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1.
Walsh AC 《Singapore journal of tropical geography》1984,5(1):73-87
Urbanization trends in Papua New Guinea are analyzed using official data from the 1971 and 1980 censuses. The author suggests that the massive urban population growth rate for 1966-1971 was a figment of post-enumeration miscalculation. However, the data indicate that the annual urban growth rate for the period 1971-1980 was nearly four times higher than the growth rate for the population as a whole. 相似文献
2.
基于SLEUTH模型的东莞市区城市增长模拟研究 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
应用SLEUTH城市增长模型,借助GIS、RS技术,对东莞市区1990-2003年的城市增长过程进行模拟,同时预测2003-2030年城市增长情况。结果表明,SLEUTH模型较好地描述了东莞市区"自下而上"的城市增长模式,在这种增长模式下,未来东莞市区的城市化水平将在10～20 a内达到临界状态。研究结果对于理解东莞市区城市增长的内在规律具有理论和现实指导意义,同时可为政府制定相关决策提供依据。 相似文献
3.
城市拓展对资源消耗的影响程度分析——以长春市为例 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
构建脱钩状态模型和响应程度模型,通过定量研究1995~2010年长春市城市拓展对资源消耗的影响程度,得到以下结论:①长春市城市拓展与资源消耗总体呈现"双增长"特征,城市快速拓展导致的资源消耗及资源环境压力不断增大;②长春市城市拓展与资源消耗始终处于"相对脱钩"状态,且资源消耗增长速度随着城市拓展呈先相对下降、后又相对提升的趋势。在城市拓展规模保持总体稳定增长的情况下,资源消耗变化是影响二者脱钩状态与脱钩程度演化的关键因素;③随着长春市城市拓展规模的不断扩大,其对资源消耗增长的影响程度持续增大,进一步说明城市拓展作为资源消耗的驱动力,其变化是导致长春市城市拓展对资源消耗影响程度增大的重要推动因素。 相似文献
4.
Modeling urban land-use dynamics in a fast developing city using the modified logistic cellular automaton with a patch-based simulation strategy 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Yimin Chen Xiaoping Liu Bin Ai 《International journal of geographical information science》2014,28(2):234-255
Cellular automata (CA) have been used to understand the complexity and dynamics of cities. The logistic cellular automaton (Logistic-CA) is a popular urban CA model for simulating urban growth based on logistic regression. However, this model usually employs a cell-based simulation strategy without considering the spatial evolution of land-use patches. This drawback largely constrains the Logistic-CA for simulating realistic urban development. We proposed a Patch-Logistic-CA to deal with this problem by incorporating a patch-based simulation strategy into the conventional cell-based Logistic-CA. The Patch-Logistic-CA differentiates new developments into spontaneous growth and organic growth, and uses a moving-window approach to simulate the evolution of urban patches. The Patch-Logistic-CA is tested through the simulation of urban growth in Guangzhou, China, during 2005–2012. The cell-based Logistic-CA was also implemented using the same set of data to make a comparison. The simulation results reflect that the Patch-Logistic-CA has slightly lower cell-level agreement than the cell-based Logistic-CA. However, visual inspection of the results reveals that the cell-based Logistic-CA fails to reflect the actual patterns of urban growth, because this model can only simulate urbanized cells around the edges of initial urban patches. Actually, the pattern-level similarities of the Patch-Logistic-CA are over 18% higher than those of the cell-based Logistic-CA. This indicates that the Patch-Logistic-CA has much better performance of simulating actual development patterns than the cell-based Logistic-CA. In addition, the Patch-Logistic-CA can correctly simulate the fractal structure of actual urban development patterns. By varying the control parameters, the Patch-Logistic-CA can also be used to assist urban planning through the exploration of different development alternatives. 相似文献
5.
Analyzing the spatial determinants of urban growth is helpful for urban planning and management. In a case study of urban agglomeration around Hangzhou Bay (China), four landscape metrics (total area, total edge, landscape shape index and aggregation index) were used to describe the landscape characteristics of the urban growth at two block scales (4 km and 7 km) during two temporal intervals (1994–2003 and 2003–2009). Spatial autocorrelation regression was employed to identify the geographic determinants of the urban landscape changes. The results indicated that the urban landscapes became more dominant, unstable, irregular and compact, especially in the centers of cities. These changes exhibited notable spatial variations and spatial autocorrelation at the two block scales. The distances to national and provincial roads influenced the urban pattern changes. The impacts of the urban centers on urban expansion gradually declined with the urbanization progress. The slope factor was the most influential determinant of urban growth. Our study emphasized the importance of considering the autocorrelation and scale effects when analyzing the determinants of urban growth. These findings may help land planners create policies and strategies for future urban development. 相似文献
6.
利用四期TM数据和GIS技术,分析了近20年南京城市边缘区城镇用地格局动态变化:城镇用地格局变化拐点在1994年和2000年,空间上表现出增长“热极”与“热带”;城镇用地格局变化阶段性是经济社会驱动过程演化阶段的反映,其空间特征是区域社会经济物质载体演化的体现,开发区是城镇用地增长首要来源,新市区与大学城是其增长核心和新形式,交通路网对其产生空间导向;但城镇用地增长相对处于规模扩张阶段,引致自然景观破碎化、社区“空壳”现象、大学城“圈地运动”耕地浪费严重。 相似文献
7.
土地生态安全是一个地区生存和发展的核心。以新疆第二大城市库尔勒市为研究靶区,运用三角模型,建立评价指标体系,通过熵权法计算各指标的权重,分别计算得到EI、NSI、NREI三组综合指数,在此基础上计算出各指标的影响度。从时间序列上对“十二五”规划期间内库尔勒市土地生态安全状况进行评价,并对其主要影响因子进行分析。结果表明：（1）库尔勒市土地生态安全综合指数呈现极不安全-较不安全的趋势。（2）影响库尔勒市土地生态安全的限制性因子主要是人口城市化水平、一般工业固体废物产生量以及排水管道密度。综上所述,库尔勒市土地生态安全现状极不安全,此研究将为改善生态状况提供科学依据。 相似文献
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9.
Anthony Knapp 《Urban geography》2013,34(1):53-85
Abstract This article explores Houston's two Chinatowns within the context of the city's recent urban reinvestment and revitalization initiatives. It provides a history of the Chinatowns and examines their changing condition during the years that Houston was promoting ethnic diversity and urban revival. The analysis is framed within the growth machine perspective, as initially explored in Houston by Joe Feagin, and later by Jan Lin and Igor Vojnovic. Houston's late-20th-century urban redevelopment initiatives occurred during a period in history when Houston's Chinese entrepreneurs lost their influence over the local growth machine. The eventual outcome was the erasure of Houston's downtown Chinatown and the displacement of its residents from their lucrative urban core location. The disappearance of Old Chinatown and other urban ethnic neighborhoods—including Little Saigon and Freedmen's Town—from the urban core all took place as the Houston media and public were celebrating diversity, pluralism, and ethnicity in the city. 相似文献
10.
Sallnow J 《Soviet geography》1989,30(9):670-683
"This article provides a general overview of trends in urban-rural population change and evolution of the settlement system in the Soviet Far East since 1966, incorporating data published in the recent national statistical yearbooks and the preliminary 1989 census report....Total population in the Soviet Far East increased from 5,435,000 in 1966 to 7,941,000 by January 12, 1989, with the share of the urban population now comprising over three-quarters of the total. Migration patterns into and out of the region are discussed and cities planned for expansion are identified." 相似文献
11.
城市扩张是反映经济增长的重要指标,但随意的城市扩张也带来了严重的社会经济问题、环境问题以及城市土地管理问题。在这个背景下,理解城市扩张的过程对于指导城市的可持续增长具有重要意义。本研究采用基于遥感影像的监督分类方法,分析了甘达基流域内的两个大城市—博卡拉和巴拉普尔1990–2018年的城市用地变化。结果表明:在过去的28年,博卡拉和巴拉普尔的城市面积分别显著扩张了300%和近500%。人口增长、城市基础设施和便利的生活方式引起周边地区向城市的人口迁移,是造成本研究区城市扩张的主要原因。除此之外,不断变化的城市定义和城市边界的扩张是造成城市快速扩张的关键因素。由于上述两个城市拥有高水平的商业活动以及现代化的设施,未来城市规模可能继续扩大。应当通过城市规划和政策减少随意的城市扩张,从而实现城市的可持续发展。 相似文献
12.
以海伦市1986年,1995年和2007年3期TM影像为基础数据,在RS与GIS技术支持下,运用马尔科夫转移矩阵、单一土地利用类型动态度和景观空间格局分析方法对沿海市土地利用变化、景观格局特征进行研究,并分析了土地利用变化的驱动力。结果表明,①旱田和水田面积一直处于增长状态,增长速率由快变缓,主要由林地、草地和未利用土地转换而来。②林地、草地和未利用土地面积持续下降;城镇建设用地和农村建设用地的面积一直保持着增加态势,增长速率由缓变快,使得土地利用强度有所上升。③景观格局变化主要表现为,优势度整体上升、景观多样性整体呈现下降的趋势,城乡建设用地的类斑近圆指数最大,林地、未利用土地和水域斑块破碎度增加。④人为因素中的人口增长、经济发展、政府生态环境保护和农业可持续发展的政策在土地利用变化中起重要作用。该研究对于合理利用土地资源和农业可持续发展具有重要意义。 相似文献
13.
依据城市生态系统健康发展与生物免疫系统的相似性,利用安徽省统计资料数据,建立科学完善的评价指标体系,运用生物免疫模型研究了2005—2014年安徽省城市生态系统承载力和社会经济发展压力的变化趋势,并判断城市化发展的可持续状态。结果表明:1)安徽省城市生态系统承载力水平呈前期下降后期增长的趋势;城市生态系统自然承载力指数变化大致与城市生态系统综合承载力指数变化趋势相似;2005—2014年,安徽省城市生态获得性承载力指数持续上升。2)安徽省资源消耗指数、环境污染指数和城市生态系统压力指数均呈缓慢增长趋势,压力持续增加可能会导致城市承载力超载。3)除2006和2013年安徽省城市生态系统承载力处于协调发展状态外,其余年份城市生态系统变化率小于社会经济压力变化率,城市生态系统承载力发展不可持续。由于获得性承载力的滞后性,未来还应重点考虑提高资源利用率、增大生态弹性系数和改变经济发展模式来实现人地关系协调发展。 相似文献
14.
姆万扎是坦桑尼亚第二大城市，也是非洲发展最快的城市之一，近年来城市蔓延问题日益凸显。本文以遥感解译的姆万扎2000、2010、2015年3期土地利用数据为基础，运用GIS空间分析、用地增长弹性系数、景观指数等方法和指标，并结合实地调研和关键知情人访谈，分析了姆万扎2000年以来城市蔓延的空间特征及影响因素。分析结果表明：1）2000年~2015年间姆万扎城市以非正式聚落形式快速蔓延，建成区扩展速度和扩展强度迅速增加；蔓延主要占用裸地，其次是植被，侵占植被的速度迅速加快；2）城市蔓延主要沿3条主干道进行，属于“廊道式为主，填充式为辅”的扩展模式，形成指状的城市空间形态；建成区紧凑度逐渐下降，形状变得更加不规则；3）城市蔓延的主要区域和整体范围都在扩大，距离衰减特征明显,沿东南方向扩展强度最高；4）城市蔓延主要受到人口与经济增长、交通条件改善、土地制度问题及有效规划缺失等因素的影响。加强次干路和地方道路的规划和建设，制定及时、有效、符合地方背景的城市规划，是未来姆万扎控制城市蔓延的可能途径。 相似文献
15.
Urban construction land has relatively high human activity and high carbon emissions. Research on urban construction land prediction under carbon peak and neutrality goals (hereafter “dual carbon” goals) is important for territorial spatial planning. This study analyzed quantitative relationships between carbon emissions and urban construction land, and then modified the construction land demand prediction model. Thereafter, an integrated model for urban construction land demand prediction and spatial pattern simulation under “dual carbon” goals was developed, where urban construction land suitability was modified based on carbon source and sink capacity of different land-use types. Using Guangzhou as a case study, the integrated model was validated and applied to simulate the spatiotemporal dynamics of its urban construction land during 2030-2060 under baseline development and “dual carbon” goals scenarios. The simulation results showed that Guangzhou’s urban construction land expanded rapidly until 2030, with the spatial pattern not showing an intensive development trend. Guangzhou’s urban construction land expansion slowed during 2030-2060, with an average annual growth rate of 0.2%, and a centralized spatial pattern trend. Under the “dual carbon” goal scenario, Guangzhou’s urban construction land evolved into a polycentric development pattern in 2030. Compared with the baseline development scenario, urban construction land expansion in Guangzhou during 2030-2060 is slower, with an average annual growth rate of only 0.1%, and the polycentric development pattern of urban construction land was more prominent. Furthermore, land maintenance and growth, that is, a carbon sink, is more obvious under the “dual carbon” goals scenario, with the forest land area nearly 10.6% higher than that under the baseline development scenario. The study of urban construction land demand prediction and spatial pattern simulation under “dual carbon” goals provides a scientific decision-making support tool for territorial spatial planning, aiding in quantifying territorial spatial planning. 相似文献
16.
In a growing body of literature on urbanization in China, scholars have emphasized the proactive role of the Chinese local state in urban land expansion. Drawing upon official land use change data from 1998 to 2008, this study investigates the relationship between the hierarchical structure of the Chinese urban administrative system and urban land expansion. We find that urban land expansion coincides with administrative hierarchy, and cities with higher administrative levels (ranked by central government) tend to expand more rapidly while controlling for other economic and demographic drivers of urban expansion. Spatial regime models reveal that economic and demographic drivers of urban growth are also sensitive to a city's administrative rank. By quantifying the link between a city's rank and urban land expansion, we conclude that considering the hierarchical structure of the Chinese cities will result in a fuller understanding of the rapid urban growth in China. 相似文献
17.
南京城市贫困空间调查与分析 总被引：38，自引：1，他引：37
从城市社会地理学的角度,运用城市社会保障资料和典型社区问卷调查和访谈,对南京市城市贫困阶层进行了空间分析,并探讨了产生这一格局的原因和机制。从南京的实例不难看出,中国当代的城市贫困空间,既不同于国外城市的棚户区和边缘化特点,也不同于中国农村贫困户相对集中分布,具有较明显的分散性特征。形成这种城市贫困空间结构的动力机制主要在于中国城市近50年的城市住房分配制度造成了以单位制为基础的社会阶层混合居住的局面。随着城市住房体制改革的逐步完成和住房商品化和私有化进程,中国城市的贫困空间也将呈现相对集中分布的趋势,即贫困家庭向地价低廉的城郊结合带集中,而在城市中心区的外围也将由于房地产开发无法获利而造成旧区的衰退,从而形成贫民区。 相似文献
18.
In the present study, spatio-temporal urban sprawl and land consumption patterns were analysed in seven capital cities located in the Himalayan region during 1972, 1991 and 2015 using multi-temporal satellite images. The study exhibits that capital Himalayan cities experienced rapid growth (830.92%) with high population increase (333.45%) during the observation period (1972–2015). The significant urban growth was observed in the cities of western and middle Himalayan region viz., Srinagar (9.36 km2–142.19 km2), Kathmandu (11.38 km2–92.58 km2) and Dehradun (4.1 km2–50.09 km2) in the higher altitudes due to remarkable increase in the population (0.5–1 million persons) during 1972–2015. On the contrary, Itanagar (7.19 km2), Gangtok (7.09 km2), Shimla (3.04 km2) and Thimphu (2.93 km2) observed less urban growth with moderate to low population growth (i.e., 0.05 to 0.15 million persons). The Shannon entropy based study exhibits that the cities viz., Kathmandu, Gangtok and Itanagar observed comparatively more dispersed urban growth during later period (1991–2015) as compared to the previous period (1972–1991) whereas, the remaining cities observed comparatively less dispersed urban growth during later period. The temporal land consumption pattern exhibits low density urban growth in Srinagar, Dehradun and Kathmandu, as observed with decrease in population density and increasing land consumption during 1972–2015 as compared to other cities, wherein urban densification was evident with increase in population density and decrease in land consumption. The cities in central and western Himalayan region observed high urban growth as compared to cities in eastern Himalayan region. The result shows that the capital cities contributes insignificant proportion (0.5%; 314 km2) of urban area in Himalayan region and accommodating large (ca. 4 million) population during 2015. The study indicates unplanned and haphazard growth in all capital Himalayan cities, leading towards urban densification as well as dispersion in the periphery with varied pattern and intensity. The specific trends and patterns of urban and population growth are governed by geographical as well as socio-economic-political factors at local to regional scale. The high population pressure induced higher risk to the urban residents as well as constrained urban growth over higher vulnerable zones. The study necessitates implementation of suitable urban planning methods considering socio-economic and physico-cultural characteristics of the region. 相似文献
19.
通过改进引力模型和地缘系数,测算长江中游城市群先行政治、经济增长极的引力,探究潜在增长极的时空演化格局。结果表明：1）长江中游城市群潜在发展城市中心性分布不均,湖南、湖北、江西省分别呈“高值均衡化”“双核心化”“单核心化”特征。2）绝对地缘系数区域差异显著,湖南、江西两省具有“中心低、四周高”的特点,3个城市子群内部联系更多,存在省域行政切割现象;最佳地缘系数呈“双峰”型,受城市地缘政治引力影响较大的城市发展情况稍好于受经济引力影响较大的城市。3）潜在增长城市“边缘性”特征明显,集中于城市群周边,重心在西南方。结合城市发展潜力与城市群协调发展的现实需要,明确株洲、襄阳和九江3个一级增长极以及衡阳、宜昌和新余3个二级潜在增长极。 相似文献
20.
Land expansion of mountain cities in China is not systematically studied yet. This study identified 55 major mountain cities at and above prefecture level, and analyzed the land expansion characteristics and driving forces, based on visually interpreted data from TM images in 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2015. From 1990 to 2015, total built-up land area of the mountain cities increased by 3.87 times, 5.56% per year. The urban land growth was apparently accelerated after 2000, from 4.35% per year during 1990–2000 increased to 6.47% during 2000–2010 and 6.2% during 2010–2015. Compared to the urban population growth, the urban land expansion rate was 44% higher. As a result, the urban land area per capita increased, but it was still within the government control target, and also was much lower than the average of all cities in China. Urban development policy, changes to administrative divisions, GDP and population growth, and road construction were identified as the major driving forces of land expansion. Terrain conditions were not found a relevance to the urban land expansion rate during 1990–2015, but had a significant impact on the layout and shape, and also probably on the urban land efficiency. 相似文献