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1.
基于均一化格点资料的全球变暖趋缓期中国气温变化特征分析 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
利用1961-2014年水平分辨率为0.5°×0.5°的均一化气温网格数据,分析全球变暖趋缓期（1998-2014年）中国气温的变化特征。结果显示：1998-2014年中国气温上升趋缓明显,与增暖期（1985-1997年）相比,年平均气温和年平均最高气温由升温趋势转为降温趋势,分别为-0.05℃/10a和-0.11℃/10a,而年平均最低气温仍保持弱的上升趋势（0.06℃/10a）。全球变暖趋缓期中国的增暖型发生了显著变化：北方地区由增温趋势转为降温趋势,青藏高原和西南地区则呈现出相对强的增温趋势;从季节来看,冬季降温最强、夏季增温较其他季节偏强,而冬季（强降温）正是中国增暖趋缓的主要贡献季节。增温最强的要素仍然是最低气温。 相似文献
2.
General circulation models (GCMs) are unanimous in projecting warmer temperatures in an enhanced CO2 atmosphere, with amplification of this warming in higher latitudes. The Hudson Bay region, which is located in the Arctic and subarctic regions of Canada, should therefore be strongly influenced by global warming. In this study, we compare the response of Hudson Bay to a transient warming scenario provided by six-coupled atmosphere-ocean models. Our analysis focuses on surface temperature, precipitation, sea-ice coverage, and permafrost distribution. The results show that warming is expected to peak in winter over the ocean, because of a northward retreat of the sea-ice cover. Also, a secondary warming peak is observed in summer over land in the Canadian and Australian-coupled GCMs, which is associated with both a reduction in soil moisture conditions and changes in permafrost distribution. In addition, a relationship is identified between the retreat of the sea-ice cover and an enhancement of precipitation over both land and oceanic surfaces. The response of the sea-ice cover and permafrost layer to global warming varies considerably among models and thus large differences are observed in the projected regional increase in temperature and precipitation. In view of the important feedbacks that a retreat of the sea-ice cover and the distribution of permafrost are likely to play in the doubled and tripled CO2 climates of Hudson Bay, a good representation of these two parameters is necessary to provide realistic climate change scenarios. The use of higher resolution regional climate model is recommended to develop scenarios of climate change for the Hudson Bay region. 相似文献
3.
The magnitude and even direction of recent Antarctic climate change is still debated because the paucity of long and complete
instrumental data records. While along Antarctic Peninsula a strong warming coupled with large retreat of glaciers occurred,
in continental Antarctica a cooling was recently detected. Here, the first existing permafrost data set longer than 10 years
recorded in continental Antarctica is presented. Since 1997 summer ground surface temperature showed a strong warming trend
(0.31°C per year) although the air temperature was almost stable. The summer ground surface temperature increase seemed to
be influenced mainly by the increase of the total summer radiation as confirmed also by the increase of the summer thawing
degree days. In the same period the active layer exhibited a thickening trend (1 cm per year) comparable with the thickening
rates observed in several Arctic locations where air warming occurred. At all the investigated depths permafrost exhibited
an increase of mean annual temperature of approximately 0.1°C per year. The dichotomy between active layer thickness and air
temperature trends can produce large unexepected and unmodelled impacts on ecosystems and CO2 balance. 相似文献
4.
Impact of recent climate change on the hydrology of coastal Mediterranean rivers in Southern France 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
The purpose of this paper is to analyse the regional impact of recent climate change on the water resources in southern France. We produced spatial reconstructions of the monthly evolutions of temperature, precipitation and water discharge in 15 watersheds of six coastal river basins and examined the major changes based on trend analysis for the last 40 years. In this part of the Mediterranean, the general warming trend was strongly enhanced by changes in the atmospheric circulation patterns, characterized by a northward extension of the subtropical high pressure domain during spring and summer. During these seasons, monthly warming rates could achieve almost twice the mean annual warming rates. Although annual precipitation did not follow clear trends, water discharge significantly decreased in one third of the watersheds and accounted for an estimated 20% reduction of the water resources in this region. This concerns both the highest and lowest watersheds. In the former, the reduction is likely the result of a temperature induced switch of snowfall to rainfall at high altitudes. In the latter, the reduction of discharge seems to come from lower groundwater levels, which may be related to the temperature increase too, but also have other origins. The recent climatic evolution is consistent with most modelling simulations for the future, indicating that the reduction of the water resources will hold on, probably still enhanced by decreases in precipitation. 相似文献
5.
Active layer plays a key role in regulating the dynamics of hydrothermal processes and ecosystems that are sensitive to the changing climate in permafrost regions. However, little is known about the hydrothermal dynamics during freeze-thaw processes in permafrost regions with different vegetation types on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP). In the present study, the freezing and thawing processes at four sites (QT01, 03, 04, and 05) with different vegetation types on the QTP was analyzed. The results indicated that the impact on the soil water and heat during the summer thawing process was markedly greater than that during the autumn freezing process. Furthermore, the thermal-orbit regression slopes for all sites exhibited a homologous variation as the depth increased, with the slowest attenuation for the meadow sites (QT01 and QT03) and a slightly faster attenuation for the desert steppe site (QT05). The air and ground surface temperatures were similar in winter, but the ground surface temperature was significantly higher than the air temperature in summer in the radiation-rich environment at all sites on the QTP. The results also indicated that the n-factors were between 0.36 and 0.55 during the thawing season, and the annual mean temperature near the permafrost table was between − 1.26 and − 1.84 °C. In the alpine desert steppe region, the thermal conditions exhibited to show a warming trend, with a current permafrost table temperature of − 0.22 °C. The annual changing amplitude of the ground temperature at the permafrost table was different for different vegetation types. 相似文献
6.
7.
Permafrost Thaw Accelerates in Boreal Peatlands During Late-20th Century Climate Warming 总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7
Philip Camill 《Climatic change》2005,68(1-2):135-152
Permafrost covers 25% of the land surface in the northern hemisphere, where mean annual ground temperature is less than 0°C. A 1.4–5.8 °C warming by 2100 will likely change the sign of mean annual air and ground temperatures over much of the zones of sporadic and discontinuous permafrost in the northern hemisphere, causing widespread permafrost thaw. In this study, I examined rates of discontinuous permafrost thaw in the boreal peatlands of northern Manitoba, Canada, using a combination of tree-ring analyses to document thaw rates from 1941–1991 and direct measurements of permanent benchmarks established in 1995 and resurveyed in 2002. I used instrumented records of mean annual and seasonal air temperatures, mean winter snow depth, and duration of continuous snow pack from climate stations across northern Manitoba to analyze temporal and spatial trends in these variables and their potential impacts on thaw. Permafrost thaw in central Canadian peatlands has accelerated significantly since 1950, concurrent with a significant, late-20th-century average climate warming of +1.32 °C in this region. There were strong seasonal differences in warming in northern Manitoba, with highest rates of warming during winter (+1.39 °C to +1.66 °C) and spring (+0.56 °C to +0.78 °C) at southern climate stations where permafrost thaw was most rapid. Projecting current warming trends to year 2100, I show that trends for north-central Canada are in good agreement with general circulation models, which suggest a 4–8 °C warming at high latitudes. This magnitude of warming will begin to eliminate most of the present range of sporadic and discontinuous permafrost in central Canada by 2100. 相似文献
8.
本文使用1978—2013年美国大气海洋局NOAA研发的STAR V3.0版本的MSU/AMSUA逐月亮温格点数据,引入集合经验模式分解(EEMD)方法,研究了高空大气亮温的非线性变化趋势,尤其注重亮温气候趋势的时间演变特征,并与传统线性回归(CLR)方法做了对比研究。结果表明,在全球对流层增温、平流层降温的大背景下,基于EEMD的亮温非线性趋势演变特征表现为:近10 a对流层中、高层全球平均增暖趋势放缓,甚至出现轻微的降温趋势;北半球对流层增暖首先出现在北极,随后向低纬度方向延伸。北极对流层增暖向上影响高层大气,最高可以扩展到平流层低层。南半球对流层中低纬度地区受北半球大气影响也出现增温。另外,近10 a南极地区出现显著的独立增温现象。平流层变冷北半球最早从中纬度地区开始发生,变冷逐渐增强的同时向极地和低纬度两侧扩张。南极上空平流层大气早期也出现显著变冷,然而随着2000年以后南极大范围增暖,平流层变冷逐渐转移到中低纬地区。 相似文献
9.
赤峰地区近50a气候变化诊断分析 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
利用线性回归、累积距平和多项式回归法,对赤峰地区1951—1990年12个气象台站的月、季、年平均气温、最高气温、最低气温序列进行连续性变化趋势分析,确定该区域的气候变化趋势。应用Mann-Kendall法和滑动t检验法检验气温序列变化的不连续性,确定突变时间。结果表明:赤峰地区12个月的平均气温均有升温趋势,增温幅度从0.56℃/10a到0.15℃/10a,其中2月份最强。季节增温最显著的是冬季,其次是秋季和春季,夏季最弱。年平均气温增温率是0.28℃/10a,1988年是变暖的第一年,突变时间在1993年;年平均最低气温增温率是0.29℃/10a,1988年是变暖的第一年,突变时间在1988年;年平均最高气温增温率是0.26℃/10a,1993年是变暖的第一年,突变时间在1993—1996年附近;平均最低气温和最高气温的变暖时间具有不对称性。 相似文献
10.
11.
利用1961—2004年我国西南地区322个站的气温观测资料, 分析了乡村站、小城市站、大中城市站和国家基准/基本站气温变化趋势特点, 着重研究了城市化对城镇站和国家站地面气温记录的影响程度和相对贡献比例。结果显示:区域平均的各类台站年平均气温呈现不同程度的上升趋势, 城市站、国家站的增温速率均高于乡村站。大中城市站和国家站的年平均热岛增温率分别为0.086 ℃/ 10a和0.052 ℃/10a, 其增温贡献率分别达57.6%和45.3%。与大多数地区不同, 西南地区的增温速率明显偏小。因此, 尽管平均热岛强度变化比许多地区弱, 但其相对贡献明显, 表明城市化对该区域气温趋势的绝对影响较弱, 但相对影响较强。另外, 城市热岛增温有明显的季节变化, 表现为秋季最强, 春季或冬季次之, 夏季最弱。热岛增温贡献率则为春季最大 (100%), 夏季次之 (73%以上), 秋季和冬季相对较小。这主要是因为春、夏两季背景气候变凉或趋势微弱, 热岛增温在实际增温中占有更高的比例。 相似文献
12.
对1906—2005年丹东气温资料序列进行分析,得到近百年丹东气温变化特征。结果表明:在近百年丹东逐月平均气温变化趋势中,除夏季7月和8月呈线性递减趋势外,其他月份均呈线性递增趋势。在近百年丹东年代际和年际变化中,逐年代平均气温线性递增率为1.13℃/100 a,逐年演变过程中的年平均递增率为0.12℃/10 a。在各季的平均气温变化中,冬季(12月—翌年2月)线性增温最显著,平均线性递增率为0.30℃/10 a;春季(3—5月)次之,线性增长率均为0.12℃/10 a;秋季(9—11月)平均气温线性增温最小,线性增长率为0.06℃/10 a;夏季除6月几乎没有变化外,7—8月均呈递减趋势,整个夏季(6—8月)总线性增减率为0.03℃/10 a。近20 a年线性增暖趋势异常显著,逐年线性递增趋势为0.36℃/10 a。 相似文献
13.
根据1979—2010年珠江三角洲24个气象站的气温观测数据以及NCEP/NCAR R1地表气温再分析月资料,运用OMR（observation minus reanalysis）方法分析了珠三角地区平均气温、平均最高气温、平均最低气温的年、季变化趋势。研究结果表明,过去32年珠三角大部分地区呈增温趋势,年平均气温、年平均最高气温、年平均最低气温的OMR趋势分别为0.22/10a、0.19℃/10a、0.23℃/10a,对珠三角地区观测气温增暖的贡献率分别为55.7%、41.7%、57.2%;四季OMR增温趋势冬季最大,夏秋季较小。城市化对区域平均最低气温的影响比对平均最高气温的影响更大。 相似文献
14.
为明确近60 a来在近对流层自由大气底部这一特定高度上河南省中岳嵩山气温变化特征,在对河南省登封气象站月平均气温数据均一化的基础上,采用该站均一化数据构建嵩山站月平均气温模拟模型,对1990—2002年缺测数据插补,建立中岳嵩山高山国家基准气候站1956—2017年时间序列连续的月平均气温资料,采用线性回归对其进行气温变化趋势分析。结果表明：均一化处理对登封站月平均气温因台站迁移的非自然因素引起的非均一性取得了明显的校正效果。均一化后,1969—2017年登封站年平均气温由显著上升速率0.218℃/10 a增至0.310℃/10 a。利用独立数据对模型进行验证表明,总体上,嵩山站各月平均气温推算模型模拟值与实测值的线性相关系数和斜率分别为0.999和0.989(n=204,P < 0.01);1—12月各月模型验证检验参数的平均值相关系数为0.958、均方根误差为11.7%、平均绝对偏差为0.3℃、平均偏差为0.1℃、拟合指数为0.973、模拟效率为0.900,模型具有较好的模拟效果。1956—2017年嵩山站年平均气温增温显著,其速率为0.223℃/10 a。四季之间,以春季增温速率最大,为0.350℃/10 a;冬季和秋季次之;夏季增温不显著。各月之间,以2月增温速率最大,达0.445℃/10 a。 相似文献
15.
The effects of past climate change on the northern limits of maize planting in Northeast China 总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8
Northeast China (NEC) is one of the major agricultural production areas in China and also an obvious region of climate warming. We were motivated to investigate the impacts of climate warming on the northern limits of maize planting. Additionally, we wanted to assess how spatial shifts in the cropping system impact the maize yields in NEC. To understand these impacts, we used the daily average air temperature data in 72 weather stations and regional experiment yield data from Jilin Province. Averaged across NEC, the annual air temperature increased by 0.38 °C per decade. The annual accumulated temperature above 10 °C (AAT10) followed a similar trend, increased 66 °C d per decade from 1961 to 2007, which caused a northward expansion of the northern limits of maize. The warming enabled early-maturing maize hybrids to be sown in the northern areas of Heilongjiang Province where it was not suitable for growing maize before the warming. In the southern areas of Heilongjiang Province and the eastern areas of Jilin Province, the early-maturing maize hybrids could be replaced by the middle-maturing hybrids with a longer growing season. The maize in the northern areas of Liaoning Province was expected to change from middle-maturing to late-maturing hybrids. Changing the hybrids led to increase the maize yield. When the early-maturing hybrids were replaced by middle-maturing hybrids in Jilin Province, the maize yields would increase by 9.8 %. Similarly, maize yields would increase by 7.1 % when the middle-maturing hybrids were replaced by late-maturing hybrids. 相似文献
16.
为了研究中国不同区域气候变化特征,将全国按照气候区域划分为11个气候区,并利用1951—2009年中国194个国家基本/基准站月、年气温和降水观测资料,对全国及每个气候区平均温度及降水量的年和季节变化特征进行分析。结果表明：中国及各地区增温趋势均为极显著增加,尤其近20 a增温速度更快;而2007年成为有记录以来最暖的一年;中国冬季平均温度上升趋势最明显,春季次之,夏季几乎没有变化。中国平均年总降水量20世纪50年代最多,2000年代最少;而华北地区的年降水量减少最快;在四季降水中,中国只有夏季降水量波动略有增加,且各区域降水分布具有明显的南北差异特征。 相似文献
17.
内蒙古地区气温异常变化特征及可能影响分析 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
基于内蒙古地区52个站点1961-2005年的逐月气温资料,利用趋势变化、累积距平统计、气温异常指标等方法,分析了内蒙古东冲、西部气温平均状态和异常波动特征。结果表明：1．内蒙古地区气温增暖特征显著,其增暖幅度高于全国平均水平．并且不同区域响应程度不同,内蒙古中西部地区大于东部地区。尤其在1986年发生气温突变以后,增温速率加快。2．目前年平均气温处于高气候平均态和高气候变率时期,致使20世纪90年代之后,异常暖年和极端暖年事件呈增加趋势。3．高温日数逐年增加和寒冷日数逐年的急剧减少,以及异常冷年出现在90年代之前和异常暖年发生在90年代之后等特征,进一步说明内蒙古地区气候变暖的事实。4．内蒙古地区极端气温事件出现频率较高．并在近20年主要以异常暖和极端暖事件为主。 相似文献
18.
With the surface air temperature (SAT) data at 37 stations on Central Yunnan Plateau (CYP) for 1961–2010 and the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program/Operational Linescan System (DMSP/OLS) nighttime light data, the temporal-spatial patterns of the SAT trends are detected using Sen’s Nonparametric Estimator of Slope approach and MK test, and the impact of urbanization on surface warming is analyzed by comparing the differences between the air temperature change trends of urban stations and their corresponding rural stations. Results indicated that annual mean air temperature showed a significant warming trend, which is equivalent to a rate of 0.17 °C/decade during the past 50 years. Seasonal mean air temperature presents a rising trend, and the trend was more significant in winter (0.31 °C/decade) than in other seasons. Annual/seasonal mean air temperature tends to increase in most areas, and higher warming trend appeared in urban areas, notably in Kunming city. The regional mean air temperature series was significantly impacted by urban warming, and the urbanization-induced warming contributed to approximately 32.3–62.9 % of the total regional warming during the past 50 years. Meantime, the urbanization-induced warming trend in winter and spring was more significant than that in summer and autumn. Since 1985, the urban heat island (UHI) intensity has gradually increased. And the urban temperatures always rise faster than rural temperatures on the CYP. 相似文献
19.
A set of homogenized monthly mean surface air temperature(SAT) series at 32 stations in China back to the 19 th century had previously been developed based on the RHtest method by Cao et al.,but some inhomogeneities remained in the dataset.The present study produces a further-adjusted and updated dataset based on the Multiple Analysis of Series for Homogenization(MASH) method.The MASH procedure detects 33 monthly temperature records as erroneous outliers and152 meaningful break points in the monthly SAT series since 1924 at 28 stations.The inhomogeneous parts are then adjusted relative to the latest homogeneous part of the series.The new data show significant warming trends during 1924–2016 at all the stations,ranging from 0.48 to 3.57?C(100 yr)~(-1),with a regional mean trend of 1.65?C(100 yr)~(-1);whereas,the previous results ranged from a slight cooling at two stations to considerable warming,up to 4.5?C(100 yr)~(-1).It is suggested that the further-adjusted data are a better representation of the large-scale pattern of climate change in the region for the past century. 相似文献
20.
利用1960-2010年华北、东北地区165个气象站日平均气温资料,运用线性倾向估计等方法,对近51 a来≥0 ℃和≥10 ℃积温及其持续天数和起止日期的时、空分布特征进行分析,以了解气候变暖对华北、东北地区热量资源分布的影响。结果表明：近51 a来华北、东北地区气温增暖趋势明显,气候倾向率达0.32 ℃/10 a（P<0.001）,且与各项热量资源指标相关显著。随着气候变暖,≥0 ℃和≥10 ℃积温及持续天数普遍显著增加,其气候倾向率分别在（30 ℃·d）/10 a和2 d/10 a以上;2000年以后亚热带北界和暖温带北界在华北、东北地区均出现了北移,以亚热带北界移动幅度更大;20世纪90年代以后,一年两熟制种植北界在山西和辽宁两省明显北抬,平均移动幅度超过1.5个纬距。华北、东北地区≥0 ℃和≥10 ℃积温及持续天数普遍增加是受起始日期提前和终止日期延后共同影响,≥0 ℃前者比后者的影响更明显,≥10 ℃两者作用相当。 相似文献