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Chen Changsheng Lin Zhaolin Beardsley Robert C. Shyka Tom Zhang Yu Xu Qichun Qi Jianhua Lin Huichan Xu Danya 《Natural Hazards》2021,106(1):375-399
Natural Hazards - Hurricanes (tropical cyclones) and nor'easters (extratropical cyclones) are two major storm systems for flood risk over the Massachusetts coast. Severe coastal inundation... 相似文献
3.
Many developing countries are very vulnerable to flood risk since they are located in climatic zones characterised by extreme precipitation events, such as cyclones and heavy monsoon rainfall. Adequate flood mitigation requires a routing mechanism that can predict the dynamics of flood waves as they travel from source to flood-prone areas, and thus allow for early warning and adequate flood defences. A number of cutting edge hydrodynamic models have been developed in industrialised countries that can predict the advance of flood waves efficiently. These models are not readily applicable to flood prediction in developing countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America, however, due to lack of data, particularly terrain and hydrological data. This paper explores the adaptations and adjustments that are essential to employ hydrodynamic models like LISFLOOD-FP to route very high-magnitude floods by utilising freely available Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission digital elevation model, available topographical maps and sparse network of river gauging stations. A 110 km reach of the lower Damodar River in eastern India was taken as the study area since it suffers from chronic floods caused by water release from upstream dams during intense monsoon storm events. The uncertainty in model outputs, which is likely to increase with coarse data inputs, was quantified in a generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation framework to demonstrate the level of confidence that one can have on such flood routing approaches. Validation results with an extreme flood event of 2009 reveal an encouraging index of agreement of 0.77 with observed records, while most of the observed time series records of a 2007 major flood were found to be within 95 % upper and lower uncertainty bounds of the modelled outcomes. 相似文献
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A peat core from a cutoff paleochannel of Little River on the upper Coastal Plain of North Carolina provides a continuous pollen record of environmental change for the past 10,500 years and includes a sedimentary record of overbank floods. Palynological and sedimentary data indicate that the early to middle Holocene was wetter than previously suggested from lake sites in the southeastern United States. The period from 9000 to 6100 cal yr B.P. is characterized by high pollen percentages of Nyssa and Quercus, but low percentages of Pinus. Fifteen large overbank flood events are present within this period (5 floods/1000 yr). In contrast, only 6 large overbank flood events occurred since 6100 cal yr B.P. (1 flood/1000 yr). The increases in moisture and flood events probably were controlled by changes in atmospheric circulation related to shifts in the position of the Bermuda High, sea surface temperatures, and El Niño activity that together may have affected the frequency of large floods generated from tropical storms in the region. 相似文献
5.
In this paper, the main meteorological and meteorologically induced marine disasters in Shanghai are climatologically investigated on the basis of historical qualitative documentary records and quantitative data. Statistics show that disasters may be classified into six different kinds, of which three are fundamental, i.e. floods, winds, and storm surges. Emphasis is placed on the detailed analysis and discussion of floods, tropical cyclones, and Mei-yu which affect Shanghai and cause destructive calamities.Firstly, the classification of floods, their frequencies, and geographical distribution characteristics are described and the regulation of the climatic variation of floods is revealed. Secondly, the frequency, source regions, seasonal variations, tracks, and translatory speeds of tropical cyclones affecting Shanghai, and their induced strong winds, storm rainfalls, and storm surges are systematically studied. Many meaningful conclusions have been reached for providing the climatological background of Shanghai.The climatic change and its regulation of these main disasters in Shanghai have been basically clarified throughout this study. 相似文献
6.
Xin Huang Hongzhuan Tan Jia Zhou Tubao Yang Abuaku Benjamin Shi Wu Wen Shuoqi Li Aizhong Liu Xinhua Li Shuidong Fen Xinli Li 《Natural Hazards》2008,47(1):65-73
Natural and man-made disasters have been increasing and affecting millions of people throughout the world. Floods are the
most common natural disasters affecting more people across the globe than all other natural or technological disasters and
also are the most costly in terms of human hardship and economic loss. In order to explore the total economic loss, components
of economic loss, and factors influencing economic loss during flooding, a retrospective study was carried out in year 2000
in areas that suffered floods in 1998 in Hunan province, China. A total of 10,722 families were investigated using a multistage
sampling method. We found that the total economic loss to the 10,722 families investigated was US$ 8.925 million; translating
into an average economic loss of US$ 832.45 per family and US$ 216.75 per person. Economic loss related to property loss,
income loss, and increased medical cost accounted for 57.38%, 40.00%, and 2.62% of the total economic loss, respectively.
Economic loss was significantly related to a family’s pre-flood income; duration of the flood; severity of flood; and type
of flood. River floods yielded the highest economic loss and drainage problem floods yielded the lowest loss. We recommended
that flood-related preventive measures should focus on the prevention of river floods and shortening the duration of floods
with the view of significantly minimizing economic losses associated with floods. 相似文献
7.
新疆天山北坡中段河流冰凌洪水特征分析 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
冰凌洪水(冰洪)是新疆天山北坡中段河流冬季的一种特殊洪水,其暴发主要受气温、逆温带范围、冬季河流来水量、冰情冰厚、地势.河道弯曲率和河床条件等多种因素影响."冰洪"具有随机性、规律性和不重复性三种特性,冰凌洪水的峰型类似于暴雨洪水具有陡涨陡落的特点,峰前陡峭而落峰则相对缓一些.以四棵树河为典型流域,对冰凌洪水的成因、发展和运动规律进行研究,并发现冰凌洪水具有"水鼓冰开"现象.对四棵树河1967-2006年冰洪流量的年内、年际分布情况看,20世纪70-80年代由于冬季气候寒冷,是"冰洪"发生最多的时期;自进入20世纪90年代以来由于受全球气候变暖等因素影响,冰凌洪水呈现衰退趋势,气候变暖对冰洪影响非常大. 相似文献
8.
This article estimates the non-first-order economic loss in Japan due to a future increase in tropical cyclones. One possible
effect of global warming could be the increase in intensity of tropical cyclones. Using historical storm tracks between the
years 1978 and 2007 and altering their intensities due to this potential increase in their intensity, this paper calculates
the future potential regional GDP loss in a certain area that is affected by tropical cyclones. Most of the literature is
concerned with physical damage and the loss of lives due to tropical cyclones. However, there are additional economic costs
when sustained wind speeds are higher than 30 knots (55.56 km/h), a level that generally will lead to a precautionary cessation
of many human activities. Using a Monte Carlo simulation, the paper calculates the potential economic costs for the year 2085
under a climate change scenario with a linear one-per cent yearly increase in CO2. Using a spatial distribution of economic activity in Japan, it is possible to forecast which parts of the country are likely
to experience the highest loss risk. 相似文献
9.
Tropical cyclones are the most hazardous weather systems, which form over warm ocean waters. The frequencies of tropical cyclones show variabilities over all the oceanic basins, during the El-Niño and El-Niño Modoki years. Recent studies have shown significant impact of air–sea interaction processes like El-Niño and El-Niño Modoki on the cyclone activity over different ocean basins. The results suggest in most cases, El-Niño events suppress the formation of cyclones over various basins. A recent study indicated that concurrent occurrence of El-Niño Modoki and positive Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) events can generate more cyclones over north-west Pacific. We propose to study the impact of El-Niño Modoki events on the formation of tropical cyclones over north Indian Ocean (NIO). Our present study suggests that the cyclogenesis over the NIO is a complex phenomenon, as it is influenced by several coupled ocean atmospheric phenomena such as El-Niño, El-Niño Modki, IOD and Madden–Julian oscillation. 相似文献
10.
The Flood Risk in Cairns 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Peter Baddiley 《Natural Hazards》2003,30(2):155-164
The Cairns region, on the north tropical coast of Queensland, forms part of the wettestarea in Australia, with mean annual rainfalls of 2,000 to 4,000 mm. During the summerand early autumn months, intense rainfalls associated with cyclones and other tropicalweather influences persist for several days, and can produce severe flooding in theBarron, Mulgrave and Russell Rivers and smaller drainage systems. There is oftensome loss of life and the damage to buildings, transport infrastructure, sugar cane andother agricultural crops can easily exceed 100 million. Very high intensity rainfallsover shorter periods, only a few hours, also present a significant urban flash flood risk,as happened at Townsville City, some 300 km to the south of Cairns, in January 1998.Despite the use of good floodplain management practices in recent decades, the combinedrisk of severe river floods and urban drainage floods is relatively high when comparedwith the other more damaging, but less frequent, natural hazards. 相似文献
11.
Flood is among the deadliest disasters in India, and the frequency of floods and extreme precipitation events is projected to increase under the warming climate. The frequency of floods in India varies geographically as some regions are more prone to floods than the others. The Kerala flood of 2018 caused enormous economic damage, affected millions of people, and resulted in the death of more than 400 people. Here we provide a hydroclimatological perspective on the Kerala flood of 2018. Using the observations and model simulations from the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, we show that the 2018 extreme precipitation and runoff conditions that caused flooding were unprecedented in the record of the past 66 years (1951–2017). Our results show that mean monsoon precipitation has significantly declined while air temperature has significantly increased during 1951–2017 in Kerala. The drying and warming trends during the monsoon season resulted in a declined total runoff in large part of the state in the last 66 years. Apart from the mean hydroclimatic conditions, extreme precipitation, and extreme total runoff have also declined from 1951 to 2017. However, 1 and 2-day extreme precipitation and extreme runoff conditions in August 2018 exceeded substantially from the long-term 95th percentiles recorded during 1951–2017. Since there is no increase in mean and extreme precipitation in Kerala over the last six decades, the extreme event during August 2018 is likely to be driven by anomalous atmospheric conditions due to climate variability rather anthropogenic climate warming. The severity of the Kerala flood of 2018 and the damage caused might be affected by several factors including land use/land cover change, antecedent hydrologic conditions, reservoir storage and operations, encroachment of flood plains, and other natural factors. The impacts of key drivers (anthropogenic and natural) on flood severity need to be established to improve our understanding of floods and associated damage. 相似文献
12.
Many lowland stream channels have dramatically widened over the last two centuries. There has been considerable debate about whether this widening was caused by an unusually large flood, by a series of large floods, or by decreased bank stability caused by clearing of riparian vegetation. The relative effects of floods and vegetation can be disentangled in southeastern Australia where streams have undergone both clearing of bank vegetation, and decadal sequences of relatively higher and lower flood magnitude and frequency. Archival aerial photographs of the Nepean River, in southeastern Australia, suggest that banks did not erode during periods of low flood magnitude (drought-dominated regime: from 1901–1949) whether they were cleared or not. However, during periods of flood-dominated regime (1950 to 1970s) only cleared stream banks eroded. Thus, on the upper Nepean River, clearing alone was insufficient to trigger erosion by small floods, and even large floods were unable to erode vegetated banks. The conclusion is that substantial channel widening in this river required both clearing of bank vegetation, and periods of unusually large and frequent floods. This conclusion is supported by geomechanical modelling that examine the reduction in bank shear strength arising from the loss of tree-root reinforcement. The modelling also suggests that bank instability arising from devegetation amplifies the potential for bank failure during the drawdown phase of a flood, leading to channel widening. 相似文献
13.
Ruiz-Salcines Pablo Appendini Christian M. Salles Paulo Rey Wilmer Vigh Jonathan L. 《Natural Hazards》2021,105(1):431-459
Natural Hazards - This study presents a new approach to assess storm surge risk from tropical cyclones under climate change by direct calculation of the local flood levels using a limited number of... 相似文献
14.
In the tropical and subtropical wet and dry regions, maintaining natural hydrologic connections between coastal rivers and adjacent ephemeral wetlands is critical to conserving and sustaining high levels of fisheries production within these systems. Though there is a consensus that there is a need to maintain these natural connections, little is known about what attributes of floodplain inundation regimes are most important in sustaining fisheries production. Two attributes of the flood season and thus floodplain inundation that may be particularly influential to fisheries are the amplitude of the flood season (floodplain water depth and spatial extent of inundation) and the duration of the flood season (i.e., time floodplains are inundated). In mangrove-dominated Everglades coastal rivers, seasonal inundation of upstream marsh floodplains may play an important role in provisioning recreational fisheries; however, this relationship remains unknown. Using two Everglades coastal river fisheries as a model, we tested whether the amplitude of the flood season or the duration of the flood season is more important in explaining variation in angler catch records of common snook and largemouth bass collected from 1992 to 2012. We validated angler catches with fisheries-independent electrofishing conducted in the same region from 2004 to 2012. Our results showed (1) that bass angler catches tracked electrofishing catches, while snook catches were completely mismatched. And (2) that previous year's marsh dynamics, particularly the duration of the flood season, was more influential than the flood season amplitude in explaining variation in bass catches, such that bass angler catches were negatively correlated to the period time that floodplains remained disconnected from coastal rivers in the previous year, while snook catches were not very well explained by floodplain inundation terms. 相似文献
15.
Christopher P. Burgess Michael A. Taylor Tannecia Stephenson Arpita Mandal Leiska Powell 《Natural Hazards》2015,78(1):231-256
Floods account for more than half of the global hydrometeorological risks. Severe floods cause significant economic shocks and loss of lives, particularly for developing countries such as Jamaica. There is need for more information on the present and projected flood risks to justify macro-scale planning for climate change adaptation and facilitate the decision-making processes. In this study, a catalogue of 198 flood events occurring between 1678 and 2010 is compiled for Jamaica and used to examine the climatology, occurrence, trends, causes and duration of the island’s severe events. The annual flood risk is estimated to be a loss of life rate of 4 persons and estimated annual damage of USD96.3 million per annum in 2010 values and approximately 0.84 % of GDP per annum. Macro-scale models for flood risks (deaths and damages) are also developed using data from the flood catalogue and maximum precipitation at the town and parish level. The models examine the relationship between flood risks (death and damages) and extreme rainfall depths and intensities. Future climate risks of loss of lives and damages are predicted to increase 11 and 9 %, respectively, to 4.4 persons and USD105.2 million per annum. 相似文献
16.
Natural disasters like floods, tornadoes, tropicalcyclones, heat and cold wavewreak havoc and cause tremendous loss ofproperty all over the world. Most ofthe natural disasters are either dueto weather or are triggered due toweather related processes.Extreme weather events claimed thousands oflives and caused damage on vastscale. Recent super cyclone which affectedOrissa in 1999, Bangladesh cyclone of1970 and Hurricane Andrew in 1992 areexamples of some of the more damagingtropical cyclones which affected developingas well as the developed world. Heatand cold waves are also extreme events,which cause enormous losses in terms oflives lost and human discomfort and ailmentsarising out of them. The heat waveof 1995 and 1998 are still fresh in the mindof the Indian public. The estimated lossof human lives due to heat wave in 1998 was morethan 15,000. Economic losses asa result of these disasters and in particular inassociation with tropical cyclones haveincreased enormously over the last three decades.During 1961–1991, total loss oflives from drought alone was 1,333,728 overthe whole world. In terms of economiclosses, there is 8–10 fold increase from thebase figure of 1960. The socio-economicimpact of natural disaster is complex dependingupon the vulnerability of the placeand mitigation strategies that are put in place.Meteorology plays a crucial role in forewarningpeople about the severe/extremeweather systems and a constant endeavour by themeteorological services worldover has gone a long way towards minimizing thelosses caused by natural disasters.The paper summarises the natural disasterstatistics over south Asia and the possibleprediction strategies for combating theirsocio-economic impacts. 相似文献
17.
新疆军塘湖河典型融雪洪水过程研究 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
开春融雪型洪水在新疆具有多发、易发的特点.春汛对解决春旱极为有利,但在一定条件下也可造成一定危害.运用成因分析法和相关分析法,对军塘湖河量级较大的典型融雪洪水的个例分析,在融雪型洪水的制导因素、形成机理、洪水特性等方面进行研究,以便寻求融雪型洪水的一般规律,同时在趋利避害、洪水资源利用方面进行有益的尝试. 相似文献
18.
The Yangtze River Economic Belt is one of the three national strategies of China, while flood risk is one of the most important concerns in the development of Yangtze River Economic Belt. In order to decrease the risks caused by floods, complete flood management system and adequate pre-arranged planning are desiderated to be researched in advance. This study considers two typical situations of flood risk, in which one is sluice-control situation in flood detention area and another is dike-break situation in flood-protected area, and proposes a framework for flood risk mapping. The results show that the losses caused by flood hazards are massive both in the two typical cases when extreme floods happen. The economic losses of different indicators are of great difference in flood detention area and flood-protected area, respectively. The framework effectively handles the complex boundaries in the Yangtze River Economic Belt and provides more accurate flood routing information. The evacuation plan module which has been incorporated in the framework also provides informative assistance for emergent action of evacuation under urgent condition. 相似文献
19.
Flash flood routing modeling for levee-breaks and overbank flows due to typhoon events in a complicated river system 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
There has been a yearly increase in precipitation in Taiwan, consistent with trends seen across the world. In the summer and
fall, typhoons or tropical cyclones with torrential rainfall frequently occur as a result of Taiwan’s subtropical climate.
Flash floods may cause a levee-break and/or the overtopping of banks at narrow neck locations in a river system, which may
in turn produce inundation in urban areas. Therefore, a model that predicts flash floods is of vital importance for river
management. The present study is based on a flash flood routing model, which incorporates levee-break and overbank functions
to calculate the discharge hydrographs in the complicated Danshuei River system of northern Taiwan. The numerical model was
calibrated and verified against observed water stages using three typhoon events. The results indicate reasonable agreement
between the model simulations and the observed data. The model was then used to calculate the levee-break and overbank flow
hydrographs due to Typhoon Talim (2005) and Typhoon Nari (2001), respectively. The simulated results indicate that several
parameters significantly affect the flow hydrograph during a levee-break and should be carefully monitored when levee-break
events occur in the river system. The simulated water stages at several stations are consistent with observed data from Typhoon
Nari. The simulated overbank flow results quantitatively agree with reported information. The data also confirm that most
of the overbank events occurred at the upper reaches of the Keelung River, consistent with the low levee height protection. 相似文献
20.
Nga Thi Thanh Pham Quang Hong Nguyen Anh Duc Ngo Hang Thi Thu Le Cong Tien Nguyen 《Natural Hazards》2018,92(1):189-204
Flooding associated with landing tropical cyclones (TCs) is one of the major natural hazards in the coastal region of Vietnam. Annually, approximately 5 or 6 TCs make landfall in Vietnam, bringing heavy rains and inducing flooding, particularly to the central coastal region because of its topography and geographic configuration. This study focuses on the modelling of typhoon-induced floods that have resulted in widespread damage to agriculture over the central Thua Thien Hue Province of Vietnam by coupling two well-known hydrological models, KINEROS2 and HEC-RAS (Daniel et al. in Open Hydrol J 5(1), 2011), and using GSMaP (Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation) data as the satellite rainfall input. Landsat imagery and GIS are also used for mapping and analysing the inundated areas. The discharge and water level from the KINEROS2 and HEC-RAS models displayed acceptable results for the floods modelled from three selected typhoons; both the Nash–Sutcliffe simulation efficiency coefficient (NSE) and the coefficient of determination (R2) were greater than 0.6. The simulated inundation maps of these typhoon-induced floods were compared with those extracted from the Landsat imagery to assess consistency. The result revealed a similar spatial extension of the inundated agricultural areas. This information, together with the forecasted TC movements and associated rainfalls, will be helpful to plan methods for mitigating potential typhoon-induced flooding and damage, particularly damage to agricultural regions. 相似文献