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针对东海冲绳海槽地区的地震地质背景,对东海海域潜在的地震海啸进行了预研究. 假设了冲绳海槽在发生8.5级大地震,断层错距高达15 m的极端地震情况引发的海啸对中国东部沿海地区的影响. 初步数值模拟结果表明,该地震引发的海啸的最大初始波高为4.3 m,4小时左右传至浙江沿岸,近岸各处波高为1——2 m,其中局部地区波高为2.4 m;约7——8小时靠近上海海岸线（若震源在中冲绳海槽地区,海啸传到上海最快大约7小时）,近岸波高约为1 m. 近岸区域地形变化复杂,海岛密布,局部地形条件可能会很大地影响实际各地点海啸波高,加上海啸在岸边爬高及港湾效应,估计波高还会升高. 给出了冲绳海槽南、中、北部发生潜在地震海啸的传播等时图. 笔者在东海设置了3个地震及海啸监测站,基于海啸模拟结果绘制了监测站处的海啸随时间演化曲线,分析了预研究成果对海啸预警可能发挥的作用. 相似文献
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根据构造相似条件分析,琉球海沟与日本海沟、智利海沟、印尼巽他海沟一样具备发生9级罕遇超巨大地震的可能。在对近几年来全球发生的超巨大地震参数及构造对比分析的基础上,设定琉球海沟9.0级地震参数,并将其引发的海啸进行数值模拟研究。结果表明,该地震可引发初始波高为8m的海啸,台湾东北部半小时后遭受10m以上海啸,3~4小时左右传至浙南、闽北沿岸,近岸各处波高在1~2m;5小时左右传至浙北、粤北沿岸,浙江近岸各处波高在2m左右,广东沿海、台湾海峡由于台湾岛的正面阻挡,海啸波高低于50cm;8小时后靠近上海海岸线,最大波高约1m。海啸的上岸高度与海岸附近的海深和海岸线的形态密切相关,我国东南海域地形变化复杂、海湾众多,对海啸波有放大作用,模拟结果可能比实际海啸偏小。我国沿海地区分布着不少已建和在建的核电厂,在核电设计时未考虑海啸,一旦发生这种罕遇地震海啸则影响不可忽视,尤其是若与风暴潮、天文大潮叠加则可能出现严重后果。由于核电安全要求万无一失,故须制订有效预警和应对措施。 相似文献
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采用球坐标系下非线性浅水波方程, 研究日本本州M9.0大地震引发的海啸对中国东南沿海的影响, 并计算了冲绳海槽构造带上3个不同段落可能发生潜在地震引发的海啸, 分析这些海啸与日本大海啸的浪高和走时关系. 结果表明, 日本地震海啸模拟结果与日本当地报道及中国东南沿海7个验潮站的报道结果相符. 冲绳海槽构造带中段可能发生的3次不同震级（M7.0, M7.5, M8.0）潜在地震引发的海啸到达中国东南沿海的时间比日本海啸提前约4个小时, 从震源区传播3个多小时即可到达华东沿海部分验潮站. 冲绳海槽M7.5潜在地震海啸在验潮站上计算的波高与日本海啸相当, 中冲绳海槽M8.0潜在地震海啸在大陈站的波高将超过0.9 m, 在坎门站波高将超过1.8 m. 北冲绳海槽的潜在地震海啸威胁主要集中在江苏盐城、 上海一带, 南冲绳海啸主要对台湾东北部和浙江沿海产生威胁. 本文对冲绳海槽构造带上潜在地震引发海啸的模拟结果, 可为中国东南沿海地区的防震减灾、 海啸预警提供有意义的参考. 相似文献
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海啸在冲绳海槽和东海浅水大陆架地形上产生和传播的数值模拟 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
运用数值模拟的方法对在冲绳海槽产生9.0级地震,并引发海啸的过程和海啸波在东海浅水大陆架地形上的传播过程进行研究.模拟的结果表明,数值模拟产生的波浪符合海啸波的特点,东海浅水大陆架适合海啸波的传播. 相似文献
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一直以来,海啸波特征作为表征海啸潜在破坏性的参数指标得到了广泛应用,特别是针对近场极端海啸事件造成的灾害来说,这种表征具有较好的适用性.然而总结分析历史海啸事件造成的损失发现：在远场近岸及港湾系统中,海啸诱导的强流却是造成损失的主要原因.陆架或港湾振荡导致海啸波幅快速升降诱发强流,可能促使港工设施受到威胁及损害,进而对海啸预警服务及海事应急管理提出了新的挑战.因此,全面理解与评估海啸在港湾中诱发的灾害特征,探索港湾中海啸流的数值模拟方法,发展针对港湾尺度的海啸预警服务指导产品尤为迫切.受限于海啸流验证数据的缺乏及准确模拟海啸流技术方法的诸多不确定性,大部分海啸数值模拟研究工作主要是针对水位特征的研究及验证,可能导致对港湾中海啸灾害危险性认识的曲解与低估.本研究基于非线性浅水方程,针对夏威夷群岛三个典型港湾建立了精细化海啸数值模型（空间分辨率达到10 m）,并联合有限断层破裂模型计算分析了日本东北地震海啸在三个港湾及其邻近区域的海啸特征,波、流计算结果与实测结果吻合较好,精细化的海啸港湾模型模拟结果可信.模拟发现港湾中较小的波幅,同样可以产生强流.综合分析日本东北地震海啸波、流特征对输入条件不确定性的响应结果发现：港湾中海啸波-流能量的空间分布特征差异较大,这与港湾系统中海啸波的驻波特性相关;相比海啸波幅空间特征,海啸流特征具有更强的空间敏感性;海啸流时空分布特征对输入条件的不确定性响应比海啸波幅对这些不确定性的响应更强,海啸流的模拟与预报更有挑战性;不确定性对海啸流计算精度的影响会进一步传导放大港湾海啸流危险性的评估及对港工设施产生的应力作用的误差,合理的输入条件对海啸流的精确模拟至关重要.最后,希望通过本文的研究可以从海啸波-流特征角度更加全面认识近岸海啸灾害特征,拓展海啸预警服务的广度与深度,从而为灾害应急管理部门提供更加科学合理的辅助决策产品. 相似文献
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本文假设马尼拉海沟北段为潜在海啸源,基于中国地震台网对马尼拉海沟地区震级测定偏差,采用COMCOT(comell Multi-grid Coupled Tsunami Model)海啸数值模型,模拟南海海啸波传播.选取南海北缘3个特定地点,其中两个位于华南近海区域,另一个位于台湾岛南端近海区域,此外还在临近马尼拉海沟北段的深海地区选取了1个特定地点.分析这些特定地点最大海啸波以及最大海啸波到时对于震级测定偏差的敏感性.结果表明:马尼拉海沟北段地震如触发海啸,华南近海区域以及台湾岛南部近海区域最大海啸波振幅对震级偏差敏感,但最大海啸波振幅到时对于震级测定偏差不敏感;振幅最大的海啸波,二十几分钟即可波及台湾岛南端近岸区域,大约1小时后波及大陆华南近海北部区域. 相似文献
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快速准确的海啸源模型是近场海啸精确预警的关键.尽管目前还没有办法直接对其进行正演定量计算,但是可以通过多源地震、海啸观测数据进行反演或联合反演推算.不同的海啸源可能导致不同的预警结论,了解不同类型海啸源适用性、评估海啸源特征差异对近场海啸的影响,无论对于海啸预警还是海啸模拟研究尤为重要.本文评估分析了6种不同同震断层模型对2011年3月11日日本东北地震海啸近场数值预报的影响,重点对比分析了有限断层模型与均一滑动场模型对近场海啸产生、传播、淹没特征的影响及各自的误差.研究表明:近场海啸波能量分布主要取决于海啸源分布特征,特别是走向角的差异对海啸能量分布影响较大;有限断层模型对海啸灾害最为严重的39°N以南沿岸地区的最大海啸爬坡高度明显优于均一滑动场模型结果;综合对比DART浮标、GPS浮标及近岸潮位站共32个站次的海啸波幅序列结果发现有限断层模型整体平均绝对/相对误差比均一滑动场模型平均误差要低,其中Fujii海啸源的平均绝对/相对误差最小,分别是0.56m和26.71%.UCSB海啸源的平均绝对/相对误差次之.3个均一滑动场模型中USGSCMT海啸源模拟精度最高.相对于深海、浅海观测站,有限断层模型比均一滑动场模型对近岸观测站计算精度更高.海啸源误差具有显著的方向性,可能与反演所采用的波形数据的代表性有关;谱分析结果表明Fujii海啸源对在12至60min主频波谱的模拟要优于UCSB海啸源.海啸源中很难真实反映海底地震破裂过程,然而通过联合反演海啸波形数据推算海啸源的方法可以快速确定海啸源,并且最大限度的降低地震破裂过程与海啸产生的不确定性带来的误差. 相似文献
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Preliminary numerical simulation of potential earthquake-induced tsunami in East China Sea 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
In this paper,we present a numerical simulation of the propagation of a tsunami in the East China Sea,which might be induced by a hypothetical M8.5 earthquake in Okinawa Trough. Our results show that the initial maxi-mum wave height of tsunami could reach as high as 4.3 m for the hypothetical earthquake. It would take 3.5～4 hours for the tsunami to propagate to the coast of Zhejiang Province,and 7～8 hours to the near-shore of Shanghai. The peak tsunami height could be up to about 2 m in the coast of Zhejiang Province. Based on the numerical ex-periments,we plot the arrival time contours of tsunami in East China Sea and time history curves on the three ob-servational stations,and discussed the significance of the pre-analysis. 相似文献
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Tsunami induced by earthquake is an interaction problem between liquid and solid.Shallow-water wave equation is often used to modeling the tsunami,and the boundary or initial condition of the problem is determined by the displacement or velocity field from the earthquake under sea floor,usually no interaction between them is consid-ered in pure liquid model.In this study,the potential flow theory and the finite element method with the interaction between liquid and solid are employed to model the dynamic processes of the earthquake and tsunami.For model-ing the earthquake,firstly the initial stress field to generate the earthquake is set up,and then the occurrence of the earthquake is simulated by suddenly reducing the elastic material parameters inside the earthquake fault.It is dif-ferent from seismic dislocation theory in which the relative slip on the fault is specified in advance.The modeling results reveal that P,SP and the surface wave can be found at the sea surface besides the tsunami wave.The surface wave arrives at the distance of 600 km from the epicenter earlier than the tsunami 48 minutes,and its maximum amplitude is 0.55 m,which is 2 times as large as that of the sea floor.Tsunami warning information can be taken from the surface wave on the sea surface,which is much earlier than that obtained from the seismograph stations on land.The tsunami speed on the open sea with 3 km depth is 175.8 m/s,which is a little greater than that pre-dicted by long wave theory,(gh)1/2=171.5 m,and its wavelength and amplitude in average are 32 km and 2 m,respectively.After the tsunami propagates to the continental shelf,its speed and wavelength is reduced,but its amplitude become greater,especially,it can elevate up to 10 m and run 55 m forward in vertical and horizontal directions at sea shore,respectively.The maximum vertical accelerations at the epicenter on the sea surface and on the earthquake fault are 5.9 m/s2 and 16.5 m/s2,respectively,the later is 2.8 times the former,and therefore,sea water is a good shock 相似文献
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A conglomerate appears on a rocky coast called ??Tsubutega-ura Coast??, located on the southwestern coast near the southern tip of the Chita Peninsula, Aichi Prefecture, central Japan. The conglomerate belongs to Miocene sedimentary rocks termed the Morozaki Group. The conglomerate includes meter-scale boulders, indicating that it was formed by an extraordinary event. In the geological investigation, we observed that the conglomerate shows alternate changes of paleocurrent directions between seaward and landward. This feature is supposed to be formed by tsunami currents. In the hydrodynamical investigation, we obtained following results: (1) the lowest limit of a current velocity to move a boulder of about 3?m in diameter would be about 2?C3?m/s, (2) the speed of tsunami currents reproduced by tsunami simulation exceeds 3?m/s at 300?m in depth when the tsunami is generated by a gigantic earthquake with magnitude 9.0 or more, (3) the transport distance of the boulder would be several hundred?meters to several kilometers by one tsunami event caused by a gigantic earthquake. We conclude that tsunamis best explain the formation of the conglomerate deposited in upper bathyal environments about 200?C400?m depth, both from geological and hydrodynamical viewpoints. 相似文献
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L. Dengler B. Uslu A. Barberopoulou S. C. Yim A. Kelly 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2009,166(1-2):37-53
On November 15, 2006, Crescent City in Del Norte County, California was hit by a tsunami generated by a M w 8.3 earthquake in the central Kuril Islands. Strong currents that persisted over an eight-hour period damaged floating docks and several boats and caused an estimated $9.2 million in losses. Initial tsunami alert bulletins issued by the West Coast Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (WCATWC) in Palmer, Alaska were cancelled about three and a half hours after the earthquake, nearly five hours before the first surges reached Crescent City. The largest amplitude wave, 1.76-meter peak to trough, was the sixth cycle and arrived over two hours after the first wave. Strong currents estimated at over 10 knots, damaged or destroyed three docks and caused cracks in most of the remaining docks. As a result of the November 15 event, WCATWC changed the definition of Advisory from a region-wide alert bulletin meaning that a potential tsunami is 6 hours or further away to a localized alert that tsunami water heights may approach warning- level thresholds in specific, vulnerable locations like Crescent City. On January 13, 2007 a similar Kuril event occurred and hourly conferences between the warning center and regional weather forecasts were held with a considerable improvement in the flow of information to local coastal jurisdictions. The event highlighted the vulnerability of harbors from a relatively modest tsunami and underscored the need to improve public education regarding the duration of the tsunami hazards, improve dialog between tsunami warning centers and local jurisdictions, and better understand the currents produced by tsunamis in harbors. 相似文献
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F. I. González K. Satake E. F. Boss H. O. Mofjeld 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1995,144(3-4):409-426
The 25 April 1992 Cape Mendocino earthquake generated a tsunami characterized by both coastal trapped edge wave and non-trapped tsunami modes that propagated north and south along the U.S. West Coast. Both observed and synthetic time series at Crescent City and North Spit are consistent with the zero-order edge wave mode solution for a semi-infinite sloping beach depth profile. Wave amplitudes at Crescent City were about twice that observed at North Spit, in spite of the fact that the source region was three times farther from Crescent City than North Spit. The largest observed amplitude was due to an edge wave which arrived almost three hours after the initial onset of the tsunami; since such waves are highly localized nearshore, this suggests that the enhanced responsiveness at Crescent City is at least partly due to local dynamic processes. Furthermore, the substantially delayed arrival of this wave, which was generated at the southern end of the Cascadia Subduction Zone, has significant implications for hazard mitigation efforts along the entire U.S. West Coast. Specifically, this study demonstrates that slow-moving but very energetic edge wave modes could be generated by future large tsunamigenic earthquakes in the CSZ, and that these might arrive unexpectedly at coastal communities several hours after the initial tsunami waves have subsided. 相似文献