共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
L. I. Lobkovsky A. B. Rabinovich E. A. Kulikov A. I. Ivashchenko I. V. Fine R. E. Thomson T. N. Ivelskaya G. S. Bogdanov 《Oceanology》2009,49(2):166-181
Major earthquakes occurred in the region of the Central Kuril Islands on November 15, 2006 (M w = 8.3) and January 13, 2007 (M w = 8.1). These earthquakes generated strong tsunamis recorded throughout the entire Pacific Ocean. The first was the strongest trans-Pacific tsunami of the past 42 years (since the Alaska tsunami in 1964). The high probability of a strong earthquake (M w ≥ 8.5) and associated destructive tsunami occurring in this region was predicted earlier. The most probable earthquake source region was investigated and possible scenarios for the tsunami generation were modeled. Investigations of the events that occurred on November 15, 2006, and January 13, 2007, enabled us to estimate the validity of the forecast and compare the parameters of the forecasted and observed earthquakes and tsunamis. In this paper, we discuss the concept of “seismic gaps,” which formed the basis for the forecast of these events, and put forward further assumptions about the expected seismic activity in the region. We investigate the efficiency of the tsunami warning services and estimate the statistical parameters for the observed tsunami waves that struck the Far Eastern coast of Russia and Northern Japan. The propagation and transformation of the 2006 and 2007 tsunamis are studied using numerical hydrodynamic modeling. The spatial characteristics of the two events are compared. 相似文献
2.
海上丝绸之路海啸灾害危险分析 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
海上丝绸之路不仅是商业和贸易的通道， 也是东西方文化友谊的道路。2004年印度洋海啸对丝路沿线的多个沿海国家造成了重大破坏。因此需要对海啸发生规律和危害进行分析， 以确保海上丝绸之路上经济和文化交流的安全。为探索和识别海上丝绸之路上的海啸灾害， 本文给出了历史海啸事件的特征和规律。从震源震级、震源深度和水深等震源参数中发现了一些历史海啸数据背后的有用信息。本文还探讨了不同震级引起海啸的概率问题。分析结果表明：海上丝绸之路上的海啸主要发生在8个主要构造断层， 每个断层都有不同的海啸发生规律。在统计分析的基础上， 本文采用数值模型模拟了海上丝绸之路沿岸的潜在海啸，计算结果展示了海上丝绸之路沿岸的潜在海啸灾害程度。本文的研究成果有助于海啸灾害预警， 能够为保证海上丝绸之路贸易交流的安全提供科学参考。 相似文献
3.
R. Rajaraman S. Joseph Winston T. S. Murty Hema Achyuthan N. Nirupama 《Marine Geodesy》2006,29(3):167-178
The State of Tamil Nadu was the most affected region in India during the tsunami of December 26, 2004, in the Indian Ocean, in terms of loss of life and damage. Numerical simulation was made for three tsunamis, the December 26, 2004, event, the Sumatra tsunami of 1833, and a hypothetical tsunami originating in the Andaman-Nicobar region. Since inundation is not included in these simulations, the tsunami amplitudes were deduced at the 10m depth contour in the ocean, off several locations on the coast of Tamil Nadu. The computed amplitudes appear reasonable as compared to known tsunami amplitudes from past events. 相似文献
4.
海啸是自然灾害中对人类生命财产安全有严重威胁的灾难之一。随着全球气候变化和全球化贸易日益增强,越来越多的人口和经济暴露于海啸灾害。历史海啸灾害的时空分异分析可以帮助我们认识海啸灾害的演变规律,为灾害预警、灾害防控等提供有益参考。本文通过提取具有完整性和同质性的数据（爬高高度（RH））进行全球海啸的时空分异规律研究,结果表明:（1）对于0.1 m≤RH<0.5 m、0.5 m≤RH<1 m、1 m≤RH<5 m、5 m≤RH<10 m、10 m≤RH<20 m和20 m≤RH的间隔,海啸目录分别自1963年、1940年、1950年、1946年、1922年和1885年以来可以被认为是完整的;（2）全球海啸发生有一定的增加趋势,大约每年会多观测到7次波浪爬高事件。在0.1 m≤RH<5 m区间内,海啸发生呈现一定的周期性。当RH大于5 m时,表现出明显的增加趋势;（3）西北太平洋区域、南太平洋区域、东南太平洋区域、印度洋区域海啸发生有一定的增加趋势,而在北美区域则呈减少趋势,东北大西洋区域无显著变化;（4）除北美区域外,其他区域的海啸发生遵循一定的自组织临界行为,相比来说,东北大西洋区域更容易发生小的海啸事件,而西北太平洋区域和印度洋区域更容易发生各种强度的海啸事件。 相似文献
5.
V. K. Gusiakov 《Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics》2014,50(5):435-444
We consider the problems of assessing tsunami danger for sea coasts taking into account the risk of the strongest tsunamis of seismic origin. We identify a class of particularly dangerous transoceanic events characterized by extremely high runups (up to 40–50 m) at extended coastal areas (up to 500–1000 km). In most cases these transoceanic tsunamis are caused by underwater mega-earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or more occurring with a period between 200–300 and 1000–1200 years in some areas of subduction zones. The possibility of these earthquakes in subduction zones directly threatening a given coast should be taken into account in creating maps of tsunami zoning of any scale. 相似文献
6.
The Okinawa Trench in the East China Sea and the Manila Trench in the South China Sea are considered to be the regions with high risk of potential tsunamis induced by submarine earthquakes. Tsunami waves will impact the southeast coast of China if tsunamis occur in these areas. In this paper, the horizontal two-dimensional Boussinesq model is used to simulate tsunami generation, propagation, and runnp in a domain with complex geometrical boundaries. The temporary varying bottom boundary condition is adopted to describe the initial tsunami waves motivated by the submarine faults. The Indian Ocean tsunami is simulated by the numerical model as a validation case. The time series of water elevation and runup on the beach are compared with the measured data from field survey. The agreements indicate that the Boussinesq model can be used to simulate tsunamis and predict the waveform and runup. Then, the hypothetical tsunamis in the Okinawa Trench and the Manila Trench are simulated by the numerical model. The arrival time and maximum wave height near coastal cities are predicted by the model. It turns out that the leading depression N-wave occurs when the tsunami propagates in the continental shelf from the Okinawa Trench. The scenarios of the tsunami in the Manila Trench demonstrate significant effects on the coastal area around the South China Sea. 相似文献
7.
Compared to the Pacific Ocean, tsunamis are rare both in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans. However, the December 26, 2004, tsunami demonstrated that, no matter how rare they may be, when a major tsunami occurs, it could be very disastrous. The most basic information in tsunami warning center requires are charts showing tsunami travel times to various locations around the rim of the ocean. With this in mind, a tsunami travel time atlas for the Atlantic Ocean is in preparation. The Caribbean Sea is also included in this Atlas, as it is more or less a part of the Atlantic Basin. 相似文献
8.
Compared to the Pacific Ocean, tsunamis are rare both in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans. However, the December 26, 2004, tsunami demonstrated that, no matter how rare they may be, when a major tsunami occurs, it could be very disastrous. The most basic information in tsunami warning center requires are charts showing tsunami travel times to various locations around the rim of the ocean. With this in mind, a tsunami travel time atlas for the Atlantic Ocean is in preparation. The Caribbean Sea is also included in this Atlas, as it is more or less a part of the Atlantic Basin. 相似文献
9.
S. F. Dotsenko 《Physical Oceanography》2001,11(5):411-424
We perform the analysis of tsunami waves in the shelf zone of the Crimean peninsula generated by underwater earthquakes whose
epicentres are located near the lower boundary of the continental slope. For this purpose, we use a one-dimensional nonlinear
dissipative numerical model of long waves. The investigated distributions of the depth of the basin correspond to four points
of the south coast of the Crimean peninsula. We use the empirical dependences of parameters of the sources of tsunami waves
on the magnitude of the earthquake obtained earlier for the Pacific Ocean. It is shown that the height, vertical climb, and
duration of tsunami waves increase with the magnitude of the earthquake. For equal magnitudes of the earthquake, the highest
tsunamis on the south coast of the Crimea are observed between Alushta and Yalta. We also deduced a generalized regression
dependence of the height of tsunami waves near the coast on the magnitude of the earthquake.
Translated by Peter V. Malyshev and Dmitry V. Malyshev 相似文献
10.
This study attempts to identify the key factors that will make a tsunami warning system most effective, to develop a framework in which results of natural science and engineering research can be effectively integrated into coastal natural hazard planning, and to develop a numerical example that illustrates how benefit-cost analysis may be used to assess early warning systems. Results of the study suggest that while the science of tsunami wave propagation and inundation is relatively advanced, our knowledge on the relationships between tsunami generation and undersea earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and landslides remains poor, resulting in significant uncertainties in tsunami forecasting. Probabilities of damaging tsunamis for many coastal regions are still unknown, making tsunami risk assessment and management difficult. Thus it is essential to develop new techniques to identify paleo-tsunami events and to compile and develop size and frequency information on historical tsunamis for different locations. An effective tsunami early warning system must include not only the ocean technologies for accurately detecting an emerging tsunami, but also a civil communication system through which the population can be timely warned by the local government and other sources. Since minimizing the evacuation time is a key factor to make a warning system effective, adequate pre-event education and preparation of the population must be a critical component of the system. Results of a numerical example of the South Pacific region suggest that investments in a tsunami warning system in the region may lead to significant economic benefits. 相似文献
11.
As a result of mooring of autonomous seabed stations in bays of Shikotan Island, the records of two tsunamis were obtained from strong earthquakes that occurred off the coast of Chile on April 1, 2014, and September 16, 2015. In both cases, prolonged intense vibrations with a pronounced group structure were observed in various bays, mainly with periods of the main modes of resonance oscillations. The second event was more dangerous, and the wave height was 0.9 m at Malokurilskaya Bay. The increase in the energy of fluctuations in 2015 was more significant, manifesting itself in a wider range of periods. Numerical simulation of the tsunami showed that the nature of wave propagation in both earthquakes was identical in the northern part of the Pacific Ocean, approaching Russia’s Pacific coast, and was characterized by weak damping, in contrast to waves propagating to the south and southwest. This explains why expect large waves can be expected on the coasts of the Kurils from earthquakes off the coast of South America, despite the considerable distance. 相似文献
12.
The catastrophic tsunami of December 26, 2004 in Southeast Asia revealed the necessity of creating tsunami early warning systems
in the regions of the World Ocean where these systems are still absent but the potential hazard of tsunami generation exists.
The Black Sea is one of these regions. We present the general characteristic of the tsunami hazard in the Black-Sea region
and describe the most probable zones of tsunami generation, the specific features of tsunami propagation, and the parameters
of tsunamis according to the data of observations and the results of numerical simulations. We also discuss the possibility
of tsunami early warning on the basis of the operative data provided by the network of hydrometeorological and seismological
observation stations existing in this region.
Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 5, pp. 57–66, September–October, 2008. 相似文献
13.
Shandong province is located on the east coast of China and has a coastline of about 3100 km. There are only a few tsunami events recorded in the history of Shandong Province, but the tsunami hazard assessment is still necessary as the rapid economic development and increasing population of this area. The objective of this study was to evaluate the potential danger posed by tsunamis for Shandong Province. The numerical simulation method was adopted to assess the tsunami hazard for coastal areas of Shandong Province. The Cornell multi-grid coupled tsunami numerical model (COMCOT) was used and its efficacy was verified by comparison with three historical tsunami events. The simulated maximum tsunami wave height agreed well with the observational data. Based on previous studies and statistical analyses, multiple earthquake scenarios in eight seismic zones were designed, the magnitudes of which were set as the potential maximum values. Then, the tsunamis they induced were simulated using the COMCOT model to investigate their impact on the coastal areas of Shandong Province. The numerical results showed that the maximum tsunami wave height, which was caused by the earthquake scenario located in the sea area of the Mariana Islands, could reach up to 1.39 m off the eastern coast of Weihai city. The tsunamis from the seismic zones of the Bohai Sea, Okinawa Trough, and Manila Trench could also reach heights of >1 m in some areas, meaning that earthquakes in these zones should not be ignored. The inundation hazard was distributed primarily in some northern coastal areas near Yantai and southeastern coastal areas of Shandong Peninsula. When considering both the magnitude and arrival time of tsunamis, it is suggested that greater attention be paid to earthquakes that occur in the Bohai Sea. In conclusion, the tsunami hazard facing the coastal area of Shandong Province is not very serious; however, disasters could occur if such events coincided with spring tides or other extreme oceanic conditions. The results of this study will be useful for the design of coastal engineering projects and the establishment of a tsunami warning system for Shandong Province. 相似文献
14.
Abstract In the recent seismological literature, several articles appeared which suggested that major earthquakes are likely to occur in the near future, in the various seismic gaps around the rim of the Pacific Basin. Although the direct effects of these earthquakes may be confined to local areas, the tsunamis that will generate are expected to travel Pacific Ocean wide and cause great destruction even at far off places around the Pacific Ocean. Here, the various approaches to delineating the tsunami hazard are discussed and some suggestions are made. 相似文献
15.
HF radar detection of tsunamis 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Belinda J. Lipa Donald E. Barrick John Bourg Bruce B. Nyden 《Journal of Oceanography》2006,62(5):705-716
This paper demonstrates that HF radar systems can be used to detect tsunamis well before their arrival at a coastline. We
solve the equations of motion and continuity on the ocean surface using models to simulate the signals produced by a tsunami
approaching the east U.S. coast. Height and velocity profiles are derived along with expressions for the radar-observed current
velocities in terms of bathymetry and tsunami height and period. Simulated tsunami-generated radial current velocities are
superimposed on typical maps of radial velocity generated by a Rutgers University HF radar system. A detection parameter is
defined and plotted to quantify the progress of the tsunami, which is shown to be detectable well before its arrival at the
coast. We describe observations/warnings that would have been provided by HF radar systems at locations in the path of the
2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. 相似文献
16.
We perform the numerical analysis of the process of propagation of long waves in the northwest part of the Black Sea and consider
ten possible zones of the seismic generation of tsunamis. The numerical analysis is performed on a grid with steps of 500 m.
It is shown that the location of the tsunami source significantly affects the distribution of the heights of waves along the
coast. As a rule, the most intense waves are formed in the closest part of the coast. The earthquakes in the South-Coast seismic
zone do not lead to the formation of tsunamis in the west part of the sea. Only strong earthquakes in the northwest part of
the sea can be responsible for noticeable oscillations of the Black-Sea level. The period of tsunamis near Odessa is close
to 1 h and depends on the magnitude of the earthquake. In the region of Sevastopol, this period is 2--3 times smaller. In
the major part of the coastal points, the extreme elevations and lowerings of the sea level do not exceed (in modulus) the
initial displacements of the sea surface at the source of tsunamis. An intensification of waves emitted from the zones of
generation located in the deeper part of the investigated region was observed for some parts of the Romanian coast and the
west coast of Crimea. As the magnitude of the earthquake increases, the intensification of waves near the coast becomes more
pronounced. 相似文献
17.
18.
Abstract Tsunami research has suffered considerably due to the lack of an objective magnitude scale. The Imamura‐Iida Grade Scale, although it has been used until now as a magnitude scale, is not objective, and it is more appropriate to call it a tsunami intensity scale. The tsunami magnitude scale proposed by Abe (1979) is also based on coastal tide gauge records, and this is not truly an objective magnitude scale. A new magnitude scale is proposed here, based on total tsunami energy, and it is demonstrated that this new scale will provide an adequate representation of the whole spectrum of tsunamis, starting from the negligible ones and including those that have devastated whole coastlines. 相似文献
19.
A study of tsunami events in the East （Japan） Sea using continuous Galerkin finite element model, aiming at reproducing tsunami waves generated by underwater earthquakes in 1983 and 1993 respectively has been performed focusing on the geographic extent of a topographic feature in the East （Japan） Sea. Numerical models can be the proper tools to study the combined effects of realistic topography. Subsequently, using the FEM based two-dimensional model we have simulated the smoothed and flattened topographic effects by removal of Yamato Rise and seamounts for the cases of tthe 1983 Central region earthquake tsunami and the 1993 southwestern Hokkaido earthquake tsunami. The results have shown that there will be higher tsunamis along the eastern coasts of Korea in general except some areas, like Sokcho with removal of topographic highs, thus providing complicated bottom topography of the East （Japan） Sea as effective tsunami energy scattering. 相似文献
20.
Both spatial and spatiotemporal distributions of the sources of tsunamigenic earthquakes of tectonic origin over the last 112 years have been analyzed. This analysis has been made using tsunami databases published by the Institute of Computational Mathematics and Mathematical Geophysics (Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (United States), as well as earthquake catalogs published by the National Earthquake Information Center (United States). It has been found that the pronounced activation of seismic processes and an increase in the total energy of tsunamigenic earthquakes were observed at the beginning of both the 20th (1905–1920) and 21st (2004–2011) centuries. Studying the spatiotemporal periodicity of such events on the basis of an analysis of the two-dimensional distributions of the sources of tectonic tsunamis has made it possible to determine localized latitudinal zones with a total lack of such events (90°?75° N, 45°–90° S, and 35°?25° N) and regions with a periodic occurrence of tsunamis mainly within the middle (65°?35° N and 25°–40° S) and subequatorial (15° N–20° S) latitudes of the Northern and Southern hemispheres. The objective of this work is to analyze the spatiotemporal distributions of sources of tsunamigenic earthquakes and the effect of the periodic occurrence of such events on the basis of data taken from global tsunami catalogs. 相似文献