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1.
This study analyses the performance of residential buildings in the town of Hveragerði in South Iceland during the 29 May 2008 Mw 6.3 Ölfus Earthquake. The earthquake occurred very close to the town, approximately 3–4 km from it. Ground shaking caused by the earthquake was recorded by a dense strong-motion array in the town. The array provided high-quality three-component ground acceleration data which is used to quantify a hazard scenario. In addition, surveys conducted in the town in the aftermath of the earthquake have provided information on macroseismic intensity at various locations in the town. Detailed information regarding the building stock in the town is collected, and their seismic vulnerability models are created by using building damage data obtained from the June 2000 South Iceland earthquakes. Damage to buildings are then simulated by using the scenario hazard and vulnerability models. Damage estimates were also obtained by conducting a survey. Simulated damage based on the scenario macroseismic intensity is found to be similar to damage estimated from survey data. The buildings performed very well during the earthquake—damage suffered was only 5 % of the insured value on the average. Correlation between actual damage and recorded ground-motion parameters is found to be statistically insignificant. No significant correlation of damage was observed, even with macroseismic intensity. Whereas significant correlation was observed between peak ground velocity and macroseismic intensity, neither of them appear to be good indicators of damage to buildings in the study area. This lack of correlation is partly due to good seismic capacity of buildings and partly due to the ordinal nature of macroseismic intensity scale. Consistent with experience from many past earthquakes, the survey results indicate that seismic risk in South Iceland is not so much due to collapse of buildings but rather due to damage to non-structural components and building contents. 相似文献
2.
Macroseismic and mechanical models for the vulnerability and damage assessment of current buildings 总被引：5，自引：3，他引：5
The European Commission funded the RISK-UE project in 1999 with the aim of providing an advanced approach to earthquake risk scenarios for European towns and regions. In the framework of Risk-UE project, two methods were proposed, originally derived and calibrated by the authors, for the vulnerability assessment of current buildings and for the evaluation of earthquake risk scenarios: a macroseismic model, to be used with macroseismic intensity hazard maps, and a mechanical based model, to be applied when the hazard is provided in terms of peak ground accelerations and spectral values. The vulnerability of the buildings is defined by vulnerability curves, within the macroseismic method, and in terms of capacity curves, within the mechanical method. In this paper, the development of both vulnerability and capacity curves is presented with reference to an assumed typological classification system; moreover, their cross-validation is presented. The parameters of the two methods and the steps for their operative implementation are provided in the paper. 相似文献
3.
传统农村房屋地震灾害平均损失率的统计分析 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
在多年来地震宏观震害资料整理、研究的基础上，对传统农村房屋的类型进行了划分，统计出农村房屋地震灾害的平均损失率与地震烈度之间的关系，以便在地震发生后能较快地初评估地震在农村地区所造成的经济损失，为快速判断震灾规模提供依据。 相似文献
4.
Models capable of estimating losses in future earthquakes are of fundamental importance for emergency planners, for the insurance and reinsurance industries, and for code drafters. Constructing a loss model for a city, region or country involves compiling databases of earthquake activity, ground conditions, attenuation equations, building stock and infrastructure exposure, and vulnerability characteristics of the exposed inventory, all of which have large associated uncertainties. Many of these uncertainties can be classified as epistemic, implying—at least in theory—that they can be reduced by acquiring additional data or improved understanding of the physical processes. The effort and cost involved in refining the definition of each component of a loss model can be very large, for which reason it is useful to identify the relative impact on the calculated losses due to variations in these components. A mechanically sound displacement‐based approach to loss estimation is applied to a test case of buildings along the northern side of the Sea of Marmara in Turkey. Systematic variations of the parameters defining the demand (ground motion) and the capacity (vulnerability) are used to identify the relative impacts on the resulting losses, from which it is found that the influence of the epistemic uncertainty in the capacity is larger than that of the demand for a single earthquake scenario. Thus, the importance of earthquake loss models which allow the capacity parameters to be customized to the study area under consideration is highlighted. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
5.
Development and assessment of damage‐to‐loss models for moment‐frame reinforced concrete buildings 
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下载免费PDF全文 Luís Martins Vítor Silva Mário Marques Helen Crowley Raimundo Delgado 《地震工程与结构动力学》2016,45(5):797-817
The assessment of earthquake loss often requires the definition of a relation between a measure of damage and a quantity of loss, usually achieved through the employment of a damage‐to‐loss model. These models are frequently characterized by a large variability, which inevitably increases the uncertainty in the vulnerability assessment and earthquake loss estimation. This study provides an insight on the development of damage‐to‐loss functions for moment‐frame reinforced concrete buildings through an analytical methodology. Tri‐dimensional finite element models of existing reinforced concrete buildings were subjected to a number of ground motion records compatible with the seismicity in the region of interest, through nonlinear dynamic analysis. These results were used to assess, for a number of damage states, the probability distribution of loss ratio, taking into consideration member damage and different repair techniques, as well as to derive sets of fragility functions. Then, a vulnerability model (in terms of the ratio of cost of repair to cost of replacement, conditional on the level of ground shaking intensity) was derived and compared with the vulnerability functions obtained through the combination of various damage‐to‐loss models with the set of fragility functions developed herein. In order to provide realistic estimates of economic losses due to seismic action, a comprehensive study on repair costs using current Portuguese market values was also carried out. The results of this study highlight important issues in the derivation of vulnerability functions, which are a fundamental component for an adequate seismic risk assessment. © 2015 The Authors. Earthquake Engineering & Structural Dynamics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. 相似文献
6.
Seismic hazard and risk scenarios for Barcelona,Spain, using the Risk-UE vulnerability index method 总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3
N. Lantada J. Irizarry A. H. Barbat X. Goula A. Roca T. Susagna L. G. Pujades 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2010,8(2):201-229
The vulnerability index method, in its version developed in the framework of the European project Risk-UE, has been adapted
and applied in this article, to evaluate the seismic risk for the city of Barcelona (Spain) through a GIS based tool. According
to this method, which defines five damage states, the action is expressed in terms of the macroseismic intensity and the seismic
quality of the buildings by means of a vulnerability index. The probabilities of damage states are obtained considering a
binomial or beta-equivalent probability distribution. The most relevant seismic risk evaluation results obtained, for current
buildings and monuments of Barcelona, are given in the article as scenarios of expected losses. 相似文献
7.
A comparative study of risk assessment methodologies based on macroseismic intensity and response spectrum approaches is presented. To facilitate the comparative study, a spreadsheet-based software tool ‘SeisVARA’ is developed for the estimation of earthquake risk, in which the seismic hazard can be specified either in terms of macroseismic intensity, or peak ground acceleration in combination with the spectral shape and soil amplification model of various earthquake building codes, or in terms of inelastic response spectra using the ‘next generation attenuation relationships’. A comparison of these different approaches is conducted for a typical city in northern India. In addition, the effect of different parameters, e.g., level of PGA, spectral shape, source-site parameters, and soil amplification models, is studied. It is observed that not only the different approaches result in widely varying damage and loss estimates, but also the variation of parameters within a given approach can result in considerable differences. 相似文献
8.
Damage scenarios for Basel (Switzerland) are presented, based on a microzonation study and on the distribution of buildings in the different districts of the city. Two reference scenarios are assumed, corresponding to an event with an intensity between VII and VIII and a return period of 475 years, and an event that simulates the 1356 Basel earthquake with an intensity of IX in the city. The overall building damage in the different districts ranges between 8 and 20% for the intensity VII–VIII scenario, while for the intensity IX scenario values range from 31 to 56%. The variation in building vulnerability class within the city and the variability of local ground conditions affect the overall damage significantly, so that their influence on earthquake damage can accumulate or cancel for single districts. 相似文献
9.
10.
Comparing Loss Estimation with Observed Damage: A Study of the 1999 Kocaeli Earthquake in Turkey 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
Robin Spence Julian Bommer Domenico del Re Juliet Bird Nuray Aydinoğlu Shigeko Tabuchi 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2003,1(1):83-113
Loss estimation from future earthquakes is of growing importance in planning earthquake protection strategies in high-risk
areas. Loss models based on the spectral displacement approach are now widely used because of generally acknowledged deficiencies
in earlier approaches using macroseismic intensity or peak ground-motion parameters. However, there has been to date rather
little earthquake damage data by which the new generation of models can be assessed and which can be used to calibrate the
parameters involved. The availability of several detailed damage surveys carried out following the 1999 Kocaeli earthquake
in Turkey, provides a rare opportunity for such an assessment. In this paper the losses which would be predicted from two
different approaches to loss assessment – one using predicted macroseismic intensity, the other using the spectral displacement
method – are compared with actual observed losses in the Kocaeli event at two different locations where surveys were carried
out. One of these sites was very close to the surface fault rupture (< 3 km distance), the other at a distance of about 4.5 km.
It is shown that the predictive methods available generally overestimated the losses at these distances, and a number of possible
reasons for these discrepancies are considered. The sensitivity of loss estimates to variations in the key parameters governing
the estimation in each case are explored, in particular with respect to modifications in the parameters of the attenuation
relationships and the vulnerability parameters. The implications of these results for estimating future losses are discussed.
This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. 相似文献
11.
汶川地震中极震区砌体结构教学楼典型震害分析 总被引：2，自引：3，他引：2
汶川8.0级大地震造成了巨大的损失,大量学校建筑遭受严重破坏,其中大部分是砌体结构教学楼。在此次地震中,极震区北川县擂鼓镇城区内的初中、小学和幼儿园等砌体结构教学楼的破坏极其严重,结构特征和震害现象十分典型。本文详细地介绍了擂鼓镇城区内5栋砌体结构教学楼的结构构造特点和震害现象特征,同时,总结归纳了砌体结构教学楼的典型震害并分析了震害原因;讨论并分析了建筑含墙率、开间大小、高宽比等因素对建筑的抗震能力的影响;通过结构易损性分析方法对教学楼在不同烈度下的破坏状态进行了计算,并与实际震害进行了对比分析;最后,为灾后教学楼的重建工作提出了建议。 相似文献
12.
13.
Building damage scenarios based on exploitation of Housner intensity derived from finite faults ground motion simulations 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
Leonardo Chiauzzi Angelo Masi Marco Mucciarelli Marco Vona Francesca Pacor Giovanna Cultrera Frantisek Gallovič Antonio Emolo 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2012,10(2):517-545
In this paper earthquake damage scenarios for residential buildings (about 4200 units) in Potenza (Southern Italy) have been
estimated adopting a novel probabilistic approach that involves complex source models, site effects, building vulnerability
assessment and damage estimation through Damage Probability Matrices. Several causative faults of single seismic events, with
magnitude up to 7, are known to be close to the town. A seismic hazard approach based on finite faults ground motion simulation
techniques has been used to identify the sources producing the maximum expected ground motion at Potenza and to generate a
set of ground motion time histories to be adopted for building damage scenarios. Additionally, site effects, evaluated in
a previous work through amplification factors of Housner intensity, have been combined with the bedrock values provided by
hazard assessment. Furthermore, a new relationship between Housner and EMS-98 macroseismic intensity has been developed. This
relationship has been used to convert the probability mass functions of Housner intensity obtained from synthetic seismograms
amplified by the site effects coefficients into probability mass function of EMS-98 intensity. Finally, the Damage Probability
Matrices have been applied to estimate the damage levels of the residential buildings located in the urban area of Potenza.
The proposed methodology returns the full probabilistic distribution of expected damage, thus avoiding average damage index
or uncertainties expressed in term of dispersion indexes. 相似文献
14.
房屋建筑的地震易损性是地震损失评估和地震巨灾风险模型的基础。作为房屋建筑的重要组成部分,各类非结构构件的损失在现有的易损性模型中并未得到足够重视。本文以一栋典型钢筋混凝土框架结构教学楼为对象,通过将房屋建筑中的各类构件划分为具有不同地震损伤特性和损失后果的易损性组,考察建筑内的损失分布和非结构损失对房屋建筑地震易损性的影响。分析结果表明:由于许多非结构构件在中小地震作用下即可能发生较严重的破坏,房屋建筑在中小地震下的易损性主要受非结构损失控制;随着地震动强度等级的不断提高,结构损伤渐趋严重,结构损失对整体建筑易损性的影响不断增大;在结构进入震后不可修状态之前,建筑不同楼层的损失分布是评估建筑地震损失时不可忽略的因素。 相似文献
15.
A comprehensive study is presented for empirical seismic vulnerability assessment of typical structural types, representative of the building stock of Southern Europe, based on a large set of damage statistics. The observational database was obtained from post-earthquake surveys carried out in the area struck by the September 7, 1999 Athens earthquake. After analysis of the collected observational data, a unified damage database has been created which comprises 180,945 damaged buildings from/after the near-field area of the earthquake. The damaged buildings are classified in specific structural types, according to the materials, seismic codes and construction techniques in Southern Europe. The seismic demand is described in terms of both the regional macroseismic intensity and the ratio αg/ao, where αg is the maximum peak ground acceleration (PGA) of the earthquake event and ao is the unique value PGA that characterizes each municipality shown on the Greek hazard map. The relative and cumulative frequencies of the different damage states for each structural type and each intensity level are computed in terms of damage ratio. Damage probability matrices (DPMs) and vulnerability curves are obtained for specific structural types. A comparison analysis is fulfilled between the produced and the existing vulnerability models. 相似文献
16.
Following the Mw 7.3 Martinique earthquake, November 29th, 2007, a post-seismic survey was conducted by the Bureau Central Sismologique Français (BCSF) for macroseismic intensities assessment. In addition to the inventories, ambient vibration recordings were performed close to the particularly damaged zones in the free-field and the buildings. The objective of the paper is to show the relevancy of performing ambient vibration recordings for post-earthquake surveys. The analyses of the recordings aim at explaining the variability of the damages through site effects, structure vulnerability or resonance phenomena and to help the characterization of the post-seismic building integrity. In three sites prone to site effects, we suspect damage to be related to a concordance between soil fundamental frequency and building resonance frequency. Besides, the recordings of ambient vibrations at La Trinité hospital before and after the earthquake allow us to quantify the damage due to earthquake in terms of stiffness loss. 相似文献
17.
高孟潭 《地震学报(英文版)》1995,8(2):259-264
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18.
A GIS-oriented procedure that may partially illuminate the consequences of a possible earthquake is presented in two main steps (seismic microzonation and vulnerability steps) along with its application in Tabriz (a city in NW Iran). First, the detailed geological, geodetical, geotechnical and geophysical parameters of the region are combined using an Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and a deterministic near-field earthquake of magnitude 7 in the North Tabriz Fault is simulated. This simulation provides differing intensities of ground shaking in the different districts of Tabriz. Second, the vulnerability of buildings, human losses and basic resources for survivors is estimated in district two of the city based on damage functions and relational analyses. The results demonstrate that 69.5% of existing buildings are completely destroyed, and the rate of fatalities is approximately 33% after a nighttime scenario. Finally, the same procedure was applied to an actual earthquake (first event on the 11th of August, 2012 of the Ahar twin earthquakes) to validate the presented model based on two aspects: (1) building damages and (2) seismic intensity. 相似文献
19.
以川南地区为研究区,并以在建造方式上具有明显当地地域特征的砖混结构房屋为研究对象,结合砖混结构房屋建造特点及川南历史地震(如长宁6.0级地震)震害调查结果等,分析砖混结构房屋典型震害特征,统计其在不同烈度下不同破坏等级的比例,采用经验分析法得到初步的易损性矩阵。在此基础上,针对因样本局限性造成的结构在高烈度下破坏比例不全,使实际易损性矩阵缺失的问题,通过插值法,推算高烈度下的破坏比例,补全经验易损性矩阵,拟合出易损性曲线,建立以震害统计为主、数值模拟为辅的砖混结构易损性分析模型;并基于平均震害指数对比分析,对易损性分析的可靠性进行检验。结果表明,构建的易损性矩阵能客观反映川南地区砖混结构房屋的抗震能力,对开展震害预测、灾害损失评估及震害风险评估等工作具有实际应用价值。 相似文献
20.
During the past 30 years, there has been spectacular growth in the use of risk analysis and risk management tools developed by engineers in the financial and insurance sectors. The insurance, the reinsurance, and the investment banking sectors have enthusiastically adopted loss estimation tools developed by engineers in developing their business strategies and for managing their financial risks. As a result, insurance/reinsurance strategy has evolved as a major risk mitigation tool in managing catastrophe risk at the individual, corporate, and government level. This is particularly true in developed countries such as US, Western Europe, and Japan. Unfortunately, it has not received the needed attention in developing countries, where such a strategy for risk management is most needed. Fortunately, in the last five years, there has been excellent focus in developing "Insur Tech" tools to address the much needed "Insurance for the Masses", especially for the Asian Markets. In the earlier years of catastrophe model development, risk analysts were mainly concerned with risk reduction options through engineering strategies, and relatively little attention was given to financial and economic strategies. Such state-of-affairs still exists in many developing countries. The new developments in the science and technologies of loss estimation due to natural catastrophes have made it possible for financial sectors to model their business strategies such as peril and geographic diversification, premium calculations, reserve strategies, reinsurance contracts, and other underwriting tools. These developments have not only changed the way in which financial sectors assess and manage their risks, but have also changed the domain of opportunities for engineers and scientists.This paper will address the issues related to developing insurance/reinsurance strategies to mitigate catastrophe risks and describe the role catastrophe risk insurance and reinsurance has played in managing financial risk due to natural catastrophes. Historical losses and the share of those losses covered by insurance will be presented. How such risk sharing can help the nation share the burden of losses between tax paying public, the "at risk" property owners, the insurers and the reinsurers will be discussed. The paper will summarize the tools that are used by the insurance and reinsurance companies for estimating their future losses due to catastrophic natural events. The paper will also show how the results of loss estimation technologies developed by engineers are communicated to the business flow of insurance/reinsurance companies. Finally, to make it possible to grow "Insurance for the Masses – IFM", the role played by parametric insurance products and Insur Tech tools will be discussed. 相似文献