Naturalizing the freezeup regimes of regulated rivers and exploring implications to spring ice-jam flooding     

Spyros Beltaos  Daniel L. Peters 《水文研究》2021,35(8):e14321

Naturalization of the flow hydrograph and ice regime is a key step in assessment of ecological and socioeconomic impacts of regulation across large portions of Europe, Asia and North America, where many rivers are dammed for hydropower generation. Building on previous naturalization of early-freshet flows that influence the nature of breakup and jamming events, novel methodology is developed to estimate natural freezeup flows and thence determine associated water levels, also known to influence subsequent breakup events. Using reservoir inflows, the new methodology is applied to the lower portion of the regulated Peace River, Canada, which forms the northern boundary of the Peace-Athabasca Delta (PAD), a Ramsar wetland of international importance that partially depends on spring ice-jam flooding for recharge of its high-elevation, or “perched” basins. The PAD provides habitat for numerous aquatic, terrestrial and avian species and is vital to the maintenance of indigenous culture and lifeways. Naturalized freezeup levels in the lower Peace River are shown to be nearly always lower than corresponding regulated values, with the difference averaging ~1.6 m. Consistent with known physics of river ice breakup processes, the present results suggest that ice-jam flood frequency would likely have been greater under natural conditions. Though potentially adverse from the ecological standpoint, reduction of spring ice-jam flooding can benefit riverside communities. Implications of the present results to and comparison with, other Canadian and international rivers are discussed.  相似文献   

Multiple model combination methods for annual maximum water level prediction during river ice breakup          下载免费PDF全文

Wei Sun  Bernard Trevor 《水文研究》2018,32(3):421-435

The Athabasca River is the largest unregulated river in Alberta, Canada, with ice jams frequently occurring in the vicinity of Fort McMurray. Modelling tools are desired to forecast ice‐related flood events. Multiple model combination methods can often obtain better predictive performances than any member models due to possible variance reduction of forecast errors or correction of biases. However, few applications of this method to river ice forecasting are reported. Thus, a framework of multiple model combination methods for maximum breakup water level (MBWL) Prediction during river ice breakup is proposed. Within the framework, the member models describe the relations between the MBWL (predicted variable) and their corresponding indicators (predictor variables); the combining models link the relations between the predicted MBWL by each member model and the observed MBWL. Especially, adaptive neuro‐fuzzy inference systems, artificial neural networks, and multiple linear regression are not only employed as member models but also as combining models. Simple average methods (SAM) are selected as the basic combining model due to simple calculations. In the SAM, an equal weight (1/n) is assigned to n member models. The historical breakup data of the Athabasca River at Fort McMurray for the past 36 years (1980 to 2015) are collected to facilitate the comparison of models. These models are examined using the leave‐one‐out cross validation and the holdout validation methods. A SAM, which is the average output from three optimal member models, is selected as the best model as it has the optimal validation performance (lowest average squared errors). In terms of lowest average squared errors, the SAM improves upon the optimal artificial neural networks, adaptive neuro‐fuzzy inference systems, and multiple linear regression member models by 21.95%, 30.97%, and 24.03%, respectively. This result sheds light on the effectiveness of combining different forecasting models when a scarce river ice data set is investigated. The indicators included in the SAM may indicate that the MBWL is affected by water flow conditions just after freeze‐up, overall freezing conditions during winter, and snowpack conditions before breakup.  相似文献   

Climate impacts on extreme ice-jam events in Canadian rivers     

SPYROS BELTAOS  TERRY D. PROWSE 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(1):157-181

Abstract

River ice jams can produce extreme flood events with major social, economic and ecological impacts throughout Canada. Ice breakup and jamming processes are briefly reviewed and shown to be governed by the flow hydrograph, the thickness and strength of the winter ice cover, and the stream morphology. These factors are directly or indirectly influenced by weather conditions which implies potential impacts of climate change and variability on the severity of ice-jamming. Relevant work has to date focused on simple measures of climatic effects, such as the timing of freeze-up and breakup, and indicates trends that are consistent with concomitant changes in air temperature. More recently, it has been found that increased incidence of mid-winter breakup events and higher freshet flows in certain parts of Canada could enhance the frequency and severity of ice jams. Possible future trends under climate warming scenarios are discussed and associated impacts identified in a general manner.  相似文献   

Geographical analysis of river floods and their causes in southern East Siberia     

《水文科学杂志》2013,58(3):450-464

Abstract

On the basis of analysing the genesis, recurrence and severity of flood hazards, a regional flood hazard analysis of the southern area of East Siberia has been carried out. The greatest flood hazard corresponds to the relatively densely populated area of southern East Siberia: the Upper Yenisei, Angara and Upper Lena river basins and the Lake Baikal watershed. Typically, the most hazardous floods include those caused by surges produced by damage to the dams of the Angara—Yenisei hydropower cascade; flash floods are also an extreme hazard. Maximum runoff factors were used to delineate regions within the study area, and the hazard severity was scored for the Irkutsk region. An inventory of the ice-dam and ice-jam areas, as well as of the streamflow sites with maximum runoff of different origins predominating in the Angara and Lena river basins, showed that the study area includes 78 and 19 ice-dam and ice-jam locations, respectively. A high recurrence of ice dams and ice jams is also observed on other rivers.  相似文献   

Modeling the Development of Ice Phenomena in Rivers as Applied to the Assessment of Probable Changes in Ice Conditions at Various Scenarios of the Future Climate     

Borshch  S. V.  Ginzburg  B. M.  Soldatova  I. I. 《Water Resources》2001,28(2):194-200

The results of investigations of the alteration in river ice regime associated with the global climate warming are presented. It is shown that a simple model based on the relationship between the dates of ice phenomena and the average air temperature for the preceding month can be used for the assessment of probable changes in ice phenomena at various scenarios of the future climate. It is found that as a rule, the allowance made for the rate of streamflow in autumn does not improve the assessment of the probable dates of river freeze-up, whereas the model of the process of river breakup allows improving the estimates of the relevant shifts in the dates.  相似文献   

Evaluating the effect of snow and ice melt in an Alpine headwater catchment and further downstream in the River Rhine     

Nadine Junghans  Johannes Cullmann  Matthias Huss 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(6):981-993

Abstract

The runoff regime of glacierized headwater catchments in the Alps is essentially characterized by snow and ice melt. High Alpine drainage basins influence distant downstream catchments of the Rhine River basin. In particular, during the summer months, low-flow conditions are probable with strongly reduced snow and ice melt under climate change conditions. This study attempts to quantify present and future contributions from snow and ice melt to summer runoff at different spatial scales. For the small Silvretta catchment (103 km²) in the Swiss Alps, with a glacierization of 7%, the HBV model and the glacio-hydrological model GERM are applied for calculating future runoff based on different regional climate scenarios. We evaluate the importance of snow and ice melt in the runoff regime. Comparison of the models indicates that the HBV model strongly overestimates the future contribution of glacier melt to runoff, as glaciers are considered as static components. Furthermore, we provide estimates of the current meltwater contribution of glaciers for several catchments downstream on the River Rhine during the month of August. Snow and ice melt processes have a significant direct impact on summer runoff, not only for high mountain catchments, but also for large transboundary basins. A future shift in the hydrological regime and the disappearance of glaciers might favour low-flow conditions during summer along the Rhine.

Citation Junghans, N., Cullmann, J. & Huss, M. (2011) Evaluating the effect of snow and ice melt in an Alpine headwater catchment and further downstream in the River Rhine. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(6), 981–993.  相似文献   

Inundation extent as a key parameter for assessing the magnitude and return period of flooding events in southern Iceland     

Emmanuel Pagneux  Guðrún Gísladóttir  Árni Snorrason 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(5):704-716

Abstract

River flow conditions in many watersheds of Iceland are particularly disturbed during winter by the formation, drifting and accumulation of river ice, whose impact on water encroachment and extent of inundations is not reflected in the discharge records. It is therefore necessary to use river discharge with great caution when assessing the magnitude of past inundations in Iceland, and to give attention to other flood magnitude parameters. A GIS-based methodology is presented that focuses on inundation extent as an alternative parameter for the assessment and ranking of the magnitude of past flooding events in the Ölfusá-Hvítá basin, known as one of the most dangerous flood-prone river complexes in Iceland. Relying ultimately on a macro-scale grid, the method enabled the reconstruction of the extent of inundations, the delineation of the flood plain, and, finally, some estimation of the likelihood of flooding of exposed areas that include marine submergences and river floods for both open water and ice conditions.

Citation Pagneux, E., Gísladóttir, G. & Snorrason, Á. (2010) Inundation extent as a key parameter for assessing the magnitude and return period of flooding events in southern Iceland. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(5), 704–716.  相似文献   

Delineating extent and magnitude of river flooding to lakes across a northern delta using water isotope tracers     

Casey R. Remmer  Tanner Owca  Laura Neary  Johan A. Wiklund  Mitchell Kay  Brent B. Wolfe  Roland I. Hall 《水文研究》2020,34(2):303-320

Hydrological monitoring in complex, dynamic northern floodplain landscapes is challenging, but increasingly important as a consequence of multiple stressors. The Peace-Athabasca Delta in northern Alberta, Canada, is a Ramsar Wetland of International Importance reliant on episodic river ice-jam flood events to recharge abundant perched lakes and wetlands. Improved and systematic monitoring of landscape-scale hydrological connectivity among freshwater ecosystems (rivers, channels, wetlands, and lakes) is needed to guide stewardship decisions in the face of climate change and upstream industrial development. Here, we use water isotope compositions, supplemented by measurements of specific conductivity and field observations, from 68 lakes and 9 river sites in May 2018 to delineate the extent and magnitude of spring ice-jam induced flooding along the Peace and Athabasca rivers. Lake-specific estimates of input water isotope composition (δ_I) were modelled after accounting for influence of evaporative isotopic enrichment. Then, using the distinct isotopic signature of input water sources, we develop a set of binary mixing models and estimate the proportion of input to flooded lakes attributable to river floodwater and precipitation (snow or rain). This approach allowed identification of areas and magnitude of flooding that were not captured by other methods, including direct observations from flyovers, and to demarcate flow pathways in the delta. We demonstrate water isotope tracers as an efficient and effective monitoring tool for delineating spatial extent and magnitude of an important hydrological process and elucidating connectivity in the Peace-Athabasca Delta, an approach that can be readily adopted at other floodplain landscapes.  相似文献   

A comparison of frameworks for separating the impacts of human activities and climate change on river flow in existing records and different near-future scenarios     

Soghra Andaryani  Vahid Nourani  James Ball  Saeed Jahanbakhsh Asl  Hamidreza Keshtkar  Dennis Trolle 《水文研究》2021,35(7):e14301

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Impact assessment of climatic and land-use changes on flood runoff in southeast Queensland     

Yi-Ru Chen  Bofu Yu 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(10):1759-1769

Abstract

Over the past century, land-use has changed in southeast Queensland, and when coupled with climatic change, the risk of flooding has increased. This research aims to examine impacts of climate and land-use changes on flood runoff in southeast Queensland, Australia. A rainfall–runoff model, RORB, was calibrated and validated using observed flood hydrographs for one rural and one urbanized catchment, for 1961–1990. The validated model was then used to generate flood hydrographs using projected rainfall based on two climate models: the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model 2.1 (GFDL CM2.1) and the Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM), for 2016–2045. Projected daily rainfall for the two contrasting periods was used to derive adjustment factors for a given frequency of occurrence. Two land-use change scenarios were used to evaluate likely impacts. Based on the projected rainfall, the results showed that, in both catchments, future flood magnitudes are unlikely to increase for large flood events. Extreme land-use change would significantly impact flooding in the rural catchment, but not the urbanized catchment.