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1.
Submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) is a global phenomenon that carries large volumes of groundwater and dissolved chemical species such as nutrient, metals, and organic compounds to coastal zones. We report the influence of SGD on the coastal waters of Jeju Island, Korea, using high‐resolution aerial thermal infrared (TIR) mapping techniques and field investigations. An aircraft‐based system was implemented using a cost‐effective TIR camera for aerial TIR mapping. Ground‐based calibrations and system integration with GPS/IMU (global positioning system/inertial measurement unit) were performed for the aerial systems. The aerial surveys showed distinct low‐temperature signatures of SGD along the coasts of Jeju Island, revealing large groundwater inputs from the coastal aquifers to the ocean. Multiple aerial surveys over a range of seasons and tidal stages revealed that SGD rates dynamically affect the sea surface temperature (SST) of the coastal zone. The in‐situ measurements supported that SGD has a substantial influence on the coastal water chemistry as well as SST. Our observations highlight the extent to which aerial‐based TIR mapping can serve as a powerful tool for studying SGD and other coastal processes. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

2.
In risk assessment studies it is important to determine how uncertain and imprecise knowledge should be included into the simulation and assessment models. Thus, proper evaluation of uncertainties has become a major concern in environmental and health risk assessment studies. Previously, researchers have used probability theory, more commonly Monte Carlo analysis, to incorporate uncertainty analysis in health risk assessment studies. However, in conducting probabilistic health risk assessment, risk analyst often suffers from lack of data or the presence of imperfect or incomplete knowledge about the process modeled and also the process parameters. Fuzzy set theory is a tool that has been used in propagating imperfect and incomplete information in health risk assessment studies. Such analysis result in fuzzy risks which are associated with membership functions. Since possibilistic health risk assessment studies are relatively new, standard procedures for decision-making about the acceptability of the resulting fuzzy risk with respect to a crisp standard set by the regulatory agency are not fully established. In this paper, we are providing a review of several available approaches which may be used in decision-making. These approaches involve defuzzification techniques, the possibility and the necessity measures. In this study, we also propose a new measure, the risk tolerance measure, which can be used in decision making. The risk tolerance measure provides an effective metric for evaluating the acceptability of a fuzzy risk with respect to a crisp compliance criterion. Fuzzy risks with different membership functions are evaluated with respect to a crisp compliance criterion by using the possibility, the necessity, and the risk tolerance measures and the results are discussed comparatively.  相似文献   

3.
Subsalt imaging is strongly dependent on the quality of the velocity model. However, rugose salt bodies complicate wavefield propagation and lead to subsalt multipathing, illumination gaps and shadow zones, which cannot be handled correctly by conventional traveltime‐based migration velocity analysis (MVA). We overcome these limitations by the wave‐equation MVA technique, introduced in a companion paper, and demonstrate the methodology on a realistic synthetic data set simulating a salt‐dome environment and a Gulf of Mexico data set. We model subsalt propagation using wave paths created by one‐way wavefield extrapolation. Those wave paths are much more accurate and robust than broadband rays, since they inherit the frequency dependence and multipathing of the underlying wavefield. We formulate an objective function for optimization in the image space by relating an image perturbation to a perturbation of the velocity model. The image perturbations are defined using linearized prestack residual migration, thus ensuring stability, relative to the first‐order Born approximation assumptions. Synthetic and real data examples demonstrate that wave‐equation MVA is an effective tool for subsalt velocity analysis, even when shadows and illumination gaps are present.  相似文献   

4.
The concept of intensity‐based assessment for risk‐based decision‐making is introduced. It is realized by means of the so‐called 3R method (response analysis, record selection and risk‐based decision‐making), which can be used to check the adequacy of design of a new building or of the strengthening of an existing building by performing conventional pushover analysis and dynamic analysis for only a few ground motions, which are termed characteristic ground motions. Because the objective of the method is not a precise assessment of the seismic risk, a simple decision model for risk acceptability can be introduced. The engineer can decide that the reliability of a no‐collapse requirement is sufficient when collapse is observed in the case of less than half of, for example, seven characteristic ground motions. From the theoretical point of view, it is shown that the accuracy of the method is acceptable if the non‐linear response history analyses are performed at a low percentile of limit‐state intensity, which is also proven by means of several examples of multi‐storey reinforced concrete frame buildings. The 3R method represents a compromise between the exclusive use of either pushover analysis or dynamic analysis and can be easily introduced into building codes provided that its applicability is further investigated (e.g. asymmetric structures and other performance objectives) and that the procedure for the selection of characteristic ground motions is automated and readily available to engineers (www.smartengineering.si).  相似文献   

5.
An approximate seismic risk assessment procedure for building structures, which involves pushover analysis that is performed utilizing a deterministic structural model and uncertainty analysis at the level of the equivalent SDOF model, is introduced. Such an approach is computationally significantly less demanding in comparison with procedures based on uncertainty analysis at the level of the entire structure, but still allows for explicit consideration of the effect of record‐to‐record variability and modelling uncertainties. A new feature of the proposed pushover‐based method is the so‐called probabilistic SDOF model. Herein, the proposed methodology is illustrated only for reinforced concrete (RC) frames, although it could be implemented in the case of any building structure, provided that an appropriate probabilistic SDOF model is available. An extensive parametric analysis has been performed within the scope of this study in order to develop a probabilistic SDOF model, which could be used for the seismic risk assessment of both code‐conforming and old, that is, non code‐conforming RC frames. Based on the results of risk analysis for the four selected examples, it is shown that the proposed procedure can provide conservative estimates of seismic risk with reasonable accuracy, in spite of the employed simplifications and the relatively small number of Monte Carlo simulations with Latin hypercube sampling, which are performed at the level of the SDOF model. An indication of the possible default values of dispersion measures for limit‐state intensities in the case of low to medium‐height RC frames is also presented. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

6.
This paper investigates the development of flood hazard and flood risk delineations that account for uncertainty as improvements to standard floodplain maps for coastal watersheds. Current regulatory floodplain maps for the Gulf Coastal United States present 1% flood hazards as polygon features developed using deterministic, steady‐state models that do not consider data uncertainty or natural variability of input parameters. Using the techniques presented here, a standard binary deterministic floodplain delineation is replaced with a flood inundation map showing the underlying flood hazard structure. Additionally, the hazard uncertainty is further transformed to show flood risk as a spatially distributed probable flood depth using concepts familiar to practicing engineers and software tools accepted and understood by regulators. A case study of the proposed hazard and risk assessment methodology is presented for a Gulf Coast watershed, which suggests that storm duration and stage boundary conditions are important variable parameters, whereas rainfall distribution, storm movement, and roughness coefficients contribute less variability. The floodplain with uncertainty for this coastal watershed showed the highest variability in the tidally influenced reaches and showed little variability in the inland riverine reaches. Additionally, comparison of flood hazard maps to flood risk maps shows that they are not directly correlated, as areas of high hazard do not always represent high risk. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

7.
The European Water Framework Directive requires the development of new and accurate methodologies, addressing the assessment of the physico-chemical status of transitional and coastal waters; these are considered by the Directive as the supporting elements for the final evaluation of the Ecological Quality Status.

This contribution develops new approaches in the determination of the physico-chemical status, solving some problems detected in previous contributions, i.e.: (a) fitting the classification of water bodies and typologies, by means of the stretching of the typologies, according to the natural salinity gradient of types; (b) defining reference conditions, based upon the new approach to typologies, (c) proposing accurate multivariate methodologies, in determining the physico-chemical status of the transitional and coastal waters, based upon the defined typologies and references; and (d) discussion of the results obtained by reference to methodological aspects and water quality evolution in the Basque Country, Spain (as a case-study), during the last decade.  相似文献   


8.
The highly vulnerable Pacific southwest coast of Mexico has been repeatedly affected by local, regional and remote source tsunamis. Mexico presently has no national tsunami warning system in operation. The implementation of key elements of a National Program on Tsunami Detection, Monitoring, Warning and Mitigation is in progress. For local and regional events detection and monitoring, a prototype of a robust and low cost high frequency sea-level tsunami gauge, sampling every minute and equipped with 24 hours real time transmission to the Internet, was developed and is currently in operation. Statistics allow identification of low, medium and extreme hazard categories of arriving tsunamis. These categories are used as prototypes for computer simulations of coastal flooding. A finite-difference numerical model with linear wave theory for the deep ocean propagation, and shallow water nonlinear one for the near shore and interaction with the coast, and non-fixed boundaries for flooding and recession at the coast, is used. For prevention purposes, tsunami inundation maps for several coastal communities, are being produced in this way. The case of the heavily industrialized port of Lázaro Cárdenas, located on the sand shoals of a river delta, is illustrated; including a detailed vulnerability assessment study. For public education on preparedness and awareness, printed material for children and adults has been developed and published. It is intended to extend future coverage of this program to the Mexican Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico coastal areas.  相似文献   

9.
The main coastal processes controlling water, nutrients and sediment transport are considered in the present issue, to emphasize the need for multidisciplinary approaches to achieve a proper assessment of the environmental status in coastal zones (such as the Galician area). Special emphasis has been placed upon the interpretation of local processes, within the context of a global perspective, especially for those regions with environmental properties similar to Galicia.  相似文献   

10.
This paper presents a comparison between subsurface impedance models derived from different deterministic and geostatistical seismic inversion methodologies applied to a challenging synthetic dataset. Geostatistical seismic inversion methodologies nowadays are common place in both industry and academia, contrasting with traditional deterministic seismic inversion methodologies that are becoming less used as part of the geo‐modelling workflow. While the first set of techniques allows the simultaneous inference of the best‐fit inverse model along with the spatial uncertainty of the subsurface elastic property of interest, the second family of inverse methodology has proven results in correctly predicting the subsurface elastic properties of interest with comparatively less computational cost. We present herein the results of a benchmark study performed over a realistic three‐dimensional non‐stationary synthetic dataset in order to assess the performance and convergence of different deterministic and geostatistical seismic inverse methodologies. We also compare and discuss the impact of the inversion parameterisation over the exploration of the model parameter space. The results show that the chosen seismic inversion methodology should always be dependent on the type and quantity of the available data, both seismic and well‐log, and the complexity of the geological environment versus the assumptions behind each inversion technique. The assessment of the model parameter space shows that the initial guess of traditional deterministic seismic inversion methodologies is of high importance since it will determine the location of the best‐fit inverse solution.  相似文献   

11.
Increase in temperature extremes is one of the main expected impacts of climate change, as well as one of the first signs of its occurrence. Nevertheless, results emerging from General Circulation Models, while sufficient for large scales, are not enough for forecasting local trends and, hence, the IPCC has called for local studies based on on-site data. Indeed, it is expected that climate extremes will be detected much earlier than changes in climate averages. Heat waves are among the most important and least studied climate extremes, however its occurrence has been only barely studied and even its very definition remains controversial. This paper discusses the observed changes in temperature trends and heat waves in Northwestern Mexico, one of the most vulnerable regions of the country. The climate records in two locations of the region are analyzed, including one of the cities with extreme climate in Mexico, Mexicali City in the state of Baja California and the Yaqui River basin at Sonora State using three different methodologies. Results showed clear trends on temperature increase and occurrence of heat waves in both of the study zones using the three methodologies proposed. As result, some policy making suggestion are included in order to increase the adaptability of the studied regions to climate change, particularly related with heat wave occurrence.  相似文献   

12.
The oceans have a major influence on world climate and are an important source of food, most of which comes from the coastal zones. These zones, and the traditional, sustainable, life-styles of the fishing communities that live there, are under immense and growing pressure. Urbanization, pollution, sea level rise, and the destruction of natural coast defences and fish nursery grounds are undermining sustainability. Although chemical pollution in some areas, with some substances, is falling it remains a serious problem over the world as a whole.

The United Nations Conference on the Human Environment, held at Rio de Janeiro in June 1992, recognized the need for more effective protection of the resources of the coastal seas, and a number of specific actions are set out in Agenda 21. But action is still not being taken on a scale which matches the problem. There are four probable reasons: first, the sea is still assumed to be too big to damage; second, jurisdiction is inadequate; third, serious national and international conflicts of interest remain; and fourth, economic distortions hamper sound judgement. The northern seas, which suffer less from these problems, should be demonstration areas for sound marine resource management.  相似文献   


13.
Pump‐and‐treat systems can prevent the migration of groundwater contaminants and candidate systems are typically evaluated with groundwater models. Such models should be rigorously assessed to determine predictive capabilities and numerous tools and techniques for model assessment are available. While various assessment methodologies (e.g., model calibration, uncertainty analysis, and Bayesian inference) are well‐established for groundwater modeling, this paper calls attention to an alternative assessment technique known as screening‐level sensitivity analysis (SLSA). SLSA can quickly quantify first‐order (i.e., main effects) measures of parameter influence in connection with various model outputs. Subsequent comparisons of parameter influence with respect to calibration vs. prediction outputs can suggest gaps in model structure and/or data. Thus, while SLSA has received little attention in the context of groundwater modeling and remedial system design, it can nonetheless serve as a useful and computationally efficient tool for preliminary model assessment. To illustrate the use of SLSA in the context of designing groundwater remediation systems, four SLSA techniques were applied to a hypothetical, yet realistic, pump‐and‐treat case study to determine the relative influence of six hydraulic conductivity parameters. Considered methods were: Taguchi design‐of‐experiments (TDOE); Monte Carlo statistical independence (MCSI) tests; average composite scaled sensitivities (ACSS); and elementary effects sensitivity analysis (EESA). In terms of performance, the various methods identified the same parameters as being the most influential for a given simulation output. Furthermore, results indicate that the background hydraulic conductivity is important for predicting system performance, but calibration outputs are insensitive to this parameter (KBK). The observed insensitivity is attributed to a nonphysical specified‐head boundary condition used in the model formulation which effectively “staples” head values located within the conductivity zone. Thus, potential strategies for improving model predictive capabilities include additional data collection targeting the KBK parameter and/or revision of model structure to reduce the influence of the specified head boundary.  相似文献   

14.
Pollution, habitat modification, and species migration are some of the results of human activities on natural environments which can be mitigated or compensated with proper planning. Irresponsibility or ignorance in planning coastal projects too often produces damage to natural systems which can be unpredictable and sometimes irrevocable. The specific site analyzed in this paper is the Cuautla littoral sub‐system which was originally a lagoon that diverted river water to other lagoons and estuaries, thus irrigating the Mexican Marismas Nacionales system, in the states of Nayarit and Sinaloa, Mexico. In the 1970s social and economic considerations motivated the construction of a small breaching canal from the sea to the lagoon. The subsequent growth of this channel was unforeseen and has produced an irreversible impact not only in the sub‐system but probably in the entire area of Marismas Nacionales. A lack of understanding of the present balances in the damaged system and of the impacts the changing morphology has on future change has created the need to study this area using numerical hydrodynamic simulation. The present distribution of water in the sub‐system was established and the governing processes were detected. By means of an analytical estimation of equilibrium conditions it was found that if nothing is done, the channel will continue eroding and the ecosystem will continue to degrade. Only by understanding the dramatic perturbations caused by the construction of the channel to the hydrologic and morphologic equilibriums can there be any hope of rescuing the ecosystem, including its human activities.  相似文献   

15.
The resiliency of coastal communities is imperative because these areas experience risk of damage from coastal storms as well as increasing population pressures and development. The severity of this hazard is compounded by sea level rise and a potential increase in storm intensities due to climate change. The ability of coastal communities to plan for, resist, and quickly and completely recover from severe coastal storm events and flooding is of critical importance. There is a growing interest in applying complementary and redundant approaches to reduce the flood risk of these vulnerable communities, such as incorporating natural and nature‐based features into the project planning process. However, accounting for the benefits of these nature‐based features in coastal design is still challenging. One of the natural features generally acknowledged to offer coastal protection benefits is wetlands. Using laboratory experiments of artificial vegetation as a foundation, the bounds of wave dissipation by vegetation are explored analytically and the effectiveness of wave dissipation by vegetation over large scales is investigated using the spectral wave model STWAVE. Wave heights modeled using a vegetation dissipation formulation are compared to those modeled with the current practice of representing vegetation using bottom friction, particularly the Manning formulation. The vegetation dissipation formulation reduced more wave energy than the Manning bottom friction formulation for submerged wetlands. Because the Manning formulation does not integrate vegetation properties, to achieve consistent results would require varying the Manning n coefficient to account for the spatial and temporal variation in form drag induced by the plants due to changes in plant density, diameter, and degree of plant submergence. Thus, a re‐evaluation of existing methods for assessing wave dissipation by vegetation is recommended for wider application of vegetation dissipation formulations in numerical models. Such models are critical for evaluating coastal resiliency of communities protected by wetland features. Published 2016. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.  相似文献   

16.
A brief analysis of the current situation pertaining to marine pollution prevention and management in the East Asian Seas is outlined, particularly focusing on pollution arising from both land and sea-based sources. This paper highlights the results of a Regional Programme supported by the Global Environment Facility (GEF) in addressing some of the key marine pollution management problems of the region. The Programme has made significant progress in the following areas: (a) successfully developed and tested working models on the application of integrated coastal management (ICM) in addressing land-based sources of pollution; (b) tested risk assessment and risk management methodologies for addressing pollution in the Straits of Malacca; (c) attained commendable records in the ratification of marine pollution-related conventions; (d) developed an operational modality for stronger public and private sector partnerships; (e) demonstrated the cost-effectiveness of marine pollution monitoring programs; (f) focused on capacity building at the local level, and (g) with the above achievements, it has illustrated a paradigm shift in concept, approach and methodology in addressing the mounting environmental pressure caused by increasing marine pollution loads.  相似文献   

17.
东南沿海水库下游地区基于动态模拟的洪涝风险评估   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  
我国东南沿海地区大多为一些中小流域,这些流域上游多建有水库工程,下游则为人口稠密的平原区,流域调蓄能力小,汇流时间短.同时,随着近年来城镇化快速发展,洪涝风险不断加大.因此,迫切需要开展水库下游不同暴雨重现期下的洪涝风险评估研究,以便为防洪决策提供技术支撑.为此,本文利用遥感、GIS、水文水动力学模型等相关技术方法,建立洪涝动态模拟模型来评估洪涝危险性;采用层次分析法和因子叠加法,从洪涝危险性和洪涝易损性两方面开展洪涝风险综合评估分析.研究表明,通过多学科与多技术手段相结合方法,来模拟预测不同暴雨重现期洪水动态淹没过程,再结合相关社会经济属性,可以有效地评估研究区洪涝灾害的风险,从而为水库调度及流域防洪减灾提供有力支撑.  相似文献   

18.
The majority of bridge infrastructures in Italy were built in the 1960s and ‘70s without any specific seismic provision being made. As a consequence, it is expected that these bridges would be highly vulnerable if subjected to a significant seismic event. Given this background, it is natural that the rapid and accurate assessment of economic losses incurred to the bridge infrastructure as a result of such an event could play a crucial role in emergency management in the immediate aftermath of an earthquake. Focusing on the infrastructure system of highway bridges in the Campania region in Italy, this paper demonstrates how both state-of-the-art methodologies in portfolio loss assessment and the available data can be used to assess the probability distribution of the repair costs incurred due to the 1980 Irpinia earthquake. Formulating a probabilistic loss assessment for a portfolio of bridges as a standard Monte Carlo simulation problem helps to resolve the spatial risk integral efficiently. One of the specific features of this case study is the use of statistical methods for updating models of: (a) ground motion predictions, (b) vulnerability/fragility and (c) exposure/costs, based on the available data. It has been observed that alternative hypotheses concerning the ground motion correlation structure can significantly affect the distribution of direct economic losses. Furthermore, updating the ground motion prediction based on available recordings may significantly reduce the dispersion in the estimate of the direct economic losses.  相似文献   

19.
Probabilistic seismic risk assessment for spatially distributed lifelines is less straightforward than for individual structures. While procedures such as the ‘PEER framework’ have been developed for risk assessment of individual structures, these are not easily applicable to distributed lifeline systems, due to difficulties in describing ground‐motion intensity (e.g. spectral acceleration) over a region (in contrast to ground‐motion intensity at a single site, which is easily quantified using Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis), and since the link between the ground‐motion intensities and lifeline performance is usually not available in closed form. As a result, Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) and its variants are well suited for characterizing ground motions and computing resulting losses to lifelines. This paper proposes a simulation‐based framework for developing a small but stochastically representative catalog of earthquake ground‐motion intensity maps that can be used for lifeline risk assessment. In this framework, Importance Sampling is used to preferentially sample ‘important’ ground‐motion intensity maps, and K‐Means Clustering is used to identify and combine redundant maps in order to obtain a small catalog. The effects of sampling and clustering are accounted for through a weighting on each remaining map, so that the resulting catalog is still a probabilistically correct representation. The feasibility of the proposed simulation framework is illustrated by using it to assess the seismic risk of a simplified model of the San Francisco Bay Area transportation network. A catalog of just 150 intensity maps is generated to represent hazard at 1038 sites from 10 regional fault segments causing earthquakes with magnitudes between five and eight. The risk estimates obtained using these maps are consistent with those obtained using conventional MCS utilizing many orders of magnitudes more ground‐motion intensity maps. Therefore, the proposed technique can be used to drastically reduce the computational expense of a simulation‐based risk assessment, without compromising the accuracy of the risk estimates. This will facilitate computationally intensive risk analysis of systems such as transportation networks. Finally, the study shows that the uncertainties in the ground‐motion intensities and the spatial correlations between ground‐motion intensities at various sites must be modeled in order to obtain unbiased estimates of lifeline risk. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

20.
Sea levels are expected to rise as a result of global temperature increases, one implication of which is the potential exacerbation of sea water intrusion into coastal aquifers. Given that approximately 70% of the world's population resides in coastal regions, it is imperative to understand the interaction between fresh groundwater and sea water intrusion in order to best manage available resources. For this study, controlled investigation has been carried out concerning the temporal variation in sea water intrusion as a result of rising sea levels. A series of fixed inland head two‐dimensional sea water intrusion models were developed with SEAWAT in order to assess the impact of rising sea levels on the transient migration of saline intrusion in coastal aquifers under a range of hydrogeological property conditions. A wide range of responses were observed for typical hydrogeological parameter values. Systems with a high ratio of hydraulic conductivity to recharge and high effective porosity lagged behind the equilibrium sea water toe positions during sea‐level rise, often by many hundreds of meters, and frequently taking several centuries to equilibrate following a cease in sea‐level rise. Systems with a low ratio of hydraulic conductivity to recharge and low effective porosity did not develop such a large degree of disequilibrium and generally stabilized within decades following a cease in sea‐level rise. This study provides qualitative initial estimates for the expected rate of intrusion and predicted degree of disequilibrium generated by sea‐level rise for a range of hydrogeological parameter values.  相似文献   

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