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1.
Strong wind and rainfall induced by extreme meteorological processes such as typhoons have a serious impact on the safety of bridges and offshore engineering structures. A new bivariate compound extreme value distribution is proposed to describe the probability dependency structure of annual extreme wind speed and concomitant process maximum rainfall intensity in typhoon-affected area. This probability model takes full account of the case that there may be no rainfall in a typhoon process. A case study based on the observation data of typhoon maximum wind speed and maximum rainfall intensity in Shanghai is conducted to testify the efficiency of the model. Weibull distributions with two parameters are applied to fit respective probability margins, and the joint probability distribution is constructed by Gumbel–Hougaard copula. The fitting results and K–S tests show that these models describe the original data well. The joint return periods are calculated by Poisson bivariate compound extreme value distribution we have proposed. They indicate that typhoons with no rain have smaller joint return periods, and wind speed is the main factor which impacts the change of the joint return periods. 相似文献
2.
High precision design wave height is required in extreme marine environments in typhoon-affected sea areas. A new model is built under typhoon effect to calculate the design wave heights. The new model has multiple undetermined parameters, and it is able to fit observed data more flexibly and accurately. In addition, the distribution functions of this new model are based on the maximum entropy principle. Therefore, they can avoid the apriority, which means arbitrarily assigning Poisson distribution to describe the distribution of typhoon occurrence frequency and assigning Gumbel distribution or Pearson-III distribution to describe the distribution of extreme events in the process of applying the compound distribution to deduce the design elevations. The observed data of 18-year (1984–2001) extreme wave heights and the corresponding typhoon events in Maidao are used to test the model. Test results show that the new model is theoretically more stable and more precise when predicting the design wave heights under the typhoon-affected sea areas. 相似文献
3.
考虑台风导致的高水位和海浪波高对风暴潮灾害的贡献,对1949年以来影响青岛地区的台风暴潮进行了抽样统计.基于二维的泊松冈贝尔逻辑分布模式,对海岸地区的致灾风暴潮进行了长期的随机分析.与传统的警戒水位法不同,新模式能够反映多种环境荷载的综合作用,推算了青岛地区的特大台风暴潮灾害的重现期.计算结果显示,二维复合分布模式适合于描述台风暴潮过程中极值水位与相应波高的联合概率,所得结论对青岛地区的防潮减灾规划和工程建设具有指导意义. 相似文献
4.
The flood characteristics, namely, peak, duration and volume provide important information for the design of hydraulic structures, water resources planning, reservoir management and flood hazard mapping. Flood is a complex phenomenon defined by strongly correlated characteristics such as peak, duration and volume. Therefore, it is necessary to study the simultaneous, multivariate, probabilistic behaviour of flood characteristics. Traditional multivariate parametric distributions have widely been applied for hydrological applications. However, this approach has some drawbacks such as the dependence structure between the variables, which depends on the marginal distributions or the flood variables that have the same type of marginal distributions. Copulas are applied to overcome the restriction of traditional bivariate frequency analysis by choosing the marginals from different families of the probability distribution for flood variables. The most important step in the modelling process using copula is the selection of copula function which is the best fit for the data sample. The choice of copula may significantly impact the bivariate quantiles. Indeed, this study indicates that there is a huge difference in the joint return period estimation using the families of extreme value copulas and no upper tail copulas (Frank, Clayton and Gaussian) if there exists asymptotic dependence in the flood characteristics. This study suggests that the copula function should be selected based on the dependence structure of the variables. From the results, it is observed that the result from tail dependence test is very useful in selecting the appropriate copula for modelling the joint dependence structure of flood variables. The extreme value copulas with upper tail dependence have proved that they are appropriate models for the dependence structure of the flood characteristics and Frank, Clayton and Gaussian copulas are the appropriate copula models in case of variables which are diagnosed as asymptotic independence. 相似文献
5.
假想台风下的波浪数值模拟是跨海桥隧工程风险评价的重要内容。风场的生成方法与不利路径的选择对于波浪模拟结果有极大影响。研究检验了在单一假想台风风场下进行波浪模拟的合理性,分析了台风路径对于工程区不同方向波浪影响的差异。通过构建珠江口台风浪数学模型,对采用风圈半径方法筛选出的104场台风路径,按300年一遇强度进行了蒙特卡罗模拟。结果表明,对西人工岛处波浪场有重大影响的不利台风路径处于珠江口100km范围内。由此确定了体现不同特征的7条不利台风路径,为进一步研究极端天气条件下珠江口台风浪过程提供基础。研究成果为沿海河口地区易受台风影响的大型工程波浪要素分析提供方法支撑。 相似文献
6.
为了解影响舟山岛的台风浪特性,基于舟山岛东北部沿海水域深、浅水两个测站同步测量的6个台风过程波浪资料,统计分析了两测站的波参数变化和谱变化特性,探讨了波浪变化的原因。研究显示:①灿鸿过程的深、浅水站最大波高均大于其他5个台风浪过程;②多数台风浪过程深水站波向主要为东及东南东向,而浅水站主要为东、东北东及东北向,水下地形对波向变化起主要作用;③不同路径台风对两测站谱型有明显影响,灿鸿、巴蓬、黄蜂和天鹅过程的波浪在两站以双峰谱为主,苏迪罗和杜鹃过程深水站波浪以单峰谱居多,浅水站则多峰谱多于单峰谱。研究成果对沿海建筑物的设计以及防灾减灾有重要参考价值。 相似文献
7.
The paper introduces a three-dimensional numerical technique to assess typhoon hazards in China coastal regions based on a series of full-set numerical meteorology simulations. The boundary and initial conditions of the simulations are provided by adding pseudorandom fluctuations, which represent the localized, short-term meteorological variations, to synoptic fields, which show the large-scale, long-term meteorological patterns. A series of bogus typhoons are inserted into the initial field to provide the “seeds” from which the artificial typhoons could grow. The initial positions and intensities of the bogus typhoons are drawn from the random variables whose statistics agree with those derived from historical typhoon track data. In the present study, 1503 full-set meteorology simulations of artificial typhoons are conducted. The extreme wind speeds versus return periods calculated from the simulation results are compared to not only the specifications in the load code, but also the results from the previous studies. It is found that the extreme wind speeds in the Pearl-River Delta are, contradicting to the common expectation, higher than at the mainland side of the Taiwan Strait, which imply that the typhoons hitting Guangdong are, on average, more intense than those influencing Fujian. Given the possibility to improve the three-dimensional meteorology model in the future, the simulation technique proposed in the present study provides a novel direction to assess the meteorological hazards, including threads posted by typhoons.
相似文献8.
The classical extreme value theory based on generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution and generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) is applied to the wave height estimate based on wave hindcast data covering a period of 31?years for a location in the eastern Arabian Sea. Practical concern such as the threshold selection and model validation is discussed. Estimates of wave height having different return periods are compared with estimates obtained from different distributions. On comparing the distributions fitted to the GEV with annual maximum approach and GPD with peaks over threshold approach have indicated that both GEV and GPD models gave similar or comparable wave height for the study area since there is no multiple storm event in a year. Influence of seasonality on wave height having different return period is also studied. 相似文献
9.
利用1949~2013年共65年台风资料,统计分析登陆我国台风的气候特征。结果表明,登陆个数与生成个数有良好正相关;登陆个数年际变化明显,年最多登陆个数是最少登陆个数的4倍。登陆台风源地相对集中于南海北部和菲律宾以东两个区域;登陆时间主要集中于7~9月,登陆地点主要集中在广东、台湾、福建、海南、浙江5省。从登陆强度看,最多的为强热带风暴,次之为台风,强台风以上量级占12%;二次登陆强度普遍较首次登陆时弱,风力小2~3级。总体上登陆强度越大,登陆后在陆上的维持时间也越长,其中盛夏季节维持时间最长。21世纪以来登陆台风呈现个数多、强度大、灾损重的趋势,登陆时间的极端性和集中程度更趋明显。 相似文献
10.
水文变量多特征属性的频率分析,以及各种水文事件的遭遇及联合概率分布问题需要采用多变量概率分布模型解决。总结了当前应用最广泛的几种两变量概率分布模型,对各种模型的适用性和局限性做了详细分析,并介绍了一种新的两变量概率模型——Copula函数。现有模型大都基于变量之间的线性相关关系而建立,对于非线性、非对称的随机变量难以很好地描述;大部分模型假定各变量服从相同的边际分布或对变量间的相关性有严格的限定,从而限制了其应用。Copula函数所构造的两变量概率分布模型克服了现有模型的不足,它具有任意的边际分布,可以描述变量间非线性、非对称的相关关系。作为一种用于构造灵活的多变量联合分布的工具,Copula函数在水科学领域具有广阔的应用前景。 相似文献
11.
Dian‐Qing Li Xiao‐Song Tang Kok‐Kwang Phoon Yi‐Feng Chen Chuang‐Bing Zhou 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2013,37(6):597-617
This paper aims to propose a procedure for modeling the joint probability distribution of bivariate uncertain data with a nonlinear dependence structure. First, the concept of dependence measures is briefly introduced. Then, both the Akaike Information Criterion and the Bayesian Information Criterion are adopted for identifying the best‐fit copula. Thereafter, simulation of copulas and bivariate distributions based on Monte Carlo simulation are presented. Practical application for serviceability limit state reliability analysis of piles is conducted. Finally, four load–test datasets of load–displacement curves of piles are used to illustrate the proposed procedure. The results indicate that the proposed copula‐based procedure can model and simulate the bivariate probability distribution of two curve‐fitting parameters underlying the load–displacement models of piles in a more general way. The simulated load–displacement curves using the proposed procedure are found to be in good agreement with the measured results. In most cases, the Gaussian copula, often adopted out of expedience without proper validation, is not the best‐fit copula for modeling the dependence structure underlying two curve‐fitting parameters. The conditional probability density functions obtained from the Gaussian copula differ considerably from those obtained from the best‐fit copula. The probabilities of failure associated with the Gaussian copula are significantly smaller than the reference solutions, which are very unconservative for pile safety assessment. If the strong negative correlation between the two curve‐fitting parameters is ignored, the scatter in the measured load–displacement curves cannot be simulated properly, and the probabilities of failure will be highly overestimated. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
12.
Coupling typhoon rainfall forecasting with overland-flow modeling for early warning of inundation 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Tsung-Yi Pan Lung-Yao Chang Jihn-Sung Lai Hsiang-Kuan Chang Cheng-Shang Lee Yih-Chi Tan 《Natural Hazards》2014,70(3):1763-1793
Taiwan suffers from an average of three or four typhoons annually, and the inundation caused by the heavy precipitation that is associated with typhoons frequently occurs in lowlands and floodplains. Potential inundation maps have been widely used as references to set up non-structural strategies for mitigating flood hazards. However, spatiotemporal rainfall distributions must be addressed to improve the accuracy of inundation forecasting for emergency response operations. This study presents a system for 24-h-ahead early warning of inundation, by coupling the forecasting of typhoon rainfall with the modeling of overland flow. A typhoon rainfall climatology model (TRCM) is introduced to forecast dynamically the spatiotemporal rainfall distribution based on typhoon tracks. The systematic scheme for early warning of inundation based on the spatiotemporal downscaling of rainfall and 2D overland-flow modeling yields not only the extent of inundation, but also the time to maximum inundation depth. The scheme is superior to traditional early warning method referring to the maximum extent and depth of inundation determined from conditional uniform rainfall. Analytical results show that coupling TRCM with an overland-flow model yields satisfactory inundation hydrographs for warning of the extent and peak time of inundation. This study also shows that the accuracy of forecasting spatiotemporal rainfall patterns determines the performance of inundation forecasting, which is critical to emergency response operations. 相似文献
13.
近年来珠江口海域航道治理、桥梁工程、港口建设等大型水上工程建设项目越来越多,水工建筑物安全的重要性和对台风浪灾害破坏的敏感性是大型工程重点关注的要素之一,采用台风浪数学模型分析计算极端天气条件对港珠澳大桥岛桥结合部人工岛设计波浪要素的影响。分析统计1949—2014年影响广东省沿海地区的登陆台风资料,采用随机模型分析珠江口地区300年一遇的台风气压降和登陆最大风速参数;建立珠江口水域的台风浪数学模型;选取不利台风登陆路径,采用300年一遇台风参数组合计算极端天气条件下珠江口内东西人工岛的设计波浪要素,对原设计波要素进行复核。可为其他海洋工程项目设计提供新的思路和研究方法。 相似文献
14.
以三峡水库上游寸滩至万县区间降水预报误差和入库洪水预报误差相应数据为例,在探讨两者统计相关性的基础上,采用Frank、Gumbel、Clayton三种二元Copula连接函数分析了两预报误差的相关结构,以离差平方和最小为准则进行了Copula函数的选择,并与两预报误差独立情况下联合频率分布进行比较和分析。研究结果表明,降水预报误差和洪水预报误差的相关性对其二元联合分布有一定影响,同时,在两预报误差负相关条件下,其联合分布可做简化处理。本文研究结果可为水库预报调度风险管理提供决策参考。 相似文献
15.
Shinya Shimokawa Tomokazu Murakami Satoshi Iizuka Jun Yoshino Takashi Yasuda 《Natural Hazards》2014,74(3):2037-2052
We developed the new typhoon bogussing scheme to obtain the possible maximum typhoon approaching any region under any climatic conditions by using a potential vorticity inversion method. Numerical simulations with the new typhoon bogussing scheme are conducted for assessment of storm surges by possible maximum typhoons under the present-day and global warming climatic conditions in Ise and Tokyo Bays in Japan. The results suggest that the storm tide higher than the maximum storm tide in recorded history can occur in Ise and Tokyo Bays even for the present-day climate and the storm tide higher than the design sea level can cause severe damage to Nagoya and Tokyo megacities, in particular, airport facilities in Ise Bay for the global warming climate. These results suggest that the new typhoon bogussing scheme we developed is useful for assessment of impacts of storm surge by the possible maximum typhoons. 相似文献
16.
A geotechnical problem that involves several spatially correlated parameters can be best described using multivariate cross-correlated random fields. The joint distribution of these random variables cannot be uniquely defined using their marginal distributions and correlation coefficients alone. This paper presents a generic methodology for generating multivariate cross-correlated random fields. The joint distribution is rigorously established using a copula function that describes the dependence structure among the individual variables. The cross-correlated random fields are generated through Cholesky decomposition and conditional sampling based on the joint distribution. The random fields are verified regarding the anisotropic scales of fluctuation and copula parameters. 相似文献
17.
Coar Maxwell Sarreshtehdari Amir Garlock Maria Elhami Khorasani Negar 《Natural Hazards》2021,105(1):1-19
Typhoon Lionrock, also known as the national number 1610 in Japan, caused severe flooding in east Japan in August 28–31, 2016, leaving a death toll of 22. With a maximum sustained wind speed of ~?220 km/h from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s best track, Lionrock was classified as a category 4 hurricane in Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale and as a typhoon in Japan Meteorological Agency’s scale. Lionrock was among unique typhoons as it started its landfall from north of Japan. Here, we studied the characteristics of this typhoon through tide gauge data analysis, field surveys and numerical modeling. Tide gauge analysis showed that the surges generated by Lionrock were in the ranges of 15–55 cm with surge duration of 0.8–3.1 days. Our field surveys revealed that the damage to coastal communities/structures was moderate although it caused severe flooding inland. We measured a maximum coastal wave runup of 4.3 m in Iwaisaki. Such a runup was smaller than that generated by other category 4 typhoons hitting Japan in the past. Our numerical model was able to reproduce the storm surge generated by the 2016 Typhoon Lionrock. This validated numerical model can be used in the future for typhoon-hazard studies along the coast of northeastern Japan. Despite relatively small surge/wave runups in coastal areas, Lionrock’s death toll was more than that of some other category 4 typhoons. We attribute this to various primary (e.g., flooding, surges, waves, strong winds) and secondary (e.g., landslides, coastal erosions, debris flows, wind-blown debris) mechanisms and their combinations and interactions that contribute to damage/death during a typhoon event.
相似文献18.
ABSTRACTThis study investigates the storm surge caused by Typhoon Hato, which severely affected Macau, Hong Kong, and other coastal cities in China on 23 August 2017. A typhoon and storm surge coupling model demonstrated that the maximum storm surge height reached nearly 2.5?m along the coast of Macau, while that in Hong Kong was slightly below 2?m. Furthermore, a field survey of urban flooding revealed evidence of a 2.25-m inundation in downtown Macau and a 0.55-m inundation on Lantau Island, Hong Kong, which were likely exacerbated by a combination of storm surge, heavy rainfall, and surface water runoff over a complex hilly terrain. Significant wave overtopping and runup also occurred in beach and port areas. A typhoon track analysis confirmed that several comparably strong typhoons have followed similar ESE to WNW trajectories and made landfall in the Pearl River Delta in the last few decades. Although Hato was not the strongest of these storms, its forward speed of about 32.5?km/h was remarkably faster than those of other comparable typhoons. Higher levels of storm signal warnings were issued earlier in Hong Kong than in Macau, raising questions about the appropriate timing of warnings in these two nearby areas. Our analysis of the storm’s pattern suggests that both regions’ decisions regarding signal issuance could be considered reasonable or at least cannot be simply blamed, given the rapid motion and intensification of Hato and the associated economic risks at stake. 相似文献
19.
The literature indicates climate change is likely to cause more frequent and intense extreme weather events along with higher temperatures and altered precipitation. Taiwan frequently suffers from extremes in the form of typhoons, and their effects threaten both social stability and public security. Temperature effects through climate change are also expected to alter crime rates. We examine the immediate and longer-run impacts of typhoons and other climate variables on crime rates in Taiwan. The immediate results suggest that typhoon intensity has a significantly negative influence on rates of crime, including all violent crimes and automobile thefts. They also show that warmer temperatures have a strong positive effect on all violent crimes and all the subtypes of violent crimes. In addition, longer duration typhoons increase the immediate rates of all violent crimes, automobile thefts and muggings while decreasing the rate of burglaries. In the long run, we find that typhoon intensity, duration and landfall have persistent, lagged effects on crime that vary from negative to positive. For example, strong-intensity typhoons have significantly negative lagged effects on crimes 3–5 months in the future but positive lagged effects on crimes in future months 6–9. Finally, projections under the IPCC climate change scenarios show all violent crimes will increase. 相似文献
20.
Frequent debris flow disasters caused by heavy precipitation during the annual typhoon season are some of the most serious disasters in Taiwan. This study is on the debris flow disasters associated with the typhoons that hit Taiwan between 1986 and 2004. Typhoon data and records of debris flow disasters available for Nantou and Hualien counties in Taiwan were analyzed. The paths and rainfall characteristics of typhoons were found to have a great effect on the debris flows at these locations. Accordingly, the typhoons were grouped into four major types based on their paths and related disasters. The relationships between rainfall intensity and accumulation and debris flow are discussed for the four major typhoon types. The information may form the basis for providing useful indicators for disaster management. 相似文献