共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 218 毫秒
1.
An unstable rock volume of more than 50 million m3 has been detected in the Åkerneset rock slope in the narrow fjord, Storfjorden, Møre & Romsdal County, Western Norway. If large portions of the volume are released as a whole, the rockslide will generate a tsunami that may be devastating to several settlements and numerous visiting tourists along the fjord. The threat is analysed by a multidisciplinary approach spanning from rock-slope stability via rockslide and wave mechanics to hazard zoning and risk assessment.The rockslide tsunami hazard and the tsunami early-warning system related to the two unstable rock slopes at Åkerneset and Hegguraksla in the complex fjord system are managed by Åknes/Tafjord Beredskap IKS (previously the Åknes/Tafjord project). The present paper focuses on the tsunami analyses performed for this company to better understand the effects of rockslide-generated tsunamis from Åkerneset and Hegguraksla. Two- and three-dimensional site-specific laboratory experiments are conducted to study the generation, propagation, and run-up of the wave for several potential rockslide scenarios from Åkerneset. Furthermore, the two models GloBouss and DpWaves are applied for numerical simulations of the generation/propagation phase and a third model MOST is applied for numerical simulations of the near-shore propagation and inundation of the wave in selected locations. Strong emphasis is put on verification, validation, and sensitivity of the numerical models. The best match between the numerical simulations and the laboratory experiments is found for the larger scenarios with the linear dispersive solution for the propagation phase; the corresponding calculated run-up values are remarkably similar to the ones observed during the laboratory experiments.During the risk assessment it was found that the rockslide tsunami hazard (probability of impact) is higher than accepted by the Norwegian Planning and Building Act. This should at that time prevent any further development in all the exposed areas of the entire fjord system. The Act is today altered to open for specified further development in the various hazard zones. The results of the tsunami analyses are applied in risk management in terms of hazard map production and land-use planning. Two failure scenarios for each of the two unstable rock slopes are designed for the hazard zoning. The larger and less probable scenarios (1 in 5000 years) are applied for evacuation zones and routes, while the smaller and more probable scenarios (larger than 1 in 1000 years) are applied for location and design of less critical facilities accepted in the inundation zone. 相似文献
2.
S. F. Dotsenko 《Physical Oceanography》2005,15(6):363-369
We perform the numerical analysis of the propagation of tsunamis in the Black Sea from the zones of seismic generation located
to the south of the Crimea and in the northwest part of the sea. It is shown that the tsunamis induced by earthquakes in the
Crimean seismic zone are entrapped by the nearest part of the shelf and do not result in noticeable oscillations of level
in the northwest part of the sea. This enables us to explain the absence of manifestations of tsunamis in 1927, 1939, and
1966 near Odessa. The tsunami waves generated by earthquakes in the northwest part of the sea are characterized by the directivity
of their propagation. The wave height is maximum in the areas corresponding to the north and east directions of propagation.
Hence, the north coast of the sea and the Kalamit Bay (Crimean Peninsula) are characterized by elevated tsunami hazard for
earthquakes occurring in the northwest part of the Black Sea.
__________
Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 6, pp. 46–53, November–December, 2005. 相似文献
3.
V. K. Gusiakov 《Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics》2014,50(5):435-444
We consider the problems of assessing tsunami danger for sea coasts taking into account the risk of the strongest tsunamis of seismic origin. We identify a class of particularly dangerous transoceanic events characterized by extremely high runups (up to 40–50 m) at extended coastal areas (up to 500–1000 km). In most cases these transoceanic tsunamis are caused by underwater mega-earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or more occurring with a period between 200–300 and 1000–1200 years in some areas of subduction zones. The possibility of these earthquakes in subduction zones directly threatening a given coast should be taken into account in creating maps of tsunami zoning of any scale. 相似文献
4.
基于数值模拟的渤海海域地震海啸危险性定量化研究 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
根据地震海啸产生的条件,结合渤海海域的地形特征、地质构造、地震学特征和历史地震及海啸记录对渤海海域潜在的地震海啸进行了数值模拟研究。分析了渤海可能引发地震海啸的震源区域,讨论了渤海发生海啸灾害的可能性。文中通过数值模拟再现了渤海历史上几次规模较大的地震事件可能引发的海啸情景,研究分析了可能的地震海啸在渤海及周边海域的传播过程及波动特征.地震海啸传播模型采用基于四叉树原理的自适应网格加密技术,有效解决了局部分辨率与计算效率之间的矛盾。数值计算包括地震海啸产生及传播过程。利用该模型对渤海潜在的地震海啸进行了数值计算,基于数值计算结果定量阐述了渤海海域潜在地震海啸对渤海局部岸段及北黄海沿岸的影响,给出了渤海可能地震海啸危险性划分;研究结果将为我国海啸危险性分析和海啸预警技术研究工作提供技术支持。 相似文献
5.
浙江沿海潜在区域地震海啸风险分析 总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1
采用COMCOT海啸模型建立三重网格模型模拟了2011年3月11日日本东北部9.0级地震引发的海啸发生、发展以及在我国东南沿海传播过程。震源附近浮标站以及浙江沿海的潮位站实测资料验证结果显示,大部分监测站首波到达时间和海啸波的计算值相差在15%以内,表明模型可较好的模拟海啸在计算域内的传播过程。研究表明日本南海海槽、冲绳海槽以及琉球海沟南部是影响浙江沿海主要的区域潜在震源,通过情景计算分别模拟3个潜在震源9.1级、8.0级和8.7级地震引发的海啸对浙江沿海的海啸风险,计算结果表明,海啸波产生后可在3~8h内传至浙江省沿岸,海啸波达1~3m,最大可达4m,此时浙江沿岸面临Ⅲ~Ⅳ级海啸风险,达到淹没至严重淹没等级。 相似文献
6.
Bathing beaches are usually the first to suffer disasters when tsunamis occur, owing to their proximity to the sea. Several large seismic fault zones are located off the coast of China. The impact of each tsunami scenario on Chinese bathing beaches is different. In this study, numerical models of the worst tsunami scenarios associated with seismic fault zones were considered to assess the tsunami hazard of bathing beaches in China. Numerical results show that tsunami waves from the Pacific Ocean could affect the East China Sea coast through gaps between the Ryukyu Islands. The Zhejiang and Shanghai coasts would be threatened by a tsunami from Ryukyu Trench, and the coasts of Hainan and Guangdong provinces would be threatened by a tsunami from the Manila Trench. The tsunami hazard associated with the Philippine Trench scenario needs particular attention. Owing to China’s offshore topography, the sequential order of tsunami arrival times to coastal provinces in several tsunami scenarios is almost the same. According to the tsunami hazard analysis results, Yalongwan Beach and eight other bathing beaches are at the highest hazard level. A high-resolution numerical calculation model was established to analyze the tsunami physical characteristics for the high-risk bathing beaches. To explore mitigating effects of a tsunami disaster, this study simulated tsunami propagation with the addition of seawalls. The experimental results show that the tsunami prevention seawalls constructed in an appropriate shallow water location have some effect on reducing tsunami hazard. Seawalls separated by a certain distance work even better. The analysis results can provide a scientific reference for subsequent preventive measures such as facility construction and evacuation. 相似文献
7.
The ∼8.15 ka Storegga submarine slide was a large (∼3000 km3), tsunamigenic slide off the coast of Norway. The resulting tsunami had run-up heights of around 10–20 m on the Norwegian coast, over 12 m in Shetland, 3–6 m on the Scottish mainland coast and reached as far as Greenland. Accurate numerical simulations of Storegga require high spatial resolution near the coasts, particularly near tsunami run-up observations, and also in the slide region. However, as the computational domain must span the whole of the Norwegian-Greenland sea, employing uniformly high spatial resolution is computationally prohibitive. To overcome this problem, we present a multiscale numerical model of the Storegga slide-generated tsunami where spatial resolution varies from 500 m to 50 km across the entire Norwegian-Greenland sea domain to optimally resolve the slide region, important coastlines and bathymetric changes. We compare results from our multiscale model to previous results using constant-resolution models and show that accounting for changes in bathymetry since 8.15 ka, neglected in previous numerical studies of the Storegga slide-tsunami, improves the agreement between the model and inferred run-up heights in specific locations, especially in the Shetlands, where maximum run-up height increased from 8 m (modern bathymetry) to 13 m (palaeobathymetry). By tracking the Storegga tsunami as far south as the southern North sea, we also found that wave heights were high enough to inundate Doggerland, an island in the southern North Sea prior to sea level rise over the last 8 ka. 相似文献
8.
We perform the numerical analysis of the process of propagation of long waves in the northwest part of the Black Sea and consider
ten possible zones of the seismic generation of tsunamis. The numerical analysis is performed on a grid with steps of 500 m.
It is shown that the location of the tsunami source significantly affects the distribution of the heights of waves along the
coast. As a rule, the most intense waves are formed in the closest part of the coast. The earthquakes in the South-Coast seismic
zone do not lead to the formation of tsunamis in the west part of the sea. Only strong earthquakes in the northwest part of
the sea can be responsible for noticeable oscillations of the Black-Sea level. The period of tsunamis near Odessa is close
to 1 h and depends on the magnitude of the earthquake. In the region of Sevastopol, this period is 2--3 times smaller. In
the major part of the coastal points, the extreme elevations and lowerings of the sea level do not exceed (in modulus) the
initial displacements of the sea surface at the source of tsunamis. An intensification of waves emitted from the zones of
generation located in the deeper part of the investigated region was observed for some parts of the Romanian coast and the
west coast of Crimea. As the magnitude of the earthquake increases, the intensification of waves near the coast becomes more
pronounced. 相似文献
9.
The Okinawa Trench in the East China Sea and the Manila Trench in the South China Sea are considered to be the regions with high risk of potential tsunamis induced by submarine earthquakes. Tsunami waves will impact the southeast coast of China if tsunamis occur in these areas. In this paper, the horizontal two-dimensional Boussinesq model is used to simulate tsunami generation, propagation, and runnp in a domain with complex geometrical boundaries. The temporary varying bottom boundary condition is adopted to describe the initial tsunami waves motivated by the submarine faults. The Indian Ocean tsunami is simulated by the numerical model as a validation case. The time series of water elevation and runup on the beach are compared with the measured data from field survey. The agreements indicate that the Boussinesq model can be used to simulate tsunamis and predict the waveform and runup. Then, the hypothetical tsunamis in the Okinawa Trench and the Manila Trench are simulated by the numerical model. The arrival time and maximum wave height near coastal cities are predicted by the model. It turns out that the leading depression N-wave occurs when the tsunami propagates in the continental shelf from the Okinawa Trench. The scenarios of the tsunami in the Manila Trench demonstrate significant effects on the coastal area around the South China Sea. 相似文献
10.
渤海海域地震海啸灾害概率性风险评估 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
渤海作为我国地震活动性最为活跃的近海，其地震海啸风险不可忽视。本文应用概率性海啸风险评估方法对渤海周边区域的海啸风险进行评估。根据历史地震目录建立了渤海区域的震级-频率关系，基于蒙特卡洛算法随机生成了一套10万年的地震目录，最终通过对地震事件的海啸数值模拟及最大波幅的统计分析给出了环渤海区域典型重现期的最大波幅分布以及重点城市的海啸波幅曲线。评估结果表明，渤海地区海啸风险主要集中在渤海湾和莱州湾周边，波幅可达到1~3 m，辽东湾地区海啸风险较低。 相似文献
11.
根据渤海区域地质断层特征和历史地震活动规律,分析得出渤海内潜在最大震级上限为8.1级,并对该海啸源可能的两组震源机制分别进行了数值模拟。模拟结果显示：渤海局部区域海啸波幅最大可达 1.5 m,最大流速可达2.8~3.0 m/s,具备造成灾害损失的风险。在该海啸源情景下,渤海海盆内易激发长期的水位自由振荡,部分区域水位振荡可持续 20 h以上,振荡波幅的大小与海啸首波波幅相当或更大。基于快速傅里叶变换方法对海啸波进行频谱分析,部分长周期频谱成分满足区域固有共振特征。因此,渤海内一旦发生海啸,不仅要关注海啸首波可能造成的灾害性影响,还要密切关注海啸首波到达后,可能产生的长时间、长周期的海啸波共振以及往复式海啸流造成的影响。 相似文献
12.
This study attempts to identify the key factors that will make a tsunami warning system most effective, to develop a framework in which results of natural science and engineering research can be effectively integrated into coastal natural hazard planning, and to develop a numerical example that illustrates how benefit-cost analysis may be used to assess early warning systems. Results of the study suggest that while the science of tsunami wave propagation and inundation is relatively advanced, our knowledge on the relationships between tsunami generation and undersea earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and landslides remains poor, resulting in significant uncertainties in tsunami forecasting. Probabilities of damaging tsunamis for many coastal regions are still unknown, making tsunami risk assessment and management difficult. Thus it is essential to develop new techniques to identify paleo-tsunami events and to compile and develop size and frequency information on historical tsunamis for different locations. An effective tsunami early warning system must include not only the ocean technologies for accurately detecting an emerging tsunami, but also a civil communication system through which the population can be timely warned by the local government and other sources. Since minimizing the evacuation time is a key factor to make a warning system effective, adequate pre-event education and preparation of the population must be a critical component of the system. Results of a numerical example of the South Pacific region suggest that investments in a tsunami warning system in the region may lead to significant economic benefits. 相似文献
13.
海上丝绸之路海啸灾害危险分析 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
海上丝绸之路不仅是商业和贸易的通道， 也是东西方文化友谊的道路。2004年印度洋海啸对丝路沿线的多个沿海国家造成了重大破坏。因此需要对海啸发生规律和危害进行分析， 以确保海上丝绸之路上经济和文化交流的安全。为探索和识别海上丝绸之路上的海啸灾害， 本文给出了历史海啸事件的特征和规律。从震源震级、震源深度和水深等震源参数中发现了一些历史海啸数据背后的有用信息。本文还探讨了不同震级引起海啸的概率问题。分析结果表明：海上丝绸之路上的海啸主要发生在8个主要构造断层， 每个断层都有不同的海啸发生规律。在统计分析的基础上， 本文采用数值模型模拟了海上丝绸之路沿岸的潜在海啸，计算结果展示了海上丝绸之路沿岸的潜在海啸灾害程度。本文的研究成果有助于海啸灾害预警， 能够为保证海上丝绸之路贸易交流的安全提供科学参考。 相似文献
14.
Thus far various numerical models have been developed and improved to aid understanding of the sediment transport process due to tsunamis. However, the applicability of these models for the field-scale bathymetric change remains a major issue due to the scarcity of measured bathymetric data immediately before and after tsunamis. This study focuses on assessing the applicability of the sediment transport model by comparing the model results with measured bathymetry data obtained one month before and two months after the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami at Kirinda Fishery Harbor, Sri Lanka. Obtained model results were compared with measured data along four different transects. In particular, similar to the measured data, the model reproduced the bed level change at the harbor mouth well, although it shows some discrepancy on bathymetric change along the shoreline, which is directly affected by littoral drift. Therefore, it is noted that the divergence of reproducing the local bathymetry change is due to the normal wind wave effect on measured data and the model limitations. Hence we included the wind wave effect in modeled data and the discrepancy between measured and modeled data was reduced. Furthermore, the modeled bed level change indicates a dynamic behavior in terms of the net variation during the tsunami flow, such that deposition dominates in the inflow and erosion dominates in the backflow. Both bed level variation and the suspended load concentration reveal that the large amount of eroded sediment attributable to tsunami waves was in suspended form and was deposited in the nearshore area after the water fluctuation had abated. The model results further indicate that eroded sediment at the initial depth deeper than 11 m might be brought by the incoming tsunami waves and deposited in the nearshore area where the depth is shallower than 7 m. 相似文献
15.
本文利用数值模拟技术重现了1707年宝永地震海啸的传播过程,定量分析了我国东海沿岸海啸时空分布特征。计算结果表明,地震发生2.5小时后海啸波传至东海陆架,震后6小时浙江沿海地区遭到海啸的袭击,沿岸最大海啸波高为0.8米。通过海啸波在东海大陆架传播时海底地形与波幅的关系,研究分析了东海陆架缓变地形下海啸放大效应,为及时判断沿海可能的海啸强度和受灾程度提供了便捷的估算方法。此外,本文还评估了南海海槽发生极端地震时,中国东海沿岸的海啸危险性,为东海区域针对日本南海海槽进行海啸预警和减灾评估提供定量科学的参考。 相似文献
16.
The history of catastrophic events on the Indian coast helps us to understand the frequency and magnitude of the tsunamis that occurred in the Indian Ocean. These catastrophic events have changed the coastal landscape and have left significant records for further studies. These rare events have occurred in the Indian Ocean. There have been megatsunamigenic events in the past due to volcanic eruptions and earthquakes. Those events due to earthquakes have proved more catastrophic than the volcanic activities. There has been limited official records of the causality and magnitude of palaeo-tsunamigenic events. These have been studied using the various proxies. The rate of sedimentation is a proportional tool to study the magnitude of a tsunami and this has proved to be a successful tool along with foraminiferal assemblages. Causes for a tsunami to occur are by and large, the subduction zone earthquakes of the Indian plate has been the most common source for tsunami in the Indian Ocean. More often the Andaman and Nicobar and the Indonesian islands have been vulnerable to tsunami than the mainland of India and Sri Lanka. In summary, in the last 200 years at least three basin-wide tsunamis have occurred, with several smaller tsunami affecting one or more coastlines in the region. The December 2004 M-9 tsunami seems to have been the largest and most destructive in the last two centuries, suggesting most tsunami are likely to be smaller but still allowing the possibility that even larger tsunami could be generated in propitious circumstances. 相似文献
17.
This paper provides an overview of a new large scale laboratory data set on the kinematics of breaking tsunami wavefronts. The aim of the experiments was to provide an open access data set for model testing, calibration and verification, with particular emphasis on fluid kinematics in the wave breaking and run-up (swash) zones. The experiments were performed over a composite slope in the tsunami wave basin at the O. H. Hinsdale Wave Research Laboratory at Oregon State University. Data for ten different wave conditions were collected, including non-breaking and breaking waves, and both shore breaks and fully developed long bores.Surface elevation and fluid kinematics were measured with a closely spaced array of surface piercing wave gauges, non-contact ultrasonic wave gauges and four 3-D side-looking Acoustic Doppler Velocimeters. The array was traversed from the nearshore (depth = 0.2 m) to the middle and upper run-up zone, providing kinematic data at 30 cross-shore locations. Video was also recorded from 4 cameras covering the propagation, breaking and run-up zones. Surface elevation, flow velocities and the wave maker displacement were also recorded to provide offshore boundary conditions.The experiments include conditions with wave heights up to 0.55 m, notional wave periods up to 20 s and run-up lengths of up to 15.2 m on a 1/30 slope. In terms of the slope in the shoaling and breaker zones, the data correspond to Iribarren numbers in the range of 0.26–5.6. Raw, calibrated and processed data are stored with open access within the OSU Tsunami Wave Basin Experiment Notebook, which provides full access to all the wave maker control signals, data, instrument coordinates, and processing and plotting software. This paper serves as an introduction to the data set, demonstrates data quality and provides an initial analysis of some key parameters that govern the impact of tsunami events, including run-up versus offshore wave conditions and nearshore bore height, the maximum inundation depths at the original shoreline position, and the time to maximum inundation depth and flow reversal. Examples of temporal and convective accelerations and turbulent flow components are also presented to illustrate further details of the kinematics. 相似文献
18.
L. I. Lobkovsky A. B. Rabinovich E. A. Kulikov A. I. Ivashchenko I. V. Fine R. E. Thomson T. N. Ivelskaya G. S. Bogdanov 《Oceanology》2009,49(2):166-181
Major earthquakes occurred in the region of the Central Kuril Islands on November 15, 2006 (M w = 8.3) and January 13, 2007 (M w = 8.1). These earthquakes generated strong tsunamis recorded throughout the entire Pacific Ocean. The first was the strongest trans-Pacific tsunami of the past 42 years (since the Alaska tsunami in 1964). The high probability of a strong earthquake (M w ≥ 8.5) and associated destructive tsunami occurring in this region was predicted earlier. The most probable earthquake source region was investigated and possible scenarios for the tsunami generation were modeled. Investigations of the events that occurred on November 15, 2006, and January 13, 2007, enabled us to estimate the validity of the forecast and compare the parameters of the forecasted and observed earthquakes and tsunamis. In this paper, we discuss the concept of “seismic gaps,” which formed the basis for the forecast of these events, and put forward further assumptions about the expected seismic activity in the region. We investigate the efficiency of the tsunami warning services and estimate the statistical parameters for the observed tsunami waves that struck the Far Eastern coast of Russia and Northern Japan. The propagation and transformation of the 2006 and 2007 tsunamis are studied using numerical hydrodynamic modeling. The spatial characteristics of the two events are compared. 相似文献
19.
马尼拉俯冲带潜在地震海啸对我国南部沿海城市构成巨大威胁,利用情景式数值模拟技术重构灾害过程并评估危险等级有助于理解南海海啸传播规律并指导预警预报和防灾减灾工作。根据美国太平洋海洋环境研究中心(Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, PMEL)发布的马尼拉俯冲带断层参数设计Mw 7.5、Mw 8.1和Mw 8.5三个震级下共19个震源,应用非静压海啸数值模型(Non-hydrostatic Evolution of Ocean WAVE, NEOWAVE)模拟各震源激发海啸在南海海盆的传播过程,通过最大波辐和测点时间序列发现海啸波能量传输分布并评估代表区域危险等级。研究表明, Mw 7.5级地震海啸对我国南部沿海的影响较低,波幅一般不超过30 cm; Mw 8.1级地震海啸对华南沿海主要造成太平洋海啸预警中心定义的Ⅱ或Ⅲ级海啸危险等级,海啸影响范围和能量分布特征由震源位置决定; Mw 8.5级地震海啸主要对中国沿海构... 相似文献
20.
The catastrophic tsunami of December 26, 2004 in Southeast Asia revealed the necessity of creating tsunami early warning systems
in the regions of the World Ocean where these systems are still absent but the potential hazard of tsunami generation exists.
The Black Sea is one of these regions. We present the general characteristic of the tsunami hazard in the Black-Sea region
and describe the most probable zones of tsunami generation, the specific features of tsunami propagation, and the parameters
of tsunamis according to the data of observations and the results of numerical simulations. We also discuss the possibility
of tsunami early warning on the basis of the operative data provided by the network of hydrometeorological and seismological
observation stations existing in this region.
Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 5, pp. 57–66, September–October, 2008. 相似文献