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1.
Climate and land use changes greatly modify hydrologic regimes. In this paper, we modelled the impacts of biofuel cultivation in the US Great Plains on a 1061‐km2 watershed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrologic model. The model was calibrated to monthly discharges spanning 2002–2010 and for the winter, spring, and summer seasons. SWAT was then run for a climate‐change‐only scenario using downscaled precipitation and a projected temperature for 16 general circulation model (GCM) runs associated with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emission Scenarios A2 scenario spanning 2040–2050. SWAT was also run on a climate change plus land use change scenario in which Alamo switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) replaced native range grasses, winter wheat, and rye (89% of the basin). For the climate‐change‐only scenario, the GCMs agreed on a monthly temperature increase of 1–2 °C by the 2042–2050 period, but they disagreed on the direction of change in precipitation. For this scenario, decreases in surface runoff during all three seasons and increases in spring and summer evapotranspiration (eT) were driven predominantly by precipitation. Increased summer temperatures also significantly contributed to changes in eT. With the addition of switchgrass, changes in surface runoff are amplified during the winter and summer, and changes in eT are amplified during all three seasons. Depending on the GCM utilized, either climate change or land use change (switchgrass cultivation) was the dominant driver of change in surface runoff while switchgrass cultivation was the major driver of changes in eT. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
2.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(4):727-738
Abstract Projected warming in equatorial Africa, accompanied by greater evaporation and more frequent heavy precipitation events, may have substantial but uncertain impacts on terrestrial hydrology. Quantitative analyses of climate change impacts on catchment hydrology require high-resolution (<50 km) climate data provided by regional climate models (RCMs). We apply validated precipitation and temperature data from the RCM PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies) to a semi-distributed soil moisture balance model (SMBM) in order to quantify the impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge and runoff in a medium-sized catchment (2098 km2) in the humid tropics of southwestern Uganda. The SMBM explicitly accounts for changes in soil moisture, and partitions effective precipitation into groundwater recharge and runoff. Under the A2 emissions scenario (2070–2100), climate projections from PRECIS feature not only rises in catchment precipitation and modelled potential evapotranspiration by 14% and 53%, respectively, but also increases in rainfall intensity. We show that the common application of the historical rainfall distribution using delta factors to the SMBM grossly underestimates groundwater recharge (i.e. 55% decrease relative to the baseline period of 1961–1990). By transforming the rainfall distribution to account for changes in rainfall intensity, we project increases in recharge and runoff of 53% and 137%, respectively, relative to the baseline period. 相似文献
3.
Abstract A study of the effect of changes in climate on aquifer storage and river recharge using a simple model of an idealized aquifer/river system shows the combined influence of aquifer properties and climate change scenario on the system response. The study shows that changes in the seasonal distribution of recharge may have a critical effect on low flows in rivers supported by baseflow. However, rivers supported by slowly responding aquifers may show a considerable delay in response to climate change allowing an opportunity for water resources planning over an extended period. 相似文献
4.
Edgar Rodríguez-Huerta Martí Rosas-Casals Laura Margarita Hernández-Terrones 《水文科学杂志》2020,65(3):470-486
ABSTRACTThe aim of this paper is to estimate the effect that climate change will have on groundwater recharge at the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico. The groundwater recharge is calculated from a monthly water balance model considering eight methods of potential and actual evapotranspiration. Historical data from 1961–2000 and climate model outputs from five downscaled general circulation models in the near horizon (2015–2039), with representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 are used. The results estimate a recharge of 118 ± 33 mm·year–1 (around 10% of precipitation) in the historical period. Considering the uncertainty from GCMs under different RCP and evapotranspiration scenarios, our monthly water balance model estimates a groundwater recharge of 92 ± 40 mm·year–1 (RCP4.5) and 94 ± 38 mm·year–1 (RCP8.5) which represent a reduction of 23% and 20%, respectively, a result that threatens the socio-ecological balance of the region. 相似文献
5.
AbstractA semi-distributed hydrological model and reservoir optimization algorithm are used to evaluate the potential impacts of climate change on existing and proposed reservoirs in the Sonora River Basin, Mexico. Inter-annual climatic variability, a bimodal precipitation regime and climate change uncertainties present challenges to water resource management in the region. Hydrological assessments are conducted for three meteorological products during a historical period and a future climate change scenario. Historical (1990–2000) and future (2031–2040) projections were derived from a mesoscale model forced with boundary conditions from a general circulation model under a high emissions scenario. The results reveal significantly higher precipitation, reservoir inflows, elevations and releases in the future relative to historical simulations. Furthermore, hydrological seasonality might be altered with a shift toward earlier water supply during the North American monsoon. The proposed infrastructure would have a limited ability to ameliorate future conditions, with more benefits in a tributary with lower flood hazard. These projections of the impacts of climate change and its interaction with infrastructure should be of interest to water resources managers in arid and semi-arid regions.
Editor D. Koutsoyiannis 相似文献
6.
Isaac Larbi Emmanuel Obuobie Anne Verhoef Stefan Julich Karl-Henz Feger Aymar Yaovi Bossa 《水文科学杂志》2020,65(13):2196-2209
ABSTRACT The need for a detailed investigation of the Vea catchment water balance components cannot be overemphasized due to its accelerated land-cover dynamics and the associated impacts on the hydrological processes. This study assessed the possible consequences of land-use change scenarios (i.e. business as usual, BAU, and afforestation for the year 2025) compared to the 2016 baseline on the Vea catchment’s water balance components using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The data used include daily climate and discharge, soil and land use/land cover maps. The results indicate that the mean annual water yield may increase by 9.1% under the BAU scenario but decrease by 2.7% under the afforestation scenario; actual evapotranspiration would decrease under BAU but increase under afforestation; and groundwater recharge may increase under both scenarios but would be more pronounced under the afforestation scenario. These outcomes highlight the significance of land-cover dynamics in water resource management and planning at the catchment. 相似文献
7.
AbstractMany of the Japanese regions subject to seasonal snow cover are characterized by low elevations and relatively high winter temperatures. A small change in winter temperatures could render many of these areas susceptible to snow cover change and consequently affect water resources management. This paper describes a climatological approach combined with an AGCM output to identify the regions and main river basins most sensitive to snow cover change in the case of climate change in Japan. It was found that a 1°C rise in temperature during the winter season could increase the snow-free area of Japan by 6%. The snow cover of Tohoku region and Mogami and Agano river basins was found to be the most sensitive to climate change. The AGCM output for a future scenario presents a reduction in total snowfall and an earlier peak in snowmelt for all regions.Editor Z.W. KundzewiczCitation Chaffe, P.L.B, Takara, K, Yamashiki, Y, Apip, Luo, P., Silva, R.V., and Nakakita, E., 2013. Mapping of Japanese areas susceptible to snow cover change. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (8), 1718–1728. 相似文献
8.
Assessment of future groundwater recharge in semi‐arid regions under climate change scenarios (Serral‐Salinas aquifer,SE Spain). Could increased rainfall variability increase the recharge rate? 
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下载免费PDF全文 David Pulido‐Velazquez José Luis García‐Aróstegui Jose‐Luis Molina Manuel Pulido‐Velazquez 《水文研究》2015,29(6):828-844
The projected impact of climate change on groundwater recharge is a challenge in hydrogeological research because substantial doubts still remain, particularly in arid and semi‐arid zones. We present a methodology to generate future groundwater recharge scenarios using available information about regional climate change projections developed in European Projects. It involves an analysis of regional climate model (RCM) simulations and a proposal for ensemble models to assess the impacts of climate change. Future rainfall and temperature series are generated by modifying the mean and standard deviation of the historical series in accordance with estimates of their change provoked by climate change. Future recharge series will be obtained by simulating these new series within a continuous balance model of the aquifer. The proposed method is applied to the Serral‐Salinas aquifer, located in a semi‐arid zone of south‐east Spain. The results show important differences depending on the RCM used. Differences are also observed between the series generated by imposing only the changes in means or also in standard deviations. An increase in rainfall variability, as expected under future scenarios, could increase recharge rates for a given mean rainfall because the number of extreme events increases. For some RCMs, the simulations predict total recharge increases over the historical values, even though climate change would produce a reduction in the mean rainfall and an increased mean temperature. A method based on a multi‐objective analysis is proposed to provide ensemble predictions that give more value to the information obtained from the best calibrated models. The ensemble of predictions estimates a reduction in mean annual recharge of 14% for scenario A2 and 58% for scenario A1B. Lower values of future recharge are obtained if only the change in the mean is imposed. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
9.
Abstract The effects of changes in climate on aquifer storage and groundwater flow to rivers have been investigated using an idealized representation of the aquifer/river system. The generalized aquifer/river model can incorporate spatial variability in aquifer transmissivity and is applied with parameters characteristic of Chalk and Triassic sandstone aquifers in the United Kingdom, and is also applicable to other aquifers elsewhere. The model is run using historical time series of recharge, estimated from observed rainfall and potential evaporation data, and with climate inputs perturbed according to a number of climate change scenarios. Simulations of baseflow suggest large proportional reductions at low flows from Chalk under high evaporation change scenarios. Simulated baseflow from the slower responding Triassic sandstone aquifer shows more uniform and less severe reductions. The change in hydrological regime is less extreme for the low evaporation change scenario, but remains significant for the Chalk aquifer. 相似文献
10.
Groundwater, an essential resource, is likely to change with global warming because of changes in the CO2 levels, temperature and precipitation. Here, we combine water isotope geochemistry with climate modelling to examine future groundwater recharge in southwest Ohio, USA. We first establish the stable isotope profiles of oxygen and deuterium in precipitation and groundwater. We then use an isotope mass balance model to determine seasonal groundwater recharge from precipitation. Climate model output is used to project future changes in precipitation and its seasonal distribution under medium and high climate change scenarios. Finally, these results are combined to examine future changes in groundwater recharge. We find that 76% of the groundwater recharge occurs in the cool season. Climate models project precipitation increase in the cool season and decrease in the warm season. The total groundwater recharge is expected to increase by 3.2% (8.8%) under the medium (high) climate change scenarios. 相似文献
11.
An analysis of the climate change signal for seasonal temperature and precipitation over the Northern Adriatic region is presented here. We collected 43 regional climate simulations covering the target area, including experiments produced in the context of the PRUDENCE and ENSEMBLES projects, and additional experiments produced by the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute. The ability of the models to simulate the present climate in terms of mean and interannual variability is discussed and the insufficient reproduction of some features, such as the intensity of summer precipitation, are shown. The contribution to the variance associated with the intermodel spread is computed. The changes of mean and interannual variability are analyzed for the period 2071–2100 in the PRUDENCE runs (A2 scenario) and the periods 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 (A1B scenario) for the other runs. Ensemble results show a major warming at the end of the 21st century. Warming will be larger in the A2 scenario (about 5.5 K in summer and 4 K in winter) than in the A1B. Precipitation is projected to increase in winter and decrease in summer by 20% (+0.5 mm/day and −1 mm/day over the Alps, respectively). The climate change signal for scenario A1B in the period 2021–2050 is significant for temperature, but not yet for precipitation. In summer, interannual variability is projected to increase for temperature and for precipitation. Winter interannual variability change is different among scenarios. A reduction of precipitation is found for A2, while for A1B a reduction of temperature interannual variability is observed. 相似文献
12.
The predicted increase in mean global temperature due to climate change is expected to affect water availability and, in turn, cause both environmental and societal impacts. To understand the potential impact of climate change on future sustainable water resources, this paper outlines a methodology to quantify the effects of climate change on potential groundwater recharge (or hydrological excess water) for three locations in the north and south of Great Britain. Using results from a stochastic weather generator, actual evapotranspiration and potential groundwater recharge time‐series for the historic baseline 1961–1990 and for a future ‘high’ greenhouse gas emissions scenario for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s time periods were simulated for Coltishall in East Anglia, Gatwick in southeast England and Paisley in west Scotland. Under the ‘high’ gas emissions scenario, results showed a decrease of 20% in potential groundwater recharge for Coltishall, 40% for Gatwick and 7% for Paisley by the end of this century. The persistence of dry periods is shown to increase for the three sites during the 2050s and 2080s. Gatwick presents the driest conditions, Coltishall the largest variability of wet and dry periods and Paisley little variability. For Paisley, the main effect of climate change is evident during the dry season (April–September), when the potential amount of hydrological excess water decreases by 88% during the 2080s. Overall, it is concluded that future climate may present a decrease in potential groundwater recharge that will increase stress on local and regional groundwater resources that are already under ecosystem and water supply pressures. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
13.
Potential hydrological impacts of climate change on long‐term water balances were analysed for Harp Lake and its catchment. Harp Lake is located in the boreal ecozone of Ontario, Canada. Two climate change scenarios were used. One was based on extrapolation of long‐term trends of monthly temperature and precipitation from a 129‐year data record, and another was based on a Canadian general circulation model (GCM) predictions. A monthly water balance model was calibrated using 26 years of hydrological and meteorological data, and the model was used to calculate hydrological impact under two climate change scenarios. The first scenario with a warmer and wetter climate predicted a smaller magnitude of change than the second scenario. The first scenario showed an increase in evaporation each month, an increase in catchment runoff in summer, fall and winter, but a decrease in spring, resulting in a slight increase in lake level. Annual runoff and lake level would increase because the precipitation change overrides evaporation change. The second scenario with a warmer, drier climate predicted a greater change, and indicated that evaporation would increase each month, runoff would increase in many months, but would decrease in spring, causing the lake level to decrease slightly. Annual runoff and lake level would decrease because evaporation change overrides precipitation change. In both scenarios, the water balance changes in winter and spring are pronounced. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
14.
This study models climate change impacts on the natural flow regime of braided rivers and inflows to hydropower lakes in a New Zealand mountain basin. Flow metrics include the magnitude, frequency, timing and duration of unaltered flows. The TopNet hydrological model was used to simulate impacts in the Upper Waitaki Basin of the South Island for the 1990s, 2040s and 2090s. An average emissions scenario and results from 12 global circulation models were used as input. Indicators of hydrological alteration and Kruskal-Wallis tests were used to evaluate flow differences. Modelled total inflows increase over time for all lakes, with most increases in winter/early spring and small decreases in summer/autumn. High flows generally increase, while low flows decrease. Although these changes may benefit hydropower and floodplain ecology, they may increase flood risk in winter and spring and drought risk in summer and autumn, causing additional challenges managing hydropower operations.
EDITOR M.C. AcremanASSOCIATE EDITOR S. Kanae 相似文献
15.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(1)
Abstract Abstract The exploitation of an alluvial aquifer (2 × 106 m3) has been developed since 1998 in the Valley of Forquilha (Quixeramobim, State of Ceará). For this purpose, 165 wells were drilled along the 23 km of the valley that supplies 500 families and their farms. Monthly monitoring of piezometric and electrical conductivity (2000–2003) show seasonal variations in the water volume (35%) and in the mean value of the conductivity (800–1200 µS cm-1). A conceptual hydrogeological model was developed. Analysis of the data and simulations highlight that the recharge of the aquifer is mainly due to infiltration from the river in the rainy season, which is of the order of 1% of the rain over the catchment area (195 km2). The abstractions increase the recharge between 30 and 60%. The model makes it possible to propose scenarios of sustainable exploitation of the water resource in the catchment. For the period between 1970 and 1988, other simulations show that it would have been possible to maintain irrigated cultures on 75 ha for 80% of the time. During the remaining 20%, the water level is too low, and farmers would have to reduce the irrigated area. 相似文献
16.
ABSTRACTThe impacts of future climate change on the agricultural water supply capacities of irrigation facilities in the Geum River basin (9645.5 km2) of South Korea were investigated using an integrated modeling framework that included a water balance network model (MODSIM) and a watershed-scale hydrologic model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool, SWAT). The discharges and baseflows from upland drainage areas were estimated using SWAT, and the predicted flow was used to feed agricultural reservoirs and multipurpose dams in subwatersheds. Using a split sampling method, we calibrated the daily streamflows and dam inflows at three locations using data from 6 years, including 3 years of calibration data (2005–2007) followed by 3 years of validation data (2008–2010). In the MODSIM model, the entire basin was divided into 14 subwatersheds in which various agricultural irrigation facilities such as agricultural reservoirs, pumping stations, diversions, culverts and groundwater wells were defined as a network of hydraulic structures within each subwatershed. These hydraulic networks between subwatersheds were inter-connected to allow watershed-scale analysis and were further connected to municipal and industrial water supplies under various hydrologic conditions. Projected climate data from the HadGEM3-RA RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios for the period of 2006–2099 were imported to SWAT to calculate the water yield, and the output was transferred to MODSIM in the form of time-series boundary conditions. The maximum shortage rate of agricultural water was estimated as 38.2% for the 2040s and 2080s under the RCP 4.5 scenario but was lower under the RCP 8.5 scenario (21.3% in the 2040s and 22.1% in the 2080s). Under the RCP 4.5 scenario, the projected shortage rate was higher than that during the measured baseline period (1982–2011) of 25.6% and the RCP historical period (1982–2005) of 30.1%. The future elevated drought levels are primarily attributed to the increasingly concentrated rainfall distribution throughout the year under a monsoonal climate, as projected by the IPCC climate scenarios.
EDITOR Z.W. Kundzewicz; ASSOCIATE EDITOR not assigned 相似文献
17.
Hartmut M. Holländer Zijian Wang Kibreab A. Assefa Allan D. Woodbury 《Ground water》2016,54(2):243-254
Groundwater recharge estimation is a critical quantity for sustainable groundwater management. The feasibility and robustness of recharge estimation was evaluated using physical‐based modeling procedures, and data from a low‐cost weather station with remote sensor techniques in Southern Abbotsford, British Columbia, Canada. Recharge was determined using the Richards‐based vadose zone hydrological model, HYDRUS‐1D. The required meteorological data were recorded with a HOBOTM weather station for a short observation period (about 1 year) and an existing weather station (Abbotsford A) for long‐term study purpose (27 years). Undisturbed soil cores were taken at two locations in the vicinity of the HOBOTM weather station. The derived soil hydraulic parameters were used to characterize the soil in the numerical model. Model performance was evaluated using observed soil moisture and soil temperature data obtained from subsurface remote sensors. A rigorous sensitivity analysis was used to test the robustness of the model. Recharge during the short observation period was estimated at 863 and 816 mm. The mean annual recharge was estimated at 848 and 859 mm/year based on a time series of 27 years. The relative ratio of annual recharge‐precipitation varied from 43% to 69%. From a monthly recharge perspective, the majority (80%) of recharge due to precipitation occurred during the hydrologic winter period. The comparison of the recharge estimates with other studies indicates a good agreement. Furthermore, this method is able to predict transient recharge estimates, and can provide a reasonable tool for estimates on nutrient leaching that is often controlled by strong precipitation events and rapid infiltration of water and nitrate into the soil. 相似文献
18.
Abstract Kanchanapally watershed covering an area of about 11 km2 in Nalgonda district, Andhra Pradesh, India is located in granitic terrain. Groundwater recharge has been estimated from a water balance model using hydrometeorological data from 1978–1994. The monthly recharge estimates obtained from the water balance model formed input for the groundwater flow model during transient model testing. The groundwater flow model has been prepared to simulate steady state groundwater conditions of 1977 using the nested squares finite difference method. The transient groundwater flow model has been tested during 1977–1994 using the estimated recharge values. The present study helped verify the usefulness of monthly recharge estimates for accounting dynamic variations in recharge as reflected in water level fluctuations in hydrographs. 相似文献
19.
C. M. Schmidt A. T. Fisher A. Racz C. G. Wheat M. Los Huertos B. Lockwood 《水文研究》2012,26(15):2235-2247
Artificial recharge of groundwater is an increasingly important method for augmenting groundwater supply and can have a positive or negative influence on the quality of water resources. We instrumented a managed aquifer recharge (MAR) pond in central coastal California to assess how patterns of infiltration and recharge affect the load of nitrate delivered to the underlying aquifer. The concentration of nitrate in infiltrating water consistently decreased during passage through the first metre of subsurface soils. Enrichment of 18O and 15 N in the residual nitrate in infiltrating water proceeded in a ratio of 1:2, indicating that denitrification plays a significant role in the quantitative reduction of nutrients exported during infiltration through shallow soils. The extent and rate of nitrate removal was spatially and temporally variable across the bottom of the recharge pond, with 30% to 60% of the nitrate load being removed over the first 6 weeks of managed aquifer recharge operation. During the period of highest N loading to the system, when the average infiltration rate was > 1 m/day, the recharge pond achieved a load reduction efficiency of 7 kg NO3?‐N/day/ha, which compares favourably to nitrate load reductions achieved by treatment wetlands. Groundwater mounding and water composition below the recharge pond suggest that recharge and subsequent lateral transport occur heterogeneously in the underlying aquifer. Nitrate concentrations in the aquifer following infiltration were lowered primarily by dilution, with little evidence for additional denitrification occurring in the aquifer in comparison to high rates documented during shallow infiltration. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
20.
Brazilian semi‐arid regions are characterized by water scarcity, vulnerability to desertification, and climate variability. The investigation of hydrological processes in this region is of major interest not only for water planning strategies but also to address the possible impact of future climate and land‐use changes on water resources. A hydrological distributed catchment‐scale model (DiCaSM) has been applied to simulate hydrological processes in a small representative catchment of the Brazilian northeast semi‐arid region, and also to investigate the impact of climate and land‐use changes, as well as changes associated with biofuel/energy crops production. The catchment is part of the Brazilian network for semi‐arid hydrology, established by the Brazilian Federal Government. Estimating and modelling streamflow (STF) and recharge in semi‐arid areas is a challenging task, mainly because of limitation in in situ measurements, and also due to the local nature of some processes. Direct recharge measurements are very difficult in semi‐arid catchments and contain a high level of uncertainty. The latter is usually addressed by short‐ and long‐time‐scale calibration and validation at catchment scale, as well as by examining the model sensitivity to the physical parameters responsible for the recharge. The DiCaSM model was run from 2000 to 2008, and streamflow was successfully simulated, with a Nash–Sutcliffe (NS) efficiency coefficient of 0·73, and R2 of 0·79. On the basis of a range of climate change scenarios for the region, the DiCaSM model forecasted a reduction by 35%, 68%, and 77%, in groundwater recharge (GWR), and by 34%, 65%, and 72%, in streamflow, for the time spans 2010–2039, 2040–2069, and 2070–2099, respectively, could take place for a dry future climate scenario. These reductions would produce severe impact on water availability in the region. Introducing castor beans to the catchment would increase the GWR and streamflow, mainly if the caatinga areas would be converted into castor beans production. Changing an area of 1000 ha from caatinga to castor beans would increase the GWR by 46% and streamflow by 3%. If the same area of pasture is converted into castor beans, there would be an increase in GWR and streamflow by 24% and 5%, respectively. Such results are expected to contribute towards environmental policies for north‐east Brazil (NEB), and to biofuel production perspectives in the region. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献