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1.
We realize the algorithm of adaptive statistics of forecasting errors for the assimilation of the climatic fields of temperature
and salinity in the σ-coordinate model of the dynamics of the Black Sea. The principal relations of this algorithm and its
simplified version based on the Kalman filter are presented. The distinctive features of realization of the algorithm specified
by the model are discussed. We also present the results of comparison of the hydrophysical fields of the Black Sea reconstructed
according to the algorithm of adaptive statistics and a simplified scheme of assimilation of the climatic data. It is shown
that the dependence of sources in the transport equations (heat and salt diffusion) on the four-dimensional variances of forecasting
errors and threedimensional measurement errors enables one to reconstruct the mutually adapted climatic parameters of the
sea more exactly. 相似文献
2.
We propose an improvement of the algorithm of joint assimilation of the data on climatic temperature, salinity, and altimetric
sea level in a model of circulation. Unlike the previous works, the variances of the forecast errors of temperature and salinity
and the cross-covariance functions of of the forecast errors of salinity-level and temperature-level depend on the dynamics
of waters. It is shown that the structure of the fields of cross-covariance functions in the upper mixed layer is formed by
the vertical turbulent diffusion of the variances of forecast errors of temperature and salinity. At greater depths, these
statistical characteristics are mainly determined by the vertical advection. We compared the results of calculations with
and without taking into account the dynamics of the statistical characteristics. The analysis of the influence of the dynamics
of these characteristics makes it possible to reconstruct the mutually adapted climatic fields of temperature, salinity, and
horizontal and vertical current velocities in the Black Sea with the assimilation of data in the numerical model in each time
step.
Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 4, pp. 18–31, July–August, 2008. 相似文献
3.
V. V. Knysh R. A. Ibrayev G. K. Korotaev N. V. Inyushina 《Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics》2008,44(2):236-249
We present the results of an analysis of the seasonal variability of current fields in the Caspian Sea, reconstructed by assimilation of climatic temperature and salinity into the primitive-equation model of water circulation on the basis of an algorithm for adaptive statistics of prediction errors. The sources in heat and salt transfer-diffusion equations depend on the spatial and temporal variability of the variances of prediction errors and one-dimensional (in the vertical coordinate) variances of measurement errors for temperature and salinity. The variances of prediction errors are adjusted at the moments of data assimilation in accordance with a simplified Kalman filter. The climatic circulation of waters in the Caspian Sea is shown to be highly varying. The maximum of its intensity over the entire depth is reached in February. The minimum of kinetic energy is observed in April. The currents in deep-sea areas are determined by the balance between wind and baroclinic factors of the formation of circulation with wind currents prevalent. 相似文献
4.
5.
V. V. Knysh G. K. Korotaev S. G. Demyshev V. N. Belokopytov 《Physical Oceanography》2005,15(3):142-160
We compare the thermohaline and dynamic characteristics of the Black Sea reconstructed by using two versions of climatic temperature
and salinity fields:old (1903–1982)and new (1903–2003). The fields are reconstructed with the help of continuous assimilation
of the climatic temperature and salinity in the model. It is shown that the climatic thermohaline fields constructed with
regard for the data of observations for the last 20 yr are characterized by an insignificant elevation of the halocline (pycnocline)in
the winter-spring period and the elevation of the upper boundary of the cold intermediate layer in the spring-summer period.
The intensity of surface geostrophic currents is greater than the same quantity computed on the basis of the old climatic
data for the whole year. The horizontal currents in the sea computed according to the new climatic data are more intense.
__________
Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 3, pp. 11–30, May–June, 2005. 相似文献
6.
V. V. Knysh S. G. Demyshev G. K. Korotaev A. S. Sarkisyan 《Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics》2007,43(3):363-377
A method for combined assimilation of climatic hydrologic fields of temperature, salinity, and the climatic dynamic level of the Black Sea into a model of sea dynamics is proposed. The monthly mean fields of the dynamic sea level were obtained from the results of assimilation of satellite altimetry data into the model. The statistical characteristics of errors in the forecasts of the level, salinity, and temperature were assumed to be proportional to the statistical characteristics of the differences between monthly mean climatic fields of temperature, salinity, and sea level calculated by means of assimilating altimetry observations of the sea level and analogous climatic hydrologic fields. The climatic fields of currents are reconstructed and analyzed. The assimilation of the climatic altimetry level allows the reproduction (in current fields) of quasi-stationary synoptic anticyclonic eddies located along the periphery of the Black Sea Rim Current. 相似文献
7.
S. G. Demyshev V. V. Knysh G. K. Korotaev 《Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics》2006,42(5):555-567
A scheme of a periodic assimilation of climatic temperature and salinity data into a model is proposed. In accordance with the criteria chosen on the basis of numerical experiments, an optimum assimilation period of three hours is set. The proposed method allows a hydrodynamic adaptation of the fields of temperature, salinity, and flow velocity that are close to the climatic ones within the framework of the proposed criteria. The main feature of the adapted fields of vertical flows in the layer 0–700 m is their smooth character and an almost complete absence of small-scale noise. The extreme values of vertical velocity in this layer decrease by almost an order of magnitude as compared to analogous values calculated for the variant of data assimilation with a weak adjustment of fields. 相似文献
8.
We propose a procedure of reconstruction of the continuous (in time) climatic annual behavior of circulation in the Black Sea based on the successive assimilation of the climatic distributions of temperature and salinity in the complete nonlinear model. We use monthly average arrays interpolated for each day of a year by expanding in harmonic functions of time. Various procedures aimed at the assimilation of data are studied by taking into account the variance of measurement errors. Our main attention is given to the analysis of qualitative and quantitative characteristics of vertical motions in the sea depending on the quality of the data and parameters of the model. The main version of calculations is illustrated by the maps of annual variability of the fields of sea level, horizontal currents, and vertical velocity. 相似文献
9.
We analyze the seasonal variability of the climatic hydrophysical fields of the Black Sea reporduced in three numerical experiments
carried out according to the model of circulation. The numerical predictions are performed for a period of 12.5 yr on the
basis of the hydrological data accumulated in 1983–1995. The monthly average climatic fields of the current speed are reconstructed
according to the data on the climatic fields of temperature and salinity by the method of hydrodynamic adaptation (standard).
It is shown that, in prognostic calculations, the seasonal variability of temperature and salinity is qualitatively close
to the “standard” dependence. At the same time, the quantitative difference between the climatic behavior of the model and
the standard dependence may be significant. The annual cycle of the currents is characterized by the intensification of the
Main Black-Sea Current in winter. The structure of the hydrophysical fields of the sea in the model becomes much more realistic
if it is based on the actual hydrological data.
Translated by Peter V. Malyshev and Dmitry V. Malyshev 相似文献
10.
To study the long-term variability of the thermohaline and dynamic characteristics of the Black Sea, we use three versions
of climatic fields, namely, the fields reconstructed in the model according to the old (1903–1982) and new (1903–2003) hydrological
climatic data arrays of temperature and salinity and according to the data of satellite altimetry. The analysis of the altimetry-based
climatic fields confirms the distinctions (established earlier according to the old and new data arrays) in the seasonal variability
of the integral characteristics of temperature and salinity and in the structures of hydrophysical fields in the sea. It is
shown that, in the winter-spring season, the thermohaline fields reconstructed according to the new and altimetry data arrays
are characterized by a small elevation of the halocline (pycnocline) and the upper boundary of the cold intermediate layer.
In all seasons, the altimetry-based surface geostrophic currents contain numerous mesoscale eddies with different signs of
rotation. Moreover, in all seasons, the Rim Current reconstructed according to the altimetry data is characterized by a narrower
jet almost along the entire its length. This jet is especially intense near the coasts of West Anatolia.
__________
Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 4, pp. 3–17, July–August, 2006. 相似文献
11.
V. B. Zalesny A. V. Gusev S. N. Moshonkin 《Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics》2013,49(6):642-658
A numerical primitive-equation model of the hydrodynamics of the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov in σ-coordinates is proposed. The model has a resolution of ～4 × 4 km in horizontal coordinates with 40-σ levels in the vertical and includes the four-dimensional variational initialization of temperature and salinity fields. A numerical initialization algorithm combines splitting methods and adjoint equations. Flow, temperature, sea level, and salinity fields driven by atmospheric forcing are calculated for the year 2008. The calculations are made in a variational initialization — prediction regime. Temperature and salinity fields are initialized at the end of each month. The optimality system includes forward and adjoint transport-diffusion equations for heat and salt that are linearized on the assimilation interval. Results of three numerical experiments with different sets of assimilated data in comparison with the prediction obtained from the forward model are discussed. 相似文献
12.
We study model climatic temperature and salinity fields and the fields of currents in the 350–1000-m layer. The following
specific features are revealed: Colder waters are observed in the regions with anticyclonic vorticity. At the same time, warmer
waters are detected in the regions with cyclonic vorticity. This temperature effect can be explained by the elevation of temperature
with depth below the main pycnocline. In the region of the Sevastopol anticyclone, at depths greater than 500 m, we observe
a zone of cyclonic rotation of waters. Near the Caucasian coast, in the region of Gelendzhik, we reveal a narrow jet current
existing at a depth of 350 m from March till July.
Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 1, pp.3–15, January–February, 2009. 相似文献
13.
The seasonal climatic circulation of the sea reconstructed on the basis of assimilation of new arrays of many-year average
hydrological data in a model is analyzed. Five layers are discovered in the structure of climatic currents in the sea in depth:
the surface Ekman layer (∼ 10 m), a layer with small vertical gradients of the kinetic energy (∼ 10–60 m), a layer with relatively
high vertical gradients of the kinetic energy (∼ 60–150 m), a layer with gradual decrease in the kinetic energy and intensification
(from 250–350 m) of the east cyclonic gyre and Batumi anticyclonic eddy (∼ 150–1000 m), and an abyssal layer characterized
by an almost barotropic velocity (∼ 1000–2000 m). The specific features of the seasonal evolution of currents at these depths
are investigated. It is shown that the key role in the formation of deep-water circulation of the sea is played by the south
east flow, east cyclonic gyre, and Batumi anticyclonic eddy.
__________
Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 6, pp. 28–45, November–December, 2005. 相似文献
14.
利用热带太平洋TAO浮标阵列评估全球高分辨率浪-潮-流耦合模式同化结果 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
In order to evaluate the assimilation results from a global high resolution ocean model, the buoy observations from tropical atmosphere ocean(TAO) during August 2014 to July 2015 are employed. The horizontal resolution of wave-tide-circulation coupled ocean model developed by The First Institute of Oceanography(FIOCOM model) is 0.1°×0.1°, and ensemble adjustment Kalman filter is used to assimilate the sea surface temperature(SST), sea level anomaly(SLA) and Argo temperature/salinity profiles. The simulation results with and without data assimilation are examined. First, the overall statistic errors of model results are analyzed. The scatter diagrams of model simulations versus observations and corresponding error probability density distribution show that the errors of all the observed variables, including the temperature, isotherm depth of 20°C(D20), salinity and two horizontal component of velocity are reduced to some extent with a maximum improvement of 54% after assimilation. Second, time-averaged variables are used to investigate the horizontal and vertical structures of the model results. Owing to the data assimilation, the biases of the time-averaged distribution are reduced more than70% for the temperature and D20 especially in the eastern Pacific. The obvious improvement of D20 which represents the upper mixed layer depth indicates that the structure of the temperature after the data assimilation becomes more close to the reality and the vertical structure of the upper ocean becomes more reasonable. At last,the physical processes of time series are compared with observations. The time evolution processes of all variables after the data assimilation are more consistent with the observations. The temperature bias and RMSE of D20 are reduced by 76% and 56% respectively with the data assimilation. More events during this period are also reproduced after the data assimilation. Under the condition of strong 2014/2016 El Ni?o, the Equatorial Undercurrent(EUC) from the TAO is gradually increased during August to November in 2014, and followed by a decreasing process. Since the improvement of the structure in the upper ocean, these events of the EUC can be clearly found in the assimilation results. In conclusion, the data assimilation in this global high resolution model has successfully reduced the model biases and improved the structures of the upper ocean, and the physical processes in reality can be well produced. 相似文献
15.
V. B. Zalesny V. I. Agoshkov V. P. Shutyaev F. Le Dimet B. O. Ivchenko 《Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics》2016,52(4):431-442
Models and methods of the numerical modeling of ocean hydrodynamics dating back to the pioneering works of A.S. Sarkisyan are considered, with emphasis on the formulation of problems and algorithms of mathematical modeling and the four-dimensional variational assimilation of observational data. An algorithm is proposed for studying the sensitivity of the optimal solution to observational data errors in a seasurface temperature assimilation problem in order to retrieve heat fluxes on the surface. An example of a solution of the optimal problem of the World Ocean hydrodynamics with the assimilation of climatic temperature and salinity observations is offered. 相似文献
16.
We discuss the results of the numerical experiment aimed at the simulation of the behavior of currents and transformations
of the temperature and salt modes in the Sevastopol Bay in January–February 1997. In the numerical analysis, we use actual
data on the velocity and direction of the wind, sea surface temperature, and the discharge of River Chernaya. It is shown
that the circulation and structure of hydrological fields are mainly connected with the direction of the wind, its intensity,
and variability in the course of time. Since the analyzed water area is shallow, the currents inside the bay undergo rapid
transformations (less than for an hour after changes in the wind). At the same time, the transformations of the thermohaline
fields are slower. Due to the inflow of fresh waters of River Chernaya and salt waters from the open sea through the strait,
the structure of thermohaline fields formed in the bay is nonuniform (both in the vertical and horizontal directions). The
distribution of salinity plays the main role in the formation of the vertical stratification, which is natural for the winter
season. Due to the process of freshening of water, a quite high vertical salinity gradient is formed in the upper layer of
the sea. As a result, the process of cooling does not lead to the appearance of convection and inversions of temperature are
formed in the case where warmer waters are located in the bottom layers.
__________
Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 2, pp. 60–76, March–April, 2005. 相似文献
17.
We present the results of analysis of the advection mechanism of replenishment and refreshment of the cold intermediate layer in the Black Sea. The analysis is based on the investigation of the fields of temperature, salinity, density, currents, and the coefficient of vertical turbulent diffusion obtained in the course of prognostic calculations according to the three-dimensional complete model with seasonally variable external fields in boundary conditions. It is discovered that, parallel with winter convection, the cold intermediate layer in the central part of the sea is also replenished and refreshed as a result of the transportation of cold waters formed in the northwest part of the sea by currents.__________Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 6, pp. 17–30, November–December, 2004. 相似文献
18.
We assess validity of a Gaussian error assumption, the basic assumption in data assimilation theory, and propose two kinds
of constraints regarding non-Gaussian statistics. In the mixed water region (MWR) off the east coast of Japan exhibiting complicated
frontal structures, a probability density function (PDF) of subsurface temperature shows double peaks corresponding to the
Kuroshio and Oyashio waters. The complicated frontal structures characterized by the temperature PDF sometimes cause large
innovations, bringing about a non-Gaussianity of errors. It is also revealed that assimilated results with a standard three-dimensional
variational (3DVAR) scheme have some issues in MWR, arising from the non-Gaussianity of errors. The Oyashio water sometimes
becomes unrealistically cold. The double peaks seen in the observed temperature PDF are too smoothed. To improve the assimilated
field in MWR, we introduce two kinds of constraints, J
c1 and J
c2, which model the observed temperature PDF. The constraint J
c1 prevents the unrealistically cold Oyashio water, and J
c2 intends to reproduce the double peaks. The assimilated fields are significantly improved by using these constraints. The
constraint J
c1 effectively reduces the unrealistically cold Oyashio water. The double peaks in the observed temperature PDF are successfully
reproduced by J
c2. In addition, not only subsurface temperature but also whole level temperature and salinity (T–S) fields are improved by
adopting J
c1 and J
c2 to a multivariate 3DVAR scheme with vertical coupled T–S empirical orthogonal function modes. 相似文献
19.
Variability in water temperature, salinity and density was investigated based on field measurements near Anzali Port, in the
Southern Caspian Sea in 2008. Seasonal changes of seawater properties were mainly observed through the upper 100 m layer,
while below this layer seasonal variations of the parameters were minor. Vertical structure of the temperature in the southern
coastal waters of the Caspian Sea is characterized by a significant seasonal thermocline between 20–50 m depths with vertical
variation in temperature about 16°C in midsummer (August). Decrease of the thermocline occurs with the general cooling of
the air and sea surface water, and deepening of the mixed layer during late of autumn and winter. Seasonal averages of the
salinity were estimated in a range of 12.27–12.37 PSU. The structure of thermocline and pycnocline indicated agreement between
changes of temperature and density of seawater. Seasonal pycnocline was observed in position of the thermocline layer. 相似文献
20.
The impact of assimilating Argo data into an initial field on the short-term forecasting accuracy of temper- ature and salinity is quantitatively estimated by using a forecasting system of the western North Pacific, on the base of the Princeton ocean model with a generalized coordinate system （POMgcs）. This system uses a sequential multigrid three-dimensional variational （3DVAR） analysis scheme to assimilate observation da- ta. Two numerical experiments were conducted with and without Argo temperature and salinity profile data besides conventional temperature and salinity profile data and sea surface height anomaly （SSHa） and sea surface temperature （SST） in the process of assimilating data into the initial fields. The forecast errors are estimated by using independent temperature and salinity profiles during the forecasting period, including the vertical distributions of the horizontally averaged root mean square errors （H-RMSEs） and the horizontal distributions of the vertically averaged mean errors （MEs） and the temporal variation of spatially averaged root mean square errors （S-RMSEs）. Comparison between the two experiments shows that the assimila- tion of Argo data significantly improves the forecast accuracy, with 24% reduction of H-RMSE maximum for the temperature, and the salinity forecasts are improved more obviously, averagely dropping of 50% for H-RMSEs in depth shallower than 300 m. Such improvement is caused by relatively uniform sampling of both temperature and salinity from the Argo drifters in time and space. 相似文献