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1.
Reduced sampling frequency is known to increase the error associated with estimates of stream solute load. However, the extent to which the magnitude of error differs among commonly measured solutes and across seasons is unclear. In this study, a high sampling frequency data set from two forested streams (one upland‐draining and one wetland‐draining stream) in south‐central Ontario was systematically sub‐sampled to simulate weekly, fortnightly and monthly fixed frequency sampling regimes for 12 stream solutes. We found that solutes which had a higher degree of temporal variation in concentration (i.e. higher %RSD) had poorer precision (Cv) in estimates of annual load relative to solutes with a lower %RSD. In addition, the magnitude and direction of bias varied considerably among solutes and were related to differences in spring concentration‐discharge relationships (m[spring Q vs C]) among the 12 solutes. Solutes which decreased in concentration with increases in spring flow (i.e. m[spring Q vs C] <0) exhibited positive bias in annual load while solutes which increased in concentration with increases in spring flow (i.e. m[spring Q vs C] >0) were negatively biased. In terms of differences between seasonal and annual load errors, precision was generally lower for estimates of seasonal load relative to annual load while bias varied in both magnitude and direction among seasons. When the root mean square error (RMSE) of load estimates was compared to a threshold of acceptable error (<15%), the proportion of solutes attaining acceptable levels of uncertainty ranged from 11/12 for annual load estimates at a weekly sampling frequency to only 4/12 at a monthly frequency when both annual and seasonal loads were considered. Our results demonstrate that commonly measured solutes do not behave uniformly in response to changes in sampling frequency and that estimates of seasonal loads are often less accurate than estimates of annual load. These findings provide important insights into the design of stream monitoring programs and the evaluation of existing long‐term data sets. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

2.
Most of the existing data on the effective particle size characteristics of fluvial suspended sediment derive from instantaneous sampling methods that may not be representative of the overall suspended sediment loads. This presents difficulties when there is a need to incorporate effective particle size data into numerical models of floodplain sedimentation and sediment‐associated contaminant transfer. We have used a field‐based water elutriation apparatus (WEA) to assemble a large (36 flood) database on the time‐integrated nature of the effective and absolute particle size characteristics of suspended sediment in four subcatchments of the River Exe basin of southwest England. These catchments encompass a wide range of terrains and fluvial environments that are broadly representative of much of the UK and temperate, low relief northwest Europe. The WEA provides important data on the physical characteristics of composite particles that are not attainable using other methods. This dataset has allowed, for the first time, detailed interbasin comparisons of the time‐integrated particle size characteristics of suspended sediment and reliable estimates of the contribution of five effective size classes to the mean annual suspended sediment load of the study catchments. The suspended sediment load of each river is dominated by composite rather than primary particles, with, for example, almost 60% (by mass) of the sediment load of the River Exe at Thorverton transported as composite particles > 16 µm in size. All the effective size classes contain significant clay components. A key outcome of this study is the recognition that each catchment has a distinctive time‐integrated effective particle size signature. In addition, the time‐integrated effective particle size characteristics of the suspended loads in each of the catchments display much greater spatial variability than the equivalent absolute particle size distributions. This indicates that the processes producing composite particles vary significantly between these catchments, and this has important implications for our understanding of the dynamics of suspended sediment properties. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

3.
This study examined water quality in the upper Animas River watershed, a mined watershed that gained notoriety following the 2015 Gold King mine release of acid mine drainage to downstream communities. Water-quality data were used to evaluate trends in metal concentrations and loads over a two-decade period. Selected sites included three sites on tributary streams and one main-stem site on the Animas River downstream from the tributary confluences. During the study period, metal concentrations and loads varied seasonally and annually because of hydrologic variability and remedial actions designed to ameliorate the effects of acid mine drainage. Water-quality data were divided into two periods based on the timing of remedial activities in the watershed. The first period includes active water treatment, surface reclamation and installation of bulkheads in adits; the second period includes the decade following these activities. Water-quality data were used to estimate annual and monthly zinc loads using the Adjusted Maximum Likelihood Method (using LOADEST software) and U.S. Geological Survey streamflow data. This study presents one of the first applications of LOADEST focused on metal loads. Monthly flow-weighted concentrations were analysed using a Mann-Kendall trend test to determine the direction, magnitude, and significance of temporal trends in zinc loading in any given month and using t-test comparisons between the two periods. Zinc loads estimated for the Animas River below the tributaries indicate decreased zinc loading during the rising limb of the hydrograph in the second period, perhaps reflecting a reduction of snowmelt-derived zinc load following surface reclamation activities. In contrast, base-flow zinc loading increased at the main-stem site, perhaps because of the cessation of water treatment in tributary streams. Flow weighting of monthly load estimates yielded increased statistical significance and enabled more nuanced differentiation between the effects of hydrologic variability and remedial activities on zinc loading.  相似文献   

4.
Monitoring large wood (LW: width > 10 cm, length > 1 m) in transport within rivers is a necessary next step in the development and refinement of wood budgets and is essential to a better understanding of basin‐wide controls and patterns of LW flux and loads. Monitoring LW transport with coarse interval (≥ 1 min) time‐lapse photography enables the deployment of monitoring cameras at large spatial and long temporal scales. Although less precise than continuous sampling with video, it allows investigators to answer broad questions about basin connectivity, compare drainages and years,and identify transport relationships and thresholds. This paper describes methods to: (i) construct fluvial wood flux curves; (ii) analyze the effects of sample interval lengths on transport estimates; and (iii) estimate total wood loads within a specified time period using coarse‐interval time‐lapse photography. Applying these methods to the Slave River, a large‐volume (103 m3 s‐1), low‐gradient (10? 2 m km? 1) river in the subarctic (60° N), yielded the following results. A threshold relationship for wood mobility was located around 4500 m3 s‐1. More wood is transported on the rising limb of the hydrograph because wood flux declines rapidly on the falling limb. Five‐ and ten‐minute sampling intervals provided unbiased equal variance estimates of 1 min sampling, whereas 15 min intervals were biased towards underestimation by 5–6%, possibly due to periodicity in wood flux. Total LW loads estimated from the 1 min dataset and adjusted for a 15% misdetection rate from 13 July to 13 August are: 1600 ± 200 # pieces, 600 ± 200 m3 and of the order of 1.3 × 105 kg carbon. The total wood load for the entire summer season is probably at least double this estimate because only the second half of the summer was monitored and a large early summer peak freshet was missed. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

5.
Storm events are major transporters of faecal microbial contaminants, but few studies have reported storm loads or concentration dynamics in relation to discharge or other pollutants, notably fine sediment. Episodically, high loads of faecal contamination during storm flows impact downstream uses of water bodies, particularly contact recreation and shellfish harvesting. We examined the storm dynamics of Escherichia coli, turbidity and discharge in the mixed land use Motueka catchment (2047 km2; 60% forest and 19% pasture) to gain insights into E. coli sources and transport. We also explored different approaches for calculating E. coli loads. Discharge and field turbidity were recorded continuously, and E. coli concentrations were sampled during events, over a 13‐month period near the mouth of the Motueka River. E. coli loads were estimated by interpolation, averaging estimators and by using linear regression with smearing correction of the log‐transformed variables: discharge, turbidity, and both turbidity and discharge. The annual E. coli load was dominated (～98%) by export during events. Comparison of monthly monitoring with the intensive storm monitoring campaign suggests that simple stratification of the sampling into storm and baseflow would greatly improve export estimates. E. coli peak concentrations always preceded discharge and turbidity peaks (which had similar timing). Turbidity can be a useful surrogate for faecal microbes in smaller catchments, but in the Motueka turbidity was no better for predicting E. coli concentration than discharge. Runoff from grazed pasture and direct deposition from livestock are probably the ultimate E. coli sources in the Motueka catchment. However, in‐channel stores seem to dominate E. coli dynamics during events and account for the typical feature of bacterial concentrations peaking ahead of discharge and turbidity. This study demonstrates the importance of storm events to faecal microbial loads and shows that E. coli concentration dynamics may contrast with those of turbidity. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

6.
The relationship between air (Ta) and water temperature (Tw) is very important because it shows how the temperature of a water body might respond to future changes in surface Ta. Mean monthly Tw records of three gauging stations (Bezdan, Bogojevo i Veliko Gradi?te) were analysed alongside mean monthly discharge (Q) for the same stations. Additionally, Ta series from two meteorological stations (Sombor and Veliko Gradi?te) were correlated with Tw variations over the period 1950–2012. Locally weighted scatter point smoothing (LOWESS) was used to investigate long‐term trends in the raw data, alongside the Mann–Kendall (MK) trend test. Trend significance was established using Yue–Pilon's pre‐whitening approaches to determine trends in climate data. Also, the rescaled adjusted partial sums (RAPS) method was used to detect dates of possible changes in the time series. Statistically significant warming trends were observed for annual and seasonal minimum and maximum Tw at all investigated sites. The strongest warming was observed at Bogojevo gauging station for seasonal maximum Tw, with +0.05 °C per year on average. RAPS established that the trend began in the 1980s. This behaviour is linked to climate patterns in the North and East Atlantic which determine the amount of heat advected onto mainland Europe. Statistically significant correlations were found for all Tw on an annual basis. Overall, the strongest correlations (p < 0.01) between Tw residuals and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) were recorded for the winter period. These findings suggest possible predictability of Tw over seasonal time‐scales. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

7.
This study aims to develop an improved time series model to overcome difficulties in modeling monthly short term stream flows. The periodic, serial dependent and independent components of the classical time series models are improved separately by information transfer from a surrounding long term gauging station to the considered flow section having short term records. Eventually, an improved model preserving the mathematical model structure of the classical time series model, while improving general and monthly statistics of the monthly stream flows, is derived by using the improved components instead of the short term model components in the time series modeling. The correlative relationships between the current short term and surrounding long term stations are used to improve periodic and serial dependent behaviors of monthly flows. Independent components (residuals) are improved via the parameters defining their theoretical probability distribution. The improved model approach is tested by using 50 year records of Göksu-Himmetli (1801) and Göksu-Gökdere (1805) flow monitoring stations located on the Ceyhan river basin, in south of Turkey. After 50 year records of the station 1801 are separated into five 10 year sub series, their improved and classical time series models are computed and compared with the real long-term (50 year) time series model of this station to reveal efficiencies of the improved models for each subseries (sub terms with 10 year observation). The comparisons are realized based on the model components, model estimates and general/monthly statistics of model estimates. Finally, some evaluations are made on the results compared to the regression method classically applied in the literature.  相似文献   

8.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(4):642-654
Abstract

Soil moisture estimates obtained over large spatial areas will become increasingly available through current and upcoming satellite missions and from numerous land surface parameterization schemes run at global- and continental-scale resolutions. The goal of this research was to evaluate the potential for using macroscale estimates of soil moisture for enhancing streamflow forecasts. Towards this research objective, monthly streamflow estimates were obtained from over 50 gauge locations within the Nelson basin, Canada, for the period 1979–1999. For each streamflow record, multiple linear regression models were used to remove components of the streamflow signal related to previous streamflow, climate teleconnections (e.g. ENSO and AO) and snow water equivalence. Correlations were then assessed between the macroscale soil moisture estimates and the residuals of the multiple linear regression analysis over lead times of one, two and three months. At the one- and two-month lead time, statistically significant relationships between soil moisture and the residuals of streamflow are observed over a large proportion of the gauging locations. The number of catchments with statistically significant relationships decreases significantly after two months and particularly in the months of April—June. This study demonstrates that available macroscale estimates of soil moisture have the potential to enhance streamflow prediction, although further study is suggested to improve upon the soil moisture estimates and their application in a forecast system.  相似文献   

9.
This paper proposes a simple class of threshold autoregressive model for purpose of forecasting daily maximum ozone concentrations in Southern California. Linear time series model has been widely considered in environmental modeling. However, this class of models fails to capture the nonlinearity in ozone process and the complexity of meteorological interactions with ozone. In this article, we used the threshold autoregressive models with two classes of regimes; periodic and meteorological regimes. Days in week were used for the periodic regimes and the regression tree method was used to define the regimes as a function of meteorological variables. As the reference model we used the autoregressive model with lagged ozone and various lagged meteorological variables as the covariates. The proposed models were applied to a 3-year dataset of daily maximum ozone concentrations obtained from five monitoring stations in San Bernardino County, CA and their forecast performances were evaluated using an independent year-long dataset from the same stations. The results showed that the threshold models well capture the nonlinearity in ozone process and remove the nonstationarity in model residuals. The threshold models outperformed the non-threshold autoregressive models in day-ahead forecasts. The tree-based model showed slightly better performance than the periodic threshold model.  相似文献   

10.
Recently amended European (EU) water policies call for an adequate monitoring of the chemical status of sediments and suspended matter (SM) in rivers. In this study, we focus on long‐term time series of particle‐bound hexachlorobenzene (HCB) and selected polychlorinated biphenyls (PCB‐138 and PCB‐153) that were monitored biweekly to monthly at eight stations in the River Rhine catchment. Our aims are (1) to detect trends in the concentration series HCB, PCB‐138 and PCB‐153, (2) to estimate the uncertainty of loads caused by SM collection techniques and load calculation procedures and (3) to detect trends in the subsequently calculated annual load series. HCB concentration in the SM for the period 1995–2008 significantly (p < 0·01) decreased at six of the eight monitoring stations. Decreasing PCB‐138 and PCB‐153 concentrations are significant at six of the eight and seven of the eight monitoring stations, respectively. A two‐way analysis of variance (ANOVA) that tested the effect of two collection techniques and four load calculation procedures on annual loads indicates homogeneity of the methods at four of the five monitoring stations. At Weil, only the loads of HCB, PCB‐138 and PCB‐153 are significantly affected by the collection technique. The trend analysis of an extended series (1985–2007) of annual HCB loads at Koblenz showed a significant decrease from about 110 kg year?1 to about 15–23 kg year?1; however, in the shorter period (1995–2007) only at two of the eight monitoring stations decreasing trends of annual contaminant load could be detected. We conclude that any of the tested load calculation procedures can be applied, as loads do no differ systematically. Although a high uncertainty in load estimation exists (e.g. maximum percentage error of E = [18·1, 122·5]% for HCB), the monitoring programme at the Rhine is adequate for analysing the long‐term chemical status of SM. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

11.
Arthur J. Horowitz 《水文研究》2003,17(17):3387-3409
In the absence of actual suspended sediment concentration (SSC) measurements, hydrologists have used sediment rating (sediment transport) curves to estimate (predict) SSCs for subsequent flux calculations. Various evaluations of the sediment rating‐curve method were made using data from long‐term, daily sediment‐measuring sites within large (>1 000 000 km2), medium (<1 000 000 to >1000 km2), and small (<1000 km2) river basins in the USA and Europe relative to the estimation of suspended sediment fluxes. The evaluations address such issues as the accuracy of flux estimations for various levels of temporal resolution as well as the impact of sampling frequency on the magnitude of flux estimation errors. The sediment rating‐curve method tends to underpredict high, and overpredict low SSCs. As such, the range of errors associated with concomitant flux estimates for relatively short time‐frames (e.g. daily, weekly) are likely to be substantially larger than those associated with longer time‐frames (e.g. quarterly, annually) because the over‐ and underpredictions do not have sufficient time to balance each other. Hence, when error limits must be kept under ±20%, temporal resolution probably should be limited to quarterly or greater. The evaluations indicate that over periods of 20 or more years, errors of <1% can be achieved using a single sediment rating curve based on data spanning the entire period. However, somewhat better estimates for the entire period, and markedly better annual estimates within the period, can be obtained if individual annual sediment rating curves are used instead. Relatively accurate (errors <±20%) annual suspended sediment fluxes can be obtained from hydrologically based monthly measurements/samples. For 5‐year periods or longer, similar results can be obtained from measurements/samples collected once every 2 months. In either case, hydrologically based sampling, as opposed to calendar‐based sampling is likely to limit the magnitude of flux estimation errors. Published in 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

12.
Nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations were measured and exports were calculated in the subtropical Richmond River catchment between July 1994 and June 1996. A stratified sampling approach was adopted owing to the extreme and rapid changes in riverine discharge, which varied by up to 10 000 times over the study period. Nutrient concentrations were lowest during baseflow. During storm discharge, dissolve inorganic and organic and particulate nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations increased two‐ to five fold, and followed hysteresis patterns that were attributed to the integration and/or depletion of catchment nutrient sources during an event. Dissolved organic nitrogen and particulate phosphorus were the dominant nutrient forms. Land use and antecedent conditions had a large influence on nutrient concentrations and exports. During the 1995–96 year (slightly above the mean annual discharge) 96% of nitrogen and 98% of phosphorus loads were transported in less than 6% of the time. When averaged across the catchment, monthly riverine nutrient loads varied by up to 1061‐fold during the study and exports were approximately four‐fold greater during the second year relative to the first. The subtropical Richmond River catchment has greater intra‐ and potential interannual variability in nutrient loads and exports when compared with temperate catchments from other parts of the world. It is suggested that in tropical and subtropical Australian catchments with large intra‐ and interannual variation in discharge, the need for parameterizing the antecedent conditions, such as the degree of nutrient storage, may make it difficult to model spatial and temporal (short time‐scale) nutrient exports. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

13.
入出湖总磷负荷变化是影响太湖湖体磷收支平衡的关键因素.基于2012-2018年水质水量监测资料,计算全湖及各水资源分区河流入出湖总磷负荷,并以水量加权计算其总磷年平均浓度,探明其时空变化规律;运用双累积曲线法分析不同分区水污关系的变化规律;以月为时间尺度,利用Pearson相关系数,揭示入湖总磷负荷分别与入湖水量、入湖...  相似文献   

14.
The River Frome was sampled at sub-daily sampling interval, with additional storm sampling, through an annual cycle. Samples were analysed for total phosphorus (TP), soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP), total oxidisable nitrogen (TON) and dissolved reactive silicon (Si). The resulting data set was artificially decimated to mimic sampling frequencies from 12 h to monthly time interval. Monthly sampling interval resulted in significant errors in the estimated annual TP and SRP load of up to 35% and 28% respectively, and the resulting data sets were insufficient to observe peaks in P concentration in response to storm events. Weekly sampling reduced the maximum percentage errors in annual load estimate to 15.4% and 6.5%. TON and silicon concentrations were less variable with changing river flow, and monthly sampling was sufficient to predict annual load estimates to within 10%. However, to investigate within-river nutrient dynamics and behaviour, it is suggested that a weekly sampling interval would be the minimum frequency required for TON and Si studies, and daily sampling would be a minimum requirement to adequately investigate phosphorus dynamics. The loss in nutrient-concentration signal due to reduced sampling interval is presented. Hysteresis in the nutrient concentration/flow relationships for all 32 storm events during the study period were modelled and seasonal patterns discussed to infer nutrient sources and behaviour. The high-resolution monitoring in this study identified, for the first time, major peaks in phosphorus concentration in winter that coincide with sudden falls in air temperature, and was associated with biofilm breakdown. This study has shown that to understand complex catchment nutrient processes, accurately quantify nutrient exports from catchments, and observe changes in water quality as a result of nutrient mitigation efforts over time, it is vital that the newly emerging field-based automated sampler/analyzer technologies begin to be deployed, to allow for routine high-resolution monitoring of our rivers in the future.  相似文献   

15.
Good estimates of pollutant fluxes are required for Earth systems sciences and water quality management. The gradual accumulation of water quality data records over the past few decades has increased the value of these data for examining long‐term trends. On many major rivers, however, infrequent sampling of most pollutants makes flux estimates and their analysis difficult. This paper explores the performance of different methods for estimating nutrient fluxes. The objective is to assess the accuracy (bias) and precision (dispersion) of annual nutrient fluxes based on monthly sampling, which is the frequency with which 80% of French water quality surveys have been carried out since 1971. The study is based on a data set of nutrient concentrations surveyed at high frequency during a 5 year pilot study (1981–85) at the Orléans station in the middle reaches of the River Loire, France. The mean specific fluxes were 641 (nitrate‐N), 96 (total‐P) and 37 kg year−1 km−2 (orthophosphate‐P). For each year, the data set was then ‘resampled’ by randomly simulating 12 sampling dates. 100 simulated monthly samplings were generated, upon which seven estimation methods were tested. The evaluations indicate that, when concentrations of specific substances in large rivers exhibit seasonal variation, a simple method based on linear interpolation between samples taken at approximately monthly intervals is advocated. With the monthly sampling interval, the precision (confidence level of 95%) of annual nutrient fluxes obtained by the appropriate methods was 13% for nitrates, 20% for total‐P, 26% for orthophosphates, and 34% for particulate‐P. The frequency of water quality surveys required to obtain an annual nutrient flux with 10% precision was around 15 days for nitrate, 10 days for orthophosphate‐P and total‐P, and about 5 days in the case of particulate‐P. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

16.
This work proposes two modelling frameworks for diagnosing temporal variations in nonlinear rating curves that describe suspended sediment–discharge relationships. A variant of the weighted regression on time, discharge, and season model is proposed and is compared against dynamic nonlinear modelling, a newly developed nonlinear time series filter based on sequential Monte Carlo sampling. Both approaches estimate a time series of rating curve parameters, with uncertainty, that can be used to diagnose variability in the sediment–discharge relationship over time. We evaluate the models with a variety of synthetic scenarios to highlight their ability to estimate signals of known rating curve change. Results reveal important bias‐variance trade‐offs unique to each approach, and in general, suggest that dynamic nonlinear modelling is better suited for rapid rating curve changes, whereas the weighted regression on time, discharge, and season variant more precisely estimates slow change. The techniques are then applied in two case studies in the Upper Hudson and Mohawk Rivers in New York. We conclude with a discussion of the implications of dynamic rating curves for the management of water quality in riverine and estuary systems.  相似文献   

17.
Two analyses, one based on multiple regression and the other using the Holt–Winters algorithm, for investigating non‐stationarity in environmental time series are presented. They are applied to monthly rainfall and average maximum temperature time series of lengths between 38 and 108 years, from six stations in the Murray Darling Basin and four cities in eastern Australia. The first analysis focuses on the residuals after fitting regression models which allow for seasonal variation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). The models provided evidence that rainfall is reduced during periods of negative SOI, and that the interaction between PDO and SOI pronounces this effect during periods of negative PDO. Following this, there was no evidence of any trend in either the PDO or SOI time series. The residuals from this regression were analysed with a cumulative sum (CUSUM) technique, and the statistical significance was assessed using a Monte Carlo method. The residuals were also analysed for volatility, autocorrelation, long‐range dependence and spatial correlation. For all ten rainfall and temperature time series, CUSUM plots of the residuals provided evidence of non‐stationarity for both temperature and rainfall, after removing seasonal effects and the effects of PDO and SOI. Rainfall was generally lower in the first half of the twentieth century and higher during the second half. However, it decreased again over the last 10 years. This pattern was highlighted with 5‐year moving average plots. The residuals for temperature showed a complementary pattern with increases in temperature corresponding to decreased rainfall. The second analysis decomposed the rainfall and temperature time series into random variation about an underlying level, trend and additive seasonal effects and changes in the level; trend and seasonal effects were tracked using a Holt–Winters algorithm. The results of this analysis were qualitatively similar to those of the regression analysis. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

18.
Accuracy and precision of methods for estimating river loads   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
River loads often have to be estimated from continuous discharge data but relatively infrequent sampling of sediment, solute, or pollutant concentrations. Two standard ways of doing this are to multiply mean concentration by mean discharge, and to use a rating curve to predict unmeasured concentrations. Both methods are known from previous empirical studies to underestimate true load. Statistical considerations explain these biases and yield correction factors which can be used to obtain unbiased estimates of load. Simulation experiments with normally-distributed scatter about log-linear trends, and sampling experiments using a natural data set, show that the corrected rating curve method has lower sampling variability than other unbiased methods based on average instantaneous load and is thus the recommended procedure when the rating plot is of the assumed form. The precision of all methods increases with sample size and decreases with increasing rating-curve slope and scatter.  相似文献   

19.
In this paper, we assess the performance of the catchment model SIMulated CATchment model (SIMCAT), to predict nitrate and soluble reactive phosphorus concentrations against four monitoring regimes with different spatial and temporal sampling frequencies. The Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) uncertainty framework is used, along with a general sensitivity analysis to understand relative parameter sensitivity. Improvements to model calibration are explored by introducing more detailed process representation using the Integrated Catchments model (INCA) water quality model, driven by the European hydrological predictions for the environment model. The results show how targeted sampling of headwater watercourses upstream of point discharges is essential for calibrating diffuse loads and can exert a strong influence on the whole‐catchment model performance. Further downstream, if the point discharges and loads are accurately represented, then the improvement in the catchment‐scale model performance is relatively small as more calibration points are added or frequency is increased. The higher‐order, dynamic model integrated catchments model of phosphorus dynamics, which incorporates sediment and biotic interaction, resulted in improved whole‐catchment performance over SIMCAT, although there are still large epistemic uncertainties from land‐phase export coefficients and runoff. However, the very large sampling errors in routine monitoring make it difficult to invest confidence in the modelling, especially because we know phosphorous transport to be very episodic and driven by high flow conditions for which there are few samples. The environmental modelling community seems to have been stuck in this position for some time, and whilst it is useful to use an uncertainty framework to highlight these issues, it has not widely been adopted, perhaps because there is no clear mechanism to allow uncertainties to influence investment decisions. This raises the question as to whether it might better place a cost on uncertainty and use this to drive more data collection or improved models, before making investment decisions concerning, for example, mitigation strategies. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

20.
Using high‐quality dataset from 12 flux towers in north China, the performance of four evapotranspiration (ET) models and the multi‐model ensemble approaches including the simple averaging (SA) and Bayesian model average (BMA) were systematically evaluated in this study. The four models were the single‐layer Penman–Monteith (P–M) model, the two‐layer Shuttleworthe–Wallace (S–W) model, the advection–aridity (A–A) model, and a modified Priestley–Taylor (PT‐JPL). Based on the mean value of Taylor skill (S) and the regression slope between measured and simulated ET values across all sites, the order of overall performance of the individual models from the best to the worst were: S–W (0.88, 0.87), PT‐JPL (0.80, 1.17), P–M (0.63, 1.73) and A–A (0.60, 1.68) [statistics stated as (Taylor skill, regression slope)]. Here, all models used the same values of parameters, LAI and fractional vegetation cover as well as the forcing meteorological data. Thus, the differences in model performance were mainly attributed to errors in model structure. To the ensemble approach, the BMA method has the advantage of generating more skillful and reliable predictions than the SA scheme. However, successful implementation of BMA requires accurate estimates of its parameters, and some degradation in performance were observed when the BMA parameters generated from the training period were used for the validation period. Thus, it is necessary to explore the seasonal variations of the BMA parameters according the different growth stages. Finally, the optimal conditional density function of half‐hourly ET approximated well by the double‐exponential distribution. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

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