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1.
In this paper, we have proposed an alternative seismic hazard modeling by using distributed seismicites. The distributed seismicity model does not need delineation of seismic source zones, and simplify the methodology of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. Based on the devastating earthquake catalogue, we established three seismi- city model, derived the distribution of a-value in northern China by using Gaussian smoothing function, and cal-culated peak ground acceleration distributions for this area with 2%, 5% and 10% probability of exceedance in a 50-year period by using three attenuation models, respectively. In general, the peak ground motion distribution patterns are consistent with current seismic hazard map of China, but in some specific seismic zones which in-clude Shanxi Province and Shijiazhuang areas, our results indicated a little bit higher peak ground motions and zonation characters which are in agreement with seismicity distribution patterns in these areas. The hazard curves have been developed for Beijing, Tianjin, Taiyuan, Tangshan, and Ji’nan, the metropolitan cities in the northern China. The results showed that Tangshan, Taiyuan, Beijing has a higher seismic hazard than that of other cities mentioned above. 相似文献
2.
Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis in Nepal 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
The seismic ground motion hazard for Nepal has been estimated using a probabilistic approach. A catalogue of earthquakes has been compiled for Nepal and the surrounding region （latitude 26% N and 31.7% N and longitude 79° E and 90° E） from 1255 to 2011. The distribution of catalogued earthquakes, together with available geological and tectonic information were used to delineate twenty-three seismic source seismic source information and probabilistic earthquake hazard prediction relationship, peak ground accelerations （PGAs） have zones in Nepal and the surrounding region. By using the parameters in conjunction with a selected ground motion been calculated at bedrock level with 63%, 10%, and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years. The estimated PGA values are in the range of 0.07-0.16 g, 0.21 0.62 g, and 0.38-1.1 g for 63%, 10%, and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years, respectively. The resulting ground motion maps show different characteristics of PGA distribution, i.e., high hazard in the far-western and eastern sections, and low hazard in southern Nepal. The quantified PGA values at bedrock level provide information for microzonation studies in different parts of the country. 相似文献
3.
《中国科学D辑(英文版)》2008,(12)
The Wenchuan earthquake of 12 May 2008 is the most destructive earthquake in China in the past 30 years in terms of property damage and human losses. In order to understand the earthquake process and the geo-morphological factors affecting the seismic hazard, we simulated the strong ground mo-tion caused by the earthquake, incorporating three-dimensional (3D) earth structure, finite-fault rupture, and realistic surface topography. The simulated ground motions reveal that the fault rupture and basin structure control the overall pattern of the peak ground shaking. Large peak ground velocity (PGV) is distributed in two narrow areas: one with the largest PGV values is above the hanging wall of the fault and attributed to the locations of fault asperities and rupture directivity; the other is along the north-western margin of the Sichuan Basin and caused by both the directivity of fault rupture and the ampli-fication in the thick sediment basin. Rough topography above the rupture fault causes wave scattering, resulting in significantly larger peak ground motion on the apex of topographic relief than in the valley. Topography and scattering also reduce the wave energy in the forward direction of fault rupture but increase the PGV in other parts of the basin. These results suggest the need for a localized hazard as-sessment in places of rough topography that takes the topographic effects into account. Finally, had the earthquake started at the northeast end of the fault zone and ruptured to the southwest, Chengdu would have suffered a much stronger shaking than it experienced on 12 May, 2008. 相似文献
4.
Study on inelastic displacement ratio spectra for near-fault pulse-type ground motions 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：2
In displacement-based seismic design, inelastic displacement ratio spectra (IDRS) are particularly useful for estimating the maximum lateral inelastic displacement demand of a nonlinear SDOF system from the maximum elastic displacement demand of its counterpart linear elastic SDOF system. In this study, the characteristics of IDRS for near-fault pulse-type ground motions are investigated based on a great number of earthquake ground motions. The in? uence of site conditions, ratio of peak ground velocity (PGV) to peak ground acceleration (PGA), the PGV, and the maximum incremental velocity (MIV) on IDRS are also evaluated. The results indicate that the effect of near-fault ground motions on IDRS are signifi cant only at periods between 0.2 s - 1.5 s, where the amplifi cation can approach 20%. The PGV/PGA ratio has the most signifi cant in? uence on IDRS among the parameters considered. It is also found that site conditions only slightly affect the IDRS. 相似文献
5.
Development of attenuation relation for the near fault ground motion from the characteristic earthquake 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
A composite source model has been used to simulate a broadband strong ground motion with an associated fault rupture process. A scenario earthquake fault model has been used to generate 1 000 earthquake events with a magni-tude of Mw8.0. The simulated results show that, for the characteristic event with a strike-slip faulting, the character istics of near fault ground motion is strongly dependent on the rupture directivity. If the distance between the sites and fault was given, the ground motion in the forward direction (Site A) is much larger than that in the backward direction (Site C) and that close to the fault (Site B). The SH waves radiated from the fault, which corresponds to the fault-normal component plays a key role in the ground motion amplification. Corresponding to the sites A, B, and C, the statistical analysis shows that the ratio of their aPG is 2.15:1.5:1 and their standard deviations are about 0.12, 0.11, and 0.13, respectively. If these results are applied in the current probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), then, for the lower annual frequency of exceedance of peak ground acceleration, the predicted aPG from the hazard curve could reduce by 30% or more compared with the current PSHA model used in the developing of seismic hazard map in the USA. Therefore, with a consideration of near fault ground motion caused by the rupture directivity, the regression model used in the development of the regional attenuation relation should be modified accordingly. 相似文献
6.
On the basis of previous study of the 1679 Sanhe-Pinggu(M8.0) earthquake,the biggest event in history ever recorded in Beijing and its adjacent area,we made a 3-D strong ground motion simulation utilizing the staggered-grid finite differences method to study the distributions of peak ground velocity with different earthquake source models in the Beijing region.In the paper,earthquake source models and a transmission medium velocity model are established and the corresponding parameters are given in accordance to the results from a related previous study.Then,using a three-dimensional finite difference computing program of near-fault strong ground motion developed by Graves,the peak ground velocity caused by a destructive earthquake in the Beijing area is simulated.In our computation model,the earthquake source is 3km in depth,and a total number of 21,679 observation points on the ground surface are figured out.The transmission medium velocity model is composed of four stratums which are the Quaternary deposit,the upper crust,the upper part of the middle crust and the lower part of the middle crust.With the minimum grid spacing of 0.15km,a total of 2.28×106 grids are generated.Using a time step of 0.02 seconds we calculated the peak ground velocity for a duration of 8 seconds.After the analysis of the simulation results,we observed some basic characteristics of near-fault strong ground motion such as the concentration effect of near-fault peak ground velocity,rupture directivity effect,hanging wall effect,and basin effect.The results from our simulation and analysis suggest that the source and transmitting medium parameters in our model are suitable and the finite difference method is applicable to estimate the distribution of strong ground motion in the study region. 相似文献
7.
A comprehensive study is presented for empirical seismic vulnerability assessment of typical structural types, representative of the building stock of Southern Europe, based on a large set of damage statistics. The observational database was obtained from post-earthquake surveys carried out in the area struck by the September 7, 1999 Athens earthquake. After analysis of the collected observational data, a unified damage database has been created which comprises 180,945 damaged buildings from/after the near-field area of the earthquake. The damaged buildings are classified in specific structural types, according to the materials, seismic codes and construction techniques in Southern Europe. The seismic demand is described in terms of both the regional macroseismic intensity and the ratio αg/ao, where αg is the maximum peak ground acceleration (PGA) of the earthquake event and ao is the unique value PGA that characterizes each municipality shown on the Greek hazard map. The relative and cumulative frequencies of the different damage states for each structural type and each intensity level are computed in terms of damage ratio. Damage probability matrices (DPMs) and vulnerability curves are obtained for specific structural types. A comparison analysis is fulfilled between the produced and the existing vulnerability models. 相似文献
8.
Numerical Green’s function method:Application to quantifying ground motion variations of M7 earthquakes 
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下载免费PDF全文 The concept of "numerical Green’s functions" (NGF or Green’s function database) is developed. The basic idea is: a large seismic fault is divided into subfaults of appropriate size, for which synthetic Green’s functions at the surface (NGF) are calculated and stored. Consequently, ground motions from arbitrary kinematic sources can be simulated, rapidly, for the whole fault or parts of it by superposition. The target fault is a simplified, vertical model of the Newport-Inglewood fault in the Los Angeles basin. This approach and its functionality are illustrated by investigating the variations of ground motions (e.g. peak ground velocity and synthetic seismograms) due to the source complexity. The source complexities are considered with two respects: hypocenter location and slip history. The results show a complex behavior, with dependence of absolute peak ground velocity and their variation on source process directionality, hypocenter location, local structure, and static slip asperity location. We concluded that combining effect due to 3-D structure and finite-source is necessary to quan- tify ground motion characteristics and their variations. Our results will facilitate the earthquake hazard assessment projects. 相似文献
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10.
ShahidA.Khan M.AliShah M.Qaisar 《地震学报(英文版)》2003,16(4):382-394
Estimation of seismic hazard for the fast developing coastal area of Pakistan is carried out using deterministic and probabilistic approaches. On the basis of seismotectonics and geology, eleven faults are recognized in five seismic provinces as potential hazard sources. Maximum magnitude potential for each of these sources is calculated. Peak ground acceleration (PGA) values at the seven coastal cities due to the maximum credible earthquake on the relevant source are also obtained. Cities of Gwadar and Ormara with acceleration values of 0.21g and 0.25g respec-tively fall in the high seismic risk area. Cities of Turbat and Karachi lie in low seismic risk area with acceleration values of less than 0.1g. The Probabilistic PGA maps with contour interval of 0.05g for 50 and 100 years return period with 90% probability of non-exceedance are also compiled. 相似文献
11.
In this study, a composite source model has been used to calculate the realistic strong ground motions in Beijing area, caused by 1679 M S8.0 earthquake in Sanhe-Pinggu. The results could provide us the useful physical parameters for the future seismic hazard analysis in this area. Considering the regional geological/geophysical background, we simulated the scenario earthquake with an associated ground motions in the area ranging from 39.3°N to 41.1°N in latitude and from 115.35°E to 117.55°E in longitude. Some of the key factors which could influence the characteristics of strong ground motion have been discussed, and the resultant peak ground acceleration (PGA) distribution and the peak ground velocity (PGV) distribution around Beijing area also have been made as well. A comparison of the simulated result with the results derived from the attenuation relation has been made, and a sufficient discussion about the advantages and disadvantages of composite source model also has been given in this study. The numerical results, such as the PGA, PGV, peak ground displacement (PGD), and the three-component time-histories developed for Beijing area, have a potential application in earthquake engineering field and building code design, especially for the evaluation of critical constructions, government decision making and the seismic hazard assessment by financial/insurance companies. 相似文献
12.
利用2014年鲁甸M_S6.5地震断层距小于300 km的32个自由场地观测台站的地震动加速度记录,分析了地震动峰值加速度(PGA)和峰值速度(PGV)的空间分布特征,并对已有地震动衰减模型中的NGA-West2四个模型和1个中国川藏区模型进行了比较分析.研究表明,地震动PGA和PGV衰减最快的方向与断层主破裂方向一致.在整个断层距(R_(rup))范围内大多数台站的地震动PGA、PGV和加速度反应谱值(Sa(T=0.1、5.0 s))均位于NGA-West2四个模型预测曲线的±1倍标准差之外.PGA、PGV和Sa(T=5.0 s)的事件内残差均值在-1.43～-0.74之间.Sa(T=0.01～5.0 s)事件内残差均值在整个距离范围内均表现出系统性偏负.NGA-West2四个模型的PGA事件内残差的空间分布特征相似,其最大正值和最大负值分布区域的震源-场地方位角约为-90°和90°,与主破裂断层方向垂直,所处地势较为平坦且台站场地V_(S30)相对较大.NGA-West2四个模型总体上会较大地高估鲁甸地震整个断层距范围内各个周期尤其是短周期(T1.0 s)的地震动加速度反应谱值.考虑本地区实际地震资料的中国川藏区地震动衰减模型也会在一定程度上高估鲁甸地震大多数台站的地震动加速度反应谱值,但是相对于NGA-West2四个模型,其预测值更接近鲁甸地震的实际观测值. 相似文献
13.
14.
The Wenchuan earthquake of 12 May 2008 is the most destructive earthquake in China in the past 30 years in terms of property
damage and human losses. In order to understand the earthquake process and the geo-morphological factors affecting the seismic
hazard, we simulated the strong ground motion caused by the earthquake, incorporating three-dimensional (3D) earth structure,
finite-fault rupture, and realistic surface topography. The simulated ground motions reveal that the fault rupture and basin
structure control the overall pattern of the peak ground shaking. Large peak ground velocity (PGV) is distributed in two narrow
areas: one with the largest PGV values is above the hanging wall of the fault and attributed to the locations of fault asperities
and rupture directivity; the other is along the northwestern margin of the Sichuan Basin and caused by both the directivity
of fault rupture and the amplification in the thick sediment basin. Rough topography above the rupture fault causes wave scattering,
resulting in significantly larger peak ground motion on the apex of topographic relief than in the valley. Topography and
scattering also reduce the wave energy in the forward direction of fault rupture but increase the PGV in other parts of the
basin. These results suggest the need for a localized hazard assessment in places of rough topography that takes the topographic
effects into account. Finally, had the earthquake started at the northeast end of the fault zone and ruptured to the southwest,
Chengdu would have suffered a much stronger shaking than it experienced on 12 May, 2008.
Supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation (Grant Nos. EAR 0738779 and OCE 0727919), the National Basic Research Program
of China (Grant No. 2004CB418404), and partially by the National Nature Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 40521002) 相似文献
15.
Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Thailand 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
Teraphan Ornthammarath Pennung Warnitchai Kawin Worakanchana Saeed Zaman Ragnar Sigbj?rnsson Carlo Giovanni Lai 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2011,9(2):367-394
A set of probabilistic seismic hazard maps for Thailand has been derived using procedures developed for the latest US National
Seismic Hazard Maps. In contrast to earlier hazard maps for this region, which are mostly computed using seismic source zone
delineations, the presented maps are based on the combination of smoothed gridded seismicity, crustal-fault, and subduction
source models. Thailand’s composite earthquake catalogue is revisited and expanded, covering a study area limited by 0°–30°N
Latitude and 88°–110°E Longitude and the instrumental period from 1912 to 2007. The long-term slip rates and estimates of
earthquake size from paleoseismological studies are incorporated through a crustal fault source model. Furthermore, the subduction
source model is used to model the megathrust Sunda subduction zones, with variable characteristics along the strike of the
faults. Epistemic uncertainty is taken into consideration by the logic tree framework incorporating basic quantities, such
as different source modelling, maximum cut-off magnitudes and ground motion prediction equations. The ground motion hazard
map is presented over a 10 km grid in terms of peak ground acceleration and spectral acceleration at 0.2, 1.0, and 2.0 undamped
natural periods and a 5% critical damping ratio for 10 and 2% probabilities of exceedance in 50 years. The presented maps
give expected ground motions that are based on more extensive data sources than applied in the development of previous maps.
The main findings are that northern and western Thailand are subjected to the highest hazard. The largest contributors to
short- and long-period ground motion hazard in the Bangkok region are from the nearby active faults and Sunda subduction zones,
respectively. 相似文献
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17.
A proper assessment of seismic hazard is of considerable importance in order to achieve suitable building construction criteria. This paper presents probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in and around Pakistan (23° N–39° N; 59° E–80° E) in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA). Ground motion is calculated in terms of PGA for a return period of 475 years using a seismogenic-free zone method of Gumbel’s first asymptotic distribution of extreme values and Monte Carlo simulation. Appropriate attenuation relations of universal and local types have been used in this study. The results show that for many parts of Pakistan, the expected seismic hazard is relatively comparable with the level specified in the existing PGA maps. 相似文献
18.
利用华北地区地震活动性资料,建立了地震危险性计算的一致性模型.在此模型的基础上,得出了北京、天津、唐山和济南等7个城市未来2500年内地震的时空强度分布,并计算了2500年回复周期的地震动峰值加速度(PGA).结果表明,唐山和太原的PGA最大(>0.2g),石家庄和北京次之(≈0.17g).对华北地区2500年地震记录的正演计算结果表明,太原和唐山地区的潜在地震危险最有可能来源于震级在6.0～7.0、震中距离在12～15km的地震活动;而北京、天津和石家庄地区则可能来源于震级在5.5～6.0、震中距离在10km左右的地震活动.采用IBC(International Building Code)方法计算后的结果显示,太原、唐山等地区的PGA与2001年我国地震动峰值加速度值基本一致,与此地区的较高地震活动性特征相符.利用随机震源模型,还给出了影响此7个城市的最大地震记录的加速度、速度及位移时程曲线,这对本区工程建筑的抗震性设计以及对救援设施的选址等有重要作用. 相似文献