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1.
As part of the effort to assess the seismic hazards of Singapore and the Malay Peninsula, representative ground motion prediction models have to be established. Seven existing attenuation relationships developed for shallow crustal earthquakes in stable continent and active tectonic regions are examined, and they are found to consistently over‐predict the ground motions of Sumatran‐fault earthquakes recently recorded in Singapore. This may be attributed to the differences in the regional crustal structures and distance ranges considered. Since the number of recorded ground motions in the region is very limited, a new set of attenuation relationships is derived based on synthetic seismograms. The uncertainties in rupture parameters, such as stress drop, focal depth, dip and rake angles, are defined according to the regional geological and tectonic settings as well as the ruptures of previous earthquakes. Ground motions are simulated for earthquakes with Mw ranging from 4.0 to 8.0, within a distance range from 174 to 1379km. Besides magnitude and distance, source‐to‐station azimuth is found to influence the amplitudes of the ground motions simulated. Thus, the azimuth is taken as an independent variable in the derived ground motion attenuation relationships. The Sumatran‐fault segments that have the potential to generate a specified level of response spectral accelerations in Singapore and Kuala Lumpur are identified based on the newly derived ground motion models. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

2.
A representative attenuation relationship is one of the key components required in seismic hazard assessment of a region of interest. Attenuation relationships for peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity and response spectral accelerations for Sumatran megathrust earthquakes, covering Mw up to 9.0, are derived based on synthetic seismograms obtained from a finite‐fault kinematic model. The relationships derived are for very hard rock site condition and for a long‐distance range between 200 and 1500 km. They are then validated with recorded data from giant earthquakes on the Sumatran megathrust occurring since year 2000. A close examination of the recorded data also shows that spectral shapes predicted by most of the existing attenuation relationships and that specified in the IBC code are not particularly suitable for sites where potential seismic hazard is dominated by large‐magnitude, distant, earthquakes. Ground motions at a remote site are typically signified by the dominance of long‐period components with periods longer than 1 s, whereas the predominant periods from most of the existing attenuation relationships and the IBC code are shorter than 0.6 s. The shifting of response spectrum towards longer period range for distant earthquakes should be carefully taken into account in the formulation of future seismic codes for Southeast Asia, where many metropolises are located far from active seismic sources. The attenuation relationship derived in the present study can properly reproduce the spectral shape from distant subduction earthquakes, and could hopefully give insights into the formulation of future seismic codes. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

3.
-- We investigate the impact of different rupture and attenuation models for the Cascadia subduction zone by simulating seismic hazard models for the Pacific Northwest of the U.S. at 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years. We calculate the sensitivity of hazard (probabilistic ground motions) to the source parameters and the attenuation relations for both intraslab and interface earthquakes and present these in the framework of the standard USGS hazard model that includes crustal earthquakes. Our results indicate that allowing the deep intraslab earthquakes to occur anywhere along the subduction zone increases the peak ground acceleration hazard near Portland, Oregon by about 20%. Alternative attenuation relations for deep earthquakes can result in ground motions that differ by a factor of two. The hazard uncertainty for the plate interface and intraslab earthquakes is analyzed through a Monte-Carlo logic tree approach and indicates a seismic hazard exceeding 1 g (0.2 s spectral acceleration) consistent with the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Maps in western Washington, Oregon, and California and an overall coefficient of variation that ranges from 0.1 to 0.4. Sensitivity studies indicate that the paleoseismic chronology and the magnitude of great plate interface earthquakes contribute significantly to the hazard uncertainty estimates for this region. Paleoseismic data indicate that the mean earthquake recurrence interval for great earthquakes is about 500 years and that it has been 300 years since the last great earthquake. We calculate the probability of such a great earthquake along the Cascadia plate interface to be about 14% when considering a time-dependent model and about 10% when considering a time-independent Poisson model during the next 50-year interval.  相似文献   

4.
From an analysis of a limited number of strong-motion data recorded in northeast Indian region, the in-slab earthquakes along the Indo-Burmese subduction zone are found to be characterized by much larger ground motion amplitudes than that for the earthquakes along other subduction zones around the world. Specific type of source, propagation path and site geologic condition may perhaps simultaneously be responsible for such anomalous behaviour. The empirical attenuation relations developed by Atkinson and Boore [3] using a global database for subduction zone earthquakes have been therefore suitably modified to be more appropriate for the northeast India. The modified relationships are developed by combining the data for both horizontal and vertical components of motion. The response spectra of the accelerograms recorded in northeast India from earthquakes with widely varying magnitude and distance are, in general, found to match very well with the predictions from the modified attenuation model. The proposed model can thus be used to obtain more realistic estimate of the contribution of in-slab subduction zone earthquakes to seismic hazard in the northeast Indian region.  相似文献   

5.
We developed a seismic hazard model for Taiwan that integrates all available tectonic, seismicity, and seismic hazard information in the region to provide risk managers and engineers with a model they can use to estimate earthquake losses and manage seismic risk in Taiwan. The seismic hazard model is composed of two major components: a seismotectonic model and a ground-shaking model. The seismotectonic model incorporates earthquakes that are expected to occur on the Ryukyu and Manila subduction zones, on the intermediate-depth Wadati-Benioff seismicity zones, on the active crustal faults, and within seismotectonic provinces. The active crustal faults include the Chelungpu fault zone, the source of the damaging MW 7.6 Chi-Chi earthquake, and the Huangchi-Hsiaoyukeng fault zone that forms the western boundary of the Taipei Basin. The ground-shaking model uses both US, worldwide, and Taiwanese attenuation relations to provide robust estimates of peak ground acceleration and response spectral acceleration on a reference site condition for shallow crustal and subduction zone earthquakes. The ground shaking for other site conditions is obtained by applying a nonlinear soil-amplification factor defined in terms of the average shear-wave velocity in the top 30 m of the soil profile, consistent with the methodology used in the current US and proposed Taiwan building codes.  相似文献   

6.
This paper presents a seismic hazard map for the southern part of Ghana prepared using the probabilistic approach, and seismic hazard assessment results for six cities. The seismic hazard map was prepared for 10% probability of exceedance for peak ground acceleration in 50 years. The input parameters used for the computations of hazard were obtained using data from a catalogue that was compiled and homogenised to moment magnitude (Mw). The catalogue covered a period of over a century (1615–2009). The hazard assessment is based on the Poisson model for earthquake occurrence, and hence, dependent events were identified and removed from the catalogue. The following attenuation relations were adopted and used in this study—Allen (for south and eastern Australia), Silva et al. (for Central and eastern North America), Campbell and Bozorgnia (for worldwide active-shallow-crust regions) and Chiou and Youngs (for worldwide active-shallow-crust regions). Logic-tree formalism was used to account for possible uncertainties associated with the attenuation relationships. OpenQuake software package was used for the hazard calculation. The highest level of seismic hazard is found in the Accra and Tema seismic zones, with estimated peak ground acceleration close to 0.2 g. The level of the seismic hazard in the southern part of Ghana diminishes with distance away from the Accra/Tema region to a value of 0.05 g at a distance of about 140 km.  相似文献   

7.
The paper presents recent achievements in evaluations of site-dependent seismic hazard in Romania and the capital city of Bucharest caused by the Vrancea focal zone (SE-Carpathians). The zone is characterized by a high rate of occurrence of large earthquakes in a narrow focal volume at depths 60–170 km. The database that was used for the hazard evaluation includes parameters of seismicity, ground-motion source scaling and attenuation models (Fourier amplitude spectra), and site-dependent spectral amplification functions. Ground-motion characteristics were evaluated on the basis of several hundred records from more than 120 small magnitude (M 3.5–5) earthquakes occurred in 1996–2001 and a few tens of acceleration records obtained during four large (M 7.4, 7.2, 6.9 and 6.3) earthquakes. The data provide a basis for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in terms of peak ground acceleration, peak spectral acceleration and MSK intensity using Fourier amplitude spectra for various exceedance probabilities or average return periods. It has been shown that the influence of geological factors plays very important role in distribution of earthquake ground-motion parameters along the territory of Romania.  相似文献   

8.
Located on the Alpine-Himalayan earthquake belt, Iran is one of the seismically active regions of the world. Northern Iran, south of Caspian Basin, a hazardous subduction zone, is a densely populated and developing area of the country. Historical and instrumental documented seismicity indicates the occurrence of severe earthquakes leading to many deaths and large losses in the region. With growth of seismological and tectonic data, updated seismic hazard assessment is a worthwhile issue in emergency management programs and long-term developing plans in urban and rural areas of this region. In the present study, being armed with up-to-date information required for seismic hazard assessment including geological data and active tectonic setting for thorough investigation of the active and potential seismogenic sources, and historical and instrumental events for compiling the earthquake catalogue, probabilistic seismic hazard assessment is carried out for the region using three recent ground motion prediction equations. The logic tree method is utilized to capture epistemic uncertainty of the seismic hazard assessment in delineation of the seismic sources and selection of attenuation relations. The results are compared to a recent practice in code-prescribed seismic hazard of the region and are discussed in detail to explore their variation in each branch of logic tree approach. Also, seismic hazard maps of peak ground acceleration in rock site for 475- and 2,475-year return periods are provided for the region.  相似文献   

9.
国家重点研发计划项目《海域地震区划关键技术研究》已实施3年,进入项目结题阶段,已形成海域地震区划方法与技术体系,研究成果为即将开展的中国海域地震区划图编制工作提供技术支撑.项目组分析和探讨了海域地震区划研究基础与存在的问题,结合所关注的关键科学和技术问题,介绍和分析了主要研究成果和进展,包括海域断裂活动性探测和地震构造...  相似文献   

10.
Large magnitude earthquakes generated at source–site distances exceeding 100km are typified by low‐frequency (long‐period) seismic waves. Such induced ground shaking can be disproportionately destructive due to its high displacement, and possibly high velocity, shaking characteristics. Distant earthquakes represent a potentially significant safety hazard in certain low and moderate seismic regions where seismic activity is governed by major distant sources as opposed to nearby (regional) background sources. Examples are parts of the Indian sub‐continent, Eastern China and Indo‐China. The majority of ground motion attenuation relationships currently available for applications in active seismic regions may not be suitable for handling long‐distance attenuation, since the significance of distant earthquakes is mainly confined to certain low to moderate seismicity regions. Thus, the effects of distant earthquakes are often not accurately represented by conventional empirical models which were typically developed from curve‐fitting earthquake strong‐motion data from active seismic regions. Numerous well‐known existing attenuation relationships are evaluated in this paper, to highlight their limitations in long‐distance applications. In contrast, basic seismological parameters such as the Quality factor (Q‐factor) could provide a far more accurate representation for the distant attenuation behaviour of a region, but such information is seldom used by engineers in any direct manner. The aim of this paper is to develop a set of relationships that provide a convenient link between the seismological Q‐factor (amongst other factors) and response spectrum attenuation. The use of Q as an input parameter to the proposed model enables valuable local seismological information to be incorporated directly into response spectrum predictions. The application of this new modelling approach is demonstrated by examples based on the Chi‐Chi earthquake (Taiwan and South China), Gujarat earthquake (Northwest India), Nisqually earthquake (region surrounding Seattle) and Sumatran‐fault earthquake (recorded in Singapore). Field recordings have been obtained from these events for comparison with the proposed model. The accuracy of the stochastic simulations and the regression analysis have been confirmed by comparisons between the model calculations and the actual field observations. It is emphasized that obtaining representative estimates for Q for input into the model is equally important.Thus, this paper forms part of the long‐term objective of the authors to develop more effective communications across the engineering and seismological disciplines. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

11.
Faulting, shallow seismicity (0–30 km), and seismic hazard of the Costa Rican Central Valley were analyzed. Faults in the study area are oriented northwest or northeast. There is an active fault system in the south flank of the Central Volcanic Ridge and another in the north flank of the Talamanca Ridge. Faults of these systems have generated 15 destructive earthquakes in the area during the last 228 years all of them shallow and their locations show one cluster near the Poas Volcano and another southward the Central Valley. These earthquakes have damaged cities of the Central Valley, two of them destroyed Cartago city and almost 1000 people were killed. Regarding recent seismicity, there are three main seismic sources at the Central Volcanic Ridge: Irazu, Bajo de la Hondura and Poas and other three in the Talamanca Ridge: Puriscal, Los Santos and Pejibaye.A seismic hazard map for the Metropolitan Area of San José has been elaborated, based on local tectonic and seismic information. The area for the hazard computation covers an area of 20×15 km2 and includes the zone where the most population and socioeconomic activities are concentrated. The computation analysis are based on areas zones and faults, each one characterized by recurrence parameters, geometry, minimum and maximum magnitude and source depth. A recent local spectral attenuation model, which includes relations for shallow crustal sources and subduction zone earthquakes, has been applied in this study. The seismic hazard results are presented in terms of contour plots of estimated peak ground acceleration (PGA) for bedrock conditions for return period of 50, 100 and 500 years. In the Central Park of San Jose City the following PGA values were found: 0.29g for 50 years, 0.36g for 100 years, and 0.53g for 500 years.  相似文献   

12.
A collection of ground‐motion recordings (1070 acceleration records) of moderate (5.1⩽ML⩽6.5) earthquakes obtained during the execution of the Taiwan Strong Motion Instrumentation Program (TSMIP) since 1991 was used to study source scaling model and attenuation relations for a wide range of earthquake magnitudes and distances and to verify the models developed recently for the Taiwan region. The results of the analysis reveal that the acceleration spectra of the most significant part of the records, starting from S‐wave arrival, can be modelled accurately using the Brune's ω‐squared source model with magnitude‐dependent stress parameter Δσ, that should be determined using the recently proposed regional relationships between magnitude (ML) and seismic moment (M0) and between M0 and Δσ. The anelastic attenuation Q of spectral amplitudes with distance may be described as Q=225 ƒ1.1 both for deep (depth more than 35 km) and shallow earthquakes. The source scaling and attenuation models allow a satisfactory prediction of the peak ground acceleration for magnitudes 5.1⩽M⩽6.5 and distances up to about 200 km in the Taiwan region, and may be useful for seismic hazard assessment. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

13.
The earthquake risk on Romania is one of the highest in Europe, and seismic hazard for almost half of the territory of Romania is determined by the Vrancea seismic region, which is situated beneath the southern Carpathian Arc. The region is characterized by a high rate of occurrence of large earthquakes in a narrow focal volume at depth from 70 to 160 km. Besides the Vrancea area, several zones of shallow seismicity located within and outside the Romanian territory are considered as seismically dangerous. We present the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, which implemented the “logic tree” approach, and which considered both the intermediate-depth and the shallow seismicity. Various available models of seismicity and ground-motion attenuation were used as the alternative variants. Seismic hazard in terms of macroseismic intensities, peak ground acceleration, and response spectra was evaluated for various return periods. Sensitivity study was performed to analyze the impact of variation of input parameters on the hazard results. The uncertainty on hazard estimates may be reduced by better understanding of parameters of the Vrancea source zone and the zones of crustal seismicity. Reduction of uncertainty associated with the ground-motion models is also very important issue for Romania.  相似文献   

14.
本文研究了俯冲带潜在震源区离散化方法及考虑俯冲带高震级地震震源破裂面和震源深度的场点地震动计算方法,推导了俯冲带潜在震源区地震危险性计算公式,并使用中国海域及邻区地震危险性模型进行地震危险性试算.结果表明,本文建立的考虑俯冲带潜在震源区的地震危险性算法能够实现场点地震危险性计算时对俯冲带高震级地震震源破裂面和震源深度的...  相似文献   

15.
利用华北地区地震活动性资料,建立了地震危险性计算的一致性模型.在此模型的基础上,得出了北京、天津、唐山和济南等7个城市未来2500年内地震的时空强度分布,并计算了2500年回复周期的地震动峰值加速度(PGA).结果表明,唐山和太原的PGA最大(>0.2g),石家庄和北京次之(≈0.17g).对华北地区2500年地震记录的正演计算结果表明,太原和唐山地区的潜在地震危险最有可能来源于震级在6.0～7.0、震中距离在12～15km的地震活动;而北京、天津和石家庄地区则可能来源于震级在5.5～6.0、震中距离在10km左右的地震活动.采用IBC(International Building Code)方法计算后的结果显示,太原、唐山等地区的PGA与2001年我国地震动峰值加速度值基本一致,与此地区的较高地震活动性特征相符.利用随机震源模型,还给出了影响此7个城市的最大地震记录的加速度、速度及位移时程曲线,这对本区工程建筑的抗震性设计以及对救援设施的选址等有重要作用.  相似文献   

16.
Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Thailand   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2  
A set of probabilistic seismic hazard maps for Thailand has been derived using procedures developed for the latest US National Seismic Hazard Maps. In contrast to earlier hazard maps for this region, which are mostly computed using seismic source zone delineations, the presented maps are based on the combination of smoothed gridded seismicity, crustal-fault, and subduction source models. Thailand’s composite earthquake catalogue is revisited and expanded, covering a study area limited by 0°–30°N Latitude and 88°–110°E Longitude and the instrumental period from 1912 to 2007. The long-term slip rates and estimates of earthquake size from paleoseismological studies are incorporated through a crustal fault source model. Furthermore, the subduction source model is used to model the megathrust Sunda subduction zones, with variable characteristics along the strike of the faults. Epistemic uncertainty is taken into consideration by the logic tree framework incorporating basic quantities, such as different source modelling, maximum cut-off magnitudes and ground motion prediction equations. The ground motion hazard map is presented over a 10 km grid in terms of peak ground acceleration and spectral acceleration at 0.2, 1.0, and 2.0 undamped natural periods and a 5% critical damping ratio for 10 and 2% probabilities of exceedance in 50 years. The presented maps give expected ground motions that are based on more extensive data sources than applied in the development of previous maps. The main findings are that northern and western Thailand are subjected to the highest hazard. The largest contributors to short- and long-period ground motion hazard in the Bangkok region are from the nearby active faults and Sunda subduction zones, respectively.  相似文献   

17.
中强地震活动区地震动衰减关系的确定   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  
地震动衰减关系是影响地震安全性评价特别是地震区划结果的重要因素.我国现行的地震动衰减关系主要是依据6级以上地震的地面运动资料得到的,并没有考虑中强地震的衰减特性.为此,文中利用现有的烈度资料和其他可供参考的研究成果来建立我国中强地震活动区的地震动衰减关系.收集了我国华中、华南、东北等地区的51次地震的烈度等震线资料,运用单随机变量加权最小二乘回归法得到中强地震活动区烈度衰减关系.然后以美国西部地区为参考地区,运用缺乏地震动参数的地震动估计方法-地震对映射法得到中强地震活动区峰值加速度和有效峰值加速度衰减关系.最后,通过与我国强地震区和中强地震区已有的烈度衰减关系和地震动衰减关系的对比,验证了得出的我国中强地震活动区烈度衰减关系和地震动衰减关系的合理性.  相似文献   

18.
Earthquake hazard in Marmara Region, Turkey   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  
Earthquake hazard in the Marmara Region, Turkey has been investigated using time-independent probabilistic (simple Poissonian) and time-dependent probabilistic (renewal) models. The study culminated in hazard maps of the Marmara Region depicting peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral accelerations (SA)'s at 0.2 and 1 s periods corresponding to 10 and 2% probabilities of exceedance in 50 yrs. The historical seismicity, the tectonic models and the known slip rates along the faults constitute the main data used in the assignment. Based on recent findings it has been possible to provide a fault segmentation model for the Marmara Sea. For the main Marmara Fault this model essentially identifies fault segments for different structural, tectonic and geometrical features and historical earthquake occurrences. The damage distribution and pattern of the historical earthquakes have been carefully correlated with this fault segmentation model. The inter-event time period between characteristic earthquakes in these segments is consistently estimated by dividing the seismic slip estimated from the earthquake catalog by the GPS-derived slip rate of 22±3 mm/yr. The remaining segments in the eastern and southern Marmara region are also identified using recent geological, geophysical studies and historical earthquakes. The model assumes that seismic energy along the segments is released by characteristic earthquakes. For the probabilistic studies characteristic earthquake based recurrence relationships are used. Assuming normal distribution of inter-arrival times of characteristic earthquakes, the ‘mean recurrence time’, ‘covariance’ and the ‘time since last earthquake’ are developed for each segment. For the renewal model, the conditional probability for each fault segment is calculated from the mean recurrence interval of the characteristic earthquake, the elapsed time since the last major earthquake and the exposure period. The probabilities are conditional since they change as a function of the time elapsed since the last earthquake. For the background earthquake activity, a spatially smoothed seismicity is determined for each cell of a grid composed of cells of size 0.005°×0.005°. The ground motions are determined for soft rock (NEHRP B/C boundary) conditions. Western US-based attenuation relationships are utilized, since they show a good correlation with the attenuation characteristics of ground motion in the Marmara region. The possibility, that an event ruptures several fault segments (i.e. cascading), is also taken into account and investigated by two possible models of cascading. Differences between Poissonian and renewal models, and also the effect of cascading have been discussed with the help of PGA ratio maps.  相似文献   

19.
This paper presents the results of a review of earthquake data and a study of seismic hazard for Hong Kong. A region of about 660 km × 660 km around Hong Kong was selected for the study. In this study, the earthquake information available for the region was reviewed, and where possible, earthquake magnitudes were calculated. Since there is no strong motion record for any earthquake within the region, Joyner and Boore's attenuation law1 has been used for the analysis. The results show that the seismic hazard in Hong Kong is relatively small, but because of the uncertainty inherent in the assumed attenuation relationship, accurate prediction of peak ground acceleration is not possible.  相似文献   

20.
利用近几年在川滇地区破坏性地震及汶川地震强余震中获得的951条加速度记录, 通过选取合适的衰减关系形式和距离参数, 经统计获得了川滇地区水平向峰值加速度与35个周期点对应的加速度反应谱(阻尼比0.05)衰减关系. 统计结果显示, 震级越大, 地震动随距离的衰减越慢; 加速度反应谱的短周期部分随距离的衰减明显快于长周期部分; 中强地震在近场也会产生较大的峰值加速度和较高的短周期加速度反应谱. 由于统计资料的非完整性, 本文统计结果尚不宜直接应用于相关工程场地的设计地震动参数确定中. 但本文结果与目前由转换方法得到的我国西部地震动参数衰减规律的较大差异提示: 进一步深入研究我国地震动参数衰减规律应是紧迫而重要的任务.   相似文献   

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