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地震前的区域重力场变化信号是判断年度地震危险性的依据之一.本文基于陆地时变重力观测获得的中国大陆西部重力场变化结果,采用Molchan检验方法对2018—2021年间中国大陆西部的12次5级以上地震前的重力场变化预报效能进行评价.研究结果表明：现有陆地时变重力测量得到的3年尺度重力变化结果,对于未来1年的5级以上地震风险具有独立的预报效能,明显高于泊松概率;时变重力水平总梯度作为定量表征重力场空间变化特征的指标,Moclchan检验结果显示其预报效能优于时变重力信号;发生在南北地震带的2019年张掖5.0级地震,夏河5.7级地震和2020年巧家5.0级地震Molchan检验的效果更好,这可能与南北地震带地区重力测网覆盖程度更好有关.本文研究结果客观和定量地评估时变重力场的预报能力具有重要意义,也可以为优化地震预测指标体系的建立提供一定的参考. 相似文献
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本文基于中国大陆西部流动重力测量获得的区域重力场变化数据, 尝试对其进行多种位场变换, 在一定空间尺度约束下定义了6种区域重力场变化指标量. 在此基础上, 以中国大陆2002年、 2005年和2008年等3期数据为研究对象, 计算并统计了中国大陆西部MS≥6.0地震震中位置处震前重力场变化及各种导出参数值, 尝试初步构建以地震预报为目的的地震重力学科指标体系参数. 研究结果表明, 震前区域重力场变化与地震发生位置没有显著的统计关系, 但是重力场变化的垂直梯度和解析信号模量具有一定的地震预报意义, 适合作为地震前兆异常使用. 相似文献
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自2002年以来,GRACE卫星探测计划可提供高精度的时变地球重力场,用以探测地球系统的物质分布.自1998年中国大陆重力监测网建立以来,利用FG5绝对重力仪和LCR-G型相对重力仪每2年对该网进行重复测量获取重力场时变信息.基于此,本文利用GRACE和地面重力测量获得了中国大陆重力场的长期年变率,利用位错理论根据USGS发布的断层模型计算了2008年汶川Ms8.0级地震的同震重力变化并进行了300 km高斯滤波.GRACE卫星重力和地面重力结果均表明华北地区地下水流失严重,在绝对重力基准站上,GRACE卫星重力与绝对重力变化率较为一致,汶川区域的地面重力变化结果可视为大地震前兆信息. 相似文献
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在四川盆地西部建立了一个由302个观测站组成的区域观测网,并进行了高精度流动重力与GPS观测,其目的是获取区域自由空气重力异常(简称重力异常)的分布特征,并对EGM2008模型在该区域的结果进行验证分析.研究区域实测的重力异常总体为负值,由西到东逐步从-160×10-5ms-2平缓变化到-60×10-5ms-2左右.EGM2008地球重力场模型揭示的模型重力异常较好地勾画出研究区域的总体地形分布形态,龙泉山脉以及四川盆地与青藏高原的边界皆存在明显的模型重力梯度带.研究区东南部的模型重力异常大约为-50×10-5ms-2左右,但在龙泉山西部成都平原地区,模型重力异常则达到-120×10-5ms-2左右.在区域观测网内绝大部分观测点上,模型与实测重力异常的差值几乎为一个常数(-10×10-5ms-2左右),说明EGM2008地球重力场模型可较好地反映实际重力场的空间分布形态.如果配以一定数量的地面观测数据进行整体调节,EGM2008地球重力场模型就可以较真实地反映实际地球重力场. 相似文献
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利用国家重大科学工程"中国地壳运动观测网络"1998—2008年绝对重力和相对重力的观测资料,获得了南北地震带地区的重力场及其动态变化,从动态的观点研究了2008年5月12日汶川8.0级地震前后区域重力场演化特征及其与地震活动的关系.重力场变化既具有时-空分布的不均匀性,同时又具有与活动断裂构造密切相关和与地震孕育发展有着内在联系.重力场动态变化图象较清晰地反映了汶川大地震孕育、发生过程中出现的重力前兆信息. 相似文献
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利用南北地震带2014-2017年期间的流动重力观测资料,系统分析了区域重力场变化及其与2017年8月8日四川九寨沟7.0级地震发生的关系.结果表明：①区域重力场异常变化与北西西向塔藏断裂和南北向岷江断裂带在空间上关系密切,反映了沿控震断裂在2013-2017年期间发生了引起地表重力变化效应的地壳变形和构造活动.②九寨沟地震前,测区内出现了大空间范围的区域性重力异常,而震源区附近产生了局部重力异常,沿塔藏断裂带形成了重力变化高梯度带,其中,甘肃玛曲、迭部、青海河南蒙古族自治县、四川若尔盖、九寨沟一带重力差异变化达100×10-8m·s-2以上;这些可能反映九寨沟地震前,区域及震源区附近均产生与该地震孕育、发生有关的构造运动或应力增强作用.③九寨沟地震震中位于重力差异运动剧烈的鞍部等值线附近,与断裂走向基本一致的重力变化高梯度带零值线上,这一观测事实进一步佐证了重力场动态变化图像对强震地点预测具有重要的指示意义. 相似文献
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基于2015年以来南北地震带南段相对重力和绝对重力观测资料,系统分析了区域重力场动态变化及其与2021年5月21日漾濞MS6.4地震的关系.结果表明:(1)区域重力场变化与维西—乔后断裂关系密切,反映了2015—2021年期间该断裂活动引起了地表重力场变化;(2)与漾濞地震孕育有关的重力场经历了“弱变化—区域性异常—局部异常—四象限分布异常—大范围的正异常—反向变化发震”的演化过程;(3)重力场累积变化和差分变化图像均反映出漾濞震前两年出现显著的重力异常变化,地震发生在重力变化梯度带、四象限中心和零等值线拐弯附近;(4)重力场动态演化图像较好地反映了漾濞MS6.4地震孕育发生过程中出现的中期前兆现象,并基于该现象在漾濞MS6.4地震前作过一定程度的中期预测,尤其是强震地点判定. 相似文献
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利用川西地区2010-2012年期间的流动重力观测资料,系统分析了区域重力场变化及其与2013年4月20日四川芦山7.0级地震发生的关系.结果主要表明:①区域重力场异常变化与北东向龙门山断裂带南段和北北西向马尔康断裂带在空间上关系密切,反映沿该两断裂带(段)在2010-2012年期间发生了引起地表重力变化效应的构造活动或变形.②芦山7.0级地震前,测区内出现了较大空间范围的区域性重力异常,而震源区附近产生了局部重力异常,沿龙门山断裂带南段形成了重力变化高梯度带,其中,宝兴、天全、康定、泸定、石棉一带重力差异变化达100×10-8m·s-2以上;这些可能反映芦山地震前,区域及震源区附近均产生与该地震孕育、发生有关的构造运动或应力增强作用.③重力场差分动态演化图像和重力场累积变化动态图像均反映芦山7.0级地震孕育过程的最后2~3年出现较显著的流动重力异常变化,可视为该地震的中期前兆信息;本文第一作者等也曾基于该流动重力异常变化在芦山7.0级地震前做过一定程度的中期预测,尤其是地点预测.本文的例子再次证明流动重力观测能较好地捕捉到强震孕育发生过程中,特别是该过程最后阶段的重力异常变化信息.因此,区域流动重力场观测对未来强震的中-长期预测,尤其是在发震地点的判定上具有优势. 相似文献
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Earthquake precursors: spatial-temporal gravity changes before the great earthquakes in the Sichuan-Yunnan area 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Using multiple-scale mobile gravity data in the Sichuan-Yunnan area, we systematically analyzed the relationships between spatial-temporal gravity changes and the 2014 Ludian, Yunnan Province Ms6.5 earthquake and the 2014 Kangding Ms6.3, 2013 Lushan Ms7.0, and 2008 Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquakes in Sichuan Province. Our main results are as follows. (1) Before the occurrence of large earthquakes, gravity anomalies occur in a large area around the epicenters. The directions of gravity change gradient belts usually agree roughly with the directions of the main fault zones of the study area. Such gravity changes might reflect the increase of crustal stress, as well as the significant active tectonic movements and surface deformations along fault zones, during the period of gestation of great earthquakes. (2) Continuous significant changes of the multiple-scale gravity fields, as well as greater gravity changes with larger time scales, can be regarded as medium-range precursors of large earthquakes. The subsequent large earthquakes always occur in the area where the gravity changes greatly. (3) The spatial-temporal gravity changes are very useful in determining the epicenter of coming large earthquakes. The large gravity networks are useful to determine the general areas of coming large earthquakes. However, the local gravity networks with high spatial-temporal resolution are suitable for determining the location of epicenters. Therefore, denser gravity observation networks are necessary for better forecasts of the epicenters of large earthquakes. (4) Using gravity changes from mobile observation data, we made medium-range forecasts of the Kangding, Ludian, Lushan, and Wenchuan earthquakes, with especially successful forecasts of the location of their epicenters. Based on the above discussions, we emphasize that medium-/long-term potential for large earthquakes might exist nowadays in some areas with significant gravity anomalies in the study region. Thus, the monitoring should be strengthened. 相似文献
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在我国大陆开展的流动重力重复观测是监测地震前兆异常的主要技术手段之一。 对大地震前流动重力场观测资料研究结果表明, 区域性持续的重力场增加和减少与大地震发生有显著关系。 目前, 区域重力场变化监测已经成为一种常规前兆观测技术手段。 本文首先从三维倾斜台阶模型入手, 计算了理论重力异常, 并对异常进行变换, 找到了一种可以更好刻画其场源边界的方法, 并进一步应用空间相关系数法进行异常特征分析, 得到了从概率意义上估计危险区的方法。 最后, 本文尝试运用此方法对青藏高原东缘地区1998—2005年的四期流动重力测网资料进行处理和分析。 应用本文提出的异常处理技术, 可有效地圈定异常梯级带位置, 确定质源体边界形态, 并可以联合背景重力异常场等其他资料, 给出危险区发震概率的空间估计, 分析结果在年度震情会商中可以有效地对地震危险区的划定提供技术支持。 相似文献
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Based on previous research results, present-day crustal deformation and gravity fields in the Chinese mainland are analyzed using the GPS data, leveling, gravity and cross-fault deformations. We analyzed strain accumulation of the major faults, and identified locked or high strain accumulation segments. Combining the effects of large earthquakes in the study area, the long-term (decade) probability of large earthquakes in the Chinese mainland is estimated. 相似文献
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利用1963—2017年间中国大陆地区29次MS≥7.0地震和全球范围内42次MS≥8.0地震资料,根据地球自转速率季节性变化计算了它们的相位角,分析了它们的相位角分布,利用统计检验方法对它们与地球自转季节性变化之间的关系进行了检验。结果是:中国大陆地区MS≥7.0地震,约81%的地震发生在地球自转速度季节性变化加速初期和高值点附近-减速初期,在α=0.001显著性水平下通过显著性检验。全球范围发生的MS≥8.0地震,约68%的地震发生在地球自转速度季节性变化低值点附近,在α=0.001显著性水平下通过显著性检验。 相似文献
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南北地震带中段位于中国大腹部，是青藏块体、华北块体和扬子块体的中间枢纽部位。根据该区布格重力异常图，采用Ｐａｒｋｅｒ’ｓ三维位场方法进行莫氏面反演并计算该区不同窗口的剩余场推断和解释了条岩石圈断裂，进而研究它们与地震的关系。 相似文献
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本文给出了地震活动纤移速率ｂｃ值预测方法,利用该方法对１９７２年以来发生在中国大陆及邻区４７次Ｍ≥６级地震前区域地震活动进行了计算,其结果为：地城活动迁移率ｂｃ值在４７次大震前出现明显的低值异常。为了检验该方法是否具有实用性,文中对中国西部５个不同区域进行试算,得出在５个不同区域内发生的约３９次地震前,ｂｃ值表现不同程度的异常特点． 相似文献
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STUDY ON DYNAMIC CHANGE OF GRAVITY FIELD IN XIANSHUIHE FAULT ZONE AND THEIR RELATION TO THE OCCURRENCE OF MS ≥ 5.0 EARTHQUAKES 
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下载免费PDF全文 Xianshuihe Fault, a main strong earthquake activity belt in southwest China, begins from Ganzi in the northwest, passes through Luhuo, Daofu, and Kangding, and then extents along the Dadu River valley. The fault is divided into two parts at Shimian, one part turns to south and converses to Anninghe Fault extending further to south, the other part, continuing to extend to southeast, cutting through Xiaoxiangling and then changing to Daliangshan Faults in the north of the Yuexi Basin, has the length of about 400km. Since 1700AD, there have happened 22 earthquakes larger than magnitude 6.0 and 8 earthquakes larger than magnitude 7.0. In this paper, we systematically collated and computed the gravity repetition measurement data along the Xianshuihe fault zone since 1988, and by referring to the anomaly index of gravity field of the predecessor achievements, analyzed the spatial-temporal variation of the regional gravity field and the relation to the occurrence of ≥ MS5.0 earthquakes. The mechanism of the regional gravity changes is further studied, and also the implication of strong earthquake risk because of the dynamic variation of gravity field in the near future is discussed.The results show that:1)The mobile gravity observation has the ability to detect crustal activity and MS ≥ 5.0 earthquake events. 2)There is definite correspondence between interannual gravitational field change and the 8 earthquakes among the 13 MS ≥ 5.0 earthquakes occurring in the surveying area since 1988, which can be determined according to the change of interannual gravitational field. Three M ≥ 6.0 earthquakes occurred 3~4 years after the abnormal image was developed, 4 earthquakes that occurred in the region of no data available were not determined. 3)A significant feature of the spatial-temporal variation of the regional gravity is a north-south run-through image before 2004, and characterized by the alternatively positive or negative variation in different year, the earthquakes of MS ≥ 5.0 occurring in this period were not distributed along the fault. Gravity variation magnitude indicates that there were two similar crustal material movement waves before 2004, corresponding to the course of earthquake space-time distribution from strong to weak in the study area. After 2010, the variation image shows that the local positive and negative zones are concurrent within a year, different from the image before 2004, and earthquakes of MS ≥ 5.0 basically occurred on the fault. It is believed that the variation of gravity field since 1988 and the seismic distribution fit with the geodynamic mode of strong and weak stages of the northeast motion of Indian plate. According to the conclusion we can try to optimize gravity anomaly index. After the Kangding earthquake in 2014, the north segment of Moxi Fault was still subject to negative high value changes till 2017 and then the gravity variation was further developed to a four quadrant distribution image. Based on the analysis of this paper and the previous variation trend of gravity field, we believe that the north segment of Moxi Fault has the background of medium-long term, strong or large earthquake risk. 相似文献
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WEN Xiang ZHOU Bin SHI Shui-ping QIN Jian LI Jia-ning HE Yan YAN Chun-heng LUO Yuan-peng 《地震地质》2019,41(4):927-943
Northwest Guangxi is located in the Youjiang fold belt and the Hunan-Guangxi fold belt of secondary structure unit of South China fold system. The South China fold was miogeosyncline in the early Paleozoic, the Caledonian fold returned and transformed into the standard platform, and the Indosinian movement ended the Marine sedimentary history, which laid the basic structural framework of this area. Since the neotectonic period, large areas have been uplifted intermittently in the region and Quaternary denudation and planation planes and some faulted basins have been developed. Affected by the strong uplift of Yunnan-Guizhou plateau, the topography of the region subsides from northwest to southeast, with strong terrain cutting and deep valley incision. Paleozoic carbonate rocks and Mesozoic clastic rocks are mainly exposed on the earth's surface, and its geomorphology is dominated by corrosion and erosion landforms. The dating results show that most of the structures in northwest Guangxi are middle Pleistocene active faults, and the movement mode is mainly stick-slip. According to the seismogeological research results of the eastern part of the Chinese mainland, the active faults of the middle Pleistocene have the structural conditions for generating earthquakes of about magnitude 6. In the northwest Guangxi, the crustal dynamic environment and geological structure are closely related to Sichuan and Yunnan regions. Under the situation that magnitude 6 earthquakes occurred successively in Sichuan and Yunnan region and magnitude 7 earthquakes are poised to happen, the risk of moderately strong earthquakes in the northwest Guangxi region cannot be ignored. Based on the analysis of deep structure and geophysical field characteristics, it is concluded that the Tian'e-Nandan-Huanjiang area in the northwestern Guangxi is not only the area with strong variation of the Moho surface isobath, but also the ML3.0 seismic gap since September 2015, and the abnormal low b value area along the main fault. Regions with these deep structural features often have the conditions for moderately strong earthquakes. The paper systematically analyzes the spatial and temporal distribution features and mechanism of regional gravitational field and horizontal crust movement and further studies and discusses the changes of regional gravitational field, crustal horizontal deformation and interaction between geologic structure and seismic activity based on 2014-2018 mobile gravity measurements and 2015-2017 GPS observation data in the northwestern Guangxi. The results show that:1)On July 15, 2017, a MS4.0 earthquake in Nandan happened near the center of four quadrants of changes of gravity difference, and the center of abnormal area is located at the intersection of the Mulun-Donglang-Luolou Fault, the Hechi-Nandan Fault and the Hechi-Yizhou Fault. The dynamic graph of differential scale gravitational field reflects the gravity changes at the epicenter before and after the Nandan earthquake, which is a process of system evolution of "local gravity anomaly to abnormal four-quadrant distribution features → to earthquake occurring at the turning point of gravity gradient zone and the zero line to backward recovery variation after earthquake". Meanwhile, according to the interpretation of focal mechanism of the Nandan earthquake, seismogram and analysis of seismic survey results, the paper thinks that the four-quadrant distribution of positive and negative gravity, which is consistent with the effect of strike-slip type seismogenic fault before Nandan earthquake, demonstrates the existence of dextral strike-slip faulting; 2)The pattern of spatial distribution of gravitational field change in northwestern Guangxi is closely related to active fault. The isoline of cumulative gravity generally distributes along Nandan-Hechi Fault and Hechi-Yizhou Fault. The gravity on both sides of the fault zone is different greatly, and gradient zone has influences on a broad area; the spatial distribution of deformation field is generally featured by horizontal nonuniformity. Tian'e-Nandan-Huanjiang area is located at the high gradient zone of gravity changes and the horizontal deformation surface compressional transition zone, as well as near the intersection of Hechi-Yizhou Fault, Hechi-Nandan Fault and Du'an-Mashan Fault; 3)The geometric shape of gravitational field in northwestern Guangxi corresponds to the spatial distribution of horizontal crustal movement, which proves the exchange and dynamic action of material and energy in the region that cause the change and structural deformation of fault materials and the corresponding gravity change on earth's surface. The recent analysis of abnormal crustal deformation in northwestern Guangxi shows that Tian'e-Nandan-Huanjiang is a gradient zone of abnormal gravity change and also a horizontal deformation surface compressional transition zone. It locates at the section of significant change of Moho isobaths, the seismicity gap formed by ML3.0 earthquakes and the abnormal low b-value zone. According to comprehensive analysis, the region has the risk of moderately strong earthquake. 相似文献