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1.
全新世以来青藏高原东部巴塘断裂带活动强烈,地形地貌和地质构造复杂,历史地震频发,并诱发大量滑坡灾害。基于巴塘断裂带地震滑坡长期防控的需要,在分析区域地质灾害成灾背景和发育分布特征的基础上,采用Newmark模型完成了巴塘断裂带50年超越概率10%的潜在地震滑坡危险性预测评价,并完成地震滑坡危险性区划。结果表明:巴塘断裂带及其临近的金沙江断裂带区域、金沙江及其支流沿岸具有较高的潜在地震滑坡危险性,地震滑坡危险区具有沿断裂带和大江大河等峡谷区分布的总体趋势,受活动断裂和地形地貌影响显著;距离断层越近、坡度越大的斜坡,地震滑坡危险性越高;规划建设中的川藏铁路经巴塘县德达乡、白玉县沙马乡,向西北延伸,跨越金沙江,可以穿越较少的地震滑坡危险区,金沙江水电工程规划建设需加强潜在地震滑坡危害研判及防控。巴塘断裂带潜在地震滑坡危险性评价结果可为区域城镇开发和重大工程规划建设的地震滑坡长期防控提供科学参考。 相似文献
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《China Geology》2023,6(2):228-240
The Sichuan-Tibet transportation corridor is located at the eastern margin of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, where the complex topography and geological conditions, developed geo-hazards have severely restricted the planning and construction of major projects. For the long-term prevention and early control of regional seismic landslides, based on analyzing seismic landslide characteristics, the Newmark model was used to carry out the potential seismic landslide hazard assessment with a 50-year beyond probability 10%. The results show that the high seismic landslide hazard is mainly distributed along large active tectonic belts and deep-cut river canyons, and are significantly affected by the active tectonics. The low seismic landslide hazard is mainly distributed in the flat terrain such as the Quaternary basins, broad river valleys, and plateau planation planes. The major east-west linear projects mainly pass through five areas with high seismic landslide hazard: Luding-Kangding section, Yajiang-Xinlong (Yalong river) section, Batang-Baiyu (Jinsha river) section, Basu (Nujiang river) section, and Bomi-Linzhi (eastern Himalaya syntaxis) section. The seismic action of the Bomi-Linzhi section can also induce high-risk geo-hazard chains such as the high-level glacial lake breaks and glacial debris flows. The early prevention of seismic landslides should be strengthened in the areas with high seismic landslide hazard.©2023 China Geology Editorial Office. 相似文献
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Ali Bagherzadeh Mohammad Reza Mansouri Daneshvar 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2013,6(9):3377-3388
Landslide hazard zonation is essential for planning future developmental activities. At the present study, after the preparation of a landslide inventory of the study area, nine factors as well as sub-data layers of factor class weights were tested for an integrated analysis of landslide hazard in the region. The produced factor maps were weighted with the analytic hierarchy process method and then classified into four classes—negligible, low, moderate, and high. The final produced map for landslide hazard zonation in Golestan watershed revealed that: (1) about 53.85 % of the basin is prone to moderate and high threats of landslides. (2) Landslide events at the Golestan watershed were strongly correlated to the slope angle of the basin. It was observed that the active landslide zones, including moderate to high landslide hazard classes, have a high correlation to slope classes over 30° (R 2?=?0.769). (3) The regions most susceptible to landslide hazard are those located south and southwest of the watershed, which included rock topples, falls, and debris landslides. 相似文献
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Garhwal Himalayas are seismically very active and simultaneously suffering from landslide hazards. Landslides are one of the most frequent natural hazards in Himalayas causing damages worth more than one billion US$ and around 200 deaths every year. Thus, it is of paramount importance to identify the landslide causative factors to study them carefully and rank them as per their influence on the occurrence of landslides. The difference image of GIS-derived landslide susceptibility zonation maps prepared for pre- and post-Chamoli earthquake shows the effect of seismic shaking on the occurrence of landslides in the Garhwal Himalaya. An attempt has been made to incorporate seismic shaking parameters in terms of peak ground acceleration with other static landslide causative factors to produce landslide susceptibility zonation map in geographic information system environment. In this paper, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis has been carried out to calculate peak ground acceleration values at different time periods for estimating seismic shaking conditions in the study area. Further, these values are used as one of the causative factors of landslides in the study area and it is observed that it refines the preparation of landslide susceptibility zonation map in seismically active areas like Garhwal Himalayas. 相似文献
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Influence of seismic acceleration on landslide susceptibility maps: a case study from NE Turkey (the Kelkit Valley) 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Particularly in the last decade, landslide susceptibility and hazard maps have been used for urban planning and site selection of infrastructures. Most of the procedures for preparing of landslide susceptibility maps need high-quality landslide inventory map. Although the rainfall and seismic activities are accepted as triggering factor for landslides, designation of the triggering factor for each landslide in the inventory is almost impossible when well-documented records are unavailable. Therefore, during preparation of landslide susceptibility map, whole landslide records in the inventory map are used together without classifying based on the triggering factors. Although seismic activity is accepted as a triggering factor, possible effect of the use of seismic activity on production of landslide susceptibility map was investigated in this study, and the subject is open to discussion. For this purpose, a series of stability analyses based on circular failure and infinite slope model were performed considering different pseudostatic conditions. The results of analyses show that gentle slopes have higher susceptibility to failure than steeper ones, even if their stability conditions (susceptibilities) are similar for static condition. The seismic forces acting on failure surfaces may not be sufficiently taken into consideration in the conventionally prepared landslide susceptibility maps. Employing the general decreasing trend in stability condition based on slope face angle and the seismic acceleration, a new procedure was introduced for preparing of the landslide susceptibility map for a scenario earthquake. The prediction performance of occurring landslides increased after the procedure was applied to the conventionally prepared landslide susceptibility map. According to the threshold independent spatial performance analyses of the proposed methodology and the produced landslide susceptibility maps, the area under ROC curve values were calculated as 0.801, 0.933, and 0.947 for the maps prepared by considering conventional method and scenario earthquakes having M w values of 5.5 and 7.5, respectively. 相似文献
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为查明川藏铁路卡子拉山隧道进口规划建设区地质灾害特征,评价其在川藏铁路建设和运营期间可能遭受的地质灾害风险,采用高精度遥感、机载LiDAR、工程地质勘查等“空-天-地”一体化技术对该隧道进口规划区开展调查研究。结果表明:川藏铁路卡子拉山隧道进口规划区内发育有1#、2#滑坡和俄洛堆不稳定斜坡;1#滑坡规模约32.48×106 m3,2#滑坡规模约10.15×106 m3,均为已发生的特大型岩质滑坡;俄洛堆不稳定斜坡位于2处滑坡中部,规模约35.80×104 m3,下部为强风化岩体,上部为碎石土结构,为中型复合型结构斜坡。评价认为:川藏铁路卡子拉山隧道进口选线从2处滑坡体中部山脊穿过,2处滑坡对铁路选线未构成地质安全风险,但隧道进口穿过的俄洛堆不稳定斜坡存在潜在地质安全风险;1#、2#滑坡体在天然工况下处于稳定状态,俄洛堆不稳定斜坡在天然和地震工况下处于稳定状态,在暴雨工况下处于欠稳定状态。为规避工程建设扰动诱发潜在的滑坡风险,建议将卡子拉山隧道选线进口向东南侧平移,通过边坡开挖的合理设计、施工期间的实时监测及运营期间的针对性治理等措施,从源头上对潜在滑坡风险进行防控,以保证工程建设及运营安全。研究结果可为川藏铁路选线提供科学的地质依据。 相似文献
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Landslide zonation studies emphasize on preparation of landslide hazard zonation maps considering major instability factors contributing to occurrence of landslides. This paper deals with geographic information system-based landslide hazard zonation in mid Himalayas of Himachal Pradesh from Mandi to Kullu by considering nine relevant instability factors to develop the hazard zonation map. Analytical hierarchy process was applied to assign relative weightages over all ranges of instability factors of the slopes in study area. To generate landslide hazard zonation map, layers in geographic information system were created corresponding to each instability factor. An inventory of existing major landslides in the study area was prepared and combined with the landslide hazard zonation map for validation purpose. The validation of the model was made using area under curve technique and reveals good agreement between the produced hazard map and previous landslide inventory with prediction accuracy of 79.08%. The landslide hazard zonation map was classified by natural break classifier into very low hazard, low hazard, moderate hazard, high hazard and very high landslide hazard classes in geographic information system depending upon the frequency of occurrence of landslides in each class. The resultant hazard zonation map shows that 14.30% of the area lies in very high hazard zone followed by 15.97% in high hazard zone. The proposed model provides the best-fit classification using hierarchical approach for the causative factors of landslides having complex structure. The developed hazard zonation map is useful for landslide preparedness, land-use planning, and social-economic and sustainable development of the region. 相似文献
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Landslide susceptibility analysis with a bivariate approach and GIS in Northern Iran 总被引：3，自引：3，他引：0
Globally, landslides cause hundreds of billions of dollars in damage and hundreds of thousands of deaths and injuries each year. A landslide susceptibility map describes areas where landslides are likely to occur in the future by correlating some of the principal factors that contribute to landslides with the past distribution of landslides. A case study is conducted in the mountainous northern Iran. In this study, a landslide susceptibility map of the study area was prepared using bivariate method with the help of the geographic information system. Area density (bivariate) method was used to weight landslide-influencing data layers. An overlay analysis is carried out by evaluating the layers obtained according to their weight and the landslide susceptibility map is produced. The study area was classified into five hazard classes: very low, low, moderate, high, and very high. The percentage distribution of landslide susceptibility degrees was calculated. It was found that about 26% of the study area is classified as very high and high hazard classes. 相似文献
11.
Owing to fragile geo-morphology, extreme climatic conditions, and densely populated settlements and rapid development activities, West Java Province is the most landslide hazardous area in Indonesia. So, a landslide risk map for this province bears a great importance such as for land-use planning. It is however widely accepted that landslide risk analysis is often difficult because of the difficulties involved in landslide hazard assessment and estimation of consequences of future landslide events. For instance, lack of multi-temporal inventory map or records of triggering events is often a major problem in landslide hazard mapping. In this study, we propose a simple technique for converting a landslide susceptibility map into a landslide hazard map, which we have employed for landslide risk analysis in one ideally hazardous part of volcanic mountains in West Java Province. The susceptibility analysis was carried out through correlation between past landslides and eight spatial parameters related to instability, i.e. slope, aspect, relative relief, distance to river, geological units, soil type, land use and distance to road. The obtained susceptibility map was validated using cross-time technique, and was collaborated with the frequency-area statistics to respond to ‘when landslide will occur’ and ‘how large it will be’. As for the judgment of the consequences of future landslides, expert opinion was used considering available literature and characteristic of the study area. We have only considered economic loss in terms of physical damage of buildings, roads and agricultural lands for the landslide risk analysis. From this study, we understand the following: (1) the hazard map obtained from conversion of the susceptibility map gives spatial probability and the area of an expected landslide will be greater than 500m2 in the next 2 years, (2) the landslide risk map shows that 24% of the total area is in high risk; 30% in moderate risk; 45% in low risk and no risk covers only 1% of the total area, and (3) the loss will be high in agricultural lands, while it will be low in the road structures and buildings. 相似文献
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Proposal of a method to define areas of landslide hazard and application to an area of the Dolomites, Italy 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
A numerical–cartographical method has been developed to create landslide hazard maps. This method allows the assigning of a rating to the various parameters which contribute to landslides. The parameters considered are: (1) erodibility and degradability of the rocks and Quaternary deposits; (2) permeability of the ground to identify areas prone to hydraulic overpressure; (3) the geometric ratio between discontinuities and slope, and thickness of Quaternary deposits; (4) angle of the slopes; and (5) land use. A thematic map is constructed for each factor considered which defines different areas through ratings, after which all the thematic maps are overlaid and the ratings added up (or multiplied). The map which is thus obtained is reclassified in order to create the final map of landslide hazard. This method, which has already been tested in various areas, has produced excellent results in this case too, allowing a map to be constructed which corresponds to the actual instability problems. 相似文献
13.
以穿越汶川震区的成兰铁路龙门山关键段为例, 探索提出了强震扰动背景下重大工程场区多尺度滑坡危险性评估方法。利用信息量模型反演评估了汶川地震诱发的同震滑坡空间分布特征, 以此为前提开展了区域和局地两种空间尺度的滑坡危险性预测评估。在区域廊带尺度上, 分别利用可能最大降雨量预测方法和信息量模型, 进行了日超越概率10%的最大降雨量时空分布预测及其诱发滑坡的危险性评估; 同时, 结合地震危险性区划成果, 开展了50年超越概率10%的基本地震动诱发滑坡的危险性评估。在局地场站尺度上, 利用基于崩塌运动过程模拟的Rockfall Analyst软件, 开展了柿子园大桥周边崩塌运动学特征(Runout)模拟和危险性评估。滑坡和崩塌危险性评估的结果分别为铁路规划选线和场站防护设计提供了不同尺度的地质安全依据。 相似文献
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Regional landslide-hazard assessment for Seattle, Washington, USA 总被引：13，自引：6，他引：13
Rex L. Baum Jeffery A. Coe Jonathan W. Godt Edwin L. Harp Mark E. Reid William Z. Savage William H. Schulz Dianne L. Brien Alan F. Chleborad Jonathan P. McKenna John A. Michael 《Landslides》2005,2(4):266-279
Landslides are a widespread, frequent, and costly hazard in Seattle and the Puget Sound area of Washington State, USA. Shallow
earth slides triggered by heavy rainfall are the most common type of landslide in the area; many transform into debris flows
and cause significant property damage or disrupt transportation. Large rotational and translational slides, though less common,
also cause serious property damage. The hundreds of landslides that occurred during the winters of 1995–96 and 1996–97 stimulated
renewed interest by Puget Sound communities in identifying landslide-prone areas and taking actions to reduce future landslide
losses. Informal partnerships between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the City of Seattle, and private consultants are
focusing on the problem of identifying and mapping areas of landslide hazard as well as characterizing temporal aspects of
the hazard. We have developed GIS-based methods to map the probability of landslide occurrence as well as empirical rainfall
thresholds and physically based methods to forecast times of landslide occurrence. Our methods for mapping landslide hazard
zones began with field studies and physically based models to assess relative slope stability, including the effects of material
properties, seasonal groundwater levels, and rainfall infiltration. We have analyzed the correlation between historic landslide
occurrence and relative slope stability to map the degree of landslide hazard. The City of Seattle is using results of the
USGS studies in storm preparedness planning for emergency access and response, planning for development or redevelopment of
hillsides, and municipal facility planning and prioritization. Methods we have developed could be applied elsewhere to suit
local needs and available data. 相似文献
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Landslide susceptibility analysis using probabilistic likelihood ratio model—a geospatial-based study 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
E. Ramani Sujatha Victor Rajamanickam P. Kumaravel E. Saranathan 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2013,6(2):429-440
The crucial and difficult task in landslide susceptibility analysis is estimating the probability of occurrence of future landslides in a study area under a specific set of geomorphic and topographic conditions. This task is addressed with a data-driven probabilistic model using likelihood ratio or frequency ratio and is applied to assess the occurrence of landslides in the Tevankarai Ar sub-watershed, Kodaikkanal, South India. The landslides in the study area are triggered by heavy rainfall. Landslide-related factors—relief, slope, aspect, plan curvature, profile curvature, land use, soil, and topographic wetness index proximity to roads and proximity to lineaments—are considered for the study. A geospatial database of the related landslide factors is constructed using Arcmap in GIS environment. Landslide inventory of the area is produced by detailed field investigation and analysis of the topographical maps. The results are validated using temporal data of known landslide locations. The area under the curve shows that the accuracy of the model is 85.83%. In the reclassified final landslide susceptibility map, 14.48% of the area is critical in nature, falling under the very high hazard zone, and 67.86% of the total validation dataset landslides fall in this zone. This landslide susceptibility map is a vital tool for town planning, land use, and land cover planning and to reduce risks caused by landslides. 相似文献
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Mapping landslide susceptibility in Travis County, Texas, USA 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
A geographic information system (GIS) was used to construct a landslide hazard map for Travis County, Texas. The County is experiencing rapid growth, and development has encroached into unstable terrain that is vulnerable to landslides. Four layers of data were superimposed to create the landslide hazard map. Slope was given the most emphasis, followed by geology, vegetation, and proximity to faults. The final map shows areas of low, medium, and high landslide susceptibility. Areas of high susceptibility occupy stream and reservoir banks, rock escarpments, and agricultural land. The landslide hazard map can be a useful geologic criterion for land use planning. Planners can use the map to allocate appropriate land uses to unstable terrain, and to identify existing structures at risk from landslide activity. The methods presented in this paper can be adapted to other counties in the U.S. and elsewhere. Results of this study suggest that geographic information systems can effectively compile and overlay several data layers relevant to landslide hazards. 相似文献
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提高降雨型滑坡危险性预警精度和空间辨识度具有重要意义.以江西宁都县1980—2001年156个降雨型滑坡为例,首先基于传统的EE-D(early effective rainfall-rainfall duration)阈值法计算不同降雨诱发滑坡的时间概率级别;然后以各级别临界降雨阈值曲线对应的时间概率为因变量,并以对应的前期有效降雨量(early effective rainfall,EE)和降雨历时(D)为自变量,采用逻辑回归拟合出上述因变量与自变量之间的非线性关系,得到降雨诱发滑坡的连续概率值;之后对比C5.0决策树和多层感知器的滑坡易发性预测性能;最后利用降雨诱发滑坡的连续概率值与易发性图相耦合以实现连续概率滑坡危险性预警.结果显示：(1)宁都降雨型滑坡连续概率值的逻辑回归方程为1/P=1+e4.062+0.747 4×D-0.079 44×EE,其拟合优度为0.983;(2)2002—2003年的20处用于连续概率阈值测试的降雨型滑坡大都落在连续概率值大于0.7的区域,只有4处落在小于0.7的区域;(3)C5.0决策树预测滑坡易发性的精度显著高于多层感知... 相似文献
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Impact of seismic factors on landslide susceptibility zonation: a case study in part of Indian Himalayas 总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6
Landslides are one of the most widespread natural hazards in high mountain terrains such as the Himalayas, which are one of
the youngest tectonically and seismically active mountain ranges in the world. The crustal movements along the longitudinal
thrusts and transverse faults give rise to earthquakes and in turn initiate landslides in the region. In fact, in addition
to various static factors causing landslides, earthquakes are one of the major causes of landslides. It is thus imperative
to incorporate seismic factor also while carrying out landslide susceptibility zonation map preparation in a seismically active
areas like Garhwal Himalayas. In this paper, a study on the effect of earthquakes on landslide susceptibility zonation has
been demonstrated by taking Chamoli earthquake as an example. 相似文献
19.
川藏交通廊道典型高位滑坡地质力学模式 总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7
川藏交通廊道穿越青藏高原东缘高山峡谷区,大型—巨型高位滑坡多发频发,是铁路、高速公路等交通设施规划建设必须考虑的重要因素。在区域成灾地质背景分析和现场调查的基础上,以地貌特征、斜坡岩体结构、促发条件等为基本要素,总结归纳了川藏交通廊道典型高位滑坡的6类地质力学模式,包括:堆积体滑移型、顺层滑移拉裂型、卸荷剪断型、岩溶贯通拉裂型、崩滑溃散型和构造控制型等。结合典型高位滑坡案例,重点剖析了各类滑坡启动的简化力学机制,并给出了相应的成因解析。综合考虑不同类型高位滑坡的控制因素和易发性分区结果,初步圈定了川藏铁路雅安—林芝段高位滑坡易发靶区,对高位滑坡隐患早期识别、重大工程选址选线和防灾减灾具有重要的指导作用。 相似文献
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A logistic regression model is developed within the framework of a Geographic Information System (GIS) to map landslide hazards
in a mountainous environment. A case study is conducted in the mountainous southern Mackenzie Valley, Northwest Territories,
Canada. To determine the factors influencing landslides, data layers of geology, surface materials, land cover, and topography
were analyzed by logistic regression analysis, and the results are used for landslide hazard mapping. In this study, bedrock,
surface materials, slope, and difference between surface aspect and dip direction of the sedimentary rock were found to be
the most important factors affecting landslide occurrence. The influence on landslides by interactions among geologic and
geomorphic conditions is also analyzed, and used to develop a logistic regression model for landslide hazard mapping. The
comparison of the results from the model including the interaction terms and the model not including the interaction terms
indicate that interactions among the variables were found to be significant for predicting future landslide probability and
locating high hazard areas. The results from this study demonstrate that the use of a logistic regression model within a GIS
framework is useful and suitable for landslide hazard mapping in large mountainous geographic areas such as the southern Mackenzie
Valley. 相似文献