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1.
Tornado shelters and the manufactured home parks market 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
Manufactured or mobile homes represent a fast growing portion of the housing market but are particularly vulnerable to tornadoes.
In the US over 40% of tornado fatalities occur in mobile homes even though they comprise about 8% of US housing units. We
examine the market for tornado shelters in manufactured home parks in Oklahoma. Almost 60% of parks in the state have shelters,
with 90% of the shelters underground. Parks with shelters are not concentrated in urban areas but spread across the state,
with parks with shelters in 32 counties. We find that rents for lots in parks with shelters are 5–8% higher, which generates
sufficient revenue to approximately pay for shelters, but the point estimate is statistically significant in only one specification.
相似文献
| Daniel Sutter (Corresponding author)Email: |
2.
This article examines the spatial dependence among housing losses due to tornadoes using data from the May 1999 Oklahoma City
tornado. In order to examine the existence of spatial dependence and its impacts on the damage analysis, we compare an estimation
based on a traditional ordinary least square model with the general spatial model. The results show that housing damage in
this disaster area is highly correlated. Monetary losses not only depend on the tornado that struck residences, but are related
to the damage magnitudes of neighboring houses. Average losses as well as the loss ratio increase with the Fujita Scale damage
rating. We conclude that the general spatial model provides unbiased estimates compared to the ordinary least square model.
In order to construct appropriate home insurance policies for tornado disasters or to improve the damage resistance capabilities
of houses, it is necessary for insurance underwriters and builders to consider spatial correlation of tornado damage.
相似文献
| Yongsheng Wang (Corresponding author)Email: |
3.
The Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and the state of Florida implemented new wind load and tie-down regulations
for manufactured homes following Hurricane Andrew. This article examines the effect of the new regulations on the likelihood
that occupants of mobile homes would survive a tornado. On February 2, 2007, three tornadoes struck central Florida, resulting
in 21 deaths in Lake County, all in manufactured homes. The deaths occurred almost exclusively in homes rated as leveled by
the county tax appraiser. Manufactured homes built to the new regulations, however, were significantly less likely to be leveled.
Regression analysis finds that manufactured homes built to the post-Andrew requirements were 79% less likely to be leveled
than homes built prior to the HUD Code in 1976, and 68% less likely to be leveled than homes built after 1976 but before the
1994 wind load regulations. Construction of all manufactured homes in the tornado paths to the wind load and tie-down requirements
could have reduced fatalities by 70%.
相似文献
| Daniel Sutter (Corresponding author)Email: |
4.
Lochhead Meredith Goldwyn Briar Venable Casie Liel Abbie B. Javernick-Will Amy 《Natural Hazards》2022,112(2):1165-1189
This study assesses the wind performance of various housing typologies representing informal construction practices in Puerto Rico to suggest modifications to enhance housing resilience in hurricanes. Based on fieldwork and interviews, the study defined four base housing typologies and possible variations in design and construction details. Each house was assessed using performance-based static wind analysis of potentially critical components. The results show that the initial governing failure mode in all base house typologies considered is roof panel loss due to tear-through at the fasteners, with subsequent governing failures being panel loss due to failures at the purlin-to-truss connections and failures of the truss-to-wall connections. In-plane wall failures and masonry uplift failures were both found to occur at much higher wind speeds than roof failures. To improve the hurricane performance, several feasible modifications are suggested, including installing hurricane straps at both the truss-to-wall and the purlin-to-truss connections, as well as improving the panel-fastener interface. In the construction of new roofs, this study found that using reduced spacing between roof members, hip roofs instead of gable roofs, and higher roof slopes leads to improved performance. These recommendations can make houses built through informal construction processes safer and more resilient to hurricanes as a form of climate adaptation.
相似文献5.
This research provides an overview and discussion of language used in tornado safety recommendations along with development of a rubric for scaled tornado safety recommendations. Residents living in affected areas and those temporarily housed at relief stations were surveyed to collect information on their experiences during a 2-week period following the April 27, 2011 Tuscaloosa, Alabama EF4 tornado. Respondents were asked about their refuge plans during the storm and about any future changes to those plans. A specific focus of this research evaluated the adequacy of each respondent’s plan. Each refuge plan was compared using a tornado refuge rubric developed through the use of enhanced Fujita (EF) scale degree of damage ratings for available damage indicators. There was a significant difference in the counts of refuge adequacy for Tuscaloosa residents when holding the locations during the April 27 tornado constant and comparing adequacy ratings for weak (EF0–EF1), strong (EF2–EF3), and violent (EF4–EF5) tornadoes. There was also a significant difference when comparing the future tornado refuge plans of those same participants to the adequacy ratings for weak, strong, and violent tornadoes. This research introduces renewed discussion on proper refuge and shelter alternatives for days when violent tornadoes are forecasted. 相似文献
6.
Weather-related disasters and affiliated losses in the USA have amplified over time. However, prior research using normalization schemes on damage tallies suggests that weather hazard losses are not necessarily rising when inflation, changes in wealth, and growth in population are accounted. This study evaluates the latter factor, assessing if population changes and a sprawling development mode have led to increasing potential for tornado disasters in the USA. Specifically, this research shows where and how quickly tornado exposure is growing by appraising spatiotemporal trends in gridded population and housing unit data for five metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). The macroscale risk to tornadoes is represented by tornado day climatology and is related to the exposure of the five MSAs, which include Atlanta, GA; Chicago, IL; Dallas/Fort Worth, TX; Oklahoma City, OK; and St. Louis, MO. Supplementing the macroscale investigation, an observationally derived, hypothetical violent tornado track is transposed on various development types in each MSA to determine the microscale changes in human and built-environment exposure. Results demonstrate increased exposure in all MSAs at both the macro- and microscale. Of the five MSAs studied, Dallas, TX, had the greatest potential for a tornado disaster due to the higher risk for tornado occurrence comingling with the amount of MSA exposure. These results reveal further that amplifying exposure is a major impetus behind intensifying severe weather impacts and losses. 相似文献
7.
Bin Pei Weichiang Pang Firat Y. Testik Nadarajah Ravichandran Fangqian Liu 《Natural Hazards》2014,74(2):375-403
Combined effects of hurricane wind and surge can pose significant threats to coastal cities. Although current design codes consider the joint occurrence of wind and surge, information on site-specific joint distributions of hurricane wind and surge along the US Coast is still sparse and limited. In this study, joint hazard maps for combined hurricane wind and surge for Charleston, South Carolina (SC), were developed. A stochastic Markov chain hurricane simulation program was utilized to generate 50,000 years of full-track hurricane events. The surface wind speeds and surge heights from individual hurricanes were computed using the Georgiou’s wind field model and the Sea, Lake and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model, respectively. To validate the accuracy of the SLOSH model, the simulated surge levels were compared to the surge levels calculated by another state-of-the-art storm surge model, ADCIRC (Advanced Circulation), and the actual observed water elevations from historical hurricane events. Good agreements were found between the simulated and observed water elevations. The model surface wind speeds were also compared with the design wind speeds in ASCE 7-10 and were found to agree well with the design values. Using the peak wind speeds and maximum surge heights, the joint hazard surfaces and the joint hazard maps for Charleston, SC, were developed. As part of this study, an interactive computer program, which can be used to obtain the joint wind speed and surge height distributions for any location in terms of latitude and longitude in Charleston area, was created. These joint hazard surfaces and hazard maps can be used in a multi-hazard design or risk assessment framework to consider the combined effects of hurricane wind and surge. 相似文献
8.
Sergey A. Arsen’yev 《地学前缘(英文版)》2011,2(2):215-221
Recent advances in modeling of tornadoes and twisters consist of significant achievements in mathematical calculation of occurrence and evolution of a violent F5-class tornado on the Fujita scale, and four-dimensional mathematical modeling of a tornado with the fourth coordinate time multiplied by its characteristic velocity.Such a tornado can arise in a thunderstorm supercell filled with turbulent whirlwinds.A theory of the squall storms is proposed.The squall storm is modeled by running perturbation of... 相似文献
9.
James B. Elsner Richard J. Murnane Thomas H. Jagger Holly M. Widen 《Mathematical Geosciences》2013,45(6):667-679
The authors illustrate a statistical point process model that uses the spatial occurrence of nonviolent tornadoes to predict the distribution of the rare, violent tornadoes that occur during springtime across the US central Great Plains. The average rate of nonviolent tornadoes is 55 per 104 km2 per 62 years which compares with an average rate of only 1.5 violent tornadoes per 104 km2 over the same period (less than 3 %). Violent tornado report density peaks at 2.6 per 104 km2 (62 yr) in the city but is only 0.7 per 104 km2 in the countryside. The risk of a violent tornado is higher by a factor of 1.5, on average, in the vicinity of less violent tornadoes after accounting for the population bias. The model for the occurrence rate of violent tornadoes indicates that rates are lower by 10.3 (3.6, 16.5) % (95 % CI) for every 1 km increase in distance from the nearest nonviolent tornado, controlling for distance from the nearest city. Model significance and the distance-from-nearest nonviolent tornado parameter are not sensitive to population threshold or the definition of a violent tornado. The authors show that the model is useful for generating a catalogue of touchdown points that can be used as a component to a tornado catastrophe model. 相似文献
10.
Gutenberg and Richter developed an empirical relation, \(\log_{10} N(M) = a - bM\), to quantify the seismicity rate of various magnitudes in a given region and time period. They found the equation fit observed data well both globally and for particular regions. In conventional G–R relation, N(M) represents an arithmetic mean. As a result, the arithmetic standard deviation cannot be explicitly incorporated in the log-linear G–R relation. Moreover, this representation is susceptible to influence of spuriously large numbers of aftershocks of major earthquake sequences. To overcome these shortcomings, we propose an alternative representation of the G–R relation in terms of the logarithmic mean annual seismicity rate and its standard deviation. We select the crustal earthquake data from 1973 to 2011, as listed in the National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) global catalog and the Central Weather Bureau (CWB) Taiwan regional catalog, to illustrate our methodology. We first show that by using the logarithmic annual seismicity rates we can significantly suppress the influences of spuriously large numbers of aftershocks following major earthquake sequences contained in the Taiwan regional catalog. More significantly, both the logarithmic mean annual seismicity rate and its standard deviation can be explicitly represented in the Gutenberg–Richter relation as follows: where log10 N represents the logarithmic annual seismicity rate. Above analytical equations are very well constrained by observed global seismicity data with \(5.0 \le M \le 7.0\) and by Taiwan seismicity data with \(3.0 \le M \le 5.0\). Both equations can be extrapolated with confidence to simultaneously estimate not only the median annual seismicity rates but also their uncertainties for large earthquakes for the first time since inception of the G–R relation. These equations can be used to improve the conventional probabilistic seismic hazard assessment by including the dispersion of the annual seismicity rate. Finally, the corresponding numerical median annual seismicity rate with its upper and lower bounds obtained from above equations for \(5.0 \le M \le 9.0\) is listed in Table 1.
相似文献
$${\text{For}}\,{\text{global}}\,{\text{crustal}}\,{\text{seismicity}}{:}\;\log_{10} N = 8.14 - 1.03M \pm (0.04M - 0.13);$$
$${\text{For}}\,{\text{Taiwan}}\;{\text{crustal}}\,{\text{seismicity}}{:}\;\log_{10} N = 5.62 - 0.90M \pm (0.02M + 0.17)$$
Table 1 Observed and estimated median annual seismicity rate and return period with their dispersions for Taiwan and global crustal earthquakes
| Magnitude | Catalog | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taiwan catalog (CWB) | Taiwan catalog (CWB) | Global catalog (NEIC) | Global catalog (NEIC) | |
| Annual rate (event/year) | Return period (year) | Annual rate (event/year) | Return period (year) | |
| M ≥ 5.0 | 24.55 13.18 7.08 | 0.041 0.076 0.14 | 1148.16 977.24 831.76 | 0.0009 0.001 0.0012 |
| M ≥ 5.5 | 8.91 4.68 2.45 | 0.11 0.21 0.41 | 367.28 298.54 242.66 | 0.0027 0.0033 0.0041 |
| M ≥ 6.0 | 3.24 1.66 0.85 | 0.31 0.60 1.18 | 117.49 91.20 70.79 | 0.0085 0.011 0.014 |
| M ≥ 6.5 | 1.17 0.59 0.30 | 0.85 1.69 3.33 | 37.58 27.86 20.65 | 0.027 0.036 0.048 |
| M ≥ 7.0 | 0.43 0.21 0.10 | 2.33 4.76 10.0 | 12.02 8.51 6.03 | 0.083 0.12 0.17 |
| M ≥ 7.5 | 0.15 0.074 0.036 | 6.67 13.51 27.78 | 3.85 2.60 1.76 | 0.26 0.38 0.57 |
| M ≥ 8.0 | 0.056 0.026 0.012 | 17.86 38.46 83.33 | 1.23 0.79 0.51 | 0.81 1.27 1.96 |
| M ≥ 8.5 | 0.020 0.009 0.004 | 50.00 111.11 250.0 | 0.39 0.24 0.15 | 2.56 4.17 6.67 |
| M ≥ 9.0 | 0.0074 0.0033 0.0015 | 135.14 303.03 666.67 | 0.13 0.074 0.04 | 7.69 13.51 25.00 |
11.
Sex offenders are currently a major focus of crime control policies at the local, regional, state and federal levels throughout
the United States. In part, the perceived threat of offender recidivism has motivated legislators to launch stringent community
notification programs and to establish spatial restriction zones (SRZs) around schools, daycare facilities and public parks.
The purpose of these restriction zones is to help protect children and minimize their exposure to convicted sex offenders
living in the community. In addition to the concern that the implementation of SRZs dramatically reduces viable housing options
for registered sex offenders, there are concerns that offenders will be forced to reside in socially disorganized areas that
may encourage recidivism. The purpose of this paper is to explore the demographic and socioeconomic differences between areas
inside and outside SRZs. Implications of these results for sex offender policies are discussed.
相似文献
| Tony H. GrubesicEmail: |
12.
Post-Bam earthquake: recovery and reconstruction 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
This paper gives a brief explanation of the earthquake in Bam. It also reports on the rescue and relief operations, including
the construction of emergency shelters and temporary housing, and on the country’s plan for the reconstruction of the city,
which includes debris removal, the rebuilding of rural and urban residential and commercial units, the reconstruction of state
and public buildings and public facilities such as schools, rural and urban water aqueducts and grids, the construction of
a sewage system, power network and telecommunication system, the provision of water to orchards and farmlands, the renovation
of industries and the revival of the cultural heritage, particularly the historical Bam citadel, among others. We also report
briefly on the effect of the Bam earthquake on the Iran Earthquake Risk Reduction Strategy and actions.
相似文献
| Mohsen Ghafory-AshtianyEmail: |
13.
In a media saturated world of globalization, information flow and knowledge economies, an interesting paradox exists: geographic
literacy appears to be on the decline while geographic information is on the rise. In this introduction to a collection of
essays on geographies of the media, we explore this paradox and use Baudrillard’s (1994) work on Simulacra and Simulation to argue that increased mediated information does not produce more meaning, but rather leads to a catastrophe of meaning
and the medium. Drawing from McLuhan’s axiom, “the medium is the message,” we posit that with more mediated information there
is less meaningful information and as such we need to address geographic media literacy as a primary mode through which to
address geographic literacy.
相似文献
| Jim CraineEmail: |
14.
This paper investigates the impact ash fall would have on dairy farming, based on a study of ‘Tulachard’, a dairy farming
operation at Rerewhakaaitu, North Island, New Zealand. It includes analysis of the potential effects on the dairy shed and
milking machine, electrical supply and distribution, water supply and distribution, tractors and other farm vehicles, farm
buildings (haysheds, pump sheds, implement sheds, etc.), milk-tanker access to the farm and critical needs of dairy cows and
farm to keep milking. One of the most vulnerable areas identified in the study was the cooling of milk at the milking shed,
pending dairy tanker pick-up. The cooling system’s condenser is exposed to the atmosphere and falling ash would make it highly
vulnerable. Laboratory testing with wet and dry ash was conducted to determine its resilience to ash ingestion. It was found
to perform satisfactorily during dry testing, but during wet testing significant clogging/blocking of the condenser’s radiator
occurred, dramatically reducing airflow through the condenser. Specific mitigation recommendations have been developed that
include cleaning with compressed air and adapting farm management techniques to lessen usage of the condenser during an ash-fall
event. Specific recommendations for management of dairy farm operation are given to mitigate the effects of an ash-fall event.
相似文献
| James W. ColeEmail: |
15.
Ethnic coexistence in a pluralistic campus environment 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Emile Kok-Kheng Yeoh 《GeoJournal》2006,66(3):223-241
In Malaysia, ethnic segregation seems to have grown more and more pronounced at all levels of education, which may have in
the main contributed to increasing occupational segregation by ethnicity when the graduates left to join the job market. Such
trends may be disturbing given the effort the country has put in to promote interethnic understanding and reduce interethnic
economic disparity since 1970. By critically investigating the dynamics of ethnic coexistence in the microcosm of the university
campus environment, this paper provides statistical evidence to show how far the country has progressed in terms of ethnic
relations since the watershed events of May 13, 1969; to what extent Malaysian multiethnic society is different now compared
to the unmistakable racial “corporateness” and interethnic “separateness” that Furnivall observed in his classic study of
1948; and in what ways ethnic relations have been reshaped by three decades of affirmative action policies and the form of
ethnic democracy adapted for this unique society.
相似文献
| Emile Kok-Kheng YeohEmail: |
16.
Stanley A. Changnon 《Natural Hazards》2011,59(2):1175-1187
High winds are one of the nation’s leading damage-producing storm conditions. They do not include winds from tornadoes, winter
storms, nor hurricanes, but are strong winds generated by deep low pressure centers, by thunderstorms, or by air flow over
mountain ranges. The annual average property and crop losses in the United States from windstorms are $379 million and windstorms
during 1959–1997 caused an average of 11 deaths each year. Windstorms range in size from a few hundred to hundreds of thousands
square kilometers, being largest in the western United States where 40% of all storms exceed 135,000 km2. In the eastern United States, windstorms occur at a given location, on average, 1.4 times a year, whereas in the western
US point averages are 1.9. Midwestern states average between 15 and 20 wind storms annually; states in the east average between
10 and 25 storms per year; and West Coast states average 27–30 storms annually. Storms causing insured property losses >$379 million and windstorms
during 1959–1997 caused an average of 11 deaths each year. Windstorms range in size from a few hundred to hundreds of thousands
square kilometers, being largest in the western United States where 40% of all storms exceed 135,000 km2. In the eastern United States, windstorms occur at a given location, on average, 1.4 times a year, whereas in the western
US point averages are 1.9. Midwestern states average between 15 and 20 wind storms annually; states in the east average between
10 and 25 storms per year; and West Coast states average 27–30 storms annually. Storms causing insured property losses >1
million, labeled catastrophes, during 1952–2006 totaled 176, an annual average of 3.2. Catastrophic windstorm losses were
highest in the West and Northwest climate regions, the only form of severe weather in the United States with maximum losses
on the West Coast. Most western storms occurred in the winter, a result of Pacific lows, and California has had 31 windstorm
catastrophes, more than any other state. The national temporal distribution of catastrophic windstorms during 1952–2006 has
a flat trend, but their losses display a distinct upward trend with time, peaking during 1996–2006. 相似文献
17.
Issaka Kanton Osumanu 《GeoJournal》2007,68(4):343-355
The Tamale Metropolitan Area (TMA), as a low-income city in a heavily indebted poor country, is at the first stage of the
urban environmental transition where most of the environmental problems tend to occur close to the home. Some of the more
severe household environmental problems are poor housing, inadequate potable water supply, unsanitary conditions, uncollected
garbage, indoor air pollution and pest infestation. Those usually exposed to these environmental burdens are the less wealthy
households who have benefited less from development planning and infrastructure provision. Using questionnaire survey and
focus group discussions, this study explored the environmental anxieties of households in the metropolis. A stratified sample
of residential areas of the city was employed, and the study is able to examine city-wide disparities. The results indicate
that problems of water supply are the concern of all groups. Sanitation and garbage disposal services are problems faced mainly
by the poor in low-income areas. Other problems faced by the poor are overcrowding, indoor air pollution and pest infestation,
but these problems are not highlighted by the poor reflecting a misplaced lack of concern for these problem areas and ignorance
of the health risks posed by these hazards. The finding suggests a considerable demand for improvements in environmental service
provision and a general willingness to pay for such improvements.
相似文献
| Issaka Kanton OsumanuEmail: |
18.
Over the past several decades, consumers in the global North have increasingly looked to fair or alternative trading systems
as a means to promote ecologically and socially sustainable agricultural production. While fair trade has historically been
limited to international commodity networks, US-based agro-food activists have recently turned their attentions towards building
a domestic movement, to bring fair trade principles and standards ‘home.’ Through an exploration of this growing movement,
we consider the potential for third party certification and labeling to incorporate social justice into US-based agricultural
production, with a particular focus on the implications for farm workers. We view current efforts to bring the principles
of fair trade to the domestic arena as a reflection of several interrelated developments: a growing need on the part of small
and mid-sized farmers to garner price premiums due to the erosion of the organic price premium; a recognition of the failure
of organic certification to advance a holistic vision of sustainability; and the strategic embrace of voluntary regulatory
mechanisms as an alternative to public regulation and collective bargaining. Initial research suggests that this has led to
particular framings of the domestic fair trade concept, which may undermine the movement’s ability to address the social relations
of agro-food production. Specifically, prioritization of the ‘family-scale’ farm and an undercurrent of food localism may
obscure farm workers’ role in valorizing the US agricultural landscape.
相似文献
| Christy GetzEmail: |
19.
John Finn 《GeoJournal》2009,74(3):191-200
After more than three decades of isolation from the West and a paralyzing economic crisis in the early 1990s, Cuba is increasingly
globally active in both cultural and economic realms. In this paper I use Bourdieu’s (The fields of cultural production, 1993)
fields of cultural production as a general frame through with to inspect the commercialization of Cuban music. Through a case
study with Juan de Marcos Gonzalez, the creator of the Buena Vista Social Club, I explore the dialectical relationship of
music as an expression of cultural and a cultural asset, and at the same time a commodity for the international market. I
show that de Marcos uses his position between the international music industry and the local music scene in order to preserve
cultural authenticity and survive economically. In doing so he challenges the all-to-typical place of the artist in the contested
space of cultural production between the West and the Third World.
相似文献
| John FinnEmail: |
20.
We focus on Swiss earthquakes in antiquity and the early medieval period before A.D. 1000. We have information on less than
half a dozen earthquakes within this era, since written records for the first half of the first millennium A.D. are minimal,
and there is little hope of finding more written evidence for earthquakes. Furthermore, interpreting the documents at hand
is somewhat complex. For the 6th century Gregory of Tours in Historia Francorum gives hints of a rockslide near the castle Tauredunum (Le Grammont) in the Swiss canton Valais, an event that has been considered in the literature as caused by an earthquake. The Carolingian period (ca. 750–950) included the rise of some very important cultural centers in various parts of today’s Switzerland. For
instance, the ecclesiastical culture in St. Gallen generated a remarkable number of written records, which survived for our
use in a unique manner. From the 9th and 10th centuries, we have evidence for earthquakes in the years 849, 867, 902, and
944. However, information on them remains so scarce that their location and intensity are generally difficult to assess. Nevertheless,
the finding of a new document - a memoir written by the abbot of Reichenau - offers some insight into the A.D. 849 event and
its reportedly aftershocks.
相似文献
| Monika GislerEmail: |