共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 31 毫秒
1.
A spatially explicit degree-day model was used to evaluate the risk of Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) transmission by mosquitoes
to humans and livestock within five target states in the continental United States: California, Minnesota, Nebraska, New York,
and Texas. A geographic information system was used to model potential virus transmission based on a 12-day moving window
assessment of the extrinsic incubation period theorized for RVFV in the United States. Risk of potential virus transmission
in each state was spatially evaluated on a 10-km grid using average historical daily temperature data from 1994 to 2003. The
highest levels of transmission risk occur in California and Texas, with parts of these states at risk of RVFV transmission
for up to 8 months per year. Northern Minnesota, central New York, and most of coastal and high-elevation California are at
low to null risk. Risk of impact to the livestock industry is greatest in California, Texas, and Nebraska. A standard global
climate model was used to evaluate future risk in the year 2030 in Nebraska, and showed an increase of transmission risk days
from approximately 3 to 4 months per year. 相似文献
2.
The present study examined the influence of climate change on the spread of West Nile virus (WNV) in Canada among American crows (Corvus brachyrhynchos) by first identifying the significant climatic and environmental determinants of positive WNV cases in American crow specimens from 2009 to 2013. Using this information, we projected climate change scenarios on the potential spread of WNV in American crow species in Canada for three time periods: 2015–2039, 2040–2069, and 2070–2099. Using bird specimen, meteorological and land-use data, the statistical association between positive WNV cases in American crows and the environment was assessed by means of a general linear mixed model. Statistical results revealed that temperature and precipitation were significantly related to positive cases of WNV in American crows. Thus, climate change projections of summer mean temperature averages were projected for the three time periods. Climate change scenarios were created and imported into Quantum Geographic Information System (QGIS) and an algorithm was applied using the raster calculator to spatially delineate current and future areas of risk. Spatial analyses revealed that increased warming in the near future may increase the latitudinal extension of WNV in American crows in Canada. 相似文献
3.
度日模型在冰川与积雪研究中的应用进展 总被引：19，自引：6，他引：13
度日模型是基于冰川与积雪消融和气温,尤其是冰雪表面的正积温之间的线性关系建立的.度日模型已广泛应用于北欧、阿尔卑斯山、格陵兰冰盖、青藏高原等地区的冰雪消融、冰川物质平衡及对气候敏感性响应、冰川动力模型以及冰雪融水径流模拟等的研究中.度日模型尽管是对冰雪表面消融能量平衡这一复杂过程的简化描述,但在流域尺度上,通常可以获取类似于能量平衡模型的输出结果.度日模型也有其不足之处,仍需进一步的改进与完善. 相似文献
4.
Cities are not only major contributors to global climate change but also stand at the forefront of climate change impact. Quantifying and assessing the risk potentially induced by climate change has great significance for cities to undertake positive climate adaptation and risk prevention. However, most of the previous studies focus on global, national or regional dimensions, only a few have attempted to examine climate change risk at an urban scale and even less in the case of a recent literature review. As a result, a quantitative assessment of climate change risk for cities remains highly challenging. To fill this gap, the article makes a critical review of the recent literature on urban-scale climate change risk assessment, and classifies them into four major categories of studies which jointly constitute a stepwise modelling chain from global climate change towards urban-scale risk assessment. On this basis, the study summarizes the updated research progresses and discusses the major challenges to be overcome for the seamless coupling of climate simulation between different scales, the reproduction of compound climate events, the incorporation of non-market and long-lasting impacts and the representation of risk transmission insides or beyond a city. Furthermore, future directions to advance quantitative assessment of urban-scale climate change risk are highlighted, with fresh insights into improving study methodology, enriching knowledge of climate change impact on city, enhancing abundance and accessibility to data, and exploring the best practice to provide city-specific climate risk service. 相似文献
5.
Cities are not only major contributors to global climate change but also stand at the forefront of climate change impact. Quantifying and assessing the risk potentially induced by climate change has great significance for cities to undertake positive climate adaptation and risk prevention. However, most of the previous studies focus on global, national or regional dimensions, only a few have attempted to examine climate change risk at an urban scale and even less in the case of a recent literature review. As a result, a quantitative assessment of climate change risk for cities remains highly challenging. To fill this gap, the article makes a critical review of the recent literature on urban-scale climate change risk assessment, and classifies them into four major categories of studies which jointly constitute a stepwise modelling chain from global climate change towards urban-scale risk assessment. On this basis, the study summarizes the updated research progresses and discusses the major challenges to be overcome for the seamless coupling of climate simulation between different scales, the reproduction of compound climate events, the incorporation of non-market and long-lasting impacts and the representation of risk transmission insides or beyond a city. Furthermore, future directions to advance quantitative assessment of urban-scale climate change risk are highlighted, with fresh insights into improving study methodology, enriching knowledge of climate change impact on city, enhancing abundance and accessibility to data, and exploring the best practice to provide city-specific climate risk service. 相似文献
6.
Cities are not only major contributors to global climate change but also stand at the forefront of climate change impact. Quantifying and assessing the risk potentially induced by climate change has great significance for cities to undertake positive climate adaptation and risk prevention. However, most of the previous studies focus on global, national or regional dimensions, only a few have attempted to examine climate change risk at an urban scale and even less in the case of a recent literature review. As a result, a quantitative assessment of climate change risk for cities remains highly challenging. To fill this gap, the article makes a critical review of the recent literature on urban-scale climate change risk assessment, and classifies them into four major categories of studies which jointly constitute a stepwise modelling chain from global climate change towards urban-scale risk assessment. On this basis, the study summarizes the updated research progresses and discusses the major challenges to be overcome for the seamless coupling of climate simulation between different scales, the reproduction of compound climate events, the incorporation of non-market and long-lasting impacts and the representation of risk transmission insides or beyond a city. Furthermore, future directions to advance quantitative assessment of urban-scale climate change risk are highlighted, with fresh insights into improving study methodology, enriching knowledge of climate change impact on city, enhancing abundance and accessibility to data, and exploring the best practice to provide city-specific climate risk service. 相似文献
7.
Cities are not only major contributors to global climate change but also stand at the forefront of climate change impact. Quantifying and assessing the risk potentially induced by climate change has great significance for cities to undertake positive climate adaptation and risk prevention. However, most of the previous studies focus on global, national or regional dimensions, only a few have attempted to examine climate change risk at an urban scale and even less in the case of a recent literature review. As a result, a quantitative assessment of climate change risk for cities remains highly challenging. To fill this gap, the article makes a critical review of the recent literature on urban-scale climate change risk assessment, and classifies them into four major categories of studies which jointly constitute a stepwise modelling chain from global climate change towards urban-scale risk assessment. On this basis, the study summarizes the updated research progresses and discusses the major challenges to be overcome for the seamless coupling of climate simulation between different scales, the reproduction of compound climate events, the incorporation of non-market and long-lasting impacts and the representation of risk transmission insides or beyond a city. Furthermore, future directions to advance quantitative assessment of urban-scale climate change risk are highlighted, with fresh insights into improving study methodology, enriching knowledge of climate change impact on city, enhancing abundance and accessibility to data, and exploring the best practice to provide city-specific climate risk service. 相似文献
8.
Xiaoyan Wang Tao Yang Bin Yong Valentina Krysanova Pengfei Shi Zhenya Li Xudong Zhou 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2018,77(12):465
Climate change is expected to have substantial impacts on flow regime in the Upper Yellow River (UYR) basin that is one of the most important biodiversity hotspots in the world. These impacts will most possibly exert negative effects on the habitat availability for riverine species. Thus, it is necessary to understand the alteration of river flow regime under climate scenarios. In this paper, we use the modified hydrological model HBV in conjunction with three general circulation models under three representative concentration pathways (RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5) to address changes in flow regime under climate change for the UYR basin in the mid-term (2050s) and end-term (2080s) of the twenty-first century. Flow regime is quantified using the Indicators of hydrological alteration approach. Thereafter, the potential threats to riverine ecosystem in the UYR basin are identified based on the projected alterations of various flow characteristics and their ecological influences. The results showed that the magnitude of monthly flow would increase during the dry period. The date of the annual 1-day minimum streamflow will likely shift toward earlier time under different scenarios, and significant increases in magnitude of annual minimum flow of different durations were detected under both RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios in the 2080s. In addition, assessments of the modification degree of the overall flow regime revealed that climate change would remarkably modify (medium level) the overall flow regime in the UYR basin, particularly by the end of the twenty-first century or under the high emission scenarios. Besides, destruction of habitat and reduced availability of food induced by substantially increased hydrological instability in the 2080s would make two endangered fishes more vulnerable in the UYR basin. These findings provide insights into potential adaptive countermeasures for water resource management and environmental system restoration in the Upper Yellow River. 相似文献
9.
We identify and discuss ways to use existing information on the thermal ecology of freshwater fishes to assess the potential impact of climate change on wild populations of these organisms. Two primary questions are identified: (i) how do aquatic habitats change in response to atmospheric climate change? (ii) how do fish respond to habitat change at both the individual and population levels? In lakes, climate warming will lead to higher surface water temperatures, longer ice-free periods, and longer periods of thermal stratification. In rivers, climate warming will lead to higher groundwater temperatures with corresponding increases in both summer and winter temperatures, from headwaters to mouth. We describe several methods for predicting the biological effects of these changes in habitat. We examine the use of bioenergetic models to predict the impact of climate change on the growth of individual fish. We examine the use of thermal habitat models to assess the impact of climate change on population abundance. We examine the use of life cycle models to assess the impact of climate change on the zoogeographic distribution of species. Finally, we identify new research required to further develop these methods. 相似文献
10.
Future development and climate change pose potentially serious threats to estuarine fish populations around the world. We
examined how habitat suitability for delta smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus), a state and federally protected species, might be affected by changes in outflow in the San Francisco Estuary due to future
development and climate change. Forty years of sampling data collected during fall from 1967 to 2008 were examined to define
abiotic habitat suitability for delta smelt as a function of salinity and water transparency, and to describe long-term trends
in habitat conditions. The annual habitat index we developed, which incorporated both quantity and quality of habitat, decreased
by 78% over the study period. Future habitat index values under seven different development and climate change scenarios,
representing a range of drier and wetter possibilities, were predicted using a model which related estuarine outflow to the
habitat index. The results suggested that each of the scenarios would generally lead to further declines in delta smelt habitat
across all water year types. Recovery targets for delta smelt will be difficult to attain if the modeled habitat conditions
are realized. 相似文献
11.
Q. Liu H. Yu L. Liang F. Ping X. Xia X. Mou J. Liang 《International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology》2017,14(3):509-520
Climate change alters ecohydrological processes on different temporal and spatial scales. The aim of this study was to estimate ecological instream flow requirements (EIFR) under climate change impacts and to ascertain optimum flow magnitude to maintain the health of river ecosystems. We used the Mann–Kendall test, the River2D Hydrodynamic model, and the frequency-weighted usable area (FWUA) model on an annual scale in the Juma River to investigate changes in EIFRs caused by climate change. Findings indicated that: (1) between 1956 and 2005, annual instream flow in the Juma River exhibited an abrupt downward trend (in 1981); (2) variation in instream flow governed the area of available fish habitat, and degrees of change for low flow threshold values and low and high FWUA threshold almost exclusively occurred in descending sequential order from winter, spring, autumn, and summer; (3) changes in hydrological regimes influenced both the quantity and quality of physical habitat area, contributing greater to quality than to the distribution of area of physical habitat for Pseudorasbora parva. Climate change, reflected in the changes in EIFR and the area of optimum physical habitat, has dramatically influenced ecological structure and function, even in the small river system investigated for this study. Findings indicated that more rational measures should be put into practice to help address climate change. 相似文献
12.
历史时期气候变化对社会发展的影响与人类适应问题,是当前全球变化领域的研究热点之一。近年来,在利用丰富的历史文献资料研究中国历史时期(特别是过去2000年时段)气候变化与人类社会相互作用的过程机理方面取得了一系列新成果。本文将其归纳为3个方面: 理论上,构建了基于粮食安全的气候影响传递过程分析框架;方法上,实现了服务于气候变化影响研究的、基于语义差异的历史社会经济序列定量重建;科学认识上,总结出“冷抑暖扬”而又福祸相依的宏观韵律。在此基础上,对未来研究需要进一步深化的方向进行了展望。 相似文献
13.
The main objectives of the current work are (1) to determine historic pattern of shoreline changes (erosion and accretion)
along the north coast of the Nile Delta, (2) to present a future view on what to be expected regarding climate change impacts,
sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios, expected land losses and alteration of some soil characteristics (3) to recognize negative
impacts of SLR on the Nile Delta coast and (4) to assess and suggest protection measures. The current investigation was conducted
using the advanced techniques of remote sensing and geographic information system. The investigated area with 394 measured
locations is located along the northern coast of the Nile Delta between Alexandria and ElTina plain in Sinai peninsula exactly
between 29°20′ and 32°40′ E and 29°54′ and 31°35′ N with the minimum erosion values of 1.11 m2, maximum of 6,044,951.64 m2 and total of 16.02 km2. On the other hand, 177 sites showed minimum accretion values of 0.05 m2, maximum of 2,876,855.86 m2 and total of 13.19 km2. SLR was determined by applying the quadrant equation for 10-year intervals using 1990 as the base year. Mediterranean SLR
along the Nile Delta coast could be estimated considering three different scenarios (low 0.20 m, medium 0.50 m, and high 0.90 m).
Impacts of SLR are divided into (1) primary and (2) secondary impacts. Over the coming decades, the Nile Delta will face greater
threat due to SLR and land subsidence as well. Regarding climate change and its impacts on soil characteristics, rapid increase
in salinity values during the former three decades were found. This increase may be due to the intrusion of salty water of
the Mediterranean. On the other hand, organic matter content decreased due to higher temperature, especially during the summer
season. Some protection measures were assessed and suggested to combat or tackle SLR. 相似文献
14.
Satiprasad Sahoo Anirban Dhar Anupam Debsarkar Amlanjyoti Kar 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2018,77(9):341
The present study focuses on an assessment of the impact of future water demand on the hydrological regime under land use/land cover (LULC) and climate change scenarios. The impact has been quantified in terms of streamflow and groundwater recharge in the Gandherswari River basin, West Bengal, India. dynamic conversion of land use and its effects (Dyna-CLUE) and statistical downscaling model (SDSM) are used for quantifying the future LULC and climate change scenarios, respectively. Physical-based semi-distributed model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used for estimating future streamflow and spatiotemporally distributed groundwater recharge. Model calibration and validation have been performed using discharge data (1990–2016). The impacts of LULC and climate change on hydrological variables are evaluated with three scenarios (for the years 2030, 2050 and 2080). Temperature Vegetation Dyrness Index (TVDI) and evapotranspiration (ET) are considered for estimation of water-deficit conditions in the river basin. Exceedance probability and recurrence interval representation are considered for uncertainty analysis. The results show increased discharge in case of monsoon season and decreased discharge in case of the non-monsoon season for the years 2030 and 2050. However, a reverse trend is obtained for the year 2080. The overall increase in groundwater recharge is visible for all the years. This analysis provides valuable information for the irrigation water management framework. 相似文献
15.
Climate change will have major impacts in the Great Lakes region of North America. Particularly vulnerable are shallow freshwater
estuaries, such as Lake Michigan’s Green Bay, located in the north-eastern part of the State of Wisconsin. Green Bay and the
Lower Fox River, its major tributary, were considered to be severely polluted as early as 1925. As a result of large expenditures
of money and a major research effort that has been conducted over the past 40 years or more, some progress has been made toward
the restoration of ecosystem integrity. However, work remains, and within this context, potential climate change impacts pose
additional challenges. We discuss in this paper a methodology that can be used to assess climate change impacts on ecosystems,
and describe an application to the Green Bay ecosystem. The methodology employs numerical methods to evaluate the inputs from
scientific, policy, and management experts who are knowledgeable about the ecosystem under study. The Green Bay ecosystem
application reveals that runoff from agriculture and urban sources, already a major ecosystem stressor, will be exacerbated
in the future as a result of climate change impacts. 相似文献
16.
Shi Peijun Wang Aihui Sun Fubao Li Ning Ye Tao Xu Wei Wang Jing&#x ai Yang Jianping Zhou Hongjian 《地球科学进展》2016,31(8):775-781
Global climate change featured with warming has created serious challenge to world sustainable development and human security. It has become an important consensus of the international society to assess global change risk at the global scale and carry out tailored governance and risk-based adaptation. National Key Research and Development Program “Study on global change population and economic system risk forming mechanism and assessment” aims at quantitatively predicting future global climate change and population and economic system exposure and vulnerability change, developing global change population and economic system risk assessment model based on complex system dynamics, synthesizing risk assessment model with proprietary intellectual property rights, assess global change population and economic system risk of the near and mid future at the global scale, and compiling the atlas of global change population and economic system risk. The outcomes intend to serve the participation of global risk governance and international climate negotiation, and to provide scientific support to the implementation of international disaster risk reduction strategy. 相似文献
17.
Niche models applied in the context of future climate change predict that as regional temperatures increase, the distribution of tropical species will shift poleward. While range expansions have been documented for a number of species, there is limited information on the ecological impacts of shifts on native species. Recently, abundances of tropically-associated gray snapper (Lutjanus griseus) and lane snapper (Lutjanus synagris) have increased in seagrass nurseries in the northern Gulf of Mexico (GOM), concurrent with regional increases in sea surface temperature. We investigated effects of increased abundances of these species on abundance and growth of pinfish (Lagodon rhomboides), the dominant native species. Because juvenile pinfish and snappers share common prey, predators, and habitat, the high degree of niche overlap suggests an equally high potential for competition. We used a multiple before–after control impact design to determine whether increased snapper abundances significantly affected abundance or growth of pinfish. Trawl surveys at six locations in the northern GOM in summer and fall 2010 were used to calculate pinfish and snapper abundances. We identified three locations with high snapper abundances and three locations with no snapper and compared pinfish abundance and otolith-determined growth rates in these locations before and after snapper recruitment. Paired t tests and two-way analysis of variance revealed no significant differences in pinfish abundance or growth in the presence of snappers compared to locations and seasons without snappers. We conclude that range expansions of tropically associated snappers have had no significant effect on abundance or growth of native pinfish in northern GOM seagrass habitats. 相似文献
18.
近百年来全球气候呈现以变暖为主要特征的显著变化,并且未来气温将继续上升,降水模式也会发生改变。从气候变化对湿地水文水资源的影响、气候变化影响下湿地水文与生态的相互作用过程以及湿地生态水文模型等3个方面,对国内外相关研究动态和发展趋势进行了总结分析。从中发现,当前全球气候背景下的湿地生态水文学正在从单一湿地生态水文过程为主要对象,发展成为以研究气候-水文-生态三者相互作用机制为主要内容的综合性、交叉性学科。现关于气候变化影响下水文-生态之间的关系多集中于单向作用的研究,特别是水文过程对植被的影响研究较多,缺乏对气候变化影响下湿地水文过程与生态过程相互作用机理的全面认识。气候变化对湿地生态水文的影响机制研究已经成为水文学研究亟待解决的科学问题,而基于物理机制的湿地生态水文模型,逐渐成为预测未来气候变化下湿地生态水文响应的重要工具。 相似文献
19.
中国西部生态环境变化与对策建议 总被引：74，自引：6，他引：74
中国西部地区生态环境的历史演变过程与未来可能变化趋势是科学界面对的一大难题,正确认识西部地区生态环境的演变过程与变化趋势,是西部地区社会经济可持续发展必须面对的课题,是正确制定西部大开发战略方针的重要科学基础。依托中国科学院牵头完成的《中国西部环境演变评估》研究成果,介绍了中国西部地区生态环境演变的主要特征与基本事实,主要强调近50年来全球变暖与人类活动在西部生态环境演变中的重要作用;指出未来的气候与环境变化对西部地区的经济社会发展将产生重要影响;提出了西部地区生态保护与可持续发展的对策与建议,指出西部地区的生态建设必须综合治理、突出重点,特别强调要强化对西部地区的科学研究,为西部大开发服务。 相似文献