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1.
The social and cultural dimensions of arctic environmental change were explored through Canada??s International Polar Year (IPY) research program. Drawing on concepts of vulnerability, resilience and human security, we discuss preliminary results of 15 IPY research projects (of 52) which dealt with the effects and responses of northern communities to issues of ecological variability, natural resource development and climate change. This paper attempts to determine whether the preliminary results of these projects have contributed to the IPY program goal of building knowledge about well-being in the arctic. The projects were diverse in focus and approach but together offer a valuable pan-northern perspective on many themes including land and resource use, food security, poverty and best practices of northern engagement. Case study research using self-reported measures suggests individual views of their own well-being differ from regional and territorial standardized statistics on quality of life. A large body of work was developed around changes in land and resource use. A decline in land and resource use in some areas and consequent concerns for food security, are directly linked to the effects of climate change, particularly in coastal areas where melting sea ice, erratic weather events and changes in the stability of landscapes (e.g., erosion, slumping) are leading to increased risks for land users. Natural resource development, while creating some new economic opportunities, may be compounding rather than offsetting such stresses of environmental change for vulnerable populations. While the IPY program has contributed to our understanding of some aspects of well-being in the arctic, many other issues of social, economic, cultural and political significance, including those unrelated to environmental change, remain poorly understood. 相似文献
2.
Stewart Cohen Denise Neilsen Scott Smith Tina Neale Bill Taylor Mark Barton Wendy Merritt Younes Alila Philippa Shepherd Roger Mcneill James Tansey Jeff Carmichael Stacy Langsdale 《Climatic change》2006,75(3):331-358
The research activity described in this report is a comprehensive regional assessment of the impacts of climate change on
water resources and options for adaptation in the Okanagan Basin. The ultimate goal of the project is to develop integrated
climate change and water resource scenarios to stimulate a multistakeholder discussion on the implications of climate change
for water management in the region.
The paper describes two main objectives: (a) providing a set of research products that will be of relevance to regional interests
in the Okanagan, and (b) establishing a methodology for participatory integrated assessment of regional climate change impacts
and adaptation that could be applied to climate-related concerns in Canada and other countries.
This collaborative study has relied on field research, computer-based models, and dialogue exercises to generate an assessment
of future implications, and to learn about regional views on the prospects for adaptation. Along the way, it has benefited
from strong partnerships with governments, researchers, local water practitioners, and user groups. Building on the scenario-based
study components, and a series of interviews and surveys undertaken for the water management and adaptation case study components,
a set of stakeholder dialogue sessions were organized which focused on identifying preferred adaptation options and processes
for their implementation. Rather than seeking consensus on the “best” option or process, regional interests were asked to
consider a range of available options as part of an adaptation portfolio that could address both supply side and demand side
aspects of water resources management in the Okanagan.
The Canadian Crown reserves the right to retain a non-exclusive, royalty free licence in and to any copyright. 相似文献
3.
2014年9月,IPCC联合世界气候研究计划（WCRP）,在瑞士伯尔尼大学召开了一次特别的研讨会,总结过去几年气候变化科学研究中所取得的经验教训。此次会议针对IPCC最新评估报告中的关键不确定性,梳理并总结了未来气候变化研究的主要科学方向和面临的主要挑战,讨论了如何与WCRP计划结合并解决这些问题,以期在未来更好地应对这些挑战。在此次会议上,与会专家提出,未来气候变化科学研究的重大挑战应包括如下8个主题。云、环流与气候敏感度;理解和预测极端天气气候事件;冰冻圈变化;区域气候信息;区域海平面上升及其对沿海地区的影响;水资源可利用量;生物地球化学、气溶胶和大气化学;理解年代际变化：归因与预测。这些主题涵盖了WCRP计划的六大挑战和其他被认为具有挑战性的主题。本文将在此次会议报告的基础上,对相关内容进行介绍,以供当前的气候变化工作参考。 相似文献
4.
Key limitations of integrated assessment models (IAMs) are their highly stylized and aggregated representation of climate damages and associated economic responses, as well as the omission of specific investments related to climate change adaptation. This paper proposes a framework for modeling climate impacts and adaptation that clarifies the relevant research issues and provides a template for making improvements. We identify five desirable characteristics of an ideal integrated assessment modeling platform, which we elaborate into a conceptual model that distinguishes three different classes of adaptation-related activities. Based on these elements we specify an impacts- and adaptation-centric IAM, whose optimality conditions are used to highlight the types of functional relationships necessary for realistic representations of adaptation-related decisions, the specific mechanisms by which these responses can be incorporated into IAMs, and the ways in which the inclusion of adaptation is likely to affect the simulations’ results. 相似文献
5.
This paper considers how farmers perceive and respond to climate change policy risks, and suggests that understanding these risk responses is as important as understanding responses to biophysical climate change impacts. Based on a survey of 162 farmers in California, we test three hypotheses regarding climate policy risk: (1) that perceived climate change risks will have a direct impact on farmer's responses to climate policy risks, (2) that previous climate change experiences will influence farmer's climate change perceptions and climate policy risk responses, and (3) that past experiences with environmental policies will more strongly affect a farmer's climate change beliefs, risks, and climate policy risk responses. Using a structural equation model we find support for all three hypotheses and furthermore show that farmers’ negative past policy experiences do not make them less likely to respond to climate policy risks through participation in a government incentive program. We discuss how future research and climate policies can be structured to garner greater agricultural participation. This work highlights that understanding climate policy risk responses and other social, economic and policy perspectives is a vital component of understanding climate change beliefs, risks and behaviors and should be more thoroughly considered in future work. 相似文献
6.
2022年4月4日,IPCC第六次评估报告第三工作组《气候变化2022:减缓气候变化》报告和决策者摘要发布。报告全面评估了2010年以来减缓气候变化领域的最新科学进展,为国际社会深度认识和理解全球温室气体排放情况、不同温升水平下的减排路径以及可持续发展背景下的气候变化减缓和适应行动等提供了重要科学依据。基于报告主要结论,围绕温室气体排放的区域差异、减缓路径分类、与土地利用相关的排放评估及CO去除技术评估等方面的亮点,文中提出在应对气候变化减缓政策行动中,中国应坚定“双碳”战略目标,在综合考虑经济发展阶段和资源禀赋差异背景下,将可持续发展、公平和消除贫困植根于社会发展愿景中实施减缓路径,并加快提升气候变化综合评估核心科学技术的研发进度,以进一步提升国际影响力和话语权。 相似文献
7.
Ian Burton 《Climatic change》1997,36(1-2):185-196
The paper explores the distinction between climate and climate change. Adaptation to current climate variability has been proposed as an additional way to approach adaptation to long-term climate change. In effect improved adaptation to current climate is a step in preparation for longer term climate change. International programs of research and assessment are separately organized to deal with natural disasters and climate change. There is no scientific concensus so far, that extreme events have changed in frequency on a world-wide basis, although some regional changes have occured. It is extremely unlikely that significant shifts in the means of weather distrbutions will take place without shifts in the tails. In some situations it may make more sense to focus on adaptation to extreme events and the tails of distributions. In other circumstances adaptation to the norms is the logical focus. The relationship between normal climate and climate change is examined in terms of single and complex variables and phenomena. It is proposed that the research communities studying adaptation to extreme events and adaptation to climate change work more closely together, perhaps in a newly organized joint research program. 相似文献
8.
The workshop focused on methodologies to assess the impacts of climate change on terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems and their socioeconomic consequences. It did not deal in any detail with the other components (i.e., models designed to estimate changes in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases or in climatic factors) of an integrated assessment shown in Figure 2 of the introduction. This final chapter discusses some of the issues addressed during the San Diego workshop and highlights a few of the major findings of the papers. Issues discussed below include limitations of past modeling efforts and impediments to developing better models of the impacts of climate change on forest, grassland, and water resources; suggestions for future research both to develop better data and models and to employ existing data and modeling capabilities to improve the usefulness of climate impact assessments for policy purposes; and the need for developing a common assessment framework.The views expressed here are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of their institutions or the other participants in the February 28 to March 3, 1993 workshop held in San Diego, California. 相似文献
9.
Climate change impacts on marine environments have been somewhat neglected in climate change research, particularly with regard to their social dimensions and implications. This paper contributes to addressing this gap through presenting a UK focused mixed-method study of how publics frame, understand and respond to marine climate change-related issues. It draws on data from a large national survey of UK publics (N = 1,001), undertaken in January 2011 as part of a wider European survey, in conjunction with in-depth qualitative insights from a citizens’ panel with participants from the East Anglia region, UK. This reveals that discrete marine climate change impacts, as often framed in technical or institutional terms, were not the most immediate or significant issues for most respondents. Study participants tended to view these climate impacts ‘in context’, in situated ways, and as entangled with other issues relating to marine environments and their everyday lives. Whilst making connections with scientific knowledge on the subject, public understandings of marine climate impacts were mainly shaped by personal experience, the visibility and proximity of impacts, sense of personal risk and moral or equity-based arguments. In terms of responses, study participants prioritised climate change mitigation measures over adaptation, even in high-risk areas. We consider the implications of these insights for research and practices of public engagement on marine climate impacts specifically, and climate change more generally. 相似文献
10.
Christoph Schlumpf Claudia Pahl-Wostl Andreas Schönborn Carlo C. Jaeger Dieter Imboden 《Climatic change》2001,51(2):199-241
Participatory Integrated Assessement (IA) methods complement analytical methods like IA-modeling in their explicit inclusion of stakeholders and decision-makers in the assessment. Integrated Assessment is perceived as a process of social learning involving scientists, stakeholders, policymakers and the society at large. We introduce a new approach to provide expert knowledge for participatory integrated assessments of regional climate change: `Interactive Citizen's Information Tools' (ICITs). ICITs provide citizens with expert knowledge about causes of climate change, potential impacts, and policy options to address anthropogenic climate change. In this paper we discuss the development and application of IMPACTS in IA-focus groups in Switzerland. IMPACTS is based on user-friendly hypermedia technologies and allows citizens to get informed on a broad range of potential climate change impacts – with an emphasison prevailing uncertainties. IA-focus groups are deliberative group discussions that make use of computer tools to support the discussion and assessment. The goal of IA-focus groups is to elicit how informed citizens judge the risks of anthropogenic climate change. Experiences with IMPACTS showed that the combination of focus groups with ICITs is a feasible and promising approach for a participatory IA of regional climate change, in particular, and of complex environmental issues, in general. 相似文献
11.
12.
Regional Energy Demand Responses To Climate Change: Methodology And Application To The Commonwealth Of Massachusetts 总被引：1，自引：2，他引：1
Climate is a major determinant of energy demand. Changes in climate may alter energy demand as well as energy demand patterns.
This study investigates the implications of climate change for energy demand under the hypothesis that impacts are scale dependent
due to region-specific climatic variables, infrastructure, socioeconomic, and energy use profiles.
In this analysis we explore regional energy demand responses to climate change by assessing temperature-sensitive energy demand
in the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. The study employs a two-step estimation and modeling procedure. The first step evaluates
the historic temperature sensitivity of residential and commercial demand for electricity and heating fuels, using a degree-day
methodology. We find that when controlling for socioeconomic factors, degree-day variables have significant explanatory power
in describing historic changes in residential and commercial energy demands. In the second step, we assess potential future
energy demand responses to scenarios of climate change. Model results are based on alternative climate scenarios that were
specifically derived for the region on the basis of local climatological data, coupled with regional information from available
global climate models. We find notable changes with respect to overall energy consumption by, and energy mix of the residential
and commercial sectors in the region. On the basis of our findings, we identify several methodological issues relevant to
the development of climate change impact assessments of energy demand. 相似文献
13.
Discerning the general public’s support of climate change policies is a significant part of understanding the political and
social dynamics of mitigating climate change. National level surveys are a useful tool for furthering this understanding but
present multiple challenges, two of which are addressed in this paper. The first challenge is that the U.S. public’s limited
knowledge of climate change issues requires that information is provided in the survey, and that the content of this information
is thought to be critical in eliciting accurate responses. Second, the use of national surveys may mask regional and state
differences that result from the distribution of predicted climate change impacts and varying social contexts. We explore
these issues by assessing the impacts of (a) the provision of information on climate change impacts at different scales (national
and regional) and (b) the respondent’s state of residence (Michigan or Virginia) on climate change policy support. We found
a modest relationship between state of residence and policy support, with Michigan residents less likely to support climate
change mitigation policies than residents of Virginia. The provision of information on the regional versus national level
of predicted impacts of climate change did not influence climate change policy support. 相似文献
14.
I. P. Holman R. J. Nicholls P. M. Berry P. A. Harrison E. Audsley S. Shackley M. D. A. Rounsevell 《Climatic change》2005,71(1-2):9-41
Policy makers and stakeholders are increasingly demanding impact assessments which produce policy-relevant guidance on the
local impacts of global climate change. The ‘Regional Climate Change Impact and Response Studies in East Anglia and North West England’ (RegIS) study
developed a methodology for stakeholder-led, regional climate change impact assessment that explicitly evaluated local and
regional (sub-national) scale impacts and adaptation options, and cross-sectoral interactions between four major sectors driving
landscape change (agriculture, biodiversity, coasts and floodplains and water resources). The ‘Drivers-Pressure-State-Impact-Response’
(DPSIR) approach provided a structure for linking the modelling and scenario techniques. A 5 × 5 km grid was chosen for numerical
modelling input (climate and socio-economic scenarios) and output, as a compromise between the climate scenario resolution
(10 × 10 km) and the detailed spatial resolution output desired by stakeholders. Fundamental methodological issues have been
raised by RegIS which reflect the difficulty of multi-sectoral modelling studies at local scales. In particular, the role
of scenarios, error propagation in linked models, model validity, transparency and transportability as well as the use of
integrated assessment to evaluate adaptation options to climate change are examined. Integrated assessments will provide new
insights which will compliment those derived by more detailed sectoral assessments. 相似文献
15.
Regional climate models represent a promising tool to assess the regional dimension of future climate change and are widely used in climate impact research. While the added value of regional climate models has been highlighted with respect to a better representation of land-surface interactions and atmospheric processes, it is still unclear whether radiative heating implies predictability down to the typical scale of a regional climate model. As a quantitative assessment, we apply an optimal statistical filter to compare the coherence between observed and simulated patterns of Mediterranean climate change from a global and a regional climate model. It is found that the regional climate model has indeed an added value in the detection of regional climate change, contrary to former assumptions. The optimal filter may also serve as a weighting factor in multi-model averaging. 相似文献
16.
José A. Rial Roger A. Pielke Sr. Martin Beniston Martin Claussen Josep Canadell Peter Cox Hermann Held Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudré Ronald Prinn James F. Reynolds José D. Salas 《Climatic change》2004,65(1-2):11-38
The Earth's climate system is highly nonlinear: inputs and outputs are not proportional, change is often episodic and abrupt, rather than slow and gradual, and multiple equilibria are the norm. While this is widely accepted, there is a relatively poor understanding of the different types of nonlinearities, how they manifest under various conditions, and whether they reflect a climate system driven by astronomical forcings, by internal feedbacks, or by a combination of both. In this paper, after a brief tutorial on the basics of climate nonlinearity, we provide a number of illustrative examples and highlight key mechanisms that give rise to nonlinear behavior, address scale and methodological issues, suggest a robust alternative to prediction that is based on using integrated assessments within the framework of vulnerability studies and, lastly, recommend a number of research priorities and the establishment of education programs in Earth Systems Science. It is imperative that the Earth's climate system research community embraces this nonlinear paradigm if we are to move forward in the assessment of the human influence on climate. 相似文献
17.
Climate change and mental health: an exploratory case study from Rigolet, Nunatsiavut, Canada 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Ashlee Cunsolo Willox Sherilee L. Harper James D. Ford Victoria L. Edge Karen Landman Karen Houle Sarah Blake Charlotte Wolfrey 《Climatic change》2013,121(2):255-270
As the impacts from anthropogenic climate change are increasing globally, people are experiencing dramatic shifts in weather, temperature, wildlife and vegetation patterns, and water and food quality and availability. These changes impact human health and well-being, and resultantly, climate change has been identified as the biggest global health threat of the 21st Century. Recently, research is beginning to indicate that changes in climate, and the subsequent disruption to the social, economic, and environmental determinants of health, may cause increased incidences and prevalence of mental health issues, emotional responses, and large-scale sociopsychological changes. Through a multi-year, community-led, exploratory case study conducted in Rigolet, Nunatsiavut, Labrador, Canada, this research qualitatively explores the impacts of climate change on mental health and well-being in an Inuit context. Drawing from 67 in-depth interviews conducted between January 2010 and October 2010 with community members and local and regional health professionals, participants reported that changes in weather, snow and ice stability and extent, and wildlife and vegetation patterns attributed to climate change were negatively impacting mental health and well-being due to disruptions in land-based activities and a loss of place-based solace and cultural identity. Participants reported that changes in climate and environment increased family stress, enhanced the possibility of increased drug and alcohol usage, amplified previous traumas and mental health stressors, and were implicated in increased potential for suicide ideation. While a preliminary case study, these exploratory findings indicate that climate change is becoming an additional mental health stressor for resource-dependent communities and provide a baseline for further research. 相似文献
18.
联合国气候变化框架公约适应委员会职能谈判焦点解析 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
在《联合国气候变化框架公约》(简称《公约》)下建立适应委员会是当前气候变化国际谈判中发展中国家和发达国家争论的焦点之一。通过对《公约》下现有机构的职能分析和已开展的适应行动的回顾,提出适应委员会需赋予适应规划、政策制定、资金需求评估、项目实施、协调区域中心等关键职能。针对谈判中的焦点问题,发展中国家应坚持以下三点：将适应委员会建立在《公约》之下,提高适应委员会的作用;发展中国家在适应委员会中占多数席位;适应委员会与资金和技术机制直接联系,落实开展具体适应活动的资金和技术支持。 相似文献
19.
The appropriate level of spatial resolution for climate scenarios is a key uncertainty in climate impact studies and regional integrated assessments. To the extent that such uncertainty may affect the magnitude of economic estimates of climate change, it has implications for the public policy debates concerning the efficiency of CO2 control options. In this article, we investigate the effects that different climate scenario resolutions have on economic estimates of the impacts of future climate changeon agriculture in the United States. These results are derived via a set of procedures and an analytical model that has been used previously in climate change assessments. The results demonstrate that the spatial scale of climate scenarios affects the estimates of both regional changes in crop yields and the economic impact on the agricultural sector as a whole. An assessment based on the finer scale climatological information consistently yielded a less favorable assessment of the implications of climate change. Regional indicators of economic activity were of opposite sign in some regions, based on the scenario scale. Such differences in economic magnitudes or signs are potentially important in examining whether past climate change assessments may misstate the economic consequences of such changes. The results reported here suggest that refinement of the spatial scale of scenarios should be carefully considered in future impacts research. 相似文献
20.
Bart van den Hurk Geert Jan van Oldenborgh Geert Lenderink Wilco Hazeleger Rein Haarsma Hylke de Vries 《Climate Dynamics》2014,42(5-6):1683-1697
For the construction of regional climate change scenarios spanning a relevant fraction of the spread in climate model projections, an inventory of major drivers of regional climate change is needed. For the Netherlands, a previous set of regional climate change scenarios was based on the decomposition of local temperature/precipitation changes into components directly linked to the level of global warming, and components related to changes in the regional atmospheric circulation. In this study this decomposition is revisited utilizing the extensive modelling results from the CMIP5 model ensemble in support for the 5th IPCC assessment. Rather than selecting a number of GCMs based on performance metrics or relevant response features, a regression technique was developed to utilize all available model projections. The large number of projections allows a quantification of the separate contributions of emission scenarios, systematic model responses and natural variability to the total likelihood range. Natural variability plays a minor role in modelled differences in the global mean temperature response, but contributes for up to 50 % to the range of mean sea level pressure responses and local precipitation. Using key indicators (“steering variables”) for the temperature and circulation response, the range in local seasonal mean temperature and precipitation responses can be fairly well reproduced. 相似文献