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Assessing hydrological model predictive uncertainty using stochastically generated geological models 
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下载免费PDF全文 In distributed and coupled surface water–groundwater modelling, the uncertainty from the geological structure is unaccounted for if only one deterministic geological model is used. In the present study, the geological structural uncertainty is represented by multiple, stochastically generated geological models, which are used to develop hydrological model ensembles for the Norsminde catchment in Denmark. The geological models have been constructed using two types of field data, airborne geophysical data and borehole well log data. The use of airborne geophysical data in constructing stochastic geological models and followed by the application of such models to assess hydrological simulation uncertainty for both surface water and groundwater have not been previously studied. The results show that the hydrological ensemble based on geophysical data has a lower level of simulation uncertainty, but the ensemble based on borehole data is able to encapsulate more observation points for stream discharge simulation. The groundwater simulations are in general more sensitive to the changes in the geological structure than the stream discharge simulations, and in the deeper groundwater layers, there are larger variations between simulations within an ensemble than in the upper layers. The relationship between hydrological prediction uncertainties measured as the spread within the hydrological ensembles and the spatial aggregation scale of simulation results has been analysed using a representative elementary scale concept. The results show a clear increase of prediction uncertainty as the spatial scale decreases. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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覆盖区寻找隐伏矿成为当前找矿工作的热点问题,为了能在地表地质信息少的黄土覆盖区,寻找隐伏的有经济价值的矿床,本文以沙坡岭钼矿为例,综合应用r能谱、高精度磁法、高密度电法三种地球物理方法进行找矿勘探,辅以偏提取化探法对地球物理异常进行约束,结合地质资料进行解译,预测了有利的成矿区域,通过钻探得到了有效验证,初步建立了黄土覆盖区钼矿的综合地球物理找矿模式,为下一步的综合勘探打下了基础. 相似文献
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本文在收集研究长江中下游地区主要铜矿床的发现和勘查过程、矿床地质特征、物化探异常特征、勘查方法等大量资料的基础上,对矿体特征进行了归纳,提出了将长江中下游主要铜矿体划分为二型四式的矿体类型划分方案。分别建立了四种类型铜矿体的找矿模型,并建立了铜矿体综合找矿模型。 相似文献
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本文给出了三十年来各种地球物理方法在我国普查和勘探金属矿工作中的应用。叙述了一些成功和不成功的事例、经验和教训。 根据我国金属矿地区的地形、地质和成矿条件,提出今后技术发展的方向,强调对新方法的基本研究。 相似文献
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本文介绍了朱家冲矿区地质背景和成矿地质、地球物理特征,根据现有地质物探资料,并与铜陵地区对比,对朱家冲地区成矿条件、赋矿层位、找矿空间及靶区进行了分析,预测朱家冲地区层控矽卡岩型铜矿找矿具有一定潜力。 相似文献
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Summary of technology for a comprehensive geophysical exploration of gold mine in North China Craton
《中国科学:地球科学(英文版)》2021,(9)
The North China Craton is the oldest continental block, and has suffered from large-scale lithospheric thinning and destruction, which in turn led to gold deposits in northern China. The decratonic gold deposits in the North China Craton became the most important gold deposits in China, and geophysical methods are key means to detect and discover gold deposits there. In this paper, based on the geological and petrophysical characteristics of the North China Craton, the geological model of the decratonic gold deposits is transformed into a geophysical model. At present, two methods of geophysical exploration of decratonic gold deposits are in use: rapid and efficient exploration on the scale of the ore concentration area, and large depth exploration on the scale of the deposit area. In detail, the airborne electromagnetic,magnetic and gravity methods are used to detect the shallow(1,500 m) anomaly area on the scale of the ore concentration area.Through the ground-controlled source electromagnetic and ground magnetotelluric methods, explorations for targets at significant depth(5,000 m) are carried out in the mining area. Then, taking the Liaodong ore concentration area as an example,geophysical methods are used to discover two prospecting areas around the Jianshanzi Fault in the Qingchengzi ore concentration area, Baiyun-Xiaotongjiapuzi deep prospecting area, and Qingchengzi deep prospecting area. Next, three prospecting areas are delineated around the Jixingou Fault in the Wulong mining area, Wulong deep prospecting area, Weishagou deep prospecting area, and Chang'an deep prospecting area. The anomalies in the ore concentration area and mining area are revealed by means of three-dimensional exploration methods, thereby providing technical support for the exploration of metal minerals such as decratonic gold deposits. 相似文献
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Walter A. Illman 《Ground water》2014,52(5):659-684
Fractured rocks have presented formidable challenges for accurately predicting groundwater flow and contaminant transport. This is mainly due to our difficulty in mapping the fracture‐rock matrix system, their hydraulic properties and connectivity at resolutions that are meaningful for groundwater modeling. Over the last several decades, considerable effort has gone into creating maps of subsurface heterogeneity in hydraulic conductivity (K) and specific storage (Ss) of fractured rocks. Developed methods include kriging, stochastic simulation, stochastic inverse modeling, and hydraulic tomography. In this article, I review the evolution of various heterogeneity mapping approaches and contend that hydraulic tomography, a recently developed aquifer characterization technique for unconsolidated deposits, is also a promising approach in yielding robust maps (or tomograms) of K and Ss heterogeneity for fractured rocks. While hydraulic tomography has recently been shown to be a robust technique, the resolution of the K and Ss tomograms mainly depends on the density of pumping and monitoring locations and the quality of data. The resolution will be improved through the development of new devices for higher density monitoring of pressure responses at discrete intervals in boreholes and potentially through the integration of other data from single‐hole tests, borehole flowmeter profiling, and tracer tests. Other data from temperature and geophysical surveys as well as geological investigations may improve the accuracy of the maps, but more research is needed. Technological advances will undoubtedly lead to more accurate maps. However, more effort should go into evaluating these maps so that one can gain more confidence in their reliability. 相似文献
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The methods of anomaly transformations considered are based on a system of combined analysis of the geophysical field and a priori) information on the structure of a geological object. The methods involve calculation of a transformative polynomial (describing geophysical noise) which makes it possible to separate the residual field component related to the geological characteristic under study in a correlatively optimal way. The structure of the transformative polynomial is determined by the nature of the geophysical noise that is eliminated by the field transformation. Various correlation methods of anomaly transformations arise, depending on the structure of the transformative polynomial chosen. By way of example, the correlation method employed for separating the geophysical anomalies is shown to be highly effective in investigating the local geological structure. 相似文献
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Jean-Pierre Lorand Olivier Alard Ambre Luguet 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》2010,289(1-2):298-310
Highly siderophile elements (Platinum-group elements, Au and Re) are currently assumed to reside inside base metal sulfides (BMS) in the convecting upper mantle. However, fertile lherzolites sampled by Pyrenean orogenic peridotite massifs are unexpectedly rich in 0.5–3 µm large micronuggets of platinum-group minerals (PGM). Among those, sulfides from the laurite-erlichmanite series (Ru, Os(Ir)S(As)2), Pt–Ir–Os alloys and Pt–Pd–Te–Bi phases (moncheite–merenskyite) are predominant. Not only the BMS phases but also the PGM micronuggets must be taken into account in calculation of the PGE budget of orogenic fertile lherzolites. Laurite is a good candidate for equilibrating the whole-rock budget of Os, Ir and Ru while accounting for supra-chondritic Ru/IrN. Textural relationships between PGMs and BMS highlight heterogeneous mixing between refractory PGMs (laurite/Pt–Ir–Os alloys) inherited from ancient refractory lithospheric mantle and late-magmatic metasomatic sulfides precipitated from tholeiitic melts. “Low-temperature” PGMs, especially Pt–Pd bismuthotellurides should be added to the list of mineral indicators of lithosphere refertilization process. Now disseminated within fertile lherzolites, “lithospheric“ PGMs likely account for local preservation of ancient Os model ages (up to 2 Ga) detected in BMS by in-situ isotopic analyses. These PGMs also question the reliability of orogenic lherzolites for estimating the PGE signature of the Primitive Silicate Earth. 相似文献
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深部矿产资源勘探是未来勘探的必然趋势.地震作用下的横断层地质构造对金属矿、 能源矿等矿产资源的分布具有重要影响,拥有较大的找矿潜力.对于地震作用下横断层地质等条件复杂的场合,采用高密度电阻率法、 激发极化法和可控源音频大地电磁法等单一电法勘探可能存在找矿效果不佳的问题,有必要研究更为有效的找矿技术方法.首先阐述了激发极化法、CSAMT法等电法勘探的基本内容和各自优缺点;然后,在分析地震作用下横断层地质特征的基础上,研究并提出了基于激发极化法和CSAMT的综合找矿法.基于激发极化法和CSAMT的综合找矿法能有效反映地下地电差异,在大深度范围有效反应地电断面电阻、 极化率参数,互相校正验证;结合已有地质物探资料,推断地下异常,提高横断层的金属矿产勘探效率和效果.将本文的研究成果应用于某横断层地质区域的金属矿勘探实践,取得了良好的勘探效果.实践表明本文所提方法有效、 可行. 相似文献
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A physics‐based numerical approach is used to characterize earthquake ground motion due to induced seismicity in the Groningen gas field and to improve empirical ground motion models for seismic hazard and risk assessment. To this end, a large‐scale (20 km × 20 km) heterogeneous 3D seismic wave propagation model for the Groningen area is constructed, based on the significant bulk of available geological, geophysical, geotechnical, and seismological data. Results of physics‐based numerical simulations are validated against the ground motion recordings of the January 8, 2018, ML 3.4 Zeerijp earthquake. Taking advantage of suitable models of slip time functions at the seismic source and of the detailed geophysical model, the numerical simulations are found to reproduce accurately the observed features of ground motions at epicentral distances less than 10 km, in a broad frequency range, up to about 8 Hz. A sensitivity analysis is also addressed to discuss the impact of 3D underground geological features, the stochastic variability of seismic velocities and the frequency dependence of the quality factor. Amongst others, results point out some key features related to 3D seismic wave propagation, such as the magnitude and distance dependence of site amplification functions, that may be relevant to the improvement of the empirical models for earthquake ground motion prediction. 相似文献
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Geophysical methods can be applied to investigate the harmful effect of man's activities on the environment: the study of specific electrical resistivities and natural electric fields of filtrational origin makes it possible to control the penetration of exogenic pollutants into soil as well as desalinization and secondary salinization of soils; electrometric and seismometric methods allow to observe the groundwater level near water reservoirs thus evaluating the harmful effect of backing up natural groundwater flow; contrasting properties of bedrocks and rocks in a landslide body permit application of seismic and electrical prospecting methods. Observation of the changes in specific electrical resistivities with time on the slopes of quarries is an effective method of assessing slope stability and predicting landslide hazard. Mining activities, groundwater pumping, and oil extraction are the main causes of endogenic pollution of geological medium; surface and borehole geophysical methods make it possible to assess vertical and horizontal displacements of the interfaces between salty and fresh subterranean waters resulting from an extensive exploitation of water supply sources; activation of geodynamic processes associated with mining activities is determined from the data of ‘regime’ electrometric, seismometric, gravimetric, and inclinometric observations. Geophysical methods are applied widely for studying the intensification of physico-geological processes under the impact of man. A specific object of electrometric investigations is degradation of permafrost and intensification of karst processes in soluble rocks. The principal advantage of geophysical investigations lies in the possibility of creating high spatial and temporal density of observations permitting an extensive employment of statistical methods in the assessment of the impact of man on the geological medium. 相似文献
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乌溪矿区介于长江中下游多金属成矿带与华南成矿带之间,是江南造山带上的一个找矿新区.本文在这一找矿新区开展了有效的电磁方法综合勘探,试图对该区深部成矿机制进行研究.我们收集了该区的地质地球化学资料,从地质地球化学资料中分析了区域成矿背景;我们还采集了区域出露的主要岩石类型,在实验室开展物性测定,在此基础上选择了三种电磁方法开展研究区的野外测量.通过地面高精度磁测、激发极化法和可控源音频大地电磁法(CSAMT)三种地球物理方法,开展了研究区的磁化率、极化率和电阻率的分布特征研究.深入分析了地质、地球化学和地球物理三种资料与成矿的关系,相互约束,探讨成矿模型、成矿机制和成矿的可能性,推测可能的矿体赋存位置和深度范围.在地球物理研究结果基础上,结合地质和地球化学背景资料,构建了研究区的成矿动力学模型,推测了研究区成矿机制,揭示了矿区的成矿潜力.综合所得结果布设了钻孔,钻探结果揭示了研究区深部存在强烈矿化蚀变和强蚀变斑岩,初步确认为斑岩型矿床,与CSAMT剖面的解释结果基本一致,也与推测的测区内深部成矿机制相吻合.钻孔结果和地球物理结果的一致性以及对已构建的成矿动力学模型的支持,充分证明了综合电磁方法在斑岩型多金属矿床的发现和预测中的重要作用,同时斑岩型矿床的确认进一步印证了华南成矿带与俯冲作用形成的成矿带的相似性,从而推动整个华南地区的成矿地质研究. 相似文献
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通过回顾近六十年来矿井物探的发展历程,简要分析总结了国内外现有的煤矿矿井物探技术的分类与特点、研究现状与应用成果,详细介绍了主要矿井物探方法技术（矿井地震法、矿井电磁法）的研究应用新进展,提出了目前我国矿井物探技术存在的一些迫切需要解决的问题和今后的发展方向.结果表明：矿井物探是地面勘探技术的重要补充,是矿井地质工作的重要手段,它相对于常规的矿井地质手段而言,具有更准确、更快捷、更方便等特点,已成为我国煤矿现代化安全生产中必备的探测技术手段,具有广阔的发展前景. 相似文献
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D. VOGELSANG 《Geophysical Prospecting》1981,29(2):288-297
Six thousand three hundred IP measurements made in central and southern Germany have been statistically evaluated. Shapes of IP decay curves obtained in the course of routine prospecting for sulfides were characterized in the following way: three chargeabilities were recorded during the 2 s current-off time. By dividing the last by the first chargeability an “IP decay coefficient’ was calculated and statistically evaluated by means of histograms. When the histograms were compared with the statistics of apparent resistivity and chargeability, no relationship could be detected. Therefore, the histograms of M3/M1 values represent a characteristic property of distinct areas with certain geological features, mineral assemblage and tectonics. Weathering does not alter this geophysical “fingerprint”, which depends solely on geology. 相似文献
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目前地表矿、浅部矿越来越少,寻找深部盲矿体变得尤为重要.可控源音频大地电磁法（CSAMT）具有抗干扰能力强、分辨率高等特点,在探测矿产资源中已经取得了较好效果,但是通常CSAMT在矿区找深部矿时,由于在巷道上方的地表接收电磁信号会受到地面不同类型的强电磁干扰,同时由于该方法对深部矿体分辨率较低的缘故,大大影响了CSAMT的应用效果.本文尝试将CSAMT的接收系统置于巷道中,使得接收系统更加接近地下目标体,期望提高对于目标体识别的准确性,保证资源勘查的工作效率和成功率.基于积分方程法对不同类型地质模型进行了CSAMT正演模拟,并对不同模型不同深度接收的CSAMT响应特征进行了分析,同时以MARE2DEM软件模拟的二维模型响应加以验证积分方程结果的正确性.结果表明在无电磁干扰条件下,在巷道接收到的电磁场信号虽弱于地面,但其对于深部盲矿或目标体具有较强的识别度. 相似文献