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1.
Xiaoyan Wang Tao Yang Bin Yong Valentina Krysanova Pengfei Shi Zhenya Li Xudong Zhou 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2018,77(12):465
Climate change is expected to have substantial impacts on flow regime in the Upper Yellow River (UYR) basin that is one of the most important biodiversity hotspots in the world. These impacts will most possibly exert negative effects on the habitat availability for riverine species. Thus, it is necessary to understand the alteration of river flow regime under climate scenarios. In this paper, we use the modified hydrological model HBV in conjunction with three general circulation models under three representative concentration pathways (RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5) to address changes in flow regime under climate change for the UYR basin in the mid-term (2050s) and end-term (2080s) of the twenty-first century. Flow regime is quantified using the Indicators of hydrological alteration approach. Thereafter, the potential threats to riverine ecosystem in the UYR basin are identified based on the projected alterations of various flow characteristics and their ecological influences. The results showed that the magnitude of monthly flow would increase during the dry period. The date of the annual 1-day minimum streamflow will likely shift toward earlier time under different scenarios, and significant increases in magnitude of annual minimum flow of different durations were detected under both RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios in the 2080s. In addition, assessments of the modification degree of the overall flow regime revealed that climate change would remarkably modify (medium level) the overall flow regime in the UYR basin, particularly by the end of the twenty-first century or under the high emission scenarios. Besides, destruction of habitat and reduced availability of food induced by substantially increased hydrological instability in the 2080s would make two endangered fishes more vulnerable in the UYR basin. These findings provide insights into potential adaptive countermeasures for water resource management and environmental system restoration in the Upper Yellow River. 相似文献
2.
新疆阿尔泰山区克兰河上游水文过程对气候变暖的响应 总被引：17，自引：7，他引：10
额尔齐斯河支流克兰河上游发源于西风带水汽影响的阿尔泰山南坡,主要由融雪径流补给,年内积雪融水可占年径流量的45%.年最大月径流一般出现在6月份,融雪季节4~6月径流量占65%.流域自20世纪60年代开始明显升温,年平均温度从50年代的1.4℃上升到90年代的5.2℃;年降水总量也呈增加趋势,尤其是冬季和初春增加最多.随着气候变暖,河流年内水文过程发生了很大的变化,主要表现在最大月径流由6月提前到5月,月径流总量增加约15%,4~6月融雪径流量也由占年流量的60%增加到近70%.在多年变化趋势上,气温上升主要发生在冬季,降水也以冬季增加明显,而夏季降水呈下降趋势;水文过程主要表现在5月径流呈增加趋势,而6月径流为下降趋势;夏季径流减少而春季径流增加明显.冬春季积雪增加和气温上升,导致融雪洪水增多且洪峰流量增大,使洪水灾害破坏性加大.近些年来气候变暖引起的年内水文过程变化,已经对河流下游的城市供水和农牧业生产产生了影响. 相似文献
3.
环境变化改变了河流水文情势,影响了河流的生态系统健康,亟需开展变化环境下河流水文健康演变定量归因方法研究。选取北方半干旱地区老哈河流域为研究区,依据流域内3个水文站、17个雨量站和6个气象站1964—2016年数据,基于可变下渗容量模型还原河流的天然流量序列;采用概率密度法计算河流生态流量,基于生态流量阈值推求河流水文健康等级;基于"观测-模拟"对比分析法,定量分离气候变化和人类活动对河流水文健康情势的影响。结果表明:人类活动是甸子和太平庄子流域自1980年以来河流水文健康情势退化的主要原因,其贡献率分别为86.9%和87.9%;大面积农业灌溉用水引起地表径流下降以及水利工程改变天然水文情势,影响了河流水文健康情势;90年代降水量较为充沛,研究流域受人类活动影响程度较小,河流水文健康等级维持在较高的水平。综合生态流量阈值和"观测-模拟"对比分析方法可定量识别河流水文健康情势演变原因,为适应环境变化的河流健康管理提供科学依据。 相似文献
4.
气候变化对玛纳斯河的径流量影响预测模拟分析 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
山区积雪和冰川融水径流是内陆干旱区的重要水资源, 研究全球变暖情景下温度对融雪径流的影响具有重要意义. 以典型的内陆河玛纳斯流域上游为例, 利用基于度-日因子算法的SRM(Snowmelt Runoff Model)融雪径流模型, 根据当前变化趋势和年内分配模拟出20种假定来模拟未来气候情景(气温上升1 ℃、 2 ℃、 3 ℃、 4 ℃和降水变化率为0、 ±10%、 ±20%的随机组合情况)下的河道径流量, 从而计算出径流量的变化率, 分析了温度和降水变化对径流量的影响. 结果表明: 对于以雪冰融水为主要补给的玛纳斯河, 随着温度和降水的增加, 径流量也会增加, 并会使融雪径流提前. 假定降水量不发生大的变化, 温度增高1 ℃, 径流量增大13%~16%; 在气温一定时, 降雨量增加10%, 径流量增加2%左右, 说明气温和降水都对干旱区内陆河山区径流形成具有重要影响. 该研究对制定气候变化情景下的水资源适应对策具有重要指导意义. 相似文献
5.
Response of runoff to climate change in the area of runoff yield in upstream Shiyang River Basin,Northwest China: A case study of the Xiying River 
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下载免费PDF全文 The objective of this study was to analyze the response of runoff in the area of runoff yield of the upstream Shiyang River basin to climate change and to promote sustainable development of regional water resources and ecological environment. As the biggest tributary of the Shiyang River, Xiying River is the only hydrological station (Jiutiaoling) that has provincial natural river and can achieve long time series monitoring data in the basin. The data obtained from this station is representative of natural conditions because it has little human activites. This study built a regression model through identifying the characteristics of runoff and climate change by using Mann-Kendall nonparametric statistical test, cumulative anomaly, and correlation analysis. The results show that the average annual runoff is 320.6 million m3/a with the coefficient of variation of 0.18 and shows slightly decrease during 1956–2020. It has a significant positive correlation the average annual precipitation (P<0.01). Runoff is sensitive to climate change, and the climate has becoming warm and wet and annual runoff has entering wet period from 2003. Compared to the earlier period (1955–2000), the increases of average annual temperature, precipitation and runoff in recent two decades were 15%, 9.3%, and 7.8%, respectively. Runoff in the Shiyang River is affected by temperature and precipitation among climate factors, and the simulation results of the runoff-climate response model (R = 0.0052P ? 0.1589T + 2.373) indicate that higher temperature leads to a weakening of the ecological regulation of surface runoff in the flow-producing area. 相似文献
6.
Rubens Gondim Cleiton Silveira Francisco de Souza Filho Francisco VasconcelosJr. Daniel Cid 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2018,77(15):550
The objective of this study was to analyze climate change impacts on irrigation water demand and availability in the Jaguaribe River basin, Brazil. For northeastern Brazil, five global circulation models were selected using a rainfall seasonal evaluation screening technique from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change named Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. The climate variables were generated for the base period of 1971–2000, as were projections for the 2025–2055 future time slice. Removal of maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall output bias was used to estimate reference evapotranspiration, irrigation water needs, and river flow using the rainfall—river flow hydrological model Soil Moisture Accounting Procedure for the baseline and future climate (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios). In addition, by applying improved irrigation efficiency, a scenario was evaluated in comparison with field observed performance. The water-deficit index was used as a water availability performance indicator. Future climate projections by all five models resulted in increases in future reference evapotranspiration (2.3–6.3%) and irrigation water needs (2.8–16.7%) for all scenarios. Regarding rainfall projections, both positive (4.8–12.5%) and negative (??2.3 to ??15.2%) signals were observed. Most models and scenarios project that annual river flow will decrease. Lower future water availability was detected by the less positive water-deficit index. Improved irrigation efficiency is a key measure for the adaptation to higher future levels of water demand, as climate change impacts could be compensated by gains in irrigation efficiency (water demand changes varying from ??1.7 to ??35.2%). 相似文献
7.
人类活动和气候变化严重改变了黄河水文情势和生态径流,分析未来气候变化对河流生态的影响对流域水资源管理和长期规划意义重大。本文对第六次国际耦合模式比较计划（CMIP6）的13个全球气候模式数据进行偏差订正,驱动水文模型进行径流模拟,应用流量历时曲线方法分析SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP5-8.5情景下2026年至21世纪末年、季节尺度的花园口生态径流变化。结果表明:订正能明显降低降水、气温模拟偏差;人类活动严重影响了1986-2010年花园口生态径流;2026-2100年年均气温和年降水量增加趋势显著,低排放情景增速慢,高排放情景增速快;气候变化可在一定程度上缓解水库调控、水土保持等人类活动对生态径流的负面影响,SSP5-8.5情景缓解程度最高,冬季缓解程度最高,夏、秋季最低。 相似文献
8.
结合物理栖息地模拟模型的水力学与栖息地模型,以黄河干流兰州-石嘴山河段为研究样区及该河段的关键鱼种黄河鲤鱼为对象物种,以流速及水深二水力学因子进行研究,推求该研究样区兰州、安宁渡、下河沿、青铜峡和石嘴山五断面对象物种的流量与权重可使用面积的关系。通过对上述各断面1975-1985年汛前共11年生态、水文及断面资料的分析计算,归纳出研究断面汛前适合的生态流量分别为195、220、220、220、175 m3/s,计算结果在Tennant法界定的生态流量范围之内。 相似文献
9.
针对1960—2010年径流量显著减少的中国主要流域,包括松花江、辽河、海河、黄河和汉江等,选择其上游地区受人类直接取用水影响较少的山区小流域,分析径流变化及其原因.采用基于Budyko假设的流域水热耦合平衡方程,估计了流域年径流量变化的气候弹性系数和下垫面弹性系数,并对各流域径流变化进行了归因分析.结果表明,在气候较为湿润的地区,径流对气候和下垫面变化均不敏感;在气候较为干燥的地区,径流对气候和下垫面变化都更为敏感,且区域差异性明显.潜在蒸散发的变化对径流减少的影响微弱,降水减少和下垫面变化是径流减少的主导因素,其中人类活动导致的下垫面变化对径流减少的影响尤为显著.对比两个阶段的径流变化归因分析结果,近10年间流域下垫面变化对年径流量的影响程度较前20年有显著增加.通过分析近30年的归一化植被指数(NDVI)数据发现,植被覆盖改善是下垫面变化的重要原因,说明中国水土保持工程发挥了显著生态效益的同时也导致了流域径流减小. 相似文献
10.
应用Mann-Kendall秩次相关检验、流量历时曲线法、双累积曲线法等方法对黄河干流陕县站和河口镇站1919—2010年径流量演变过程进行了分析。结果表明:区域面平均降水量趋势性变化不显著,而上游（河口镇站以上）及中游（河口镇—陕县）年径流量自1985年以来呈显著减少趋势,中游径流量的降幅高于上游。黄河径流量变化具有明显阶段性,上游和中游径流量变化都经历了枯水期—丰水期—枯水期3个时期,现在黄河正处于枯水期。采用双累积曲线法,定量分析降水和人类活动对径流量的影响,上游和中游人类活动对径流量减少的影响程度分别占88.1%和84.9%,水利水保工程、生产生活用水等人类活动是引起黄河径流量减少的主要因素。 相似文献
11.
M. R. Majdzadeh Tabatabai R. Mousavi Nadushan S. Hashemi 《International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology》2017,14(8):1757-1770
In recent decades, due to river regulations and their impact on river morphology, brown trout populations have been declining along Lar River downstream of Lar Dam located near Tehran, Iran. Considering the recent water scarcity in the country, development of river habitat assessment models seems necessary. Therefore, in this research, an analytically applied approach is adopted to evaluate brown trout habitat by creating a relation among the hydrologic, hydraulic, geomorphic and ecologic processes. After field survey, dimensionless shear stress of the stream flow thresholds including environmental flow, bankfull flow, surface and subsurface sediment flow thresholds was calculated for Lar, Dalichay and Sefidab Rivers using Shields formula. Then, by considering the dimensionless shear stress ranges of the stream flow thresholds, functional flows ranges and duration were calculated together with ecological efficiency of the cross sections. In addition, effects of annual water yield and entrenchment ratio of the cross sections on habitat functionality were also worked out as a result of which an exponential interaction was developed between the dimensionless shear stress and discharge. Results show that an increase in functional flows ranges and duration, together with rising of ecological efficiency, is directly proportional to an increase in median bed sediment size, entrenchment ratio and annual water yield. Therefore, flow regime, cross-sectional geometry, water-surface slope and bed sediment size could be effective on the ecological functions of the brown trout’s life cycle and functionality of river flow. 相似文献
12.
近年来伴随气候变化地表径流呈极端化分布，为水电生态调度带来了挑战。为探究气候变化对电站发电和生态调度的影响、发电和生态目标间协调关系对气候变化的响应，以澜沧江下游梯级电站为例，结合多模式多情景未来径流预估结果及水库发电调度模型，针对发电及生态效益目标实施了单/多目标最优化。结果表明:在气候变化影响下，未来澜沧江径流总量将有所增加，水文变率将显著增强，河道生态所受影响也将增大；电站发电保证率及生态流量破坏率指标受不同调度方案的影响程度较气候变化影响更高，未来发电和生态效益的冲突依然存在；气候变化导致的水文变率增强可加剧发电与生态效益间的冲突，导致保持现有发电效益的同时增大对河道生态的影响。 相似文献
13.
Downstream effects of water withdrawal in a small,high-gradient basin: Erosion and deposition on the Skokomish River delta 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
This paper analyzes downstream effects of freshwater flow diversion from a small, active-continental-margin river basin. The Skokomish River delta, a tributary estuary to Hood Canal in Washington state, receives drainage from the southeastern side of the Olympic Mountains. Its drainage basin is steep, and rainfall is high. Since completion of two dams in 1930, approximately 40% of the annual average runoff of the entire system has been diverted from the North Fork Skokomish River for power production; this water does not pass through the lower river or over the delta. Extensive logging has occurred in the remainder of the basin. Comparison of prediversion (1885) and postdiversion (1941 and 1972) bathymetric surveys suggest that deposition (about 0.013 m yr?1 to 0.022 m yr?1) has occurred on most of the inner delta and erosion (up to 0.011 m yr?1 to 0.033 m yr?1) on much of the outer delta. More rapid postconstruction deposition occurred within the river mouth itself, where the 1926 to 1941 deposition rate was 0.04–0.11 m yr?1. Nine of 12 historical bathymetric change cross-sections show steepening of the delta surface, two are neutral, and one shows aggradation. This steepening has apparently been caused by a loss of sediment transport capacity in the lower river and estuary combined with steady or increased (due to logging) sediment supply. Although the total area of unvegetated tidal flats has decreased by only about 2%, there has been a 15–19% loss of highly productive low intertidal surface area and an estimated 17% loss of eelgrass (Zostera marina) habitat. A reduction in the size of mesohaline mixing zone has also occurred. These habitat losses are similar to those observed elsewhere in the world in larger river basins that have suffered water withdrawals of the same magnitude, but their impacts either cannot be evaluated or understood casually through consideration of simple measures like changes in total estuarine deltaic area. Evaluation of estuarine effects of anthropogenic modification must, therefore, include consideration of both changes in habitat function and in the physical processes. These must be evaluated within the totality of the river basin-estuary system that cause these changes. In this case, sediment transport constitutes the critical link between fluvial alterations and the remote downstream, estuarine consequences thereof. 相似文献
14.
根据春汛期水生态系统的特点,应用河道内流量增量法,选用二维河流模型River2D,建立栖息地与流量变化的动态关系,进而应用Mann-Kendall方法,开发基于栖息地突变分析的生态需水阈值模型。以第二松花江支流辉发河五道沟断面附近河段为例,选择松花江流域分布较为广泛的鲤鱼作为对象物种,以流速和水深两个因素表征鱼类栖息地,利用1956～2000年45年的春汛期月径流资料,判定鱼类栖息地在1970年开始发生了突变。在突变前加权可用面积95%的置信区间范围为275.5～915.7m2/km,对应的流量范围为58.8～121.1m3/s,并将其作为研究区春汛期间的生态需水阈值。春汛发生在冰封期刚刚结束的时段,适宜的春汛期生态需水能够提高生态系统多样性,对于鱼类等水生生物乃至于整个生态系统都有重要的生态意义。 相似文献
15.
新疆天山南麓柯坪河水文特性与洪水分析 总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3
柯坪河是天山南麓典型的雨水和泉水补给河流,河水主要为地下泉水出露补给,流量比较稳定,但暴雨的出现经常引起洪水发生.柯坪河仅有不足一年的水文观测,但河水主要是泉水补给,水量非常稳定,根据野外调查和推算,分析了柯坪河年内水文变化特征.依据洪水调查和文献查证,结合气象观测资料,分析了近百年来的典型洪水事件,建立了不同几率洪水发生的洪峰流量和洪水过程.最近几十年来的气温升高和降水增加,也使暴雨洪水的强度加强,并且频次增加.应加强对极端气候事件引发的洪水的监测和应对,在农业和水库安全运营上应注意和加强建立应对气候变化的措施. 相似文献
16.
The purpose of this paper is to analyze downstream effects of freshwater flow diversion from a small, active-continental-margin river basin. The Skokomish River delta is a tributary estuary to Hood Canal in Washington state that receives drainage from the southeastern side of the Olympic Mountains. Its drainage basin is steep, and rainfall is high. Approximately 40% of the annual average runoff of the entire system has been diverted from the North Fork Skokomish River for power production since completion of two dams in 1930; this water does not pass through the lower river or over the delta. Extensive logging has occurred in the remainder of the basin. Comparison of prediversion (1885) and postdiversion (1972) bathymetric surveys shows that deposition (about 0.013 to 0.022 m yr?1) has occurred on the inner delta and erosion (up to 0.033 m yr?1) on the outer delta. This steepening of the delta surface has apparently been caused by a loss of sediment transport capacity in the lower river and estuary combined with an increased sediment supply due to logging. Although the total area of unvegetated tidal flats thas decreased by only about 6%, there has been a more than 40% loss of highly productive low intertidal surface area. A conservative estimate of loss of eelgrass (Zostera marina) beds is 18%; a reduction in the size of mesohaline mixing zone has also occurred. These habitat losses are similar to those observed elsewhere in the world in larger river basins that have suffered water withdrawals of the same magnitude, but their impacts cannot either be evaluated or understood causally through consideration of simple measures like changes total estuarine deltaic area. Evaluation of estuarine effects of anthropogenic modification must, therefore, include consideration of both changes in habitat function and in the physical processes. These must be evaluated within the totality of the river basin-estuary system that cause these changes. In this case, sediment transport constitutes the critical link between fluvial alterations and the remote downstream, estuarine consequences thereof. 相似文献
17.
Assessment of ecological flow rate by flow duration and environmental management class in the Geum River, Korea 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
This study attempted to analyze flow duration in a basin using a method to estimate environmental flow developed by the International Water Management Institute, and simulate the effects of runoff characteristics unique to a river and flow variability due to basin developments on aquatic ecosystems. To do so, KModSim, a simulation model for basin-wide water distribution, was used to assess flow duration in the Geum River basin, one of the four major river basins in Korea, by environmental management class (EMC). Flow duration curves by EMC at Sutong and Gongju sites were derived on the basis of natural flow in the Geum River basin. As a result, they were found to be consistent with the results of previous studies. Time series of mean monthly flow data by EMC were plotted together with those of simulated flow data by reservoir operation scenario; Sutong and Gongju points both showed flow behaviors corresponding almost to “A” in EMC. In addition, the characteristics of habitats by species of fish were identified through monitoring fish habitat at the Sutong site, so that optimal ecological flow rate was estimated. For this purpose, relations between flow discharge and weighted usable area for Coreoleuciscus splendidus and Pseudopungtungia nigra were projected using physical habitat simulation system, and EMCs consistent with flow duration curves (estimated taking in-stream flow) were assessed. The results or findings reported in this study are expected to serve as basic data for making a plan to efficiently monitor and manage aquatic ecosystems in the Geum River basin. 相似文献
18.
石羊河流域水资源对气候变暖的响应及对生态环境的影响 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
近46年来石羊河流域的气温呈持续升高趋势,1994年显著变暖.与变暖前相比,年平均气温偏高1.0℃,线性增温速率快7倍.显著变暖后,流域年降水增加了15%(约15.8 mm),出山口径流却呈略减少趋势(约2.2亿m3),地下水位也在快速降低.出山口径流的略减少发生在上游山区年降水量减少的大背景下,人类活动是影响流域中游地表径流利用量和下游可利用量变化的主要原因.对植被的监测表明,以荒漠草甸和沙生植被为主的稀疏植被面积在快速减少,同时还存在植被类型的退化现象,植被覆盖面积和地下水位埋深两者呈显著负相关.受气候变化和人类活动的共同影响,石羊河流域的生态环境正在趋于恶化. 相似文献
19.
Climate change will affect both the quality and the quantity of water in freshwater environments. Changes in air temperature and precipitation will alter the annual water temperature cycle and the annual water level cycle. Initial assessments of the effects of climate change on freshwater fishes of North America have focused on the potential thermal effects of climate change because of the strong influence of water temperature on the life histories of temperate fishes. Paralleling the influence of water temperature on temperate fishes is the influence of water quantity on tropical fishes, especially on riverine fishes. The extreme seasonal fluctuations in discharge of tropical rivers, through the effects on fish habitat availability and habitat conditions, have produced a range in preferred habitat types among riverine fishes. We suggest that initial assessment of potential effects of climate change on tropical freshwater fishes should focus on changes to water quantity variables in riverine environments. Assessments should begin at a coarse level of resolution. A useful starting point would be comparative analyses of the sensitivity of blackfishes and whitefishes to changes in habitat availability, oxygen levels and desiccation stress that will likely accompany changes in the seasonal flow regimes of tropical rivers.This paper formed part of a symposium held at the XVII Pacific Science Congress in Honolulu, Hawaii June 1991. The theme of the symposium was Aspects of Global Environmental Change: Freshwater Ecosystems which focused on southern Pacific environments. 相似文献
20.
选择信江下游梅港站1950~2010年日径流量,根据流域大型水库界牌枢纽运行时间将梅港站径流序列分为建库前(1953~2001)和建库后(2002~2010)两个时段。采用变动范围法(Range of Variability Approach,简称:RVA)分析水库运行对下游梅港站流域生态水文指标改变度,并分析了信江下游生态流量。研究表明:33个水文指标有22个发生中高度改变,11个指标发生低度改变,其水文综合改变度为0.51,属于中度改变;梅港站生态流量值均在RVA阈值内,基本能够保持河流稳定流量,但2月、7~9月及12月河道生态流量大于RVA下限。可适量增大水库下泄水量,降低对下游河段生态系统的威胁。 相似文献