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1.
WRF模式对江苏如东地区风速预报的检验分析 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
探讨了WRF模式在风电场的风速或者功率预报中应用的可行性, 主要研究和评估了WRF模式对地处东亚季风区及海陆交界的江苏如东地区夏季和冬季风速的短期预报效能。研究发现WRF模式可以比较好地预报如东站冬季的风速, 24 h预报的风速时间序列和观测资料的相关系数可以达到0.61, 通过置信度99%的检验, 48 h和72 h的预报与观测风速相关系数分别为0.54和0.47, 也能通过置信度99%的检验;相对而言, 模式对夏季风速的预报则要差一些, 24 h的相关系数有0.59, 48 h和72 h的相关系数只有0.47和0.30, 但仍能通过置信度99%的检验。在量值上, 模式预报的风速比观测值都略偏大一些。而江苏南通市预报结果显示, 模式的预报效能要比如东稍高一些, 和如东类似, 模式对该地冬季的预报要好于对夏季风速的预报。从更大尺度范围的分析也表明, 模式对不同地区预报的准确度是不一样的, 对海面以及海陆交界的海岸预报精度要高一些, 在平坦的内陆地区预报也比较好, 但在山区预报效能则较差。总体说来, WRF能胜任风速短期预报, 值得进一步研究和应用。 相似文献
2.
Jian SUN Zhenxing SHEN Yue ZHANG Wenting DAI Kun HE Hongmei XU Zhou ZHANG Long CUI Xuxiang LI Yu HUANG Junji CAO 《大气科学进展》2021,38(1):116-131
Summer and winter campaigns for the chemical compositions and sources of nonmethane hydrocarbons(NMHCs)and oxygenated volatile organic compounds(OVOCs)were conducted in Xi’an.Data from 57 photochemical assessment monitoring stations for NMHCs and 20 OVOC species were analyzed.Significant seasonal differences were noted for total VOC(TVOC,NMHCs and OVOCs)concentrations and compositions.The campaign-average TVOC concentrations in winter(85.3±60.6 ppbv)were almost twice those in summer(47.2±31.6 ppbv).Alkanes and OVOCs were the most abundant category in winter and summer,respectively.NMHCs,but not OVOCs,had significantly higher levels on weekends than on weekdays.Total ozone formation potential was higher in summer than in winter(by 50%)because of the high concentrations of alkenes(particularly isoprene),high temperature,and high solar radiation levels in summer.The Hybrid Environmental Receptor Model(HERM)was used to conduct source apportionment for atmospheric TVOCs in winter and summer,with excellent accuracy.HERM demonstrated its suitability in a situation where only partial source profile data were available.The HERM results indicated significantly different seasonal source contributions to TVOCs in Xi’an.In particular,coal and biomass burning had contributions greater than half in winter(53.4%),whereas traffic sources were prevalent in summer(53.1%).This study’s results highlight the need for targeted and adjustable VOC control measures that account for seasonal differences in Xi’an;such measures should target not only the severe problem with VOC pollution but also the problem of consequent secondary pollution(e.g.,from ozone and secondary organic aerosols). 相似文献
3.
异常东亚冬季风对夏季南海地区风场及热力场的影响 总被引：18，自引：1，他引：17
用合成及SVD方法,对冬季风异常在南海地区的风场和热力场中所产生的影响进行了研究,并探讨了这种相互联系的可能机制。结果表明,冬季风异常对流场的影响可以从冬季持续至春、夏季。在强冬季风年,南海夏季风爆发偏早、偏强且突发性显著;而在弱冬季风年则相反。长江流域的情况则与此相反,强冬季风时,该地区夏季对流偏弱,降水减少;弱冬季风时相反。南海地区风场的变化与该地区大气及下垫面热状态的改变有关。强、弱冬季风所对应的同期及后期的海温截然不同。在强冬季风年,热带海温场上呈现LaNi*S～/n@a型的异常分布,而在亚洲大陆近海及南海地区,则维持较强的负距平,海水温度明显偏低,强度以春季为最强。它所形成的南海及邻近地区海陆之间的温度梯度有利于夏季风的早爆发和加强;而在弱季风年,则完全相反。与异常冬季风相关联的大气的热状态同样具有季节的持续性。春、夏季季风区中大气热状态的改变,影响了夏季风特别是南海夏季风爆发的早晚及其强度的变化。由冬季风异常引起的热源变化可能也是环流隔季相关的重要纽带之一。 相似文献
4.
Extreme forms of weather are predicted to become more frequent experiences in the future. However, the hardest event to mitigate against is the unexpected. In the UK, the occurrence of winter snowfall is difficult to predict, highly variable, both spatially and temporally and predicted to become less common in the future. This paper examines the consequences of the severe winter of 1946/1947 at the local scale through a Welsh case study of Cwm Tywi, a community of upland sheep farms. This community had shown great resilience during the snowiest winter on record in comparison with other, more urban communities, but the inhabitants eventually abandoned their homes because of the emotional distress caused by the loss of a large proportion of the livestock. In addition to the severity of the snow, perceptions of the extreme nature of this event and the community??s ability to mitigate as a result of rurality, self-sufficiency and remoteness are investigated through the analysis of interviews, oral histories, and other documentary accounts. This case study provides an insight into the complexity of understanding vulnerability, adaptation and resilience, which are temporally and spatially specific. 相似文献
5.
对冬季平均气温序列采用三分位方法确定单站暖冬阈值, 并将单站暖冬分为弱和强两个等级。以此为基础, 确定区域暖冬和全国暖冬的界定方法和等级划分标准。区域暖冬采用站点相对比例确定, 全国暖冬采用暖冬面积相对比例界定。对我国1952— 2007年的暖冬事件变化特征的分析结果表明:南方暖冬频率高于北方, 强暖冬多发区出现在我国中西部地区; 北方单站暖冬指数上升幅度大于南方, 表明北方暖冬事件上升趋势更加明显; 以1986年为界, 前期 (1952— 1985年) 南、北方各区域均很少出现暖冬, 南方各区暖冬频率略高于北方各区, 后期 (1986—2007年) 各区暖冬年大为增加, 北方各区增加最明显且超过了南方; 56年中, 全国性暖冬共发生15次 (年), 其中强暖冬共有5次 (年); 全国暖冬指数呈显著上升趋势, 在有效面积不变的情况下, 暖冬面积每10年增加10%。 相似文献
6.
Summary This paper deals with the surface pressure covariability over the Altantic/European sector of the Northern Hemisphere, using monthly grid point data for the 100 year period 1890–1989. Factor analysis is applied to 90 grid point time series for January, February, July, and August. The initial 90 pressure variables can be reduced to 7–8 factors in winter and 10 in summer. A winter teleconnection was identified, known as the seesaw phenomenon, between the Icelandic low and the Azores subtropical anticyclone. In order to define the centers of action for temperature, winter precipitation and summer northerly wind frequency (etesian days) in Athens and in the Aegean sea, the variability of the factor scores and of these weather elements is compared. It is shown that the center of action for temperature in Athens is found to be in north and northwest Europe (centered over southern Scandinavia). For winter precipitation, the center of action is located in the west and southwest Mediterranean and northwest Africa. Finally, for the etesian winds frequency variability, this center of action is found over the northern Adriatic and northern former Yugoslavia, while there is no evidence of influence by the southwest Asia thermal low.With 12 Figures 相似文献
7.
Volcanic Dry Fogs, Climate Cooling, and Plague Pandemics in Europe and the Middle East 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Richard B. Stothers 《Climatic change》1999,42(4):713-723
Dry fogs spawned by large volcanic eruptions cool the climate by partially blocking incident sunlight and perturbing atmospheric circulation patterns. The climatic and epidemiological consequences of seven intense volcanic dry fogs of the past 21 centuries, detected in Europe and the Middle East, are investigated by using historical reports, supplemented by tree-ring data and polar-ice acidity measurements. The signal-to-noise ratio in the historical data is very high. In four cases, the first winter following the eruption was exceptionally cold. The eruptions preceding these frigid first winters are known, or strongly suspected, to have occurred at high northern latitudes. Two of the other dry fogs are linked unambiguously to tropical eruptions, after each of which the first winter was comparatively mild. The following few years tended to be cooler on the average in all six of the instances that can be checked. Famine and disease pandemics ensued, with the epidemics in all cases reaching the Mediterranean area within 1 to 5 years after the eruptions. In at least five cases, the contagion responsible for the mass mortality was probably plague. 相似文献
8.
冬季北极涛动对西伯利亚高压、东亚冬季风以及海冰范围的可能影响 总被引：23，自引：0，他引：23
利用NCEP／NCAR月平均再分析资料（1958－1997），月平均海表面温度资料（1950－1992）以及月的海冰密集度资料（1953－1995），研究了冬季北极涛动与西伯利亚高压、东亚冬季风以及巴伦支海海冰范围之间的联系。研究结果表明，冬季北极涛动不仅影响北极和北大西洋区域气候变化，并且可能影响冬季西伯利亚高压，进而影响东亚冬季风。当冬季北极涛动处于正位相时，冬季西伯利亚高压和东亚冬季风都偏弱，在西伯利亚南部和东亚沿岸，包括中国东部、韩国和日本，从地表面到对流层中部气温偏高0.5-2℃。当冬季北极涛动处于负位相时，结果正相反。研究结果还表明，冬季西伯利亚高压对北极以及北大西洋区域气候变化没有显的影响，与北极涛动的影响相比，西伯利亚的影响强度和范围明显偏弱。研究进一步揭示了冬季北极涛动可能影响西伯利亚高压的可能机理。冬季西伯利亚高压与动力过程以及从地表面到对流层中部的气温变化有密切的关系。西伯利亚高压的西部变化主要依赖于动力过程，而其东部与气温变化更为密切。冬季西伯利亚高压的维持主要依赖于对流层中的下沉气流，这种下沉气流源于北大西洋区域，其变化受到北极涛动的影响。当冬季北极涛动处于正（负）位相时，气流的下沉运动明显减弱（增强），进而影响冬季西伯利亚高压。此处，冬季北极涛动对同时期的巴伦支海海冰范围有显的影响。 相似文献
9.
基于新疆96个气象站1961—2014年月平均气温、北极涛动指数和NCEP/NCAR再分析环流资料,分析了冬季北极涛动异常与新疆同期气温变化的关系及其影响。结果表明:冬季北极涛动指数与新疆冬季平均气温相关较好,42.7%的测站冬季气温与北极涛动指数的相关系数通过0.05显著性水平检验,主要集中在新疆北部地区。在冬季北极涛动指数偏强的7 a,新疆冬季气温偏高、偏低的概率分别为93.0%与6.3%;在冬季北极涛动指数异常偏低的14 a,冬季气温偏高、偏低的概率分别为41.5%和56.1%,偏低概率高于偏高概率。当冬季北极涛动指数偏强时,850 h Pa新疆及其北部广大区域盛行异常偏南风,不利于冷空气南下,新疆冬季气温高;反之,盛行异常偏北风,新疆冬季气温偏低。 相似文献
10.
2020/2021和2021/2022年冬季京津冀气温呈明显相反的季节内变化特征,前者前冬气温异常偏低后冬偏高,而后者前冬气温极端偏高后冬转冷。这两年前冬冷暖反相的直接原因是亚洲冬季风环流异常。2020年12月欧亚地区为典型的经向环流,西伯利亚高压偏强,乌拉尔山高压脊亦偏强,造成京津冀上空对流层中低层气温一致性偏低,而2021年12月环流形势相反。这两年冬季均处在拉尼娜背景下,但夏秋季喀拉海海冰异常有明显差异,可能是京津冀这两年前冬气温异常相反潜在的外强迫信号。统计和个例分析结果均表明,喀拉海海冰偏多易导致前冬西伯利亚高压偏弱,青藏高原地区海平面气压和亚洲大陆中纬度地区500 hPa位势高度均为正距平,不利于冷空气活动,造成2021/2022年前冬京津冀气温偏高,反之海冰偏少造成2020/2021年前冬偏冷。 相似文献
11.
2013/2014年东亚冬季风异常偏弱的可能成因 总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1
2005年之后东亚冬季风连续7年强度偏强,而2013/2014年冬季,东亚冬季风强度突然由强转弱,原因可能与前期秋季北极海冰的异常有关,受2013年秋季北极海冰异常影响,冬季西伯利亚高压偏弱,进而导致东亚冬季风偏弱以及我国气温偏高。季内,东亚冬季风强度变化显著,前冬偏弱,后冬偏强。受冬季风季节内变化影响,我国前冬暖、后冬冷;此外,前冬暖、后冬冷还受到北太平洋上空阻塞高压的异常活动影响,北太平洋地区的阻塞高压加强西移至日界线以西,导致东亚地区经向型环流加强,改变了前冬以纬向型为主的环流,前冬高纬地区堆积的冷空气向东亚地区侵袭。加之,前冬我国气温偏高,导致后冬我国多地降温显著,气温由偏高转偏低。而阻塞高压的西移可能与平流层环流的异常活动有关。 相似文献
12.
为探讨北方冬麦区节水灌溉的关键时期,借助干旱和灌溉对冬小麦冠层光分布,获取本地化参数,为华北农业干旱预报模型的修正提供依据。采用美国CID公司生产的CI-110型植物冠层分析仪,对干旱和灌溉条件下冬小麦冠层内光分布进行直接测定。结果表明,干旱和灌溉条件下,无论是高氮还是低氮、中氮,平均叶面倾角(MLA)都随生育期的延长呈现出先下降再上升的趋势。高氮和低氮时,随着生育期的延长,干旱处理和灌溉处理的冬小麦散射辐射透过系数(TCDP)都呈现先下降再上升的变化趋势;中氮时,干旱处理和灌溉处理的冬小麦TCDP在开花期和灌浆期都呈现一直上升的趋势。无论高氮还是中氮、低氮,冬小麦直接辐射透过系数(TCRP)的值都随着天顶角角度的增大而减小,冬小麦TCRP的值随着冬小麦生育期的推进,都呈现出先下降、后上升的变化趋势。高、中、低氮3种情况下,干旱和灌溉处理的冬小麦每个生育期均呈现随着天顶角角度的增加,消光系数K也增大;高氮时,多数情况下,冬小麦冠层的消光系数K干旱的大于灌溉的;中氮、低氮时,多数情况下,冬小麦冠层的消光系数K干旱的小于灌溉的。干旱和灌溉对冬小麦冠层光分布的影响:灌溉增加了冬小麦的平均叶面倾角(MLA);干旱和灌溉处理条件下冬小麦的TCDP差异较小,TCDP与MLA变化趋势相似,也都呈现出先下降、再上升的变化规律;干旱和灌溉处理冬小麦TCRP,无论高氮还是中氮、低氮,都随着天顶角角度的增大而减小,在7.5°、22.5°时干旱和灌溉对冬小麦TCRP的影响较大,而在37.5°、52.5°、67.5°时对冬小麦TCRP的值影响很小;每个生育期消光系数K均随着天顶角角度的增加而增大。 相似文献
13.
北半球冬季欧亚遥相关型的变化特征及其对我国气候的影响? 总被引：20，自引：7，他引：13
利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和我国160站地表面气温和降水的观测资料, 首先采用旋转经验正交函数 (REOF) 方法定义了冬季欧亚遥相关型 (EU), 并计算了冬季的欧亚遥相关型指数 (EU指数), 在此基础上分析了欧亚遥相关型的时间和空间变化特征, 并进一步研究了与欧亚遥相关型异常相联系的东亚冬季风系统变化以及我国冬季气温和降水的异常。针对欧亚遥相关型的分析结果表明, 在欧亚大陆上空, 大气内部存在与EU相联系的波列从北大西洋传播到乌拉尔山以东的欧亚大陆地区。在时间变化上, 冬季EU以为年际变率为主, 年代际变化的分量不明显, 其显著周期表现为2～4年。当冬季EU处于正位相时, 与之相关联的东亚大气环流异常表现为: 东亚地区高空的急流增强、 东亚大槽加深, 导致东亚冬季风偏强, 东亚地区温度偏低, 从而使得我国东部降温、 降水减少; 反之, 当冬季EU处于负位相时, 我国东部增温、 降水增加。 相似文献
14.
气旋爆发性发展产生的北方冬季雷暴天气分析 总被引：9，自引：4，他引：5
分析了１９９０年１２月２１日和１９９６年１２月３１日沈阳市出现的两次冬季雷暴天气过程,结果表明：这两次冬季雷暴天气都是由于气旋在短时间内爆发性发展所产生的。气旋的爆发性发展对我国北方除造成大范围降雪外,还可产生强对流天气。而气旋以“Ｕ”型路径移动,入渤海后迅速发展;８５０、７００ｈＰａ爆发性的增温增湿导致其以上气层出现潜在不稳定层结,是预报冬季雷暴的一个着眼点。此外,城市热岛效应对触发冬季雷暴也起 相似文献
15.
基于机器学习的中国冬季气温影响因子分析及模型估算 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
使用1951—2021年160个中国国家级气象观测站冬季平均气温及多项大气环流及海温等指数,用机器学习方法研究影响中国冬季气温异常的大气环流及海温等外强迫因子,并建立估算拟合模型,评价筛选出的影响因子组合对中国冬季气温异常分布的贡献。使用最小绝对收缩和选择算子（LASSO）算法提取与冬季气温异常相关的影响因子。为体现特征因子之间非线性关系,使用泰勒公式对筛选后的特征进行多项式增广。使用最小二乘梯度提升决策树（LS-GBDT）算法对筛选出的特征因子与冬季气温异常之间的非线性关系进行估算拟合。结果表明,机器学习方法能够对影响冬季气温异常的特征因子进行合理筛选与重要性分析,建立的估算模型在一定程度上体现了气候系统特征因子与冬季气温距平的非线性联系。本研究为了解中国冬季气温异常分布的影响因素及其模拟与估算提供了新方法和途径。 相似文献
16.
Climatology of Ozone, PAN, CO, and NMHC in the Free Troposphere Over the Southern North Atlantic 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Free tropospheric measurements of ozone, peroxyacetylnitrate andprecursors (CO, NMHC) that were made within the framework of the EUROTRACsub-project TOR (Tropospheric Ozone Research) between 1990 and 1995 at theGAW station Izana, Tenerife (28°18N, 16°30W) arediscussed. The average annual cycles reveal the importance of transport fromnorthern mid-latitudes and the role of photo-chemistry. According toair-mass trajectories, which were supplied to us from AEROCE(Atmosphere/Ocean Chemistry Experiment), transport from northernmid-latitudes is associated with high precursor concentrations in winter,whereas ozone concentrations in winter are not much influenced by transportpatterns, suggesting a rather uniform distribution over the northern part ofthe Northern Hemisphere around mean value of 43 ± 5 ppb. In summer,high ozone concentrations of up to 90 ppb are often encountered duringtransport from north, while the levels of precursors are much lower than inwinter, because of photochemical destruction. Trajectories from southerlylatitudes and the Sahara usually have the lowest ozone concentrationsassociated with them. 相似文献
17.
Using NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data and observational data from meteorological stations in China, the evolution of the East Asian cold season (EACS) and its long-term changes after 2000 were studied. A monsoon tendency index (MTI), defined as the temporal di?erence of the East Asian monsoon index, indi- cates that the winter monsoon setup has been postponed in autumn, while the setup has quickened in early winter. In mid winter, the EACS breakdown process has accelerated, while it has lingered in late winter. The authors suggest that the postponement of monsoon setup in autumn may be caused by strong global warming at the lower levels, which further limits the setup time period and leads to the quickening of the setup process in early winter. Meanwhile, a north-south seesaw of temperature tendency change in China can be observed in December and February, which may be related to large-scale circulation changes in the stratosphere, characterized by a polar warming in mid winter and polar cooling in early spring. This linkage is possibly caused by the dynamical coupling between stratosphere and troposphere, via the variation of planetary wave activities. In spring, the speed of the EACS breakdown has decreased, which favors the revival of the EACS in East Asia. 相似文献
18.
中国西部地区是著名的气候脆弱区,降水的多寡对其影响十分巨大。尤其是在全球变暖的背景下,西部地区的增暖、增湿异常显著,随之而来的西部地区气候变化也越来越受到关注。本研究主要分析了中国西部地区冬季降水的时空变化特征,结果表明:该地区冬季降水的最主要模态具有全区一致变化的特点,并且在20世纪80年代中期出现了一次显著的年代际突变,突变之后中国西部地区冬季降水明显增多。大气环流和水汽输送的分析结果显示,引起西部地区冬季降水年际和年代际变化的因子有着明显的差异。其中西风带水汽输送是影响西部地区冬季降水年代际变化的主要原因;而影响西部地区冬季降水年际变化的水汽则主要来自于阿拉伯海西南向的水汽输送;而且在不同年代际背景下,影响中国西部地区冬季降水的主要水汽输送通道是一致的。这些说明西部降水的预测必须要分不同时间尺度进行研究,短期气候预测需要综合考虑年际变化、年代际变化以及气候长期变化背景才会更为合理和可行。另外,西部降水年际变化因子在不同年代际背景下的稳定性,为建立该地区持续稳定的年际预测模型奠定了科学基础。 相似文献
19.
Shakti Suryavanshi Ashish Pandey Umesh Chandra Chaube Nitin Joshi 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2014,117(3-4):403-418
In this study, trend analyses of historic past climatic variables were investigated for the Betwa basin located in Central India. In the serially independent climatic variables, Mann–Kendall test (MK test) was applied to the original sample data. However, in the serially correlated series, pre-whitening is used before employing the MK test. The long-term trend analysis showed several of the meteorological stations to exhibit a decreasing trend in annual and seasonal precipitation in the study area. Seasonal and yearly numbers of rainy days are decreased. However, onset of effective monsoon (except for Shivpuri and Tikamgarh stations) did not show any trend during the study period. For maximum temperature, five out of 12 stations showed a decreasing trend in monsoon season whereas almost all other stations showed an increasing trend in winter and no trend in summer season. For minimum temperature, only two stations of the basin showed a decreasing trend in monsoon and all other stations exhibited a significant increase in winter and summer season. The increase of winter temperature may adversely affect the growth of Rabi crop (wheat and mustard) in the study area. Potential evopotranspiration (PET) did not show any trend in monsoon, except for Jalaun and Jhansi stations, showing decreasing trends. Raisen and Vidisha stations showed an increasing trend in winter only, and the trend for other stations were random in nature. In summer, five out of 12 stations showed an increasing trend in PET. Results of this study can be employed in preparation of water resources development and management plan in the Betwa Basin. 相似文献
20.
利用1961—2020年辽宁省56个气象站冬季逐日气温数据,根据国家标准《暖冬等级》,以1990—2020年为气候值作为参考,综合采用气候倾向率、IDW、滑动t检验突变分析以及小波分析等方法,分析辽宁省近60 a冬季平均气温的时空变化趋势,单站暖冬及区域暖冬事件的气候变化特征。结果表明：近60 a来辽宁省冬季平均气温以0.3℃/10 a的速率升高,辽宁中部和东部地区变暖趋势最为显著;20世纪90年代前的30 a属于偏冷时段,但增温效应强于后30 a,冬季平均气温在1987年前后出现了明显的由冷转暖的突变,1971年出现了相对较弱的冷暖转变;1988年后逐年单站暖冬事件的发生整体比1961—1987年出现单站暖冬事件明显增多。发生频次较高的地区分布在辽宁中部和东南部地区,为16—20次;近60 a来共有16次区域暖冬事件,21世纪后的20 a内共出现9次区域暖冬事件,占总数的60%;区域暖冬事件以准22 a和2—3 a为振荡周期。 相似文献