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. 相似文献
13.
Sammaneh Negah Amir-Hussain Mesakatee Sohrab Hajjam Ali Kamali 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2016,9(15):649
For the very first time, the mesoscale circulation patterns and synoptic-dynamic structure of the atmospheric systems that led to the dust emission to the south coast region of Caspian Sea (SCRCS) were identified and classified using the region synoptic stations’ observations of 2005–2013. Satellite measurements and images, NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-CHEM) model products were also used in this study. Results showed that in 49 % of cases, cyclonic circulations over the Middle East deserts were the main transporter of dust particles into the atmosphere where then transferred to the SCRCS by southerly winds over the Alborz mountains in the lower troposphere and by westerly waves in the middle and upper troposphere. During the warm seasons, the surface heating lead to the development of mesoscale thermal low pressures over the hot deserts on the eastern regions of the Caspian Sea, like Turkmenistan and Qura Qum. Those heat lows were responsible for the 38 % of the occurred events. Turbulence and instabilities in the lower troposphere were identified as the second important dust emitter to the atmosphere where those dust particles transported to the SCRCS with the strong northeasterly wind. The third pattern by 13 % of cases was belonging to the mesoscale thermal low pressure that was developed over the arid regions of Iran like Dasht-é-Kavir. Because of the nature of the turbulence in the lower troposphere and heat lows, the ascent of dust particles by these two mechanisms was limited to a shallow layer in the troposphere. The results of simulation with the WRF-CHEM model, analysis of moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) images, and spatial zoning of atmospheric optical depth (AOD) confirmed the results of the synoptic study. 相似文献
14.
15.
Bo G. Gustafsson 《Estuaries and Coasts》2000,23(2):253-266
A time-dependent model for stratification and circulation within the Baltic entrance area (Gustafsson 2000) is tested against observed salinities for the period 1961–1993. Although the Baltic Sea is one of the largest estuarine systems on earth, this model could be applicable to smaller estuarine systems and embayments with tidal exchange. The seasonal cycle of freshwater flux across the sill area does not follow the seasonal cycle of freshwater supply to the Baltic Sea. The seasonal variation of the flux is a combined effect of the seasonal variation in freshwater supply, in Baltic mean sea level, and in dispersion of salt across the sills. The seasonal variation in dispersion of salt is due to the seasonal cycle of sea level variability. The model is used to predict the inflow of high saline water to the Baltic Sea. The resulting inflow time-series is consistent with variations in the deep-water salinity and temperature in the deeper parts of the Baltic Sea. A comparison with previous estimates of the magnitude of major Baltic inflows shows that the model is able to reproduce the characteristics fairly well although the magnitude of the flows of water and salt appears lower than other estimates. It is shown that a climatic change that increases the wind mixing does not significantly change the major inflows. Both increased amplitudes of sea level variations in the Kattegat and decreased freshwater supply to the Baltic Sea substantially increase the magnitude of the inflows. It is shown that deep-water renewal in the Baltic Sea is obstructed during years with high freshwater supply even if the sea level forcing is favorable to a major inflow. 相似文献
16.
选用海河流域1961~2012年132站逐日降水资料,通过趋势分析、M-K检验、EOF和REOF等方法分析了50余年海河流域暴雨的气候统计特征。利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和历史天气图资料,研究了海河流域14个典型强致灾暴雨过程的大气环流特征。结果表明:(1)海河流域夏季暴雨日站数和暴雨量的时空分布相近,暴雨日站数下降趋势较为显著;(2)海河流域夏季暴雨的空间分布可划分为3个分布型态:西南型、东北型和东南型;(3)海河流域暴雨在20世纪70年代末至80年代初存在一次突变现象;(4)海河流域强致灾暴雨过程可归纳为5类主要环流型,即高空低槽型、高空冷涡型、副高外围切变线型、低空低涡型和台风北上型。 相似文献
17.
A. Yu. Lein A. S. Savvichev I. I. Rusanov G. A. Pavlova N. A. Belyaev K. Craine N. V. Pimenov M. V. Ivanov 《Lithology and Mineral Resources》2007,42(3):221-239
Study of biogeochemical processes in water and sediments of the Chukchi Sea in August 2004 revealed atypical maximums of the concentration of biogenic elements (N, P, and Si) and the rate of microbial sulfate reduction in the surface layer (0–3 cm) of marine sediments. The C: N: P ratio in the organic matter (OM) of this layer does not fit the Redfield-Richards stoichiometric model. Specific features of biogeochemical processes in sea are likely related to the complex dynamics of water, high primary productivity (110–1400 mg C/(m2 day)), low depth of basin (<50 m in 60% of the water area), reduced food chain due to low population of zooplankton, high density of zoobenthos (up to 4230 g m?2), and high activity of microbial processes. Drastic decrease in the concentration of biogenic elements, iodine, total alkalinity (Alk), and population of microorganisms beneath the 0–3 cm layer testify to a large-scale OM decay at the water-seafloor barrier. Our original experimental data support the high annual rate of OM mineralization at the bottom of the Chukchi Sea. 相似文献
18.
A cyclone genesis parameter, termed the genesis potential parameter (GPP), for the Indian Sea is proposed. The parameter is
defined as the product of four variables, namely vorticity at 850 hPa, middle tropospheric relative humidity, middle tropospheric
instability, and the inverse of vertical wind shear. The variables are calculated using the National Centers for Environmental
Prediction (NCEP), USA, reanalysis data, averaged within a circle of 2.5° radius around the centre of cyclonic system. The
parameter is tested with a sample dataset of 35 nondeveloping and developing low-pressure systems that formed over the Indian
Sea during the period 1995–2005. The result shows that there is a distinction between GPP values for nondeveloping and developing
systems in more than 85% cases. The composite GPP value is found to be around three to five times greater for developing systems
than for nondeveloping systems. The analysis of the parameter at early development stage of a cyclonic storm appears to provide
a useful predictive signal for intensification of the system. 相似文献
19.
Birgit H��nicke 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2010,99(8):1721-1730
A statistical downscaling approach is applied to the output of five different global climate model simulations driven by twenty-first
century future scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations. The contribution of sea-level pressure (SLP) and precipitation
changes to regional future winter sea-level changes is estimated for four Baltic sea-level stations by establishing statistical
relationships between sea level as predictand and large-scale climate fields as predictors. Using SLP as predictor for the
central and eastern Baltic Sea level stations, three climate models lead to statistically significant twenty-first century
future trends in the range of the order of 1–2 mm/year. Using precipitation as predictor for the stations in the southern
Baltic coast all five models lead to statistically significant trends with a range of the order of 0.4 mm/year. These numbers
are smaller, but of the order of magnitude as the predicted global sea-level rise. 相似文献
20.
新疆夏季变湿的大气环流异常特征 总被引：14，自引：3，他引：11
利用1961-2003年NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和中国气象局整编的新疆夏季(6~8月)月降水量资料,分析了新疆夏季1971-1986年干旱期和1987-2003年湿润期的大气环流变化异常特征.结果表明:在平均环流场上,中亚-巴尔喀什湖槽及上下游地区脊的增强是新疆地区夏季变湿的环流场特征之一,且中亚-巴尔喀什湖槽随高度增加强度明显增强,200 hPa达到最强;源于低纬阿拉伯海向北直至中亚对流层低层偏南的强气流是湿润期环流异常、降水增多的又一特征,也是水汽重要来源之一;中亚上空高空急流轴南压是新疆夏季湿润期与干旱期高空急流最重要的差异特征. 相似文献