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1.
ABSTRACT

Downscaling of climate projections is the most adapted method to assess the impacts of climate change at regional and local scales. This study utilized both spatial and temporal downscaling approaches to develop intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) relations for sub-daily rainfall extremes in the Perth airport area. A multiple regression-based statistical downscaling model tool was used for spatial downscaling of daily rainfall using general circulation models (GCMs) (Hadley Centre’s GCM and Canadian Global Climate Model) climate variables. A simple scaling regime was identified for 30 minutes to 24 hours duration of observed annual maximum (AM) rainfall. Then, statistical properties of sub-daily AM rainfall were estimated by scaling an invariant model based on the generalized extreme value distribution. RMSE, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient and percentage bias values were estimated to check the accuracy of downscaled sub-daily rainfall. This proved the capability of the proposed approach in developing a linkage between large-scale GCM daily variables and extreme sub-daily rainfall events at a given location. Finally IDF curves were developed for future periods, which show similar extreme rainfall decreasing trends for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s for both GCMs.
Editor M.C. Acreman; Associate editor S. Kanae  相似文献   

2.
ABSTRACT

Taking a representative catchment of the Yangtze River Delta region as the study area, this research evaluated sub-daily rainstorm variability and its potential effects on flood processes based on an integrated approach of the HEC-HMS model and design storm hyetographs. The results show that the intensities of rainfall on sub-daily scale are getting more extreme. The annual maximum 1-, 2- and 3-hour rainstorms followed significant upward trends with increases of 0.32, 0.43 and 0.44 mm per year, respectively, while the annual maximum 6-, 12- and 24-h events had non-significant rising trends. The detected significant trends in short-duration rainstorms were then used to redesign storm hyetographs to drive the HEC-HMS model, the results show that these changes in short-duration rainstorm characteristics would increase the flood peak discharge and flood volume. These findings indicate that regional flood control capabilities must be improved to manage the adverse impacts of rainfall variation under changing environments.  相似文献   

3.
Abstract

Heavy rainfall events often occur in southern French Mediterranean regions during the autumn, leading to catastrophic flood events. A non-stationary peaks-over-threshold (POT) model with climatic covariates for these heavy rainfall events is developed herein. A regional sample of events exceeding the threshold of 100 mm/d is built using daily precipitation data recorded at 44 stations over the period 1958–2008. The POT model combines a Poisson distribution for the occurrence and a generalized Pareto distribution for the magnitude of the heavy rainfall events. The selected covariates are the seasonal occurrence of southern circulation patterns for the Poisson distribution parameter, and monthly air temperature for the generalized Pareto distribution scale parameter. According to the deviance test, the non-stationary model provides a better fit to the data than a classical stationary model. Such a model incorporating climatic covariates instead of time allows one to re-evaluate the risk of extreme precipitation on a monthly and seasonal basis, and can also be used with climate model outputs to produce future scenarios. Existing scenarios of the future changes projected for the covariates included in the model are tested to evaluate the possible future changes on extreme precipitation quantiles in the study area.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor K. Hamed

Citation Tramblay, Y., Neppel, L., Carreau, J., and Najib, K., 2013. Non-stationary frequency analysis of heavy rainfall events in southern France. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (2), 280–294.  相似文献   

4.
In this work, the multifractal properties of hourly rainfall data recorded at a location in Southern Spain have been related to the scale properties of the corresponding intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves. Four parametric models for the IDF curves have been fitted to the quantiles of rainfall obtained using the generalized Pareto frequency distribution function with the extreme data series obtained for the same place. The scaling of the rainfall intensity moments has been analysed, and the empirical moments scaling exponent function has been obtained. The corresponding values of q1 and γ1 have been empirical and theoretically calculated and compared with some characteristics of the different IDF models. Thus, the scaling behaviour of IDF curves has been analysed, and the best model has been selected. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

5.
Rainfall extremes often result in the occurrence of flood events with associated loss of life and infrastructure in Malawi. However, an understanding of the frequency of occurrence of such extreme events either for design or disaster planning purposes is often limited by data availability at the desired temporal and spatial scales. Regionalisation, which involves “trading time for space” by pooling together observations for stations with similar behavior, is an alternative approach for more accurate determination of extreme events even at ungauged areas or sites with short records. In this study, regional frequency analysis of rainfall extremes in Southern Malawi, large parts of which are flood prone, was undertaken. Observed 1-, 3-, 5- and 7-day annual maximum rainfall series for the period 1978–2007 at 23 selected rainfall stations in Southern Malawi were analysed. Cluster analysis using scaled at-site characteristics was used to determine homogeneous rainfall regions. L-moments were applied to derive regional index rainfall quantiles. The procedure also validated the three rainfall regions identified through homogeneity and heterogeneity tests based on Monte Carlo simulations with regional average L-moment ratios fitted to the Kappa distribution. Based on assessments of the accuracy of the derived index rainfall quantiles, it was concluded that the performance of this regional approach was satisfactory when validated for sites not included in the sample data. The study provides an estimate of the regional characteristics of rainfall extremes that can be useful in among others flood mitigation and engineering design.  相似文献   

6.
Abstract

The effect of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on rainfall characteristics in the tropical peatland areas of Central Kalimantan, Indonesia, is demonstrated. This research used rainfall data collected between 1978 and 2008. The results suggest a relationship between ENSO events and the trend in rainfall observed in the study area. Further analyses show that El Niño events have a stronger effect on the rainfall compared to La Niña events. El Niño events were also correlated to the increase in the number of days with less than 1 mm of rainfall in the dry season. The analysis reveals that the impact of El Niño events on rainfall in dry seasons is intensifying annually. Furthermore, ENSO events are not the only factors affecting rainfall trends in the observed area. Other factors, such as deforestation, may also affect the trend.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz

Citation Susilo, G.E., Yamamoto, K., Imai, T., Ishii, Y., Fukami, H., and Sekine, M., 2013. The effect of ENSO on rainfall characteristics in the tropical peatland areas of Central Kalimantan, Indonesia. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (3), 539–548.  相似文献   

7.
Abstract

Intensity–Duration–Frequency (IDF) curves for precipitation constitute a probabilistic tool and have proven useful in water resources management. In particular, IDF curves for precipitation enable questions on the extreme character of precipitation to be answered. The construction of IDF curves for precipitation is difficult or impossible in tropical areas due to the lack of long-term extreme precipitation data. A technique is proposed to overcome this shortcoming by combining limited high-frequency information on rainfall extremes with long-term daily rainfall information. It may be regarded as an extension of Koutsoyiannis' approach. Using this technique, IDF curves for precipitation are produced for Lubumbashi in Congo.

Citation Van de Vyver, H. & Demarée, G. R. (2010) Construction of Intensity–Duration–Frequency (IDF) curves for precipitation at Lubumbashi, Congo, under the hypothesis of inadequate data. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(4), 555–564.  相似文献   

8.
Abstract

This analysis was undertaken to develop appropriate extreme flood design criteria for a nuclear power plant at Halileh, near Bushehr, Iran, adjacent to the Persian Gulf. Graphical relationships presented provide a convenient means of estimating the probable maximum precipitation and the 2- to 100-year return period rainfall events with durations from 5 min to 24 h. The relationships may be applied for drainage areas up to 25 km2. Probable maximum precipitation and 2- to 100-year return period rainfall events were estimated. Precipitation depth-duration relationships were derived.  相似文献   

9.
Intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves of extreme rainfall are used extensively in infrastructure design and water resources management. In this study, a novel regional framework based on quantile regression (QR) is used to estimate rainfall IDF curves at ungauged locations. Unlike standard regional approaches, such as index-storm and at-site ordinary least-squares regression, which are dependent on parametric distributional assumptions, the non-parametric QR approach directly estimates rainfall quantiles as a function of physiographic characteristics. Linear and nonlinear methods are evaluated for both the regional delineation and IDF curve estimation steps. Specifically, delineation by canonical correlation analysis (CCA) and nonlinear CCA (NLCCA) is combined, in turn, with linear QR and nonlinear QR estimation in a regional modelling framework. An exhaustive comparative study is conducted between standard regional methods and the proposed QR framework at sites across Canada. Overall, the fully nonlinear QR framework, which uses NLCCA for delineation and nonlinear QR for estimation of IDF curves at ungauged sites, leads to the best results.  相似文献   

10.
Estimates of changes in design rainfall values for Canada   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
Annual maximum rainfall data from 51 stations in Canada were analyzed for trends and changes by using the Mann–Kendall trend test and a bootstrap resampling approach, respectively. Rainfall data were analyzed for nine durations ranging from 5 min to 24 h. The data analyzed are typically used in the development of intensity‐duration‐frequency (IDF) curves, which are used for estimating design rainfall values that form an input for the design of critical water infrastructure. The results reveal more increasing than decreasing trends and changes in the data with more increasing changes and larger changes, noted for the longer rainfall durations. The results also indicate that a traditional trend test may not be sufficient when the interest is in identifying changes in design rainfall quantiles. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

11.
Abstract

Statistical analysis of extreme events is often carried out to predict large return period events. In this paper, the use of partial L-moments (PL-moments) for estimating hydrological extremes from censored data is compared to that of simple L-moments. Expressions of parameter estimation are derived to fit the generalized logistic (GLO) distribution based on the PL-moments approach. Monte Carlo analysis is used to examine the sampling properties of PL-moments in fitting the GLO distribution to both GLO and non-GLO samples. Finally, both PL-moments and L-moments are used to fit the GLO distribution to 37 annual maximum rainfall series of raingauge station Kampung Lui (3118102) in Selangor, Malaysia, and it is found that analysis of censored rainfall samples of PL-moments would improve the estimation of large return period events.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor K. Hamed

Citation Zakaria, Z.A., Shabri, A. and Ahmad, U.N., 2012. Estimation of the generalized logistic distribution of extreme events using partial L-moments. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (3), 424–432.  相似文献   

12.
Heavy rainfall events during the fall season are causing extended damages in Mediterranean catchments. A peaks‐over‐threshold model is developed for the extreme daily areal rainfall occurrence and magnitude in fall over six catchments in Southern France. The main driver of the heavy rainfall events observed in this region is the humidity flux (FHUM) from the Mediterranean Sea. Reanalysis data are used to compute the daily FHUM during the period 1958–2008, to be included as a covariate in the model parameters. Results indicate that the introduction of FHUM as a covariate can improve the modelling of extreme areal precipitation. The seasonal average of FHUM can improve the modelling of the seasonal occurrences of heavy rainfall events, whereas daily FHUM values can improve the modelling of the events magnitudes. In addition, an ensemble of simulations produced by five different general circulation models are considered to compute FHUM in future climate with the emission scenario A1B and hence to evaluate the effect of climate change on the heavy rainfall distribution in the selected catchments. This ensemble of climate models allows the evaluation of the uncertainties in climate projections. By comparison to the reference period 1960–1990, all models project an amplification of the mean seasonal FHUM from the Mediterranean Sea for the projection period 2070–2099, on average by +22%. This increase in FHUM leads to an increase in the number of heavy rainfall events, from an average of 2.55 events during the fall season in present climate to 3.57 events projected for the period 2070–2099. However, the projected changes have limited effects on the magnitude of extreme events, with only a 5% increase in the median of the 100‐year quantiles. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

13.
Abstract

Abstract This paper aims to show the benefit of a regional approach for the estimation of rare daily rainfall. The studied region is Languedoc-Roussillon (south of France), where recent exceptional storms necessitate the revision of the statistical distributions, particularly their asymptotic tails over extreme values. The example of a large single-site time series of maximum daily rainfall at Marseille (1864–2002), very close to the studied region, shows a hyper-exponential behaviour for extreme events. At the regional scale, the homogenization process of daily maximum rainfall has been performed by considering that the coefficients of variation of the yearly maximum daily rainfall are stationary over the study zone. Two regional sample studies have been carried out on 15 and 23 gauges, randomly distributed in space, and a similar distribution could be fitted to both samples. As in the case of Marseille, the regional distribution shows a hyper-exponential asymptotic behaviour at the extreme values. The obtained regional distribution provides a systematic method for computation of rare daily rainfall that may be applied in every part of the studied region and, when compared with previous estimations, leads to a significant increase in the depth of rare rainfall.  相似文献   

14.
Abstract

The hydrological response of a small agroforestry catchment in northwest Spain (Corbeira catchment, 16 km2) is analysed, with particular focus on rainfall events. Fifty-four rainfall–runoff events, from December 2004 to September 2007, were used to analyse the principal hydrological patterns and show which factors best explain the hydrological response. The nonlinearity between rainfall and runoff showed that the variability in the hydrological response of the catchment was linked to the seasonal dynamics of the rainfall and, to a lesser extent, to evapotranspiration. The runoff coefficient, estimated as the ratio between direct runoff and rainfall volume, on an event basis, was analysed as a function of rainfall characteristics (amount and intensity) and the initial catchment state conditions prior to an event, such as pre-event baseflow and antecedent rainfall index. The results revealed that the hydrological response depends both on the soil humidity conditions at the start of the event and on rainfall amount, whereas rainfall intensity presented only a significant correlation with discharge increment. The antecedent conditions seem to be a key point in runoff production, and they explain much of the response. The hydrographs are characterized by a steep rising limb, a relatively narrow peak discharge and slow recession limb. These data and the observations suggest that the subsurface flow is the dominant runoff process.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor T. Wagener

Citation Rodríguez-Blanco, M.L., Taboada-Castro, M.M. and Taboada-Castro, M.T., 2012. Rainfall–runoff response and event-based runoff coefficients in a humid area (northwest Spain). Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (3), 445–459.  相似文献   

15.
Book reviews     
Abstract

Statistical and deterministic modelling estimates of flood magnitudes and frequencies that can affect flood-plain ecology in the upper Ahuriri River catchment, a mountainous high country catchment in the New Zealand Southern Alps, were evaluated. Statistical analysis of 46 years of historical data showed that floods are best modelled by the generalized extreme value and lognormal distributions. We evaluated application of the HEC-HMS model to this environment by modelling flood events of various frequencies. Model results were validated and compared with the statistical estimates. The SCS curve number method was used for losses and runoff generation, and the model was very sensitive to curve number. The HEC-HMS flood estimates matched the statistical estimates reasonably well, and, over all return periods, were on average approximately 1% greater. However, the model generally underestimated flood peaks up to the 25-year event and overestimated magnitudes above this. The results compared well with other regional estimates, including studies based on L-moments, and showed that this catchment has smaller floods than other similarly-sized catchments in the Southern Alps.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor H. Aksoy

Citation Caruso, B.S., Rademaker, M., Balme, A., and Cochrane, T.A., 2013. Flood modelling in a high country mountain catchment, New Zealand: comparing statistical and deterministic model estimates for ecological flows. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (2), 328–341.  相似文献   

16.
The study focuses on the spatial and temporal variations of intense/extreme rainfall events over Gujarat State (India) during the period 1970–2014. Average monsoon rainfall for the state shows a significant increasing trend, with an increase of 48 mm/decade. Some of the stations in the Saurashtra region show a statistically significant increasing trend but none of the stations in the state show a decreasing trend. The increasing trend in monsoon rainfall is very significant for the past three decades, with an increase of 167 mm/decade. Instead of fixed absolute threshold values, relative threshold values of rainfall corresponding to the 95th, 98th, 99th and 99.5th percentiles for each station have been proposed to represent heavy, very heavy, intense and extreme rainfall, which varied between 70–120, 105–160, 130–210 and 165–280 mm, respectively. Significant increasing trends are observed for the frequency of heavy and very heavy rainfall events over the state.  相似文献   

17.
The correct identification of homogeneous areas in regional rainfall frequency analysis is fundamental to ensure the best selection of the probability distribution and the regional model which produce low bias and low root mean square error of quantiles estimation. In an attempt at rainfall spatial homogeneity, the paper explores a new approach that is based on meteo-climatic information. The results are verified ex-post using standard homogeneity tests applied to the annual maximum daily rainfall series. The first step of the proposed procedure selects two different types of homogeneous large regions: convective macro-regions, which contain high values of the Convective Available Potential Energy index, normally associated with convective rainfall events, and stratiform macro-regions, which are characterized by low values of the Q vector Divergence index, associated with dynamic instability and stratiform precipitation. These macro-regions are identified using Hot Spot Analysis to emphasize clusters of extreme values of the indexes. In the second step, inside each identified macro-region, homogeneous sub-regions are found using kriging interpolation on the mean direction of the Vertically Integrated Moisture Flux. To check the proposed procedure, two detailed examples of homogeneous sub-regions are examined.  相似文献   

18.
Most of meteorological stations in Chile register rainfall amounts once every 24 h. The creation of intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves requires continuous recorded data, and this insufficiency of proper instrumentation has resulted in a lack of IDF curves nationwide. The objective of this study is to further develop and evaluate the feasibility of a new method to estimate IDF curves in ungauged stations under Mediterranean climates of central Chile. A technique used to address this problem is the use of a storm index (SI), also known as the ‘K’ method, which allows the construction of IDF curves from stations with discontinuous data, by extrapolating data from stations with continuous records, as long as daily rainfall intensities for both stations differ by less than 2 mm h?1. To test the applicability of this method, SI values were calculated for 40 meteorological stations located throughout Central Chile (latitudes 30°S to 40°S). The extrapolated IDF curves were then compared with observed data, and the goodness of fit was determined. The results indicate that the storm index method can adequately estimate hourly IDF curve values for stations lacking of continuous rainfall data. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

19.
Abstract

Soil erosion vulnerability and extreme rainfall characteristics over the Mediterranean semi-arid region of Tunisia are crucial input for estimation of siltation rate in artificial reservoirs. A comprehensive high-resolution database on erosive rainfall, together with siltation records for 28 small reservoirs, were analysed for this region, the Tunisian Dorsal (the easternmost part of the Atlas Mountains). The general life-span of these reservoirs is only about 14 years. Depending on the soil degradation in the different catchments, the corresponding reservoirs display a wide range of soil erosion rates. The average soil loss was 14.5 t ha?1 year?1 but some catchments display values of up to 36.4 t ha?1 year?1. The maximum 15-min duration rainfall intensity was used to determine the spatial distribution of rainfall erosivity. The northwestern parts of the Tunisian Dorsal display the most extreme rainfall erosivity. Spatial erosion patterns are to some extent similar; however, they vary greatly according to their location in the “soil degradation cycle”. This cycle determines the soil particle delivery potential of the catchment. In general, the northwestern parts of the Dorsal display modest soil erosion patterns due to the already severely degraded soil structure. Here, the soil surface is often the original bedrock. However, the greatest soil erosion occurs in the mid-eastern parts of the Dorsal, which represents the “degradation front”. The latter corresponds to the area with highest erosion, which is continuously progressing westward in the Dorsal. The large variation between the erosive rainfall events and the annual soil loss rates was explained by two important factors. The first relates to the soil degradation cycle. The second factor corresponds to the degradation front with the highest soil loss rates. At present this front is located at 300 m altitude and appears to be moving along an 80-km westward path starting from the east coast. A better understanding of the above can be used to better manage soils and soil covers in the Tunisian Dorsal area and, eventually, to decrease the soil erosion and reservoir siltation risk.

Citation Jebari, S., Berndtsson, R., Bahri, A. & Boufaroua, M. (2010) Spatial soil loss risk and reservoir siltation in semi-arid Tunisia. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(1), 121–137.  相似文献   

20.
Maximum rainfall intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves are commonly applied to determine the design rainfall in water resource projects. Normally, the IDF relationship is derived from recording rain gauges. As the network of non-recording rain gauges (daily rainfall) in Taiwan has a higher density than recording rain gauges, attempts were made in this study to extend the IDF relationship to non-recording rain gauges. Eighteen recording rain gauges and 99 non-recording rain gauges over the Chi-Nan area in Southern Taiwan provide the data sets. The regional IDF formulae were generated for ungauged areas to estimate rainfall intensity for various return periods and rainfall durations larger than or equal to one hour. For rainfall durations less than one hour, a set of adjustment formulae were applied to modify the regional IDF formulae. The method proposed in this study had reasonable application to non-recording rain gauges, which was concluded from the verification of four additional recording rain gauges. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

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