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1.
A new approach towards the management of oil pollution accidents in marine sensitive areas is presented in this work. A set of nested models in a downscaling philosophy was implemented, externally forced by existing regional operational products. The 3D hydrodynamics, turbulence and the oil transport/weathering models are all linked in the same system, sharing the same code, exchanging information in real time and improving its ability to correctly reproduce the spill. A wind-generated wave model is also implemented using the same downscaling philosophy. Observations from several sources validated the numerical components of the system. The results obtained highlight the good performance of the system and its ability to be applied for oil spill forecasts in the region. The success of the methodology described in this paper was underline during the Costa Concordia accident, where a high resolution domain was rapidly created and deployed inside the system covering the accident site.  相似文献   

2.
Ocean transport and dispersion processes are at the present time simulated using Lagrangian stochastic models coupled with Eulerian circulation models that are supplying analyses and forecasts of the ocean currents at unprecedented time and space resolution. Using the Lagrangian approach, each particle displacement is described by an average motion and a fluctuating part. The first one represents the advection associated with the Eulerian current field of the circulation models while the second one describes the sub-grid scale diffusion. The focus of this study is to quantify the sub-grid scale diffusion of the Lagrangian models written in terms of a horizontal eddy diffusivity. Using a large database of drifters released in different regions of the Mediterranean Sea, the Lagrangian sub-grid scale diffusion has been computed, by considering different regimes when averaging statistical quantities. In addition, the real drifters have been simulated using a trajectory model forced by OGCM currents, focusing on how the Lagrangian properties are reproduced by the simulated trajectories.  相似文献   

3.
This paper proposes a numerical method to simulate oil spill trajectories, which are affected by the combination of advection, turbulent diffusion and mechanical spreading process, based on a particle tracking algorithm. Recent studies have shown that the trajectories of drifters on the ocean surface have a fractal structure that is far from being described using ordinary Brownian motion. Thus, in modeling the diffusion process, a discrete method has been employed for the generation of fractional Brownian motion (fBm) to illustrate superdiffusive transport. The algorithm is implemented to predict oil slick trajectories following the “Arteaga” oil spill accident that occurred near the Dalian coastal region in 2005. When compared with the observed data and the results of traditional diffusion modeling, the numerical results based on the fBm model are encouraging.  相似文献   

4.
Knowledge of upper ocean currents is needed for trajectory forecasts and is essential for search and rescue operations and oil spill mitigation. This paper addresses effects of surface waves on ocean currents and drifter trajectories using in situ observations. The data set includes colocated measurements of directional wave spectra from a wave rider buoy, ocean currents measured by acoustic Doppler current profilers (ADCPs), as well as data from two types of tracking buoys that sample the currents at two different depths. The ADCP measures the Eulerian current at one point, as modelled by an ocean general circulation model, while the tracking buoys are advected by the Lagrangian current that includes the wave-induced Stokes drift. Based on our observations, we assess the importance of two different wave effects: (a) forcing of the ocean current by wave-induced surface fluxes and the Coriolis–Stokes force, and (b) advection of surface drifters by wave motion, that is the Stokes drift. Recent theoretical developments provide a framework for including these wave effects in ocean model systems. The order of magnitude of the Stokes drift is the same as the Eulerian current judging from the available data. The wave-induced momentum and turbulent kinetic energy fluxes are estimated and shown to be significant. Similarly, the wave-induced Coriolis–Stokes force is significant over time scales related to the inertial period. Surface drifter trajectories were analysed and could be reproduced using the observations of currents, waves and wind. Waves were found to have a significant contribution to the trajectories, and we conclude that adding wave effects in ocean model systems is likely to increase predictability of surface drifter trajectories. The relative importance of the Stokes drift was twice as large as the direct wind drag for the used surface drifter.  相似文献   

5.

Knowledge of upper ocean currents is needed for trajectory forecasts and is essential for search and rescue operations and oil spill mitigation. This paper addresses effects of surface waves on ocean currents and drifter trajectories using in situ observations. The data set includes colocated measurements of directional wave spectra from a wave rider buoy, ocean currents measured by acoustic Doppler current profilers (ADCPs), as well as data from two types of tracking buoys that sample the currents at two different depths. The ADCP measures the Eulerian current at one point, as modelled by an ocean general circulation model, while the tracking buoys are advected by the Lagrangian current that includes the wave-induced Stokes drift. Based on our observations, we assess the importance of two different wave effects: (a) forcing of the ocean current by wave-induced surface fluxes and the Coriolis–Stokes force, and (b) advection of surface drifters by wave motion, that is the Stokes drift. Recent theoretical developments provide a framework for including these wave effects in ocean model systems. The order of magnitude of the Stokes drift is the same as the Eulerian current judging from the available data. The wave-induced momentum and turbulent kinetic energy fluxes are estimated and shown to be significant. Similarly, the wave-induced Coriolis–Stokes force is significant over time scales related to the inertial period. Surface drifter trajectories were analysed and could be reproduced using the observations of currents, waves and wind. Waves were found to have a significant contribution to the trajectories, and we conclude that adding wave effects in ocean model systems is likely to increase predictability of surface drifter trajectories. The relative importance of the Stokes drift was twice as large as the direct wind drag for the used surface drifter.

  相似文献   

6.
The hydrodynamics of coastal areas is characterized by the interaction among phenomena occurring at different spatial and temporal scales, such as the interaction of a large-scale ocean current with the local bathymetry and coastline, and local forcing conditions. In order to take into account all relevant phenomena, the study of the hydrodynamics of coastal zones requires a high-spatial and temporal resolution for both observations and simulation of local currents. This resolution can be obtained by using X-band radar, which allows simultaneous measurement of waves and currents in a range of 1–3 miles from the coastline, as well as high-resolution numerical models implemented in the area and configured through multiple nesting techniques in order to reach resolutions comparable to such coastal observations. Such an integrated monitoring system was implemented at the Isola del Giglio in 2012, after the accident of the Costa Concordia ship. Results can be used as a cross-validation of data produced independently by radar observations and numerical models. In addition, results give some important insights on the dynamics of the coastal boundary layer, both for what concerns the attenuation in the profile of the depth-averaged velocities which typically occur in turbulent boundary layers, as well as for the production, detachment and evolution of vorticity produced by the interaction of large-scale ocean currents with the coastline and the subsequent time evolution of such boundary layer. This transition between large-scale regional currents and the coastal boundary layer is often neglected in regional forecasting systems, but it has an important role in the ocean turbulence processes.  相似文献   

7.
The oil spill from Prestige tanker showed the importance of scientifically based protocols to minimize the impacts on the environment. In this work, we describe a new forecasting system to predict oil spill trajectories and their potential impacts on the coastal zone. The system is formed of three main interconnected modules that address different capabilities: (1) an operational circulation sub-system that includes nested models at different scales, data collection with near-real time assimilation, new tools for initialization or assimilation based on genetic algorithms and feature-oriented strategic sampling; (2) an oil spill coastal sub-system that allows simulation of the trajectories and fate of spilled oil together with evaluation of coastal zone vulnerability using environmental sensitivity indexes; (3) a risk management sub-system for decision support based on GIS technology. The system is applied to the Mediterranean Sea where surface currents are highly variable in space and time, and interactions between local, sub-basin and basin scale increase the non-linear interactions effects which need to be adequately resolved at each one of the intervening scales. Besides the Mediterranean Sea is a complex reduced scale ocean representing a real scientific and technological challenge for operational oceanography and particularly for oil spill response and search and rescue operations.  相似文献   

8.
An accurate method for long-term (weeks to months) projections of oil spill trajectories based on multi-year ensemble analyses of simulated surface and subsurface (z = −800 m) drifters released at the northern Gulf of Mexico spill site is demonstrated during the 2010 oil spill. The simulation compares well with satellite images of the actual oil spill which show that the surface spread of oil was mainly confined to the northern shelf and slope of the Gulf of Mexico, with some (more limited) spreading over the north/northeastern face of the Loop Current, as well as northwestward toward the Louisiana–Texas shelf. At subsurface, the ensemble projection shows drifters spreading south/southwestward, and this tendency agrees well with ADCP current measurements near the spill site during the months of May–July, which also show southward mean currents. An additional model analysis during the spill period (Apr–Jul/2010) confirms the above ensemble projection. The 2010 analysis confirms that the reason for the surface oil spread to be predominantly confined to the northern Gulf shelf and slope is because the 2010 wind was more southerly compared to climatology and also because a cyclone existed north of the Loop Current which moreover was positioned to the south of the spilled site.  相似文献   

9.
SAR observation and model tracking of an oil spill event in coastal waters   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  
Oil spills are a major contributor to marine pollution. The objective of this work is to simulate the oil spill trajectory of oil released from a pipeline leaking in the Gulf of Mexico with the GNOME (General NOAA Operational Modeling Environment) model. The model was developed by NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) to investigate the effects of different pollutants and environmental conditions on trajectory results. Also, a Texture-Classifying Neural Network Algorithm (TCNNA) was used to delineate ocean oil slicks from synthetic aperture radar (SAR) observations. During the simulation, ocean currents from NCOM (Navy Coastal Ocean Model) outputs and surface wind data measured by an NDBC (National Data Buoy Center) buoy are used to drive the GNOME model. The results show good agreement between the simulated trajectory of the oil spill and synchronous observations from the European ENVISAT ASAR (Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar) and the Japanese ALOS (Advanced Land Observing Satellite) PALSAR (Phased Array L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar) images. Based on experience with past marine oil spills, about 63.0% of the oil will float and 18.5% of the oil will evaporate and disperse. In addition, the effects from uncertainty of ocean currents and the diffusion coefficient on the trajectory results are also studied.  相似文献   

10.
A main conclusion following the oil spill from the Prestige tanker was that improvements in ocean circulation models were necessary; this was in order to predict, more accurately, the trajectories followed by the oil slicks and hence assist in fight against oil pollution operations. In this contribution, the results of the validation of a semi-empirical ocean circulation model, parameterised for the Bay of Biscay and forced with operational oceano-meteorological remote sensing observations, are shown. The model results have been validated with observations from drifting buoys, deployed in the Bay of Biscay during the crisis. The results show that the model explains a relatively large percentage of the current variability. The comparisons between the real and the estimated drifter trajectories indicate that for 3, 5 and 7 day-long trajectories, the drifter position is estimated with errors of approximately 23, 35 and 46km, respectively. The model reproduces relatively well the trajectory followed by the drifter with the shortest period (23 days).  相似文献   

11.
A new two-way nesting technique is presented for a multiple nested-grid ocean modeling system. The new technique uses the smoothed semi-prognostic (SSP) method to exchange information between the different subcomponents of the nested-grid system. Four versions of the new nesting technique are described, together with conventional one-way nesting. The performance of the different nesting techniques is compared, using two independent nested-grid modeling systems, one for the Scotian Shelf of the northwest Atlantic Ocean and the other for the Meso-American Barrier Reef System of the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Nesting using the semi-prognostic method is shown to effectively prevent unrealistic drift of the inner model, while use of the SSP method avoids unnecessary damping of small scales on the inner model grid. Comparison of the annual-mean flow field with the near-surface currents determined by Fratantoni (in J Geophys Res 106:2977–2996, 2001) from observed trajectories of near-surface drifters demonstrates the overall superiority of the nesting technique based on the SSP method.  相似文献   

12.
The rapid expansion of urbanization along the world’s coastal areas requires a more comprehensive and accurate understanding of the coastal ocean. Over the past several decades, numerical ocean circulation models have tried to provide such insight, based on our developing understanding of physical ocean processes. The systematic establishment of coastal ocean observation systems adopting cutting-edge technology, such as high frequency (HF) radar, satellite sensing, and gliders, has put such ocean model predictions to the test, by providing comprehensive observational datasets for the validation of numerical model forecasts. The New York Harbor Observing and Prediction System (NYHOPS) is a comprehensive system for understanding coastal ocean processes on the continental shelf waters of New York and New Jersey. To increase confidence in the system’s ocean circulation predictions in that area, a detailed validation exercise was carried out using HF radar and Lagrangian drifter-derived surface currents from three drifters obtained between March and October 2010. During that period, the root mean square (RMS) differences of both the east–west and north–south currents between NYHOPS and HF radar were approximately 15 cm s?1. Harmonic analysis of NYHOPS and HF radar surface currents shows similar tidal ellipse parameters for the dominant M2 tide, with a mean difference of 2.4 cm s?1 in the semi-major axis and 1.4 cm s?1 in the semi-minor axis and 3° in orientation and 10° in phase. Surface currents derived independently from drifters along their trajectories showed that NYHOPS and HF radar yielded similarly accurate results. RMS errors when compared to currents derived along the trajectory of the three drifters were approximately 10 cm s?1. Overall, the analysis suggests that NYHOPS and HF radar had similar skill in estimating the currents over the continental shelf waters of the Middle Atlantic Bight during this time period. An ensemble-based set of particle tracking simulations using one drifter which was tracked for 11 days showed that the ensemble mean separation generally increases with time in a linear fashion. The separation distance is not dominated by high frequency or short spatial scale wavelengths suggesting that both the NYHOPS and HF radar currents are representing tidal and inertial time scales correctly and resolving some of the smaller scale eddies. The growing ensemble mean separation distance is dominated by errors in the mean flow causing the drifters to slowly diverge from their observed positions. The separation distance for both HF radar and NYHOPS stays below 30 km after 5 days, and the two technologies have similar tracking skill at the 95 % level. For comparison, the ensemble mean distance of a drifter from its initial release location (persistence assumption) is estimated to be greater than 70 km in 5 days.  相似文献   

13.
A statistical oil spill response model is developed and validated by means of actual oil slick observations reported during the Prestige accident and trajectories of drifter buoys. The model is based on the analysis of a database of hypothetical oil spill scenarios simulated by means of a Lagrangian transport model. To carry out the simulations, a re-analysis database consisting of 44-year hindcast dataset of wind and waves and climatologic daily mean surface currents is used. The number of scenarios required to obtain statistically reliable results is investigated, finding that 200 scenarios provide an optimal balance between the accuracy of the results and the computational effort. The reliability of the model was analyzed by comparing the actual data with the numerical results. The agreement found between actual and numerical data shows that the developed statistical oil spill model is a valuable tool to support spill response planning.  相似文献   

14.
A two-way nested-grid ocean-circulation model is developed for the Meso-American Barrier Reef System (MBRS), using a newly developed two-way interactive nesting technique. The unique feature of this new nesting technique is its use of the semi-prognostic method (Sheng et al. 2001) to exchange information between different grids through the model momentum equations. The nested-grid model for the MBRS has a fine-resolution inner model embedded in a coarse-resolution outer model. The outer model is the western Caribbean Sea model developed by Sheng and Tang (2003), with a horizontal resolution of roughly 19 km. The inner model domain covers the northwest Caribbean Sea (NWCS) between 79°W and 89°W and between 15.5°N and 22°N, with a horizontal resolution of roughly 6 km. The nested-grid ocean model is initialized with the January mean temperature and salinity and forced by the monthly mean COADS (comprehensive ocean-atmosphere data set) wind stress and surface heat flux. The model sea-surface salinity is restored to the monthly mean climatology. The nested-grid model is integrated for 2 years and the second-year model results are presented in this paper. The model-calculated annual-mean near-surface currents over the NWCS agree reasonably well with the time-mean near-surface currents inferred by Fratantoni (2001) from trajectories of the satellite-tracked 15-m drogued drifters in the 1990s. The two-way nested model is also used to quantify the role of local wind stress, local density gradients and boundary forcings of the outer model in driving the annual-mean circulation in the region.Responsible Editor: Phil Dyke  相似文献   

15.
The responses to tidal and/or wind forces of Lagrangian trajectories and Eulerian residual velocity in the southwestern Yellow Sea are investigated using a high-resolution circulation model. The simulated tidal harmonic constants agree well with observations and existing studies. The numerical experiment reproduces the long-range southeastward Eulerian residual current over the sloping bottom around the Yangtze Bank also shown in previous studies. However, the modeled drifters deployed at the northeastern flank of the Yangtze Bank in the simulation move northeastward, crossing over this strong southeastward Eulerian residual current rather than following it. Additional sensitivity experiments reveal that the influence of the Eulerian tidal residual currents on Lagrangian trajectories is relatively weaker than that of the wind driven currents. This result is consistent with the northeastward movement of ARGOS surface drifters actually released in the southwestern Yellow Sea. Further experiments suggest that the quadratic nature of the bottom friction is the crucial factor, in the southwestern Yellow Sea, for the weaker influence of the Eulerian tidal residual currents on the Lagrangian trajectories. This study demonstrates that the Lagrangian trajectories do not follow the Eulerian residual velocity fields in the shallow coastal regions of the southwestern Yellow Sea.  相似文献   

16.
Time series changes in chlorophyll a concentration before and after the Hebei Spirit oil spill that occurred in December 2007 were analyzed using NCEP wind and SeaWiFS/MODIS ocean color data. Prevailing southwesterly winds and northeast/southwestward tidal currents pushed the oil towards Korea’s West Sea coast of Taean. After the oil spill, daily chlorophyll a concentration decreased about 45-50% compared to the normal condition before the oil spill, and this decrease continued for about two weeks. Monthly mean chlorophyll a concentration in December 2007 was lower compared to the average value for the same month between 1998 and 2007, but, in October and November 2007 before the spill and in January-February 2008 after the spill, the concentration value was higher than average for the same period between 1998 and 2007.  相似文献   

17.
One of the main challenges of the Copernicus Marine Service is the implementation of coupled ocean/waves systems that accurately estimate the momentum and energy fluxes provided by the atmosphere to the ocean. This study aims to investigate the impact of forcing the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) ocean model with forecasts from the wave model of Météo-France (MFWAM) to improve classical air-sea flux parametrizations, these latter being mostly driven by the 10-m wind. Three wave-related processes, namely, wave-state-dependent stress, Stokes drift-related effects (Stokes-Coriolis force, Stokes drift advection on tracers and on mass), and wave-state-dependent surface turbulence, are examined at a global scale with a horizontal resolution of 0.25°. Three years of sensitivity simulations (2014–2016) show positive feedback on sea surface temperature (SST) and currents when the wave model is used. A significant reduction in SST bias is observed in the tropical Atlantic Ocean. This is mainly due to the more realistic momentum flux provided by the wave model. In mid-latitudes, the most interesting impact occurs during the summer stratification, when the wind is low and the wave model produces a reduction in the turbulence linked with wave breaking. Magnitudes of the large-scale currents in the equatorial region are also improved by 10% compared to observations. In general, it is shown that using the wave model reduces on average the momentum and energy fluxes to the ocean in tropical regions, but increases them in mid-latitudes. These differences are in the order of 10 to 20% compared with the classical parametrizations found in stand-alone ocean models.  相似文献   

18.
Little is known about the fate of subsurface hydrocarbon plumes from deep-sea oil well blowouts and their effects on processes and communities. As deepwater drilling expands in the Faroe–Shetland Channel (FSC), oil well blowouts are a possibility, and the unusual ocean circulation of this region presents challenges to understanding possible subsurface oil pathways in the event of a spill. Here, an ocean general circulation model was used with a particle tracking algorithm to assess temporal variability of the oil-plume distribution from a deep-sea oil well blowout in the FSC. The drift of particles was first tracked for one year following release. Then, ambient model temperatures were used to simulate temperature-mediated biodegradation, truncating the trajectories of particles accordingly. Release depth of the modeled subsurface plumes affected both their direction of transport and distance travelled from their release location, and there was considerable interannual variability in transport.  相似文献   

19.
In this work, the benefits of high-frequency (HF) radar currents for oil spill modeling and trajectory analysis of floating objects are analyzed. The HF radar performance is evaluated by means of comparison between a drifter buoy trajectory and the one simulated using a Lagrangian trajectory model. A methodology to optimize the transport model performance and to calculate the search area of the predicted positions is proposed. This method is applied to data collected during the Galicia HF Radar Experience. This experiment was carried out to explore the capabilities of this technology for operational monitoring along the Spanish coast. Two long-range HF radar stations were installed and operated between November 2005 and February 2006 on the Galician coast. In addition, a drifter buoy was released inside the coverage area of the radar. The HF radar currents, as well as numerical wind data were used to simulate the buoy trajectory using the TESEO oil spill transport model. In order to evaluate the contribution of HF radar currents to trajectory analysis, two simulation alternatives were carried out. In the first one, wind data were used to simulate the motion of the buoy. In the second alternative, surface currents from the HF radar were also taken into account. For each alternative, the model was calibrated by means of the global optimization algorithm SCEM-UA (Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis) in order to obtain the probability density function of the model parameters. The buoy trajectory was computed for 24 h intervals using a Monte Carlo approach based on the results provided in the calibration process. A bivariate kernel estimator was applied to determine the 95% confidence areas. The analysis performed showed that simulated trajectories integrating HF radar currents are more accurate than those obtained considering only wind numerical data. After a 24 h period, the error in the final simulated position improves using HF radar currents. Averaging the information from all the simulated daily periods, the mean search and rescue area calculated using HF radar currents, is reduced by approximately a 62% in comparison with the search area calculated without these data. These results show the positive contribution of HF radar currents for trajectory analysis, and demonstrate that these data combined with atmospheric forecast models, are of value for trajectory analysis of oil spills or floating objects.  相似文献   

20.
Global ocean circulation models usually lack an adequate consideration of high-latitude processes due to a limited model domain or insufficient resolution. Without the processes in key areas of the global thermohaline circulation, the characteristics and flow of deep and bottom waters cannot be modeled realistically. In this study, a high-resolution (~20 km) ocean model focused on the Weddell Sea sector of the Southern Ocean is combined with a low-resolution (2° × 2°) global ocean model applying the state estimation technique. Temperature, salinity, and velocity data on two Weddell Sea sections from the regional model are used as constraints for the large-scale model in addition to satellite altimetry and sea-surface temperatures. The differences between the model with additional constraints and without document that the Weddell Sea circulation exerts significant influence on the course of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current with consequences for Southern Ocean water mass characteristics and the spreading of deep and bottom waters in the South Atlantic. Furthermore, a warming trend in the period 1993–2001 was found in the Weddell Sea and adjacent basins in agreement with float measurements in the upper Southern Ocean. Teleconnections to the North Atlantic are suggested but need further studies to demonstrate their statistical significance.  相似文献   

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