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1.
Field Survey of the 27 February 2010 Chile Tsunami   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
On 27 February 2010, a magnitude M w?=?8.8 earthquake occurred off the coast of Chile??s Maule region causing substantial damage and loss of life. Ancestral tsunami knowledge from the 1960 event combined with education and evacuation exercises prompted most coastal residents to spontaneously evacuate after the earthquake. Many of the tsunami victims were tourists in coastal campgrounds. The international tsunami survey team (ITST) was deployed within days of the event and surveyed 800?km of coastline from Quintero to Mehuín and the Pacific Islands of Santa María, Mocha, Juan Fernández Archipelago, and Rapa Nui (Easter). The collected survey data include more than 400 tsunami flow depth, runup and coastal uplift measurements. The tsunami peaked with a localized runup of 29?m on a coastal bluff at Constitución. The observed runup distributions exhibit significant variations on local and regional scales. Observations from the 2010 and 1960 Chile tsunamis are compared.  相似文献   

2.
In the last 15 years there have been 16 tsunami events recorded at tide stations on the Pacific Coast of Canada. Eleven of these events were from distant sources covering almost all regions of the Pacific, as well as the December 26, 2004 Sumatra tsunami in the Indian Ocean. Three tsunamis were generated by local or regional earthquakes and two were meteorological tsunamis. The earliest four events, which occurred in the period 1994–1996, were recorded on analogue recorders; these tsunami records were recently re-examined, digitized and thoroughly analysed. The other 12 tsunami events were recorded using digital high-quality instruments, with 1-min sampling interval, installed on the coast of British Columbia (B.C.) in 1998. All 16 tsunami events were recorded at Tofino on the outer B.C. coast, and some of the tsunamis were recorded at eight or more stations. The tide station at Tofino has been in operation for 100 years and these recent observations add to the dataset of tsunami events compiled previously by S.O. Wigen (1983) for the period 1906–1980. For each of the tsunami records statistical analysis was carried out to determine essential tsunami characteristics for all events (arrival times, maximum amplitudes, frequencies and wave-train structure). The analysis of the records indicated that significant background noise at Langara, a key northern B.C. Tsunami Warning station located near the northern end of the Queen Charlotte Islands, creates serious problems in detecting tsunami waves. That station has now been moved to a new location with better tsunami response. The number of tsunami events observed in the past 15 years also justified re-establishing a tide gauge at Port Alberni, where large tsunami wave amplitudes were measured in March 1964. The two meteorological events are the first ever recorded on the B.C. coast. Also, there have been landslide generated tsunami events which, although not recorded on any coastal tide gauges, demonstrate, along with the recent investigation of a historical catastrophic event, the significant risk that landslide generated tsunami pose to coastal and inland regions of B.C.  相似文献   

3.
The present study focuses on evaluation of the maximum and minimum water levels caused by tsunamis as risk factors for operation and management at nuclear power facilities along the coastal area of Japan. Tsunamis generated by submarine earthquakes are examined, basing literature reviews and databases of information on historical tsunami events and run-up heights. For simulation of water level along the coast, a numerical calculation system should be designed with computational regions covering a particular site. Also the calculation system should be verified by comparison of historical and calculated tsunami heights. At the beginning of the tsunami assessment, the standard faults, their locations, mechanisms and maximum magnitudes should be carefully estimated by considering historical earthquake-induced tsunamis and seismo-tectonics at each area. Secondly, the range of errors in the model parameters should be considered since earthquakes and tsunamis are natural phenomena that involve natural variability as well as errors in estimating parameters. For these reasons, uncertainty-induced errors should be taken into account in the process of tsunami assessment with parametric study of the tsunami source model. The element tsunamis calculated by the standard fault models with the errors would be given for the design. Then, the design tsunami can be selected among the element tsunamis with the most significant impact, maximum and minimum water levels, on the site, bearing in mind the possible errors in the numerical calculation system. Finally, the design tsunami is verified by comparison with the run-up heights of historical tsunamis, ensuring that the design tsunami is selected as the highest of all historical and possible future tsunamis at the site.  相似文献   

4.
Regional source tsunamis pose a potentially devastating hazard to communities and infrastructure on the New Zealand coast. But major events are very uncommon. This dichotomy of infrequent but potentially devastating hazards makes realistic assessment of the risk challenging. Here, we describe a method to determine a probabilistic assessment of the tsunami hazard by regional source tsunamis with an “Average Recurrence Interval” of 2,500-years. The method is applied to the east Auckland region of New Zealand. From an assessment of potential regional tsunamigenic events over 100,000 years, the inundation of the Auckland region from the worst 100 events is modelled using a hydrodynamic model and probabilistic inundation depths on a 2,500-year time scale were determined. Tidal effects on the potential inundation were included by coupling the predicted wave heights with the probability density function of tidal heights at the inundation site. Results show that the more exposed northern section of the east coast and outer islands in the Hauraki Gulf face the greatest hazard from regional tsunamis in the Auckland region. Incorporating tidal effects into predictions of inundation reduced the predicted hazard compared to modelling all the tsunamis arriving at high tide giving a more accurate hazard assessment on the specified time scale. This study presents the first probabilistic analysis of dynamic modelling of tsunami inundation for the New Zealand coast and as such provides the most comprehensive assessment of tsunami inundation of the Auckland region from regional source tsunamis available to date.  相似文献   

5.
Regional source tsunamis represent a potentially devastating threat to coastal communities in New Zealand, yet are infrequent events for which little historical information is available. It is therefore essential to develop robust methods for quantitatively estimating the hazards posed, so that effective mitigation measures can be implemented. We develop a probabilistic model for the tsunami hazard posed to the Auckland region of New Zealand from the Kermadec Trench and the southern New Hebrides Trench subduction zones. An innovative feature of our model is the systematic analysis of uncertainty regarding the magnitude-frequency distribution of earthquakes in the source regions. The methodology is first used to estimate the tsunami hazard at the coastline, and then used to produce a set of scenarios that can be applied to produce probabilistic maps of tsunami inundation for the study region; the production of these maps is described in part II. We find that the 2,500 year return period regional source tsunami hazard for the densely populated east coast of Auckland is dominated by events originating in the Kermadec Trench, while the equivalent hazard to the sparsely populated west coast is approximately equally due to events on the Kermadec Trench and the southern New Hebrides Trench.  相似文献   

6.
Gulf of Mexico (GOM) coasts have been included in the U.S. Tsunami Warning System since 2005. While the tsunami risk for the GOM is low, tsunamis generated by local submarine landslides pose the greatest potential threat, as evidenced by several large ancient submarine mass failures identified in the northern GOM basin. Given the lack of significant historical tsunami evidence in the GOM, the potential threat of landslide tsunamis in this region is assessed from a worst-case scenario perspective based on a set of events including the large ancient failures and most likely extreme events determined by a probabilistic approach. Since tsunamis are not well-understood along the Gulf Coast, we investigate tsunami inundation referenced to category-specific hurricane storm surge levels, which are relatively well established along the Gulf Coast, in order to provide information for assessing the potential threat of tsunamis which is more understandable and accessible to emergency managers. Based on tsunami inundation studies prepared for the communities of South Padre Island, TX, Galveston, TX, Mobile, AL, Panama City, FL, and Tampa, FL, we identify regional trends of tsunami inundation in terms of modeled storm surge inundation. The general trends indicate that tsunami inundation can well exceed the level of storm surge from major hurricanes in open beachfront and barrier island regions, while more interior areas are less threatened. Such information can be used to better prepare for tsunami events as well as provide a preliminary estimate of tsunami hazard in locations where detailed tsunami inundation studies have not been completed.  相似文献   

7.
Operational prediction of near-field tsunamis in all existing Tsunami Warning Systems (TWSs) is based on fast determination of the position and size of submarine earthquakes. Exceedance of earthquake magnitude above some established threshold value, which can vary over different tsunamigenic zones, results in issuing a warning signal. Usually, a warning message has several (from 2 to 5) grades reflecting the degree of tsunami danger and sometimes contains expected wave heights at the coast. Current operational methodology is based on two main assumptions: (1) submarine earthquakes above some threshold magnitude can generate dangerous tsunamis and (2) the height of a resultant tsunami is, in general, proportional to the earthquake magnitude. While both assumptions are physically reasonable and generally correct, statistics of issued warnings are far from being satisfactory. For the last 55 years, up to 75% of warnings for regional tsunamis have turned out to be false, while each TWS has had at least a few cases of missing dangerous tsunamis. This paper presents the results of investigating the actual dependence of tsunami intensity on earthquake magnitude as it can be retrieved from historical observations and discusses the degree of correspondence of the above assumptions to real observations. Tsunami intensity, based on the Soloviev-Imamura scale is used as a measure of tsunami “size”. Its correlation with the M s and M w magnitudes is investigated based on historical data available for the instrumental period of observations (from 1900 to present).  相似文献   

8.
在东海潜在震源区冲绳海槽假定了五个震源点,根据Steven地震海啸地震参数经验值作为初始条件,分别考虑6.5、7.0、7.5、8.0、8.5、9.0级地震条件下的30个震例,采用数值模拟的方法,对海啸在东海传播过程进行情境分析,特别是对上海沿岸地区可能会遭受的海啸灾害做了较为精细的研究.结果发现:小于8.0级的震例对上海地区几乎不会造成影响;8.0级震例只有最北端震源点震例会对上海地区有明显影响;8.5级以及9.0级震级基本上均会对上海沿岸地区造成较大的影响.特别是冲绳海槽北段9.0级震例可能会对上海沿岸局部地区造成危害,最大波高可达3.9m.  相似文献   

9.
Tide gauge data collected from Sri Lanka (three stations) and Western Australia (eleven stations) during the Indian Ocean tsunamis, which occurred in December 2004, March 2005, July 2006, and September 2007, and incorporated five tsunamis, were examined to determine tsunami behaviour during these events. During the December 2004 tsunami, maximum wave heights of 3.87 m and 1.75 m were recorded at Colombo (Sri Lanka) and Bunbury (Western Australia), respectively. The results indicated that although the relative magnitudes of the tsunamis varied, the tsunami behaviour at each station was similar. This was due to the effect of the local and regional topography. At all tide gauges, the spectral energy corresponding to periods between 20 and 85 minutes increased during the tsunami. The sea-level data obtained from the west and south coasts of Sri Lanka (Colombo and Kirinda) indicated the importance of wave reflections from the Maldives Island chain, which produced the maximum wave two to three hours after the arrival of the first wave. In contrast, Trincomalee on the east coast did not show evidence of a reflected wave. Similarly, along the west coast of Australia, the highest waves occurred 15 hours after the arrival of the first wave. Here, based on travel times, we postulated that the waves were reflected from the Mascarene Ridge and/or the Island of Madagascar. Reflected waves were not present in the 2006 tsunami, where the primary waves propagated away from topographic features. One of the main influences of the tsunami was to set up oscillations at the local resonance frequency. Because Sri Lanka and Western Australia have relatively straight coastlines, these oscillations were related to the fundamental period of the shelf oscillation. For Colombo, this corresponded to 75-minute period, whereas in Geraldton and Busselton (Australia), the four-hour period was most prominent; at Jurien Bay and Fremantle, the resonance period was 2.7 hours.  相似文献   

10.
Based on the tsunami data in the Central American region, the regional characteristic of tsunami magnitude scales is discussed in relation to earthquake magnitudes during the period from 1900 to 1993. Tsunami magnitudes on the Imamura-Iida scale of the 1985 Mexico and 1992 Nicaragua tsunamis are determined to bem=2.5, judging from the tsunami height-distance diagram. The magnitude values of the Central American tsunamis are relatively small compared to earthquakes with similar size in other regions. However, there are a few large tsunamis generated by low-frequency earthquakes such as the 1992 Nicaragua earthquake. Inundation heights of these unusual tsunamis are about 10 times higher than those of normal tsunamis for the same earthquake magnitude (M s =6.9–7.2). The Central American tsunamis having magnitudem>1 have been observed by the Japanese tide stations, but the effect of directivity toward Japan is very small compared to that of the South American tsunamis.  相似文献   

11.
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12.
The Pacific is well known for producing tsunamis, and events such as the 2011 Tōhoku-oki, Japan disaster demonstrate the vulnerability of coastal communities. We review what is known about the current state of tsunami risk management for Pacific Island countries and territories (PICTs), identify the issues and challenges associated with affecting meaningful tsunami disaster risk reduction (DRR) efforts and outline strategies and possible ways forward. Small island states are scattered across the vast Pacific region and these states have to varying degrees been affected by not only large tsunamis originating in circum-Pacific subduction zones, but also more regionally devastating events. Having outlined and described what is meant by the risk management process, the various problems associated with our current understanding of this process are examined. The poorly understood hazard related to local, regional and distant sources is investigated and the dominant focus on seismic events at the expense of other tsunami source types is noted. We reflect on the challenges of undertaking numerical modelling from generation to inundation and specifically detail the problems as they relate to PICTs. This is followed by an exploration of the challenges associated with mapping exposure and estimating vulnerability in low-lying coastal areas. The latter part of the paper is devoted to exploring what mitigation of the tsunami risk can look like and draw upon good practice cases as exemplars of the actions that can be taken from the local to regional level. Importantly, given the diversity of PICTs, no one approach will suit all places. The paper closes by making a series of recommendations to assist PICTs and the wider tsunami research community in thinking through improvements to their tsunami risk management processes and the research that can underpin these efforts.  相似文献   

13.
--A modified and corrected version of the viscous slide model of Jiang and LeBlond (1994) is used to assess the tsunami risk associated with hypothetical underwater slope failures in two coastal areas of British Columbia having potentially unstable sediment deposits: (a) Malaspina Strait, separating the mainland coast and Texada Island in the central Strait of Georgia; and (b) Roberts Bank on the foreslope of the Fraser River Delta in the southern Strait of Georgia. The intent of this study is to demonstrate the capability of the model for tsunami risk assessment and to improve upon previous studies of tsunami risk in the region based on reasonable submarine landslide scenarios. The potential risk from tsunamis associated with slide failures has been examined, but the likelihood of failure events themselves was not considered. For the Malaspina Strait scenarios, simulated tsunamis are generated by failure of a lobe of perched sediment situ ated on the slope of eastern Texada Island. Failure as a flow slide of the estimated 1,250,000 m3 of sediment generates wave troughs reaching ц.9 m and trough-to-crest heights of 6 to 8 m along the coast of Texada Island. At Cape Cockburn, on the opposite side of the strait, wave heights of 1.5 to 2.0 m are produced. For Roberts Bank, simulated waves are examined for two separate failure scenarios. The larger slide (Case 1) involves the failure of a sediment lobe with lateral dimensions of 7 2 3 km2 and volume of 0.75 km3 while the smaller slide (Case 2) fails a sediment lobe with dimensions of 4 2 2.6 km2 and volume of 0.23 km3. Computations were made both for high (+3 m) and low (х m) tide conditions. For both failure volumes, maximum wave amplitudes (up to 18 m for Case 1 and 8 m for Case 2) occur on the coasts of Mayne and Galiano Islands, opposite the source area. Wave amplitudes are much smaller (1 to 4 m) on the mainl and coast because of the reflection of the initial waves from Roberts Bank. Additional numerical experiments were conducted for both regions to estimate the sensitivity of the computed tsunami wave heights to input parameters, such as slide viscosity, bulk density, and slide position.  相似文献   

14.
Japan’s 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake and the accompanying tsunami have reminded us of the potential tsunami hazards from the Manila and Ryukyu trenches to the South China and East China Seas. Statistics of historical seismic records from nearly the last 4 decades have shown that major earthquakes do not necessarily agree with the local Gutenberg-Richter relationship. The probability of a mega-earthquake may be higher than we have previously estimated. Furthermore, we noted that the percentages of tsunami-associated earthquakes are much higher in major events, and the earthquakes with magnitudes equal to or greater than 8.8 have all triggered tsunamis in the past approximately 100 years. We will emphasize the importance of a thorough study of possible tsunami scenarios for hazard mitigation. We focus on several hypothetical earthquake-induced tsunamis caused by M w 8.8 events along the Manila and Ryukyu trenches. We carried out numerical simulations based on shallow-water equations (SWE) to predict the tsunami dynamics in the South China and East China Seas. By analyzing the computed results we found that the height of the potential surge in China’s coastal area caused by earthquake-induced tsunamis may reach a couple of meters high. Our preliminary results show that tsunamis generated in the Manila and Ryukyu trenches could pose a significant threat to Chinese coastal cities such as Shanghai, Hong Kong and Macao. However, we did not find the highest tsunami wave at Taiwan, partially because it lies right on the extension of an assumed fault line. Furthermore, we put forward a multi-scale model with higher resolution, which enabled us to investigate the edge waves diffracted around Taiwan Island with a closer view.  相似文献   

15.
In response to the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, the United States began a careful review and strengthening of its programs aimed at reducing the consequences of tsunamis. Several reports and calls to action were drafted, including the Tsunami Warning and Education Act (Public Law 109–424) signed into law by the President in December 2006. NOAA’s National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) and co-located World Data Center for Geophysics and Marine Geology (WDC-GMG) maintain a national and international tsunami data archive that fulfills part of the P.L. 109-424. The NGDC/WDC-GMG long-term tsunami data archive has expanded from the original global historical event databases and damage photo collection, to include tsunami deposits, coastal water-level data, DART? buoy data, and high-resolution coastal DEMs. These data are used to validate models, provide guidance to warning centers, develop tsunami hazard assessments, and educate the public about the risks from tsunamis. In this paper we discuss current steps and future actions to be taken by NGDC/WDC-GMG to support tsunami hazard mitigation research, to ultimately help save lives and improve the resiliency of coastal communities.  相似文献   

16.
The tsunami generated by the 1 November, 1755 earthquake off the coast of Portugal affected mainly the coastlines of the Iberian Peninsula and Northwest Morocco, but was also observed in some places along the North Atlantic coasts. To determine whether the event could have effected the French coastline, we conducted a study to search for signs of the tsunami in historical records from all tide gauge stations off the French Atlantic coast during the twentieth century, specifically for the 28 February, 1969 and the 26 May, 1975 tsunamis that were recorded by the Portuguese tide gauge network. Because many recordings are available in La Rochelle (located on the southwest coast of France), we focused our study on this harbor. The analysis of the tide gauge data shows no evidence for tsunamis in La Rochelle, neither in 1969 nor in 1975. To confirm this lack of tsunami signals, we used nonlinear, shallow water equations to compute the tsunami propagation to the French Atlantic coastline for both 1969 and 1975 events. Results obtained from these simulations confirm otherwise unnoticeable wave amplitudes at La Rochelle harbor. In a second step, tsunamis from three different scenarios for the 1755 earthquake were modeled to estimate the impact of such a tsunami on the French Atlantic coast, with a focus on La Rochelle harbor. A comparison of the functions of tide configuration was made in order to analyse the difference in impact. The results show that, while the harbor is poorly impacted, several areas (western part of the island of Ré and northern coast of the island of Oléron) may have experienced a moderate impact from 0.5 to 1 m, especially since the tide was high at the time of arrival, possibly causing local inundations in lowland areas.  相似文献   

17.
The slip distribution and seismic moment of the 2010 and 1960 Chilean earthquakes were estimated from tsunami and coastal geodetic data. These two earthquakes generated transoceanic tsunamis, and the waveforms were recorded around the Pacific Ocean. In addition, coseismic coastal uplift and subsidence were measured around the source areas. For the 27 February 2010 Maule earthquake, inversion of the tsunami waveforms recorded at nearby coastal tide gauge and Deep Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART) stations combined with coastal geodetic data suggest two asperities: a northern one beneath the coast of Constitucion and a southern one around the Arauco Peninsula. The total fault length is approximately 400 km with seismic moment of 1.7 × 1022 Nm (Mw 8.8). The offshore DART tsunami waveforms require fault slips beneath the coasts, but the exact locations are better estimated by coastal geodetic data. The 22 May 1960 earthquake produced very large, ~30 m, slip off Valdivia. Joint inversion of tsunami waveforms, at tide gauge stations in South America, with coastal geodetic and leveling data shows total fault length of ~800 km and seismic moment of 7.2 × 1022 Nm (Mw 9.2). The seismic moment estimated from tsunami or joint inversion is similar to previous estimates from geodetic data, but much smaller than the results from seismic data analysis.  相似文献   

18.
The catastrophic effects of the March 11, 2011 tsunami on the most affected parts of the northeastern Honshu coast are considered. An analysis of topographic maps and evidences of paleotsunamis and the tsunamis occurring in historical time and instrumental period clearly show the high probability of tsunami occurrence and the high vulnerability of the territory to them. We concluded that the principal factors of the tsunami’s catastrophic effects were land use and buildings without taking into account the factors indicated. The main features determining coast vulnerability to tsunamis are considered.  相似文献   

19.
Re-evaluation of magnitude-geographical criterion of tsunami prediction is one of the main directions of improvement of the tsunami warning service acting on the coast of the Russian Far East. The main directions of this work are a careful analysis of the tsunami warnings issued by the service during the period of its operation (since 1958), determining of reasons for false alarms and missed warnings, delineation of tsunamigenic areas threatening the Far East coast of Russia, optimal selection of magnitude thresholds for each tsunamigenic zone, evaluation of the expected ratio between real/missed/false warnings, determination of the degree of influence of other source parameters (focus depth, source mechanism), and evaluation of probability of occurrence for nonseismic tsunamis. The present paper considers the results of operations for prediction of tsunamis from submarine earthquakes that occurred in the Kuril-Kamchatka zone, Sea of Japan, and Sea of Okhotsk during the last 52 years.  相似文献   

20.
-- A study of 1983 and 1993 tsunami events in the East (Japan) Sea using multigrid dynamically-interfaced finite difference models was performed to produce detailed features of coastal inundations along the eastern coast of Korea. The computational domain is composed of several subregions with different grid sizes connected in parallel or inclined directions. The innermost subregion represents the coastal alignment reasonably well and has a grid size of about 30 meters. Numerical simulations have been performed in the framework of shallow-water equations (linear, as well as nonlinear) over the plane or spherical coordinate system, depending on the dimensions of the subregion. Results of simulations show the general agreements with the observed data of the runup height for both tsunamis. The evolution of the distribution function of tsunami heights is studied numerically and it shows a tendency to the log-normal curve for a long distance from the source.  相似文献   

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